Equity Risk Research Articles

Seasonal affective disorder and currency markets

AbstractHarry Markowitz is known as the grandfather of behavioral finance based on his 1952 work on utility theory. We study a behavioral issue applied to the currency market: seasonal affective disorder (SAD). As the days grow shorter (longer) in fall (spring), investors become more (less) risk averse due to changes in depression related to SAD. Our empirical results are consistent with changes in risk-taking in global equities and the associated change in currency hedging portfolios. In the spring/summer season of long daylight hours, we find evidence of greater short positions for the euro. This is consistent with investors taking more risk in global equities and adding to their currency shorts to hedge the FX exposure. Such changes in euro holdings are reversed in the season of shorter daylight hours, consistent with risky investments being reduced due to greater risk aversion so currency hedges are reduced. For currency returns, we find that the greater shorting in spring–summer is associated with currency depreciation over the season of long days. In the season of short days, currency buying associated with cutting hedging positions leads to currency appreciation. We find that the SAD influence on seasonal currency returns is much like the evidence for equity returns. Finally, we construct and backtest a SAD-inspired currency portfolio. We find that trading the spring/summer risk-on SAD effect from longer days and recovery from SAD-related depression had a decent positive risk-adjusted performance and displayed fairly consistent performance over time.

Optimal asset allocation and nonlinear return predictability from the dividend-price ratio

AbstractWe study non-linear predictability of stock returns arising from the dividend-price ratio and its implications for asset allocation decisions. Using data from five countries — U.S., U.K., France, Germany and Japan — we find empirical evidence supporting non-linear and time-varying models for the equity risk premium. Building on this, we examine several model specifications that can account for non-linear return predictability, including Markov switching models, regression trees, random forests and neural networks. Although in-sample return regressions and portfolio allocation results support the use of non-linear predictability models, the out-of-sample evidence is notably weaker, highlighting the difficulty in exploiting non-linear predictability in real time.

Research on Dynamic Evaluation Method of Tourist Destination Accessibility Based on Interpretive Structure Model

Because of its core role in the process of tourism, tourism destination has always been the focus of discussion among the industry, but the comprehensive evaluation of tourism destination is rarely mentioned. This paper selects tourism destination as the focus of investigation, gives the evaluation method of tourism destination, adapts to the trend of tourism modernization, and discusses the quantifiable model of tourism destination evaluation. This paper first selects several tourism destinations as samples, collects and combs the information related to spatial equity of tourism destinations, and determines the main problem categories of spatial equity of tourism destinations. Then, through the summary of relevant data and case analysis, a framework of tourism target accessibility risk factors is formed. At the same time, considering the interaction between risk factors, we then give a method to determine the weight that can improve granular computing. First, we use this method to obtain the quotient space family with hierarchical characteristics through the similarity relationship between data, and then we can calculate the importance of each feature in the quotient space family, so as to obtain the corresponding weight between different influence indexes. Finally, the paper takes the tourism destination spatial equity problem as the main research goal, and through the dynamic evaluation of the tourism destination spatial equity risk impact structure using the interpretive structure model, and describes the schematic diagram of its impact structure, so as to find out the direct, source, process and other factors that cause the problem.

Dynamic Spillovers from US (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy to African Equity Markets: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness and Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Since the implementation of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the US in response to the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been increasing concerns that these forward guidance and quantitative easing programmes have had spillover effects on global equity markets. We specifically question whether the implementation of these UMPs have had spillovers to African equities, which have been previously speculated to be decoupled from global markets and shocks. Time-varying-parameter (TVP) frequency connectedness and wavelet coherency methods were used to examine the dynamic time-frequency spillovers between daily time series of the US shadow short rate and African equities returns/volatility between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2023. On one hand, the TVP frequency connectedness analysis reveals robust long-run spillovers from US monetary policy to African equity markets during specific periods: 2009, 2013, 2020, and 2021. These coincide with instances when the Federal Reserve announced their transition from conventional to unconventional monetary practices and vice versa. On the other hand, the wavelet analysis provides insights into the ‘sign’ of the spillovers, indicating mixed phase dynamics during UMPs responding to the GFC. In contrast, anti-phase or negative co-movements characterize UMPs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic, implying that these policies increased both returns and volatilities to African equities. Altogether, we conclude that US UMP has increasing deteriorated market efficiency and amplified portfolio risk in African equities whilst during ‘normalization’ periods US monetary policy has little transmission effect.

Commodity tail risk and equity risk premia

Commodity tail risk and equity risk premia

Impact of Sharia‐Based Screening on Equity Risk: International Evidence

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the impact of mainstream Sharia‐based screening methodologies on equity risk. The study is based on the daily returns of 23 pairs of stock indices belonging to different index providers, namely Dow Jones, FTSE, and S&P. For risk measurement, the study uses five Value at Risk (VaR) methods. Moreover, the conditional VaR (CVaR) is used to analyze the tail behavior of return distributions. The results show that Sharia‐based screening is a source of significant differences in risk. There is strong evidence that Islamic stock indices (ISIs) tend to be less risky than their conventional peers. Also, the screening process allows for keeping extreme negative returns at a lower level relative to unscreened indices. The analysis during the Dotcom and Subprime crises shows that, globally, the results are time‐invariant. In sum, Islamic screening is tantamount to prudential rules that lead to low‐risk portfolios; it is, in its essence, a risk‐reduction strategy. Findings suggest that Sharia‐compliant stocks would be of great attractiveness to risk‐averse investors. They will find their claim in this asset class, as its riskiness is relatively low. For banks, a lower VaR of Islamic investing implies fewer capital requirements for market risk when holding portfolios that include Sharia‐compliant stocks. Fewer capital requirements will enhance the banks' ability to invest and make profits, which will, in turn, result in reducing the cost of capital.

Vertical acquisition and carbon capture and storage choices under cap-and-trade regulation with sustainable finance

In this paper, we establish a contingent claim framework for environmental management. The paper focuses on the vertical acquisition of a supply chain in the context of sustainable insurance (i.e., sustainable finance), specifically considering carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology choices and cap-and-trade regulations. The main results are as follows. Firstly, a more stringent cap-and-trade scheme increases equity efficiency in sustainable insurance, particularly when the green upstream manufacturer with advanced CCS technology acquires the brown downstream manufacturer, which also uses advanced CCS technology. Secondly, it harms risk efficiency, especially when the green upstream manufacturer with backward CCS technology acquires the brown downstream manufacturer, which uses advanced CCS technology. Thirdly, it increases the default risk in the insurer's equity, especially when the green upstream manufacturer with backward CCS technology acquires the brown downstream manufacturer, which also uses backward CCS technology. Overall, cap-and-trade's effects on equity and risk efficiency in vertical acquisition and default risk in insurer's equity within sustainable insurance depend on adopting CCS technology. Policymakers should incentivize advanced CCS technologies in vertical acquisitions to enhance equity and reduce default risks, supporting long-term financial stability and environmental sustainability toward Sustainable Development Goals.

Monetary policy and equity returns: The role of investor risk aversion

AbstractThis article examines the role of investor risk aversion in the transmission of monetary policy to stock returns based on U.S. data. Our results show that following an expansionary monetary policy shock, investor risk aversion falls, leading to a decrease in the equity risk premium and an increase in equity returns. Moreover, the returns of high‐beta stocks increase much more than those of low‐beta stocks. Finally, we investigate the mechanism through mutual fund flows. We find that high‐beta funds attract greater inflows in response to lower interest rates, and there is a positive relationship between fund returns and flows. Our findings have policy implications for financial stability.

Impact of political risk on emerging market risk premiums and risk adjusted returns

Researchers have observed the political risk, sign paradox whereby a decrease in political risk is associated with an increase in stock market returns. This apparent contradiction may be driven by a few political risk factors or perhaps certain emerging market (EM) countries. This paper examines this issue by assessing how key political risk components impact equity risk premiums and risk adjusted returns among EM countries. Using monthly stock market return data for 28 EM countries from 2000 to 2019, we segment countries into high and low political risk groups to explore heterogeneous effects. We find that improvements in political risk increase risk adjusted returns by lowering the volatility of returns. Differences were also found between EM countries with improvements in government stability leading to higher risk adjusted returns among high political risk EM countries. In contrast for low political risk countries, democracy was found to have a negative effect on equity premiums, while law and order and investment profile have a positive impact. Finally, our results suggest key political risk subcomponents, such as investment profile and corruption, impact risk adjusted returns during times of financial crisis.

Assessing the impact of climate policies on equity risk under sustainable insurance: Cap-and-trade regulation, energy-saving technology subsidies, and carbon tariffs

The paper presents a capped-call option framework for climate policies, highlighting cap-and-trade regulation, energy-saving technology subsidies, and carbon tariffs. It involves a life insurer providing green finance to a carbon-intensive manufacturer, examining their procurement of carbon allowances and export activities under cap-and-trade and carbon tariff systems, respectively. The main results reveal that manufacturer exports increase manufacturer equity risk, while stricter cap policies partially mitigate this effect, especially with higher carbon tariffs. Conversely, elevated carbon tariffs directly amplify manufacturer equity risk, but this is alleviated somewhat by a stricter cap-and-trade system. Energy-saving technology subsidies reduce manufacturer equity risk. Higher exports are associated with reduced insurer equity, while a stricter cap-and-trade regime enhances insurer equity, particularly with higher carbon tariffs. Carbon tariffs positively impact insurer equity, whereas subsidies for energy-saving technology for manufacturers have a negative effect. In the paper, the integration of both mechanisms within a capped-call option framework can advance sustainability efforts and help mitigate financial risks for the carbon manufacturer and the fund-providing insurer. This alignment corresponds with the objectives of environmental responsibility and economic stability in the face of climate change challenges.

Utility-implied term structures of equity risk premia

The fundamental asset pricing problem is extended to the frequency domain for commonly used utility functional forms. For each class of utility functions, closed-form solutions are presented for the term structure of the equity risk premium. The term structure is flat for time separable one-period utility and uncorrelated external habit formation utility, downward sloping for internal habit formation utility, upward sloping for time preference (recursive) utility, and can be upward sloping, downward sloping, or flat for production-based utility. These results suggest how observed risk premium term structures can be mapped to linear time series models consistent with utility preference classes.

The risk and return of equity and credit index options

We develop a structural credit risk model, which allows us to price equity/credit indices and their options through the asset dynamics of index constituents. We estimate the model via MLE and find that equity and credit index option prices are well explained out-of-sample. Contrary to recent empirical findings, the two option markets are not inconsistently priced through the lens of our model. Returns on both options, while extreme, do not indicate any evidence of mispricing. Our analysis suggests that jointly addressing the pricing of various instruments requires properly attributing three different sources of systematic risk: asset, variance, and jump risks.

On the sources of the aggregate risk premium: Risk aversion, bubbles or regime-switching?

We develop and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model that uses historical US financial data and assumes recursive utility, allowing for priced regime-switching risk and intrinsic bubbles. We also estimate several restricted versions, including only a subset of these features. Priced regime-switching risk is essential to the equity risk premium, explaining more than fifty per cent of it. Furthermore, a model that does not consider regime switching would overestimate the public's risk aversion, mistakenly assigning the observed risk premium to high-risk aversion instead of priced regime-switching. We also find that intrinsic bubbles are statistically significant, and even though they are not crucial in explaining the risk premium, they substantially improve the model's fit at the end of the sample.

Is gold a preferable diversifier of cleaner equity risk across diverse scenarios? Evidence from multidimensional connectedness and spillover measures

The study aims to explore the risk management potential of historical (gold and crude oil) and modern (bitcoin) assets against the shocks in clean energy stocks. Specifically, the quest related to which asset(s)? In what proportion? In which market condition? and for what time preference? should be held with cleaner equity. The exploration is based on the presumptions that conventional and cleaner stocks are alike and that financial markets (assets) have an asymmetric interdependence. We also assume that the interdependence among the considered markets is driven by various events over time and distinct investment horizons. To that end, we employ a generalized vector autoregressive-based overall, time-varying, asymmetric, and frequency-based connectedness measures and DCC-GARCH model to the daily data ranging from October 15, 2014 to April 12, 2023. The spillovers across the considered markets confirm the similarity of conventional and cleaner stocks and the asymmetry hypothesis, suggesting that downside shock transmission (bad spillovers) outperforms upside shock transmission (good spillovers). The time-varying results suggest that connectedness among the considered markets is higher, and asymmetric during Brexit-2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and the monetary policy tightening of 2022 and 2023. Finally, we show that gold is a preferable diversifier of cleaner equity risk on average, during distress events, downside markets, and across all investment horizons. The study has implications for financial market participants to strategically manage the cleaner equity risk with gold in diverse market scenarios.

The impact of the Bank of Japan’s exchange traded fund and corporate bond purchases on firms’ capital structure

AbstractThis study examines how the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) exchange-traded fund (ETF) and corporate bond (CB) purchases affect the capital structure of Japanese listed firms. The results first suggest that the BOJ’s ETF purchases reduced the equity risk premium for firms included in the purchases, thereby lowering their cost of equity. These firms issued more stocks and became less dependent on bond debt and bank loans than control firms, resulting in a lower level of leverage. On the other hand, the BOJ’s CB purchases lowered the risk premium of bonds eligible for such purchases, which implies a decline in the cost of bond debt. Firms eligible for CB purchases issued more bonds, while reducing bank debt but to a smaller extent, thus having higher leverage than firms not eligible for CB purchases. Categorizing firms into four groups based on whether their stocks were included in ETF purchases and/or their bonds were eligible for CB purchases further shows that the policy impacts on firm financing have differed depending on which group a firm fell in. These results indicate that the BOJ’s ETF and CB purchases have had a considerable impact on the cost of capital, securities issuance activities, and corporate capital structure.

Term structure of equity risk premia in rough terrain: 150 years of the French stock market

We implement a state-space modeling to capture jointly the one-year and infinite horizons equity risk premia (ERPs) over a secular period in France. Expected stock returns are represented by mixing traditional expectation processes, expected variances are from GARCHX models and risk prices are stochastic state variables estimated using the Kalman filter method. Represented by the spread between long-and short-term ERPs, the term structure strongly varies over time exhibiting a dominant downward sloping. Both expected variances and risk prices are highly at play in determining the ERPs term structure, the effects of restraints on borrowing and of international stock market contagion completing the explanation. Overall, our modeling provides rather similar results using US data. We finally show that the French ERPs term structure varies with the economic cycle, the cost of capital and the liquidity preference.

Bitcoin vs. gold: the impact of liquidity on equity risk diversification

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of market liquidity on Bitcoin’s diversification performance against global equity risk, using gold as a comparative benchmark. By using hourly data to construct the liquidity measures, our findings suggest that an increase in Bitcoin’s market liquidity significantly enhances Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a diversifier relative to gold.

Risk Management Analysis and Investment Strategy on Forex Online Trading

<span lang="EN-US">The purpose of this study is to analyze risk management and investment strategies in Forex Online Trading. The method used in this study is a qualitative method with a descriptive description. Data collection techniques using qualitative analysis. The results show that risk management in Forex Online Trading can be reviewed through risks that can be reached by traders, as well as market risks that cannot be reached by traders. The first risk can be reviewed through total equity risk and trading position risk, while market risk can be reviewed through portfolio diversification, understanding price changes and volatility, and understanding leverage and margin. An investment strategy in Forex Online Trading can be considered through four types of methods, namely the Martingale trading strategy, the Trading by News strategy, and the Pending Order strategy.</span>

Neobanks in emerging markets: a risk assessment

Neobanks have risen as popular digital challengers to incumbent banks, especially in emerging markets (EMs) where the banking sector is often characterized by oligopolies. This article first estimates the value of Nubank and StoneCo in Brazil, two of the fastest-growing neobanks in Brazil. Normalizing revenue growth assumptions from their financial data, valuation models uncover that Nubank could be overvalued by about two times, whereas StoneCo could be undervalued by 80% of its fair value, as of March 19, 2024. This article then discusses firm-specific (high cumulative net operating losses, low long-term operating margins, high borrowing costs) and adherent macroeconomic (political uncertainty, foreign exchange risks, high equity risk premia) risks in EMs that explain the volatility in Nubank’s and StoneCo’s stock prices. These risks are instructive for understanding the challenges facing the business model of neobanks in EMs.

The Network Factor of Equity Pricing: A Signed Graph Laplacian Approach

Abstract The connections among firms exhibit heterogeneity, complexity, and dynamism, posing a challenge for traditional unsigned network models. This article proposes a signed graph Laplacian approach to construct a dynamic network index (DNI), quantifying the aggregate changes in the market network over time. A larger DNI indicates more significant changes in firms’ interconnectedness and in the market network structure. Firms with higher sensitivity to DNI exhibit lower expected returns. Incorporating DNI into conventional asset pricing models improves return predictability. Results are robust for multiple estimators, various factor models, and different selections of test assets. Our findings suggest that the network factor generates a significant equity risk premium.