Equilibrium Real Interest Rate Research Articles

Declining real interest rates: The role of energy prices in energy importers

This study investigates whether the upward trend in real energy prices since the 1990s can account for the decreasing trend in real interest rates in energy-importing countries. By estimating dynamic panel data models, I first provide empirical evidence that a rise in real energy prices leads to falls in real interest rates and aggregate consumption in energy-importing OECD member countries. Using a life-cycle model, I show that the increasing trend in real energy prices decreased the equilibrium real interest rate by about 1.4 percentage points between 1990 and 2018. The mechanism for this effect is as follows: As a result of the increases in the real energy price, energy consumption falls, dampening the consumption of manufactured goods because of the complementarity in consumption between energy and manufactured goods. Accordingly, aggregate consumption declines, putting downward pressure on the real interest rate. Moreover, the increased real energy price decreases energy input in production, raising the capital/energy ratio and inducing a lower real interest rate via a fall in the marginal product of capital. Through a simulation, I also demonstrate that increases in the real energy price had a greater influence on the declining real interest rate in energy-importing countries during 1990–2018, compared to population aging.

Inflation, interest rates and the predictability of stock returns

This paper focuses on the predictive role of inflation and interest rates in forecasting stock returns. We report economically significant in-sample evidence that stock returns are predictable using cyclical components of inflation and interest rates. The out-of-sample analysis results show that these cyclical components have reasonable out-of-sample predictability for the equity risk premium when the comparison is made against a historical average benchmark. We believe this is due to the fact that both inflation and interest rates contain stochastic trends. Accounting for changes in trend inflation (and equilibrium real interest rate) is essential for forecasting stock returns.

A Generalized Interest Rates Model with Scaling

The article introduces scaling and generalizes the Taylor (1993) interest rate rule from four terms to seven terms. The three additional terms are the deviation in money supply, the deviation in money velocity, and the deviation in unemployment rate. The four original terms are the inflation rate, the equilibrium real interest rate, the deviation in inflation rate, and the deviation in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The weights for the seven terms are estimated via the monthly January 1, 1959 - March 31, 2022 US data. All the seven combinations of the Taylor (1993) rule, the Quantity Equation (Friedman, 1970), and the Phillips (1958) curve with scaling give substantially better results than both Taylor (1993, 1999) rules without scaling. The Phillips (1958) curve is best when choosing only one rule with scaling. Combining the Taylor (1993) rule and the Phillips (1958) curve is best when choosing among two rules with scaling.

Non‐standard monetary policy measures in non‐normal times

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of long-term sovereign-bond purchases by the central bank in an economy that is likely to be characterized by a low equilibrium real interest rate and a non-negligible probability of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the monetary-policy rate. Our analysis is based on simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model for the euro area. The main results are the following. First, long-term sovereign-bond purchases reacting to a positive inflation gap help stabilize macroeconomic conditions when the monetary-policy rate hits the ZLB. Second, these purchases are an effective stabilization tool following positive shocks to the sovereign term premium and negative shocks to aggregate demand. Third, to stabilize the effects of expansionary demand shocks, the central bank can increase the monetary-policy rate according to an ‘aggressive’ Taylor rule, instead of selling long-term sovereign bonds.

Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates

ABSTRACT Empirical estimates of equilibrium real interest rates are so far mostly limited to advanced economies, since no statistical procedure suitable for a larger set of countries is available. This is surprising, as equilibrium rates have strong policy implications in emerging markets and developing economies as well. Current estimates of the global equilibrium rate rely on only a few countries but estimates for a more diverse set of countries can improve understanding of its dynamics and drivers. This paper uses a model and estimation strategy that decompose ex-ante real interest rates into permanent and transitory components even with short samples and high volatility. This is done with an unobserved component local level stochastic volatility model, which is used to estimate equilibrium rates for 50 countries with Bayesian methods. Equilibrium rates were lower in emerging markets and developing economies than in advanced economies in the 1980s, similar in the 1990s, and have been higher since 2000. In line with economic integration and rising global capital markets, synchronization has been rising over time and is higher among advanced economies. Equilibrium rates of countries with stronger trade linkages and similar demographic and economic trends are more synchronized.

Revisiting intertemporal elasticity of substitution in a sticky price model

Macroeconomic models typically assume additively separable preferences where consumption enters the utility function in a logarithmic form. This restriction implies that consumption growth is highly sensitive to movements in real interest rates, which in turn implies an unrealistically steep demand curve and intertemporal trade-off. We re-estimate the stylized New Keynesian Model with US data using King et al. (1988) preferences with and without habits and show that the equilibrium real interest rate elasticity of output is in the range of 0.05–0.20 in the US. Such low real interest rate elasticity is better in line with the empirical consumption Euler equation literature and implies relatively weak transmission of monetary policy to output and inflation.

Equilibrium real interest rates in Brazil: Convergence at last, but not quite

Real interest rates in Brazil converged to zero in 2020, but increased again in 2021. This paper aims to measure the equilibrium interest rate to assess the stance of monetary policy. We calculate this latent variable using different methodologies, including a version of Laubach and Williams (2003) with fiscal and credit variables. Based on this approach, the long-run equilibrium rate is in the range of 2-4%, depending on the output gap and risk scenario. Our sensitivity analysis shows that results change slightly in different scenarios of Brazil risk premium and US interest rate. Since 2019, the effective real rate is significantly below the neutral rate and slightly below the Taylor rate, indicating an expansionary monetary policy, but since 2021 is back in a contractionary mode.

Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as reflected in negative biases in inflation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to inflation targeting, we find that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-inflation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound.

Declining Real Interest Rates: The Role of Energy Prices in Energy Importers

This paper studies whether the upward trend of real energy prices since the 1990s can account for the decreasing trend of real interest rates in energy importers. Using VARs, I first provide empirical evidence that a rise in real energy prices leads to a fall in real interest rate in energy-importing G-7 countries. I then show, using a life-cycle model, that the increasing trend of the real energy price decreases the equilibrium real interest rate by about 1.5 percentage points between 1990 and 2018. Due to increases in the real energy price, energy consumption falls, which dampens consumption of manufactures because of the complementarity between energy and manufactures in consumption. Accordingly, aggregate consumption goes down, which puts downward pressure on the real interest rate. Moreover, the increased real energy price decreases energy inputs in production, and hence capital/energy ratio rises, inducing lower real interest rate via falls in the marginal product of capital. By simulating the model, I also find that increases in the real energy price have more influences on the declining real interest rate in energy importers during 1990-2018 than population aging.

The Ecb's Price Stability Framework: Past Experience, and Current and Future Challenges

The ECB’s price stability mandate has been defined by the Treaty. But the Treaty has not spelled out what price stability precisely means. To make the mandate operational, the Governing Council has provided a quantitative definition in 1998 and a clarification in 2003. The landscape has changed notably compared to the time the strategy review was originally designed. At the time, the main concern of the Governing Council was to anchor inflation at low levels in face of the inflationary history of the previous decades. Over the last decade economic conditions have changed dramatically: the persistent low-inflation environment has created the concrete risk of de-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations. Addressing low inflation is different from addressing high inflation. The ability of the ECB (and central banks globally) to provide the necessary accommodation to maintain price stability has been tested by the lower bound on nominal interest rates in the context of the secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate. Against this backdrop, this report analyses: the ECB’s performance as measured against its formulation of price stability; whether it is possible to identify a preferred level of steady-state inflation on the basis of optimality considerations; advantages and disadvantages of formulating the objective in terms of a focal point or a range, or having both; whether the medium-term orientation of the ECB’s policy can serve as a mechanism to cater for other considerations; how to strengthen, in the presence of the lower bound, the ECB’s leverage on private-sector expectations for inflation and the ECB’s future policy actions so that expectations can act as ‘automatic stabilisers’ and work alongside the central bank. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58

Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as reflected in negative biases in inflation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to inflation targeting, we find that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-inflation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound.

Macroeconomic Stabilisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as reflected in negative biases in inflation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to inflation targeting, we find that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-inflation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound.

R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia

The aim of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium real interest rate in Slovakia by means of a semi-structural unobserved components model. The equilibrium real interest rate is understood here as a short-term, risk-free real interest rate consistent with output at its potential level, and inflation at its target level after the effect of all cyclical shocks have disappeared. Contribution to the literature is in two ways: i) development of a modelling framework for small, open, and converging economies which can be used for other transition economies, and (ii) assessment of the adoption of the euro and its effect on the equilibrium real interest rate. Based on the estimates, the equilibrium real interest rate fell from the positive pre-euro (also pre-crisis) level into to the negative territory.

Monetary Policy Strategies and Tools: Financial Stability Considerations

This paper examines potential interactions between financial stability and the monetary policy strategies and tools considered in the Federal Reserve’s review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. Achieving the Federal Reserve’s goals of full employment and price stability promotes financial stability. A key concern, however, is that with a low equilibrium real interest rate, a low policy rate will be necessary, and in turn, these low rates may contribute to an increase in financial system vulnerabilities. Our analysis suggests that there are typically significant macroeconomic and financial stability benefits of using these tools and strategies, but there are plausible situations in which financial vulnerabilities are such that it would be desirable to limit their use. A clear communications strategy can help minimize financial vulnerabilities. Should vulnerabilities arise, they are often best addressed with macroprudential tools.

Financial Liberalization, Financial Development, and Macroeconomic Risks in an Open Economy

In an open economy with endogenous risks, financial development and capital account liberalization reduce the volatilities of home equity and bond prices, and appreciate the home currency at the stochastic steady state. Financial development lowers the equilibrium real interest rate when exchange rate floats and increases it when exchange rate is fixed. Capital account liberalization increases the real rate in both exchange rate regimes. Monetary policy should be countercyclical to the volatilities of home equity and bond prices, and procyclical to the volatilities of foreign bond price and exchange rate. Proper reactions to the risks make central banks less constrained by the Mundell-Fleming trilemma.

The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges

Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating the equilibrium real interest rate are examined, including approaches based on the term structure of interest rates and small macroeconomic models. The individual country approaches common in the literature are extended to allow for global trend and cyclical factors. The analysis finds that global factors dominate the downward trend in the equilibrium interest rate across 13 advanced economies. A corollary of this finding is that the U.S. equilibrium rate can be informed by global developments and is recently lower than estimated in U.S.-only studies. The analysis also highlights how the common global trend confounds empirical assessments of the determinants of movements in the equilibrium rate and the need to better integrate term-structure and macroeconomic approaches.

The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs of climate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate is the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to a decrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of this decline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRs in recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantially boosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social cost of carbon.

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: The Role of Inflation Expectations

The "natural" or equilibrium real rate of interest is an important concept in macroeconomics. On the one hand, the natural (real) rate provides a description of the real interest rate path consistent with the eventual full capacity of utilization of available resources in the context of low and stable inflation.

Equilibrium real interest rates for the BRICS countries

The equilibrium real interest rate is one of the most discussed variables in economics, although it is unobservable. While it has been estimated with respect to various developed countries, this paper is the first to estimate it for five developing countries - the BRICS countries. To do so the most widely used model in this respect - the Laubach and Williams model - is used. Moreover, the results are compared to the actual real interest rate to give an indication whether e.g. monetary policy was too tight or too loose in certain periods. The results indicate that we indeed have substantial differences between the actual and the equilibrium real interest rate going either way, indicating asymmetries in monetary policies among the BRICS countries. While for China and India monetary policy tends to be too loose in many periods, thus boosting economic growth even further, the reverse seems to be true with respect to Brazil especially in the late 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s. In Russia and South Africa the actual real rate is mainly in line with the equilibrium one, thus monetary policy is neither to loose nor too tight.

The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs of climate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate is the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to a decrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of this decline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRs in recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantially boosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social cost of carbon.