Equatorial Quasi-biennial Oscillation Research Articles

Global monsoon systems and their modulation by the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Monthly-mean data of ERA-Interim reanalysis, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and sea surface temperature(SST) are investigated for 40 years (1979-2018) to reveal the modulation of the global monsoon systems by the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), focusing only on the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods (in total 374 months). First, the climatology of the global monsoon systems is viewed with longitude-latitude plots of the precipitation, its proxies and lower tropospheric circulations for the annual mean and two solstice seasons, together with the composite differences between the two seasons. In addition to seasonal variations of Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs), several regional monsoon systems are well identified with an anti-phase of the annual cycle between the two hemispheres. Precipitation-related quantities (OLR and specific humidity), surface conditions [i.e., mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and SST] and circulation fields related to moist convection systems show fundamental features of the global monsoon systems. After introducing eight QBO phases based on the leading two principal components of the zonal-mean zonal wind variations in the equatorial lower-stratosphere, the statistical significance of the composite difference in the precipitation and tropospheric circulation is evaluated for the opposite QBO phases. The composite differences show significant modulations in some regional monsoon systems, dominated by zonally asymmetric components, with the largest magnitudes for specific QBO-phases corresponding to traditional indices of the equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind at 20 and 50 hPa. Along the equator, significant QBO influence is characterized by the modulation of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific. In middle latitudes during boreal summer, for a specific QBO-phase, statistically significant modulation of low-pressure cyclonic perturbation is obtained over the Northern-Hemisphere western Pacific Ocean associated with statistically significant features of heavier precipitation over the eastern side of the cyclonic perturbation and the opposite lighter precipitation over the western side. During boreal winter, similar significant low-pressure cyclonic perturbations were found over the Northern-Hemisphere eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans for specific phases.

Studies of the Effect of Seasonal Cycle on the Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a Chemistry-Climate Model

The effect of the seasonal cycle on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere was investigated using a chemistry-climate model (CCM) by fixing the seasonal cycle in CCM simulations. The CCM realistically reproduced the QBO in wind and ozone fields of a 30-month period in a climatological simulation (control run) under annually repeating sea surface temperature (SST) with a seasonal cycle. For the control run, four experimental simulations (perpetual runs) were made by fixing solar declination and SST on the 15th of January, April, July, and October, respectively, for about 20 years. In the three perpetual runs of January, July, and October, the QBO was maintained and persisted throughout the 20-year integration in spite of some small differences in period and amplitude among the three runs. On the other hand, the QBO in the perpetual April run began to weaken after about 15 years and the downward propagation of westerly wind stopped at about 20 hPa, resulting in the QBO’s ceasing. The cause of this QBO disappearance is related to the evolution of the background mean flow in the lower stratosphere, which filtered out the parameterized gravity waves propagating upwards farther.

Atomic Oxygen SAO, AO and QBO in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Based on Measurements from SABER on TIMED during 2002–2019

Using version 1.0 of TIMED/SABER nighttime O(3P) density data in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) retrieved from 2.0 and 1.6 μm radiances, we conducted a study on the semiannual oscillation (SAO), annual oscillation (AO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atomic oxygen volume mixing ratio at 96 km, from 40° S to 40° N, for 2002–2019. We first analyzed the altitude profiles of the atomic oxygen volume mixing ratio and kinetic temperature, and chose to study the daily average of the atomic oxygen volume mixing ratio at 96 km. For the analysis of SAO and AO, we fitted two sinusoidal functions with periods of 6 and 12 months to the daily mean atomic oxygen volume mixing ratio to obtain the annual and semiannual amplitude. The SAO amplitudes had two peaks of 1.68 × 10−3 and 1.63 × 10-3 at about 25° S and 25° N, and displayed a clear hemispheric symmetry. The AO amplitude increased with the latitude and showed distinct minima (valleys) of 3.36 × 10−4 around the equator, as well as a clear hemispheric asymmetry. The correlation coefficient between the atomic oxygen volume mixing ratio QBO with equatorial stratospheric QBO was higher in the tropics than the mid latitudes.

Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric QBO on the Global Circulation up to the Lower Thermosphere

AbstractTo estimate reaction of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere to changes in phases of equatorial stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the three‐dimensional nonlinear middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM) is used. This model allows continuous simulations of atmospheric wave propagation from the ground to the thermosphere (300 km and above). The main atmospheric hydrodynamic fields (wind and temperature), components of residual meridional circulation (RMC), and fluxes of mass are calculated based on ensembles containing 16 pairs of model runs for initial conditions corresponding to easterly and westerly QBO phases. To minimize uncertainties in determination of the QBO phases, an approach based on the usage of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is applied. Statistically significant results are obtained illustrating how changes in the planetary waves (PWs) structures promote the spread of QBO effects to polar latitudes and to the thermosphere, through changes in the Eliassen‐Palm (EP) flux and its divergence, or through the formation of an eddy meridional circulation. The main contribution to the cooling of the polar winter stratosphere during the westerly QBO is made by the weakening of wave activity, in particular, the weakening of the vertical EP flux, which leads to a weakening of the poleward heat flux. The sensitivity of the wave‐induced eddy circulation to changes in the QBO phase is higher than that of the RMC, demonstrating that PWs propagating from the lower troposphere are the most important mechanism for the transfer of global circulation disturbances from the equatorial QBO region to polar latitudes.

Simulations of Ozone Feedback Effects on the Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a Chemistry–Climate Model

Ozone feedback effects on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were investigated with a chemistry–climate model (CCM) by modifying ozone abundance in the radiative process. Under a standard run for 50 years, the CCM could realistically reproduce the QBO of about a 28-month period for wind and ozone. Five experiment runs were made for 20 years through varying ozone abundance only in the equatorial stratosphere from 100 to 10 hPa by −40, −20, −10, +10, and +20%, respectively, after the chemistry module and transferring the resultant ozone to the radiation calculation. It was found that the modification of ozone abundance in the radiation substantially changed the period of the QBO but slightly influenced the amplitude of the QBO. The 10% and 20% increase runs led to longer QBO periods (31 and 34 months) than that of the standard run, i.e., lengthening by 3 and 6 months, while the 10%, 20%, and 40% decrease runs resulted in shorter periods (24, 22, and 17 months), i.e., shortening by 4, 6, and 11 months. These substantial changes in the QBO period in the experiment runs indicate that the ozone feedback significantly affects the QBO dynamics through the modulation in solar heating.

Квазидвухлетние осцилляции зонального ветра в экваториальной стратосфере и их влияние на межгодовые изменения мощности озоновой дыры в Антарктике

The Antarctic ozone hole is observed annually in spring due to the complex influence of photochemical and dynamical processes. The increased concentration of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere causes a long-term negative trend in total ozone (TO). Intense interannual fluctuations in TO against a background of the long-term trend associated with dynamic atmospheric processes do not allow assessing definitely the direction of the trend (growth/decline) in the recent years. Studying the dependence of interannual fluctuations in the ozone hole intensity on the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) allows identifying natural causes of variations and assessing the trend due to anthropogenic factors. The long-term QBO forecast allows predicting different phenomena that depend on the QBO.

Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial total ozone: A seasonal dependence and forecast for 2019–2021

The interannual variability of the total ozone (TOZ) in the equatorial region (5°S – 5°N) has been studied using the satellite daily and monthly data in 1978–2018. The coupling of the equatorial TOZ changes to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere has long been known. However, the detailed analysis of the daily deseasonalized TOZ data over the course of 15 complete wind QBO cycles convincingly showed some new important features of the ozone QBO (ΔTOZ). The key points of the equatorial ΔTOZ variations are clearly linked with the certain time moments during the downward propagation from ~10 to ~70 hPa of the easterly and westerly regimes of the wind QBO. The equatorial ΔTOZ distinctly maximizes when the westerly regime reaches ~70 hPa and the easterly regime appears at ~10 hPa, which occur simultaneously. The times of minima of the equatorial ΔTOZ are less obvious due to the westerly regime appearance at ~10 hPa on the background of the unfinished descent of the easterly regime. Furthermore, the seasonal regularities of the wind QBO causes the seasonal dependence of the ozone QBO in the equatorial region. Maxima of the equatorial ΔTOZ are definitely observed near solstice months (June or December). This result contradicts to the general belief about lack of the seasonal synchronization of the equatorial ozone QBO in contrast to the seasonally synchronized extratropical ozone. However, the coincidence of the equatorial ΔTOZ maxima with solstices and, consequently, their recurrence every 2 or 2.5 years allow a prediction of the equatorial TOZ, based on the long-term forecast of the wind QBO. The ozone QBO forecast for subsequent about two years (2019–2021) is presented.

Long‐Term Changes in the Northern Midwinter Middle Atmosphere in Relation to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

AbstractLong‐term changes in the middle atmosphere due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are examined in relation to the effect of the equatorial Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the northern midwinter circulation. The examinations are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations for 1979–2100 with the Earth‐System‐Model MPI‐ESM‐MR that generates the QBO internally. In particular, the three‐dimensional residual circulation is used as proxy for the Brewer‐Dobson circulation, revealing an increasing downwelling in the center of the polar low over Northern Europe/Siberia (~5% per decade). The changes in northern midwinter temperature, zonal wind, and residual circulation are much stronger during westerly (QBO‐W) than easterly (QBO‐E) phase of QBO (e.g., for a moderate increase in greenhouse gases, we find maximum decreases in the zonal mean westerly jet at 60°N and 3 hPa of about −14.8 ± 5.4 m/s for QBO‐W but only −4.7 ± 5.2 m/s for QBO‐E). This is due to a change of the extratropical QBO‐W signature toward QBO‐E signature while the equatorial QBO remains nearly unchanged (i.e., a change toward disappearance of the so‐called Holton‐Tan relationship). Similar to the current change from QBO‐W to QBO‐E signature, the changes during QBO‐W include an increase in amplitude and eastward shift in phase of stratospheric stationary Wave 1 at the cost of Wave 2, with decreasing westerlies over North America and increasing downwelling over Siberia. The eastward shift in phase of stationary Wave 1 is related to the associated increase in meridional transport of planetary vorticity.

Response of the Southern Hemisphere Atmosphere to the Stratospheric Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) from Winter to Early Summer

Response of the Southern Hemisphere Atmosphere to the Stratospheric Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) from Winter to Early Summer

Observed Solar Cycle Variation of the Stratospheric QBO Generated in the Mesosphere and Amplified by Upward Propagating Waves

With an analysis of zonal wind observations over 40 years, Salby and Callaghan [1] showed that the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) at 20 km is modulated by 11-year solar cycle (SC) variations from about 12 to 20 m/s (Figure 2). The observations are reproduced qualitatively in a study with the 3D Numerical Spectral Model, which shows that the SC effect of the stratospheric QBO is produced by dynamical downward coupling originating in the mesosphere. In this modeling study, the SC period is taken to be 10 years, and a realistic heat source is applied varying exponentially with altitude: 0.2%, surface; 2%, 50 km; 20%, 100 km and above. The numerical results show that the variable solar radiation in the mesosphere around 65 km generates a hemispheric symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO), which is modulated by relatively large SC variations. Under the influence of wave mean flow interactions, the EAO propagates into the lower atmosphere and is the dynamical source or pacemaker for the large SC modulation of the QBO. The numerical results show that the upward propagating small-scale gravity waves from the troposphere amplify the SC modulations of the QBO and EAO in the stratosphere, part of the SC mechanism. The zonal winds of the equatorial QBO and EAO produce through the meridional circulation measurable SC variations in the temperature of the stratosphere and troposphere at high latitudes. Analysis of NCEP temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) provides observational evidence of the EAO with SC variations around 11 years.

On the association between the recent episode of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the strong El Niño event

Since February 2016, the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind of the lower stratosphere exhibited anomalous behavior. In more detail, it broke down from its typical pattern and the eastward stratospheric winds unexpectedly reversed to a westward direction. We herewith attempt to detect whether this unprecedented event could be considered as a result of plausible long-range correlations in the QBO temporal evolution. The analyses performed using all the available QBO data sets showed that such an interpretation could not be inferred, because the temporal evolution of the equatorial zonal wind in the lower stratosphere does not exhibit power-law behavior. Further, the natural time analysis of the QBO data indicates precursory behavior before the maximization of the zonal wind velocity and that the recent strong El Nino event might be related with the aforementioned unprecedented behavior.

HF radar observations of a quasi‐biennial oscillation in midlatitude mesospheric winds

AbstractThe equatorial quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is known to be an important source of interannual variability in the middle‐ and high‐latitude stratosphere. The influence of the QBO on the stratospheric polar vortex in particular has been extensively studied. However, the impact of the QBO on the winds of the midlatitude mesosphere is much less clear. We have applied 13 years (2002–2014) of data from the Saskatoon Super Dual Auroral Radar Network HF radar to show that there is a strong QBO signature in the midlatitude mesospheric zonal winds during the late winter months. We find that the Saskatoon mesospheric winds are related to the winds of the equatorial QBO at 50 hPa such that the westerly mesospheric winds strengthen when QBO is easterly, and vice versa. We also consider the situation in the late winter Saskatoon stratosphere using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA‐Interim reanalysis data set. We find that the Saskatoon stratospheric winds between 7 hPa and 70 hPa weaken when the equatorial QBO at 50 hPa is easterly, and vice versa. We speculate that gravity wave filtering from the QBO‐modulated stratospheric winds and subsequent opposite momentum deposition in the mesosphere plays a major role in the appearance of the QBO signature in the late winter Saskatoon mesospheric winds, thereby coupling the equatorial stratosphere and the midlatitude mesosphere.

Vertical Momentum Transports Associated with Moist Convection and Gravity Waves in a Minimal Model of QBO-like Oscillation

Abstract A self-sustained oscillation dynamically analogous to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was obtained as a radiative–moist-convective quasi-equilibrium state in a minimal model of the stratosphere–troposphere coupled system, which is a two-dimensional cloud-system-resolving nonhydrostatic model with a periodic lateral boundary condition. The QBO-like oscillation shows downward propagation of the zonal mean signals in the stratosphere. In addition, in the troposphere there are periodic variations associated with the QBO-like oscillation, including organized features of moist-convective systems characterized as squall-line- or back-building-type precipitation patterns. Details of the momentum budget variation are examined to study the stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling associated with the QBO-like oscillation. The vertical flux of horizontal momentum is separated into three contributions of convective momentum transport (CMT) and momentum transports by upward- and downward-propagating gravity waves—that is, upward and downward gravity wave momentum transports (GWMTs)—and the time–height variations of each contribution are evaluated quantitatively. The method is based on the linear theory of gravity waves to separate upward- and non-upward-propagating contributions and uses the phase speed spectra of the total cloud mixing ratio to identify the CMT contribution. The upward GWMT predominates in the stratosphere and contributes to the acceleration of the zonal mean zonal wind. The CMT and downward GWMT are confined to the troposphere, and the former predominates. The variations of the mean zonal wind modulate the organization of convective systems, and the squall-line- and back-building-type patterns appear alternately. According to the modulation of convective systems, the spectral features of every momentum transport vary periodically.

Tropospheric QBO–ENSO Interactions and Differences between the Atlantic and Pacific

Abstract This study investigates the interaction of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-yr model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural (no anthropogenic) forcings are considered. These long simulations allow the authors to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO–ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern Hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide the potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.

Analysis of the Equatorial Lower Stratosphere Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Using ECMWF-Interim Reanalysis Data Set

The ERA-Interim data set from Europe Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was used to quantitatively analyze the characteristic of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Analysis of spatial and temporal of the data showed that the zonally symmetric easterly and westerly phase of QBO regimes alternate with period of ∼27.7 months. Based on Equivalent QBO Amplitude (EQA) method, the maximum amplitudes in zonal mean zonal wind (u), temperature (T), vertical shear (du/dz) and quadratic vertical shear (d2u/dz2) are ∼28.3 m/s, ∼3.4 K, ∼4.8 m/s/km, and ∼1.0 m/s/km2 respectively. The amplitudes decay exponentially with a Gaussian distribution in latitude. The twofold-structure of QBO descends downward at rate of ∼1 km/month. The temperature anomaly can be used to analyze the characteristic of QBO which satisfies the thermal wind balance relation in the lower- stratosphere due to very small contribution of the mean meridional and vertical motion. Moreover, the concentration of the total column ozone (TCO) in the tropics is significantly influenced by QBO. During the westerly phase of QBO, the TCO is relatively increased in the lower-stratosphere, but decreased during the opposite phase.

Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

The response of the period of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) to increases in tropical upwelling are considered using a one‐dimensional model. We find that the imposition of the annual cycle in tropical upwelling creates substantial variability in the period of the QBO. The annual cycle creates synchronisation regions in the wave forcing space, within which the QBO period locks onto an integer multiple of the annual forcing period. Outside of these regions, the QBO period undergoes discrete jumps as it attempts to find a stable relationship with the oscillator forcing. The resulting set of QBO periods can be either discrete or broad‐banded, depending on the intrinsic period of the QBO.We use the same model to study the evolution of the QBO period as the strength of tropical upwelling increases, as would be expected in a warmer climate. The QBO period lengthens and migrates closer towards 36‐ and 48‐month locking regions as upwelling increases. The QBO period does not vary continuously with increased upwelling, however, but instead transitions through a series of two‐ and three‐cycles before becoming locked to the annual cycle. Finally, some observational evidence for the cyclical behaviour of the QBO periods in the real atmosphere is presented.

The validity of long-term prediction of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as a proof of the exact seasonal synchronization of the equatorial stratospheric QBO cycle

Sixty years of radiosonde data of the equatorial stratospheric zonal wind have been used to develop the method of long-term wind variations forecast based on the seasonal regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) evolution. The wind changes during all easterly wind regime descents in 1953–2014 in the middle stratosphere (from 10 to 70hPa) have been analyzed elaborately by the experimental data. Arguments are presented which show that the delay of easterly downward propagation is observed during each QBO cycle, not just in some cycles, as is commonly believed. Moreover it is shown that the start and the end of all easterly delays (the stages of stagnation) are strongly linked to seasons of a year. It causes the discretely varying length of the stagnation stages and the clearly defined quantized QBO cycle period which can only be equal to 24, 30 or 36 months. These regularities allow developing the method of long-term QBO-cycle prediction. The verification of previous forecasts by comparing with actually observed zonal wind changes in 2005–2014 is presented. Also the QBO development for the following period as far as December 2018 is predicted. We show that the predictability of the wind QBO in the equatorial stratosphere for a long time interval (up to five years) is the result of the existence of a strong seasonal dependence of the QBO evolution. On the other hand, the correctness of these QBO predictions is a strong proof of the exact seasonal synchronization of the QBO cycle in the equatorial stratosphere.

The year-to-year variability of the autumn transition dates in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind regime and its coupling with the dynamics of the stratosphere and troposphere

The behaviour of the zonal prevailing wind in the autumn mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) and its correlations with dynamical processes in the lower atmosphere is considered in terms of the autumn transition date (ATD) variability. The ATD is defined as the day when the rate of zonal wind decrease in the MLT region reaches its maximum in September–October. The method is applied to MLT radar wind data obtained at Collm (52°N, 15°E) and Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) during 1979–2007 and 1979–2011, respectively. The interannual variability of the ATDs depends on the direction of the stratospheric equatorial zonal winds at 30hPa, i.e. the phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). There is also a statistically significant correlation between the ATDs and the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index taken at upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric heights during the westerly phase of the QBO. Numerical simulations with a mechanistic global circulation model demonstrate that high NAM indices correspond to later ATD and that the ATD, defined from the zonal wind characteristics, depends on the gravity wave flux.

Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation

This study provides a mechanistic explanation of why the Holton-Tan (HT) effect, a phenomenon in which the strength of northern stratospheric winter polar vortex synchronizes with the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), was disrupted in the middle to late winters of 1978–1997. In line with recent reassessments of the HT effect, we find that an easterly QBO in the lower stratosphere leads to the formation of a midlatitude wave guide that enhances both the upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere (~35–50°N, 30–200 hPa) and the northward wave propagation in the upper to middle stratosphere (~35–60°N, 20–5 hPa). This enhanced poleward refraction of planetary waves results in a more disturbed polar vortex, causing the HT effect. The weakening of the HT effect in 1978–1997 was associated with a broader and strengthened polar vortex in November to January. The divergence of wave activity generated by eddies growing within the vortex provided the momentum source and allowed wave activity to propagate meridionally away from the vortex; this interfered with the QBO modulation of planetary wave propagation and led to a weakening of the HT effect during this period. The stronger than average polar vortex in 1978–1997 was associated with a vertically coherent cooling signature over northeastern Asia in the stratosphere. We suggest that a change of stratospheric circulation and/or a change of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling were the main causes for the disrupted HT effect in 1978–1997.

Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical total ozone under alternative QBO scenarios of equatorial stratospheric wind

Equatorial total column ozone variations with quasi-biennial periodicity are described by paying attention to their coupling with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind in equatorial stratosphere. Analysis is made for the 35-year time interval from 1978 to 2013 using the zonal mean total ozone (TOZ) data in latitude band from 5° S to 5° N derived from satellite measurements by means of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The study was performed using strong seasonal regularities of the wind QBO and the discrete variation of the QBO-period revealed earlier. The forecast of the wind QBO evolution made in Gabis (2012) is fully justified. The comparison between predicted and actually observed changes of the height wind structure shows the prominent accordance, which confirms the forecast validity. It is shown that variations of deseasonalized TOZ are in strong coupling with changes of equatorial wind QBO that coincides with the numerous previous researches. However our results contradict the assumption about quite complicated ozone response in the equatorial region due to continuously varying with time relationship between annual and quasi-biennial cycles and irregularly variable wind QBO-period. The total ozone changes actually observed clearly corresponds to the mean ozone variations calculated for different QBO scenarios and aligned according to the sequence of QBO scenarios already occurred in fact. This close association indicates the possibility of forecasting the equatorial total ozone QBO based on the predicted wind QBO.