Equatorial Lower Stratosphere Research Articles

Role of tropical lower stratosphere winds in quasi-biennial oscillation disruptions.

In 2016, the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (WQBO) in the equatorial stratosphere was unprecedentedly disrupted by westward forcing near 40 hPa; this was followed by another disruption in 2020. Strong extratropical Rossby waves propagating toward the tropics were considered the main cause of the disruptions, but why the zonal wind is reversed only in the middle of the WQBO remains unclear. Here, we show that strong westerly winds in the equatorial lower stratosphere (70 to 100 hPa) help to disrupt the WQBO by hindering the wind reversal at its base. They also help equatorial westward waves propagate further upward, increasing the negative forcing at around 40 hPa that drives the QBO disruptions. Tropical westerly winds have been increasing in the past and are projected to increase in a warmer climate. These background wind changes may allow more frequent QBO disruptions in the future, leading to less predictability in atmospheric weather and climate systems.

Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract. Climate models simulate lower rates of North Atlantic heat transport under greenhouse gas climates than at present due to a reduction in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Solar geoengineering whereby surface temperatures are cooled by reduction of incoming shortwave radiation may be expected to ameliorate this effect. We investigate this using six Earth system models running scenarios from GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) in the cases of (i) reduction in the solar constant, mimicking dimming of the sun; (ii) sulfate aerosol injection into the lower equatorial stratosphere; and (iii) brightening of the ocean regions, mimicking enhancing tropospheric cloud amounts. We find that despite across-model differences, AMOC decreases are attributable to reduced air–ocean temperature differences and reduced September Arctic sea ice extent, with no significant impact from changing surface winds or precipitation − evaporation. Reversing the surface freshening of the North Atlantic overturning regions caused by decreased summer sea ice sea helps to promote AMOC. When comparing the geoengineering types after normalizing them for the differences in top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing, we find that solar dimming is more effective than either marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection.

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

AbstractClimate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Although the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This article investigates the potential stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection (SAI) to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied a simple downscaling method and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We evaluated changes in geoengineering model intercomparison project (GeoMIP) experiment G4, an SAI experiment in 5 Tg of SO2 into the equatorial lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069, concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. G4 is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. The spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and G4 are notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio‐economic consequences of both doing, and not doing G4. In general, SAI has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. G4 is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27°C events compared with RCP4.5 after some years of SAI deployment as well as during the post‐termination period of SAI. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy‐relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SAI.

The observed influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in the lower equatorial stratosphere on the East Asian winter monsoon during early boreal winter

AbstractThis study examines the relationship between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. Here, we consider the effects of QBO winds in the lower stratosphere at 70 hPa. It is found that during the period of 1958–2019, the EAWM in the early winter months (November–December) is weaker in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than in the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). During EQBO, the northerly monsoon flow is weakened, and anomalous warm temperatures occur over East Asia. Moreover, components of the EAWM circulation system, including the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, East Asian trough, and East Asian jet stream, are all weakened. Our further analysis suggests that the QBO may influence the EAWM directly via a subtropical pathway. The EQBO tends to weaken the East Asian jet stream and shift it poleward, and the changes in the East Asian jet stream lead to a weakened EAWM. The activities of planetary waves are also changed in association with the QBO. Examinations of individual zonal wavenumbers (WNs) of planetary waves in the SLP field reveal that WN 1 is strengthened while WNs 2 and 3 are weakened during EQBO. Specifically, the anomalous WN 2 leads to weakening of the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and East Asian trough, and the anomalous WN 3 reduces the pressure gradient between the East Asia landmass and the western Pacific. The changes in WNs 2 and 3 associated with the QBO play a dominant role in anomalous EAWM.

Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events

Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the troposphere and equatorial stratosphere separately, using a split vortex event in January 2009 as the primary case study. This event cannot be reproduced by constraining wind and temperatures in the troposphere alone, even when the equatorial lower stratosphere is in the correct phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. When the flow in the equatorial upper stratosphere is also constrained, the timing and spatial evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and hence their associated impacts at the surface.

Balloon‐Borne Observations of Short Vertical Wavelength Gravity Waves and Interaction With QBO Winds

AbstractThe quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), a ubiquitous feature of the zonal mean zonal winds in the equatorial lower stratosphere, is forced by selective dissipation of atmospheric waves that range in periods from days to hours. However, QBO circulations in numerical models tend to be weak compared with observations, probably because of limited vertical resolution that cannot adequately resolve gravity waves and the height range over which they dissipate. Observations are required to help quantify wave effects. The passage of a superpressure balloon (SPB) near a radiosonde launch site in the equatorial Western Pacific during the transition from the eastward to westward phase of the QBO at 20 km permits a coordinated study of the intrinsic frequencies and vertical structures of two inertia‐gravity wave packets with periods near 1 day and 3 days, respectively. Both waves have large horizontal wavelengths of about 970 and 5,500 km. The complementary nature of the observations provided information on their momentum fluxes and the evolution of the waves in the vertical. The near 1 day westward propagating wave has a critical level near 20 km, while the eastward propagating 3‐day wave is able to propagate through to heights near 30 km before dissipation. Estimates of the forcing provided by the momentum flux convergence, taking into account the duration and scale of the forcing, suggests zonal force of about 0.3–0.4 m s−1 day−1 for the 1‐day wave and about 0.4–0.6 m s−1 day−1 for the 3‐day wave, which acts for several days.

On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation

A strong relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric winds and the amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter has recently been uncovered using observational data from the mid-1970s to the present. When the QBO is in its easterly phase in the lower stratosphere, it favors stronger MJO activity during boreal winter, while the MJO tends to be weaker during the westerly phase of the QBO. Here we show using reconstructed indices of the MJO and QBO back to 1905 that the relationship between enhanced boreal winter MJO activity and the easterly phase of the QBO has only emerged since the early 1980s. The emergence of this relationship coincides with the recent cooling trend in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the warming trend in the equatorial upper troposphere, which appears to have sensitized MJO convective activity to QBO-induced changes in static stability near the tropopause. Climate change is thus suggested to have played a role in promoting coupling between the MJO and the QBO.

Nearly identical cycles of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in the equatorial lower stratosphere

AbstractAs a nonlinear dynamical system with limit cycles but subject to periodic forcings associated with the seasonal cycle, the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) displays seasonal modulation such that phase transitions are more likely to occur in certain months than in others. Modulation is distinct from seasonal synchronization, defined as quantized QBO periods and identical cycles. Instead, nearly identical QBO cycles can be identified in the data having similar period, internal structure, and (optionally) timing with respect to the calendar year. Four such categories are found using a spectral phase method based on the 2‐D phase space of the leading rotated principal components (RPCs) of near‐equatorial monthly mean zonal wind in the layer 70–10 hPa. The most prominent category, containing as many as 15 cycles of the 28 observed thus far, is “nearly biennial” with period slightly greater than 24 months. All results, prior to the recent QBO anomaly in Cycle 28, are demonstrated to be statistically stationary in the sense that the RPCs are temporally invariant and insensitive to the inclusion of data to 100 hPa and with higher vertical resolution. Inclusion of Cycle 28 has no effect on the rotated empirical orthogonal functions but a microscopic change in the long‐term average, since strong easterlies are missing in the anomalous cycle. For objective definition of QBO cycles in physical space‐time, westerly onsets in the 40–53 hPa layer are least likely to stall and provide unambiguous starting times. Half of these onsets cluster in April–May, consistent with the seasonal modulation obtained with the spectral phase method.

Generation of a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in an NWP Model Using a Stochastic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization

Abstract Many operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems now extend into the stratosphere and are beginning to be used to generate forecasts beyond conventional 5–10-day periods out to seasonal time scales. Past observational and modeling studies have shown that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in equatorial stratospheric winds can play an important role in stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling over these longer time scales. Consequently, stratosphere-resolving NWP models used to generate seasonal forecasts should contain the necessary physics to generate and maintain the QBO. This study describes several key modifications that were necessary to produce a QBO in a high-altitude NWP model, which include an increase in model vertical resolution, implementation of a computationally efficient stochastic gravity wave drag parameterization, and reductions in the amount of horizontal and vertical diffusion in the stratosphere. Results from a 10-yr free-running model simulation with these modifications show that the westerly QBO phase produces lower temperatures and stronger westerly flow in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter polar stratosphere compared to the easterly QBO phase. Ensembles of 120-day simulations over the December–March period show that these modifications replace persistent easterly flow in the equatorial lower stratosphere with a more realistic transition from easterly to westerly flow. The resulting changes in planetary wave propagation produce a statistically significant response in the dynamics of the NH extratropical stratosphere consistent with the Holton–Tan relationship. The westerly shift in equatorial winds also produces a significant response in the NH extratropical troposphere, where the sea level pressure differences in winter resemble the positive phase of the northern annular mode.

Solar signals in CMIP‐5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway

The 11 year solar‐cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP‐5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period ∼1850–2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP‐5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP‐5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high‐top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (∼70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response.A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short‐wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modelled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979–2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high‐pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high‐ and low‐top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.

Intercomparison of vertically resolved merged satellite ozone data sets: interannual variability and long-term trends

Abstract. In the framework of the SI2N (SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate)/IO3C (International Ozone Commission)/IGACO-O3 (Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations – Ozone)/NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change)) initiative, several long-term vertically resolved merged ozone data sets produced from satellite measurements have been analysed and compared. This paper presents an overview of the methods, assumptions, and challenges involved in constructing such merged data sets, as well as the first thorough intercomparison of seven new long-term satellite data sets. The analysis focuses on the representation of the annual cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends for the period 1984–2011, which is common to all data sets. Overall, the best agreement amongst data sets is seen in the mid-latitude lower and middle stratosphere, with larger differences in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the upper stratosphere globally. In most cases, differences in the choice of underlying instrument records that were merged produced larger differences between data sets than the use of different merging techniques. Long-term ozone trends were calculated for the period 1984–2011 using a piecewise linear regression with a change in trend prescribed at the end of 1997. For the 1984–1997 period, trends tend to be most similar between data sets (with largest negative trends ranging from −4 to −8% decade−1 in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere), in large part due to the fact that most data sets are predominantly (or only) based on the SAGE-II record. Trends in the middle and lower stratosphere are much smaller, and, particularly for the lower stratosphere, large uncertainties remain. For the later period (1998–2011), trends vary to a greater extent, ranging from approximately −1 to +5% decade−1 in the upper stratosphere. Again, middle and lower stratospheric trends are smaller and for most data sets not significantly different from zero. Overall, however, there is a clear shift from mostly negative to mostly positive trends between the two periods over much of the profile.

Assessment of the accuracy of (re)analyses in the equatorial lower stratosphere

AbstractThe accuracy of horizontal winds and temperature in the equatorial lower stratosphere is evaluated in different (re)analyses (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis, ERA Interim, and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) using an independent data set collected at low latitudes during long‐duration balloon flights in early 2010. The three analyzed wind products are found significantly less accurate than in the extratropics, with periods of disagreement with the observations lasting several days. To highlight the dynamical context in which the major disagreement events occur, case studies are carried out. The events are shown to be related to an improper representation of large‐scale equatorial Kelvin and Yanai wave packets with vertical wavelengths smaller than 5 km. Such events can induce large errors on trajectories computed with analyzed winds relatively to the actual (balloon) trajectory: 4000 km separation after 5 days of calculation. Reasons for analyses inaccuracy are discussed. The vertical resolution of the underlying model likely plays a role, but the main factor responsible for deficiencies appears to be the lack of wind observations. Indeed, errors in analyzed winds during the campaign have a strong longitudinal structure, with root‐mean‐square errors twice as large over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, poorly covered by radiosounding stations, as over the Maritime Continent or South America. For the ECMWF analysis, this structure mirrors that of the analysis increments, which have largest amplitudes over observed regions. We argue that the reported events are more likely to happen during maximum shear phases of the quasi‐biennial oscillation.

Planetary Waves - Major Forcing Agent in Generating Stratospheric and Mesospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation

Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi Annual Oscillation (SAO) are dominant natural oscillations in the equatorial lower stratosphere and mesosphere and are believed to be generated by the wave-mean flow interaction. The characteristics of stratospheric QBO (SQBO) and mesospheric QBO (MQBO) and SAO are studied by making use of the monthly mean zonal and meridional winds derived from four decades of balloon (1970-2010) and rocket (1971-2007) flights and seven years of SKiYMET meteor radar (2004-2011) observations over an equatorial station Thiruvananthapuram. The year-to-year variation and interrelationships between these oscillations are also studied. The quantitative estimation of forcing towards the mean flow acceleration producing the maximum phase of SQBO during the four-decade period shows 70-80% contribution from planetary waves, while during minimum phase of SQBO the contribution is 30-35%. It is also found that the contribution by planetary waves towards the mean flow acceleration producing MQBO maximum during the seven-year period is around 30-90% and during MQBO minimum phase it is 30-60%. The vertical structure of these oscillations present over the equatorial station is also derived.

Variation of Zonal Winds in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Association with Deficient and Excess Indian Summer Monsoon Scenario

The Indian summer monsoon is one of the most dominant tropical circulation systems in the general circulation of the atmosphere. The country receives more than 80% of the annual rainfall during a short span of four months (June to September) of the southwest monsoon season. Variability in the quantum of rainfall during the monsoon season has profound impacts on water resources, power generation, agriculture, economics and ecosystems in the country. The inter annual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) depends on atmospheric and oceanic conditions prevailed during the season. In this study we have made an attempt to understand the variation of the of zonal winds in the tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS) region during deficient and Excess rainfall years of Indian summer monsoon and its relation to Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). It is found that in the equatorial Upper Troposphere zonal winds have westerly anomalies during deficient rainfall year’s and easterly anomaly during excess rainfall years of Indian summer monsoon and opposite zonal wind anomaly is noted in the equatorial Lower Stratosphere during the deficient and excess rainfall years of Indian summer monsoon. It is also found that the June to September upper troposphere zonal winds averaged between 15°N and 15°S latitudes have a long-term trend during 1960 to 1998. Over this period the tropical easterlies and the tropical jet stream have weakened with time.

Solar cycle signal in a general circulation and chemistry model with internally generated quasi‐biennial oscillation

Simulations with the HAMMONIA general circulation and chemistry model are analyzed to improve the understanding of the atmospheric response to solar cycle variations and the role of the quasi‐biennial oscillation of equatorial winds (QBO) for this response. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. Owing to the internally produced QBO, albeit with a too short period of 24 months, the model is particularly suited for such an exercise. The simulation setup with only solar and QBO forcing allows an unambiguous attribution of the simulated signals. Two separate simulations have been performed for perpetual solar maximum and minimum conditions. The simulations confirm the plausibility of dynamical mechanisms, suggested earlier, that propagate the solar signal from the stratopause region downward to the troposphere. One feature involved in this propagation is a response maximum of temperature and ozone in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our model, this maximum appears as a pure solar signal independent of the QBO and of other forcings. As observed, the simulated response of the stratospheric polar vortex to solar cycle forcing depends on the QBO phase. However, in the model this is statistically significant only in late winter. The simulation for early and mid winter suffers probably from a too strong internal variability of the polar vortex in early winter.

Interrelation between QBO and 11-year solar cycle effects in total column ozone over Europe

On the basis of total column ozone (TO) data obtained in the period of 1957–2007 at 10 ground-based European stations, characterized by long and highly reliable measurements, the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and 11-year solar cycle (11-year SC), manifesting in TO are investigated. The results of comparative analysis of seasonal differences between different QBO/solar extremes convincingly demonstrate interrelation between the QBO and 11-year SC effects. It is shown that solar activity modulates the phase of the QBO effect so that the quasi-biennial TO signals during solar maximum and solar minimum are nearly in opposite phase. It is also demonstrated that isolated under permanent conditions of solar minimum or solar maximum the QBO effects in TO have the time scale of about 20 months. Solar modulation of the QBO effect makes the QBO a conductor of the solar cycle impact on TO over Europe. The mechanism of influence of the 11-year SC on the QBO and probably includes its impact on the QBO amplitude in the equatorial lower stratosphere, mainly through weakening of the equatorial easterlies during solar maximum.

Response of the middle atmosphere to the 11‐year solar cycle simulated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

A long‐term numerical experiment has been conducted using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere to time‐varying spectral solar irradiance over multiple 11‐year cycles, modeled on the basis of observed 10.7‐cm radio flux (F10.7). The model domain covers from the Earth's surface to the lower thermosphere with approximately two‐degree horizontal resolution and 66 vertical layers. Sea surface temperatures are prescribed by a climatological annual cycle, and boundary data for chemical compositions are held constant. The experiment does not include spontaneous nor imposed quasi‐biennial oscillation. Temperature and ozone differences near the stratopause between solar max and min, typically 0.8 K and 1.6% corresponding to approximately 100 units of F10.7 variation, have general agreement with the current scientific understanding. The model's dynamical responses as an indirect solar effect are substantially weak during winter against evidences from past empirical studies. The indirect solar signal tends to appear when the polar vortex becomes weak. The most striking signal is more frequent stratospheric sudden warmings during solar max in the Northern Hemisphere late winter through early spring, supporting observed tendencies. This modulation has an aspect of the annular mode and results in a major impact on the troposphere in early spring. Such a signal, however, does not appear in the Southern Hemisphere where the model has a westerly bias. There is no marked response in the equatorial lower stratosphere.

General aspects of a T213L256 middle atmosphere general circulation model

A high‐resolution middle atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) developed for studying small‐scale atmospheric processes is presented, and the general features of the model are discussed. The GCM has T213 spectral horizontal resolution and 256 vertical levels extending from the surface to a height of 85 km with a uniform vertical spacing of 300 m. Gravity waves (GWs) are spontaneously generated by convection, topography, instability, and adjustment processes in the model, and the GCM reproduces realistic general circulation in the extratropical stratosphere and mesosphere. The oscillations similar to the stratopause semiannual oscillation and the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial lower stratosphere are also spontaneously generated in the GCM, although the period of the QBO‐like oscillation is short (15 months). The relative roles of planetary waves, large‐scale GWs, and small‐scale GWs in maintenance of the meridional structures of the zonal wind jets in the middle atmosphere are evaluated by calculating Eliassen‐Palm diagnostics separately for each of these three groups of waves. Small‐scale GWs are found to cause deceleration of the wintertime polar night jet and the summertime easterly jet in the mesosphere, while extratropical planetary waves primarily cause deceleration of the polar night jet below a height of approximately 60 km. The meridional distribution and propagation of small‐scale GWs are shown to affect the shape of the upper part of mesospheric jets. The phase structures of orographic GWs over the South Andes and GWs emitted from the tropospheric jet stream are discussed as examples of realistic GWs reproduced by the T213L256 GCM.

A Lagrangian Spectral Parameterization of Gravity Wave Drag Induced by Cumulus Convection

Abstract A Lagrangian spectral parameterization of gravity wave drag (GWD) induced by cumulus convection (GWDC) is developed based on ray theory and several assumptions and implemented into the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The Lagrangian parameterization calculates explicitly gravity wave (GW) propagation that has been treated too simply in existing column-based parameterizations. For comparison with column-based parameterization, a hydrostatic and Boussinesq version of the Lagrangian parameterization is used in the present study. One-day convective GW-packet trajectories demonstrate that the Lagrangian parameterization calculates reasonably the GW-packet propagation, and GW packets propagate upward along curved paths determined by Doppler shifting and the variation of stability. The GW trajectories show that the horizontal extent of GW propagation can be as large as 20° as GWs approach critical levels. Comparison with column-based parameterization through one-month simulations indicates that the magnitude of GWDC is much increased due mainly to the vertical convergence of GW packets in the lower stratosphere and equatorial troposphere with the Lagrangian parameterization. However, this increase in GWDC is found to be essentially dependent on the horizontal propagation characteristics of GWs. In climate simulations, it is found that the easterly flow in the equatorial stratosphere and mesospheric subtropical jet are improved through the Lagrangian parameterization. With the Lagrangian parameterization, interannual variability is significantly enhanced in the equatorial lower stratosphere and exhibits a structure related to the onset of the westerly phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillations. Finally, limitations of the current Lagrangian parameterization and required improvements are noted.

Chemical reaction pathways affecting stratospheric and mesospheric ozone

Catalytic cycles and other chemical pathways affecting ozone are normally estimated empirically in atmospheric models. In this work we have automatically quantified such processes by applying a newly developed analysis package called the “Pathway Analysis Program” (PAP). It used modeled chemical rates and concentrations as input. These were supplied by the “Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere” MECCA box model, itself initialized by the Free University of Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with Chemistry. We analyzed equatorial, midlatitude and high‐latitude locations over 24‐hour periods during spring in both hemispheres. We present results for locations in the lower stratosphere, upper stratosphere and midmesosphere. Oxygen photolysis dominated (>99%) in situ ozone production in the equatorial lower stratosphere, in the upper stratosphere and in the mesosphere. In the lower stratosphere midlatitudes the “ozone smog cycle” (already established in the troposphere) rivaled oxygen photolysis as an in situ ozone source in both hemispheres. However, absolute ozone production rates in midlatitudes were rather slow compared with at the equator, typically 16–50 ppt ozone/day. In the equatorial lower stratosphere, five catalytic sinks were important (each contributing at least 5% to chemical ozone loss): a HOx cycle, a HOBr cycle and its HOCl analog, a water‐HOx cycle and a mixed chlorine‐bromine cycle. Important in midlatitudes were the HOx cycle, a NOx cycle, the HOBr cycle and the mixed chlorine‐bromine cycle. In lower‐stratosphere high latitudes, the chlorine dimer cycle and the mixed chlorine‐bromine cycle dominated in both hemispheres. A variant on the latter, involving BrCl formation, also featured. In the upper stratosphere high latitudes (where strong negative ozone trends are observed), a nitrogen cycle, a chlorine cycle, and a mixed chlorine‐nitrogen cycle were found. In the mesosphere, three closely related HOx cycles dominated ozone loss.