Fiscal Consolidation Episodes Research Articles

Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability

This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.

Fiscal Consolidation and Income Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper estimates the effects of past fiscal consolidations in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on income inequality. For the 13 LAC countries with fiscal consolidation episodes identified by the narrative approach, one percent of GDP fiscal consolidation increases the disposable Gini coefficient by 0.12 percentage point on average in five years. The size of the effect tends to be larger for tax-based consolidations and for non-commodity exporters but broadly similar during booms and slumps.

Why do governments cut their deficits?

Using discrete choice models, this paper examines the macroeconomic and political factors motivating more than 450 fiscal consolidation episodes in 185 countries during the period 1979–2019. In emerging and developing countries, consolidations are more likely during “good times”: when growth is high, and countries experience positive terms of trade shocks with low inflation. In these countries, governments with a high margin of majority, regardless of how long they have been in power, are also more likely to consolidate fiscal accounts. The opposite seems to be the case in advanced economies, where more “mature” governments are more likely to implement fiscal consolidations and the consolidations themselves are more likely during periods of subdued growth. Evidence also suggests that tax-based consolidations may be relatively more politically challenging to implement. Finally, consolidations in advanced economies are relatively more likely to take place in the presence of fiscal rules.

Threshold of the CAPB That Can Be Attributed to Fiscal Consolidation Episodes in South Africa

This paper investigates the threshold of the cyclical adjusted primary balance (CAPB) that can be attributed to fiscal consolidation in South Africa. The CAPB framework is used in the threshold autoregressive regime (TAR) from 1979 to 2022. The contribution of the paper is the estimation of the CAPB in the context of South Africa to find fiscal consolidation episodes. Moreover, we identify the threshold of CAPB that can be attributed to fiscal consolidation, which the available literature is silent on. The TAR, first-order derivative and dummy variables are employed to find thresholds that can be attributed to fiscal consolidation episodes. By doing so, we provide valuable insights into the underlying dynamics of fiscal consolidation in the country, which can help policymakers develop more effective strategies for managing fiscal consolidation episodes. We estimated the success of fiscal consolidation on government debt in South Africa. There is a threshold of −1.28168%, 1.9182%, and 1.9270% for the CAPB of total government revenue increase, government expenditure cut, and the CAPB as a sum of both revenue and expenditure, respectively. These thresholds are different from the threshold of 1.5% advocated in the literature. It is recommended that a country-based threshold be used to find fiscal consolidation episodes. No or less fiscal consolidation is needed, as it results in less chance of reduction in government debt. Fiscal authorities must establish and execute a strategy for managing domestic government debt to avoid increasing its risk.

Time-Varying Elasticity of Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance and Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Domestic Government Debt in South Africa

This paper investigates the impact of the time-varying elasticity of the cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) and fiscal consolidation on government debt. The time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is used on a time series of data from 1979 to 2022. The contribution of this paper is on the understanding of the impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic government debt and the need to use time-varying elasticity when calculating the cyclical adjusted primary balance to provide a more accurate representation of discretionary actions taken by fiscal authorities. It is found that there is more variation in the CAPB with time-varying elasticity than with constant elasticity. Constant elasticity is not effective in capturing fiscal consolidation episodes, and time-varying elasticity is a better alternative. There is evidence that fiscal consolidation increases domestic government debt. The shocks of fiscal consolidation through government expenditure cuts reduce domestic government debt in the long run, while taxes increase domestic government debt. It is recommended that fiscal authorities use fiscal consolidation to reduce government expenditure that is related to inefficient expenditure. In the event of government expenditure, this expenditure needs to be in productive sectors of the economy that will bring about an increase in revenue rather than an increase in the tax rate. Given the result, a tax increase should be something that fiscal authorities are not using in the effort to stimulate economic growth or reduce domestic government debt.

A Green Fiscal Pact for the EU: increasing climate investments while consolidating budgets

ABSTRACT To ensure sufficiently rapid decarbonization to meet the Paris Agreement goals, investments in green infrastructure will have to increase by an estimated 2% of world GDP annually, according to the International Energy Agency. A significant part of that investment will need to be funded with public resources – raising major tensions between consolidation needs after the high deficits during the pandemic and the need to increase investments. We consider this trade-off in the European Union, which has set itself one of the most ambitious climate targets in the world. The additional public investment required to meet the European Union’s climate goals is around 0.6% of GDP annually during this decade, which might increase if the green transition is accelerated due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Budget consolidation can be done at a moderate pace in line with EU fiscal rules if those rules are interpreted flexibly, but past consolidation episodes resulted in major public investment cuts. A ‘green golden rule’ –excluding net green investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure fiscal rule compliance– is proposed as the most promising option to address this tension and would provide a positive incentive to undertake such investments. However, the uncertain growth impact of green public spending and the risks to growth from climate change create difficult trade-offs in fiscally weaker countries. Better regulatory policy and a higher price on emissions should in parallel incentivise private green investment and reduce public costs. These ingredients should be combined to form a ‘Green Fiscal Pact’. Key policy insights Public investments tend to be cut in fiscal consolidation episodes by vote-maximising politicians and thus need to be treated differently in fiscal rules. Increasing green public investments will be difficult in the upcoming consolidation period. A ‘green golden rule’ –excluding net green public investment from the fiscal rule indicators– is proposed as the best option to incentivise public climate investment. Policymakers need to underpin such a rule by clearly defining what constitutes emission-reducing climate investments and monitoring compliance. Fossil fuel subsidies should also be eliminated, and private climate investment should be incentivised through appropriate taxation and regulation. Climate change may tighten budget constraints in countries with already high debt levels because of its negative growth effects, so these countries should delay the introduction of the green golden rule.

Are fiscal consolidation episodes helpful for public sector efficiency?

ABSTRACT We assess the consequences of fiscal consolidation episodes on public sector efficiency (scores) for 35 OECD countries for the 2007–2020 period. We find that fiscal consolidations improve public sector efficiency and results are robust across efficiency models. Moreover, peripheral euro-area economies and economies with debt-to-GDP ratios between 60% and 90% are those whose public sector efficiency scores improve more when fiscal consolidation episodes occur. The evidence that fiscal consolidations enhance spending efficiency is an additional argument for fiscal consolidations, from a policy perspective.

Impact of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: the Tunisian case

PurposeDeparting from the expansionary austerity literature, this study aims at examining how fiscal consolidation affects the economic growth in Tunisia using annual data over the period 1970–2018.Design/methodology/approachTo revisit the fiscal consolidation-economic growth nexus, the ambiguous empirical findings in previous literature make useful the adoption of alternative econometric techniques. The authors use an extended nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) and the Diks and Panchenko's (2006) nonlinear Granger causality test. Furthermore, a traditional approach based on changes in cyclically-adjusted primary balance was applied to define the fiscal consolidation episodes in Tunisia.FindingsThe empirical evidence reveal that fiscal adjustment in Tunisia may hurt the economy, both in the short- and long-run, through its contractionary effect on economic growth. Another important finding concerns the unidirectional nonlinear Granger causality running from fiscal consolidation to economic growth.Practical implicationsFiscal adjustment in Tunisia is found to play a prominent role in reducing public debt; but at the same time, it may be costly and not beneficial to the economy. This view corroborates with the fact that fiscal consolidation is more likely to end successfully only under specific conditions. This calls for a deeper reflection upon new insights regarding the design of fiscal adjustment in Tunisia. To reach this end, it is suggested to combine the defensive consolidation strategy with offensive components such as investment, infrastructure, education and health.Originality/valueThe existing economic analysis on fiscal policy-growth nexus in Tunisia has often identified fiscal consolidation through the use of the actual fiscal balance. With the goal of more accurate estimation, this study bridges the gap by using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB) as a much suitable indicator to investigate the non-Keynesian effect of fiscal consolidation in Tunisia. This indicator eliminates the influence of cyclical fluctuations and many other fixed expenditures such as the interest paid on the public debt.

Are Fiscal Consolidation Episodes Helpful for Public Sector Efficiency?

Are Fiscal Consolidation Episodes Helpful for Public Sector Efficiency?

The decline in public investment: ``social dominance’’ or too-rigid fiscal rules?

ABSTRACT Public investment in advanced economies is at historical lows, following a declining trend since the 1980s. Two main hypotheses have been posed to explain this evolution: (i) the ‘social dominance hypothesis’, whereby increased public social spending has been displacing investment from government’s budgets, despite the upward trend witnessed in tax burdens and debt; (ii) fiscal rules’ frameworks, that would have forced governments to reduce investment in their quest for compliance. In this paper, we jointly test the validity of these two duelling explanations using two empirical approaches (panel data models; local projections) for a sample of advanced economies comprising data for the past six decades. We find that both factors are relevant to explain the observed downward trend in investment, with social spending acting as a structural driver, whereas fiscal rules contributed mainly when applied in fiscal consolidation episodes.

Higher Taxes for Fiscal Consolidation? Expected and Unexpected Effects of Municipal Tax Policy

During episodes of fiscal consolidation in public budgets, there are different instruments to choose from. The literature shows broad consensus that expenditure cuts are preferred, whereas tax increases tend not to support the fiscal aim. The paper examines instruments for fiscal consolidation at the municipal level in Germany presenting theoretical and empirical findings in favor of revenue-based instruments, focusing on the case of municipalities in the Free State of Saxony. German municipalities can autonomously control several positions on both the expenditure side and the revenue side. Options for expenditure cuts are given both for voluntary and compulsory tasks. On the revenue side, municipalities have the opportunity to set assessment rates on both local trade taxes and property taxes. For this part of the consolidation process, the prevailing opinion is that higher taxes are offset by lower grants, which is not the case in reality. Nevertheless, there are cannibalization effects to consider that may induce primary effects in the short and medium term. Hence, the paper shows an updated view of the drawbacks and opportunities of revenue-based fiscal consolidation. The paper provides evidence for an economic and political discussion that predominantly focuses strongly on the harmful effects of tax increases on the economy.

FISCAL CONSOLIDATION PROGRAMS AND INCOME INEQUALITY

AbstractWe document a strong empirical relationship between higher income inequality and stronger recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation episodes across time and space. To explain this finding, we develop a life‐cycle economy with uninsurable income risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of several European economies, including inequality and fiscal structures, and study the effects of fiscal consolidation programs. In our model, higher income risk induces precautionary savings behavior, which decreases the proportion of credit‐constrained agents in the economy. These agents have less elastic labor supply responses to fiscal consolidations, which explain the correlation with inequality in the data.

The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those estimated in the literature for advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: Cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: Fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment.

Úspešné koncepty politiky redukcie verejných dlhov po kríze

The paper analyses episodes of successful reduction of public debt in OECD countries. From 2008 to 2018, we identify 19 episodes of fiscal consolidation, of which five resulted in a significant debt reduction. The most successful post-crisis concept is extensive, long-term consolidations and consolidations started with excessive initial debt. Spending cut consolidations have not been significantly more successful than the tax increase approach. After the inclusion of projections for 2019 and 2020, we identified 18 episodes of significant debt reduction, of which nine were associated with previous fiscal consolidation and nine were not. In the years after successful consolidation, the primary balance surpluses were more effective in debt reduction than the macroeconomic environment. Economic growth and interest rates in the significant debt reduction episodes associated with previous consolidation were lower than those without that connection. Countries which have achieved significant debt reduction without previous consolidation have done so primarily by better macro development and profited from a lower level of indebtedness.

A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations

This paper analyses the transitions out of fiscal consolidations using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1975-2013 and applying a discrete-time competing risks duration model. Our approach allows us to distinguish the factors behind a successful or an unsuccessful end of fiscal consolidation episodes. The results show that economic and political factors, the size and typology of fiscal adjustments and the occurrence of crises explain the differences in the length and the success/failure of fiscal consolidations. Moreover, while fiscal adjustment programmes that end successfully display positive duration dependence, those that end in an unsuccessful manner are not duration dependent.

Fiscal austerity and unemployment

This paper studies the joint dynamics of fiscal deficits and unemployment in a neoclassical growth model with distortionary taxation, labor market search frictions, and real wage rigidities. First, we show that a tax increase or a reduction in government spending can improve the fiscal balance at the expense of a higher unemployment rate. However, under a scenario of rigid wages and productivity gains, it is possible to achieve a simultaneous reduction of the fiscal deficit and the unemployment rate. Second, we analyze the Swedish fiscal consolidation episode of the 1990s through the lens of the model. The model is capable of reproducing the simultaneous reduction in fiscal deficits and unemployment observed during this episode. Counterfactual simulations show that in the absence of TFP gains and rigid wages, fiscal consolidation measures alone would not have eliminated fiscal deficits, and the unemployment rate would have reached double digit levels.

Efektywność podatkowa w warunkach konsolidacji fiskalnej w krajach UE

Z przeglądu literatury można wnioskować, że rodzaj konsolidacji fiskalnej ma znaczenie dla zaufania konsumentów/inwestorów, a tym samym dla gospodarki i kondycji finansów publicznych. Celem artykułu jest pokazanie zależności efektywności podatkowej (mierzonej poziomem obciążeń podatkowych) i epizodu konsolidacji fiskalnej w krajach UE. Pojęcie efektywności fiskalnej lub efektywności podatkowej zostało wykorzystane za W. Modzelewskim (2014), natomiast definicję epizodu konsolidacji fiskalnej przyjęto za F. Heylenem i wsp. (2013) z wykorzystaniem miary deficytu strukturalnego pierwotnego pomniejszonego o transakcje jednorazowe. Przedmiotem badań były tylko kraje UE, w których zidentyfikowano epizody konsolidacji fiskalnej w latach 1981–2008. Zastosowano korelację Spearmana. Postawiono hipotezę: „im większa skala zmian w deficycie strukturalnym pierwotnym, tym większa efektywność podatkowa”. Korelacja Spearmana dla tych zmiennych była dodatnia, istotna statystycznie i o umiarkowanej sile. Oznacza to, że działania konsolidacyjne nie muszą obniżać relacji dochodów podatkowych do PKB. Jest to zachęta do większego wysiłku rządu Polski w redukcji deficytu budżetowego.

Smooth operator: remittances and household consumption during fiscal shocks

Abstract With 250 million migrants globally, remittances are one of the major sources of income in many developing countries. While there is abundant evidence that remittances facilitate consumption smoothing, the literature has not considered whether this effect varies with the fiscal stance and during fiscal shocks. Our focus is therefore on whether the consumption-smoothing effect changes with fiscal policy phases and whether remittances and government support are substitutes or complements in stabilizing household consumption. We take a holistic approach to investigating this relationship combining cross-country and household-level analysis. We find that remittances help smooth consumption, and hence improve welfare, more during fiscal consolidation episodes, while this impact is insignificant during fiscal expansions. The results also indicate that the effect is more pronounced in countries with greater reliance on remittances.

The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978\u20132013

Using an annual data set covering 17 OECD countries over the time period 1978–2013, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality in the short- and medium-run. By estimating impulse response functions from local projections, we find that fiscal consolidations typically lead to an increase in income inequality. Baseline results suggest that in the aftermath of the start of a fiscal adjustment episode, the Gini coefficient of disposable income increases by about 0.4% points in the short-run (in year three), and by 0.6% points in the medium-run (in year seven). The impact of fiscal austerity measures on the income distribution is found to be more pronounced (a) when the size of the fiscal consolidation package is large rather than small; (b) when the duration of the adjustment is long instead of short; (c) when the fiscal consolidation is based more on spending cuts than on tax increases; (d) when the consolidation is started in the aftermath of a financial crisis rather than in a non-crisis episode; and (e) when the adjustment falls into a period of low economic growth instead of high growth.

Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries

This paper studies the effects of fiscal consolidation on the debt-to-GDP ratio of 11 Euro area countries over the period 2000Q1-2012Q1. Using a quarterly Panel VAR allows us to trace out the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio following a fiscal shock and to disentangle the main channels through which fiscal consolidation affects the debt ratio. We define a fiscal consolidation episode as self-defeating if the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio does not decrease compared to the pre-shock level. Our main finding is that when consolidation is implemented via a cut in government primary spending, the debt ratio, after an initial increase, falls to below its pre-shock level. When instead the consolidation is implemented via an increase in government revenues, the initial increase in the debt ratio is stronger and, eventually, the debt ratio reverts to its pre-shock level, resulting in what we call self-defeating consolidation.