Epidemiological Predictors Research Articles

Development of a clinical prediction score for Ebola virus disease screening at triage centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was the largest since the disease's discovery in 1976. Rapid identification and isolation of EVD patients are crucial during triage. This study aimed to develop a clinical prediction score for EVD using clinical and epidemiological predictors. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study using surveillance data from EVD outbreak, collected during routine clinical care at the Ebola Transit Center (ETC) in Beni, DRC, from 2018 to 2020. The Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method was used for score development, including potential predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio above 2 or below 0.50. Validation was performed using a dataset previously published in PLOSOne by Tshomba et al. Among 3725 patients screened, 3698 fulfilled the inclusion criteria, with 571 (15.4%) testing positive for EVD via RT-PCR Test. Seven predictive factors were identified: asthenia, sore throat, conjunctivitis, bleeding gums, hematemesis, contact with a sick person, and contact with a traditional healer. The prediction score achieved an Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.764, with 81.4% sensitivity and 53.6% specificity at a -1 cutoff. External validation demonstrated an AUROC of 0.766, with 80.8% sensitivity and 41.4% specificity at the -1 cutoff. Our study developed a screening tool to assess the risk of suspected patients developing EVD and being admitted to ETUs for RT-PCR testing and treatment. External validation results affirmed the model's reliability and generalizability in similar settings, suggesting its potential integration into clinical practice. Given the severity and urgency of EVD as well as the risk nosocomial EVD transmission, it is essential to continuously update these models with real-time data on symptoms, disease progression, patient outcomes and validated RDT during EVD outbreaks. This approach will enhance model accuracy, enabling more precise risk assessments and more effective outbreak management.

Occult Serologically Confirmed Cases of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus among the General Population in the Era of the Fourth Vaccination.

Background: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection can significantly increase the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to investigate the epidemiological and clinical predictors of occult serologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases among the general population during the fourth vaccination era in Israel. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study among individuals aged ≥18 years who had not been tested for COVID-19 in the preceding 5 months. Occult serologically confirmed cases were based on the presence of anti-N IgG antibodies. Potential risk factors were examined. Multivariable regression analysis identified independent predictors of subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: This study included 504 participants. The prevalence of occult serologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 12.5%. Chronic disease was found to be an independent predictor for the absence of occult disease (aOR) 0.4 [95% (CI): 0.18-0.87], p-value = 0.02). No significant differences were observed in age, sex, marital status, number of children, vaccination status, or exposure to COVID-19 infection between participants with and without SARS-CoV-2 sub-infection. Conclusions: We found a lower prevalence of occult serologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, compared to previous reports, and a negative correlation between chronic disease and occult SARS-CoV-2. Continued research, surveillance, and intervention strategies are needed to optimize long-term health outcomes and provide valuable insights for public health policymakers and clinicians.

Pediatric head and neck trauma in the United States: Trends, risk factors and outcomes using the National Trauma Data Bank.

Pediatric head and neck (HN) trauma is an important contributor to pediatric morbidity, resulting in significant downstream consequences. Few studies provide epidemiological predictors of pediatric HN trauma on a national scale. The present study aims to identify risk factors of HN injury and mortality in the pediatric population. A retrospective cohort study was conducted for patients (age <18 years) using the US National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB 2007-2019). Demographic, injury, and physiologic outcome data were analyzed. HN injury was defined as a head or neck Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) >0. Logistic regression identified independent predictors of mortality following HN trauma. Of the 1.42 million pediatric patients analyzed, 44.05% had HN injury. In patients aged 0-4, the most common mechanism was falls (47.67% in this age group) while in ages 14-17, motor vehicle/transport accidents (MVTs) were the most common mechanism (56.06%). Controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and injury severity, HN injury was associated with increased odds of mortality (OR 2.404, 95% CI 1.530-3.778). HN injury mortality was strongly predicted by firearm exposure (OR 11.28, 95% CI 6.074-20.95), age <4 (OR 1.179, 95% CI 1.071-1.299), and self-insured status (OR 1.977, 95% CI 1.811-2.157). NTDB data demonstrate that the percentage of pediatric patients with HN trauma has decreased over the past 12 years although is associated with increased odds of mortality. Age and insurance status predicted mortality from HN trauma, with falls and MVTs being the most common mechanisms of injury. These data have implications for future public health efforts in this patient population. 3.

Epidemiological predictors of quality of life and the role of early markers in children with cerebral palsy: A multi-centric cross-sectional study

BackgroundMore than 100 million children in the world have at least one type of disability. Among disabled children, approximately 25% of chronic disabilities are of neurological origin. Cerebral Palsy is the leading cause of chronic disability in children, making them not only physically and mentally handicapped but also socially aloof. MethodsThis study was conducted among 200 eligible participants from three centers with Child Guidance or Cerebral Palsy clinics in the outpatient department. All the participants were included in the analysis of the epidemiological profile and the role of early markers. Of these, 70 participants were assessed for quality of life according to the age criteria of a pre-tested Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life questionnaire (CP-QOL). ResultsMean ± S.D. age in years was 3.7 ± 2.8. Birth history included 182 (39%) neonatal etiopathology, followed by 173 (38%) perinatal, and 106 (23%) antenatal causes. Mean ± S.D. birth weight was 2.3 ± 1.2 kg. The positive predictors of various domains of Quality of Life were an absence of any associated sensory, neurological, communication, or psychological disorder or disability. While, the negative predictors were decreasing functional capacity, involvement of number of limbs in increasing order, high therapeutic requirements, and dependency. ConclusionThe association between early diagnosis of cerebral palsy and improved functional capacity, involvement of a lesser number of limbs, better quality of life, and absence of associated disabilities is established from the findings of our study.

An integrated molecular risk score early in life for subsequent childhood asthma risk.

Numerous children present with early wheeze symptoms, yet solely a subgroup develops childhood asthma. Early identification of children at risk is key for clinical monitoring, timely patient-tailored treatment, and preventing chronic, severe sequelae. For early prediction of childhood asthma, we aimed to define an integrated risk score combining established risk factors with genome-wide molecular markers at birth, complemented by subsequent clinical symptoms/diagnoses (wheezing, atopic dermatitis, food allergy). Three longitudinal birth cohorts (PAULINA/PAULCHEN, n = 190 + 93 = 283, PASTURE, n = 1133) were used to predict childhood asthma (age 5-11) including epidemiological characteristics and molecular markers: genotype, DNA methylation and mRNA expression (RNASeq/NanoString). Apparent (ap) and optimism-corrected (oc) performance (AUC/R2) was assessed leveraging evidence from independent studies (Naïve-Bayes approach) combined with high-dimensional logistic regression models (LASSO). Asthma prediction with epidemiological characteristics at birth (maternal asthma, sex, farm environment) yielded an ocAUC = 0.65. Inclusion of molecular markers as predictors resulted in an improvement in apparent prediction performance, however, for optimism-corrected performance only a moderate increase was observed (upto ocAUC = 0.68). The greatest discriminate power was reached by adding the first symptoms/diagnosis (up to ocAUC = 0.76; increase of 0.08, p = .002). Longitudinal analysis of selected mRNA expression in PASTURE (cord blood, 1, 4.5, 6 years) showed that expression at age six had the strongest association with asthma and correlation of genes getting larger over time (r = .59, p < .001, 4.5-6 years). Applying epidemiological predictors alone showed moderate predictive abilities. Molecular markers from birth modestly improved prediction. Allergic symptoms/diagnoses enhanced the power of prediction, which is important for clinical practice and for the design of future studies with molecular markers.

Abstract B051: Genome-wide association studies of 26,187 women without ovarian cancer identifies 12 genetic loci of blood CA125

Abstract Background: CA125 is elevated in women with ovarian cancer and is the single best ovarian cancer screening biomarker candidate to date, although two randomized screening trials showed no clinically significant difference in ovarian cancer mortality. Consideration of genetic variants that influence blood CA125 levels in healthy women could improve its performance as an ovarian cancer screening biomarker. Furthermore, while studies have suggested CA125 is associated with ovarian carcinogenesis and progression, its biological role remains unclear. Thus, we aimed to identify genetic variants of CA125 in women without ovarian cancer. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide association analysis to identify common genetic variants associated with CA125 using data on 26,187 women without ovarian cancer, leveraging existing blood CA125 data and genetic data from Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), Nurses’ Health Studies (NHS/NHSII), and New England Case Control Study (NEC). All genotype data were inputted using TOPMed. For blood CA125 measurement, PLCO, NHS/NHSII, and NEC used the CA125II assay and EPIC used the MSD assay. We used multivariable linear regression models adjusting for age, study, and population ancestry (top 4 principal components). Analyses were conducted separately by CA125 assay, genotyping platforms, and menopausal status at blood draw. Because epidemiological predictors of CA125 differ by menopausal status, we conducted analyses stratified by menopausal status. When we meta-analyzed these results, there were no significant heterogeneity by menopausal status in majority of the genome-wide significant SNPs. Therefore, we performed a fixed-effects meta-analysis to combine summary statistics across all the results. Results: We identified 12 independent loci associated with CA125 at a genome-wide significance level (p&amp;lt;5 × 10−8), of which one SNP (rs73005869) had been previously linked with CA125 and is located in the MUC16 gene. In our meta-analysis, 7 SNPs were associated with lower and 5 were associated with higher levels of CA125. We discovered SNPs on chromosome 16 in the TET2 gene that were significantly associated with increased CA125 levels. We also discovered SNPs in MSLN, a gene reported to be overexpressed in ovarian tumors that contributes to metastasis in the peritoneal microenvironment, were associated with lower CA125 levels. SNPs in the HIC1 gene on chromosome 17, a tumor suppressor gene whose aberrant methylation has been observed in ovarian tumors, was associated with lower CA125 levels. Conclusion: We identified 12 independent loci associated with blood CA125 levels in women without ovarian cancer, providing novel biological insights on the role of CA125. Accounting for these genetic factors that influence blood CA125 levels could improve the performance of CA125 as ovarian cancer screening biomarker in average risk women, substantially improving survival through earlier detection of this deadly disease. Citation Format: Naoko Sasamoto, Jihye Kim, Constance Turman, Shelley S. Tworoger, Rudolf Kaaks, Renée T. Fortner, Daniel W. Cramer, Kathryn L. Terry, Nicolas Wentzensen, Peter Kraft. Genome-wide association studies of 26,187 women without ovarian cancer identifies 12 genetic loci of blood CA125 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Ovarian Cancer; 2023 Oct 5-7; Boston, Massachusetts. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(5 Suppl_2):Abstract nr B051.

Host species and geography impact bee-associated RNA virus communities with evidence for isolation by distance in viral populations.

Virus symbionts are important mediators of ecosystem function, yet we know little of their diversity and ecology in natural populations. The alarming decline of pollinating insects in many regions of the globe, especially the European honey bee, Apis mellifera, has been driven in part by worldwide transmission of virus pathogens. Previous work has examined the transmission of known honey bee virus pathogens to wild bee populations, but only a handful of studies have investigated the native viromes associated with wild bees, limiting epidemiological predictors associated with viral pathogenesis. Further, variation among different bee species might have important consequences in the acquisition and maintenance of bee-associated virome diversity. We utilized comparative metatranscriptomics to develop a baseline description of the RNA viromes associated with wild bee pollinators and to document viral diversity, community composition, and structure. Our sampling includes five wild-caught, native bee species that vary in social behavior as well as managed honey bees. We describe 26 putatively new RNA virus species based on RNA-dependent RNA polymerase phylogeny and show that each sampled bee species was associated with a specific virus community composition, even among sympatric populations of distinct host species. From 17 samples of a single host species, we recovered a single virus species despite over 600km of distance between host populations and found strong evidence for isolation by distance in associated viral populations. Our work adds to the small number of studies examining viral prevalence and community composition in wild bees.

Epidemiological indicators and predictors of lethality associated with fungal infections in a NICU: an historical series

ObjectivesFungal infections (FI) pose a public health concern and significantly increase mortality rates, especially within Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICU). Thus, this study aimed to investigate epidemiological indicators, risk factors, and lethality predictors associated with FI in a NICU. MethodsThis study included 1,510 neonates admitted to the NICU of a reference hospital in Brazil between 2015 and 2022. Demographic data, such as sex, birth weight, gestational age, and use of invasive devices were analyzed. ResultsThirty neonates developed invasive FI, totaling 33 episodes and an incidence of 1.2 per 1,000 patient days. Candida albicans was the most frequent species (52.9 %), the bloodstream was the most affected site (78.9 %), and 72.7 % of infections occurred between 2015 and 2018. The lethality rate associated with FI was 33.3 %, and 90 % of deaths occurred within 30 days of diagnosis of infection. Weight < 750 g, prolonged hospital stay, use of parenteral nutrition, and broad-spectrum antimicrobials were independent risk factors for infection occurrence, especially glycopeptides and 4th generation cephalosporins, having a considerable role in the increase in fungal infections. Weight < 750 g was considered a significant predictor of lethality, and C. albicans had the highest lethality rate (40 %). ConclusionThese findings highlight the elevated lethality rate associated with these infections, reinforcing the importance of developing strategies to control FI within NICU.

Medico-legal evaluation of burn trauma injuries. Epidemiological features and predictors of mortality and other adverse outcomes

Introduction: Burn trauma is a devastating, life-threatening public health issue responsible for significant morbidity and mortality. Developing countries suffer more from the medical, psychological, and economic consequences of burns. The current study aimed to investigate the medicolegal aspects of burn trauma by identifying the epidemiological factors and injury characteristics associated with increased risk of mortality, intentional infliction, and different types of complications. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted enrolling the burn trauma patients admitted to Burn Unit, Tanta University Hospital, Egypt over one year. Results: The current study was conducted among 138 burn trauma patients with a case fatality rate of 13.8 %. Of them, 5.8 % were victims of intentional burns, 44.9 % were complicated, and the length of hospital stay ranged between one day and 52 days. Patients aged less than 10 years constituted about 33.3 %. The burn trauma was the highest in June, May and March. Intentionally exposed patients, patients with third-degree burns affecting the head, neck and trunk and those with burns involving a total body surface area (TBSA) of more than 33 % were at high mortality risk. Intentional burns were induced mainly by flame (100 %) and characterized by high severity (TBSA = 85 % and 87.5 % third-degree burns). Intentional burns involved mainly the trunk (p = 0.002) and external genitalia (p = 0.022). The involved TBSA and the highest burn degree were significant predictors of mortality with an excellent area under curves of 0.956 and 0.870, respectively and (p < 0.001). The TBSA of more than 17 % and the burn degrees above the second were significant predictors of in hospital complications (p < 0.001). Daytime intentional burns, burns involving the upper extremities and face, deep and widely distributed burns, and infected wounds were associated with a significant need for surgical treatments. The median length of hospital stay was ten days, primarily attributed to the in hospital complications (p = 0.02). Conclusion: A high degree of vigilance and accurate assessment of burn size, depth and distribution with meticulous interpretation of the mechanism of infliction are central not only for treatment interventions but from the medicolegal point of view.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Outcomes Predictors for Intensive Care Unit COVID-19 Patients in Al-Madinah, Saudi Arabia. Retrospective Cohort Study.

The global pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) increased the demand for intensive care unit (ICU) services. Mortality and morbidity rates among ICU COVID-19 patients are affected by several factors, such as severity, comorbidities, and coinfections. In this study, we describe the demographic characteristics of COVID-19 patients admitted to an ICU in Saudi Arabia, and we determined the predictors for mortality and prolonged ICU length of stay. Additionally, we determined the prevalence of bacterial coinfection and its effect on the outcomes for ICU COVID-19 patients. We retrospectively studied the medical records of 142 COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU at a tertiary hospital in Madinah, Saudi Arabia. Data on demographics, medical history, mortality, length of stay, and presence of coinfection were collected for each patient. Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and intubation were reliable predictors of mortality and ICU length of stay among these ICU COVID-19 patients. Moreover, bacterial coinfections were detected in 23.2% of the patients and significantly (p < 0.001) prolonged their ICU length of stay, explaining the 10% increase in the length of stay for these patients. Furthermore, mortality reached 70% among the coinfected patients, and 60.8% of the isolated coinfecting pathogens were multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Staphylococcus aureus. Increased NLR and intubation are predictors of mortality and prolonged length of stay in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU. Coinfection with MDR bacterial strains potentially results in complications and is a high-risk factor for prolonged ICU length of stay.

Exacerbations Among Patients With Asthma Are Largely Dependent on the Presence of Multimorbidity.

Comorbidities can influence asthma control and promote asthma exacerbations (AEs). However, the impact of multimorbidity in AEs, assessed based on long-term follow-up of patients with asthma of different degrees of severity, has received little attention in real-life conditions. To describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics and predictors of AEs in patients who had presented at least 1 AE in the previous year in the MEchanism of Genesis and Evolution of Asthma (MEGA) cohort. The work-up included a detailed clinical examination, pulmonary function testing, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), blood counts, induced sputum, skin prick-tests, asthma questionnaires, and assessment of multimorbidity. The number of moderate-severe AEs in the preceding year was registered for each patient. The study population comprised 486 patients with asthma (23.7% mild, 35% moderate, 41.3% severe). Disease remained uncontrolled in 41.9%, and 47.3% presented ≥1 moderate-severe AE, with a mean (SD) annual exacerbation rate of 0.47 (0.91) vs 2.11 (2.82) in mild and severe asthma, respectively. Comorbidity was detected in 56.4% (66.6% among those with severe asthma). Bronchiectasis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, atopy, psychiatric illnesses, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension were significantly associated with AEs. No associations were found for FeNO, blood eosinophils, or total serum IgE. Sputum eosinophilia and a high-T2 inflammatory pattern were significantly associated with AEs. Multivariable regression analysis showed a significant association with asthma severity, uncontrolled disease, and low prebronchodilator FEV1/FVC. Our study revealed a high frequency of AE in the MEGA cohort. This was strongly associated with multimorbidity, asthma severity, poor asthma control, airflow obstruction, higher sputum eosinophils, and a very high-T2 inflammatory pattern.

Epidemiological survival predictors of cancer of the corpus uteri: a population-based analysis

Cancer of the corpus uteri (CCU) is one of the most common gynecological malignancies in high- and middleincome countries. The objective of the study was to evaluate the factors predicting survival in CCU patients over the period 2000-2021 using the data of population-based cancer registry of the Arkhangelsk region. Material and Methods. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with CCU for the period 2000-21 was evaluated using life tables and Kaplan-Mayer methods with a log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the effect of prognostic factors on survival time. Results. A total of 3272 cases were selected for the analysis. The 5-year survival rates improved from 70.6 % in 2000-04 to 75.6 % in 2015-19. In stage I, II, III, and IV CUN, the 5-year survival rates were 90.8 % (95 % CI 89.3-92.0 %), 71.1 (95 % CI 66.3-75.4 %), 46.7 (95 % CI 41.4-51.8 %), and 3.9 (95 % CI 1.5-7.5 %), respectively; p&lt;0.001. In the multivariate regression model, for stage II, III, and IV CCU, the hazard ratios for death from cancer were respectively 2.69 (2.14-3.39), 5.73 (4.66-7.03), and 20.26 (16.13-25.44) compared to stage I. The risk of death from CCU was 2.0-2.7 times higher in patients with aggressive histological subtypes and sarcomas compared to that in patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma; 2.0-2.8 times higher in patients older than 60 years compared to younger patients, and 1.3 times higher in rural patients compared to urban patients (p&lt;0.05). There was no increase in the risk of death from CCU over the period of COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion. In this population-based study, we have found that the survival of patients with CCU is significantly affected by age and place of residence, which may indicate a limited access of some patients to effective treatment and requires further analysis. No increased risk of death from CCU during the COVID-19 pandemic was found.

Clinical outcomes and epidemiological characteristics of bacteremia in the older Japanese population

BackgroundThe characteristics and clinical consequences of bacteremia in older people, who are highly susceptible to infections, need to be clarified. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological characteristics, prognosis, and predictors of 7-day mortality in patients with community-acquired (CA), healthcare-associated (HCA), and hospital-onset (HO) bacteremia in older adults aged ≥65 years. MethodsPatients aged ≥65 years with positive blood cultures between April 1, 2015, and March 31, 2018, were divided into three groups: pre-old (65–74 years), old (75–89 years), and super-old (≥90 years). Characteristics based on medical exposure, including CA, HCA, and HO, were also compared and factors related to mortality were identified. ResultsOverall, 1716 episodes of bacteremia were identified in 1415 patients. Of the 1211 episodes without contamination, 32.8%, 54.3%, and 12.9% occurred in pre-old, old, and super-old patients. Central line-associated bloodstream infections were more common in pre-old patients and urinary tract infections in the old and super-old. The 7-day mortality rates in the pre-old, old, and super-old groups were 7.4%, 5.8%, and 14.2% (P = 0.002), respectively. Multivariable logistic regression showed that super-old age (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 2.09 [1.13–3.88], P = 0.019) and HO bacteremia (aOR: 1.97 [1.18–3.28], P = 0.010) were independent risk factors for 7-day mortality. Infectious disease consultation had a protective effect on 7-day mortality (aOR: 0.59 [0.35–0.99], P = 0.047). ConclusionsThe epidemiology of bacteremia differs among older people; thus, they should not be treated as a single entity. A careful approach is needed for the optimal management of bacteremia in these vulnerable patients.

Epidemiological and clinical predictors of COVID-19 in presymptomatic and symptomatic outpatients. A single-center cohort.

Antecedentes. En México, la epidemiología de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en el entorno ambulatorio y la identificación de predictores de COVID-19 ha sido poco abordada. Objetivo. Describir las características epidemiológicas y clínicas de pacientes presintomáticos y sintomáticos ambulatorios con SARS-CoV-2 y su asociación con la infección. Material y Métodos. Cohorte retrospectiva de 9 598 pacientes ambulatorios residentes en Yucatán, que solicitaron el diagnóstico molecular de SARS-COV-2 entre marzo de 2020 y diciembre de 2021. Todos los pacientes respondieron un cuestionario para el registro de variables epidemiológicas y clínicas. Se identificaron predictores de positividad viral mediante regresión logística multivariable. Resultados. La incidencia de SARS-CoV-2 fue de 28.8%. Del total de pacientes positivos, 66.1% tuvo contacto previo con enfermos de COVID-19, 65.0% tenían síntomas y 35.0% estaban presintomáticos al momento del muestreo. La comorbilidad más frecuente en los pacientes positivos fue la hipertensión arterial (25.2%, p=0.005). En general, las variables sexo masculino, edad, contacto previo con COVID-19, hipertensión arterial y los síntomas concomitante tos seca/dolor de garganta y anosmia/ageusia se asociaron de forma independiente con la positividad a SARS-CoV-2. El contacto previo con COVID-19 fue un fuerte predictor de positividad en los portadores presintomáticos. Conclusiones. La identificación de predictores de riesgo no invasivos a SARS-CoV-2 pudiera utilizarse para la vigilancia epidemiológica de COVID-19 en un entorno ambulatorio. Este es el primer estudio sobre predictores de SARS-CoV-2 en población autóctona de Yucatán.

Epidemiological Profile and Outcome Predictors of Pediatric Scrub Typhus at a Tertiary Care Health Institution in the Sub-Himalayan Region

Epidemiological Profile and Outcome Predictors of Pediatric Scrub Typhus at a Tertiary Care Health Institution in the Sub-Himalayan Region

Do We Need Another CT Scanner?—The Pilot Study of the Adoption of an Evolutionary Algorithm to Investment Decision Making in Healthcare

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of the adoption of a machine learning (ML) algorithm in support of the investment decisions regarding high cost medical devices based on available clinical and epidemiological evidence. Methods: Following a literature search, the set of epidemiological and clinical need predictors was established. Both the data from The Central Statistical Office and The National Health Fund were used. An evolutionary algorithm (EA) model was developed to obtain the prediction of the need for CT scanners across local counties in Poland (hypothetical scenario). The comparison between the historical allocation and the scenario developed by the EA model based on epidemiological and clinical need predictors was established. Only counties with available CT scanners were included in the study. Results: In total, over 4 million CT scan procedures performed across 130 counties in Poland between 2015 and 2019 were used to develop the EA model. There were 39 cases of agreement between historical data and hypothetical scenarios. In 58 cases, the EA model indicated the need for a lower number of CT scanners than the historical data. A greater number of CT procedures required compared with historical use was predicted for 22 counties. The remaining 11 cases were inconclusive. Conclusions: Machine learning techniques might be successfully applied to support the optimal allocation of limited healthcare resources. Firstly, they enable automatization of health policy making utilising historical, epidemiological, and clinical data. Secondly, they introduce flexibility and transparency thanks to the adoption of ML to investment decisions in the healthcare sector as well.

Clinical Evolution of Acute Vestibular Syndrome: Longitudinal Retrospective Analysis of Epidemiological Data and Prognostic Factors for Recovery

We evaluated the clinical features of patients admitted to the ED with acute vertigo, verifying symptoms after one month and one year to establish epidemiological factors and predictors of resolution. We reviewed 233 records of patients admitted to ED for acute vertigo (125 F and 85 M, mean age 56.12 years). We analyzed the correlation between time of resolution (at one month and one year) and symptoms duration (subjective and/or objective vertigo, instability, cervical pain, audiological, neurological, and neurovegetative symptoms), comorbidities, and therapies, the result of the clinical and instrumental vestibular examination. Resolution of acute vertigo occurred in 81.1%, while persistence of vertigo one year after ED access was reported in 18.8%. There were 135 patients who recovered in one month. The presence of instability, auditory and neurovegetative symptoms, and neck pain represents a significant factor for recovery within one year. Age over 65 and a history of hypertension are associated with a worst recovery. Patients with spontaneous Nystagmus or positive HIT showed a significant difference in symptoms recovery within one month and one year. Presence of positional Nystagmus represents a positive prognostic factor. Our findings emphasize the importance of clinical evaluation of the acute vertigo, helping the clinicians to define central or peripheral diagnosis and predict the resolution of vertigo.

Epidemiological Predictors of Positive SARS-CoV-2 Polymerase Chain Reaction Test in Three Cohorts: Hospitalized Patients, Healthcare Workers, and Military Population, Serbia, 2020

(1) Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its resulting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a fast-moving pandemic. Diagnostic testing, aimed to identify patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, plays a key role in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in different populations. (2) Methods: This retrospective cohort study aimed to investigate predictors associated with positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) SARS-CoV-2 test results in hospitalized patients, healthcare workers (HCWs), and military personnel (MP) during 2020, before the widespread availability of COVID-19 vaccines. Persons with a positive test result were compared with persons with a negative test result in three cohorts during the study period. (3) Results: A total of 6912 respondents were tested, and 1334 (19.3%) of them had positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results. Contact with a known COVID-19 case within 14 days (p < 0.001; OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.25-1.76), fever (p < 0.001; OR: 3.66; 95% CI: 3.04-4.41), cough (p < 0.001; OR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.59-2.30), headache (p = 0.028; OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.02-1.50), and myalgia/arthralgia (p < 0.001; OR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.65-2.42) were independently associated with positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results in the cohort of MP. Furthermore, fever (p < 0.001; OR: 2.75; 95% CI: 1.83-4.13), cough (p < 0.001; OR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.32-3.13), headache (p = 0.008; OR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.15-2.68), and myalgia/arthralgia (p = 0.039; OR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.02-2.45) were independently associated with positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results in the cohort of HCWs. Moreover, independent predictors of positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results in hospitalized patients were contact with a known COVID-19 case within 14 days (p < 0.001; OR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.71-3.83), fever (p < 0.001; OR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.38-2.59), pneumonia (p = 0.041; OR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.01-2.09), and neurological diseases (p = 0.009; OR: 0.375; 95% CI: 0.18-0.78). (4) Conclusions: According to data gathered from cohorts of hospitalized patients, HCWs, and MP, before the widespread availability of COVID-19 vaccines in Serbia, we can conclude that predictors of positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results in MP and HCWs were similar. Accurate estimates of COVID-19 in different population groups are important for health authorities.

Predictors of Failure Following Fixation of Trochanteric Fractures

BACKGROUND: Trochanteric fractures are frequent and mainly affect the elderly causing autonomy loss. Their incidence is increasing, and they are associated with substantial morbidity and high cost. AIM: The aim of our study was to identify epidemiological, radiological, and technical predictors of failure of trochanteric fracture fixation in the elderly. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study including 188 patients aged over 65 years, who underwent surgery for trochanteric fractures, in the period between 2015 and 2020 at the orthopedics department of the Military Hospital of Tunis. The minimum follow-up was 12 months. RESULTS: Thirty-four patients had a mechanical failure (18.1% of cases), including 12 cases of cephalic screw migration (CSM) (6.4%), 12 cases of disassembly (6.4%), eight cases of malunion (4.3%), and four cases of non-union (2.1%). Bone fragility with a Singh index ≤III was associated with CSM, disassembly of fixation material, and malunion (respectively, p &lt; 0.001; p = 0.01 and p = 0.044). Reduction quality was associated with disassembly (p &lt; 0.001) and CSM (p = 0.004). Eccentric screw positioning on anteroposterior (p &lt; 0.001) and lateral views (p = 0.018), high tip-apex distance (TAD) (p &lt; 0.001), and calcar-referenced TAD (p &lt; 0.001) were predictive of CSM. Logistic regression analysis showed that poor reduction quality was an independent factor associated with the occurrence of mechanical complications. Functional outcomes were assessed using Parker and Postel Merle d’Aubigné scores. CONCLUSION: To minimize the risk of mechanical complications, the surgeon must pay close attention to the fracture reduction and to the correct positioning of the cervical screw.

Epidemiology and Predictors of Visual Outcome in Patients with Occupational Eye InjuriesA Prospective Observational Study

Introduction: Work Related Eye Injuries (WREI) constitute majority of eye injuries affecting younger age group. Trauma mainly affects people from lower socioeconomic background. People having workplace related eye injuries have an added financial burden. Challenges with respect to workplace related eye injuries include lack of occupational safety and health cover, lack of related information about pattern and exact incidence and management protocols. Aim: To study epidemiological profile, risk factors and predictors of visual outcome in occupational eye injury patients. Materials and Methods: This prospective observational/cohort study was conducted in Department of Ophthalmology, at Rajiv Gandhi Medical college and CSM Hospital, Kalva, Thane between October 2020 to February 2022. Study population included 42 patients having occupational eye injuries. After obtaining written informed consent, detailed history regarding their occupation, mode of injury and awareness and history of use of any Protective Eye Device (PED) at the time of injury was noted. Best Corrected Visual Acuity (BCVA), detailed anterior segment examination and fundus examination was done. Ocular injury was classified as Open Globe Injury (OGI) or Closed Globe Injury (CGI) and ocular trauma scale was calculated. Patients were treated medically or surgically as indicated and followedup next day and subsequently BCVA was noted and progress at each follow-up till six months was recorded. Factors related to good visual outcome (better or equal to 6/24) and bad visual outcome (visual acuity worse than 6/24) were identified. Continuous variables were described as the mean and variation of each observation from the mean value (Standard deviation) represented as mean±SD (analysed using independent t-test). Univariate analysis was done for identifying factors associated with bad visual outcome and p-value of &lt;0.05 was considered significant. Results: Forty-two patients were included in study (40 males and 2 females). There were 21 patients each in OGI and CGI. Most commonly affected were construction workers- 15 (35.72%). A total of 45% workers had access to PED at workplace but none of them used them. Univariate analysis showed open-globe injury, Zone-1 injury, presence of iris prolapse, traumatic cataract, vitreous prolapse/RD were related to bad visual outcome (&lt;6/24). At six months, the median logMAR BCVA improved significantly from logMAR 0.8 to 0.18 (0-1.3) (p=0.0002). Conclusion: Occupational ocular trauma is commonly seen in younger males. Poorer visual outcomes are associated with OGI and Zone-1 injuries, presence of iris prolapse, traumatic cataract, vitreous prolapse/retinal detachment. Lack of use of protective eye gear was universally noted along with its unavailability in many places. Conducting regular educational programs on ocular safety at workplaces, sensitising the workers and their employees regarding the hazards of ocular trauma and strict implementation of mandatory use of eye protective devices is recommended.