Epidemic Risk Research Articles

Epidemic preparedness and response capacity against infectious disease outbreaks in 186 countries, 2018–2022

ObjectivesDisruptive public health risks and events, including infectious disease outbreaks, are inevitable, but their effects can be mitigated by investing in prevention and preparedness. We assessed the epidemic preparedness and response capacities of health systems in 186 countries from 2018 to 2022.MethodsWe utilized data from the International Health Regulations (IHR) State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR) submissions to assess health systems’ IHR capacities to (1) prevent, (2) detect, (3) respond, (4) enable resources and coordinate, and (5) ensure operational readiness from 2018 to 2022. We categorized the IHR capacities into five levels, with level 1 denoting the lowest level of national capacity and level 5 the highest. We calculated each index’s capacity level as the arithmetic mean of its related indicators and analyzed changes over time using the Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test.ResultsSPAR reporting marginally improved from 92.9% (182 of 196 countries) in 2018 to 94.9% (186 of 196 countries) in 2022, with considerable improvement in all five capacity domains over this period: prevention (58.4 in 2018 to 66.5 in 2022), detection (74.7 to 78.3), response (56.5 to 67.8), enabling resources and coordination (63.0 to 68.3), and ensuring operational readiness (62.8 to 69.9). From the 2022 submissions, 116 (62%) countries reported functional (Level 4 or 5) prevention capacity, 162 (87%) had functional detection capacity, 118 (63%) had functional response capacity, 121 (65%) had functional enabling resources and coordination capacity, and 133 (72%) had functional operational readiness against public health events. Across all the indexes, the WHO African Region reported the fewest countries with functional capacity in these domains.ConclusionsThere was an overall increase in functional capacity across all five domains at both global and regional levels; and a high percentage of countries achieved functional capacity across all domains in 2022. However, a significant number of countries, particularly in the Global South, have yet to achieve functional competence in these capacities, leaving the world vulnerable to the persistent risk of epidemics and infectious biohazards. Strengthening IHR competencies through local, national, and global engagements must be urgently prioritized to achieve global health security against infectious diseases.

Digital-twin-based multi-scale simulation supports urban emergency management: a case study of urban epidemic transmission

ABSTRACT Improving emergency management capabilities is vital for sustainable cities. However, urban emergency management is a complex, giant system that interacts between urban virtual and real spaces, requiring simulation in the virtual space and feedback to the real space. The digital twin model can potentially play an important role in this process, but still faces significant challenges in terms of modeling, simulation, and visualization. In this study, we propose a digital-twin-based multi-scale simulation method and take epidemic transmission as a case study. First, an entity-oriented unified urban database integrating multi-source urban data was constructed as the digital twins of urban human settlements for emergency modeling. Then, a multi-scale urban emergency simulation method in 3D geographic environment was proposed to support emergency simulation for multi-level urban management units. Moreover, an adaptive fusion rendering of emergency information and 3D scene was proposed to support the refinement of emergency visualization. An experimental case study on epidemic risk estimation was conducted through thousands of outbreak scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can establish the digital twins of urban human settlements, where modeling, simulation, and visualization of emergency at multi-scales can be carried out, thus enhancing the efficacy and efficiency of emergency management.

Towards Resilient Communities: Evaluating the Nonlinear Impact of the Built Environment on COVID-19 Transmission Risk in Residential Areas

Reflections on urban epidemics often drive improvements in the resilience of the built environment. However, the assessment regarding the nonlinear influence of the community environment on the spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is inadequate. This study analyzed the influential mechanism of built environment factors on the epidemic risk in residential areas, using Shanghai as a case study. During the lockdown in April 2022, Shanghai reported daily data on COVID-19 outbreaks in residential areas, amounting to a total of 90,323 entries. Based on a GIS-based grid analysis approach, we employed a Random Forest (RF) model and a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model to investigate the marginal effects and spatial heterogeneity of environmental factors on the mean count of COVID-19 outbreak days (MC) in residential areas within each grid zone. The results show that the value of MC forms a ring-mountain distribution surrounding the city's outer ring road. The RF model (R² = 0.57) demonstrates that the house price, population density, family number, and the standard deviation of building height (BH_SD) significantly correlated with MC, with the relative importance of 25%, 13%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. The MGWR model (R² = 0.63) highlights the spatial heterogeneity of family number, house age, house price, property fee, and delivery density. We also found that property fee and green rate were negatively correlated with the MC. These findings help improve responses to public health emergencies and create more resilient communities to cope with pandemics.

Herd immunity and sustainable development goals: role of nurses in strengthening primary health care

Herd immunity has proven as a highly valuable public health concept for dealing with reinfection. It is the immunity developed in a population to an infectious disease through vaccination or previous infection which is contributed by the virulence of the organism, susceptibility of an individual to infection, extent of immunity developed towards the pathogen, occurrence of clinical and subclinical infection in the herd and herd structure. Herd immunity assessment is imperative for continuously monitoring the risk of epidemics. The minimum proportion of the population that needs to be immune to herd effect is called herd immunity threshold which can be achieved through adequate immunization coverage. Immunization contributes to 14 out of its 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is important in reaching SDGs. Nurses play a vital role in strengthening primary health care through vaccination campaigns, addressing vaccine hesitancy, community outreach programs, monitoring and surveillance of diseases, advocacy, and policy development. Nurse practitioners and nurse-led vaccination programs help in reaching underserved communities or groups with vaccine hesitancy and lead to an upsurge in vaccination rates, patient satisfaction, and attainment of community immunity. Thus, vaccination is a powerful, cost-effective public health tool to achieve the eradication of diseases through proper coverage and development of population immunity.

Health status, healthcare use and prevention in Travellers in Nouvelle Aquitaine, France, 2019-2022

Abstract Background The poor health status of underserved populations is compounded by low vaccination uptake, leading to a greater risk of epidemics. On October 2017, a measles outbreak started in the southwest of France among under-vaccinated social groups, including Travellers. We aimed to describe the health status, healthcare use and child measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage in Travellers according to their environmental and living conditions. Methods A cross-sectional study with a three-stage random sample design was conducted between October 2019 and March 2022 in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region in France. Trained social workers administered face-to-face questionnaires to collect data on adults and children. Anthropometric measurements, vaccination records, and data using an environmental exposure questionnaire were also collected. Results The participation rate was high (73.6%), with 1030 adults and 337 children included. Concerning the adults, 36.6% had obesity, 14.4% reported diabetes, 24.7% hypertension, and 14.4% major depression. The prevalence of major depression was significantly higher in adults living in precarious and unauthorized housing than in those with adequate housing (19.8 vs. 14.7%, p = 0.03). The unmet health care needs in the last 12 months was 48.4%. With regard to children, 45.3% had full (i.e., 2-dose) MMR vaccination coverage at 24 months and 17.9% had obesity. Finally, 74.5% of the households experienced housing insecurity, and 22.2% did not have a supply of drinking water. Conclusions Traveller children and adults faced deleterious environmental and living conditions potentially affecting their health, healthcare use, and vaccination coverage. These results demonstrate the need for urgent interventions for underserved populations which take into account their difficult living conditions. Key messages • Travellers have a greater burden of chronic diseases than the general French population and measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage among Traveller children is lower than in the general population. • The more precarious the housing, the more likely Travellers are to report having a chronic disease (social exclusion gradient).

Use of mobile communication technology to overcome vaccine skepticism

Despite significant advances in clinical medicine, infectious diseases and their prevention remain the leading problem of our time. Low literacy of the population reggarding immunization, combined with high activity of the anti-vaccination movement, creates unhealthy skepticism about immunoprophylaxis and the risks of epidemics. The work uses theoretical analysis of literature, methods of anonymous questionnaires of students of medical and non-medical specialties, methods of statistical and bioinformatics data processing, and modern internet technologies: the platform of the social network “Vkontakte” and the program for creating a chatbot “Senler”. The analysis of commitment to vaccination of medical and non-medical students showed that 65.8% to 96.2% of respondents have a positive attitude to preventive health measures. From 1.9% to 6% believe the disease is easier to treat than to prevent, and almost 30% of respondents do not think about prevention and diseases in general, considering themselves young. Almost 10% of non-medical students (1 group) consider vaccination useless, 8.4% dangerous for immunity, 18.3% know nothing about vaccinations and cannot compare the benefits of vaccination with the risk of infectious pathology. In order to form medical literacy of the population, including in strategic issues of preserving the health of the nation, the team of authors developed and implemented through the social network “Vkontakte” chatbot “Vaccine and point” containing up-to-date information about vaccines, methods multiplicity and age features of their use. People [n = 156] used the chatbot during the month of work, noting its high informational value, motivating to vaccination. Analysis of commitment to vaccination of students of medical and non-medical specialties showed an insufficient level of trust in domestic preventive medicine, which forms an unhealthy attitude to vaccine prevention. Insufficient vaccine coverage creates real threats to the spread of infectious diseases at the population level. Developed and implemented in real practice, the “Vaccine and point” chatbot is an effective tool for increasing the knowledge of compatriots about the real possibilities of protection against the main vaccine-controlled infections and an additional attempt to overcome anti-vaccination skepticism.

Spatiotemporal risk of human brucellosis under intensification of livestock keeping based on machine learning techniques in Shaanxi, China.

As one of the most neglected zoonotic diseases, brucellosis has posed a serious threat to public health worldwide. This study is purposed to apply different machine learning models to improve the prediction accuracy of human brucellosis (HB) in Shaanxi, China from 2008 to 2020, under livestock husbandry intensification from a spatiotemporal perspective. We quantitatively evaluated the performance and suitability of ConvLSTM, RF, and LSTM models in epidemic forecasting, and investigated the spatial heterogeneity of how different factors drive the occurrence and transmission of HB in distinct sub-regions by using Kernel Density Analysis and Shapley Additional Explanations. Our findings demonstrated that ConvLSTM network yielded the best predictive performance with the lowest average RMSE of 13.875 and MAE values of 18.393. RF model generated an underestimated outcome while LSTM model had an overestimated one. In addition, climatic conditions, intensification of livestock keeping and socioeconomic status were identified as the dominant factors that drive the occurrence of HB in Shaanbei Plateau, Guanzhong Plain, and Shaannan Region, respectively. This work provided a comprehensive understanding of the potential risk of HB epidemics in Northwest China driven by both anthropogenic activities and natural environment, which can support further practice in disease control and prevention.

Assessment of the quality of life of GPs in situations of high epidemic risk

The purpose is to assess the characteristics of the decrease in the quality of life of GPs working in a specialized COVID-19 hospital, a multidisciplinary hospital, and a poly clinic during the pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection COVID-19, as well as early diagnosis, prediction, and prevention of a decrease in the quality of life in this category of medical workers. Material and research methods. The study was carried out on the basis of the Department of Occupational Diseases and Clinical Pharmacology named after honored scientist of the Russian Federation professor V. V. Kosarev, FSBEI HE Samara State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and the Department of Occupational Pathology, Regional Center for Occupational Pathology of the Samara City Hospital No. 5. The study was carried out within the framework of a complex theme «Systematic ap proach to early diagnosis, prevention, and prediction of the impact of low-intensity pro duction factors on workers’ health» of the Department of Occupational Diseases and Clinical Pharmacology named after honored scientist of the Russian Federation profes sor V. V. Kosarev, FSBEI HE Samara State Medical University (state registration number AAAA-A18‑118122190069‑6, registration date — December 21, 2018). The study was approved by the local ethics committee of the FSBEI HE Samara State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation on November 23, 2021. The study included the following groups of examined medical workers: group 1 consisted of physicians of internal medicine working in a COVID hospital (in the «red zone») (n = 111); group 2 included GPs working in a multidisciplinary hospital (n = 106); group 3 consisted of GPs working in a polyclinic (n = 102); group 4 was the control group (n = 190) comprising employees of engineering, technical, and economic specialties not relat ed to work in medical organizations (healthy). To assess the psychophysiological state and quality of life of medical workers during the pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection COVID-19, the SF-36 questionnaire [J. E. Ware, 1993], designed to study all components of the quality of life, was used. The obtained data were processed using the Statistica package from StatSoft (USA). Results. The professional activities of GPs providing medical care in the «red zone», mul  tidisciplinary hospitals, and clinics are associated with the exposure of physicians to a number of risk factors in the working environment and the labor process, related to the provision of regular or occasional care to infected COVID-19 patients, which, under con ditions of exposure to an increased level of occupational stress, leads to a decrease in the quality of life in these categories of health workers. The decrease in the quality of life among medical workers in medical institutions of various profiles during the pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection COVID-19 is due to the fact that health workers faced many additional difficulties during this period: sleep deprivation, stress, strain, and chronic fa tigue. Chronic fatigue can affect behavior, communication, learning, and decision-making, which overall leads to a decrease in the qualit y of life of medical workers. Conclusion. Thus, the obtained data indicate that when identifying risk factors for a de crease in the quality of life in medical workers working in situations of high epidemic risk, there is the need to use specialized rehabilitation measures with relaxation techniques, art therapy, as well as professional adaptation programs, physiotherapeutic techniques, such as electrosleep and reflexology, and, if possible, resort treatment in health care centers, local sanatoriums, etc. with visits to psychotherapy offices, as well as psychopharmaco logical medications.

Occupation and stress: professional burnout of GPs depending on the profile of the medical institution in situations of high epidemic risk

Introduction. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, medical workers turned out to be the most vulnerable category of the population in terms of the risk of developing psycho-emotional disorders. Objective. To establish the characteristics of the psycho-emotional state among general practitioners of COVID hospitals, multidisciplinary hospitals, and polyclinics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and methods. The study included: group 1 – general practitioners of COVID hos pitals (n=111); group 2 – internists of multidisciplinary hospitals (n=106); group 3 – GPs working in polyclinics (n=102); group 4 – control group (healthy) (n=190). The assess ment of professional burnout was carried out by means of the Maslach Burnout Inventory, developed by American psychologists C. Maslach and S.E. Jackson, in adaptation by N.E. Vodopyanova and E.S. Starchenkova, as well as using V.V. Boyko’s questionnaire. The study utilized an integrative anxiety test to investigate the formation of psycho-emotional disorders in internists during the pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection. The quality of life was determined by means of the SF-36 questionnaire. The processing of the ob tained data was carried out using the Statistica package from StatSof t (USA). Results. It has been established that the work of general practitioners during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with the impact of occupational stress related to caring for in fected patients on medical workers, as well as with significant changes in work regarding aspects of organization and safety, which contributed to an increase in the levels of oc cupational stress, professional burnout, and anxiety, and a decrease in the quality of life. Limitations of the study. The study has regional (Samara Region) and professional (in terms of detailing the working conditions in the studied comparison groups) limitations. Conclusions. The work of general practitioners of specialized COVID hospitals, internists of multidisciplinary hospitals, and GPs of polyclinics is associated with an increase in the levels of occupational stress, professional burnout, and anxiety, and a decrease in the quality of life. Notably, psychological changes are most pronounced in employees of specialized COVID hospitals. It is necessary to continue research on the emotional state of medical personnel in order to timely carry out preventive treatment to preserve the health of medical workers.

A demand-driven climate services for health implementation framework: A case study for climate-sensitive diseases in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Here we introduce a demand-driven framework designed to implement climate services in the health sector, with a particular focus on the Caribbean region. Climate services are essential for supporting informed decision-making and response strategies in relation to climate-related health risks. Through collaborative efforts, we are co-producing a climate-driven dengue early warning system (EWS) to target vector-borne diseases effectively. While challenges exist in implementing such systems, EWSs provide valuable tools for managing epidemic risks by predicting potential disease outbreaks in advance. The scarcity of operational climate tools in the health sector underscores the need for increased investment and strategic implementation practices. To address these challenges, a demand-driven framework is proposed, emphasizing strategic planning focused on health intervention development, partnership building, data, communication, human resources, capacity building, and sustainable funding. This framework aims to integrate climate services seamlessly into health systems, thereby enhancing public health resilience and facilitating well-informed decision-making to effectively address climate-sensitive diseases.

A Socio-Political Aspect of Housing and Communal Sanitation in the USSR, 1950s–1960s (Based on Materials of Leningrad and Vyborg)

Introduction. The article examines the interactions between the sanitary service, other departments, and city residents in the 1950s and 1960s to improve sanitary conditions, using the examples of Leningrad and Vyborg. It shows how the level of housing safety increased as the state allocated material resources to service organizations and improved sanitary standards. Methods and materials. The article is based on materials from the State Archive of the Russian Federation, the Central City Archive of St. Petersburg, and the Leningrad Oblast Archive, and a number of newspaper publications. Minutes of meetings, reports and explanatory notes, and citizens’ appeals to various authorities show that littered exits, uncollected cesspools, irregular cleaning of adjoining territories, and mountains of garbage often became a source of epidemics. Analysis. These problems were addressed as communication between government agencies and the public evolved. The legislative framework governing sanitary safety in cities was formed as early as the 1930s. The situation was aggravated by the lack of education of the population, which did not want to comply with sanitary rules. Solving the problem required concerted work by authorities, academics, and community activists. In order to reduce the risks of disease for city residents, city authorities organized trash pickups, lectures for citizens with representatives of sanitation services, etc. Thus, practices were formed to maintain compliance with the necessary norms. Results. The identified features of the implementation of housing and communal sanitation norms give the idea that established communication between government and public organizations was a channel for reducing the risks of epidemics and the comfort of the dwelling. Increased use of specialized machinery that allowed for garbage collection and a number of other problems was able to accelerate sanitation problems. This article illustrates how the risks – the high likelihood of epidemics – forced the state and citizens to seek effective ways to develop and maintain sanitary standards. The successful development of practices was thus related to the development of the necessary infrastructure and the awareness of city residents of the benefits of complying with practices.

Impact on Fatality Rates and Years of Life Lost During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Experience of the Mexican Public Health Incident Management Command

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic challenged health systems worldwide. In Mexico, the Public Health Incident Management Command (COISS) strategy was implemented to improve health care for patients with COVID-19 who required hospitalization. To evaluate the impact of the COISS strategy on case fatality rates (CFR) and years of life lost (YLL) in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The COISS strategy included eight actions implemented in states with high epidemic risk (COISS states). A secondary analysis of the public database from the Mexican Ministry of Health was performed considering patients with confirmed diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The COISS strategy effectiveness was evaluated by its impact on in-hospital CFR and YLL at the beginning (T0) and end (T1) of the third wave, and at the end of the fourth wave (T2) and compared to states without intervention (non-COISS states). At T0, COISS states showed a higher CFR for hospitalized patients than non-COISS states, which decreased after the strategy implementation. After correction for baseline conditions, lower relative CFR at T1 and T2, compared to T0, and a protective effect in different age groups, especially in those ≥65 years, were found in hospitalized patients in COISS states. The COISS strategy was associated with lower CFR in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at both T1 and T2. At T0, YLLs were higher in COISS states, but there were no significant differences at T1 and T2. COISS interventions effectively reduced CFR in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, providing protection to vulnerable patients and reducing the YLL gap.

Features of epidemic risks in the work of the endoscopic service of the pulmonological center

Features of epidemic risks in the work of the endoscopic service of the pulmonological center

Effectiveness of Stem Rust Resistance Genes in Southern Russia

ABSTRACTWheat stem rust (caused by Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici) is a damaging disease widespread in all grain‐producing regions of the world. In this work, the effectiveness of Sr genes was analysed under field conditions in the southern region of Russia (Krasnodar Krai, Stavropol Krai and Rostov Oblast) during 2016‐2021. The data were obtained using a set of 46 isogenic lines and varieties with artificial inoculation. The Sr31 gene proved absolute effectiveness in the field. Effective (1R–10R) Sr genes were the following: 5, 12, 35 and 37; moderately effective (10MR–30MR) Sr genes: 1, 6, 9g, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 32, 33, 38 and WLD. Lines with Sr genes 7a, 7b, 8a, 8b, 9a, 9b, 9d, 9e, 9f, 16, 17, 19, 21, 26, 27, 29, 30, 36, 39, 40, 44, Dp2, Gt and Tmp were ineffective in the adult plant phase (30MS–70S). Polymorphism of infection types and disease severity was noted for most of these lines in different years. Ongoing analysis of the efficiency of Sr genes in the region is important to prevent the risk of epidemics, and lines with stem rust resistance genes that have shown efficiency can be used as donors in breeding programmes.

Loneliness and Mental Health During the First Covid-19 Lockdown in Romania

During the spring of 2020, Romania entered its first lockdown in response to the growing Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic’s impact on mental health was thus superimposed on an already epidemic risk of loneliness in developed countries. The purpose of this article was thus to measure the impact of perceived social isolation during the national lockdown on emotional distress among the general population, while also considering potential risk or buffering factors like social media usage, and romantic relationships. Featuring a cross-sectional design, data was collected from 180 participants, aged 20 – 60 years using an online questionnaire which included the DASS-21 scale, the UCLA Loneliness Scale and the Intimate Relationships Scale. Our results indicated that loneliness significantly predicted depressive, anxious and stress symptoms even when correcting for gender and age. Distancing measures had no significant effect on couples, though differences in depression and loneliness were found between those with no partner, and those who described minimal impact of social distancing measures. Number of social media sites used predicted greater depressive and anxious symptoms, even when correcting for age and gender, whereas partner intimacy presented as a protective factor for loneliness. Given the many public, individual and dyadic factors involved in mental health during a pandemic, the implications for further studies are discussed.

Methodology for assessing the impact of emergencies on the spread of infectious diseases

The spread of infectious diseases is significantly influenced by emergencies, particularly military conflicts, which disrupt healthcare systems and increase the risks of epidemics. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated these challenges, causing environmental damage, mass displacement, and the breakdown of healthcare services, all of which contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. This study aims to develop a comprehensive methodology for assessing the impact of emergencies on the spread of infectious diseases, focusing on the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The object of this study is to address epidemic threats posed by emergencies, particularly the increased spread of infectious diseases due to war-related disruptions. The subject of this study is methods and models of infectious disease transmission under conditions of emergencies, emphasizing the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The tasks of this study are to provide an analysis of the current state of research and develop a methodology for assessing the impact of emergencies on the spread of infectious diseases. The proposed methodology includes several key components. Comprehensive data from public health organizations includes infectious disease statistics, demographic shifts, healthcare disruptions, and environmental factors exacerbated by emergencies. Data preprocessing removes inconsistencies, standardization of formats, and normalization for population size differences. Machine learning models, including convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks, have been developed to simulate the spread of diseases based on demographic, environmental, and healthcare-related variables. Deep learning models analyze spatial and temporal patterns, whereas compartmental models such as SIR estimate changes in reproductive numbers (R₀ and Re). Additionally, models of excess mortality incorporate mixed effects to account for regional and time-based variations. The methodology incorporates real-time monitoring of epidemic threats using real-time data from multiple sources, enabling dynamic assessments of disease spread and facilitating predictive modeling. The models were trained on historical data and validated using cross-validation techniques to ensure robustness and reliability, with a specific focus on the pre- and post-invasion phases in Ukraine.Results: The study provides a comprehensive framework for collecting and processing data on infectious diseases and epidemic threats in emergencies. The proposed model introduces advanced machine learning and epidemiological models trained on pre- and post-invasion data to analyze disease transmission patterns and forecast future epidemic dynamics. Conclusion: The proposed methodology addresses current gaps in infectious disease during emergencies by integrating real-time data and machine learning techniques. This research improves decision-making in public health management and biosafety during crises, particularly in war-affected regions like Ukraine.

Future worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic predictions by Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation method.

Accurate estimation of pandemic likelihood in every US state of interest and at any time. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious illness with a high potential for global dissemination and low rates of fatality and morbidity, placing some strains on national public health systems. This research intends to benchmark a novel technique, that enables hazard assessment, based on available clinical data, and dynamically observed patient numbers while taking into account pertinent territorial and temporal mapping. Multicentre, population-based, and biostatistical strategies have been utilized to process raw/unfiltered medical survey data. The expansion of extreme value statistics from the univariate to the bivariate situation meets with numerous challenges. First, the univariate extreme value types theorem cannot be directly extended to the bivariate (2D) case,-not to mention challenges with system dimensionality higher than 2D. Assessing outbreak risks of future outbreaks in any nation/region of interest. Existing bio-statistical approaches do not always have the benefits of effectively handling large regional dimensionality and cross-correlation between various regional observations. These methods deal with temporal observations of multi-regional phenomena. Apply contemporary, novel statistical/reliability techniques directly to raw/unfiltered clinical data. The current study outlines a novel bio-system hazard assessment technique that is particularly suited for multi-regional environmental, bio, and public health systems, observed over a representative period. With the use of the Gaidai multivariate hazard assessment approach, epidemic outbreak spatiotemporal risks may be properly assessed. Based on raw/unfiltered clinical survey data, the Gaidai multivariate hazard assessment approach may be applied to a variety of public health applications. The study's primary finding was an assessment of the risks of epidemic outbreaks, along with a matching confidence range. Future global COVID-19/severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV2) epidemic risks have been examined in the current study; however, COVID-19/SARS-COV2 infection transmission mechanisms have not been discussed.

Distress and quality of life of health workers in situations of high epidemic risk

Distress and quality of life of health workers in situations of high epidemic risk

Quantifying the risk of spillover reduction programs for human health.

Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection.

Assessment of epidemic risk state and its change trend of public hospital in underdeveloped area in different stages.

Epidemics are sudden and rapidly spreading. Hospitals in underdeveloped areas are particularly vulnerable in case of an outbreak. This paper aims to assess the epidemic risk state and its change trend of hospitals in different epidemic stages, identify the key factors affecting hospital epidemic risk change, provide priority reference for hospital epidemic risk control, and enhance the hospital's ability to respond to sudden epidemics. Based on Grounded theory, the epidemic risk indicators that affect hospital safety are summarized. The concept of epidemic risk state and its random state space is proposed according to Markov chain theory. The impact of each indicator on the random risk state and its change is comprehensively assessed from two aspects: risk occurrence probability and risk loss. Finally, the assessment of the hospital epidemic risk state and its change at different stages is achieved. The stable risk states of public hospitals in underdeveloped areas in non-epidemic stage t0, early epidemic stage t1, and outbreak stage t2 are , , and , respectively. In non-epidemic stage, the key factor in improving the hospital epidemic risk state is emergency funding. In early epidemic stage, the key factors in improving the hospital epidemic risk state are the training of medical staff in epidemic prevention skills and the management of public health. In outbreak state, the key factor in improving the hospital epidemic risk state is the training of medical staff in epidemic prevention skills and psychological awareness. This paper proposes the concept of epidemic risk state, providing an effective assessment method for the epidemic risk state and its change trend in public hospitals. According to the assessment, public hospitals in underdeveloped areas in different epidemic stages should adopt different risk control strategies to improve their current risk state. Blind risk control is inefficient and may even cause the epidemic risk to transition toward a more dangerous state.