Environmental Wind Profile Research Articles

Assessing the Comparative Effects of Storm-Relative Helicity Components within Right-Moving Supercell Environments

Abstract Supercell thunderstorms develop low-level rotation via tilting of environmental horizontal vorticity (ωh) by the updraft. This rotation induces dynamic lifting that can stretch near-surface vertical vorticity into a tornado. Low-level updraft rotation is generally thought to scale with 0–500 m storm-relative helicity (SRH): the combination of storm-relative flow, |SRF|, |ωh|, and cosϕ (where ϕ is the angle between SRF and ωh). It is unclear how much influence each component of SRH has in intensifying the low-level mesocyclone. This study surveys these three components using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to distill 15 906 proximity soundings for observed right-moving supercells. Statistical analyses reveal the component most highly correlated to SRH and to streamwise vorticity (ωs) in the observed profiles is |ωh|. Furthermore, |ωh| and |SRF| are themselves highly correlated due to their shared dependence on the hodograph length. The representative profiles produced by the SOMs were combined with a common thermodynamic profile to initialize quasi-realistic supercells in a cloud model. The simulations reveal that, across a range of real-world profiles, intense low-level mesocyclones are most closely linked to ωh and SRF, while the angle between them appears to be mostly inconsequential. Significance Statement About three-fourths of all tornadoes are produced by rotating thunderstorms (supercells). When the part of the storm near cloud base (approximately 1 km above the ground) rotates more strongly, the chance of a tornado dramatically increases. The goal of this study is to identify the simplest characteristic(s) of the environmental wind profile that can be used to forecast the likelihood of strong cloud-base rotation. This study concludes that the most important ingredients for storm rotation are the magnitudes of the horizontal vertical wind shear between the surface and 500 m and the storm inflow wind, irrespective of their relative directions. This finding may lead to improved operational identification of environments favoring tornado formation.

The Influence of the Diurnal Cycle in Wind Shear and Thermodynamics on Squall Lines in the West African Monsoon

Abstract The West African monsoon has a clear diurnal cycle in boundary layer properties, synoptic flow, and moist convection. A nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) brings cool, moist air into the continent and we hypothesize that it may support storms by providing vertical wind shear and a source of moisture. We use idealized simulations to investigate how the mean diurnal cycle in temperature and humidity compared with that of the wind shear impacts on mature squall lines. Thermodynamic diurnal changes dominate those of the winds, although when isolated the LLJ wind is favorable for more intense systems. Bulk characteristics of the storms, including in-cloud upward mass flux and—if precipitation evaporation is accounted for—total surface rain rates, correlate well with the system-relative inflow of convectively unstable air and moisture into the storms. Mean updraft speeds and mean rainfall rates over the storms do not correlate as well with system-relative inflows due to variations in storm morphology such as cold pool intensity. We note that storms tend to move near the speed of the African easterly jet and so maximize the inflow of convectively unstable air. Our results explain the observed diurnal cycle in organized moist convection, with the hours from 1800 to 0000 UTC being the most favorable. Storms are more likely to die after this, despite the LLJ supporting them, with the environment becoming more favorable again by midday. Significance Statement Large organized storms dominate rainfall in the West African Sahel, but models struggle to predict them at the correct time of day and the underlying mechanisms that control their timings are not well understood. Using idealized simulations, we show that the temperature and humidity of the late evening are favorable for such storms whereas inflow from the low-level jet supports storms overnight. Storm inflows of available energy and moisture predict upward mass transport and total rainfall rates, whereas the strength of the storm’s cold pool is important for storm structure and intensity. Our results demonstrate how the environmental wind profile (which varies throughout the day) interacts with internal storm dynamics, posing a major challenge to parameterized models.

Novel Boundary Conditions for Investigation of Environmental Wind Profile Induced due to Raised Terrains and Their Influence on Pedestrian Winds Authors

In comparison to the terrains on planes, where wind follows a conventional profile. On interaction with a raised terrain like a hill or a mountain, the wind gets an added component of velocity in the vertical direction. This added vertical component gives air parcel a couple like moment, that causes the wind to twist. This twisted wind, alters the flow conditions, especially at the pedestrian level, and demands investigation. The authors in this research have developed a set of conditions, to recreate the complete 3D flow field of a twisted wind profile, on interaction with an isolated building using commercial CFD code FLUENT, to make it suitable for faster adoption by industry. The conditions are derived to ensure horizontal homogeneity in the domain. Lateral wind speed along altitude is applied in the computational domain to sustain the twist throughout the empty domain and subsequently with the structure within the domain. The results are validated with the wind tunel experiments of Tse et al. [5] for validation and comparison. The results suggest twisted wind alters pedestrian wind profile in comparison to conventional wind profile by shifting the high-pressure zones along the vertical twist angle, indicating lower intensity eddies in the wake on the structure, with possible negative effect on thermal comfort.

Low-level Updraft Intensification in Response to Environmental Wind Profiles

AbstractSupercell storms can develop a “dynamical response” whereby upward accelerations in the lower troposphere amplify as a result of rotationally induced pressure falls aloft. These upward accelerations likely modulate a supercell’s ability to stretch near-surface vertical vorticity to achieve tornadogenesis. This study quantifies such a dynamical response as a function of environmental wind profiles commonly found near supercells. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to identify recurring low-level wind profile patterns from 20,194 model-analyzed, near-supercell soundings. The SOM nodes with larger 0–500 m storm-relative helicity (SRH) and streamwise vorticity (ωs) corresponded to higher observed tornado probabilities. The distilled wind profiles from the SOMs were used to initialize idealized numerical simulations of updrafts. In environments with large 0–500 m SRH and large ωs, a rotationally induced pressure deficit, increased dynamic lifting, and a strengthened updraft resulted. The resulting upward-directed accelerations were an order of magnitude stronger than typical buoyant accelerations. At 500 m AGL, this dynamical response increased the vertical velocity by up to 25 m s–1, vertical vorticity by up to 0.2 s–1, and pressure deficit by up to 5 hPa. This response specifically augments the near-ground updraft (the midlevel updraft properties are almost identical across the simulations). However, dynamical responses only occurred in environments where 0–500 m SRH and ωs exceeded 110 m2 s–2 and 0.015 s–1, respectively. The presence vs. absence of this dynamical response may explain why environments with higher 0–500 m SRH and ωs correspond to greater tornado probabilities.

The Effect of Surface Drag Strength on Mesocyclone Intensification and Tornadogenesis in Idealized Supercell Simulations

AbstractA suite of six idealized supercell simulations is performed in which the surface drag coefficient Cd is varied over a range of values from 0 to 0.05 to represent a variety of water and land surfaces. The experiments employ a new technique for enforcing a three-force balance among the pressure gradient, Coriolis, and frictional forces so that the environmental wind profile can remain unchanged throughout the simulation. The initial low-level mesocyclone lowers toward the ground, intensifies, and produces a tornado in all experiments with Cd ≥ 0.002, with the intensification occurring earlier for larger Cd. In the experiment with Cd = 0, the low-level mesocyclone remains comparatively weak throughout the simulation and does not produce a tornado. Vertical cross sections through the simulated tornadoes reveal an axial downdraft that reaches the ground only in experiments with smaller Cd, as well as stronger corner flow in experiments with larger Cd. Material circuits are initialized enclosing the low-level mesocyclone in each experiment and traced backward in time. Circulation budgets for these circuits implicate surface drag acting in the inflow sector of the supercell as having generated important positive circulation, and its relative contribution increases with Cd. However, the circulation generation is similar in magnitude for the experiments with Cd = 0.02 and 0.05, and the tornado in the latter experiment is weaker. This suggests the possible existence of an optimal range of Cd values for promoting intense tornadoes within our experimental configuration.

A Method to Control the Environmental Wind Profile in Idealized Simulations of Deep Convection with Surface Friction

Abstract In idealized, horizontally homogeneous, cloud model simulations of convective storms, the action of surface friction can substantially modify the near-ground environmental wind profile over time owing to the lack of a large-scale pressure gradient force to balance the frictional force together with the Coriolis force. This situation is undesirable for many applications where the impact of an unchanging environmental low-level wind shear on the simulated storm behavior is the focus of investigation, as it introduces additional variability in the experiment and accordingly complicates interpretation of the results. Partly for this reason, many researchers have opted to perform simulations with free-slip lower boundary conditions, which with appropriate boundary conditions allows for more precise control of the large-scale environmental wind profile. Yet, some recent studies have advocated important roles of surface friction in storm dynamics. Here, a simple method is introduced to effectively maintain any chosen environmental wind profile in idealized storm simulations in the presence of surface friction and both resolved and subgrid-scale turbulent mixing. The method is demonstrated through comparisons of simulations of a tornadic supercell with and without surface friction and with or without invoking the new method. The method is compared with similar techniques in the literature and potential extensions and other applications are discussed.

Correcting Storm Displacement Errors in Ensembles Using the Feature Alignment Technique (FAT)

Abstract A goal of Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) is to develop forecasting systems that produce accurate analyses and forecasts of severe weather to be utilized in operational warning settings. Recent WoF-related studies have indicated the need to alleviate storm displacement errors in both analyses and forecasts. A potential solution to reduce these errors is the feature alignment technique (FAT), which mitigates displacement errors between observations and model fields while satisfying constraints. This study merges the FAT with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and uses observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to vet the FAT as a potential alleviator of forecast errors arising from storm displacement errors. An idealized truth run of a supercell on a 250-m grid is used to generate pseudoradar observations, which are assimilated onto a 2-km grid using a 50-member ensemble to produce analyses and forecasts of the supercell. The FAT uses composite reflectivity to generate a 2D field of displacement vectors that is used to align the model variables with the observations prior to each analysis cycle. The FAT is tested by displacing the initial model background fields from the observations or modifying the environmental wind profile to create a storm motion bias in the forecast cycles. The FAT–LETKF performance is evaluated and compared to that of the LETKF alone. The FAT substantially reduces errors in storm intensity, location, and structure during data assimilation and subsequent forecasts. These supercell OSSEs provide the foundation for future experiments with real data and more complex events.

The Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Environments With Time‐Varying Vertical Wind Shear

AbstractThis study describes ensembles of idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations conducted within a new modeling framework that allows for time‐varying environments. These simulations are used to examine the predictability implications of exposing a TC to environmental wind profiles with different structures and magnitudes of vertical wind shear. In moderate shear magnitudes, the TCs exposed to more deeply distributed shear are weaker and exhibit a more uncertain intensity evolution than TCs exposed to shallow‐upper level shear. The weaker mean intensity and higher uncertainty are found to be associated with a bifurcation in the vortex tilt response. Structural predictability time scales, computed as the time it takes for errors in the amplitude and phase of azimuthal asymmetries of radar reflectivity to saturate, are generally between 2 and 3 days for low‐wave‐number asymmetries. These asymmetries are slightly more predictable in deeply distributed shear and in the rainband region due to the larger vortex tilt magnitudes of many ensemble members providing more robust forcing for a quasi‐stationary rainband feature. Once the magnitude of vertical wind shear increases to universally destructive levels at the end of the simulations, intensity errors begin to decrease and low‐wave‐number structural errors desaturate as the quasi‐stationary rainband becomes a consistent feature in members of both ensembles. The most significant error desaturation occurs in TCs previously exposed to shallow‐upper level shear. These results suggest that the intensity and precipitation structure are more difficult to forecast when a TC is exposed to moderate and deeply distributed vertical wind shear.

Climatological Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

Abstract Although infrequent, tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify under moderate vertical wind shear (VWS). A potential hypothesis is that other factors—associated with both the TC and its environment—can help offset the effects of VWS and aid intensification. This hypothesis was tested with a large dataset of 6-hourly best tracks and environmental diagnostics for global TCs between 1982 and 2014. Moderate VWS was objectively defined as 4.5–11.0 m s−1, which represents the 25th–75th percentiles of the global distribution of 200–850-hPa VWS magnitude around TCs. Intensifying events (i.e., unique 6-hourly data points) were compared against steady-state events to determine which TC and environmental characteristics favored intensification under moderate VWS. This comparison showed that intensifying events were significantly stronger, closer to the equator, larger, and moving with a more westward motion than steady-state events. Furthermore, intensifying events moved within environments characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures, greater midtropospheric water vapor, and more easterly VWS than steady-state events. Storm-relative, shear-relative composites suggested that the coupling between water vapor, surface latent heat fluxes, and storm-relative flow asymmetries was conducive for less dry air intrusions and more symmetric rainfall in intensifying events. Last, the comparison showed no systematic differences between environmental wind profiles possibly due to the large temporal variability of VWS.

A Statistical Perspective on Wind Profiles and Vertical Wind Shear in Tropical Cyclone Environments of the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract A statistical analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) environmental wind profiles is conducted in order to better understand how vertical wind shear influences TC intensity change. The wind profiles are computed from global atmospheric reanalyses around the best track locations of 7554 TC cases in the Northern Hemisphere tropics. Mean wind profiles within each basin exhibit significant differences in the magnitude and direction of vertical wind shear. Comparisons between TC environments and randomly selected “non-TC” environments highlight the synoptic regimes that support TCs in each basin, which are often characterized by weaker deep-layer shear. Because weaker deep-layer shear may not be the only aspect of the environmental flow that makes a TC environment more favorable for TCs, two new parameters are developed to describe the height and depth of vertical shear. Distributions of these parameters indicate that, in both TC and non-TC environments, vertical shear most frequently occurs in shallow layers and in the upper troposphere. Linear correlations between each shear parameter and TC intensity change show that shallow, upper-level shear is slightly more favorable for TC intensification. But these relationships vary by basin and neither parameter independently explains more than 5% of the variance in TC intensity change between 12 and 120 h. As such, the shear height and depth parameters in this study do not appear to be viable predictors for statistical intensity prediction, though similar measures of midtropospheric vertical wind shear may be more important in particularly challenging intensity forecasts.

A Balanced Tropical Cyclone Test Case for AGCMs with Background Vertical Wind Shear

Abstract This paper presents a balanced tropical cyclone (TC) test case designed to improve current understanding of how atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) configurations affect simulated TC development and behavior. It consists of an analytic initial condition comprising two independently balanced components. The first provides a vortical TC seed, while the second adds a planetary-scale zonal flow with height-dependent velocity and imposes background vertical wind shear (VWS) on the TC seed. The environmental flow satisfies the steady-state hydrostatic primitive equations in spherical coordinates and is in balance with other background field variables (e.g., temperature, surface geopotential). The evolution of idealized TCs in the test case framework is illustrated in 10-day simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.1 (CAM 5.1.1). Environmental wind profiles with different magnitudes, directions, and vertical inflection points are applied to ensure that the technique is robust to changes in the VWS characteristics. The well-known shear-induced intensity change and structural asymmetry in tropical cyclones are well captured. Sensitivity of TC evolution to small perturbations in the initial vortex is also quantitatively addressed to validate the numerical robustness of the technique. It is concluded that the enhanced TC test case can be used to evaluate the impact of model choice (e.g., resolution, physical parameterizations) on the simulation and representation of TC-like vortices in AGCMs.

The Simulated Structure and Evolution of a Quasi-Idealized Warm-Season Convective System with a Training Convective Line

Abstract This study details the development and use of an idealized modeling framework to simulate a quasi-stationary heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS). A 36-h composite progression of atmospheric fields computed from 26 observed warm-season heavy-rain-producing training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS) MCSs was used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for a numerical simulation of this MCS archetype. A realistic TL/AS MCS initiated and evolved within a simulated mesoscale environment that featured a low-level jet terminus, maximized low-level warm-air advection, and an elevated maximum in convective available potential energy. The first stage of MCS evolution featured an eastward-moving trailing-stratiform-type MCS that generated a surface cold pool. The initial system was followed by rearward off-boundary development, where a new line of convective cells simultaneously redeveloped north of the surface cold pool boundary. Backbuilding persisted on the western end of the new line, with individual convective cells training over a fixed geographic region. The final stage was characterized by a deepening and southward surge of the cold pool, accompanied by the weakening and slow southward movement of the training line. The low-level vertical wind shear profile favored kinematic lifting along the southeastern cold pool flank over the southwestern flank, potentially explaining why convection propagated with (did not propagate with) the former (latter) outflow boundaries. The morphological features of the simulated MCS are common among observed cases and may, therefore, be generalizable. These results suggest that they are emergent from fundamental features of the large-scale environment, such as persistent regional low-level lifting, and with the vertical environmental wind profile characteristic to TL/AS systems.

EnKF Assimilation of High-Resolution, Mobile Doppler Radar Data of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, Supercell into a Numerical Cloud Model

Abstract Mobile Doppler radar data, along with observations from a nearby Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), are assimilated with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique into a nonhydrostatic, compressible numerical weather prediction model to analyze the evolution of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, tornadic supercell. The storm is simulated via assimilation of reflectivity and velocity data in an initially horizontally homogeneous environment whose parameters are believed to be a close approximation to those of the Greensburg supercell inflow sector. Experiments are conducted to test analysis sensitivity to mobile radar data availability and to the mean environmental near-surface wind profile, which was changing rapidly during the simulation period. In all experiments, a supercell with similar location and evolution to the observed storm is analyzed, but the simulated storm’s characteristics differ markedly. The assimilation of mobile Doppler radar data has a much greater impact on the resulting analyses, particularly at low altitudes (≤2 km), than modifications to the near-surface environmental wind profile. Differences in the analyzed updrafts, vortices, cold pool structure, rear-flank gust front structure, and observation-space diagnostics are documented. An analyzed vortex corresponding to the enhanced Fujita scale 5 (EF-5) Greensburg tornado is stronger and deeper in experiments in which mobile (higher resolution) Doppler radar data are included in the assimilation. This difference is linked to stronger analyzed horizontal convergence, which in turn is associated with increased stretching of vertical vorticity. Changing the near-surface wind profile appears to impact primarily the updraft strength, availability of streamwise vorticity for tilting into the vertical, and low-level vortex strength and longevity.

Retrieved Pressure Field and Its Influence on the Propagation of a Supercell Thunderstorm

An analysis of the observed propagation of the Garden City supercell storm based on data collected by an airborne Doppler radar is presented. The environmental wind profile was characterized by a straight hodograph. Wind syntheses were used to retrieve the perturbation pressure fields in order to isolate the important dynamical processes controlling storm movement. The pressure perturbations produced by the linear and nonlinear effects were comparable in magnitude. The rightward bias in storm motion was primarily a result of the forcing produced by the vertical gradients of perturbation pressure. This finding is consistent with the results based on numerical simulations. The vertical gradients of the linear perturbation pressure were important in determining storm motion early in its life cycle; subsequently, the nonlinear effects dominated. A decomposition of the nonlinear forcing into contributions from cyclostrophically balanced flow and nonlinear shear was also presented. This partitioning revealed that both the forcing produced by the mesocyclone and the horizontal shear that was baroclinically produced by the gradient of buoyancy along the flanks of the updraft were important effects to consider.

Convective Momentum Transport over the Tropical Pacific: Budget Estimates

Abstract ECMWF and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses are used to calculate convective momentum transport (CMT) as a momentum budget residual over several tropical oceanic convective regions, including the TOGA COARE Intensive Flux Array (IFA). Sources of uncertainty are quantified through intercomparison, and methods for minimizing uncertainty are discussed. The authors examine how the environmental shear of the time-mean, and time-varying, flow in these regions is modified by CMT, and compare the budget results with some parameterizations. The zonal residual is a significant term in the time-mean reanalysis budgets in all regions below 850 mb. Since the subcloud turbulent layer typically does not extend above 940 mb, this suggests a possibly important role for CMT by shallow convection. In the rest of the troposphere, the residuals are small, but a slight tendency for downgradient transport of zonal momentum, and smoothing of the environmental wind profile, is suggested. The main budget uncertainties associated with ...

Modeling of a Tropical Squall Line in Two Dimensions: Sensitivity to Radiation and Comparison with a Midlatitude Case

Abstract A two-dimensional cloud model is used to study a tropical oceanic squall-line system. The dynamical and microphysical structures of the simulated squall-line system and the impact of environmental wind profiles on these structures are presented. The influence of the microphysics treatment on cloud radiative properties and the sensitivity of this simulated system to radiation is also investigated. In addition, partitioned heat, moisture and water budgets, and two radiative transfer schemes are used to assess the role of anvil clouds on the simulated system and on the assumption used in a bulk parameterization for cloud radiative properties. The comparison with a midlatitude study is also made to show its climatic implication. The major conclusions are as follows. The simulated tropical squall-line system replicates many observed features. A transition zone in the simulated multicellular storm is primarily caused by the jetlike wind profile, while it is due to longwave radiation in the midlatitude ...

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.

The Pre-storm Environment of Midlatitude Prefrontal Squall Lines

Abstract Composite environmental profiles Of wind and temperature are presented for squall line cases that are spatially removed from frontal disturbances. The motions of the squall lines are inferred from radar data, and the mean environmental wind profile is presented in a coordinate system relative to the squall line. The dataset consists of 60 cases from all seasons and from various geographical regions of the continental United States. The results are compared to a similar study by Bluestein and Jain.