Environmental Carrying Capacity Research Articles

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity and driving factors of PM2.5 in China: A natural and socioeconomic perspective.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the major atmospheric pollutants, has a significant impact on human health. However, the determinant power of natural and socioeconomic factors on the spatial-temporal variation of PM2.5 pollution is controversial in China. In this study, we explored spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of PM2.5 through 252 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2019, based on the spatial autocorrelation and geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR). PM2.5 concentrations showed a significant downward trend, with a decline rate of 3.58 μg m-3 a-1, and a 26.49% decrease in 2019 compared to 2015, Eastern and Central China were the two regions with the highest PM2.5 concentrations. The driving force of socioeconomic factors on PM2.5 concentrations was slightly higher than that of natural factors. Population density had a positive significant driving effect on PM2.5 concentrations, and precipitation was the negative main driving factor. The two main driving factors (population density and precipitation) showed that the driving capability in northern region was stronger than that in southern China. North China and Central China were the regions of largest decline, and the reason for the PM2.5 decline might be the transition from a high environmental pollution-based industrial economy to a resource-clean high-tech economy since the implementation the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013. We need to fully consider the coordinated development of population size and local environmental carrying capacity in terms of control of PM2.5 concentrations in the future. This research is helpful for policy-makers to understand the distribution characteristics of PM2.5 emission and put forward effective policy to alleviate haze pollution.

A new method for subsea tunnel site selection based on environmental bearing capacity.

Engineering site selection is an essential and systematic work in the early engineering construction stage. At present, the subsea tunnel site selection mainly depends on manual experience. There is still a lack of subsea tunnel site selection systems based on environmental impact. This study develops a comprehensive site selection evaluation system based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy evaluation method for the subsea tunnel site selection. It is a multi-indicator mathematical model evaluation system. On this basis, the ecological site selection method of the subsea tunnel is further studied, an indicator system for evaluating the environmental carrying capacity of the island is established, and the site selection results of the subsea tunnel based on the environmental indicators are obtained. We compared the site selection results of the two methods. The results show that the conventional method and the ecological site selection method based on environmental indicators can well carry out the site selection of subsea tunnels. The two methods take into account both the overall and local optimum of the subsea tunnel route and organically combine the overall and local objectives. This way provides a reference for the design and construction of the subsea tunnel in the future and points out the direction for the site selection of other large-scale projects with significant environmental impact.

Spatio-Temporal Changes of Vegetation Cover and Its Influencing Factors in Northeast China from 2000 to 2021

The foundation of study on regional environmental carrying capacity is the detection of vegetation changes. A case of Northeast China, we, with the support of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of MOD13A3 (MOD13A3-NDVI), use a three-dimensional vegetation cover model (3DFVC) to acquire vegetation cover from 2000 to 2021. Vegetation trends are then monitored by the spatio-temporal analysis models including the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Sen’s slope (Sen), the Mann-Kendall test (MK) and the Hurst index (Hurst). Additionally, we, through the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model (MGWR), explore the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation response to its influencing factors. On the basis of this, it is by introducing the structural equation model (SEM) that we figure out the mechanisms of vegetation response to climate and human activity. The main results are as follows: (1) Compared with the dimidiate pixel model (FVC), 3DFVC, to some extent, weaken the influence of terrain on vegetation cover extraction with a good applicability. (2) From 2000 to 2021, the average annual vegetation cover has a fluctuating upward trend (0.03·22a−1, p < 0.05), and spatially vegetation cover is lower in the west and higher in the east with a strong climatic zoning feature. In general, vegetation cover is relatively stable, only 7.08% of the vegetation area with a trend of significant change. (3) In terms of EOF (EOF1+EOF2), EOF1 has a strong spatial heterogeneity but EOF2 has a strong temporal heterogeneity. As for the Hurst index, its mean value, with an anti-persistence feature, is 0.451, illustrating that vegetation is at some risk of degradation in future. (4) MGWR is slightly better than GWR. Vegetation growth is more influenced by the climate (precipitation and temperature) or human activity and less by the terrain or soil. Besides, precipitation plays a leading role on vegetation growth, while temperature plays a moderating role on vegetation growth. What is more, precipitation, on different temperature conditions, shows a different effect on vegetation growth.

How to develop the new urbanization in mineral resources abundant regions in China? A VIKOR-based path matching model

Because of unsustainable problems in traditional urbanization, urbanization development mode is being transformed to new urbanization that is characterized by people-oriented urbanization, ecologic civilization, and economic restructure and industry upgrade. As mineral resources abundant regions (MRARs) often face great challenges in socioeconomic development and ecological environment protection, it is particularly important for them to select the new urbanization path matching with actual situation. Therefore, this paper constructs a path matching model on new urbanization, and takes 18 provincial MRARs as examples for empirical analysis. Results show that some MRARs are matched with more than one new urbanization path; among the total 27 province-times, 16 province-times are suitable for simple type and 17 province-times are suitable for resource-based urbanization path, which shows that weak environmental carrying capacity and poor socioeconomic foundation are the obvious characteristics of MRARs in China. In simple type, the proportion of province-times suitable for comprehensive and central-city urbanization paths is 37.5%, while in intensive type, the proportion is only 18.18%. It means that some MRARs suitable for intensive type, such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan, do not make full use of the advantage of environmental carrying capacity. Based on the path matching results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions. The uniqueness of this paper lies in that a novel new urbanization path matching model is constructed, and this paper uses the VIKOR method to obtain the compromise solution set rather than single solution.

Unsustainable Urban Development Based on Temporary Workers: A Study on the Changes of Immigration in Macau between 1992 and 2019

Macau’s urban development model has many unique characteristics, including expansion of the city through sea reclamation, increasing population mainly through immigration, and economic development driven by the gaming industry. Based on data from the Macau Statistics and Census Service, this study uses the Error Correction representation of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL-ECM) to analyze the impact of urban development on the trends of immigration and labor migration in Macau between 1992 and 2019. Results show that both land area and wage level have positive effects on the number of migrant workers and negative effects on the number of immigrants, indicating that Macau is over-dependent on short-term migrant workers. Macau’s land and human resources are tilted towards the gaming industry, resulting in a decreasing living environment and resident carrying capacity as the city develops. Therefore, this paper suggests that Macau should reduce the cost of city expansion and improve economic diversity through strengthening cooperation with neighboring mainland cities, hence sparing resources to absorb non-local talent and ensuring sustainable urban development.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITY OF ECOTOURISM IN AEK NAULI RESEARCH FOREST, SIMALUNGUN REGENCY, NORTH SUMATERA

Currently, ecotourism has become an important industry because of its rapid development. Many tourism practices have adverse environmental impacts. Due to the increasingly destructive commercialization of the natural resources on which we depend, there are several negative impacts. Aek Nauli Research Forest (ANRF), with an area of 1,900 hectares, is one of the natural tourist destinations around the Lake Toba Tourism area managed by the Aek Nauli Research Institute for Environmental and Forestry Development (BP2LHK). The location of the study is in Girsang District, Sipangan Bolon, Simalungun Regency, North Sumatera Province. The tourist objects are natural panorama, elephant conservation education tour, and siamang animal ape park. On average, the number of visitors of ANRF on regular days is 100-300 visitors/day and on holidays reaches 300-1,700 visitors/day. The increase in the number of visitors is perceived to have an impact on environmental sustainability. This study aims to determine the capacity of the ANRF ecotourism area to accommodate the number of tourists per day simultaneously. The method used is the effective carrying capacity by Cifuentes method based on several stages of analysis, namely Physical Capacity (PCC), Real Capacity (RCC), Management Capacity (MC), and Effective Capacity (ECC). The environmental carrying capacity analysis results showed that the PCC, RCC, ECC were 26,106 visitors/day, 3,007 visitors/day, 2,505 visitors/day respectively while MC was 0.83. This value can be used to advise managers to limit visitors, particularly during peak season, in order to preserve objects and the quality of visits.

Study on the Measures for Optimizing China’s Provincial Territorial Space Based on the Perspective of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity in the New Situation

The comprehensive resource and environment carrying capacity (RECC) evaluation is an important method for measuring the rationality of the population, resource, and environment allocation, which is an important scientific guidance for scientific research and the judgment of regional economic and social development potential and the optimization of the national land spatial pattern. This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of the RECC under the new situation of climate policy and high-quality economic development; it analyzes the factors influencing the RECC, the overall level, the spatial difference, and the carrying status by using the TOPSIS model based on the entropy weight method, and it identifies the shortcomings; then, it analyzes the characteristics of regional dynamic change and sustainable development trend, and finally, it simulates the optimal spatial pattern under the scenario simulated by the FLUS model. The conclusions are as follows: ① the resource factors have the greatest influence on the carrying capacity of the resources and the environment, followed by economic factors. Among them, per capita water resources, forest coverage rate, and health institutions have the highest impact on RECC. ② The overall level of comprehensive RECC from 2015 to 2020 shows an upward trend, and although the positive impact of resource-led provinces on the level of economic development power and RECC is greater than the negative one, the environmental support is the shortcoming of the future development of the regional economy. ③ The overall spatial performance of RECC is characterized as being high in Guanzhong, second in northern Shaanxi, and low in southern Shaanxi. The northern area of Yulin in the Guanzhong Plain City Cluster, which is an important national energy chemical base, is the core of the national-level urbanization development areas, and the northern area of the Guanzhong Plain City Cluster is the key choice of the provincial-level urbanization development areas. The area along the west bank of the Yellow River in the Qinba Mountain area in southern Shaanxi and the Baiyu Mountain area in northern Shaanxi can be positioned as national key ecological function areas.

Evaluating the Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity in Laos Using a Three-Dimensional Tetrahedron Model.

(1) Background: The quantitative evaluation and comprehensive measurement of resources and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) are key links in the study of RECC from classification to synthesis. Laos, as the only landlocked country of Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), is an important economic corridor (i.e., China-MSEA Economic Corridor) of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). (2) Methods: Based on the human settlements index (HSI), resource carrying index (RCI), and socio-economic development index (SDI), here, a three-dimensional tetrahedron model for the comprehensive assessment of RECC with equilibrium significance was constructed, including HSI-based suitability classification, RCI-based restrictive classification, and SDI-based adaptability classification. Taking provinces as the basic unit, we quantitatively assessed and comprehensively evaluated RECC in Laos using a three-dimensional tetrahedron model. (3) Results: The human settlement environment in Laos is mainly characterized by the moderate suitable category (85%), while the high suitability area (merely 5%) supports more than 30% of the total population. Laos had over 90% of its area in good condition in resources and environmental carrying status (surplus or balanced state), translating into more than 95% of the population. The social and economic development level is mainly characterized by low-level development (43%), with nearly 30% of the population living in these low-level areas. The comprehensive bearing state of resources and environment is characterized by surplus, and 85% of the population is distributed in the surplus area, which occupies 63% of the land. (4) Conclusions: It is possible to better explore the adaptation strategies and countermeasures for enhancing RECC in Laos and provide a scientific reference for regional sustainable development. We believe that the three-dimensional tetrahedron method can be applied to quantitatively evaluate and comprehensively measure RECC at larger scale, e.g., the BRI regions.

County-level environmental carrying capacity and spatial suitability of coastal resources: A case study of Zhuanghe, China

The coastal zone is a combination of marine and land ecosystems, which represents the core areas of resource utilization in China. The sustainable development of coastal zones should be based on a deep understanding of their resources. Compared with Europe and North America, knowledge of coastal zone resources is more fragmented in China. In recent years, China has used quantitative models to realize integrated coastal zone management, but the theoretical basis and research methods remained incomplete. To this end, we developed an assessment framework for coastal zone territorial space resources, environmental carrying capacity, and spatial suitability from an integrated coastal zone management perspective. We tested this framework in Zhuanghe City, which is located within the Northeast Asian Economic Circle. The results show that the coastal resources and environmental carrying capacity of Zhuanghe City are mainly in a critical state. Land space in the coastal zone is mainly suitable for development, but the functional suitability of different regions significantly differs as more suitable urban areas are clustered on the coastal plain. The proportion of suitable space for agricultural production is ~50.51% and is mostly concentrated on the eastern coastal plain. The proportion of space with high ecological suitability is 14.17%, but it is concentrated in the northern mountainous area; there is low space for high value fishery production. Evaluation of coastline function shows that coastline suitable for production occupies a relatively high proportion, with a length of ~230.63 km, accounting for 80.92% of the total length of the Zhuanghe coastline. The ecological coastline of Zhuanghe City is occupied by industrial development and urban construction; suitable and unsuitable areas overlap and coastline development functions conflict with each other. Therefore, the coastal zone of Zhuanghe City is under great pressure. In China, coastal cities are the final link of integrated coastal zone management. Our research reveals a previously unreported critical situation in the coastal area of Zhuanghe City, especially in terms of fishery and shoreline utilization, which is worrisome in view of the reported production capacity of the city. Our results offer a reference for improving coastal management practices with the aim of alleviating the conflict between spatial development and protection in coastal areas.

Agricultural Production Space Suitability in China: Spatial Pattern, Influencing Factors and Optimization Strategies.

The paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographic detectors to reveal the spatial pattern of agricultural production space suitability in China, explores the impact mechanism of agricultural production development, and explores the optimization and promotion strategies for the development of regional agricultural production in various regions in the future. The results show that the resource and environmental carrying capacity, and the agricultural production space suitability under the direction of China's agricultural production function, show a 'polarization' development trend in space, with high levels in the southeast and low levels in the northwest, with significant spatial agglomeration. The factors influencing the suitability of agricultural production have significant spatial differentiation laws in the Nine Agricultural Areas of China. Climate change factors are the dominant factors affecting the areas with poor resource endowment and traditional agricultural areas in the northwest. Factors that reflect the level of urbanization are the main factors that affect the agricultural production space suitability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China. China's agricultural production spatial suitability areas can be divided into nine types of suitable geographical areas. In the future, the impacts of climate change and urbanization on agricultural production space should be considered, and strategies should be taken, according to local conditions, in different regions to improve their suitability.

Kajian Daya Dukung Lahan Perkotaan dalam Rangka Optimalisasi Penataan Ruang Kota Bandung

In the context of urban development, it is important to pay attention to the environmental carrying capacity aspect considering that the growth of the urban population with its various activities has led to an increase in the need for space, which is often marked by an increase in the built-up area. If not controlled, this growth can result in an imbalance of urban space requirements with land suitability, indicated by the deficit of urban carrying capacity. This paper aims to describe the condition of land carrying capacity by presenting a series of analyzes related to the urban land suitability and the need for urban space, as well as identification of the status of land carrying capacity in Bandung City. Using a descriptive-quantitative approach accompanied by a spatial analysis at the district level, this study reveals the fact that in 2019 as many as 25 out of 30 urban villages (about 83%) in Bandung City already have a deficit in urban carrying capacity status which indicates that space requirements have exceeded the land suitable for urban areas. The estimates of urban space requirements based on population projections in 2031 produce information that only 2 out of 30 districts have surplus land carrying capacity status. The findings in this study indicate that the Bandung City government needs to immediately reorganize the spatial planning regulation in order to balance the development of the built area with the suitability of urban space.

Linking hydrological, hydraulic and water quality models for river water environmental capacity assessment

The water environment of a river network can self-clean to a certain extent; however, when the wastewater discharge load exceeds a certain threshold, the balance of nature is disrupted, leading to water pollution. This emphasises the urgent need to evaluate river water environmental capacity (RWEC) as a necessary parameter for sustainable development. However, to quantify the RWEC, it is important to estimate the hydrological and hydrodynamic factors in the basin, leading to the linking of these models. The present investigation aims to propose an integrated framework, named RWEC, consisting of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, a database system, and GIS to evaluate the water environmental carrying capacity of the selected river network. The rain – runoff (RR), hydrodynamic (HD), ecological (ECO), and RWEC models were used. Groups of data, including meteorology, hydrology, and the environment, combined with topographic data and waste sources, were applied. Groups of models and data were integrated into a seven-step framework to calculate the RWEC. The case study is a basin in Binh Duong Province, Vietnam and four pollutants were selected: NH4+, BOD5, NO3−, PO43−. The flow and water quality factors in the river basin in the study area were measured based on hydraulic models, and the water quality was calibrated. The role of hydrological, hydraulic, and water quality models in the RWEC calculation was clarified. According to the baseline and forecast scenarios, the calculation of the RWEC for the scenarios was performed. In the baseline scenario, RWECNH4+ is in the range (−283, −22) kg/day, RWECBOD5 ranges from (143, 3126) kg/day, RWECNO3- is in the range (−778, 2166) kg/day, and RWECPO43- is in the range (−31, 46) kg/day. The dependence of RWEC on environmental factors, self-cleaning factors, and the difference between the baseline and forecast scenarios were clarified.

The Effects of Tourism Industry Agglomeration on Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model

By utilizing the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China from 2000 to 2018, this study constructs a panel threshold model to examine the nonlinear relationship between Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity (TECC) and Tourism Industry Agglomeration (TIA). TECC is evaluated based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, and TIA is estimated by the location quotient index. The analysis reveals that TIA and TECC both show growth trends and significant regional differences among the 26 cities, but the latter fluctuates at certain stages. Moreover, TIA has a significant double threshold effect on TECC, which shows that the positive impact of TIA is enhanced initially but then weakens afterwards. Theoretically, this study contributes to enriching the current literature on TECC from the perspective of TIA. Practically, it could help local governments effectively arrange agglomerations to promote the sustainable development of the tourism industry in China.

Complex Dynamics of a Predator–Prey Interaction with Fear Effect in Deterministic and Fluctuating Environments

Many ecological models have received much attention in the past few years. In particular, predator–prey interactions have been examined from many angles to capture and explain various environmental phenomena meaningfully. Although the consumption of prey directly by the predator is a well-known ecological phenomenon, theoretical biologists suggest that the impact of anti-predator behavior due to the fear of predators (felt by prey) can be even more crucial in shaping prey demography. In this article, we develop a predator–prey model that considers the effects of fear on prey reproduction and on environmental carrying capacity of prey species. We also include two delays: prey species birth delay influenced by fear of the predator and predator gestation delay. The global stability of each equilibrium point and its basic dynamical features have been investigated. Furthermore, the “paradox of enrichment” is shown to exist in our system. By analysing our system of nonlinear delay differential equations, we gain some insights into how fear and delays affect on population dynamics. To demonstrate our findings, we also perform some numerical computations and simulations. Finally, to evaluate the influence of a fluctuating environment, we compare our proposed system to a stochastic model with Gaussian white noise terms.

Can Green Innovation Improve Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity? An Empirical Analysis from China.

Green innovation has become an important driving force for China’s economic transformation and development. This paper selects the 2010–2020 provincial-level regions in China as samples, and adopts a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method to comprehensively, objectively and scientifically evaluate the environmental carrying capacity of air pollution in two dimensions: natural resource endowment and human activity impact, and also measures and calculates the green innovation in each province, city and autonomous region to explore the specific impact of green innovation on environmental carrying capacity and its spatial spillover effect; it also explores the heterogeneous effects of green innovation on environmental carrying capacity under different pollution environments. The conclusions show that: (1) Green innovation has a positive impact on environmental carrying capacity. (2) There is a spatial spillover effect of green innovation on environmental carrying capacity. In other words, in areas with higher PM2.5 concentration, that is, lower environmental quality, green innovation has a weaker ability to improve environmental carrying capacity; in areas with lower PM2.5 concentration, that is higher environmental quality, green innovation has a stronger ability to improve environmental carrying capacity. (3) In the process of green innovation affecting environmental carrying capacity, PM2.5 plays the part of a mediating effect, indicating that green innovation is an intermediate transmission mechanism affecting environmental carrying capacity, and the results show that the absolute value of the short-term indirect effect is greater than the absolute value of the short-term direct effect, and the long-term direct effect is greater than the long-term indirect effect.

The spatial stress of urban land expansion on the water environment of the Yangtze River Delta in China

In highly urbanized and industrialized areas, the demand for construction land is expanding, which should have an impact on the water environment. Taking the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and considering chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) as characteristic pollutants, this study investigated the spatial–temporal characteristics of water pollutant emissions at the county level, optimized the spatial lag model (SLM) to estimate the spatial interaction of urban expansion and water pollutant emissions through direct and indirect effects. The results show that from 2011 to 2015, water pollutant emissions in the YRD decreased significantly and that the high-emissions pattern changed from a contiguous to a scattered distribution. The emissions of COD and NH3-N in counties at various distances from the Yangtze River and coastline show a logarithmic curve relationship. The association between urban expansion and water pollutant emissions was significant and stable. In 2015, every 1% increase in the scale of urban expansion resulted in 0.299% and 0.340% increases in local COD and NH3-N emissions, respectively, and emissions in the adjacent counties synchronously increased by 0.068% and 0.084%, respectively. The results show that to break the association and spatial interaction between urban expansion and water pollutant emissions and alleviate the environmental stress on the YRD, in addition to delimiting an urban expansion boundary and strictly restraining the scale of expansion, improvement in the regional environmental carrying capacity through urban water pollutant treatment facilities and pipe network construction is urgently needed.

VALUASI EKONOMI DEGRADASI DALAM MEWUJUDKAN KOTA HIJAU DI JAKARTA

Sustainable urban development requires various efforts to balance the carrying capacity of the city's environment. Another environmental problem that also appears in urban areas, is traffic congestion which is at risk of increasing carbon monoxide emissions. Air pollution has both acute and chronic effects on human health, affecting a number of different organ systems. Ranging from mild such as upper respiratory irritation (ARI) for chronic respiratory and heart disease, to lung cancer, including acute respiratory infections in children and chronic bronchitis in adults, to pre-existing heart and lung diseases will aggravating the disease, or an asthma attack. This study analyzes the valuation of the degradation of air pollution in order to create a green city in Jakarta. The results of the Degradation Economic Valuation of the City of Jakarta are calculated from the number of pneumonia & tuberculosis patients multiplied by the cost of treatment per capita, the result is for the total DKI Jakarta in 2011 of Rp. 6,497,- (in million) while 2014 increased by Rp. 1,148,976,- (in million) while for 2020 it decreased by Rp. 98,535,- (in million). For 2020. This valuation represents the loss resulting from air pollution so that people have to pay for medical treatment due to illness suffered from pollutants

Simulation and coordinated development of an economic, energy, and environmental carrying capacity system from the perspective of scientific and technological progress: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

Simulation and coordinated development of an economic, energy, and environmental carrying capacity system from the perspective of scientific and technological progress: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

Africa’s Continental Free Trade and Sustainable Development: An Economic Assessment

The quest for Africa’s development breakthrough appears to be closely related to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The Economic Commission of Africa believes the move could solve chronic poverty and joblessness prevailing on the continent. However, the benefit of hindsight reveals limits set by the laws of thermodynamics on the extent to which economic activities can be most beneficial to humanity. The motivation to expand trade thrives on energy for extraction, production and consumption, yielding undesirable waste products. The need for sustainable development has responded to the limits imposed by excessive waste, stretching environmental carrying capacity to the breaking point. Thus, to avoid repeating past development errors, Africa’s Continental Free Trade Area needs to ascertain the extent and cost of resultant environmental damage. Clearly, AfCFTA is yet to consider such effects. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, should be a reminder of how devastating a collision between economic activity and the natural environment can be. Existing studies on AfCFTA have so far been restricted to quantifying the effects of tariff reductions, non-tariff barriers and trade facilitation. This study, however, assesses the outcomes of the efforts being made to achieve the goals of AfCFTA, from an environmental economics analytical framework, in line with tenets of sustainable development. It employs data mainly from the World Bank and AfCFTA Secretariat to analyze the welfare effects of AfCFTA through resultant deforestation, solid waste management and climate change adaptation. The study found the resulting environmental damage to be US$ 744.71 billion, far exceeding the projected AfCFTA benefits of US$450 billion to be realized by 2035. Thus, in its current form, AfCFTA will reduce the economic welfare of Africa by at least US$294.71 billion by 2035. While in the formative stages, AfCFTA will be better served if stakeholders can pay attention to the call for a fully operational plan to offset the impending environmental damage, which cannot be taken for granted if Africa wants sustainable development.