Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Research Articles

Integration of surface-based and space-based atmospheric CO2 measurements for improving carbon flux estimates using a new developed 3-GAS inversion model

The ongoing necessity and developmental trajectory in atmospheric CO2 assimilation system revolves around enhancing the optimization efficacy of assimilation inversions through the synergistic integration of distinct observational datasets. In this study, we developed an new inversion system-Global Greenhouse-Gases Assimilation System (3-GAS), by coupling the global atmospheric transport model GEOS-Chem with the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter (4D-LETKF) algorithm. We compiled an integrated dataset utilizing the widely recognized carbon observation data from ObsPack (Observation Package), GOSAT (The Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite), and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) to estimate global surface fluxes. The integration of multiple observational data significantly amplifies spatial coverage, enhances the variability in flux inversion, and fosters improvements in localized assimilation efficacy. The spatial distribution of the carbon flux of the combined assimilation emerges as a comprehensive outcome, born from the assimilation with individual observational data. This distribution is primarily influenced by the coverage attributes of the original observations and the meticulous selection of observations during the assimilation process. The validation with surface and aircraft observations reveals that the results of combined assimilation possess composite advantages, which are manifested in alleviating certain intrinsic errors inherent to individual assimilation. The combined assimilation improves the accuracy based on root-mean-square error reduced by 10%, 16% and 21% in comparison to surface-only, OCO-2-only and GOSAT-only assimilation. Eventually, predicated upon preliminary inversion results and regional characteristics, we endeavor to propose a more refined filtration scheme and error determination method for the integrated dataset, as the initiative for the efficient assimilation of multi-source data.

Impact of atmospheric forcing on SST biases in the LETKF-based ocean research analysis (LORA)

In the previous study, the authors have produced an eddy-resolving ocean ensemble analysis product called the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF)-based ocean research analysis (LORA) over the western North Pacific and Maritime Continent regions using an ocean data assimilation system driven by the Japanese operational atmospheric reanalysis dataset known as the JRA-55. However, the LORA includes warm biases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in coastal regions during the boreal winter. In this study, we perform sensitivity experiments with atmospheric forcing using an ocean forcing dataset known as the JRA55-do, which adjusts the JRA-55 to high-quality reference datasets to reduce biases and uncertainties. The results show that the nearshore warm SST biases are significantly improved by the JRA55-do. During the boreal autumn, the improvement comes from mainly two factors: (i) enhancement of surface cooling by latent heat releases caused by removing contamination of weak winds at the land grid cells, and (ii) weakening surface heating by downward shortwave radiation through the adjustment in the JRA55-do.During the boreal winter, enhanced cooling by the analysis increments suppresses the growth of the warm SST biases when the JRA55-do is used. However, if the JRA-55 dataset is used, the adaptive observation error inflation (AOEI) scheme acts negatively to keep the nearshore SST biases in winter. Based on the innovation statistics, the AOEI inflates the observation errors when the differences between the squared observation-minus-forecast innovations and the squared forecast ensemble spreads are larger than the prescribed observation error variance, and improves the accuracy in the open ocean, especially around the frontal regions. However, when substantial warm SST biases are formed in the previous season, AOEI's observation error inflation makes the analysis increments smaller and cannot suppress the warm biases.We also validate the analysis accuracy using various data such as sea surface height and horizontal velocities and find that the JRA55-do has significant advantages. Therefore, continuous maintenance and development of ocean forcing datasets are essential for ocean modeling and data assimilation.

Improving Afternoon Thunderstorm Prediction over Complex Terrain with the Assimilation of Dense Ground-Based Observations: Four Cases in the Taipei Basin

Abstract In this study, we investigate the impact of assimilating densely distributed Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenith total delay (ZTD) and surface station (SFC) data on the prediction of very short-term heavy rainfall associated with afternoon thunderstorm (AT) events in the Taipei basin. Under weak synoptic-scale conditions, four cases characterized by different rainfall features are chosen for investigation. Experiments are conducted with a 3-h assimilation period, followed by 3-h forecasts. Also, various experiments are performed to explore the sensitivity of AT initialization. Data assimilation experiments are conducted with a convective-scale Weather Research and Forecasting–local ensemble transform Kalman filter (WRF-LETKF) system. The results show that ZTD assimilation can provide effective moisture corrections. Assimilating SFC wind and temperature data could additionally improve the near-surface convergence and cold bias, further increasing the impact of ZTD assimilation. Frequently assimilating SFC data every 10 min provides the best forecast performance especially for rainfall intensity predictions. Such a benefit could still be identified in the earlier forecast initialized 2 h before the start of the event. Detailed analysis of a case on 22 July 2019 reveals that frequent assimilation provides initial conditions that can lead to fast vertical expansion of the convection and trigger an intense AT. This study proposes a new metric using the fraction skill score to construct an informative diagram to evaluate the location and intensity of heavy rainfall forecast and display a clear characteristic of different cases. Issues of how assimilation strategies affect the impact of ground-based observations in a convective ensemble data assimilation system and AT development are also discussed. Significance Statement In this study, we investigate the impact of frequently assimilating densely distributed ground-based observations on predicting four afternoon thunderstorm events in the Taipei basin. While assimilating GNSS-ZTD data can improve the moisture fields for initializing convection, assimilating surface station data improves the prediction of rainfall location and intensity, particularly when surface data are assimilated at a very high frequency of 10 min.

Ensemble analysis and forecast of ecosystem indicators in the North Atlantic using ocean colour observations and prior statistics from a stochastic NEMO–PISCES simulator

Abstract. This study is anchored in the H2020 SEAMLESS project (https://www.seamlessproject.org, last access: 29 January 2024), which aims to develop ensemble assimilation methods to be implemented in Copernicus Marine Service monitoring and forecasting systems, in order to operationally estimate a set of targeted ecosystem indicators in various regions, including uncertainty estimates. In this paper, a simplified approach is introduced to perform a 4D (space–time) ensemble analysis describing the evolution of the ocean ecosystem. An example application is provided, which covers a limited time period in a limited subregion of the North Atlantic (between 31 and 21∘ W, between 44 and 50.5∘ N, between 15 March and 15 June 2019, at a 1/4∘ and a 1 d resolution). The ensemble analysis is based on prior ensemble statistics from a stochastic NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean)–PISCES simulator. Ocean colour observations are used as constraints to condition the 4D prior probability distribution. As compared to classic data assimilation, the simplification comes from the decoupling between the forward simulation using the complex modelling system and the update of the 4D ensemble to account for the observation constraint. The shortcomings and possible advantages of this approach for biogeochemical applications are discussed in the paper. The results show that it is possible to produce a multivariate ensemble analysis continuous in time and consistent with the observations. Furthermore, we study how the method can be used to extrapolate analyses calculated from past observations into the future. The resulting 4D ensemble statistical forecast is shown to contain valuable information about the evolution of the ecosystem for a few days after the last observation. However, as a result of the short decorrelation timescale in the prior ensemble, the spread of the ensemble forecast increases quickly with time. Throughout the paper, a special emphasis is given to discussing the statistical reliability of the solution. Two different methods have been applied to perform this 4D statistical analysis and forecast: the analysis step of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (with domain localization) and a Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampler (with covariance localization), both enhanced by the application of anamorphosis to the original variables. Despite being very different, the two algorithms produce very similar results, thus providing support to each other's estimates. As shown in the paper, the decoupling of the statistical analysis from the dynamical model allows us to restrict the analysis to a few selected variables and, at the same time, to produce estimates of additional ecological indicators (in our example: phenology, trophic efficiency, downward flux of particulate organic matter). This approach can easily be appended to existing operational systems to focus on dedicated users' requirements, at a small additional cost, as long as a reliable prior ensemble simulation is available. It can also serve as a baseline to compare with the dynamical ensemble forecast and as a possible substitute whenever useful.

Assessing the assimilation of Himawari-8 observations on aerosol forecasts and radiative effects during pollution transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. Emissions from South Asia (SA) represent a critical source of aerosols on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and aerosols can significantly reduce the surface solar energy. To enhance the precision of aerosol forecasting and its radiative effects in SA and the TP, we employed a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter (4D-LETKF) aerosol data assimilation (DA) system. This system was utilized to assimilate Himawari-8 aerosol optical thickness (AOT) into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to depict one SA air pollution outbreak event in spring 2018. Sensitivity tests for the assimilation system were conducted first to tune temporal localization lengths. Comparisons with independent Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations demonstrate that the AOT analysis and forecast fields have more reasonable diurnal variations by assimilating all the observations within a 12 h window, which are both better than assimilating the hourly observations in the current assimilation time slot. Assimilation of the entire window of observations with aerosol radiative effect activation significantly improves the prediction of downward solar radiation compared to the free-run experiment. The AOT assimilation with aerosol radiative effect activation led to a reduction in aerosol concentrations over SA, resulting in increased surface radiation, temperature, boundary layer height, and atmospheric instability. These changes facilitated air uplift, promoting aerosol transport from SA to the southeastern TP and leading to an increase in AOT in this region.

Including the Horizontal Observation Error Correlation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter: Idealized Experiments with NICAM-LETKF

Abstract Densely observed remote sensing data such as radars and satellites generally contain significant spatial error correlations. In data assimilation, the observation error covariance matrix is usually assumed to be diagonal, and the dense data are thinned or spatially averaged to compensate for neglecting the spatial observation error correlation. However, in theory, including the spatial observation error correlation in data assimilation can make better use of the dense data. This study performs perfect model observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) to assess the impact of assimilating horizontally dense and error-correlated observations. The condition number of the observation error covariance matrix, defined as the ratio of the largest to smallest eigenvalues, is important for the numerical stability of the LETKF computation. A large condition number makes it difficult to compute the ensemble transform matrix correctly. Reducing the condition number by reconditioning is found effective for stable computation. The results show that including the horizontal observation error correlation with reconditioning makes the analysis more accurate but requires 6 times more computations than the case with the diagonal observation error covariance matrix. Significance Statement It is important to effectively utilize observations in data assimilation for more accurate weather prediction. Spatially dense observations are known to have an error correlation that is ignored in the data assimilation. This study explores assimilating dense observations by explicitly including observation error correlations with an idealized experiment. The results shows that the analysis is improved by including the observation error correlations. Also, the condition number of the observation error covariance matrix is essential for stable computations.

Improving the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer by direct assimilation of ground‐based microwave radiometer observations

AbstractIn a joint effort, MeteoSwiss and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) address the need for improving the initial state of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) by exploiting ground‐based profiling observations that aim to fill the existing observational gap in the ABL. We implemented brightness‐temperature observations from ground‐based microwave radiometers (MWRs) in our data assimilation systems using a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with Radiative Transfer for TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder, ground‐based (RTTOV‐gb) as a forward operator. We were able to obtain a positive impact on the brightness temperature first guess and analysis, as well as a slight impact on the ABL humidity, using two MWRs at MeteoSwiss. These results led to a subsequent operational implementation of the observing system at MeteoSwiss. Furthermore, we performed an extensive set of assimilation experiments at DWD to investigate further various aspects such as the vertical localisation of selected single channels. We obtained a positive impact on the 6‐hr forecast of ABL temperature and humidity by assimilating two channels employing a dynamical localisation based on the sensitivity functions of RTTOV‐gb but also with a static localisation in a single‐channel setup. Our experiments indicate the importance of vertical localisation when using more than one channel, although reliable improvements are challenging to obtain without a larger number of observations for both assimilation and verification.

Construction of multiscale initial perturbations and the associated impacts on convection-permitting ensemble forecasting

To avoid selection of filtered scales in multiscale initial perturbations and to evaluate the roles of multiscale initial perturbations on the China Meteorological Administration-convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (CMA-CPEPS), we proposed a new scale-blending technique and then constructed a blended initial perturbation scheme (BLEND) based on the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and dynamical downscaling (DOWN) schemes. First, the results revealed that the BLEND scheme can increase the small-scale (large-scale) perturbations of the DOWN (ETKF) scheme, with the multiscale characteristics. Second, for dynamical variables, the BLEND scheme can improve the under-dispersion of the ETKF scheme at all forecast hours, and also improve the over-dispersion of the DOWN scheme at the initial lead time. Additionally, the probabilistic forecasting skill of the BLEND scheme is similar to that of the DOWN and ETKF schemes. Third, for precipitation, the BLEND scheme can increase the ensemble spread and reduce the forecast error of the ETKF scheme at all forecast hours, and at 15–21 and 30–36 h, respectively. And the BLEND scheme can reduce the forecast error of the DOWN scheme for most forecast hours and neighborhood radii. Furthermore, the BLEND scheme can completely improve the Brier scores of the ETKF scheme, and improve those of the DOWN scheme for large neighborhood radii and the final 6–12 h. Therefore, it is desirable to construct multiscale initial perturbations in CPEPSs.

Continuous data assimilation of large eddy simulation by lattice Boltzmann method and local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LBM-LETKF)

We investigate the applicability of the data assimilation (DA) to large eddy simulations based on the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). We carry out the observing system simulation experiment of a two-dimensional (2D) forced isotropic turbulence, and examine the DA accuracy of the nudging and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with spatially sparse and noisy observation data of flow fields. The advantage of the LETKF is that it does not require computing spatial interpolation and/or an inverse problem between the macroscopic variables (the density and the pressure) and the velocity distribution function of the LBM, while the nudging introduces additional models for them. The numerical experiments with grids and 10% observation noise in the velocity showed that the root mean square error of the velocity in the LETKF with observation points ( of the total grids) and 64 ensemble members becomes smaller than the observation noise, while the nudging requires an order of magnitude larger number of observation points to achieve the same accuracy. Another advantage of the LETKF is that it well keeps the amplitude of the energy spectrum, while only the phase error becomes larger with more sparse observation. We also see that a lack of observation data in the LETKF produces a spurious energy injection in high wavenumber regimes, leading to numerical instability. Such numerical instability is known as the catastrophic filter divergence problem, which can be suppressed by increasing the number of ensemble members. From these results, it was shown that the LETKF enables robust and accurate DA for the 2D LBM with sparse and noisy observation data.

Impacts of Multiscale Components of Initial Perturbations on Error Growth Characteristics and Ensemble Forecasting Skill

Abstract To compare the roles of two kinds of initial perturbations in a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (CPEPS) and reveal the effects of the differences in large-scale/small-scale perturbation components on the CPEPS, three initial perturbation schemes are introduced, including a dynamical downscaling (DOWN) scheme originating from a coarse-resolution model, a multiscale ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) scheme, and a filtered ETKF (ETKF_LARGE) scheme. First, the comparisons between the DOWN and ETKF schemes reveal that they behave differently in many ways. Specifically, the ensemble spread and forecast error for precipitation in the DOWN scheme are larger than those in the ETKF; the probabilistic forecasting skill for precipitation in the DOWN scheme is better than that in the ETKF at small neighborhood radii, whereas the advantages of the ETKF begin to appear as the neighborhood radius increases; DOWN possesses better spread–skill relationships than ETKF and has comparable probabilistic forecasting skills for nonprecipitation. Second, the comparisons between DOWN and ETKF_LARGE indicate that the differences in the large-scale initial perturbation components are key to the differences between DOWN and ETKF. Third, the comparisons between ETKF and ETKF_LARGE demonstrate that the small-scale initial perturbations are important since they can increase the precipitation spread in the early times and decrease the forecast errors while simultaneously improving the probabilistic forecasting skill for precipitation. Given the advantages of the DOWN and ETKF schemes and the importance of both large-scale and small-scale initial perturbations, multiscale initial perturbations should be constructed in future research.

Comparative study of strongly and weakly coupled data assimilation with a global land–atmosphere coupled model

Abstract. This study explores coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation (DA) for improving weather and hydrological forecasts by assimilating soil moisture (SM) data. This study integrates a land DA component into a global atmospheric DA system of the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (NICAM-LETKF) and performs both strongly and weakly coupled land–atmosphere DA experiments. We explore various types of coupled DA experiments by assimilating atmospheric observations and SM data simultaneously. The results show that analyzing atmospheric variables by assimilating SM data improves the SM analysis and forecasts and mitigates a warm bias in the lower troposphere where a dry SM bias exists. On the other hand, updating SM by assimilating atmospheric observations has detrimental impacts due to spurious error correlations between the atmospheric observations and land model variables. We also find that assimilating SM by strongly coupled DA is beneficial in the Sahel and equatorial Africa from May to October. These regions are characterized by seasonal variations in the precipitation patterns and benefit from updates in the atmospheric variables through SM DA during periods of increased precipitation. Additionally, these regions coincide with those identified in the previous studies, where a global initialization of SM would enhance the prediction skill of seasonal precipitation.

Assessment of Inflation Schemes on Parameter Estimation and Their Application in ENSO Prediction in an OSSE Framework

The ensemble Kalman filter is often used in parameter estimation, which plays an essential role in reducing model errors. However, filter divergence is often encountered in an estimation process, resulting in the convergence of parameters to the improper value and finally in parameter estimation failure. To alleviate this degeneration, various covariance inflation schemes have been proposed. In this study, I examined six currently used inflation schemes: fixed inflation, conditional covariance inflation, modified estimated parameter ensemble spread, relaxation-to-prior perturbations, relaxation-to-prior spread, and new conditional covariance inflation. The six schemes were thoroughly explored using the Zebiak–Cane model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter in the observing system simulation experiment framework. Emphasis was placed on the comparison of these schemes when it came to estimating single and multiple parameters in terms of oceanic analyses and resultant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The results showed that the new conditional covariance inflation scheme had the best results in terms of the estimated parameters, resultant state analyses, and ENSO predictions. In addition, the results suggested that better parameter estimation yields better state simulations, resulting in improved predictions. Overall, this study provides viable information for selecting inflation schemes for parameter estimation, offering theoretical guidance for constructing operational assimilation systems.

Impact of Gaussian Transformation on Cloud Cover Data Assimilation for Historical Weather Reconstruction

Abstract Old descriptive diaries are important sources of daily weather conditions before modern instrumental measurements were available. A previous study demonstrated the potential of reconstructing historical weather at a high temporal resolution by assimilating cloud cover converted from descriptive diaries. However, cloud cover often exhibits a non-Gaussian distribution, which violates the basic assumptions of most data assimilation schemes. In this study, we applied a Gaussian transformation (GT) approach to cloud cover data assimilation and conducted observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using 20 observation points over Japan. We performed experiments to assimilate cloud cover with large observational errors using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) and a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Without GT, meridional wind and temperature exhibited deteriorations in the lower troposphere compared with the experiment with no observations. In contrast, GT reduced the 2-month root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) by 5%–15% throughout the troposphere for wind, temperature, and specific humidity fields. Significant improvements include zonal wind at 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa with 6.4% and 7.3% improvements by GT, respectively, compared with the experiment without GT. We further demonstrate that the additional GT application to the precipitation background field improves precipitation estimation by 12.2%, with pronounced improvements over regions with monthly precipitation of less than 150 mm. We also explored the impact of cloud cover GT on a global scale and confirmed improvements extending from around the observation sites. Our results demonstrate the potential of GT in high-resolution historical weather reconstruction using old descriptive diaries. Significance Statement To reconstruct the historical weather, cloud cover information from old diaries can be used by incorporating high-resolution model simulations. However, cloud cover is not normally distributed and violates an important assumption when combining cloud cover observations with model simulations. Our results demonstrate that transforming the cloud cover distribution into a normal distribution could improve wind speed, temperature, and humidity fields in the model. We demonstrate the critical role of the transformation in a nonnormally distributed variable when combined with models and show the potential of diary-based weather information to reconstruct historical weather.

Assessing the Ensemble Assimilation System for Forecasting the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Sonca (2017) in the Vietnam East Sea using a Lagrangian Approach

: With the aim of evaluating the cyclogenesis predictability of Sonca (2017) using an ensemble prediction system from the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) to model WRF, the study proposed a dynamical assessment method with a Lagrangian approach that is stable and independent of time and reference systes. With this approach, the study can clearly distinguish between cases of tropical cyclone (TC) formation and non-formation in the ensemble forecast members. By evaluating the thermodynamic conditions of the low-level circulation between the forming and non-forming groups, the study found that the ocean-atmosphere interaction and the vortex merger process play imnportant roles in the formation of Sonca. The evaluation of the formation location showed that the detected vortex centers from the forming members tended to concentrate near the monsoon trough axis, indicating that this is a highly favorable region for vortex formation in the Vietnam East Sea.
 
 

Reconstructing cardiac electrical excitations from optical mapping recordings.

The reconstruction of electrical excitation patterns through the unobserved depth of the tissue is essential to realizing the potential of computational models in cardiac medicine. We have utilized experimental optical-mapping recordings of cardiac electrical excitation on the epicardial and endocardial surfaces of a canine ventricle as observations directing a local ensemble transform Kalman filter data assimilation scheme. We demonstrate that the inclusion of explicit information about the stimulation protocol can marginally improve the confidence of the ensemble reconstruction and the reliability of the assimilation over time. Likewise, we consider the efficacy of stochastic modeling additions to the assimilation scheme in the context of experimentally derived observation sets. Approximation error is addressed at both the observation and modeling stages through the uncertainty of observations and the specification of the model used in the assimilation ensemble. We find that perturbative modifications to the observations have marginal to deleterious effects on the accuracy and robustness of the state reconstruction. Furthermore, we find that incorporating additional information from the observations into the model itself (in the case of stimulus and stochastic currents) has a marginal improvement on the reconstruction accuracy over a fully autonomous model, while complicating the model itself and thus introducing potential for new types of model errors. That the inclusion of explicit modeling information has negligible to negative effects on the reconstruction implies the need for new avenues for optimization of data assimilation schemes applied to cardiac electrical excitation.

CHEEREIO 1.0: a versatile and user-friendly ensemble-based chemical data assimilation and emissions inversion platform for the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model

Abstract. We present a versatile, powerful, and user-friendly chemical data assimilation toolkit for simultaneously optimizing emissions and concentrations of chemical species based on atmospheric observations from satellites or suborbital platforms. The CHemistry and Emissions REanalysis Interface with Observations (CHEEREIO) exploits the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter algorithm (LETKF) to determine the Bayesian optimal (posterior) emissions and/or concentrations of a set of species based on observations and prior information using an easy-to-modify configuration file with minimal changes to the GEOS-Chem or LETKF code base. The LETKF algorithm readily allows for nonlinear chemistry and produces flow-dependent posterior error covariances from the ensemble simulation spread. The object-oriented Python-based design of CHEEREIO allows users to easily add new observation operators such as for satellites. CHEEREIO takes advantage of the Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) modular structure of input data management in GEOS-Chem to update emissions from the assimilation process independently from the GEOS-Chem code. It can seamlessly support GEOS-Chem version updates and is adaptable to other chemical transport models with similar modular input data structure. A post-processing suite combines ensemble output into consolidated NetCDF files and supports a wide variety of diagnostic data and visualizations. We demonstrate CHEEREIO's capabilities with an out-of-the-box application, assimilating global methane emissions and concentrations at weekly temporal resolution and 2∘ × 2.5∘ spatial resolution for 2019 using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations. CHEEREIO achieves a 50-fold improvement in computational performance compared to the equivalent analytical inversion of TROPOMI observations.

Dynamic Data-Driven Application System for Flow Field Prediction with Autonomous Marine Vehicles

Efficiently predicting high-resolution and accurate flow fields through networked autonomous marine vehicles (AMVs) is crucial for diverse applications. Nonetheless, a research gap exists in the seamless integration of data-driven flow modeling, real-time data assimilation from flow sensing, and the optimization of AMVs’ sensing strategies, culminating in a closed-loop dynamic data-driven application system (DDDAS). This article presents a novel DDDAS that systematically integrates flow modeling, data assimilation, and adaptive flow sensing using networked AMVs. It features a hybrid data-driven flow model, uniting a neural network for trend prediction and a Gaussian process model for residual fitting. The neural network architecture is designed using knowledge extracted from historic flow data through tidal harmonic analysis, enhancing its capability in flow prediction. The Kriged ensemble transform Kalman filter is introduced to assimilate spatially correlated flow-sensing data from AMVs, enabling effective model learning and accurate spatiotemporal flow prediction, while forming the basis for optimizing AMVs’ flow-sensing paths. A receding horizon strategy is proposed to implement non-myopic optimal path planning, and a distributed strategy of implementing Monte Carlo tree search is proposed to solve the resulting large-scale tree searching-based optimization problem. Computer simulations, employing underwater gliders as sensing networks, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DDDAS in predicting depth-averaged flow in nearshore ocean environments.

Pedestrian Positioning Using an Enhanced Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter.

Due to the unavailability of GPS indoors, various indoor pedestrian positioning approaches have been designed to estimate the position of the user leveraging sensory data measured from inertial measurement units (IMUs) and wireless signal receivers, such as pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) and received signal strength (RSS) fingerprinting. This study is similar to the previous study in that it estimates the user position by fusing noisy positional information obtained from the PDR and RSS fingerprinting using the Bayes filter in the indoor pedestrian positioning system. However, this study differs from the previous study in that it uses an enhanced state estimation approach based on the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), called QETKF, as the Bayes filer for the indoor pedestrian positioning instead of the SKPF proposed in the previous study. The QETKF estimates the updated user position by fusing the predicted position by the PDR and the positional measurement estimated by the RSS fingerprinting scheme using the ensemble transformation, whereas the SKPF calculates the updated user position by fusing them using both the unscented transformation (UT) of UKF and the weighting method of PF. In the field of Earth science, the ETKF has been widely used to estimate the state of the atmospheric and ocean models. However, the ETKF algorithm does not consider the model error in the state prediction model; that is, it assumes a perfect model without any model errors. Hence, the error covariance estimated by the ETKF can be systematically underestimated, thereby yielding inaccurate state estimation results due to underweighted observations. The QETKF proposed in this paper is an efficient approach to implementing the ETKF applied to the indoor pedestrian localization system that should consider the model error. Unlike the ETKF, the QETKF can avoid the systematic underestimation of the error covariance by considering the model error in the state prediction model. The main goal of this study is to investigate the feasibility of the pedestrian position estimation for the QETKF in the indoor localization system that uses the PDR and RSS fingerprinting. Pedestrian positioning experiments performed using the indoor localization system implemented on the smartphone in a campus building show that the QETKF can offer more accurate positioning results than the ETKF and other ensemble-based Kalman filters (EBKFs). This indicates that the QETKF has great potential in performing better position estimation with more accurately estimated error covariances for the indoor pedestrian localization system.

Improvements of Lagrangian Data Assimilation Tested in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract This study extends initial work by Sun and Penny and Sun et al. to explore the inclusion of path information from surface drifters using an augmented-state Lagrangian data assimilation based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF-LaDA) with vertical localization to improve analysis of the ocean. The region of interest is the Gulf of Mexico during the passage of Hurricane Isaac in the summer of 2012. Results from experiments with a regional ocean model at eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving model resolutions are used to quantify improvements to the analysis of sea surface velocity, sea surface temperature, and sea surface height in a data assimilation system. The data assimilation system assimilates surface drifter positions, as well as vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. Data were used from drifters deployed as a part of the Grand Lagrangian Deployment beginning 20 July 2012. Comparison of experiment results shows that at both eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving horizontal resolutions Lagrangian assimilation of drifter positions significantly improves analysis of the ocean state responding to hurricane conditions. These results, which should be applicable to other tropical oceans such as the Bay of Bengal, open new avenues for estimating ocean initial conditions to improve tropical cyclone forecasting.

Assimilating GNSS TEC with an LETKF over Yunnan, China

A robust ionospheric model is indispensable for providing the atmospheric delay corrections for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) navigation and positioning and forecasting the space environment. The accuracy of ionospheric models is limited due to the simplified model structures. Complicated spatiotemporal variations in total electron content (TEC) biases between GNSS and international reference ionosphere (IRI) suggest a robust strategy to optimally combine GNSS and IRI TEC for high-precision modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel ionospheric data assimilation method, which is a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), to construct an ionospheric model over Yunnan in southwestern China. We used the LETKF method to assimilate the ionospheric TEC extracted from GNSS observations in Yunnan into the IRI-2016 model. The experimental results indicate that the ionospheric data assimilation has a more pronounced improvement effect on the IRI empirical model during periods of geomagnetic quiet than during periods of geomagnetic disturbance. On quiet magnetic days, the skill score (SKS) of the assimilation is 0.60 and the root mean square error (RMSE) values before and after assimilation are 5.08 TECU and 2.02 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficient after assimilation increases from 0.94 to 0.99. On magnetic storm days, the SKS of the assimilation is 0.42 and the RMSE values before and after assimilation are 5.99 TECU and 3.46 TECU, respectively. The correlation coefficient after assimilation increases from 0.98 to 0.99. The results suggest that the LETKF algorithm can be considered an effective method for ionospheric data assimilation.