Ensemble Of Initial Conditions Research Articles

On the timescales in the chaotic dynamics of a 4D symplectic map.

In this work, we investigate different timescales of chaotic dynamics in a multi-parametric 4D symplectic map. We compute the Lyapunov time and a macroscopic timescale, the instability time, for a wide range of values of the system's parameters and many different ensembles of initial conditions in resonant domains. The instability time is obtained by plain numerical simulations and by its estimates from the diffusion time, which we derive in three different ways: through a normal and an anomalous diffusion law and by the Shannon entropy, whose formulation is briefly revisited. A discussion about which of the four approaches provide reliable values of the timescale for a macroscopic instability is addressed. The relationship between the Lyapunov time and the instability time is revisited and studied for this particular system where in some cases, an exponential or polynomial law has been observed. The main conclusion of the present research is that only when the dynamical system behaves as a nearly ergodic one such relationship arises and the Lyapunov and instability times are global timescales, independent of the position in phase space. When stability regions prevent the free diffusion, no correlations between both timescales are observed, they are local and depend on both the position in phase space and the perturbation strength. In any case, the instability time largely exceeds the Lyapunov time. Thus, when the system is far from nearly ergodic, the timescale for predictable dynamics is given by the instability time, being the Lyapunov time its lower bound.

Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations

Abstract As well as having an impact on the background state of the climate, global warming due to human activities could affect its natural oscillations and internal variability. In this study, we use four initial-condition ensembles from the CMIP6 framework to investigate the potential evolution of internal climate variability under different warming pathways for the twenty-first century. Our results suggest significant changes in natural climate variability and point to two distinct regimes driving these changes. The first is a decrease in internal variability of surface air temperature at high latitudes and all frequencies, associated with a poleward shift and the gradual disappearance of sea ice edges, which we show to be an important component of internal variability. The second is an intensification of the interannual variability of surface air temperature and precipitation at low latitudes, which appears to be associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This second regime is particularly alarming because it may contribute to making the climate more unstable and less predictable, with a significant impact on human societies and ecosystems.

Influence of Weather and Climate on Multidecadal Trends in Atlantic Hurricane Genesis and Tracks

Abstract This study investigates the relative roles of sea surface temperature–forced climate changes and weather variability in driving the observed eastward shift of Atlantic hurricane tracks over the period from 1970 to 2021. A 10-member initial condition ensemble with a ∼25-km horizontal resolution tropical cyclone permitting atmospheric model (GFDL AM2.5-C360) with identical sea surface temperature and radiative forcing time series was analyzed in conjunction with historical hurricane track observations. While a frequency increase was recovered by all the simulations, the observed multidecadal eastward shift in tracks was not robust across the ensemble members, indicating that it included a substantial contribution from weather-scale variability. A statistical model was developed to simulate expected storm tracks based on genesis location and steering flow, and it was used to conduct experiments testing the roles of changing genesis location and changing steering flow in producing the multidecadal weather-driven shifts in storm tracks. These experiments indicated that shifts in genesis location were a substantially larger driver of these multidecadal track changes than changes in steering flow. The substantial impact of weather on tracks indicates that there may be limited predictability for multidecadal track changes like those observed, although basinwide frequency has greater potential for prediction. Additionally, understanding changes in genesis location appears essential to understanding changes in track location. Significance Statement From the 1970s to the present, there has been an increase in the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes, but they have also shifted in location to the east, away from land. We explore whether this shift in hurricanes’ locations was caused by climatic factors or randomness to understand if and how these trends will persist. We also consider whether the shift was due to a change in where hurricanes started or how they moved over their lifespan. Analyzing data from observed and simulated hurricanes, we find that the shift was made more likely by climate factors, but ultimately occurred due to random variability in the hurricanes’ starting locations. These results suggest a higher uncertainty in the future location and impact of hurricanes and highlight the importance of studying why hurricanes originate where they do.

Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations

Very large (~2000 members) initial-condition ensemble simulations have been performed to advance understanding of mean climate and extreme weather responses to projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels. These simulations better sample internal atmospheric variability and extremes for each model compared to those from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). The mean climate response is mostly consistent with that from the PAMIP multi-model ensemble, including tropospheric warming, reduced midlatitude westerlies and storm track activity, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet and increased mid-to-high latitude blocking. Two resolutions of the same model exhibit significant differences in the stratospheric circulation response; however, these differences only weakly modulate the tropospheric response. The response of temperature and precipitation extremes largely follows the seasonal-mean response. Sub-sampling confirms that large ensembles (e.g. ≥400) are needed to robustly estimate the seasonal-mean large-scale circulation response, and very large ensembles (e.g. ≥1000) for regional climate and extremes.

Automatically discovering ordinary differential equations from data with sparse regression

Discovering nonlinear differential equations that describe system dynamics from empirical data is a fundamental challenge in contemporary science. While current methods can identify such equations, they often require extensive manual hyperparameter tuning, limiting their applicability. Here, we propose a methodology to identify dynamical laws by integrating denoising techniques to smooth the signal, sparse regression to identify the relevant parameters, and bootstrap confidence intervals to quantify the uncertainty of the estimates. We evaluate our method on well-known ordinary differential equations with an ensemble of random initial conditions, time series of increasing length, and varying signal-to-noise ratios. Our algorithm consistently identifies three-dimensional systems, given moderately-sized time series and high levels of signal quality relative to background noise. By accurately discovering dynamical systems automatically, our methodology has the potential to impact the understanding of complex systems, especially in fields where data are abundant, but developing mathematical models demands considerable effort.

Chaotic Diffusion in a Triaxial Galactic Model: an Example of Global Stable Chaos

In this work we focus on the chaotic diffusion in the phase space of a triaxial potential resembling an elliptical galaxy. The transport process is studied in two different action-like starting spaces in order to cope with circulating and noncirculating orbits. Estimates of the diffusion rate obtained by means of the variance approach are discussed in detail and their limitations are exposed. After revisiting the Shannon-entropy-based method from a conceptual point of view in the framework of simple arguments taken from the information theory, we apply it to measure changes in the unperturbed actions or integrals of motion of the system for different sets of small ensembles of random initial conditions. For such sets of ensembles, estimates of the Lyapunov times are also provided. The results show that, within the chaotic component of the phase space, the Lyapunov times are shorter than any physical time scale as the Hubble time, but the diffusion times are much larger than the latter. Thus, we conclude that stable chaos dominates the dynamics of realistic galactic models.

Aerosol characteristics in CMIP6 models' global simulations and their evaluation with the satellite measurements

AbstractGlobal and regional trends of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 simulations for the study period 1971–2014 were compared against the satellite retrievals and the intermodel variations were analysed. The AOD from multimodel mean (MMM) of eight general circulation models (GCMs) has been evaluated against the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi‐angle Imaging Spectro Radiometer (MISR) AOD for the 2001–2014 period. Angstrom exponents (AE and its first derivative) that represent the size distribution of aerosols are estimated globally from the perturbed initial condition ensemble of MRI‐ESM2‐0 and MPI‐ESM‐1‐2‐HAM models to report the aerosol variations through their size distribution. We found that the global AOD obtained from the MMM8 showed an insignificant decreasing trend, while this trend is significantly positive over the northern tropical region. The MMM8 has overestimated the MODIS AOD over North Africa, India, China, and Australia while this overestimation is confined to North Africa and eastern China when compared against MISR AOD. The absolute percent bias of MMM8 is 28.1% and 24.1% over the globe when compared against MODIS and MISR AOD, respectively. The spatial pattern of AE showed the dominance of fine‐ and coarse‐mode particles during the boreal/austral winter and summer seasons, respectively, that replicate the seasonality of aerosols. The AE derived from MPI‐ESM‐1‐2‐HR demonstrated better agreement with AATSR SU's (Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer instrument series, with the algorithm developed by Swansea University) AE (550–870 nm). On the other hand, MRI‐ESM2‐0 consistently underestimated AE across different regions and wavelength ranges, suggesting an over representation of larger aerosol particles in the model's portrayal of aerosol size distribution compared to satellite observations.

Fluctuations in auxin levels depend upon synchronicity of cell divisions in a one-dimensional model of auxin transport.

Auxin is a well-studied plant hormone, the spatial distribution of which remains incompletely understood. Here, we investigate the effects of cell growth and divisions on the dynamics of auxin patterning, using a combination of mathematical modelling and experimental observations. In contrast to most prior work, models are not designed or tuned with the aim to produce a specific auxin pattern. Instead, we use well-established techniques from dynamical systems theory to uncover and classify ranges of auxin patterns as exhaustively as possible as parameters are varied. Previous work using these techniques has shown how a multitude of stable auxin patterns may coexist, each attainable from a specific ensemble of initial conditions. When a key parameter spans a range of values, these steady patterns form a geometric curve with successive folds, often nicknamed a snaking diagram. As we introduce growth and cell division into a one-dimensional model of auxin distribution, we observe new behaviour which can be explained in terms of this diagram. Cell growth changes the shape of the snaking diagram, and this corresponds in turn to deformations in the patterns of auxin distribution. As divisions occur this can lead to abrupt creation or annihilation of auxin peaks. We term this phenomenon 'snake-jumping'. Under rhythmic cell divisions, we show how this can lead to stable oscillations of auxin. We also show that this requires a high level of synchronisation between cell divisions. Using 18 hour time-lapse imaging of the auxin reporter DII:Venus in roots of Arabidopsis thaliana, we show auxin fluctuates greatly, both in terms of amplitude and periodicity, consistent with the snake-jumping events observed with non-synchronised cell divisions. Periodic signals downstream of the auxin signalling pathway have previously been recorded in plant roots. The present work shows that auxin alone is unlikely to play the role of a pacemaker in this context.

Stochastic Bifurcation of the North Atlantic Circulation under a Midrange Future Climate Scenario with the NASA-GISS ModelE

Abstract A 10-member ensemble simulation with the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2–4.5 extended scenario. At 26°N, the bifurcation leads to 8 strong AMOC and 2 much weaker AMOC states, while at 48°N, it leads to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 nearly AMOC-off states, the latter lasting approximately 800 years. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated tipping points in AMOC through hosing experiments, i.e., prescribing sufficient freshwater inputs in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability (noise-induced bifurcation) associated with sea ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea after a slowing of the greenhouse gas forcing. While the AMOC strength follows the near shutdown of the Labrador Sea deep convection initially, the Irminger Sea salinity and deep mixing determine the timing of the AMOC recovery or near collapse at 48°N, which varies widely across the ensemble members. Other feedbacks such as ice-albedo, ice-evaporation, E − P, and the overturning salt-advection feedback play a secondary role that may enhance or reduce the primary mechanism which is ice melt. We believe this is the first time that a coupled climate model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble and might imply that there is a chance for significant and prolonged AMOC slow down due to internal variability of the system. Significance Statement We believe this is the first time that divergent AMOC behavior has been reported for an ensemble of Earth system model simulations using identical climate forcing and no prescribed freshwater perturbations. This response is a manifestation of noise-induced bifurcation, enhanced by feedbacks, revealing the role stochastic (or intrinsic) variability may play in AMOC stability.

High‐Resolution CCAM Simulations Over New Zealand and the South Pacific for the Detection and Attribution of Weather Extremes

AbstractDetection and attribution experiments are designed for the causal diagnosis of features in the climate system, including trends in mean climate and extreme events. While several detection and attribution data sets now exist, the coarse resolution of the climate models used (∼100‐km) often hinders their application to topographically complex regions like Aotearoa New Zealand and small island nations. The coarse atmospheric resolution may also be detrimental for simulating certain features of the atmospheric circulation, including the jets, blocking and cyclones. To address this, here we introduce a new set of climate model runs consisting of high‐resolution atmospheric simulations from the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) non‐hydrostatic global model. The variable‐resolution grid employed by CCAM enables targeted high‐resolution simulations over New Zealand (12‐km) and intermediate resolution over the wider South Pacific region (12–35‐km). Simulations from the historical experiment (years 1982–2021), consisting of ten initial condition ensemble members, are presented and evaluated here. The evaluation focuses on the representation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation over the Southern Hemisphere including the jet streams, storm tracks, cyclones, blocking and teleconnections, as well as more localized temperature and precipitation variability and extremes specifically over New Zealand. While certain biases are highlighted and discussed for the large‐scale atmospheric circulation, CCAM is found to perform especially well for various precipitation and temperature‐based extreme indices at smaller scales across New Zealand, generally outperforming state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis and coarser resolution global atmospheric models. These results support further application of the CCAM ensemble for studying weather and climate extremes in attribution studies.

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally-resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal?

We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation for this study is to test a long-held assumption of the shared socio-economic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario framework: that the signal from LUC can be safely disregarded when pairing different SSPs to the compatible RCPs, where compatibility only considers global radiative forcing, predominantly determined by well-mixed greenhouse gasses emissions. We analyze extremes of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation, after fitting non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in a way that borrows strength along the length of the simulation (2015–2100) and across initial condition ensembles. We consider changes in the 20 year return levels (RL20s) of these metrics by 2100, and focus on eight locations where LUC is large within each scenario, and strongly differs between scenarios, averaging the RL20s over a neighborhood characterized by the same LUC to enhance the signal to noise. We find that precipitation extremes do not show significant differences attributable to LUC differences. For temperature extremes (cold and hot) results are mixed, with some location-index combination showing significant results for some of the ESMs but not all, and not many coherent changes appearing for indices across regions, or regions across indices. These ESMs are representative of what is typically adopted as the source of climate information for impact studies, when the SSP-RCP framework is put to use. Overall, our analysis suggests that the hypothesis to pair SSPs to RCPs in a flexible fashion is overall defensible. However, the appearance of some coherence in a few locations and for some indices invites further investigation.

The influence of variability on fire weather conditions in high latitude regions under present and future global warming

Recent years have seen unprecedented fire activity at high latitudes and knowledge of future wildfire risk is key for adaptation and risk management. Here we present a systematic characterization of the probability distributions (PDFs) of fire weather conditions, and how it arises from underlying meteorological drivers of change, in five boreal forest regions, for pre-industrial conditions and different global warming levels. Using initial condition ensembles from two global climate models to characterize regional variability, we quantify the PDFs of daily maximum surface air temperature (SATmax), precipitation, wind, and minimum relative humidity (RHmin), and their evolution with global temperature. The resulting aggregate change in fire risk is quantified using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). In all regions we find increases in both means and upper tails of the FWI distribution, and a widening suggesting increased variability. The main underlying drivers are the projected increase in mean daily SATmax and decline in RHmin, marked already at +1 and +2 °C global warming. The largest changes occur in Canada, where we estimate a doubling of days with moderate-or-higher FWI between +1 °C and +4 °C global warming, and the smallest in Alaska. While both models exhibit the same general features of change with warming, differences in magnitude of the shifts exist, particularly for RHmin, where the bias compared to reanalysis is also largest. Given its importance for the FWI, RHmin evolution is identified as an area in need of further research. While occurrence and severity of wildfires ultimately depend also on factors such as ignition and fuel, we show how improved knowledge of meteorological conditions conducive to high wildfire risk, already changing across the high latitudes, can be used as a first indication of near-term changes. Our results confirm that continued global warming can rapidly push boreal forest regions into increasingly unfamiliar fire weather regimes.

Value-Gradient Based Formulation of Optimal Control Problem and Machine Learning Algorithm

Optimal control problem is typically solved by first finding the value function through the Hamilton–Jacobi equation (HJE) and then taking the minimizer of the Hamiltonian to obtain the control. In this work, instead of focusing on the value function, we propose a new formulation for the gradient of the value function (value-gradient) as a decoupled system of partial differential equations in the context of a continuous-time deterministic discounted optimal control problem. We develop an efficient iterative scheme for this system of equations in parallel by utilizing the fact that they share the same characteristic curves as the HJE for the value function. For the theoretical part, we prove that this iterative scheme converges linearly in sense for some suitable exponent in a weight function. For the numerical method, we combine a characteristic line method with machine learning techniques. Specifically, we generate multiple characteristic curves at each policy iteration from an ensemble of initial states and compute both the value function and its gradient simultaneously on each curve as the labeled data. Then supervised machine learning is applied to minimize the weighted squared loss for both the value function and its gradients. Experimental results demonstrate that this new method not only significantly increases the accuracy but also improves the efficiency and robustness of the numerical estimates, particularly with less characteristics data or fewer training steps.

Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability and Its Translation from Climate Variables to Hydropower Production at Basin Scale in India

Abstract Quantifying uncertainties in estimating future hydropower production directly or indirectly affects India’s energy security, planning, and management. The chaotic and nonlinear nature of atmospheric processes results in considerable internal climate variability (ICV) for future projections of climate variables. Multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE) and multimodel ensembles (MME) are often used to analyze the role of ICV and model uncertainty in precipitation and temperature. However, there are limited studies focusing on quantifying the role of internal variability on impact variables, including hydropower production. In this study, we analyze the role of ICV and model uncertainty on three prominent hydropower plants in India using MICE of EC-Earth3 and MME from CMIP6. We estimate the streamflow projections for all ensemble members using the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. We estimate maximum hydropower production generated using monthly release and hydraulic head available at the reservoir. We also analyzed the role of bias correction in hydropower production. The results show that ICV plays a significant role in estimating streamflow and hydropower potential for monsoon and throughout the year, respectively. Model uncertainty contributes more to total uncertainty than ICV in estimating the streamflow and potential hydropower. However, ICV is increasing toward the far term (2075–2100). We also show that bias correction does not preserve ICV in estimating the streamflow. Although there is an increase in uncertainty for estimated streamflow, mean hydropower shows a decrease toward the far term for February–May, more prominent for MICE than MME. The results suggest a need to incorporate uncertainty due to internal variability for addressing power security in changing climate scenarios.

Initial Condition Convection-Allowing Ensembles with Large Membership for Probabilistic Prediction of Convective Hazards

Abstract Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble forecasts provide quantitative probabilistic guidance of convective hazards that forecasters would otherwise qualitatively assess. Various initial condition (IC) strategies can be used to generate CAM probabilistic forecasts, but it is still unclear how different configurations perform. Schwartz et al. verified five 10-member IC CAM ensembles over one month of 0000 UTC initializations with a focus on precipitation. Here, we initialize four 42-member IC CAM ensembles every 12 h over 6 weeks and verify forecasts of precipitation, column maximum reflectivity, and hourly maximum updraft helicity. The Texas Tech University real-time EnKF ensemble and three additional IC ensemble modeling systems are verified. Holding the model configuration constant, additional ICs are generated by downscaling time-lagged Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members, applying correlated random noise to Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, and recentering EnKF perturbations about GFS analyses. We found that ensemble ICs constructed with correlated random noise and EnKF perturbations about GFS analyses both produced higher-quality precipitation forecasts than downscaled GEFS and EnKF strategies. However, downscaled GEFS and EnKF perturbations about GFS analyses frequently initialized more skillful forecasts of reflectivity than ICs with random perturbations, suggesting that flow-dependent perturbations are important for forecasting deep convection. Even with a suboptimal EnKF configuration, our findings still echo those of Schwartz et al. We extend their work by exploring 1) verification of additional convective hazards and 2) empirical scaling of IC perturbations as a computationally inexpensive method for improving CAM ensemble forecasts.

Coupled Mutual Inhibition and Mutual Activation Motifs as Tools for Cell-Fate Control

Multistability is central to biological systems. It plays a crucial role in adaptation, evolvability, and differentiation. The presence of positive feedback loops can enable multistability. The simplest of such feedback loops are (a) a mutual inhibition (MI) loop, (b) a mutual activation (MA) loop, and (c) self-activation. While it is established that all three motifs can give rise to bistability, the characteristic differences in the bistability exhibited by each of these motifs is relatively less understood. Here, we use dynamical simulations across a large ensemble of parameter sets and initial conditions to study the bistability characteristics of these motifs. Furthermore, we investigate the utility of these motifs for achieving coordinated expression through cyclic and parallel coupling amongst them. Our analysis revealed that MI-based architectures offer discrete and robust control over gene expression, multistability, and coordinated expression among multiple genes, as compared to MA-based architectures. We then devised a combination of MI and MA architectures to improve coordination and multistability. Such designs help enhance our understanding of the control structures involved in robust cell-fate decisions and provide a way to achieve controlled decision-making in synthetic systems.

Understanding recent tropospheric ozone trends in the context of large internal variability: a new perspective from chemistry-climate model ensembles

Observational records of meteorological and chemical variables are imprinted by an unknown combination of anthropogenic activity, natural forcings, and internal variability. With a 15-member initial-condition ensemble generated from the CESM2-WACCM6 chemistry-climate model for 1950–2014, we extract signals of anthropogenic (‘forced’) change from the noise of internally arising climate variability on observed tropospheric ozone trends. Positive trends in free tropospheric ozone measured at long-term surface observatories, by commercial aircraft, and retrieved from satellite instruments generally fall within the ensemble range. CESM2-WACCM6 tropospheric ozone trends are also bracketed by those in a larger ensemble constructed from five additional chemistry-climate models. Comparison of the multi-model ensemble with observed tropospheric column ozone trends in the northern tropics implies an underestimate in regional precursor emission growth over recent decades. Positive tropospheric ozone trends clearly emerge from 1950 to 2014, exceeding 0.2 DU yr−1 at 20–40 N in all CESM2-WACCM6 ensemble members. Tropospheric ozone observations are often only available for recent decades, and we show that even a two-decade record length is insufficient to eliminate the role of internal variability, which can produce regional tropospheric ozone trends oppositely signed from ensemble mean (forced) changes. By identifying regions and seasons with strong anthropogenic change signals relative to internal variability, initial-condition ensembles can guide future observing systems seeking to detect anthropogenic change. For example, analysis of the CESM2-WACCM6 ensemble reveals year-round upper tropospheric ozone increases from 1995 to 2014, largest at 30 S–40 N during boreal summer. Lower tropospheric ozone increases most strongly in the winter hemisphere, and internal variability leads to trends of opposite sign (ensemble overlaps zero) north of 40 N during boreal summer. This decoupling of ozone trends in the upper and lower troposphere suggests a growing prominence for tropospheric ozone as a greenhouse gas despite regional efforts to abate warm season ground-level ozone.

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

Finite-time recurrence analysis of chaotic trajectories in Hamiltonian systems.

In this work, we show that a finite-time recurrence analysis of different chaotic trajectories in two-dimensional non-linear Hamiltonian systems provides useful prior knowledge of their dynamical behavior. By defining an ensemble of initial conditions, evolving them until a given maximum iteration time, and computing the recurrence rate of each orbit, it is possible to find particular trajectories that widely differ from the average behavior. We show that orbits with high recurrence rates are the ones that experience stickiness, being dynamically trapped in specific regions of the phase space. We analyze three different non-linear maps and present our numerical observations considering particular features in each of them. We propose the described approach as a method to visually illustrate and characterize regions in phase space with distinct dynamical behaviors.