Ensemble Distribution Research Articles

Anthropogenically protected but naturally disturbed: a specialist carnivore at its southern range periphery

AbstractUnderstanding how species distributions and associated habitat are impacted by natural and anthropogenic disturbance is central for the conservation of rare forest carnivores dependent on subalpine forests. Canada lynx at their range periphery occupy subalpine forests that are structured by large-scale fire and insect outbreaks that increase with climate change. In addition, the Southern Rocky Mountains of the western United States is a destination for winter recreationists worldwide with an associated high degree of urbanization and resort development. We modeled habitat for a reintroduced population of Canada lynx in the Southern Rocky Mountains using an ensemble species distribution model built on abiotic and biotic covariates and validated with independent lynx locations including satellite telemetry, aerial telemetry, camera traps, den locations, and winter backtracking. Based on this model, we delineated Likely and Core lynx-habitat as thresholds that captured 95% and 50% of testing data, respectively. Likely (5727 km2) and Core (441 km2) habitat were spatially limited and patchily distributed across western Colorado, USA. Natural (e.g., insect outbreaks, fire) and anthropogenic (e.g., urbanization, ski resort development, forest management) disturbance overlapped 37% of Likely lynx-habitat and 24 % of highest quality Core. Although overlap with fire disturbance was low (5%), future burns likely represent the greatest potential impact over decades-long timeframes. The overlap of publicly owned lands administratively classified as “protected” with Likely (62% overlap) and Core (49%) habitat may insulate lynx from permanent habitat conversion due to direct human disturbance (urbanization, ski resort development).

Ensemble species distribution models reveal Javan leopard’s preference for areas with high prey species diversity

Like many other large carnivores worldwide, the Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas) faces significant threats from prey depletion due to human disturbance and habitat loss, yet the distribution of its prey across Java and the relationship between prey diversity and leopard presence remain poorly understood at broad spatial scales. This study predicted the distribution of eight prey species for the Javan leopard across Java using an ensemble species distribution model and identified key factors influencing prey distribution. A prey diversity map was generated to evaluate the relationship between prey diversity and Javan leopard occurrence. The results showed that model accuracy for each prey species, as measured by the True Skill Statistic (TSS) and continuous Boyce index (BCI), ranged from 0.609 to 0.951 and 0.628 to 0.965, respectively, with distance to primary and secondary forests as the most influential predictor. The results also showed that areas with high prey diversity were primarily concentrated in western and eastern Java, and approximately 94.3% of leopard occurrence points were found in regions with five or more prey species. This is the first comprehensive spatial prediction of prey diversity for Javan leopards, emphasizing the predator’s preference for habitats with high prey diversity. These findings suggest that in landscapes harboring large carnivores as apex predators, areas with elevated prey diversity may serve as key indicators of potential core habitats for these carnivores.

Pasture and diurnal temperature are key predictors of regional Plains Spotted Skunk (Spilogale interrupta) distribution.

The Plains Spotted Skunk (Spilogale interrupta) is a small carnivore native to central North America that has experienced significant population reductions, and there is a lack of information about the species that could inform conservation. Our study aimed to address knowledge gaps about the distribution and habitat associations of the species in South Dakota using species distribution modeling. We used species location data collected from state natural resource managers, trappers, and members of online social media groups dedicated to hunting and wildlife conservation; environmental predictors; and 6 predictive modeling algorithms (i.e., artificial neural networks, artificial classification tree analysis, generalized boosting models, maximum entropy, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and random forests) to develop climate and landcover ensemble distribution models. The most important climate and landcover predictors were mean temperature diurnal range (i.e., average monthly differences between daily high and low temperatures) and proportion of area classified as pasture. Ensemble model concordance identified approximately 31,300 km2 of potential Plains Spotted Skunk habitat primarily in eastern South Dakota and between the watersheds of the Missouri and James rivers. Our results offer insights that can guide conservation and inform effective management strategies for conserving Plains Spotted Skunk populations in the northern Great Plains. The promotion of low-intensity agricultural practices such as maintaining pastures, farm buildings, fences rows, and the management of woodland encroachment may improve habitat suitability and facilitate the recovery of plains spotted skunks in the region.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Habitat Pattern of Trichiurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea Under Future Climate Scenarios

The impact of climate change on fish distribution has drawn increasing attention worldwide. Studying the distribution patterns and habitat evolution trends of largehead hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus), an important fishery resource in the northern South China Sea (NSCS), is of great significance for the management and sustainable utilization of fishery resources. This study uses an ensemble species distribution model to analyze the seasonal distribution patterns of T. japonicus in the NSCS and predict the changes in highly suitable habitats of T. japonicus under four future climate scenarios (IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the area of suitable habitats in the Beibu Gulf is expected to increase, while that in the offshore of Guangdong will significantly decrease. In different seasons, there are differences in environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. japonicus, among which sea bottom temperature (SBT) and bathymetry (BM) are key factors. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the area of highly suitable habitats for T. japonicus is expected to decrease by 30.54% by the 2100s, while under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, it is expected to decrease by 53.67%. Our research results show that the active range of T. japonicus in the NSCS has different adaptive responses to different climate change scenarios, which has an important impact on the development and management of T. japonicus resources.

Range contraction and expansion of the African buffalo under climate change scenarios

ABSTRACT Climate change is one of the leading causes of global biodiversity declines and extinctions. Yet knowledge of its impact on African buffalo distribution on the continent is lacking. In this study, we apply ensemble species distribution modelling to predict the distribution of two coarsely defined African buffalo functional groups under current and future climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconmic Pathway, SSP245 and SSP585 in 2100) and estimate habitat representation within protected areas. Model predictions indicate significant range contraction and expansion in the savanna and the forest buffalo functional groups, respectively. Also, the proportion of suitable habitats for both functional groups is represented poorly within protected areas, with the current coverage expected to decline further. Our findings reveal plausible implications of climate change on African buffalo conservation and zoonotic diseases. Overall, this climate-based approach could be applied to model the distribution of African buffalo subspecies at local geographical scales in countries with adequately sampled occurrence data to support conservation decision-making.

Maximum entropy in dynamic complex networks.

The field of complex networks studies a wide variety of interacting systems by representing them as networks. To understand their properties and mutual relations, the randomization of network connections is a commonly used tool. However, information-theoretic randomization methods with well-established foundations mostly provide a stationary description of these systems, while stochastic randomization methods that account for their dynamic nature lack such general foundations and require extensive repetition of the stochastic process to measure statistical properties. In this work, we extend the applicability of information-theoretic methods beyond stationary network models. By using the information-theoretic principle of maximum caliber we construct dynamic network ensemble distributions based on constraints representing statistical properties with known values throughout the evolution. We focus on the particular cases of dynamics constrained by the average number of connections of the whole network and each node, comparing each evolution to simulations of stochastic randomization that obey the same constraints. We find that ensemble distributions estimated from simulations match those calculated with maximum caliber and that the equilibrium distributions to which they converge agree with known results of maximum entropy given the same constraints. Finally, we discuss further the connections to other maximum entropy approaches to network dynamics and conclude by proposing some possible avenues of future research.

Toward electron temperature profiles in hot-dense plasmas from x-ray spectral ensembles

High repetition rate laser systems enable new strategies for diagnosing plasma behavior with large datasets. Here, we define an ensemble technique that relies on randomized targeting of x-ray tracer micro-stripes. On each shot, a high-intensity laser pulse is focused on a solid target with Ti tracer stripes embedded in an Al foil, randomly targeting a micro-stripe, a portion of a stripe, or a gap between stripes. High-resolution, time-integrated x-ray spectrometers capture line emission from the portion of the micro-stripe that is heated to sufficiently high electron temperatures. Accumulation of many such cases is used to construct ensemble distributions of x-ray line intensities that encompass all relative offsets of the laser focus to the micro-stripe centers. Synthetic intensity distributions are likewise generated using collisional-radiative modeling. Bayesian fitting of modeled to measured intensity distributions establishes the most likely radial temperature profiles, enabling comparison to hydrodynamic models and calling into question the cylindrical symmetry of these micro-stripe-embedded systems. Ensemble techniques have significant potential for high-energy-density plasma diagnostics, especially with the advent of high repetition rate experiments.

Risk zoning of Gynaephora alpherakii (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Gynaephora alpherakii (Grum-Grschimailo) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) is a major pest in alpine meadow areas in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and causes severe losses in the local livestock production industry. Assessing areas at high risk for G. alpherakii infestation is critical for the effective management of this pest. In this study, an ensemble distribution model was used to analyze areas suitable for G. alpherakii on the QTP. Risk zoning was performed based on the vegetation and environmental conditions in areas with high-occurrence points, and differences between high-occurrence points and other occurrence points were compared. The results revealed that the suitable areas for G. alpherakii on the QTP amounted to 28.27 × 104 hm2, accounting for 10.94% of the total area of the QTP; the area of high-risk was 19.07 × 104 hm2, and these areas were located mainly in the eastern part of the QTP. Qinghai Province had the highest risk, accounting for 77% of the total area identified as high-risk. In terms of habitat, G. alpherakii preferred alpine Kobresia meadows, which have abundant sunshine, loose soil, and scarce precipitation. This study supports efforts to manage G. alpherakii outbreaks and contributes to the ecological protection of the QTP.

Ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff for the past 70 years in two main watersheds of China

ABSTRACT Water resources in China, especially in the major basins of the Songhua and Yangtze rivers, are characterized by uneven distribution both temporally and spatially, leading to notable challenges in per capita water availability. In this study, we investigate the ensemble probability distribution of annual runoff over the past 70 years in two of China's major watersheds: the Songhua River and the Yangtze River. By dividing each basin into several regions from upstream to downstream, based on annual mean discharge as a proxy for annual runoff, we observed a significant correlation between the annual runoff of the control sections and those of the upstream and downstream regions in these large watersheds. Consequently, this study establishes the probability distribution of annual runoff for each region within the basins, anchored on the design annual runoff of the control sections, using the joint bivariate logarithmic normal distribution of two interrelated random variables. Furthermore, we developed a relationship between the conditional probability distribution and correlation diagram data, and a regression equation correlating regional annual runoff with the watershed control section's runoff. This investigation into the historical patterns of runoff over the past 70 years provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics in these critical watersheds.

Unveiling mid-century conservation priorities: Co-occurrence of biodiversity, climate change exposure, and carbon storage in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China

The global challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change necessitate the implementation of integrated conservation strategies. A forward-looking framework is necessary to reconcile climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts with biodiversity goals, supporting effective long-term planning and management of protected areas (PAs) network. This study develops a comprehensive approach to identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation until 2050, integrating assessments of species distributions, climate change exposure and carbon storage under distinct shared socioeconomic pathways. The Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB) in China serves as a case study. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM) method, we predicted the distributions of 435 threatened terrestrial vertebrate species and plants. We then mapped their richness in the MLYRB. Distance-based climate velocity analysis was performed to identify climate change coldspots and hotspots. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and InVEST model were coupled to simulate carbon storage changes. Systematic conservation planning tool, Zonation, was used to prioritize species conservation hotspots. By examining the co-occurrence of these hotspots with climate change coldspots/hotspots and areas of high carbon storage, conservation priorities for the MLYRB were revealed. Our findings indicate that 18.27–24.94 % of the MLYRB risks over 20 % species richness declines by 2050 under various scenarios, while increases over 10 % are projected for only 0.81–1.75 % of the area. Co-occurrence analysis highlights significant associations, such as a 32.26 % overlap between species conservation hotspots and climate change hotspots in SSP1–2.6. Particularly noteworthy is the substantial co-occurrence (57.93–59.50 % across scenarios) between areas maximizing species conservation and carbon storage. The identified conservation priority areas, covering 41.95 % of the MLYRB (441554 km2), hold potential for long-term species conservation, climate resilience, and nature-based climate solutions by 2050. However, only 6.08 % of these priorities currently benefit from protection. These results offer valuable guidance for region-specific landscape management and conservation policy aligned with international goals. The presented methodology provides a broader application, serving as a valuable resource for prioritizing conservation efforts in other regions integrating biodiversity, climate change adaptation, and mitigation goals.

Assessing global pine wilt disease risk based on ensemble species distribution models

Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the invasive pine wood nematode, is a major threat to global pine forests. This study utilized global PWD occurrence data alongside climatic, soil, and topographic variables to develop an ensemble of species distribution models. Using this ensemble model, we identified key factors influencing PWD and assessed the risk for current conditions and future periods (2041–2060 and 2071–2090) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that key factors include the average temperature during the hottest quarter, clay content in soil, and precipitation during the hottest quarter, total annual precipitation, and precipitation during the coldest quarter. Currently, southern and northeastern China, central-southern Europe, and Southeast Asia are at high risks. With future climate changes, potential risk areas are expected to expand to higher latitudes, affecting regions like Hokkaido, Canada, and Northern Europe, especially under the SSP585 scenario. This study offers essential insights for global PWD prevention and forests resource conservation.

X-ray occultations in active galactic nuclei: Physical properties of eclipsing clouds as part of the broad-line region cloud ensemble

Context. Short-term X-ray variability in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) can be explained as being due to varying X-ray absorption induced by the temporary occultation of the primary X-ray source, when moving absorbing clouds cross the line of sight to the X-ray source itself. Earlier work suggests that these absorbing clouds have physical properties similar to those of broad-line region (BLR) emitting clouds and are located in the same spatial region. Aims. We intend to extract physical information on each individual absorber associated with any given occultation event detected in our sample and to analyse general properties of the cloud ensemble whose components can produce X-ray eclipses. Methods. From the analysis of previously detected occultation events, two ‘observables’ characterising each single occultation event can be derived: the peak fractional hardness ratio variation (ΔHR/HR) and the duration of the event normalised by a characteristic eclipse timescale evaluated for each AGN source. To determine the eclipsing cloud properties, we devised a procedure a) based on simplifying assumptions on the geometry of both the X-ray source and the cloud-like gas condensations, and on the cloud X-ray absorbing properties in the energy range of interest (2–10 keV), and b) relying on a set of simulated instrumental responses from both XMM and Suzaku relevant instruments to different incoming X-ray spectra, absorbed with varying absorber column density and maximum covering factor during the occultation. Thus, we derived information on the individual cloud producing any given occultation event, determining the cloud radius normalised to that of the X-ray source, the spatial location of the cloud, and an estimate of the cloud gas number density for reasonable values of the equivalent absorber column density. Results. The physical properties of eclipsing clouds that we obtained are consistent with those of BLR clouds. We can exclude the dominance, in the ensemble cloud size distribution, of clouds larger than about 10–12 times the Schwarzschild radius characterising each AGN, and we do not find any significant dependence of the cloud physical size on the distance from the central black hole, in agreement with the results of our previous work. As for the number density of these gas condensations, with our procedure we obtained values within a range of ∼109 − 1011 cm−3, which is consistent with the estimates derived from broad emission line analysis.

Revealing suitable habitats for Juniperus procera and Olea europaea tree species in the remnant dry Afromontane forests of Ethiopia: Insights from ensemble species distribution modeling approach.

Human activities and climate change pose a significant threat to the dry Afromontane forests in Ethiopia, which are essential for millions of people both economically and ecologically. In Ethiopia, trees are planted elsewhere even if they are not likely to be well suited to the area. This study aims to identify the suitable habitat for the most exploited Juniperus procera (J. procera) and Olea europaea (O. europaea) tree species in northern Ethiopia. As inputs, least correlated temperature, moisture, soil, and topographic variables were selected through a stepwise procedure. The study evaluated five individual and ensemble models using the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values. The ensemble model outperformed with mean AUC of 0.95 and TSS of 0.78 for J. procera, while securing the second position for O. europaea with an AUC of 0.88 and TSS of 0.71. Climatic factors emerged as the most influential, followed by soil and topography. Suitable areas for both species were found when Isothermality (Bio3) values range from 52% to 62%, temperature seasonality (Bio4) of 16-29°C. Moreover, well drained soils with soil texture not heavier than sandy clay, and soil organic carbon ranging from 5 to 42 g kg-1 were found suitable. The optimal suitable altitude for J. procera and O. europaea was determined to be 2200-2600 and 2100-2500 m.a.s.l., respectively. The suitable areas for J. procera and O. europaea were estimated to be 3130 and 3946 km2, respectively. Furthermore, potential plantation areas were identified beyond Desa'a and Hugumbirda Grat-Kahsu protected forests, covering 2721 km2 (86.9%) for J. procera and 3576 km2 (90.6%) for O. europaea. These findings hold significance for the conservation and sustainable management of these valuable tree species in northern Ethiopia. We recommend implementing a similar approach for other locally restricted dry Afromontane tree species with wider potential distribution.

Habitat shifts of the vulnerable crinoid Leptometra phalangium under climate change scenarios

Crinoid beds of Leptometra phalangium (Müller, 1841) have been identified as sensitive habitats by the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) due to their high vulnerability to bottom trawl fisheries. Poorly resilient to physical damage, L. phalangium has been listed as a potential indicator of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) in the Mediterranean Sea. If fishing activities represent the main cause of habitat destruction for this species, the ongoing changes in climate conditions may rapidly exacerbate the process. In this study, we developed an ensemble Species Distribution Modeling framework to predict the potential habitat of L. phalangium for present-days in the Mediterranean Sea, and used the model to infer potential changes in its spatial distribution by 2050 under two different climate scenarios (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). True presence-absence records were used and correlated to a parsimonious set of environmental predictors considered as important drivers of benthic species distribution. In present conditions, L. phalangium seems to be widely distributed along the continental slopes of the western and central Mediterranean. This crinoid is often described as confined to the continental shelf-break (100–200 m), but our results show that it can be found over a wider depth range, between 100 and 500 m. Our predictions obtained for the mid-21st century indicate an important habitat loss for L. phalangium under future climate conditions, mainly in the central and southern basins. Declines of 50 to 70 % in its suitable habitat were predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 compared to present-day predictions. Climate refugia (i.e., areas where environmental conditions remain suitable for the species in the future) were restricted to the northwestern basin (e.g., Gulf of Lion, the Catalan Sea, the Balearic Sea, Ligurian Sea) and in the southern Adriatic Sea. Provided by a robust statistical framework, climate refugia predictions, along with uncertainty assessments, must support the identification of priority areas for the conservation of VME indicator species by governmental bodies and regional management organizations.

Diversity pattern of Symplocos tree species in China under climate change scenarios: Toward conservation planning

Symplocos, a genus rich in endemic and keystone species in China's subtropical forests, plays a vital role in maintaining biodiversity. Climate change impacts on Symplocos trees affect ecosystem composition, dynamics, and functions. This study delves into the potential ramifications of climate change on the distribution and richness of Symplocos species across China under different climatic conditions. A comprehensive analysis was conducted using occurrence records of 29 species of Symplocos, focusing on habitat suitability modeling and spatial analysis, to demonstrate the possible effects of climate change on the distribution and diversity patterns of Symplocos species in China. Environmental data, including bioclimatic variables, were collected, and the future climate scenarios were projected using the combined average of the two global climate models. Four modeling algorithms were applied in an ensemble species distribution models to assess the distribution of Symplocos species and decipher the pattern of species richness and endemism. The results indicate high accuracy and performance of the models with a mean AUC of 0.94 and TSS of 0.77, particularly the random forest. The analysis identified key bioclimatic variables influencing Symplocos species distribution, with precipitation patterns (precipitation of driest month and precipitation of warmest quarter) and temperature variability (temperature mean diurnal range) playing significant roles. Predictions suggest a reduction in Symplocos species richness over the next six decades, particularly in southern and southwestern China, with potential gains in other regions. Overall, this study highlights the vulnerability of Symplocos species to climate change and underscores the importance of proactive conservation efforts and forest plantations to mitigate future loss in Symplocos species diversity.

High‐Resolution Ensemble Modelling of Coral Distributions in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Based on Geomorphometry: Coral Diversity and Benthic Habitat Fragmentation From Oil and Gas Infrastructure to Inform Spatial Planning

ABSTRACTThe northern Gulf of Mexico is home to several species of corals that provide a wide range of ecosystem services to other organisms. Oil and gas infrastructure, such as platforms and pipelines, form an extensive network throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico. Detrimental impacts associated with oil and gas exploration and extraction have been recorded in this area at depths where corals are found. Due to these ecosystems' vulnerability to long‐term impacts, it is necessary to determine areas of interest that would benefit from further exploration and informed spatial planning. This study aimed to identify potential areas of interest for coral studies in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble species distribution models for 13 species of corals including scleractinians, black corals, and octocorals were produced based on seafloor characteristics and combined to identify areas with relatively higher coral diversity potential than others. The ensemble modelling approach produced robust outputs, as evaluated by the area under the curve, Cohen's kappa coefficient, sensitivity, specificity and the proportion of correct predictions. The proximity of suitable habitat to active and proposed oil and gas infrastructure was evaluated; this spatial analysis showed that oil and gas infrastructures potentially impact 23.5% of all predicted suitable coral habitat in the study area and contribute to benthic habitat fragmentation. Twelve areas of interest greater than 100 km2 and located outside a 4‐km zone of potential influence from oil and gas infrastructure were delineated and deemed of interest for further exploration and spatial planning, and hypothetical prioritization scenarios for spatial planning are presented. The maps produced can inform discussions among stakeholders to reach the best spatial planning outcomes while considering other ecological, social, economic and governance factors.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Plum Fruit Moth Grapholita funebrana Treitscheke Using Ensemble Models.

The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. funebrana at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape G. funebrana's distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative G. molesta, which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.

Stochastic effects on plankton dynamics: Insights from a realistic 0-dimensional marine biogeochemical model

Marine ecosystems exist in a noisy and uncertain environment, not governed by deterministic laws. The development of ecological communities is significantly influenced by variability, and the interaction between nonlinearity and stochastic processes can lead to phenomena that deterministic models cannot explain. Plankton, forming the base of the marine food web, are highly affected by stochastic fluctuations due to their short reproductive timescales. Investigating the effects of noise on plankton growth is essential for accurately describing and predicting marine health. We present a realistic biogeochemical model where multiplicative white noise represents environmental stochasticity affecting plankton. The model suggests ergodic properties in the presence of stochastic fluctuations, with temporal and ensemble distributions being coherent. Analytical and numerical analyses reveal that, given sufficiently low noise intensity, dynamics near equilibrium resemble an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck additive process. With higher noise intensities, resonance occurs, particularly when endogenous dynamics are periodic. The results indicate that low noise intensity can positively influence plankton persistence with an higher number of species coexisting, while higher noise intensity can establish a new equilibrium in the system.

Predicted future range expansion of a small carnivore: swift fox in North America

ContextSmall carnivores are declining globally due to a complex suite of threats. Conservation of these species requires an understanding of their distributions and potential responses to future land-use and climate change.ObjectivesWe modelled species-environment relationships of swift fox (Vulpes velox), a species of concern across their range. We developed spatial projections of current and future distribution to aid in conservation planning.MethodsWe assembled swift fox occurrence data from managers and community science sources to develop ensemble distribution models. In addition to landscape and climatic predictors, we developed a model of red fox distribution to represent effects of competition. We forecasted spatial predictions into the year 2070 under two climate change scenarios representing high (SSP 5–8.5) and low (SSP 1–2.6) emissions scenarios.ResultsPercent cover by grassland, mean annual precipitation, and minimum temperature of the coldest quarter were the three most important variables for swift fox distribution. Current suitable habitat for swift fox extends across 16 North American states and provinces. Future projections of swift fox distribution suggest an overall increase in area of swift fox suitable habitat under both emissions scenarios of > 56.9%, though patterns of gain and loss vary spatially.ConclusionsThe expansion of suitable habitat in future scenarios reflects swift fox adaptability to multiple land uses in a period following multi-organizational conservation efforts. Our spatial projections can be used in conservation planning and can serve as a case study of a small carnivore species likely to recover under future change scenarios provided that threats are addressed and landscape-scale conservation efforts continue.

Senecio inaequidens DC. will thrive in future climate: A case study in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot

Monitoring the expansion of invasive non-native plants under current and future climatic conditions is crucial for understanding biodiversity threats, addressing the ecological impact, and developing effective management strategies. This study focuses on modelling the expansion and distribution of Senecio inaequidens DC. on the island of Sardinia (Italy) to address these environmental challenges. The objectives were to identify bio-climatically suitable areas under current conditions, project potential future distribution, and evaluate invasion dynamics on the island to localize suitable areas for effective management strategies.Species data were collected from 1991 to the present, supplemented by global databases and analyzed using an ensemble species distribution model approach. This approach utilized presence data, high-resolution current bioclimatic variables (40 m2), developed explicitly for our study area, and two future scenarios derived from the newly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for 2040 and 2060).The ensemble model's findings suggest a close alignment between the currently documented occurrences of S. inaequidens and its bio-climatically suitable habitats in Sardinia. Moreover, predictions indicate high bioclimatic suitability for S. inaequidens in the western and southwestern coastal regions, contrasting with its known occurrences at higher altitudes. Notably, the model also forecasts high bio-climatic suitability across most small islands surrounding the region and in central-east Sardinia, potentially indicating habitats at lower altitudes compared to current records.Under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, suitable areas are expected to nearly double by 2040 and more than double by 2060, compared to current conditions. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, the increase in suitable habitats is projected to be about 83.31% by 2040 and more than double by 2060. These results highlight the species' ability to thrive under climate change, with a more pronounced range expansion under the pessimistic management regime (SSP5–8.5) than under the intermediate one (SSP2–4.5), particularly in the central region of the island. This expansion under the more severe management scenario is particularly alarming as it reflects limited implementation of environmental management policies.The study underscores the potential ecological risk posed by S. inaequidens due to its potential range expansion and ability to invade different habitat types, from coastal regions to mountainous areas, under current and future scenarios. Based on these findings, we propose targeted management actions for monitoring and eradicating the species, leveraging prior information and local experiences to mitigate its impact.