Enhance Climate Change Adaptation Research Articles

Functional groups of leaf phenology are key to build climate-resilience in cocoa agroforestry systems

Agroforestry has the potential to enhance climate change adaptation. While benefits from agroforestry systems consisting of cash crops and shade trees are usually attributed to the (shade) trees, the trees can also have negative impacts due to resource competition with crops. Our hypothesis is that leaf phenology and height of shade trees determine their seasonal effect on crops. We test this hypothesis by categorizing shade tree species into functional groups based on leaf phenology, shade tree canopy height and shade tree light (wet and dry season) interception as well as the effects. To this end, leaf phenology and the effects on microclimate (temperature, air humidity, intercepted photoactive radiation (PAR)), soil water, stomatal conductance and cocoa yield were monitored monthly during wet and dry seasons over a two-year period on smallholder cocoa plantations in the northern cocoa belt of Ghana. Seven leaf phenological groups were identified. In the wet season, highest buffering effect of microclimate was recorded under the trees brevi-deciduous before dry season. During dry season, high PAR and lowest reduction in soil moisture were observed under the trees in the group of completely deciduous during dry season. The evergreen groups also showed less reduction in soil water than the brevi-deciduous groups. In the wet season, shade tree effects on cocoa tree yields in their sub canopy compared to the respective control of outer canopy with full sun ranged from positive (+10 %) to negative (-15 %) for the deciduous groups, while yield reductions for the evergreen groups ranged from −20 % to −33 %. While there were negative yield impacts for all phenological groups in the dry season, the trees in completely deciduous during dry season group recorded least penalties (-12 %) and the trees with evergreen upper canopy the highest (-35 %). The function of shade trees in enhancing climate resilience is therefore strongly dependent on their leaf phenological characteristics. Our study demonstrates how the key trait leaf phenology can be applied to successful design of climate-resilient agroforestry systems.

Millets and sorghum as promising alternatives to maize for enhancing climate change adaptation strategies in the Mediterranean Basin

ContextClimate change is increasingly requiring the adoption of both climate-resilient alternative crops and sustainable management practices. Millets and sorghum are increasingly recommended as alternatives to maize in addressing these issues, yet there are no studies comparing the environmental impacts of food-crop millets and sorghum with maize, under sustainable management in Mediterranean area. ObjectiveThe present study examined for the first time the environmental and economic impacts, as well as agronomic performances, of rainfed cultivated proso millet, sorghum and maize over a three-year period under challenging climatic conditions in Emilia-Romagna region, Italy. MethodsDifferent kinds of trials were realized during three years of experimentation in one location in Ravenna province. The first trial aimed to compare proso millet, sorghum and maize agronomical performances and water use efficiency in a low-input system. The second trial aimed to compare soil fertility and biodiversity impacts of two different agronomical management systems (low-input and high input) for the summer crops previously described. Soil basic fertility parameters were monitored and ground dwelling arthropods were collected and analyzed using pitfall traps. The last trial of this study intended to evaluate the environmental and economic performances of the previous cereal crops cultivated in the low-input and high-input systems, applying the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and the Life Cycle Costing (LCC) methodologies. ResultsBoth organic sorghum and millet showed high potential as viable summer-crop alternatives, not only to organic maize, based on yield, water use efficiency, disease tolerance and weed competition, but also to conventional maize, based on reduced environmental and economic impacts. Positive land impacts including improved beneficial arthropod abundances and preserved soil fertility were evident under organic management. In fact, the comparative LCA and LCC, carried out with primary data from conventionally cultivated maize and sorghum within central-north Italy and the organic experimental field under investigation, showed that the Global Warming and Eutrophication Potential, were comparable between the organically cultivated crops and significantly lower than conventional maize and sorghum. ConclusionsThe results highlighted the potential of sorghum and millet cultivation as rainfed summer-crop alternative to maize in climate-change context, especially in low-input agronomical systems. In particular, under rainfed, organic management over three years, proso millet yielded consistently. ImplicationsUnder the sustainable practices of the present study, proso millet outperformed maize for yield and WUE stability, as well as potential costs saved, related to the production amount per unit area and potential revenue.

Cultural Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture an Ethnoecological Study

In an era where climate change is becoming increasingly apparent, adaptation in the agricultural sector is becoming more crucial. This research adopts a literature study approach to explore the cultural perspective on climate change adaptation in agriculture through the lens of ethnoecology. Through searching and analyzing relevant literature, the main findings indicate that local culture plays a significant role in shaping farmers' adaptation practices. These practices include the utilization of traditional knowledge, cultural values, and local knowledge systems to respond to the challenges of climate change. It is found that local wisdom is not merely an additional resource but an integral aspect in strengthening the resilience of farming communities. However, challenges such as limited access to resources and economic uncertainty remain barriers to adaptation efforts. Therefore, the integration of local knowledge into policy planning and the development of local capacity are relevant recommendations to enhance climate change adaptation in agriculture. This research provides insights into the complexity of the relationship between culture and climate change adaptation in agriculture, highlighting the importance of strengthening the involvement of local communities in mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Grassroots Solutions for Global Challenges: The Role of Self-Help Groups in Building Sustainable Livelihoods and Resilience to Climate Change in Nyakach, Kenya

The impact of climate change in developing countries such as prolonged droughts, flooding and erratic rainfall, among other effects are increasingly driving agricultural-dependent households into deeper poverty each year. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies, involving both local and global efforts. Self-help groups (SHGs) are recognized as powerful instruments for the empowerment of vulnerable groups, particularly women, by providing access to credit and health information. They also play a crucial role in climate change adaptation and mitigation, which in turn enhances sustainable livelihoods for their members. However, this aspect has received limited attention in academic research. This study explores the nexus between SHGs, climate change mitigation, and sustainable livelihoods in Nyakach Sub County, a region where persistent poverty is exacerbated by recurrent climate shocks. A descriptive research design was employed, involving a sample of 384 respondents selected from members of 630 self-help groups (SHGs) in Nyakach Sub County, Kenya. The study's findings show that SHG members benefit from SHGs facilitated capital assets some of which that have not only led to reduced reliance on firewood, thus mitigating deforestation, but also facilitated a transition to alternative energy sources. This shift has enhanced their adaptive capacity to challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, a significant correlation (rs=0.659, p=0.014) was observed between SHG-associated resources and competencies in climate change mitigation, as well as household sustainability. Additionally, collective action, such as participation in tree planting and trenching/water channelling to combat flood effects, showed a strong correlation with SHG-associated resources. Overall, the study concludes that SHG-linked assets and competencies play a vital role in enhancing climate change adaptation and the sustainable livelihoods of members. The study recommends increased emphasis on strengthening social capital within SHGs.
 

Local knowledge matters: understanding the decision-making processes of communities under climate change in Suriname

IntroductionTraditionally, local communities have relied on practical observations accumulated over extended periods to inform their decision-making. This knowledge is now recognized as a viable solution for communities to adapt to climate change effectively. The impact of climate change brings an extra layer of complexity to local communities' detection- and decision-making processes, which needs to be better comprehended.MethodologyOur study builds on the foundation of conflict resolution and examines the knowledge systems and corresponding decision-making processes of local communities living in urban, rural, and tropical forest regions of Suriname, South America.ResultsThe mixed-method study showed that the autonomous decision-making processes of these communities are guided by their knowledge systems, intertwined with values and interests. Forest communities in remote locations rely solely on their robust knowledge base for crafting adaptation solutions, while urban and rural communities near the administrative centers develop adaptation strategies primarily considering their access to social networks and relative power.DiscussionThe study highlights local knowledge as the primary determinant for the direction communities take in adaptation, with tradeoffs becoming evident as communities navigate the broader social context. The recognition and integration of this knowledge emerge as a critical factor in enhancing climate change adaptation at the local level.

Impact of irrigation on vulnerability of winter wheat under extreme climate change scenario: a case study of North China Plain

An inadequate understanding of the impacts of adaptation countermeasures tends to exaggerate the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural systems. Motivated by proposing reasonable climate change adaptation countermeasures, the present study applied the EPIC model to quantify the impacts of climate change and irrigation changes with future socioeconomic development on agricultural production. Winter wheat yield losses using dynamic irrigation parameters in the North China Plain (NCP) from 2010 to 2099 under a scenario coupling climate change and future socioeconomic development (RCP8.5-SSP3), and those under an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5), were simulated. Results show that EPIC model demonstrates superior performance in simulating winter wheat yields in NCP (RMSE = 12.79 kg/ha), with the distribution of simulated and observed yields is relatively consistent. The winter wheat yield loss in the NCP was high in the south and low in the north. The yield loss rate of winter wheat was 0.21 under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, compared with 0.35 under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating a superior climatic adaptation of irrigation. However, under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, the yield loss rate increased from 0.17 in the near term to 0.26 in the long term, implying the benefits of irrigation will be diminished with long-term climate change. It is noteworthy that yield improvement was facilitated by irrigation in part of the NCP (accounting for 14.6% area), suggesting that irrigation may lead to an increase in winter wheat yields in some regions even under extreme climate change conditions. This study highlights the significance of quantitatively revealing the benefits and limitations of adaptive countermeasures which could assist in enhancing climate change adaptation while preserving a sustainable agricultural system.

Let’s Do It for Real: Making the Ecosystem Service Concept Operational in Regional Planning for Climate Change Adaptation

The application of ecosystem service (ES) knowledge to planning processes and decision-making can lead to more effective climate change adaptation. Despite the increased attention given to the ES concept, its degree of integration and use in spatial planning processes are still below the expectations of those who are promoting this concept. Barriers hindering its operationalisation cover a span of aspects ranging from theoretical to procedural and methodological issues. Overall, there is a general lack of guidance on how and at what point ES knowledge should be integrated into planning processes. This study aims to promote the inclusion of ES knowledge into spatial planning practices and decision-making processes to enhance climate change adaptation. A replicable GIS-based methodology is proposed. First, the potential supply of ESs that can support climate change adaptation (ESCCAs) is defined, mapped, and quantified. Then, a need for an ESCCA supply is identified, and territorial capacities to respond to the expected climate change impacts on natural and socio-economic sectors are assessed. The methodology is applied to the Friuli Venezia Giulia Autonomous Region (Italy) as an illustrative case study. The results reveal that areas with similar geomorphological characteristics tend to respond similarly. Forest ecosystems, inland wetlands and specifically salt marshes can potentially supply a greater variety of ESCCAs. In the case study area, about 62% of the supplied ESCCAs can contribute to reducing the impacts in more than 50% of the impacted sectors. The territory of the study site generally shows good preparedness for expected impacts in most of the analysed sectors; less prepared areas are characterised by agricultural ecosystems. This reading approach based on land cover analyses can thus assist in developing policies to enhance different territorial capacities, ultimately leading to better and more sustainable decision-making.

Enhancing adaptation to climate change by fostering collective action groups among smallholders in Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change adaptation is increasingly recognized by subsistence farmers in Pakistan. The problem of climate change is severe, and smallholders are often resource constrained when it comes to adapting to it. However, such constraints can be overcome through collective responses. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of collective action among smallholder farmers to determine how it influences local adaptation processes. This study explores the impact of farmer’s collective action groups (CAGs) on adopting climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices in poverty-stricken areas of rural Punjab, Pakistan. The data was collected through a cross-sectional survey, and for the analysis purpose, the Recursive bivariate probit regression (RBP) model was employed. The first stage estimates of RBP models suggest that the farmer’s decision to participate in CAGs is mainly influenced by factors such as education, credit access, climate change risk perception, and peer influence. The second stage estimates showed a positive and significant impact of farmers’ participation in collective action groups on adopting climate change adaptation strategies across all three models. The study concludes that the farmers participating in collective action groups have a higher climate change adaptation level. It is recommended that the pro-poor policies be designed to negate the entry barriers, facilitate the inclusion of the farmers in the collective action groups, and enhance climate change adaptation among smallholders.

Co-Cultivation and Matching of Early- and Late-Maturing Pearl Millet Varieties to Sowing Windows Can Enhance Climate-Change Adaptation in Semi-Arid Sub-Saharan Agroecosystems

In semi-arid regions, climate change has affected crop growing season length and sowing time, potentially causing low yield of the rainfed staple crop pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) and food insecurity among smallholder farmers. In this study, we used 1994–2023 rainfall data from Namibia’s semi-arid North-Central Region (NCR), receiving November–April summer rainfall, to analyze rainfall patterns and trends and their implications on the growing season to propose climate adaptation options for the region. The results revealed high annual and monthly rainfall variabilities, with nonsignificant negative trends for November–February rainfalls, implying a shortening growing season. Furthermore, we determined the effects of sowing date on grain yields of the early-maturing Okashana-2 and local landrace Kantana pearl millet varieties and the optimal sowing window for the region, using data from a two-year split-plot field experiment conducted at the University of Namibia—Ogongo Campus, NCR, during the rainy season. Cubic polynomial regression models were applied to grain-yield data sets to predict grain production for any sowing date between January and March. Both varieties produced the highest grain yields under January sowings, with Kantana exhibiting a higher yield potential than Okashana-2. Kantana, sown by 14 January, had a yield advantage of up to 36% over Okashana-2, but its yield gradually reduced with delays in sowing. Okashana-2 exhibited higher yield stability across January sowings, surpassing Kantana’s yields by up to 9.4% following the 14 January sowing. We determined the pearl millet optimal sowing window for the NCR to be from 1–7 and 1–21 January for Kantana and Okashana-2, respectively. These results suggest that co-cultivation of early and late pearl millet varieties and growing early-maturing varieties under delayed seasons could stabilize grain production in northern Namibia and enhance farmers’ climate adaptation. Policymakers for semi-arid agricultural regions could utilize this information to adjust local seed systems and extension strategies.

Enhancing climate change adaptation governance through transforming institutions in Kwa-Zulu Natal Province, South Africa

PurposeGlobally, climate change governance continues to be a significant challenge to policymakers, environmentalists and politicians despite international summits, conferences and programmes designed to find sustainable solutions to the climate change crises. Climate change continues to be viewed primarily as a challenge for the future, whereas many leaders and administrators globally regard it as an environmental issue rather than a challenge that encompasses all aspects of life. In South Africa, these misleading perceptions of climate change continue to prevail both at national and local levels. The government and private organisations do not attach the required levels of urgency needed to address the climate change crisis. While numerous policies and institutions have been established to address these challenges, they lack financial backing, coordination and synergy that cut across the broad objectives of environmental, social and economic agendas. Additionally, weak, eroding trust and manipulating of institutions continue to hinder effective policy implementation and focus-driven governance. This paper aims to explore the structural and governance weaknesses of climate change administration in the KwaZulu-Natal province and South Africa in general.Design/methodology/approachThis paper used extensive literature reviews and a triangulated approach to investigate the weaknesses of the current governance structure in the context of institutional and capacity constraints.FindingsThe findings uncovered that most institutions and organisations mandated to address climate change challenges operate in silos, lack required investment and capacity and have weak accountability mechanisms with a shallow understanding of climate change governance.Originality/valueThis paper recommends better coordination between national, provincial and local governments as well as the private sector towards climate change activities and capacity to ensure that climate change actions are effectively implemented.

Digitalization and Climate Change Adaptation in China

This study develops policy recommendations for the utilization of digital tools to enhance climate change adaptation in China, in response to the ever-transforming living environments due to climate change effects. As the digital economy in China continues to progress, leveraging these technologies to augment adaptation capabilities is deemed both essential and advantageous. This article first identifies China's primary climate change adaptation challenges, followed by an examination of successful digital solutions from countries outside of China. These solutions are then evaluated in the Chinese context, leading to the formation of policy recommendations to advance similar initiatives.

Role of Indigenous and local knowledge in seasonal forecasts and climate adaptation: A case study of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe

Accessible, reliable and diverse sources of climate information are needed to inform climate change adaptation at all levels of society, particularly for vulnerable sectors such as smallholder farming. Globally, many smallholder farmers use Indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) to forecast weather and climate; however, less is known about how the use of these forecasts connects to decisions and actions for reducing climate risks. We examined the role of IK and LK in seasonal forecasting and the broader climate adaptation decision-making of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. The data were collected from a sample of 100 smallholder farmers. Seventy-three of the 100 interviewed farmers used IK and LK weather and climate forecasts, and 32% relied solely on IK and LK forecasts for climate adaptation decision-making. Observations of cuckoo birds, leaf-sprouting of Mopane trees, high summer temperatures, and Nimbus clouds are the main indicators used for IK and LK forecasts. The use of IK and LK climate forecasts was significantly positively associated with increasing farmer age and farmland size. Farmers using IK and LK forecasts implemented, on average, triple the number of adaptation measures compared with farmers not using IK and LK. These findings demonstrate the widespread reliance of farmers on IK and LK for seasonal forecasts, and the strong positive link between the use of IK and LK and the implementation of climate adaptation actions. This positive association between IK and LK usage and the implementation of adaptation actions may be widespread in smallholder farming communities throughout Africa and globally. Recognition and inclusion of IK and LK in climate services is important to ensure their continued potential for enhancing climate change adaptation.

Factors affecting adoption intensity of climate change adaptation practices: A case of smallholder rice producers in Chitwan, Nepal

This study examines how smallholder rice producers' adoption intensity for climate change adaptation practices (i.e., improved varieties, irrigation practices, direct seeded rice, integrated pest management, and adjustment in crop calendar) is influenced by access to Extension services, training, weather-related information, and membership in farmer groups or cooperatives (referred to as “institutional resources”). We use survey data collected from 359 smallholder rice producers in the Chitwan district of Nepal in 2019. The results indicate that: (1) access to institutional resources significantly enhance the likelihood of adoption of more climate change adaptation practices; (2) high intensity climate change adaptation practice measured by the adoption of three, four, and five practices significantly increases with access to institutional resources; (3) intensity of adoption of climate change adaptation practices is reduced with greater adaptation alternatives available to rice producers; and (4) lack of information and technical knowledge are the most important reasons for non-adoption of climate change adaptation practices by smallholder rice producers. The results are valuable for policy makers and planners to prioritize training opportunities and allocate scarce resources to enhance climate change adaptation and improve sustainability of rice production practices.

Unraveling the challenges of Japanese local climate change adaptation centers: A discussion and analysis

Under the Climate Change Adaptation Act, Local Climate Change Adaptation Centers (LCCACs) enhance climate change adaptation at the local level in Japan by gathering, analyzing, and disseminating essential information on climate change and its impacts on their communities. Although no literature has yet investigated the obstacles encountered by LCCACs, it is plausible that LCCACs may have encountered several difficulties, such as a scarcity of resources, in its operations. We aimed to examine these challenges through a mixed-method research design. We first conducted a structured interview survey with 25 LCCACs in Japan to assess their adaptive capacity. We found that LCCACs can be classified into three groups based on their capacity. Then a questionnaire survey was implemented to determine the challenges limiting their success. For example, all three groups agreed that a lack of human and financial resources and insufficient cooperation with business sector are significant challenges. On the other hand, the results showed that the LCCACs with low adaptive capacity showed specific difficulties, such as the lack of experience and expertise in climate change adaptation. These results revealed that the LCCACs in Japan showed diverse levels of adaptive capacity, and they have different challenges derived from their various experience and resources. Our findings indicated that support from national and local governments and relevant institutions should be tailored to meet the specific needs and challenges of each LCCACs. Our analytical framework can be extended to other countries in order to comprehend the challenges that local actions of adaptation to climate change encompass, as the indicators and difficulties targeted in this study possess a high degree of versatility.

Mainstreaming Ecosystem-Based Disaster Risk Reduction: Towards a Sustainable and Just Transition in Local Development Planning in Rural South Africa

Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) is gaining momentum globally and is also considered to enhance climate change adaptation and sustainable transition to a low-carbon economy in South Africa. However, there is little evidence regarding how the approach is applied at the local level. It also remains unclear to what extent the approach is integrated into local development planning and what opportunities exist for further integration in rural areas. Therefore, our study examined opportunities for mainstreaming Eco-DRR into local development planning in South Africa. Fourteen integrated development plans from ‘mostly rural’ local municipalities in Limpopo Province were systematically assessed to understand the process of mainstreaming Eco-DRR into their current development plans under the following aspects: localized climate trends, hydroclimatic risks considered, risk and vulnerability assessments, disaster risk reduction (DRR) actions, early-warning systems, financing mechanisms, integration of traditional and technical knowledge, stakeholder engagement, and alignment with district, provincial, and national priorities. Although all plans address DRR, none explicitly addresses Eco-DRR, despite a few similar actions. DRR actions are not aligned to any hydroclimatic risks, and most plans lack localized climate trends and/or vulnerability assessments to indicate the severity of hazards and/or identify populations and areas at risk. Several measures in the plans address disaster preparedness, but none includes early-warning systems. Public participation features prominently in all plans, but the process is marred by challenges and lacks genuineness, e.g., prioritized actions are not reflective of community needs. Based on the findings, we discuss measures to enhance the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches into DRR. We conclude that a huge opportunity exists to institutionalize and mainstream Eco-DRR into local development planning in South Africa’s rural areas. If carefully seized, such an opportunity can also help attract external finance to complement the currently constrained budgets related to addressing hydroclimatic risks.

Gender and climate change adaptation: A case of Ethiopian farmers

AbstractThe adverse impacts of climate change, in many cases, aggravate existing gender inequalities and hinder developing countries from achieving the targets set by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is, therefore, crucial to understand whether there exists a gender gap in climate change adaptation and investigate the factors explaining the gap to reduce the vulnerability of the farming households to surging climatic risks. Using data from 2279 farm households in Ethiopia and applying a multivariate probit model and exogenous switching treatment effect regression method, this study examines the existing gender gap in climate change adaptations among farmers in Ethiopia and factors contributing to this relationship. The results show a significant gender gap in climate change adaptation in farming households due to the differences in both observable and unobservable characteristics of male‐ and female‐headed households. It indicates that reducing the gap can enhance climate change adaptation by female‐headed households by almost 19%. Women's workload in household chores significantly reduces their likelihood to adopt climate change adaptation measures. Therefore, unless policies proposed target institutional factors, including social and cultural barriers, traditional gender norms and division of labor, and other intrinsic behavioral issues, addressing only observed characteristics may not fully address the gender gap. To bring about transformational changes in the existing gender norms and social attitudes, long‐term gender‐informed policies are essential, along with short‐term projects, to address the gender gap in climate change adaptation through the provision of equitable opportunities for all.

Local Institutions in Climate Change Adaptation by Smallholder Farmers: A farm level study in Homabay County, Kenya.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of local institutions in climate change adaptation by smallholder farmers in Homabay County, Kenya. The study employed cross-sectional survey design in which data was collected from smallholder farmers in one survey round. Quantitative data was collected from 398 smallholder farmers, while 48 key informant interviews and 12 focus group discussions were used to collect qualitative data to buttress information from farmers. Data was analysed using frequencies, percentages, cross-tabulations and chi-square at 0.05 significance level. The study established that local institutions and social networks had a positive influence on climate change adaptation by smallholder farmers. Local institutions and social groups enable smallholder farmers to deploy specific climate change adaptation practices. Local institutions pursue adoption of effective adaptation strategies relevant to local needs of the smallholder farmers. They also provide information on climate change adaptation options and give some external support to enable farmers cope with climate change. The study recommended the need to promote institutional partnership to enhance climate change adaptation at local level. Partnerships among local institutions are associated with area specific adaptation practices and communal pooling. The study also recommended the need to enhance the capacity of local institutions as the impacts of climate change are likely to intensify with time. Support in the form of new information and technology aimed at improving effective coping mechanisms and financial support will be necessary.

Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate

This research study evaluated the projected future climate and anticipated impacts on water-linked sectors on the transboundary Limpopo River Basin (LRB) with a focus on South Africa. Streamflow was simulated from two CORDEX-Africa regional climate models (RCMs) forced by the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, the CanESM2m and IPSL-CM5A-MR climate models. Three climate projection time intervals were considered spanning from 2006 to 2099 and delineated as follows: current climatology (2006–2035), near future (2036–2065) and end of century future projection (2070–2099). Statistical metrics derived from the projected streamflow were used to assess the impacts of the changing climate on water-linked sectors. These metrics included streamflow trends, low and high flow quantile probabilities, the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) trends and the proportion (%) of dry and wet years, as well as drought monitoring indicators. Based on the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, the LRB is projected to experience reduced streamflow in both the near and the distant future. The basin is projected to experience frequent dry and wet conditions that can translate to drought and flash floods, respectively. In particular, a high proportion of dry and a few incidences of wet years are expected in the basin in the future. In general, the findings of this research study will inform and enhance climate change adaptation and mitigation policy decisions and implementation thereof, to sustain the livelihoods of vulnerable communities.

Social and Environmental Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability in the Niger Delta region, Nigeria

Studies have revealed that the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is only three meter above mean sea level and their coastline is dynamic in nature which renders hundreds of coastal communities exposed and vulnerable to climate change risk and hazards. The region is faced with seasonal flooding, increase in temperature, high precipitation, erosion, river salinization, ocean surges and siltation. In this paper, we reviewed over 80 publications on related subjects of social, economic and environmental drivers of climate change vulnerability in the Niger Delta and their recurring and predicted impacts. Lack of empirical baseline data on climate change, inadequate enforcement of environmental laws, insignificant state fiscal budget on climate change, lack of political will and low interest of political leadership, absence of state policies aimed to enhance climate change adaptation and mitigation, persistent cases of oil spills and gas flaring by multinational oil companies, low public awareness and inadequate technical capacity were identified and analyzed as multidimensional factors militating against local effort for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Niger Delta region. The state governments, multinational oil companies, intervention agencies, research institutions and critical community stakeholders especially in coastal areas in the Niger Delta should work together to achieve a systematic integrated plan for long term risk prevention and impact reduction through adaptation and mitigation approaches. Furthermore, strategic local solutions should include the assessment of impacts of climate change on social, environmental, and economic sector at the state, local government and community level. This should be accompanied with smart green policy measures and implementation of elaborate regional climate change education programs, development of skill sets for green entrepreneurship among youths and established framework of sustainable economic development in the region.

English

Climate change/variability is a global concern that is seriously affecting developing and least developed countries which rain-fed based agriculture is predominantly the basis for  their livelihood and socio-economic system. Adverse impacts of climate change and variability, in most developing and least developed countries like Ethiopia, is growing in time and exert pressure on agricultural systems which changes the balance among the key determinants of crop growth and yield. As a result, the demand for investigating and understanding the expected negative impacts of climate change and variability on food production is increasing. Accordingly, this study tried to investigate impacts of climate change on sorghum production using projected future climate scenarios data. Climate change scenario data for 20 global climate models were downscaled from the fifth assessment report on coupled model inter-comparison project of intergovernmental panel on climate change. CERES-Sorghum model was calibrated and validated using soil, weather and crop management data conducted at Kobo agricultural experiment site. The result revealed that yield variation was observed  across locations, climate models and time periods considered. Despite uncertainties, maximum yield reduction in sorghum is projected by the end of the 21st century when maximum insolation has reached 8.5 W/m2. In general, the result indicated that, sorghum production in north eastern Ethiopia is expected to be affected negatively in the future. Therefore, this finding would give a preliminary information for policy and decision making process to enhance climate change adaptation.   Key words: Climate change, impact assessment, crop, models, climate, sorghum.