Engineering Center's Modeling System Research Articles

Abstract Artificial adjustment and urbanization are key factors of global change and have significant influences on hydrological processes. This study focuses on the effects of urban land-use patterns on flood regimes in a typical urbanized basin in eastern China. Comprehensive assessments of urban land-use patterns were implemented on three levels: total imperviousness area (TIA) magnitude, landscape configuration and relative location in the basin. Hydrologic Engineering Center's Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was calibrated and validated using four groups of parameters associated with land-use conditions. Fourteen flood events were simulated based on 10 land-use scenarios with different land-use patterns. The results indicate that floods are closely associated with three landscape pattern indicators. First, over the past 20 years, the impermeability rate has increased from 3.92 to 17.48%, with the landscape pattern converted from extension growth form to fill-up growth form after 2003. Second, the average flood peak discharge increased by 80% due to impermeable surfaces expansion, with minor floods more sensitive to the expansion than major floods. Third, the contribution of imperviousness expansion to peak discharge in the inner basin is more remarkable than downstream of the river basin, with the landscape pattern metrics of TIA, arable land and forest land displaying strong correlations with flood characteristics.