Energy Transition Model Research Articles

Building the Bridge: How System Dynamics Models Operationalise Energy Transitions and Contribute towards Creating an Energy Policy Toolbox

The complexity and multi-dimensionality of energy transitions are broadly recognised, and insights from transition research increasingly support policy decision making. Sustainability transition scholars have been developing mostly qualitative socio-technical transition (STT) frameworks, and modelling has been argued to be complementary to these frameworks, for example for policy testing. We systematically evaluate five system dynamics (SD) energy models on their representation of key STT characteristics. Our results demonstrate that (i) the evaluated models incorporate most of the core characteristics of STT, and (ii) the policies tested in the models address different levels and aspects of the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework. In light of the increasing emergence of energy (transition) models, we recommend to systematically map models and their tested policy interventions into the MLP framework or other sustainability transition frameworks, creating an overview of tested policies (a “policy navigator”). This navigator supports policy makers and modellers alike, facilitating them to find previously tested policy options and related models for particular policy objectives.

Investigating the impact of housing price increases on consumption: heterogeneity by age, tenure and housing quality

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand the distributional impact of house price increases on consumption in the context of the energy transition.Design/methodology/approachThis study draws from two micro cross-sectional datasets, the English Housing Survey (EHS) and the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCFS) to study the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) out of changes in house prices. By employing pseudo-panel regressions, the paper examines the impact of house price changes on consumption among diverse household types.FindingsThis paper finds varying consumption responses to house price changes across age and tenure groups. Older homeowners tend to increase consumption when house prices rise. In contrast, middle-aged individuals, often renters or mortgage holders, reduce consumption in response to price increases. The youngest age group also experiences increased consumption but to a lesser degree than the oldest group. Energy-efficient homes are related to lower consumption across all tenure levels. However, when interacted with house prices and age, the estimates are positive, pointing to an unequal accrual of property premiums depending on housing market positions.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitations stem from data constraints. First, using a pseudo-panel approach hinders control for unobservable selection bias. Additionally, while robust under cross-validation and specifications tests, the energy efficiency variable imputation results in a low number of energy-efficient homes. Due to heterogeneous responses to rising house prices, this paper contends that an energy transition model that subsidises homeowners’ renovation is likely to produce a negative impact on consumption among younger and middle-aged households.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the MPC literature by incorporating energy efficiency as a key variable. It draws from recent data to obtain new estimates. By highlighting shifts in consumption patterns the paper contributes to a well-established body of literature with renewed policy relevance regarding housing retrofit.

Evolutionary behavior of thermal and optical properties of fluoride fiberglass with Er3+ doping

AbstractEr3+‐doped fluoride glass and fiber have been widely used in multiple fields such as mid‐infrared laser, visible laser, and amplifier. However, there is no unified conclusion on the thermal and optical properties with respect to varying concentrations of Er3+ doping. Furthermore, this is a paucity of systematic guidance on the preparation of Er3+‐doped fluoride glass and fiber. In this study, fluorozirconate fiberglass with Er3+ doping is systematically examined. Additionally, a preliminary explanation of the evolutionary behavior of glass devitrification, thermal properties, and fluorescence properties is provided. Energy transition models were built for 1.5 and 2.7 µm emissions in Er3+‐doped fluorozirconate at room temperature. Moreover, a suitable doping concentration is proposed based on the evolutionary behavior of thermal and optical properties. In this study, guidance on appropriate Er3+ doping concentration levels in fluorozirconate glass is provided and potential applications are explored.

A Data-Driven Approach for Generalizing the Laminar Kinetic Energy Model for Separation and Bypass Transition in Low- and High-Pressure Turbines

Abstract No common laminar kinetic energy (LKE) transition model has to date been able to predict both separation-induced and bypass transition, both phenomena commonly found in low-pressure turbines and high-pressure turbines. Here, a data-driven approach is adopted to develop a more general LKE transition model suitable for both transition modes. To achieve this, two strategies are adopted. The first is to extend the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-driven model training framework for simultaneously training models on multiple turbine cases, subject to multiple objectives. By increasing the training data set, different transition modes can be considered. The second strategy employed is the use of a newly derived set of local non-dimensionalized variables as training inputs to reduce the search space. Because one of the training turbine cases is characterized by strong unsteady effects, for the first time an unsteady solver is utilized during the CFD-driven training, and the time-averaged results are used to calculate the cost function as part of the model development process. The results show that the data-driven models do perform better, in terms of their predictions of pressure coefficient, wall shear stress, and wake losses, than the baseline model. The models were then tested on two previously unseen testing cases, one at a higher Reynolds number and one with a different geometry. For both testing cases, stable solutions were obtained with results improved over the predictions using the baseline models.

Critical mineral demands may limit scaling of green hydrogen production

Hydrogen (H2) is widely viewed as critical to the decarbonization of industry and transportation. Water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity, commonly referred to as green H2, can be used to generate H2 with low carbon dioxide emissions. Herein, we analyze the critical mineral and energy demands associated with green H2 production under three different hypothetical future demand scenarios, ranging from 100–1,000 Mtpa H2. For each scenario, we calculate the critical mineral demands required to build water electrolyzers (i.e., electrodes and electrolyte) and to build dedicated or additional renewable electricity sources (i.e., wind and solar) to power the electrolyzers. Our analysis shows that scaling electrolyzer and renewable energy technologies that use platinum group metals and rare earth elements will likely face supply constraints. Specifically, larger quantities of lanthanum, yttrium, or iridium will be needed to increase electrolyzer capacity and even more neodymium, silicon, zinc, molybdenum, aluminum, and copper will be needed to build dedicated renewable electricity sources. We find that scaling green H2 production to meet projected net-zero targets will require ∼24,000 TWh of dedicated renewable energy generation, which is roughly the total amount of solar and wind projected to be on the grid in 2050 according to some energy transition models. In summary, critical mineral constraints may hinder the scaling of green H2 to meet global net-zero emissions targets, motivating the need for the research and development of alternative, low-emission methods of generating H2.

Factor proportions model for Russian mineral supply-driven global energy transition: Does externality matter?

The Factor Proportions Model posits that international trade is contingent upon the relative abundance of factors of production, namely natural resources, capital, and labor. Countries endowed with mineral resources are inclined to export them to countries with higher demand but lower supply. However, geopolitical events disrupt the smooth transition of mineral-consuming economies towards sustainable renewable energy production. This study aims to investigate the interplay between Russian mineral exports and renewable energy generation, taking into account geopolitical risks, within both the global and Chinese contexts. The study covers monthly data from January 2011 to December 2021. Utilizing the cross-quantilogram approach, this study reveals a positive spillover effect of Russian mineral exports on global and Chinese renewable electricity production, across various time frames, including monthly, quarterly, bi-annual, and annual memories. Additionally, labor force's contribution plays a pivotal role in facilitating renewable energy production for both the global and Chinese contexts. Notably, externality factor, particularly geopolitical risks, exert a detrimental spillover effect on renewable energy generation for both the globe and China, although China's geopolitical risk events appear to be beneficial for its own renewable energy production in bullish and bearish states, across all memories. Russian geopolitical risks evince heterogeneous spillover effects on global renewable energy generation. To bolster the robustness of the findings obtained from the CQ approach, this study employs the partial cross-quantilogram (PCQ) approach. This research recommends the imperative of ensuring a secure supply of critical minerals and expediting the global energy revolution, while effectively mitigating geopolitical hazards, with the overarching goal of achieving a trajectory towards net-zero emissions.

Whose just energy transition? A South African perspective

AbstractSouth Africa's energy transition is underway and the country has adopted a just transition framework for its execution. However, the energy transition in South Africa is confronted by a multitude of socioeconomic challenges. This perspective focuses on urgent issues regarding South Africa's energy transition. The author argues that South Africa's energy transition needs a people‐centered approach; it must place the needs of all citizens at the forefront and leave no‐one behind. The transition must bring to the fore a new economic development pathway that is driven by renewable energy to create new sectors for economic growth, to create decent work, to reduce persisting energy inequalities and to address the ongoing energy crisis. Furthermore, developed economies will be essential in assisting South Africa with a financing deal for its energy transition. It remains to be seen whether the financing deal will indeed be realized. Also, there must be transparency between partners regarding the nature and structure of these deals, and that this finance be channeled to the most vulnerable victims of climate change. South Africa's energy transition model is the first of its kind globally; the world is watching keenly to see whether the country can succeed. Therefore, the challenge remains for South Africa to ensure that the energy transition addresses the country's socioeconomic challenges and prioritizes its people.This article is categorized under: Policy and Economics > Energy Transitions

Designing a zero-order energy transition model: How to create a new Starter Data Kit

The Paris Agreement was signed by 192 Parties, who committed to reducing emissions. Reaching such commitments by developing national decarbonisation strategies requires significant analyses and investment. Analyses for such strategies are often delayed due to a lack of accurate and up-to-date data for creating energy transition models. The Starter Data Kits address this issue by providing open-source, zero-level country datasets to accelerate the energy planning process. There is a strong demand for replicating the process of creating Starter Data Kits because they are currently only available for 69 countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Using an African country as an example, this paper presents the methodology to create a Starter Data Kit made of tool-agnostic data repositories and OSeMOSYS-specific data files. The paper illustrates the steps involved, provides additional information for conducting similar work in Asia and South America, and highlights the limitations of the current version of the Starter Data Kits. Future development is proposed to expand the datasets, including new and more accurate data and new energy sectors. Therefore, this document provides instructions on the steps and materials required to develop a Starter Data Kit.•The methodology presented here is intended to encourage practitioners to apply it to new countries and expand the current Starter Data Kits library.•It is a novel process that creates data pipelines that feed into a single Data Collection and Manipulation Tool (DaCoMaTool).•It allows for tool-agnostic data creation in a consistent format ready for a modelling analysis using one of the available tools.

A Community Engagement Model for an Inclusive Just Energy Transition in the South

Within a dynamic global political arena, the economic ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy impoverishment, ever-increasing global awareness of climate change, energy justice and just energy transition have emerged as important aspects that require critical reflexive deliberation to ensure that those on the margins of the energy divide do not pay the price for such a transition. Existing models to ensure energy justice were described as failing to consider stakeholder perspectives and needs. It was therefore proposed that such models be inclusive and reflective of diverse stakeholders, including local households, communities, utilities and governments. To this end, the University of South Africa’s Institute for Social and Health Sciences has developed a Transformational Model of community engagement in collaboration with communities which can be applied to articulate and guide the community engagement processes in an inclusive just energy transition. In this article, I present the model which offers opportunities to integrate multiple perspectives, prioritise the needs of diverse community stakeholders, interrogate power imbalances, and enhance working collaborations and partnerships, while also facilitating ongoing oversight and sustainable programme implementation. This model is a viable framework to achieve energy justice through an inclusive equitable transition to renewable energy technologies and by extension to reduce energy poverty. It has been applied in diverse community contexts across two provinces (Gauteng and the Western Cape) to engage with and build lasting community–institutional relationships. It has also been used to design, develop and evaluate contextually applicable sustainable initiatives, including a community-wide campaign.

Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios

The potential for using findings from socio-technical energy transition (STET) models in integrated assessment models (IAMs) has been proposed by several authors. A STET simulation model called TEMPEST, which includes the influence of societal and political factors in the UK’s energy transition, is used to model three of the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at the national level. The SSP narratives are interpreted as inputs to TEMPEST, which drive scenario simulations to reflect varying societal preferences for mitigation measures, the level of political support for energy transition, and future economic and population trends. SSP1 and SSP2 come close to meeting UK net zero targets in 2050 but SSP5 does not reach net zero before 2080. An estimate of the total societal, political, and economic cost of scenarios indicates that while SSP1 achieves the best emissions reductions it also has the highest total cost, and SSP2 achieves the best ratio between rate of emissions reductions and total cost. Feasibility appears to be highest for SSP2 since it is the least different to historical precedent. Current UK government energy strategy is closer to the narrative in SSP5, however, which has the highest total cost and exceeds an estimated carbon budget by 32%. Three key TEMPEST findings are recommended for use in IAMs: (i) the uncertainty in emissions savings due to variability in political and societal support for energy transition, (ii) the influence of negative societal pushback to policies in achievement of expected policy outcomes, and (iii) the combined influence on energy service demand of disposable income, public willingness to participate, and user impacts from measures.

The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate

AbstractTo stabilize the climate, we need to urgently decarbonize our society and remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Ambitions for the transformation are ultimately limited by bio‐physical constraints, which cannot be transgressed even if all economic and societal obstacles could be overcome. Even though it is essential to know what transformation pathways are still feasible, there is a lack of studies and models exploring bio‐physical frontiers for climate action. In this paper, we take a first step to explore the energy frontier by introducing the “3‐machines energy transition model.” This simplified representation of the global energy system includes energy feedbacks and is constrained by the maximum renewable energy potential. Simulation experiments with the model show that with most ambitious actions global peak heating may exceed 1.5°C with a chance of 14%. Simultaneously, it is still energetically possible to return to 350 ppm this century, which is considered to be a safe level for atmospheric CO2 concentration. While these energy‐constrained transformation pathways show that the climate can still be stabilized with a fair chance, they also illustrate the urgency and far‐reaching change required in society.

Финансовые и экономические условия энергоперехода для национальной экономики

This study reveals the financial conditions and drivers of the energy transition in the world and in Russia. The purpose of the study is to characterize the essence, content and financial conditions of the energy transition for the national economy. The objectives of the article are to study the features of the energy transition models for developed and developing countries; to consider the impact of "sustainable financing" on the energy transition process; to identify the specific financial conditions and risks. It was found that two major concepts of the energy transition have been formed, reflecting the vision of the goals and timing of completion, conditions and financing formats. The analysis of global investments in the energy transition showed high investors’ optimism: the renewable energy sector is the most attractive; the Asia-Pacific region has become the largest region in terms of investment volume; more energy transition financing programs are implemented in the European Union. The author reveals relationship between policies to achieve carbon neutrality and the phenomenon of "sustainable financing" subject to the principles of ESG, which was expressed in the refusal of the world's leading financial institutions to finance any fossil fuel projects, which could lead to higher demands and direct pressure on the energy and oil and gas sector in developing countries. The main financial risks and financial losses that the Russian economy may face in process of energy transition are outlined. Russia, as the largest exporter of hydrocarbons, will have to adapt to the new conditions despite the unprecedented sanctions pressure on the financial system and the withdrawal of major investors from the oil and gas and electric power sectors. First of all, this is cooperation in the BRICS format — both in the energy and in the financing of infrastructure projects, including within the framework of the BRICS New Development Bank activities. State loans, subsidies, grants, tax incentives, etc. may be used as financial measures of state support for the energy transition.

Network of Games: An Ecology of Games Informing Integral and Inclusive City Developments

This article analyzes possibilities for connecting individual city games for building a network of games working together. City gaming works along with the understanding that cities are self-organizing systems, influenced by multiple bottom-up and top-down actors with varying interests and powers. Affordable housing, climate adaptation, or area development are examples of urgent urban challenges city games typically focus on. The assumption is that if these specialized games could be linked, then a large game infrastructure built as a modular system, can offer various game combinations responding to urban challenges in an integral and holistic way. To test a working game network, city games, models, and digital apps have been linked through their shared datasets as well as game interfaces. Two city experiments have been conducted in two Dutch cities—Amsterdam and Breda—which enabled the testing to function as “constructive design research.” In Amsterdam (Klimaatspel) two separate city games were connected through their datasets, while in Breda (Play the Koepel) datasets and interfaces merged to create a new game. Used data models are the Energy Transition Model developed by Quintel and the urban plan cost simulator software of Urban Reality. Used game interfaces (digital and analog) include the Typeform, the Network of Games app, the Urban Reality simulator, and the Play the City table-top game format. The testing considered two different approaches for a potential game network. The first option assumes an all-encompassing digital app, reformatting and involving various games and models in a single interface. The second option is an open approach that looks to link custom-made games with existing interfaces. The second option allows both simultaneous and sequential linking. Two experiments utilizing sequential and simultaneous integration of diverse digital tools suggest that a collection of interfaces connecting to each other throughout the entire process from a digital poll to an app, a simulator or a webinar, or analog game sessions is more effective than a single mobile phone app for all potential game interactions. Considering city games as an ecology of city tools that can be linked to one another becomes through this study a concrete goal to reach. Through combining specialized games, addressing complex city challenges becomes possible. This step enables a more effective participation environment for diverse experts and non-experts.

Guest Editorial: Will the Ukraine War Derail Europe’s Energy Transition?

As Europe struggles to balance energy security and energy independence following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, uncertainty looms. By turning its back on Russian oil and gas, will Europe speed up or slow down its energy transition, and what will be the impact on the global climate change crisis? These are complicated questions that require a whole-system view and depend on the extent and duration of the war. Energy Security European policymakers are determined to slash the EU’s Russian gas dependence by two-thirds this year—a tall order. The replacement will be painful and costly, with increased LNG imports taking center stage. Energy security ambition hinges on additional policies such as the International Energy Agency’s 10-point plan recommendations. Beyond nudging consumer behavior toward lower energy use, there is scope for a concerted policy push for energy efficiency, a postponement of nuclear retirements, and extensive renewable energy buildout. Nonfossil supply and energy efficiency will accelerate; however, counterforces are at work: burning more coal to replace natural gas; and the increasing cost of electric vehicle (EV) batteries and solar photovoltaic (PV) panels through higher commodity prices. To this extent, the push for energy security works against the transition. Modeling the Transition DNV’s system dynamics energy transition model provides insight on how economics, technologies, sectors, geographies, and policies influence one another. The model assessed how the changes seen since 24 February 2022 could influence Europe’s energy transition. Significant uncertainties fall from the war’s duration, possible escalation, and whether strengthened countermeasures completely stop the export of Russian oil and gas to the continent. Europe’s Fit for 55 climate plan commitment will likely endure, though public reaction to energy affordability may challenge its momentum in the short term and other imponderables remain: Will a new cold war emerge or a calmer détente result? With these in mind, we modeled a scenario where Europe’s energy system discontinues Russian gas imports, with zero Russian gas from 2025 onward.

Towards a Sustainable Society

Abstract In this article I address three main crises of the Anthropocene: energy and climate, biodiversity and food, and peace and security. To obtain overall sustainability, natural scientists and engineers have developed the Energy Transition Model, the Carbon Transition Model, and the Agri-food-nature Transition Model. From these models two facts stand out. The age of fossil fuels and of livestock farming will come to an end. Because a sustainable society also has sociopolitical and legal, socioeconomic and financial, sociocultural and welfare, and socioenvironmental and ecological aspects, the contribution of human scientists to overall sustainability is also crucial.

The application of blockchain technology in smart sustainable energy business model

Blockchain technology is considered to be a disruptive technology that has real potential for change after steam engines, electricity, and the Internet. However, in terms of power generation, the current level of hydropower development in my country is only 39%. Compared with developed countries, there is still a big gap and a high development space. This article proposes a research on the application of blockchain technology in smart sustainable energy business models, studies the conversion path of sustainable energy systems, introduces integrated energy service blockchain technology, and builds a sustainable energy transition model. The selection of practical dimensions requires both Quantitative indicators also require cultural and behavioral qualitative indicators; finally, through the analysis of social development trends and government policies, the external variable landscape signals are parameterized. Sustainable energy rather than fossil energy is the energy of the future. Weak landscape signals have significantly weakened the development of the sustainable energy niche: the proportion of coal consumption has declined slowly. Although it has transformed from a system to a niche, it has always been higher than that of other energy types. Only with long-term landscape pressure, positive changes to sustainable energy technologies and infrastructure, and continuous changes in consumer preferences, can sustainable energy ultimately dominate.

Integrated spatial and energy planning in Styria – A role model for local and regional energy transition and climate protection policies

• Programme to integrate spatial planning and energy planning. • Creating strategic database for energy transition in spatial planning. • Applying strategic maps to harmonize district heating, mobility and spatial development. • Applying energy transition thinking for sustainable spatial planning. • Holistic implementation programme for scientific knowledge in local spatial planning. How we plan our towns, cities and regions is inseparably connected to energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the way how we can manage the transition to sustainable renewable energy systems. Therefore, we propose that integrated spatial and energy planning is an important part of energy transition and climate protection strategies. In this article, we discuss how the energy transition and spatial planning can be holistically integrated, and how this theoretical framework combining the factual findings of integrated spatial and energy planning and strategic concepts of spatial planning can be put into practice in municipal spatial planning. We demonstrate the applicability of the approach in an action research process in the Austrian Province of Styria involving the Government representatives, municipalities and spatial planners. The whole approach includes, as tangible outputs a strategic database, strategic maps, and a planning guidance for municipalities on the one hand, and a further education programme for planners and municipal decision makers on the other hand. Finally, the applicability, transferability and limitations of the approach are discussed. As the approach is not only established in Styria, but at the moment also put forward in two further Provinces so that we can, in total, cover about 63% of all Austrian municipalities with this approach, we also propose that this approach can serve as a role model not only for local and regional energy transition and climate protection policies around the world, but also for shaping third mission activities of universities.

Comparative analysis on similarities and differences of hydrogen energy development in the World's top 4 largest economies: A novel framework

A low-carbon energy transition is permeating many industrialized countries due to the overuse of fossil fuels and the climate change. Some countries stress the hydrogen energy in optimizing their energy structures. This article examines both the markets and the policies of the hydrogen industry in the World's Top 4 largest economies. To make the comparative analysis more logical, a novel conceptual model for energy transition -- the institution-economics-technology-behavior framework -- has been adopted to make a multi-dimensional discussion. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of strategic intention, developing hydrogen energy is conductive to the energy transition. (2) From the horizontal comparison, each country has its own advantages, however, the main driving factors are different. (3) From the vertical comparison, the hydrogen energy development in each country is still in the stage of quantitative change, and the inflection point of qualitative change has not been reached yet. • A novel conceptual model -- IETB framework -- is adopted. • Hydrogen energy serves three functions in the energy transition. • The World's Top 4 largest economies are used for comparative analysis. • Each country has different advantages of developing its own hydrogen energy. • Qualitative inflection point of hydrogen energy development has not yet reached.

Local energy transition in Russia: a multi-actor perspective on the case of Yakutia

ABSTRACT Research on energy transitions calls for exploring the subnational tendencies in energy governance. This study unpacks how transitioning to sustainable energy unfolds at the local level in Russia, a state with a fossil-dominated and centralized energy regime. Drawing upon the case study of Yakutia, I clarify the role of local authorities and non-state actors in local energy transitions in a hybrid regime. In order to uncover the dynamics of power relations as forces affecting the local energy transition in Yakutia, I develop an approach that combines the multi-actor perspective on socio-technical transition with theories of network governance in hybrid regimes. Through qualitative empirical research, I identify four distinct local energy transition models, showing how energy transition projects are initiated and executed through state-run local governance networks. I then demonstrate how the overarching energy political regime frames the playing field and has a decisive influence on the (dis)empowerment of local actors.

The differential analysis for temperature distribution diagnostics of arc current-carrying region in sheet slanting tungsten electrode inert gas welding with the electrostatic probe

Abstract An electrostatic probe differential analysis method is used to diagnose the arc current-carrying region of the sheet slanting tungsten electrode. Based on the local thermal equilibrium condition and energy transition model with charged particles collision, the temperature distribution in the current-carrying region of different welding process parameters is solved by saturated ion current. The results show that the temperature distribution range in the width direction of sheet slanting tungsten electrode expands, the arc high-temperature region shifts integrally, and the temperature in the thickness direction of sheet slanting tungsten electrode would be symmetrical. The guide effect of the hypotenuse of sheet slanting tungsten electrode for arc current and the inertia drag effect of arc would mainly change the temperature distribution. The variation of the inclination angle of the hypotenuse of sheet slanting tungsten electrode will aggravate the shift of the arc high-temperature region. The larger inclination angle will enhance the guiding effect, and then the inertia drag effect would be in a dominant position with a smaller inclination angle. With the increase of welding current, both the arc stiffness and the guiding effect would be intensified, the latter should make the arc high-temperature zone shift to the position with a small discharge gap.