Energy Sector In Poland Research Articles

Profitability of Energy Sector Companies in Poland: Do Internal Factors Matter?

The aim of this article is to examine which selected internal factors influence the profitability (ROA) of companies in the energy sector in Poland and how they do so, over the period 2018–2021, taking into account two groups: all types of activities (984 companies) and electricity production (508 companies). This study uses Pearson correlation analysis, Wilcoxon pairwise rank test, descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression to build eight ROA econometric models, four for each group. The research shows that in the energy sector, in particular, variables relating to the capital structure (total equity/total assets, long-term liabilities/total assets, short-term liabilities/total assets and long-term liabilities/short-term liabilities ratios) have a statistically significant impact (positive or negative) on the profitability (ROA). The aforementioned ratios appear in various combinations in all eight ROA models. The use of equity to finance the activities of companies in this sector seems to be particularly beneficial, as the total equity/total assets ratio occurs in as many as seven out of eight models and, moreover, it always has a positive impact on the ROA. The remaining analyzed variables relating to the structure of assets (fixed assets/total assets ratio), financial liquidity (current ratio) and the age of the company appear in the models as statistically significant quite rarely, having a different impact on the ROA (positively or negatively). However, variables such as the fixed assets/current assets and total liabilities/total equity ratios do not have a statistically significant impact on the ROA at all in any of the studied groups of enterprises. The research results suggest that managers, in order to shape profitability (measured by ROA), should pay special attention to the capital structure, i.e., the proportions of the use of equity, long-term liabilities and short-term liabilities to finance the operations of energy companies as these independent variables appear most often in ROA models. Other analyzed factors, such as the assets structure (the share of fixed assets in total assets) or financial liquidity, also have an impact on the return on assets; therefore, their use in energy companies should also be considered. Moreover, the research shows a large diversity of factors shaping ROA in econometric models, the way they affect the dependent variable (positive or negative) and the degree of model fit (R2), both in individual years and in the two groups of companies studied. This proves that it is not possible to clearly and finally determine which factors and how (positive or negative) they affect the profitability. This influence can change over time depending on the circumstances, which indicates the need for the continuous involvement of decision makers in the management process and making decisions based on reliable and appropriate-to-the-situation analyses.

Less power when more is needed. Climate-related current and possible future problems of the wind energy sector in Poland.

Heat waves, combined with an increasing share of weather-dependent renewable energy sources, lead to disruptions in the operation of energy systems. This paper estimates how energy consumption in Poland changed during four heat waves (2010-2022). It also analyzes how often wind conditions may occur in the summer, that interrupt energy production by land-based wind farms. Moreover, authors are looking at future changes of climate indices responsible for increased energy consumption and possible reduction of energy production in wind farms. During the 2010 heatwave, the increase in energy consumption during the hottest days did not exceed 4%. Later summer demand increased; in 2019, it was 8% higher than during the 2015 heatwave. In 2016-2022, energy consumption at the average daily air temperature above 26°C was over 8% higher on working days than at 18°C. Recently, even in regions with favorable wind conditions, the number of summer days with low wind speed (2 ms-1) exceeds 14. For Poland, the number of days with low wind speeds will increase by about ten. Therefore, the increasing demand for energy on hot days, combined with their more frequent occurrence, may have a negative impact on the stability of the energy system in the future.

What Contributes to the Greening of the Polish Energy Industry? Pro-Environmental Inclusive Leadership and Pro-Environmental Behavior—A Moderation–Mediation Analysis

The functioning of the energy sector in Poland has been changing over recent years, influenced by growing concern for the environment. The concept of inclusive leadership can play a key role in the emergence of behavioral changes related to the development of environmental awareness and the initiation of pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors by employees. The guiding objective of this study is to verify a moderated mediation model of the impact of pro-environmental consciousness (PEC) on the mediating role of the fulfillment of the psychological contract for the environment (PCFE) in pro-environmental inclusive leadership (PEIL) and pro-environmental work behavior (PEWB) relationships in the energy industry. By self-completing a survey questionnaire using the computer-assisted web interview (CAWI) method, responses were collected from 649 respondents employed in various energy industry organizations. Structural equation modelling based on maximum likelihood with bootstrap estimation was used to test the hypothesis model. The findings confirm the assumptions of the research model, demonstrating a direct relationship between pro-environmental inclusive leadership and pro-environmental work behavior. Additionally, a mediating condition was found, where the fulfillment of the psychological contract for the environment mediates the relationship between pro-environmental inclusive leadership and pro-environmental work behavior, and pro-environmental consciousness moderates this process. It was found that higher pro-environmental consciousness enhances the indirect effect of pro-environmental inclusive leadership on employees’ pro-environmental work behavior through the fulfillment of the psychological contract for the environment. This highlights the importance of the fulfillment of the psychological contract for the environment and a pro-environmental consciousness in the effectiveness of pro-environmental leadership. The analysis indicates that managers who apply a pro-environmental inclusive management style contribute to an increasingly pro-environmental consciousness and the promotion pro-environmental work behavior among employees. Furthermore, the indirect effect of green leadership on employees’ green actions, through the fulfillment of a psychological contract for the environment that is moderated by their pro-environmental consciousness, highlights the importance of environmentally conscious leaders in building effective employee–employer relationships. These relationships facilitate the implementation of initiatives that accelerate the pace of change and enhance efforts to build tomorrow’s modern energy industry based on low- and zero-carbon energy sources. Additionally, this is one of the first studies in the Polish energy industry to provide insight into the role and importance of green leadership and green behavior in the energy industry.

Overview of social attitudes and applications towards the use of crowdfunding in renewable energy

Background: Crowdfunding has become a popular method for raising funds for various projects, including those related to renewable energy sources. Research objectives: This paper aims to present crowdfunding and the social attitudes of the Poles towards its use in renewable energy sources. Research design and methods: The first section discusses the theoretical assumptions of crowdfunding and presents the possibilities of using this form of financing in the renewable energy sector in Poland and worldwide. The second section of the paper is devoted to presenting the results of my research on the attitudes of Polish society towards renewable energy sources and the use of crowdfunding in the energy transition in Poland and worldwide. The paper uses literature analysis, criticism, comparative analysis, desk research, and a survey method. Results: Crowdfunding is used extensively in various projects in the area of renewable energy sources. There is social support for this type of activity (especially in the age groups 18–29 and 30–44 years) and a growing awareness and openness to support initiatives in the area of renewable energy sources. Conclusions: Based on the analysis, it was concluded that crowdfunding allows local actors to optimize their share of the economic benefits of solar energy projects, including solar energy, and to participate in the energy transition at the same time.

Polish Concession Fee on Offshore Wind Farms: A Quasi-Tax Hidden in the Energy Law

The production of electricity using offshore wind farms is at a preparatory stage in Poland. However, it has the opportunity to become the most dynamically-developing segment of the power industry, especially considering ambitious targets for reducing CO2 emissions. The development of the renewable energy sector in Poland has major real estate tax context when one takes into account that RET paid for the infrastructure projects constitutes an important source of tax revenue for the local communities. The taxation of wind farms is a well-recognised issue, but jurisprudence developed in this area cannot help in solving the problem of the taxation of the offshore wind farms. A legal loophole in the Polish RET provisions made it impossible to tax the offshore constructions. In order to capture the tax from offshore wind farms, the Polish legislator introduced a special concession fee, whose amount is approx. equal to the hypothetical RET to be paid from the wind farm if it was located onshore. The purpose of the article is to present the doubts regarding the offshore concession fee from the perspective of Polish constitutional standards as well as the Polish tax system consistency.

Fostering three types of green behavior through green HRM in the energy sector: the conditional role of environmental managerial support

PurposeDrawing on the social exchange theory (SET) and the self-determination theory (SDT), the present study aims to examine the impact of green human resource management (GHRM) on three types of employee green behavior (EGB) – green in-role, innovative and extra-role – in the presence of environmental managerial support (EMS) as a conditional factor.Design/methodology/approachThe research model was verified based on data from 419 respondents employed in companies operating in the energy sector in Poland (Europe’s “coal heartland”). PLS-SEM was used in the statistical analyses.FindingsThis study shows that GHRM positively impacts three types of EGB. EMS positively moderates the relationships of GHRM with both green extra-role behaviors and innovative work behaviors; however, EMS does not play a moderating role in the relationship between GHRM and green in-role behaviors.Originality/valueThis study, being one of a kind, enriches the literature by exploring the conditional role of EMS on the integrated relationship of GHRM practices with in-role, extra-role and innovative behaviors and offers evidence from the rarely examined energy sector, which plays a vital role in the transformation of nations toward sustainable development.

Structural and Investment Funds of the European Union as an Instrument for Creating a Low-Carbon Economy by Selected Companies of the Energy Sector in Poland

The main objective of this research is to identify the scope of the use of EU funds for the formation of a low-carbon economy by enterprises providing energy services in Poland in 2014–2020. As a result of the identification, a model for the use of EU funds based on the following criteria was identified: the purpose of the investment, the type of fund, the type of support program, the range of support values and the form and level of funding. As a research gap has been identified due to the insufficient investigation of the use of EU funds by the largest energy companies in Poland to shape a low-carbon economy, the findings presented are novel and contribute to a better understanding of the use of EU funds by Poland’s largest energy sector companies. Data on investment projects financed by EU funds were obtained from the database of the Ministry of Funds and Regional Policy for 2014–2020, while the characteristics of the companies were obtained from industry reports, the National Court Register and the Central Statistical Office. The results showed that EU funds were important in the financing of investments by the largest energy companies to decarbonize the economy. The analysis showed that the surveyed companies were pursuing the goals of Directive 2012/27/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council for energy efficiency, primarily concerning a low-carbon economy. Most EU aid funds were used for infrastructure investments, including those related to renewable energy sources. Little use has been made of EU funds for innovation and public awareness.

The Business Model in Energy Sector Reporting—A Case Study from Poland: A Pilot Study

The business model is understood as a way of generating revenue and creating value. This article aimed to define the framework and detailed characteristics of the business model in corporate reporting in the energy sector. The study also addressed the issue of value creation and examined the correlation between reporting information about the business model and the value of the enterprise, calculated using selected accounting measures. The research was conducted in 2021 on all listed companies in the energy sector included in the WIG20 index in 2019–2020. The research methodologies included critical analysis of the literature, analysis of the content of corporate publications, comparative analysis, analysis of phenomena and synthesis of results, Spearman’s rank correlations, and graphical data presentation. The originality of our research concerns directing attention to the disclosure and reporting of information about the business model in corporate reports in the energy sector in Poland. This is the first such study in Poland conducted on companies in the energy sector; therefore, it is treated by the authors as a pilot study. The results show that companies in the energy sector included in the WIG20 index do not disclose information about their business models in reports and the structure of published reports is very diverse, which makes it even more difficult to compare financial and non-financial data. Enterprises in the energy sector disclose financial and non-financial information in financial statements and the reports of the management board on the activities of the company and the capital group. The financial information disclosed by the companies most often included financial and productive capital. Energy companies are reluctant to disclose information about by-products and waste.

Financial and Economic Stability of Energy Sector Enterprises as a Condition for Poland’s Energy Security—Legal and Economic Aspects

The energy security of each country is one of the main factors of its proper functioning. Currently, in the era of problems related to energy security resulting from, among other things, the war in Ukraine, this topic is particularly important. This article presents issues related to Poland’s energy security, understood as the financial and economic stability of enterprises operating in the energy industry. This stability is considered in two aspects: macroeconomic, where the focus is mainly on the aspect of state intervention in market processes; and microeconomic, where factors determining the financial security of energy enterprises were identified, including internal and external factors affecting the functioning of these entities. In order to achieve the assumed research goals, the analysis of the indicated problems was based on non-reactive research, consisting in the assessment of the available information. It included studies of normative acts, official statistical data, industry reports and analyses, as well as data obtained in the form of a public information request. Two basic research methods were used in the work—dogmatic–legal and comparative analyses. The identification of factors affecting the security of companies in the sector was carried out on the basis of data on the entire energy sector in Poland for the years 2015–2021 on a semi-annual basis. Vector-autoregressive models were used for the analysis. As a result of the analyses, it was established that market failures and public safety are the premises justifying the public financing of enterprises in the electricity generation, transmission, distribution and trade sectors. At the same time, the conducted research showed that the level of financial security of energy enterprises in Poland was affected by the ratio of the value of goods and materials sold to net sales revenue, as well as the level of EBIT (earnings before deducting interest and taxes) margin, and among external factors, the level of GDP (gross domestic product), CPI (consumer price index) and Crude Oil were important.

Determinants of Return-on-Equity (ROE) of Biogas Plants Operating in Poland

Poland has a large potential for biogas production from agricultural sources and food waste. This potential is still poorly used. There are many reasons for this state of affairs. We can indicate both the policy of the state towards renewable energy sources (RES) with a small amount of energy from biogas contracted at auctions, investment risk, and especially low return on investment in the absence of investment support. An important reason is also the limited state budget. The purpose of this work was to determine the endogenous factors that determine ROE, the direction of the impact of these factors, as well as the strategy of biogas plants in shaping the ROE level. The DuPont model was used in the analysis of ROE changes. We used the deviation method to determine the impact of the various factors on ROE. Against the background of the energy sector in Poland, the value of ROE in the examined biogas plants should be considered satisfactory, and in 2020 it was, on average, 13.9%. The decrease from 17.2% in 2019 occurred despite the increase in energy prices and the increase in the net profit margin (NPM). It resulted from the reduction of ROE’s financial leverage through external capital. A high level of debt characterized the examined biogas plants, and the pursuit of risk reduction and debt reduction negatively impacts on ROE. This may indicate the need for state investment support at the plant construction stage or low-interest investment loans to develop biogas plants. In addition, using only price guarantees under the feed-in tariffs, with dynamic changes in costs, may bring the industry a relatively high investment risk compared to other RES, where the operational costs during the lifetime are low, as it is in PV or wind systems.

Assessment of Financial Security of SMEs Operating in the Renewable Energy Industry during COVID-19 Pandemic

Today, one of the main priorities in Europe is to introduce measures to increase environmental protection. Therefore, SMEs operating in the branch related to renewable energy are essential for several EU priorities. SMEs can also be vulnerable, especially during times of crisis, which could negatively affect renewable energy development. Therefore, this paper aims to evaluate and analyze the financial security management of renewable energy SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research is conducted on SMEs operating in the renewable energy sector in Poland. The research periods are 2019 (before the COVID-19 crisis) and 2020 (during the crisis). By analyzing different financial performance ratios, we found that SMEs operating in the energy sector have been able to stabilize and maintain their current economic position compared to the past. The results of this study indicate that the receivables collection period, cash conversion cycle, and operating cycle could have been insignificantly shorter during the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, to have stronger financial security, SMEs have adopted a conservative policy in which the share of accounts receivable in current assets has been significantly reduced during COVID-19. In contrast, an insignificant increase in liquidity, quick ratios, and inventory turnover have been observed. In general, Polish SMEs have chosen to adopt conservative strategies during COVID-19 to have better liquidity security.

Employment and Competencies of Employees in the Energy Sector in Poland

Employment and the competencies of employees in the energy sector are coming into particular prominence in economies around the world. It is one of the few sectors positively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, a significant global change in the awareness of society occurred in favor of increasing pro-health and pro-environmental activities, which can be seen in the green transformation. Poland can also boast such changes in recent years, as evidenced by the dynamic development of renewable energy sources (boom for photovoltaics) and the increase in prosumption. Correlated with this is the increase in demand for employees with specific competencies, the so-called multi-competencies that are a compilation of technical, business, and soft and hard competencies, as well as interdisciplinary ones. The paper emphasizes the need to better adjust the education system to the real needs of the labor market in a turbulent environment with the use of the Sectoral Qualifications Framework in Energy, developed in cooperation with stakeholders from the industry. Therefore, the authors analyzed the employment structure in the energy sector in Poland, with particular emphasis on the factors and conditions of this structure and made an attempt to identify and create a competency profile of employees in this area. For the purposes of this article, two key research problems were formulated: What are the key competencies of employees in the energy sector? How is employment changing in this area? The following research hypothesis was also put forward: The transformation of the energy sector towards green energy affects the increase in employment in this area and the increase in the demand for soft competencies. The analysis was based on statistical data, reports, job advertisements, and a review of the results of empirical research to date.

The Trait of Extraversion as an Energy-Based Determinant of Entrepreneur’s Success—The Case of Poland

The fact that personality traits play an important role when it comes to predicting people’s entrepreneurial behavior is currently indisputable. However, so far, the majority of subject literature has focused on employee characteristics in developed countries. To address this gap, research was conducted, including 188 entrepreneurs of small and medium enterprises (SME) and 21 highest-level employees in Poland—one of the countries with the most hostile and turbulent environment for entrepreneurial operations in the world. The five personality traits (Big Five) were evaluated using the 60-item scale. There were three objectives of this study: to identify the differences between entrepreneurs and the most effective, highest-level employees, in the context of personality trait intensities, to determine the level of specific trait(s) intensities (OCEAN) of an effective entrepreneur. Finally, to determine whether it is possible to construct a model based on BIG5 to estimate the probability of success as an entrepreneur. The research results imply there are significant differences between successful entrepreneurs and highly effective employees and their personality trait intensities, described in the BIG5 model. Moreover, it is possible to distinguish trait intensity ranges, determining the success as an entrepreneur. Finally, we constructed the empirically based model, which allows us to estimate the chances of an individual succeeding as an entrepreneur with only a 5% error rate. The main factor and common denominator of entrepreneurial effectiveness is the trait of extraversion. The findings of our study are particularly important for the renewable energy sector in Poland, as the last part of green energy implementing blockchain (e.g., the installation and maintenance of wind turbines and solar panels) is being undertaken, in vast majority, by independent contractors and SME owners (entrepreneurs).

Safety and Work Organization Management in the Early Days of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Lignite Mining and Energy Sector in Poland

The paper presents the results of sociological qualitative research on safety management in work organization. The focus was on how to adapt the workforce to the sanitary regime during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in the lignite mining and energy sector in the Bełchatów poviat (Łódź voivodeship, Poland). The study aimed to identify the dimensions of safety and the work culture created in crisis conditions as perceived by workers. Based on the conducted analysis, the process of adapting employees to the new rules of work organization was reported, including the transition from fear and anxiety to control over threats and negative emotions. The essence of the research was to support institutional memory to consolidate the existing knowledge and use it in the future.

Analysis of the properties of weather regressors for econometric modelling: Example of weather stations in Poland

Many recent works indicate the existence of a significant relationship between weather factors such as pressure, humidity, windspeed, sum of falls or sunshine and rates of return for stocks quoted on stock exchange. A properly conducted econometric study requires a careful analysis of the properties of the factors that will be used in the econometric model to explain the development of the dependent variable. The aim of the research is to check if the weather factors could be used as econometric regressors by verifying their statistical propensities. The analysis was held on the weather stations located in eight cities in Poland: Poznan, Kolo, Plock, Warsaw, Wroclaw, Opole, Katowice and Rzeszow. These cities host registered offices of the biggest companies of the energy sector in Poland. The research methods were focused around basic statistics and normality tests of distributions of weather factors' (four types), as well as the autocorrelation of regressors.

Multi-Energy Concern as an Example of the Implementation of Agenda 2030: Poland as a Case Study

The motive for the functioning of enterprises in the market economy is the maximization of benefits by achieving positive financial results with the minimum possible involvement of capital. The positive results achieved are perceived very positively by the stakeholders. To achieve this, it is necessary to carry out reorganization processes (mergers and acquisitions) within capital groups, which are perceived as necessary (positive) measures. These phenomena have been observed in the energy sector for many years, and the years 2010–2021 were adopted as the research period. The aim of this article is to attempt to answer the question of whether the multi-energy concern is the result of activities carried out in light of the 2030 Agenda. The effect of merging the entities is capital concentration. This fact has been verified by reviewing changes in the structures of capital groups in the energy sector against the background of the largest mergers and acquisitions in Poland in terms of value. The theoretical part presents the differences in the terminology of mergers and acquisitions and the motives for their creation and operation, with an emphasis on energy groups. Therefore, the authors undertook research aimed at identifying and assessing the main premises and effects of capital concentration through mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector in Poland.

Drivers of Digitalization in the Energy Sector—The Managerial Perspective from the Catching Up Economy

This article attempts to identify the key forces driving the successful digitalization of the energy sector, ensuring improvements in the energy triangle including sustainability, stability, and economic performance. The article sheds light on the diverse energy priorities at supra-, national, and managerial levels, and the role of digitalization in achieving these objectives. Catching up economies (such as Poland), being post-socialist EU member states, in order to transform its energetic sector, must overcome a number of infrastructural and social shortcomings retained as a legacy of the socialist economy. As such, sustainability (as the core priority at EU energy agenda) may not be the leading objective at both national and company level in the energy sector transformation. This article presents the results of empirical research carried out through distribution of e-questionnaire addressed to Polish managers from the energy sector. The results were analyzed using the fsQCA method. The findings suggest that, for managers, the most important drivers of digitalization and transformation of the energy sector in Poland are its high economic performance, together with support for energy prosumers and consumers. The prerequisites for a successful digitalization are alternatively the absence of management barriers, or a combination of high economic performance and a strong focus on environmental protection. Surprisingly, according to managers surveyed, the rapid implementation of new technologies is not considered a vital condition for successful digital transformation of the energy sector, which implies either or managerial lack of knowledge in this area and/or a reluctance to introduce digital rapid technologies.

Regional planning of distributed energy

The Polish economy is facing a huge challenge regarding the future of the energy sector in Poland. The current energy system is very inefficient, absorbs huge resources that, like countries with high energy efficiency, could be spent on the development of low-emission networks and renewable energy sources. The coal-based system from several large centrally controlled power plants that distribute electricity throughout the country is very expensive and highly unreliable. The solution may be distributed energy, which can ultimately satisfy energy supplies in less urbanized areas and in rural areas, while ensuring the sustainable development of areas. Distributed energy spread across the economy is the main guarantor of market mechanisms of shaping energy security. The aim of the study is to build a mathematical model of distributed energy, as well as to propose to regional authorities the desired direction of energy policy development in the analyzed periods and to offer a model for creating energy policy in other local government units: poviats, communes. So far, few authors have dealt with this issue comprehensively. So far, there have been no detailed studies on the issues of distributed energy development and the use of mathematical methods in building an energy production model in local government units. The undertaken research contributes to the development of knowledge about distributed energy.

Digital transformation of energy sector enterprises in Poland. Rationale and practices

Purpose: With increasing digitalization, the debate on the direction of transformation in various sectors of the economy and their ability to keep up with the changes in this area is becoming increasingly complex. The energy industry is one of the key sectors in the economy, and as such it must follow trends and adapt to changing conditions. The aim of the paper is to diagnose and assess the level of progress in digital transformation among Polish energy sector enterprises. Design/methodology/approach: The research was conducted on a group of 110 entities, with a survey questionnaire. The gathered data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Findings: Although the level of employing Industry 4.0 tools in Polish energy sector enterprises is at a low level, managers recognize the importance of following the path toward digital transformation. The awareness of particular digital transformation prerequisites differs depending on the phase of the digital transformation process. Research limitations/implications: Among the limitations of the research procedure, issues such as the single respondent design and the exclusion of micro entities from the research should be noted. However, the exclusion of micro entities from the analysis was intentional, and this area deserves the attention of researchers. The specificity of the functioning and organization of the activity of micro enterprises may distort the image of the sector. Referring to the single respondent design, it was assumed that in this phase of the research it is reasonable to collect individual opinions specific to a given enterprise. It would be worth extending the analysis by conducting in-depth interviews or attempting more in-depth research at the level of individual entities. Originality/value: This article contributes to the knowledge of the energy sector in Poland in the context of Industry 4.0. Keywords: digital transformation, digital strategy, digital transformation strategy, prerequisites for digital transformation, energy sector companies.

Społeczna percepcja energetyki jądrowej w perspektywie procesów transformacji energetycznej w Polsce

The article analyzes the attitude of the Polish society to nuclear energy as an important energy source in the future and emphasizes the social dimension of the processes, by relating them to the sociology of energy. The attitude to nuclear energy is presented in comparison to other conventional and non-renewable energy sources, such as coal, oil or gas as well as renewable energy sources (RES) obtained from the sun, air or water. The ways of thinking and fears of the Polish society towards nuclear energy are presented in relation to the processes of energy transformation in Poland. The author indicates the main assumptions of the energy transformation and presents social ideas about the future of the energy sector in Poland. In the empirical dimension, the article concerns the sphere of social awareness and uses the results of surveys conducted by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) in the period from 1987 to 2021.