Energy Load Forecasting Research Articles

An advanced hybrid deep learning model for accurate energy load prediction in smart building

In smart cities, sustainable development depends on energy load prediction since it directs utilities in effectively planning, distributing and generating energy. This work presents a novel hybrid deep learning model including components of the Improved-convolutional neural network (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM), Graph neural network (GNN), Transformer and Fusion Layer architectures for precise energy load forecasting. Better feature extraction results from the Improved-CNN's dilated convolution and residual block accommodation of wide receptive fields reduced the vanishing gradient problem. By capturing temporal links in both directions, Bi-LSTM networks help to better grasp complicated energy use patterns. Graph neural networks improve predictive capacities across linked systems by characterizing the spatial relationships between energy-consuming units in smart cities. Emphasizing critical trends to guarantee reliable forecasts, transformer models use attention methods to manage long-term dependencies in energy consumption data. Combining CNN, Bi-LSTM, Transformer and GNN component predictions in a Fusion Layer synthesizes numerous data representations to increase accuracy. With Root Mean Square Error of 5.7532 Wh, Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 3.5001%, Mean Absolute Error of 6.7532 Wh and R2 of 0.9701, the hybrid model fared better than other models on the ‘Electric Power Consumption’ Kaggle dataset. This work develops a realistic model that helps informed decision-making and enhances energy efficiency techniques, promoting energy load forecasting in smart cities.

An intelligent model for efficient load forecasting and sustainable energy management in sustainable microgrids

Microgrids have emerged as a promising solution for enhancing energy sustainability and resilience in localized energy distribution systems. Efficient energy management and accurate load forecasting are one of the critical aspects for improving the operation of microgrids. Various approaches for energy prediction and load forecasting using statistical models are discussed in the literature. In this work, a novel energy management framework that incorporates machine learning (ML) techniques is presented for an accurate prediction of solar and wind energy generation. The anticipated approach also emphasizes time series-based load forecasting in microgrids with precise estimation of State of Charge (SoC) of battery. A unique feature of the proposed framework is that utilizes historical load data and employs time series analysis coupled with different ML models to forecast the load demand in a commercial microgrids scenario. In this work, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Linear Regression (LR) models are employed for an experimental analysis to study the proposed framework under three different cases, such as (i) prediction of energy generation, (ii) load demand forecasting and, (iii) prediction of SoC of battery. The results show that the Random Forest (RF) and LSTM models performs well for energy prediction and load forecasting respectively. On the other hand, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model exhibited superior accuracy in terms of SoC estimation. Further, in this work, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) is developed for evaluating the efficacy of the proposed energy management framework.

Emotion-Driven Energy Load Forecasting: An Ensemble Leveraging Insights from News

In modern times, system energy load forecasting is an extremely important process in a variety of contexts. Moreover, energy load time series fluctuations are influenced by a wide range of factors, ranging, inter alia, from environmental conditions, natural events, and demographics to both regional and global geopolitical contexts, economic conditions, energy sources, policies, and regulations. Given these, this paper examines the integration of news information from the global scene into Greek energy load forecasting schemes through the use of sentiment analysis. Investigating the ways the general emotional footprint of news worldwide affects and can be used in an energy modeling context, we benchmark possible ensemble configurations incorporating a multitude of 31 emotion polarities. Building on our previous work, an ensemble method that exploits specific outputs from a multi-label sentiment classifier and a sentiment analysis procedure under a multivariate forecasting scheme is presented. It is shown, through an empirical evaluation of the results, that the integration of emotion representations related to non-Greek news concerning global current affairs improves the predictions.

A transfer learning-based hybrid model with LightGBM for smart grid short-term energy load prediction

Efficient energy management is crucial given 2024's 4.1% worldwide electricity demand increase. This urgency emphasizes the necessity for various, sustainable energy sources in distribution grids. Short-term load prediction approaches using probabilistic power generation and energy storage are crucial for energy usage prediction. Urban energy planners use simulation, probability optimization and modelling to create sustainable energy systems. This study offers a novel hybrid model for smart grids: short-term energy load prediction using transfer learning (TL) and optimized lightGBM (OLGBM). Our two-phase solution tackles Short-term Load Forecasting complexities. First, aberrant supplements and quick deviation selection eliminate missing values and identify key features during data pre-processing. Second, TL-OLGBM learns dynamic time scales and complex data patterns with Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters to improve forecasting accuracy. Additionally, our architecture easily combines the newest Smart and Green Technology, enabling energy system innovation. Comparative performance research shows that our technique outperforms similar models in mean absolute percentage error, accuracy and root mean square error. This hybrid model is a reliable short-term energy load forecast solution that fits the dynamic terrain of smart and green technology integration in modern energy systems.

Construction and optimization of non-parametric analysis model for meter coefficients via back propagation neural network

This study addresses the drawbacks of traditional methods used in meter coefficient analysis, which are low accuracy and long processing time. A new method based on non-parametric analysis using the Back Propagation (BP) neural network is proposed to overcome these limitations. The study explores the classification and pattern recognition capabilities of the BP neural network by analyzing its non-parametric model and optimization methods. For model construction, the study uses the United Kingdom Domestic Appliance-Level Electricity dataset’s meter readings and related data for training and testing the proposed model. The non-parametric analysis model is used for data pre-processing, feature extraction, and normalization to obtain the training and testing datasets. Experimental tests compare the proposed non-parametric analysis model based on the BP neural network with the traditional Least Squares Method (LSM). The results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves the accuracy indicators such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean relative error (MRE) when compared with the LSM method. The proposed model achieves an MAE of 0.025 and an MRE of 1.32% in the testing dataset, while the LSM method has an MAE of 0.043 and an MRE of 2.56% in the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed non-parametric analysis model based on the BP neural network can achieve higher accuracy in meter coefficient analysis when compared with the traditional LSM method. This study provides a novel non-parametric analysis method with practical reference value for the electricity industry in energy metering and load forecasting.

Collaborative Optimization Scheduling of Multi-Microgrids Incorporating Hydrogen-Doped Natural Gas and P2G–CCS Coupling under Carbon Trading and Carbon Emission Constraints

In the context of “dual carbon”, restrictions on carbon emissions have attracted widespread attention from researchers. In order to solve the issue of the insufficient exploration of the synergistic emission reduction effects of various low-carbon policies and technologies applied to multiple microgrids, we propose a multi-microgrid electricity cooperation optimization scheduling strategy based on stepped carbon trading, a hydrogen-doped natural gas system and P2G–CCS coupled operation. Firstly, a multi-energy microgrid model is developed, coupled with hydrogen-doped natural gas system and P2G–CCS, and then carbon trading and a carbon emission restriction mechanism are introduced. Based on this, a model for multi-microgrid electricity cooperation is established. Secondly, design optimization strategies for solving the model are divided into the day-ahead stage and the intraday stage. In the day-ahead stage, an improved alternating direction multiplier method is used to distribute the model to minimize the cooperative costs of multiple microgrids. In the intraday stage, based on the day-ahead scheduling results, an intraday scheduling model is established and a rolling optimization strategy to adjust the output of microgrid equipment and energy purchases is adopted, which reduces the impact of uncertainties in new energy output and load forecasting and improves the economic and low-carbon operation of multiple microgrids. Setting up different scenarios for experimental validation demonstrates the effectiveness of the introduced low-carbon policies and technologies as well as the effectiveness of their synergistic interaction.

Load Forecasting with Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Efficient Power System Management

Aim: Load forecasting with for efficient power system management Background:: Short-term energy load forecasting (STELF) is a valuable tool for utility companies and energy providers because it allows them to predict and plan for changes in energy. Method:: 1D CNN BI-LSTM model incorporating convolutional layers. Result:: The results provide the Root Mean Square Error of 0.952. The results shows that the proposed model outperforms the existing CNN based model with improved accuracy, hourly prediction, load forecasting. Conclusion:: The proposed model has several applications, including optimal energy allocation and demand-side management, which are essential for smart grid operation and control. The model’s ability to accurately management forecast electricity load will enable power utilities to optimize their generation.

Application of Gray Expansion Model in Energy Economic Analysis and Load Forecasting

Objective and effective prediction of energy consumption can not only optimize the energy consumption structure, but also provide important information for the government to formulate energy conservation and emission reduction measures. With the development of new energy sources and changes in the global energy consumption structure, historical energy data that are too old may no longer be reliable for forecasting, which leads to a decrease in the amount of information on energy, and the gray theory, which is applicable to “poor information”, has gained attention. Firstly, the optimization of energy economic objectives and transformation path methods at this stage is clarified; then, the DEA-Malmqusit model is used to improve the shortcomings of the traditional model that can only compare different cross-sections at the same time node, and to evaluate and analyze the full-factor multi-indicators of energy enterprises in terms of technological empowerment, environmental dynamics, and economic output efficiency; finally, the LEAPS-based energy system consumption and load capacity prediction model. The results show that the traditional algorithm is not accurate enough and has some deviation when the energy raw data fluctuates a lot. The algorithm proposed in this paper still gives a better prediction, predicting a city’s carbon emission to be 65,240,100 tons in 2024, with a 3.6% increase in energy output year by year.

Short-term Electric Energy Load Forecasting of Ankara Region Using Artificial İntelligence Methods

While energy, which is an indispensable part of everyday life, maintains its importance and place in socio-economic structures of countries, importance of electricity energy, as an important component of energy, is increasing its gravity exponentially. Importance of electricity energy demand maintains its increasing trend in line with growing population, urbanization, industrialization, becoming widespread of technology and welfare. While meeting electricity energy demand, correct and effective load forecasting is needed in order to ensure operational safety without losing the stability of voltage, frequency and power flows within the limits determined under the real time conditions of electric power systems, operate and plan secure and low-cost electricity transmission systems and supply sustainable, reliable, high quality and affordable electricity to consumers. In recent years, use of the artificial intelligence models are quite common in many areas of the power system analysis and control, static and dynamic security analysis, dynamic load modelling and alarm processing and error diagnostics. Therefore, in this study, hybrid artificial neural network model optimized with genetic algorithm has been proposed to perform short-term load forecast since fairly good forecasting results are being obtained especially for non-linear complex problems. The proposed short-term load forecasting model has been tested by making 24 hours load forecasting using actual load data of Ankara Region in Turkey. The results obtained from the proposed model have been compared with classical ANN. In this study, for short-term electric load forecasting based on artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm an adaptive hybrid system has been proposed. Using artificial neural network based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) a new approach for short-term electric load forecasting has been developed. This proposed hybrid algorithm has been implemented for short-term load forecasting. In the proposed model, the actual forecast was made by ANN, Genetic Algorithm is used to select the most appropriate activation function for each node of ANN. Thus, it has been observed that network error decreased even more than classical ANN. The results show that hybrid ANN gives better result than classical ANN. So, the accuracy of the proposed model for short-term load forecasting has been increased. These results showed that the proposed model has a higher accuracy rate than the classical ANN in the short-term load forecasting.

Review of multiple load forecasting method for integrated energy system

In order to further improve the efficiency of energy utilization, Integrated Energy Systems (IES) connect various energy systems closer, which has become an important energy utilization mode in the process of energy transition. Because the complex and variable multiple load is an important part of the new power system, the load forecasting is of great significance for the planning, operation, control, and dispatching of the new power system. In order to timely track the latest research progress of the load forecasting method and grasp the current research hotspot and the direction of load forecasting, this paper reviews the relevant research content of the forecasting methods. Firstly, a brief overview of Integrated Energy Systems and load forecasting is provided. Secondly, traditional forecasting methods based on statistical analysis and intelligent forecasting methods based on machine learning are discussed in two directions to analyze the advantages, disadvantages, and applicability of different methods. Then, the results of Integrated Energy Systemss multiple load forecasting for the past 5 years are compiled and analyzed. Finally, the Integrated Energy Systems load forecasting is summarized and looked forward.

Deep learning integration optimization of electric energy load forecasting and market price based on the ANN–LSTM–transformer method

Introduction: Power load forecasting and market price analysis have become crucial in the context of complex power energy systems and volatile market prices. Deep learning technology has gained significant attention in time series forecasting, and this article aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of power load and market price predictions by integrating and optimizing deep learning models.Methods: We propose a deep learning framework that combines artificial neural networks (ANNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), and transformer models to address key challenges in electricity load forecasting and market price prediction. We leverage ANNs for their versatility and use LSTM networks for sequence modeling to generate initial predictions. Additionally, we introduce transformer technology and utilize its self-attention mechanism to capture long-distance dependencies within the data, further enhancing the model’s performance.Results: In our experiments, we validate the proposed framework using multiple public datasets. We compare our method with traditional forecasting approaches and a single-model approach. The results demonstrate that our approach outperforms other methods in predicting power load and market prices. This increased accuracy and reliability in forecasting can be of significant value to decision-makers in the energy sector.Discussion: The integration of deep learning models, including ANN, LSTM, and transformer, offers a powerful solution for addressing the challenges in power load and market price prediction. The ability to capture long-distance dependencies using the transformer's self-attention mechanism improves forecasting accuracy. This research contributes to the field of energy and finance by providing a more reliable framework for decision-makers to make informed choices in a complex and dynamic environment.

Cascade hydropower stations optimal dispatch considering flexible margin in renewable energy power system

Power system flexibility refers to the ability to respond to changing net loads within a predefined timeframe. The main causes of flexible demand are resource and load uncertainties. The joint interaction of resource and load uncertainty makes flexible demand more complex. Accurately assessing the power system flexibility and promoting flexible supply are important for maintaining grid safety and stability. In this study, a joint probability distribution for intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) output and load forecast deviation is proposed. Subsequently, an optimal dispatch model that considers flexible demand and hydropower flexible supply is built to improve the operation scheme of flexible resources. A hydropower dispatch model that does not consider the probability of IRES output and load forecast deviation is used as the contrast model. A comparison of the results shows that the optimal dispatch model is more beneficial for maintaining grid safety and stability. The results show that the maximum upward adjustment flexible (UAF) margin of the optimal dispatch model of the Yalong River Downstream is 376 MW, whereas the maximum downward adjustment flexible (DAF) margin is 197 MW. This implies that a greater UAF supply is required in the case study to satisfy the power system flexible demand.

BiGTA-Net: A Hybrid Deep Learning-Based Electrical Energy Forecasting Model for Building Energy Management Systems

The growth of urban areas and the management of energy resources highlight the need for precise short-term load forecasting (STLF) in energy management systems to improve economic gains and reduce peak energy usage. Traditional deep learning models for STLF present challenges in addressing these demands efficiently due to their limitations in modeling complex temporal dependencies and processing large amounts of data. This study presents a groundbreaking hybrid deep learning model, BiGTA-net, which integrates a bi-directional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU), a temporal convolutional network (TCN), and an attention mechanism. Designed explicitly for day-ahead 24-point multistep-ahead building electricity consumption forecasting, BiGTA-net undergoes rigorous testing against diverse neural networks and activation functions. Its performance is marked by the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.37 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 171.3 on an educational building dataset. Furthermore, it exhibits flexibility and competitive accuracy on the Appliances Energy Prediction (AEP) dataset. Compared to traditional deep learning models, BiGTA-net reports a remarkable average improvement of approximately 36.9% in MAPE. This advancement emphasizes the model’s significant contribution to energy management and load forecasting, accentuating the efficacy of the proposed hybrid approach in power system optimizations and smart city energy enhancements.

Energy load forecasting: one-step ahead hybrid model utilizing ensembling

In the light of the adverse effects of climate change, data analysis and Machine Learning (ML) techniques can provide accurate forecasts, which enable efficient scheduling and operation of energy usage. Especially in the built environment, Energy Load Forecasting (ELF) enables Distribution System Operators or Aggregators to accurately predict the energy demand and generation trade-offs. This paper focuses on developing and comparing predictive algorithms based on historical data from a near Zero Energy Building. This involves energy load, as well as temperature data, which are used to develop and evaluate various base ML algorithms and methodologies, including Artificial Neural Networks and Decision-trees, as well as their combination. Each algorithm is fine-tuned and tested, accounting for the unique data characteristics, such as the presence of photovoltaics, in order to produce a robust approach for One-Step-Ahead ELF. To this end, a novel hybrid model utilizing ensemble methods was developed. It combines multiple base ML algorithms the outputs of which are utilized to train a meta-model voting regressor. This hybrid model acts as a normalizer for any new data input. An experimental comparison of the model against unseen data and other ensemble approaches, showed promising forecasting results (mean absolute percentage error = 5.39%), particularly compared to the base algorithms.

An adaptive federated learning system for community building energy load forecasting and anomaly prediction

Energy load forecasting is critical for sustainable building development and management. Although the energy data could be collected through Internet of Things (IoT) systems, it is a big challenge to train a large-scale machine learning model due to data isolation. Since the building energy data could reveal confidential information such as user behaviors and building operations, the privacy regulations would not allow central service to collect distributed data from data owners directly. This paper designs a secure federated data analytics system for forecasting community buildings' energy data load. A novel adaptive weight federated learning algorithm is proposed to handle the system faults frequently happening during networking operations. Moreover, a new deep learning model is re-invented to improve energy load forecasting performance. The experiments of the system are performed on an actual university campus dataset, and the results show the new federated algorithm improves the load forecasting accuracy and achieves the best load forecasting result. The new deep learning model improves the forecasting accuracy by almost 10% on error reduction under the same federated learning settings. To evaluate the load forecasting model's practical usefulness, an anomaly prediction pipeline is designed through the combination of gaussian mixture model and load forecasting model, which reveals the system's effectiveness at building energy management that 92% F1 score with 97% accuracy is achieved by the best model.

A deep learning framework using multi-feature fusion recurrent neural networks for energy consumption forecasting

Accurate energy load forecasting can not only provide favorable conditions for ensuring energy security but also reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow down the process of global warming. With the continuous construction of smart grids, energy consumption information can be easily obtained, which provides a good foundation for forecasting work. In the household energy consumption forecasting field, the current mainstream methods combine signal processing with artificial intelligence methods to improve forecasting accuracy. However, due to differences in residents' daily habits and sensor errors, the energy consumption data of individual households exhibit high volatility and contain noise. Existing methods' accuracy, robustness, generalization ability, and efficiency are challenged when considering multi-time scales and multi-samples. Based on this, this paper proposes a deep learning framework using multi-feature fusion recurrent neural networks for univariate energy consumption data. The proposed framework employs improved Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and multivariate input recurrent neural network (RNN). To verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework, a series of comparative experiments were conducted on the Moroccan buildings' electricity consumption dataset (MORED). Experiments reveal that the proposed framework achieves adaptive decomposition of raw time series data and multi-feature fusion input. Moreover, under the evaluation of multiple metrics, the proposed framework outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of forecasting accuracy, robustness, generalization ability, and efficiency.

An Improved Pattern Sequence-Based Energy Load Forecast Algorithm Based on Self-Organizing Maps and Artificial Neural Networks

Pattern sequence-based models are a type of forecasting algorithm that utilizes clustering and other techniques to produce easily interpretable predictions faster than traditional machine learning models. This research focuses on their application in energy demand forecasting and introduces two significant contributions to the field. Firstly, this study evaluates the use of pattern sequence-based models with large datasets. Unlike previous works that use only one dataset or multiple datasets with less than two years of data, this work evaluates the models in three different public datasets, each containing eleven years of data. Secondly, we propose a new pattern sequence-based algorithm that uses a genetic algorithm to optimize the number of clusters alongside all other hyperparameters of the forecasting method, instead of using the Cluster Validity Indices (CVIs) commonly used in previous proposals. The results indicate that neural networks provide more accurate results than any pattern sequence-based algorithm and that our proposed algorithm outperforms other pattern sequence-based algorithms, albeit with a longer training time.

Integrated Energy Microgrid Economic Dispatch Optimization Model Based on Information-Gap Decision Theory

To address the problems of “difficult to consume” renewable energy and the randomness of power output, we propose the CHP unit joint-operation model with power to gas (P2G) and carbon capture system (CCS) technologies and analyze the operation cost, carbon emission, and “electric-heat coupling” characteristics of this model. A dispatch optimization model is constructed based on the information-gap decision theory under the strategy to further consider the interval uncertainty of renewable energy unit output and load forecast. The optimized-dispatching model effectively solves the fate of renewable unit output and electric-thermal load and provides dispatching strategies for decision-makers to balance risk and capital management.

Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting Model with Sample Filtering

Short-term energy load forecasting is a crucial task in the power smart grid, which enables the power utilities to understand the future energy demands and plans to attain the demand and supply equilibrium, thereby optimizing power deployment and reducing power losses. Several techniques have been implemented to enhance energy load forecasting. However, the nonlinear nature of the data collected in the smart grid makes it difficult to attain 100% energy load forecasting accuracy. For instance, the Deep Feedforward Neural Networks model based on Input Attention Mechanism and Hidden Connection Mechanism has a mean absolute percentage error of 3.17%; model based on Sequence to Sequence Recurrent Neural Network with Attention had a mean absolute percentage error of 2.7%. The model based on Deep Recurrent Neural Networks with Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation algorithm had a mean absolute percentage error of 0.58; and Deep Feedforward Neural Network with sample weights model had 3.22 % as root mean squared error. To improve energy load forecasting accuracy, this work proposed a model based on Deep Recurrent Neural Networks and sample filtering, which provides an exhaustive elucidation for modelling a sophisticated stochastic relationship between the input and output features. Deep Recurrent Neural Networks have proven to be good at modelling the nonlinearities in data of different fields and are mostly used in energy load forecasting to reduce forecasting error and a high degree of overfitting. Sample filtering is achieved through the use of K-Means clustering which determines the number of clusters to be used in the model. Findings from the study showed that by employing Deep Recurrent Neural Networks and sample filtering, the short-term energy load forecasting accuracy is improved in reference to mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error of 0.31% and 1.014, respectively. As a result of the reduction in error, the energy demand and supply chain equilibrium are enhanced, thereby optimizing power deployment and reducing power losses.
 Keywords: Machine learning, Neural networks, Sample filtering, Smart grid, Short-term energy forecasting

A Review on Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Microgrids

A microgrid can be formed by the integration of different components such as loads, renewable/conventional units, and energy storage systems in a local area. Microgrids with the advantages of being flexible, environmentally friendly, and self-sufficient can improve the power system performance metrics such as resiliency and reliability. However, the design and implementation of microgrids are always faced with different challenges considering the uncertainties associated with loads and renewable energy resources, sudden load variations, energy management of several energy resources, etc. Therefore, it is required to employ such rapid and accurate methods, as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, to address these challenges and improve the MG's efficiency, stability, security, and reliability. Utilization of AI helps to develop systems as intelligent as humans to learn, decide, and solve problems. This article presents a review on different applications of AI-based techniques in microgrids such as energy management, load and generation forecasting, protection, power electronics control, and cyber security. Different AI tasks such as regression and classification in microgrids are discussed using methods including machine learning, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, support vector machines, etc. The advantages, limitation, and future trends of AI applications in microgrids are discussed.