Energy Alternatives Planning System Model Research Articles

Simulation of fishery energy consumption and carbon emissions in Zhoushan City based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system model

To understand the current situation and development trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the fishery industry, a Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)-fishery model for Zhoushan City was constructed, and the trends of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the Zhoushan City fishery industry were analyzed under the business-as-usual scenario, the low-carbon scenario, and the strengthened low-carbon scenario. The results show that under the business-as-usual scenario, the future energy consumption of Zhoushan City’s fisheries in general shows an increasing trend, and the composition of energy consumption in all scenarios is primarily dominated by fossil energy, with diesel and coal predominating. In terms of the structure of end-use energy consumption, fishing vessels and aquaculture consume the most energy, with energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption in all scenarios. In terms of the emission reduction contribution rate, which the promotion of clean energy generation, the improvement of energy efficiency, and the reduction of aquaculture production play key roles in the low-carbon development of the fishery industry. From an economic perspective, carbon reduction measures such as reduction of aquaculture production and increased efficiency of energy delivery would have significant economic benefits, but these measures have limitations. Finally, suggestions are made to optimize the energy structure, improve the implementation of energy intensity and total energy control, and strengthen public awareness of energy conservation to reduce carbon emissions from the fishery industry, thus making the research in this paper relevant to real-world situations.

Carbon emission peak forecasting and scenario analysis: A case study of educational buildings in Shanghai city

Accurate measurement of carbon emission is the prerequisite for achieving ‘Dual Carbon’ goal in China. In this study, a bottom-up method is proposed to forecast the carbon emissions based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system model which takes pre-primary, primary, and secondary schools in Shanghai city as research subject. The drivers' effects on carbon emission of educational buildings are analyzed with Kaya-LMDI method and three typical scenarios are defined, including normal, energy saving and green scenario. In addition, the electricity carbon emission factor is modified for accurate measure. The results show that these three kinds of schools in Shanghai can achieve carbon peak by 2030 under the above three scenarios. Floor area plays an important role in carbon emission, the peak time would be advanced by two years as the floor area evolves from normal to green scenario. The adoption of dynamically changing electricity carbon emission factor is also essential for accurate measurement. In the end, three policy implications are put forward based on findings. This study enriches the practice of carbon emissions research in building sector from long-term perspective, and provides a new perspective for carbon emission peak forecasting of a segmented industry.

Peak volume and time of energy-related CO2 emissions in Jiangsu Province, China based on long-range energy alternatives planning system model

China has put forward CO2 emissions reduction target (committing to achieve CO2 emissions peak or plateau by 2030) to prevent global climate change. With Jiangsu Province as a case, we explored whether China could achieve the 2030 CO2 emissions reduction target. We predicted the peak volume and time of CO2 emission in three scenarios, i.e., quick scenario, medium scenario, slow scenario, respectively, based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach. The results showed that, during the period 2000 to 2015, the economic scale effect was the most important driver, whose contribution to the increase of total CO2 emissions was as high as 147.4%. The technology progress effect was the main mitigation factor for CO2 emissions, which caused CO2 emissions to decrease by 60.4%. In addition, the contributions of energy structure effect, industrial structure effect, per capita income effect and population scale effect to CO2 emissions were -5.3%, 9.7%, 11.0%, and 0.6% respectively. In quick and medium scenarios, the peak CO2 emissions of Jiangsu Province would be 701 million tons in 2025, and 795 million tons in 2029, respectively. In slow scenario, however, Jiangsu Province could not achieve the 2030 CO2 emissions reduction target. To achieve the 2030 target, Jiangsu Province needs to adopt some strategies, including actively developing the tertiary industry to balance the economic structure, continuously promoting energy saving and emissions reduction technologies to reduce energy consuming intensity, and vigorously deploying clean energy to optimize the energy consuming structure.

Environmental assessment of renewable energy scenarios for a sustainable future in Turkey

In this study, we aim to present the outcomes of the environmental impact assessment of renewable energy scenarios relevant with the sustainable perception in Turkey using energy modelling for the period 2014–2050. Therefore, we use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model and develop three scenarios as follows: Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I, and Alternative Scenario-II. We find that the total social costs in Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II are $88.75 billion, $76.73 billion and $71.15 billion per annum, respectively. Self-sufficiency of the country as the political impact factor in Reference Scenario is expected to be 10.5% in 2050, while it is 41.4% in Alternative Scenario-I and 54% in Alternative Scenario-II. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, Reference Scenario leads to 736 million metric tons of CO2-eq per annum, which is calculated to be 77.4% and 99.5% higher than Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II, respectively. We conclude that it is a necessity for Turkey to employ its renewable energy potential that it possesses in abundance with efficiency measures. Otherwise, missing this paradigm shift process may stir up a hornet’s nest of harder sectoral challenges and externalities in the near future of the country.

Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China

Cities consume more than 67% of global primary energy, the production of which results in approximately three-quarters of global CO2 emissions, exacerbating the global warming trend and related extreme weather events and natural disasters. Therefore, it is critical for cities to use existing and new sources of energy efficiently and effectively. This paper introduces a methodology that can combine sustainable energy planning with economic analysis, proposing a form of sustainable urban energy planning that could reduce energy consumption with the minimum economic cost. Taking a postindustrial city (Shenzhen, China) as an example, this paper defines four scenarios by which to analyze future projections of energy generation and consumption from 2015 to 2030 based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model. Also developed are Sankey maps for the energy flow from the energy supply to demand sectors for different scenarios. The results show that energy efficiency improvement and energy structure upgrade policies implemented in Shenzhen would have a significant impact on its energy system. Energy consumption is projected to increase steadily up to 2030 under each scenario except for the Peak Scenario, but with different growth rates. Electricity generation in all scenarios is supposed to expand by 2030 and sustainable electricity (such as distributed photovoltaic power, waste-to-energy power, and Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power) will play an important role in the Energy structure upgrade and Peak scenarios.

Sectoral energy-carbon nexus and low-carbon policy alternatives: A case study of Ningbo, China

The intensive energy consumption in urban sectors is aggravating global warming, which triggers an in-depth thinking about energy-carbon nexus and low-carbon city actions. Hence, China has launched a pilot low-carbon city program to explore low-carbon pathways since 2010. This study employed a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model (LEAP) to simulate six energy sectors-related GHG emissions in a pilot low-carbon Ningbo city, China. The LEAP-Ningbo model comprises three basic modules, i.e. energy supply, energy transformation and end-use energy demand in six urban sectors (i.e., household, service, agriculture, transport, industry, and transformation sectors), and resulting environmental impacts (CO2 equivalents). The results identified by the business as usual (BAU) scenario indicate that total energy consumption is expected to reach 449.72 Mtce and results in emissions of 651.83 Mt CO2e by 2050. In contrast, more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the integrated scenario (INT), which combines the energy structure optimization (ESO) scenario with the policy-oriented energy saving (PES) scenario, can lower energy demand by 14% and CO2e emissions by 27%. A comparison among global cities and low-carbon plans helps identify the carbon emission level and define the actionable low-carbon policies. The high correlation between sectoral energy use and resulting GHG emissions implies energy-carbon reduction efforts, e.g., low-carbon energy substitution, intensive energy-saving policies, the improvement of energy efficiency, and industrial transformation. Achieving low-carbon city targets requires timeline-restricted actions and backgrounds-based measures in plans. The results of this study shed light on if and how cities can shape energy-carbon reduction trajectories and develop low-carbon pathways in China and beyond.

Integrated Resource Planning for Long-term Electricity Supply in Selected GMS Countries, Part 2: Environmental and Economic Impacts

This research article presents the potential of integrated resource planning (IRP) options for long term electricity supply in selected Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries, namely Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. Results from Part 1 show the achievement of the IRP context in GMS. The mitigation scenario would improve the quality of electricity supply and mitigate CO2 emissions from the power sector. At the same time, the renewable energy (RE) scenario has the highest total generation cost. However, to make the renewable energy technologies competitive with fossil fuels, incentives in terms of carbon credit are taken into account. Results of this study were analyzed by using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system model. Results reveal that under the IRP concept, the selected GMS countries could mitigate CO2 emissions by about 61.16 million tonnes when compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. In the meantime, under incentive cost in the RE scenario, the total generation would be reduced by 2.3% when compared to the BAU scenario.

Integrated Resource Planning for Long-term Electricity Supply in Selected GMS Countries, Part 1:Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

The scarcity of fossil fuel to supply the high growth in energy demand in the selected Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is leading to the concern about future electricity supply. The effect of the high fossil fuel price on the global market would lead to limitation in economic development in this region. In 2007, most countries in the selected GMS, namely Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam, used abundant fossil fuels in electricity generation. Fossil fuels used in power generation accounted for 90%, 85%, 60%, and 1.5% in Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos, respectively. This study includes the integrated resource planning (IRP) concept into the long-term power planning. IRP is the most appropriate approach that applied to both demand and supply sides. To curb the high growth in electricity demand, the demand-side management options are taken into account. To reduce the high dependency on imported fossil fuel, the domestic renewable energy resources and reduction in transmission and distribution losses are introduced. Results of this study were analyzed by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system model. Results reveal that under the IRP concept, the selected GMS countries could save the installed power capacity of 5,780 MW by 2030.

03/02380 Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model: Kumar, A. et al. Energy, 2003, 28, (7), 627–654

03/02380 Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model: Kumar, A. et al. Energy, 2003, 28, (7), 627–654

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model

The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials of number of selected Biomass Energy Technologies (BETs) have been assessed in Vietnam. These include Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC) based on wood and bagasse, direct combustion plants based on wood, co-firing power plants and Stirling engine based on wood and cooking stoves. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, different scenarios were considered, namely the base case with no mitigation options, replacement of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by biogas stove, substitution of gasoline by ethanol in transport sector, replacement of coal by wood as fuel in industrial boilers, electricity generation with biomass energy technologies and an integrated scenario including all the options together. Substitution of coal stoves by biogas stove has positive abatement cost, as the cost of wood in Vietnam is higher than coal. Replacement of kerosene and LPG cookstoves by biomass stove also has a positive abatement cost. Replacement of gasoline by ethanol can be realized after a few years, as at present the cost of ethanol is more than the cost of gasoline. The replacement of coal by biomass in industrial boiler is also not an attractive option as wood is more expensive than coal in Vietnam. The substitution of fossil fuel fired plants by packages of BETs has a negative abatement cost. This option, if implemented, would result in mitigation of 10.83 million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in 2010.