Endogenous Stock Market Research Articles

Endogenous Stock Market Participation and Wealth Accumulation: A Life-Cycle Model Perspective

Endogenous Stock Market Participation and Wealth Accumulation: A Life-Cycle Model Perspective

Endogenous Stock Market Participation and Wealth Accumulation: A Life-Cycle Model Perspective

We propose a life-cycle model, where individuals facing uninsurable labor income risks choose whether to participate the stock market and make decisions on home-ownership, in an environment with social safety net and the retirement savings system. The model is motivated by the empirical finding that active stock market participation is associated with higher level of education and employment experience in the finance sector. The model exhibits good fit on portfolio choice, home-ownership, consumption pattern in the cross- section and through life-cycle. We find that the lack of stock market access, proxied by a fixed entry cost and variable costs, plays a key role in generating heterogeneous outcome in agent’s wealth accumulation, and therefore, increases wealth inequality.

The use of scaling properties to detect relevant changes in financial time series: A new visual warning tool

The dynamical evolution of multiscaling in financial time series is investigated using time-dependent Generalized Hurst Exponents (GHE), Hq, for various values of the parameter q. Using Hq, we introduce a new visual methodology to algorithmically detect critical changes in the scaling of the underlying complex time-series. The methodology involves the degree of multiscaling at a particular time instance, the multiscaling trend which is calculated by the Change-Point Analysis method, and a rigorous evaluation of the statistical significance of the results. Using this algorithm, we have identified particular patterns in the temporal co-evolution of the different Hq time-series. These GHE patterns, distinguish in a statistically robust way, not only between time periods of uniscaling and multiscaling, but also among different types of multiscaling: symmetric multiscaling (M) and asymmetric multiscaling (A). Asymmetric multiscaling can also be robustly divided into three other subcategories. We apply the visual methodology to time-series comprising of daily close prices of four stock market indices: two major ones (S&P 500 and Tokyo-NIKKEI) and two peripheral ones (Athens Stock Exchange general Index and Bombay-SENSEX). Results show that multiscaling varies greatly with time: time periods of strong multiscaling behavior and time periods of uniscaling behavior are interchanged while transitions from uniscaling to multiscaling behavior occur before critical market events, such as stock market bubbles. Moreover, particular asymmetric multiscaling patterns appear during critical stock market eras and provide useful information about market conditions. In particular, they can be used as ’fingerprints’ of a turbulent market period as well as provide warning signals for an upcoming stock market ’bubble’. The applied visual methodology also appears to distinguish between exogenous and endogenous stock market crises, based on the observed patterns before the actual events. The visual methodology is sufficiently general to be applicable for the description of the dynamical evolution of multiscaling properties of any complex system.

ENDOGENOUS PARTICIPATION, RISK, AND LEARNING IN THE STOCK MARKET

A simple asset pricing model with both endogenous stock market participation and subjective risk can explain the negative cross-country correlation between participation rates and the volatility of excess returns, along with the time-varying participation rates in the data. Belief-driven learning dynamics can explain the interplay between participation rates, subjective risk, and stock price volatility. When agents adaptively learn about the risk and return, my model generates 25% of the excess volatility observed in US stock prices, while also matching key moments. With learning about risk, excess volatility of stock prices is driven by fluctuations in the participation rate that arise because agents’ risk estimates vary with prices. I find that learning about risk is quantitatively more important than learning about returns.

How can we Engineer Stock Markets like NSEIL with BSE SENSEX index data using String Theory

<span class="fontstyle0">This paper considers the problem of sustainably developing<br />stock exchanges like NSEIL and measurable index systems like BSE SENSEX by developing strategies to achieve sales volume which achieve optimal<br />growth rates. Experimental data on BSE SENSEX and Companies over time<br />are used which closely mimics now active NSEIL. This requires consideration<br />of consumer choice in intertemporal markets with endogenous stock market<br />products. A sequence of five steps is derived to characterize the venturing<br />technology which will achieve such desired stock market sales volume with<br />fixed prices and hence the optimal growth rate. It is derived how String Theory is sufficient to build such stock markets in value and volumes by using<br />depositories. </span>

How can we Engineer Stock Markets like NSEIL with BSE SENSEX index data using String Theory

<span class="fontstyle0">This paper considers the problem of sustainably developing<br />stock exchanges like NSEIL and measurable index systems like BSE SENSEX by developing strategies to achieve sales volume which achieve optimal<br />growth rates. Experimental data on BSE SENSEX and Companies over time<br />are used which closely mimics now active NSEIL. This requires consideration<br />of consumer choice in intertemporal markets with endogenous stock market<br />products. A sequence of five steps is derived to characterize the venturing<br />technology which will achieve such desired stock market sales volume with<br />fixed prices and hence the optimal growth rate. It is derived how String Theory is sufficient to build such stock markets in value and volumes by using<br />depositories. </span>

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Africa

ABSTRACTWe revisit in this paper the debate between financial development and economic growth. In contrast to previous studies examining banking related measures, we focus on the capital account and the depth of African stock markets. We examine 15 African countries from 1995 to 2010 and employ both static and dynamic panel data methods. While the former suggest weak results overall, portfolio flows and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) have consistently positive effects on economic growth under endogenous stock market capitalization. These findings reinforce the view that African countries should open their equity markets to international investors and encourage FDI.

Using recurrence plot analysis to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous stock market crashes

Recurrence Plots are graphical tools based on Phase Space Reconstruction. Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) is a statistical quantification of RPs. RP and RQA are good at working with non-stationarity and noisy data, in detecting changes in data behavior, in particular in detecting breaks, like a phase transition and in informing about other dynamic properties of a time series. Endogenous Stock Market Crashes have been modeled as phase changes in recent times. Motivated by this, we have used RP and RQA techniques for detecting critical regimes preceding an endogenous crash seen as a phase transition and hence give an estimation of the initial bubble time. We have used a new method for computing RQA measures with confidence intervals. We have also used the techniques on a known exogenous crash to see if the RP reveals a different story or not. The analysis is made on Nifty, Hong Kong AOI and Dow Jones Industrial Average, taken over a time span of about 3 years for the endogenous crashes. Then the RPs of all time series have been observed, compared and discussed. All the time series have been first transformed into the classical momentum divided by the maximum Xmax of the time series over the time window which is considered in the specific analysis. RPs have been plotted for each time series, and RQA variables have been computed on different epochs. Our studies reveal that, in the case of an endogenous crash, we have been able to identify the bubble, while in the case of exogenous crashes the plots do not show any such pattern, thus helping us in identifying such crashes.

Affine General Equilibrium Models

No-arbitrage models are extremely flexible modelling tools but often lack economic motivation. This paper describes an equilibrium consumption-based CAPM framework based on Epstein-Zin preferences, which produces analytic pricing formulas for stocks and bonds under the assumption that macro growth rates follow affine processes. This allows the construction of equilibrium pricing formulas while maintaining the same flexibility of state dynamics as in no-arbitrage models. In demonstrating the approach, the paper presents a model that incorporates inflation such that asset prices are nominal. The model takes advantage of the possibility of non-Gaussian shocks and model macroeconomic uncertainty as a jump-diffusion process. This leads to endogenous stock market crashes as stock prices drop to reflect a higher expected rate of return in response to sudden increases in risk. The nominal yield curve in this model has a positive slope if expected inflation growth negatively impacts real growth. This model also produces asset prices that are consistent with observed data, including a substantial equity premium at moderate levels of risk aversion.

Risk, Robustness and Knightian Uncertainty in Continuous-Time, Heterogenous Agents, Financial Equilibria

We analyze and compare analytically continuous-time financial equilibria where heterogeneous risk averse investors care about model misspecification through some preference for robustness and in the presence of a stochastic opportunity set. This incorporates a concern for model misspecification into equilibrium asset prices. Since no exact equilibrium computations are possible in this model setting, perturbation theory is used to provide first order asymptotics for the implied equilibria. We find that to first order robustness enhances eective risk aversion while keeping constant the preference for intertemporal substitution. Therefore, equilibrium consumption, equilibrium capital stock dynamics (in production economies) and equilibrium stock price processes (in exchange economies) are not directly modified by a preference for robustness. By contrast, robustness aects directly optimal portfolios, causing lower equilibrium interest rates - and thereby enhanced risk premia - when the speculative investment motive dominates the intertem-poral hedging demand. Finally, at variance with other robustness specifications, definitions of robustness that mimic Knightian uncertainty produce state dependent eective risk aversions that generate first order risk aversion eects on optimal portfolios, equilibrium interest rates and equity premia. This yields functional forms for some key equilibrium variables like equity premia which are structurally different from those implied by standard risk aversion or other robustness definitions, which reflect all second order risk aversion. Moreover, under Knightian uncertainty the structure of an equilibrium depends strongly on the completeness of the underlying economy. For instance, within complete production economies we find that Knightian uncertainty can generate an endogenous stock market participation, a feature that cannot be obtained by the other robustness definitions. The richness of the equilibrium eects generated in our heterogenous economies suggests that definitions of robustness which mimic Knightian uncertainty can generate the largest variety of robust economic behaviours in the presence of model uncertainty.

Does 'Illiquidity' Rather Than 'Risk Aversion' Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?: The Value of Endogenous Market Trading

Yes. I aim to establish empirically that the puzzle, with its 6% excess return per annum over Treasury bills for the last 100 years on the NYSE, can be explained once the value of endogenous stock market trading is incorporated into preferences. Within my framework, investors enjoy trading. According to my model, the investor surplus from trading liquid Treasury bills relative to illiquid equity is exactly compensated for by the expected equity premium. Observed transaction cost and liquidity differentials between equity and bills are consistent with the premium. Extensive tests are carried out on Australian and US NYSE data for 1955-98. The puzzle concerning the volatility of the stochastic discount factor also appears to be explained by trading behavior, which is of comparable volatility. Reasonably accurate estimates of transactions costs are extracted just from daily dividend yields and turnover. Transaction costs would need to be 400% higher to explain the premium by the amortized spread, together with exogenous trading and habit formation. An ability to create unlimited wealth, implicit in some existing models, no longer applies. Additionally, the model explains the further 15-20% pa discount on illiquid letter stock.

The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings

T HE application of capital theory to decisions on individual improvement, and in particular improvement of earning capacity, has provided a framework for the understanding of many aspects of observed behavior regarding education, health, occupational choice, mobility, etc., as rational investment of present resources for the purpose of enjoying future returns. The formulation by Friedman and Kuznets (1945) and the significant development of the theory by Becker (1962, 1964) and Mincer (1958, 1962) provided a novel view of the life cycle of earnings by linking it to the time profile of investment in human capital: People make most of their investments in themselves when they are young, and to a large extent by foregoing current earnings. Observed earnings are therefore relatively low at early years, and they rise as investment declines and as returns on past investments are realized. The main reason why investment is undertaken mostly by the young is that they have a longer period over which they can re-