Endogenous Retirement Research Articles

WITHDRAWN: Addressing China’s retirement Dilemma: Exploring strategies to balance life expectancy and leisure preference

We construct an overlapping generation model (OLG) that reflects workers’ endogenous retirement intention and retirement age, and examine the effects of increased life expectancy and leisure preference on individuals’ retirement age choice, with a specific focus on China’s unique demographic and economic context. The deepening degree of population aging in China may lead to a series of economic and social challenges if not properly addressed. Our findings suggest that as life expectancy rises, individuals may choose to work longer and retire later to accumulate more resources for their extended retirement years. However, with fewer young people entering the workforce and an increasing older population, labor shortages and pressures on the pension and healthcare systems are of paramount concern. The results have significant implications for policy-making in China, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments to retirement age policies and leisure preferences to sustain economic growth and manage the aging population crisis.

Retirement, housing mobility, downsizing and neighbourhood quality - A causal investigation

This paper provides the first causal evidence on the impact of retirement on housing choices. Our empirical strategy exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension as an instrument for the endogenous retirement decision and controls for time-invariant individual characteristics. The results show that retirement leads to a statistically significant and sizable increase in the probability of making a residential move or the likelihood of becoming outright homeowners. We also find that individuals downsize both physically and financially and tend to move to better neighbourhoods or closer to the coast upon retirement. We additionally discover that some housing adjustments take place up to 6 years before retirement. Moreover, our results reveal significant heterogeneity in the retirement impact by gender, marital status, education, housing tenue, income and wealth. Within traditional heterosexual couple households, housing mobility choices are primarily influenced by the wife's retirement while housing downsizing decisions are only affected by the husband's retirement.

Optimal policies in an ageing society

We analyze optimal social security in an overlapping generations model with demographic change and endogenous retirement. Households choose to spend the second period of their lives in full retirement if the tax rate on labor income exceeds a threshold. This threshold is increasing in life expectancy and decreasing in the fertility rate, which implies that both types of demographic change increase the relevance of the partial retirement case: both an increase in life expectancy and a drop in fertility imply that retirement is delayed. We also show that when the government decides about retirement, the command optimum can be replicated through social security policies if the laissez-faire equilibrium features capital overaccumulation. When households decide about their retirement themselves, however, replication of the command optimum is not possible. In both cases, it is optimal to expand social security when longevity increases and to reduce it when fertility drops.

Bounded rationality and optimal retirement age

This paper explores a lifecycle model of labor supply and endogenous retirement behavior for households whose planning window is truncated and who will reoptimize as extra information on productivity is revealed over time. This short horizon model internalizes the restriction on temporal resource allocation, and the labor supply is closely dependent on the degree of productivity changes in view. With the model, the retirement timing—the moment at which the marginal value from the expected resources drops below a threshold—evolves according to the planning window. Using a discrete time overlapping generations framework with leisure substitutability, in which the constraint on time is explicitly added, I demonstrate that the calibrated model economy reasonably replicates the salient facts regarding lifecycle labor supply and retirement behaviors without a borrowing constraint commonly found in models of leisure-consumption substitutability. Furthermore, this result is robust to sensitivity check. With the extended environment of mortality risks and bequests, this paper explicitly quantifies the relationship among retirement age, planning horizon, equilibrium bequests and other lifecycle characteristics from the calibrated general equilibrium.

Human capital and pensions with endogenous fertility and retirement

AbstractWe study an OLG model with child policies and a PAYG pension with endogenous retirement and fertility. The result of the planned economy is compared to the decentralized competitive equilibrium deriving optimal policies. We show that in the presence of a PAYG pension system, the optimal policy mix includes an education subsidy and a subsidy for the supply of labor in old age. Fertility should be taxed or incentivized depending on whether there is full or partial retirement, and on the parameters. We focus on the parameter reflecting the deterioration of human capital and show that a child tax may be required.

Effects of Unfunded Pension Reform on Economic Growth Under Endogenous Retirement

Effects of Unfunded Pension Reform on Economic Growth Under Endogenous Retirement

Consumption and hours in the United States and Europe

We document large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities. Using a life-cycle model with home production and endogenous retirement, we find that the cross-country differences in consumption tax, social security system, income tax, and TFP together can account for 68–95% of the cross-country variations in aggregate hours and expenditures. These factors can also account well for the cross-country differences in allocations by age and generate substantially lower market hours in Europe for the age group of sixty and above as in the data. All the factors, except income tax, are quantitatively important for determining cross-country differences in expenditure allocations. While the differences in social security system and income tax are crucial in explaining the difference in market hours around retirement ages, TFP and consumption tax are more important for the difference in market hours for prime ages.

A Funded Pension System with Endogenous Retirement

This study employs an overlapping generations model to analyze the effect of public pension levels on economic variables when the labor supply of the elderly is determined endogenously. This paper focuses on the effects of a funded scheme on the economy as well as a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) scheme. First, the impact of the expansion of public pensions on the capital–labor ratio is analyzed. It is shown that the expansion of a funded pension increases the capital–labor ratio, which is contrasted with the fact that the PAYG pension is neutral to capital–labor ratio. Next, the impact of public pensions’ introduction on steady-state economic welfare is evaluated. The introduction of a PAYG pension will improve economic welfare when the population growth rate is higher than the interest rate, while the introduction of a funded pension will improve economic welfare when the population growth rate is lower than the interest rate.

The aging tax on potential growth in Asia

Population aging is becoming a prominent issue in Asia, especially for developing countries where demographic changes have asserted a downward pressure on the rate of growth. This paper refers to such potential unwanted effects as an “aging tax” and analytically examines them from a neoclassical perspective, using a Diamond-type overlapping generations model with endogenous retirement, survival rate, and old-age productivity. Based on this setup, negative impacts exist if too many old workers that are sufficiently unproductive choose to defer retirement under the aging pressure, which drains resources from future generations. Numerical simulations show that an aging tax can reduce the potential per capita growth rate (technology-adjusted) by up to 0.12 percentage points annually for some countries in Asia. Our results highlight that countries with sufficiently large labor shares (due to a high ratio of self-employment or a manual labor-centric production) and inadequate educational attainment are potentially the most sensitive and vulnerable to population aging.

A health economic theory of occupational choice, aging, and longevity

In this paper, I propose a life cycle model of occupational choice with endogenous health behavior, aging, and longevity. Health-demanding work leads to a faster accumulation of health deficits and is remunerated with a hazard markup on wages. Health deficit accumulation is also influenced by unhealthy consumption and health care expenditure. I calibrate the model for a 20 year old average American in 2010 and show the following results, among others. Health-demanding work is ceteris paribus preferred by male, young, and healthy individuals with a relatively low level of education. Health demanding work has a negligible effect on health behavior because income and health investment effects largely offset each other, implying that health effects can be attributed almost fully to the direct health burden of work. Better medical technology induces low-skilled individuals to spend a greater part of their life in health-demanding work and thus increases the health gradient of education. High wealth endowments protect against unhealthy occupational choices. I show robustness of the results in an extension of the model with regard to endogenous retirement.

Pay-as-You-Go Social Security and Educational Subsidy in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility and Endogenous Retirement

Abstract This study analytically investigates the effects of pay-as-you-go social security and educational subsidies on the fertility rate, retirement age, and GDP per capita growth rate in an overlapping generations model, where parents invest resources toward their children’s human capital. We find that an old agent retires fully when his or her labor productivity is low and retires later when the labor productivity is high. Under the unique balanced-growth-path (BGP) equilibrium, when an old agent is still engaged in work, tax rates are neutral to the fertility rate, higher tax rates encourage him or her to retire earlier, a higher social security tax rate depresses the GDP per capita growth rate, and a higher tax rate for educational subsidies can accelerate growth. However, when an old agent fully retires, higher tax rates increase the fertility rate, a higher social security tax rate lowers the GDP per capita growth rate, and a higher tax rate for educational subsidies boosts growth. Additionally, if an old agent’s labor productivity increases, the fertility rate also increases. We also conduct numerical simulations and analyze how an old agent’s labor productivity affects the retirement age, fertility rate, and GDP per capita growth rate under the BGP equilibrium.

Pension Reform Disabled*

AbstractThis paper builds a quantitative life‐cycle model with endogenous retirement to study how disability insurance (DI) and old‐age pension programs interact with health and wages to determine retirement age. Individuals face uncertain future health and wages, and if in bad health, they can retire with DI before reaching the statutory retirement age. I use the model to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of pension reforms. The main contribution is that, in contrast to standard macro pension models, my model includes DI as another endogenous retirement margin. I show that it is crucial to account for program substitution when evaluating welfare reforms.

Social security and endogenous demographic change: child support and retirement policies

AbstractThis paper studies retirement and child support policies in a small, open, overlapping-generations economy with PAYG social security and endogenous retirement and fertility decisions. It demonstrates that neither fertility nor retirement choices necessarily coincide with socially optimal allocation, because agents do not take into account the externalities of fertility and the elderly labor supply in the economy as a whole. It shows that governments can realize the first-best allocation by introducing a child allowance scheme and a subsidy to incentivize the labor supply of older workers. As an alternative to subsidizing the elderly labor supply, we show that the first-best allocation can also be achieved by controlling the retirement age. Finally, the model is simulated in order to study whether the policies devoted to realizing the social optimum in a market economy could be a Pareto improvement.

Social Security and Endogenous Demographic Change: Child Support and Retirement Policies

This paper studies retirement and child support policies in a small, open, overlapping-generations economy with PAYG social security and endogenous retirement and fertility decisions. It demonstrates that neither fertility nor retirement choices necessarily coincide with socially optimal allocation, because agents do not take into account the externalities of fertility and the elderly labor supply in the economy as a whole. It shows that governments can realize the first-best allocation by introducing a child allowance scheme and a subsidy to incentivize the labor supply of older workers. As an alternative to subsidizing the elderly labor supply, we show that the first-best allocation can also be achieved by controlling the retirement age. Finally, the model is simulated in order to study whether the policies devoted to realizing the social optimum in a market economy could be a Pareto improvement.

Retirement, Housing Mobility, Downsizing and Neighbourhood Quality – A Causal Investigation

This paper provides the first causal evidence on the impact of retirement on housing choices. Our empirical strategy exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension as an instrument for the endogenous retirement decision and controls for time-invariant individual characteristics. The results show that retirement leads to a statistically significant and sizable increase in the probability of making a residential move or the likelihood of becoming outright homeowners. We also find that individuals downsize both physically and financially and tend to move to better neighbourhoods or closer to the coast upon retirement. We additionally discover that some housing adjustments take place up to 6 years before retirement. Moreover, our results reveal significant heterogeneity in the retirement impact by gender, marital status, education, housing tenue, income and wealth. Within couple households, housing mobility choices are primarily influenced by the wife’s retirement while housing downsizing decisions are only affected by the husband’s retirement. The results suggest that failing to address the endogeneity of retirement often under-states the retirement impact on such housing arrangements.

Wealth Effects with Endogenous Retirement

In this article, we study wealth effects, i.e., the response of consumption to exogenous changes in wealth. We use a consumption-saving model with endogenous retirement to show that the endogenous response of the value of a worker's human capital to changes in her wealth helps to account for the weak wealth effects observed in the data.

PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSIONS AND ENDOGENOUS RETIREMENT

This paper revisits two classic results in standard overlapping generations models with a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. Firstly, a PAYG system crowds out private savings and reduces the overall capital stock. Secondly, in dynamically efficient economies, a PAYG system will reduce steady-state welfare. These classic results have been derived and exposed in models with no retirement decision. However, by allowing for endogenous retirement, and without taking recourse to any frictions, uncertainty, or myopia, it is shown that a PAYG system may be neutral and may even increase the capital–labor ratio. In particular, it is shown that the effect of the pension contribution rate on capital intensity depends on the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure. If the elasticity of substitution is between 0 and 1, an increase in the contribution rate will increase capital intensity. Moreover, it is shown that the result regarding welfare may also be overturned. An increase in the PAYG contribution rate may increase steady-state welfare.

Fertility, retirement age, and pay‐as‐you‐go pensions

AbstractThis paper develops an overlapping generations model with exogenous and endogenous retirement age to examine the effects of fertility and retirement age on long‐run pay‐as‐you‐go pensions. For both cases, we find that pensions may not necessarily increase with the fertility rate. In the case with exogenous retirement age, a higher fertility rate (retirement age) raises (reduces) pension benefits if the fertility rate and official pension age are low, whereas this result reverses otherwise. In the case with endogenous retirement age, a higher fertility rate raises pensions if the fertility rate and costs of raising children are low; otherwise, such a change decreases pensions. Our numerical results indicate that, under a reasonable range of parameterization, raising the fertility rate is more likely to increase pensions in the case with exogenous retirement age, whereas such a change tends to reduce pensions in the case with endogenous retirement age.

Endogenous Retirement Behavior of Heterogeneous Households Under Pension Reforms

English Abstract: We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model is built and endogenous retirement decisions are explicitly modeled within a public pension system. Heterogeneity with respect to consumption preferences, wage profiles, and survival rates is embedded in the model. Besides the expected direct effects of these reforms on the behavior of households, we observe that feedback effects do occur. Results suggest that individual retirement decisions are strongly influenced by numerous incentives produced by the pension system and macroeconomic variables, such as the statutory eligibility age, adjustment rates, the presence of a replacement rate, and interest rates. Those decisions, in turn, have several impacts on the macro-economy which can create feedback cycles working through equilibrium effects on interest rates and wages. Taken together, these reform scenarios have strong implications for the sustainability of pension systems. Because of the rich nature of our unified model framework, we are able to rank the reform proposals according to several individual and macroeconomic measures, thereby providing important support for policy recommendations on pension systems. German Abstract: Wir schlagen einen einheitlichen Modellrahmen vor, um die Auswirkungen von Rentenreformen auf das durchschnittliche Renteneintrittsalter und andere makrookonomische Indikatoren zu erfassen. Wir bedienen uns eines erweiterten Modells uberlappender Generationen (OLG), in dem Renteneintrittsentscheidungen in einem umlagefinanzierten Rentensystem explizit modelliert werden. Das Modell lasst Heterogenitat in Bezug auf Konsumpraferenzen, Lohnprofile und Uberlebensraten zu. Neben den erwarteten direkten Effekten von Rentenreformen auf das Verhalten der Haushalte beobachten wir Ruckkopplungseffekte. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Verrentungsentscheidungen stark von den Anreizen und Parametern des Rentensystems wie dem gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalter, Zu- und Abschlagen und der Ersatzrate sowie dem Zinssatz beeinflusst werden. Diese Entscheidungen haben Auswirkungen auf die Makrookonomie, was wiederum Ruckkopplungen durch Gleichgewichtseffekte auf Zinssatze und Lohne bewirkt. Insgesamt haben die diskutierten Reformszenarien starke Folgen fur die Nachhaltigkeit des Rentensystems. Unser Modellrahmen kann dazu verwendet werden, die Reformvorschlage nach mehreren Kriterien zu bewerten und somit Politikempfehlungen zu begrunden.

Endogenous Retirement Behavior of Heterogeneous Households Under Pension Reforms

We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model is built and endogenous retirement decisions are explicitly modeled within a public pension system. Heterogeneity with respect to consumption preferences, wage profiles, and survival rates is embedded in the model. Besides the expected direct effects of these reforms on the behavior of households, we observe that feedback effects do occur. Results suggest that individual retirement decisions are strongly influenced by numerous incentives produced by the pension system and macroeconomic variables, such as the statutory eligibility age, adjustment rates, the presence of a replacement rate, and interest rates. Those decisions, in turn, have several impacts on the macro-economy which can create feedback cycles working through equilibrium effects on interest rates and wages. Taken together, these reform scenarios have strong implications for the sustainability of pension systems. Because of the rich nature of our unified model framework, we are able to rank the reform proposals according to several individual and macroeconomic measures, thereby providing important support for policy recommendations on pension systems.