Endogenous Money Research Articles

Bitcoin: an alternative to fiat money? A post-Keynesian perspective

Motivation: This paper addresses the ongoing debate surrounding Bitcoin’s potential to function as an alternative to state-issued fiat currencies. With the advent of Bitcoin and its increasing global prominence, it is essential to explore its viability, particularly in light of its formal adoption in El Salvador as legal tender. The limited supply and decentralized nature of Bitcoin present a significant departure from traditional monetary systems, which raises questions regarding its capacity to fulfill the roles of money under Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).Aim: The primary goal of this paper is to critically examine whether Bitcoin can serve as a functional replacement for fiat money. Using a post-Keynesian analytical framework, this study investigates Bitcoin’s ability to meet the requirements of sovereign money, particularly within the theoretical framework of MMT. The analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s decentralized issuance, limited supply, and its role in fiscal policy and credit creation.Materials and methods: This research employs a critical literature review and a case study analysis, using the framework of MMT and post-Keynesian endogenous money theory to assess Bitcoin’s economic implications and its real-world application in El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law. The study analyzes Bitcoin’s economic implications based on the endogenous money supply model and evaluates its impact on government fiscal policy, credit markets, and economic stability in both theoretical and practical contexts, with a special focus on El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law.Results: The analysis reveals significant limitations in Bitcoin’s ability to function as a fiat currency. Its rigid supply and speculative nature hinder its capacity to serve as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account, as envisaged by MMT. The study concludes that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and deflationary design pose challenges for its broader adoption as state money, particularly in managing aggregate demand and economic crises.

The Monetary Theory of Production and the Supermultiplier: What Determines Savings?

ABSTRACT The paper presents a closed-economy stock-flow consistent model aimed at outlining the natural synthesis between two fundamental pillars of the post-Keynesian approach: the supermultiplier (SM) model and the monetary theory of production based on the notion of endogenous money. Such integration allows the defining of the whole economic mechanism describing the financing of autonomous components and investments, as well as the determination of output and saving within a monetary economy of production. Our contribution argues that the endogenous money theory plays a non-ancillary role within the SM approach. By comparing different scenarios describing the financing of autonomous components of demand and investments (bank loans, retained profits, CB, and equity emissions), we point out that the endogenous process of money creation is the only structural mechanism through which the autonomous components can exist and be independent of current income, and Keynesian causality materializes in the long-run. In general, it is the initial finance of investments and autonomous components through endogenous money that allows them to be ex-post founded by household saving. Conversely, the initial finance through the existing stock of wealth, although it does not intact the investments-saving causality, can be considered only a temporary spin-off of the endogenous money process.

Production Structures and Fluctuations in the Money Supply: An Analysis Based on Marx’s Concept of Set-Free Money Capital

In chapter 15 of volume 2 of Capital, Marx introduced the concept of set-free money capital during the turnover process of industrial capital, positing its role in the credit system. Saros further formalized this process, suggesting that set-free money capital could serve as loanable funds, impacting the credit system. This article advances this research by making three significant contributions. Firstly, it offers a more succinct formalization of the turnover process, improving pedagogical clarity. Secondly, it reinterprets the significance of set-free money capital within the modern credit money system using post-Keynesian endogenous money theory, linking production directly to the money supply. Lastly, it demonstrates through simulations that production structure influences the periodic fluctuations of set-free money capital at the macro level, affecting the money supply. JEL Classification: B51, E32, E51

Debt-credit Flows and Stocks in a Supermultiplier Model with Two Autonomous Demand Components: Consequences for Growth

ABSTRACT Allain [2022. ‘A Supermultiplier Model with Two Non-Capacity-Generating Semi-autonomous Demand Components.’ Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 63: 91–103] raised the question of how two or more non-capacity-generating autonomous demand components growing at different rates may coexist in the supermultiplier, avoiding that one component absorbs all the others in the long-run steady-state. To date, the theoretical shortcut adopted in the literature has been to assume that, at least as long-term averages, the different components grow at the same rate or that institutional elements kick in to tackle this issue. Differently, we propose a solution that resorts to endogenous feedback effects and stock-flow consistent relations to solve such issues. More specifically, we build a simple supermultiplier model in which growth is driven by workers’ debt accumulation as well as rentiers’ consumption out of interest. We show that, according to specific conditions, there is a steady-state solution in which growth ultimately converges towards that of the fastest growing component, but the other does not disappear due to the presence of the mentioned endogenous stock-flow relations. This provides a way out of the two-component issue, with endogenous money creation surrounding this process of growth driven by credit provided to households.

Is CBDC undermining the Process of Money Creation?

ABSTRACT Several policymakers and academic works have been discussing the nature of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as well as its debated relationship with crypto-assets. CBDC would allow the private (non-financial) sector to access the central bank’s reserves. Given its superior hierarchy in the money spectrum, CBDC adoption could trigger a strong or mild conversion from deposits, depending on its design, with strong impacts on the assets and liabilities composition and magnitude of different actors. The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics related to the transmigration process from deposits to CBDC as well as the process of money creation through a detailed step-by-step analysis, tracking the transactions between the institutions involved in its adoption. It underlines the validity of the endogenous money theory (EMT) in describing those transactions while clarifying the maintenance of the commercial banks’ vital role in the process of money creation, in a world with the emergence of CBDC.

A bankszabályozás lehetőségei és korlátai az endogén pénzelmélet keretében

The article questions whether the current system of bank regulation can guarantee that banks are subject to a hard budget constraint. We use the framework of post-­Keynesian endogenous money theory. Banks deposit loans in companies’ bank accounts, and no external source is needed for the transaction, so banks can in principle create an unlimited amount of money if there is a demand for credit. However, banks’ ability to create money is limited by a number of factors. Using János Kornai’s concept of a soft budget constraint we analyze the factors that cause inherently soft budget constraints for banks. We point out that neither monetary policy, nor the profit goals of banks, nor the banks’ internal risk management practices would guarantee that banks face a hard budget constraint. This must be imposed on them by an external factor, the banking regulation. However, the current system of banking regulation is not well suited to do this, so the soft budget constraint is inherent to banking. This contributes to the fact that banking crises are natural part of the financial system.

Schumpeter and the post‐Keynesian monetary theory

AbstractThe name of Schumpeter is not among those of the precursors of post‐Keynesian monetary theory. This seems understandable when considering Schumpeter's ferocious criticism of The General Theory. However, in recent years various authors have highlighted significant points of contact between Schumpeter's monetary theory and that of Keynes and of post‐Keynesians. The objective of this work is not only to indicate the similarities between Schumpeter's monetary theory and that of the post‐Keynesians, but rather to show that Schumpeter's approach to money and credit allows making post‐Keynesian monetary theory more solid. In particular, we will show that Schumpeter's monetary theory enables to develop an explanation of the principle of effective demand sounder than that based on the simple presence of endogenous money and on the liquidity preference theory.

Fiscal Supermultiplier and Endogenous Money in the United States: The COVID-19 Pandemic vs. the Global Financial Crisis*

ABSTRACT The paper examines different real-monetary dynamics and policy responses during the COVID-19 pandemic (C19P) and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in the United States through the lens of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model and the endogenous money approach. On the one hand, the C19P triggered a relatively deeper contraction in GDP, but its recovery was relatively faster and more robust. The ‘V’ shaped recovery from the C19P significantly contrasted the ‘L’ shaped trajectory of the post-GFC period. On the other hand, the money supply (M2) grew relatively more, and the monetary base expanded relatively less during the C19P. To explain these different real-monetary dynamics, a theoretical framework is developed and analyzed empirically for the United States. The theoretical model and the empirical analysis suggest that money supply is endogenously determined by creditworthy demand derived from the multiplier-accelerator effect of non-capacity generating autonomous demand, in which government spending plays a key role. Therefore, the absence of full hysteresis after the C19P shock had nothing to do with a traditional neoclassical trend reversal mechanism but with the fiscal supermultiplier effect of the extraordinary pandemic-related government spending.

Finance, Financial Adjustments and Alternative Closures in Neo-Kaleckian Models: The Paradoxes of Thrift and Costs in the Long-Run

ABSTRACT Heterodox economists debate if Keynesian/Kaleckian or Marxian/Harrodian results apply in the long-run. This paper explores different financial mechanisms in neo-Kaleckian models with the: (1) traditional closure of an endogenous utilisation rate; and, (2) supermultiplier closure where the utilisation rate is restored to its normal degree in the long-run. Keynesian/Kaleckian results are obtained regardless of the assumptions on the utilisation rate. Attention is also given to circuitist intra-period endogenous money financing relations, and to financial adjustments that increase the elasticity of household portfolio adjustments and firm liability-side management.

The rise of the red dragon: the non-binary political economy of decentralised public banks

ABSTRACT This article scrutinises China’s unexpected economic ascent as an industrial dynamo despite an underdeveloped institutional framework, driven by a fusion of the Currency and Banking School arguments. Our discourse focuses on the reorganisation of endogenous money in post-Communist China, which significantly fortified the domestic economy. We employ a two-tiered framework, firstly linking the Currency vs. Banking School debate to the crucial role of domestic bank credit creation in economic development. Subsequently, we anchor this within the context of the post-Mao reforms, illustrating how ‘inside money’ is deployed in a top-down manner to real industry via a bottom-up and decentralised organisational design. The emergent Chinese political economy is in our view defined by the amalgamation of neo-statist and neo-liberal credit market policies. We detail the transformative effect of evolving domestic commercial banking trends, thereby shaping a distinctive post-Communist society.

Reforming the Eurozone financial system: A system-dynamics approach

The effectiveness of the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) in maintaining (price) stability in the eurozone is assessed using a system dynamic model. The model combines a neoclassical growth model with a stock-flow representation of the eurozone financial sector at a high level of aggregation. With endogenous money creation, the multidirectional relationship between asset prices and net income, and also the dual causality of both liquidity and investment relative to interest rates as the main features of the model, the developments of the past 50 years can be understood and extrapolated to 2050.The simulation experiments indicate that the current pro-cyclic system is inherently unstable. This instability can only be overcome by monetary policy that eases and tightens the total amount of money in the system in a countercyclical manner. An obvious way to achieve this is the introduction of 100% Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This calls for the ECB's mandate to become the sole "monetary authority" that creates and controls the amount of money in the system, with the sole and unambiguous objective of price stability. Money creation to achieve price stability at a targeted level of inflation with simultaneous repayment of public debt varies between €200 billion and €500 billion per year. This money can be channelled into the real economy through the EU's governance structure and spent on tax cuts and/or direct public investments, for example in physical and social infrastructure.

Keynes’ Finance Circuit model on banks in Africa

AbstractSince the publication of Keynes General Theory in 1936 when Keynes developed an original Finance Circuit model which was subsequently enriched by the post-Keynesian theory of endogenous money supply, no study has undertaken Keynes Finance Circuit model complete causality tests. The present paper breaks new ground and aims at filling the above lacuna by employing Granger non-causality test for heterogeneous panel data models to investigate the above model based on a sample of 32 African countries, for the period from 1990 to 2021. Our results lend support to the complete Keynes Finance Circuit model in the short run. In the long run, all causalities are vindicated except the causal relationship running from economic growth to savings which appears insignificant. In terms of policy implication, we are encouraging policymakers to design policies that will stimulate economic growth within a post-Keynesian endogenous money supply framework.

A Short Period Sraffa-Keynes Model for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy

ABSTRACT This paper develops a short period, one sector, Sraffa-Keynes model that can be used for the evaluation of various recommendations outlined in the Post Keynesian monetary policy literature. The model is characterised by the principle of effective demand, Sraffa or target-return pricing (which integrates the determination of key distributive variables and allows for short run cyclical variation in prices), conflict inflation, endogenous money and a basic approach to monetary policy in the Smithin–Wray tradition of fixing the policy rate to achieve low or specified rates of unemployment. The model is calibrated to the Australian economy and subjected to two standard macroeconomic shocks, a demand shock and a cost shock. After each shock, the economy returns to long period equilibrium characterised by the achievement of the target rate of return, desired capacity utilisation and Sraffian prices of production. Active monetary policy that targets employment, reduces the depth and duration of recessions in this model compared to a ‘park-it’ approach but at the cost of increased volatility in income distribution. Flexible prices (where firms respond to the additional costs of running the capital stock at other than full capacity) are shown to have similar effects to monetary policy.

Computational Analysis of the Properties of Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Systems

Computational Analysis of the Properties of Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Systems

The Validity of Keynes’ Preference for Liquidity Principle in the Endogenous Money Supply Thesis among Post-Keynesians

The Validity of Keynes’ Preference for Liquidity Principle in the Endogenous Money Supply Thesis among Post-Keynesians

Limits to Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

ABSTRACT In this paper we investigate the impact of the balance-of-payments constraint on output, income distribution and policy space in a small economy open to both commercial and financial flows. We do so by extending a Sraffian supermultiplier growth model to consider current and capital accounts and endogenous money. Expansionary fiscal policies increase output and its long run growth rate but have a negative impact on the balance-of-payments. Based on these results, we derive the value of government spending that maximises output while maintaining external equilibrium. Monetary policy also influences the balance-of-payments by attracting foreign financial flows through higher interest rates. This relationship is non-monotonic, since these flows can finance the external deficit resulting from a high output level but can also lead to a greater interest burden. This trade off allows us to find the level of the interest rate that maximises external space. It also implies that, with limits, raising interest rates might allow for higher real wages. Lastly, we examine the effects of the currency denomination of debt. We find that, in case of a depreciation, debt in domestic currency allows for a less contractionary adjustment than foreign currency-denominated debt but does not lead to higher economic growth.

A Note on Capital in a Functional Analysis of the Traditional Banking Industry

ABSTRACT A functional analysis of the traditional banking industry is developed in this paper. Following a reflection on the possibility of conceiving a ‘banking production cycle’, its fundamental output is identified in credit and the input in deposit. The study then continues with an analysis of capital: the anticipated capital required for banking is solely equity capital and is mainly dependent on economic-institutional aspects. This paper then studies how regulation, rules and laws can define a ‘regulatory banking production technique’. Starting from the assumption of economies of scale in the banking sector, the scheme developed by the Basel Accords imposes a level of equity capital proportional to the level of risk-weighted banking assets. Therefore, a relationship between capital and output defined by these rules is conceivable, and the idea of ‘normal capacity utilisation’ in the banking sector becomes possible. Through the latter idea, the possible limitation of money supply by capital requirements can be overcome, thus validating the endogenous money approach.

Endogenous money, soft budget constraint and the banking regulation

AbstractA key observation of the endogenous money theory is that banks create deposits (money) by lending. This means that banks apparently face soft budget constraint in responding to demand for credit. However, there are several limiting factors, which can make the banks' money creation somewhat constrained, and can thus harden their budget constraint. Such factors include the need to preserve banks' profitability and the bank regulations (the capital and liquidity requirements). Previous literature on soft budget constraint (SBC) in banking mentioned government bailouts, central banks lender-of-last-resort policies, or the poorly informed depositors who over-finance banks, as reasons for the SBC for banks. Taking the endogenous money theory as a starting point, we use a different approach. We analyze whether the tools that aimed to keep the bank's budget constrain hard are appropriate for this purpose. Our analysis, as well as lessons from several recent bank crisis episodes suggest, that under current banking regulation SBC is an inherent feature of banking.

Money and Credit Coexistence, Excess Capacity, and the Size of Monetary Aggregates

AbstractThis paper develops a model where money is demanded in excess of spending needs. As a result, money coexists with large availabilities of credit and the model explains the levels of monetary aggregates held in modern economies via the endogenous creation of inside money. At the heart of the model, there is a search friction in the goods market, which generates spare production and spending capacity. As a consequence, there is an endogenous productivity wedge, due to spare production capacity, and an endogenous money velocity, due to spare spending capacity.

A Functional Analysis of the Role of Deposits in the Traditional Banking Industry

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a functional analysis of the input of the traditional banking sector in an endogenous money framework. Although banks create bank money, central bank money (or reserves) cannot be produced by banks, which require it as an input. Deposits are the cheapest source of central bank money already in the system, so it can be argued that deposits serve as inputs for the banking industry. Nevertheless, for individual banks it is necessary to draw some distinctions between deposits corresponding to liquidity injection and pure accounting entries that are generated by the creation of loans. Furthermore, the role of bank bonds is discussed, in the context of whether they function more as equity or as deposits. Unlike other industries, it is hypothesised that the functional role of bank bonds is very different from that of equity, and it is rather a different form of bank funding of liquidity, with some advantages and disadvantages compared to deposits. Finally, a brief comparison is pursed between this analysis of the traditional banking sector and the simpler study of other financial intermediaries.