End Game Research Articles

Beyond soft balancing: small states and coalition-building in the ICC and climate negotiations

The role of small states has been largely neglected in research on the process and outcome of multilateral negotiations. Even though these states may be active in the agenda-setting processes or display a specific engagement in certain thematic aspects of negotiations, in the end game the outcome of negotiations has been perceived to be dependent on the bargaining between major powers. However, small states also have strategies at their disposal to compensate for these weaknesses. Two principal ones come to mind, prioritization or niche diplomacy, and coalition-building to join forces with like-minded states in order to draw on their resources, expertise and manpower. In the article, we compare two cases of small state coalitions in multilateral negotiations, namely the Like Minded (LM) group in the negotiations that led to the establishment of the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in United Nations climate negotiations. While the two coalitions resort to similar strategies, they have not been comparably successful. We will show that the ability to translate discursive power into measurable effects on outcomes ultimately depends on the institutional setting of the negotiations and the nature of the issue that coalitions are tackling.

Rminimax: An Optimally Randomized MINIMAX Algorithm

This paper proposes a simple extension of the celebrated MINIMAX algorithm used in zero-sum two-player games, called Rminimax. The Rminimax algorithm allows controlling the strength of an artificial rival by randomizing its strategy in an optimal way. In particular, the randomized shortest-path framework is applied for biasing the artificial intelligence (AI) adversary toward worse or better solutions, therefore controlling its strength. In other words, our model aims at introducing/implementing bounded rationality to the MINIMAX algorithm. This framework takes into account all possible strategies by computing an optimal tradeoff between exploration (quantified by the entropy spread in the tree) and exploitation (quantified by the expected cost to an end game) of the game tree. As opposed to other tree-exploration techniques, this new algorithm considers complete paths of a tree (strategies) where a given entropy is spread. The optimal randomized strategy is efficiently computed by means of a simple recurrence relation while keeping the same complexity as the original MINIMAX. As a result, the Rminimax implements a nondeterministic strength-adapted AI opponent for board games in a principled way, thus avoiding the assumption of complete rationality. Simulations on two common games show that Rminimax behaves as expected.

Paul Ridker: reaching the end game

Paul Ridker: reaching the end game

Telomere end processing: unexpected complexity at the end game: Figure 1.

Most human cells lack telomerase, the enzyme that elongates telomeres. The resulting telomere erosion eventually limits cell proliferation and tissue renewal, thereby impacting age-dependent pathologies. In this issue of Genes & Development, a technical tour-de-force by Chow and colleagues (pp. 1167-1178) reveals a highly choreographed sequence of events that processes newly replicated chromosome ends into mature telomeres. This sheds new light on an underappreciated contribution to telomere dynamics that may be as important as telomerase in dictating the correlation between life span and telomere length.

Call for Papers—Service Science Special Issue on Cloud Computing as a Service

[Excerpt] Cloud computing is a new way of delivering computing services. The flexibility, scalability, and cost-effectiveness of cloud computing provides tremendous business opportunities to customers. The related customer expectation, however, poses daunting challenges to cloud service providers, whether they are traditional data centers or fresh players in the arena. These practical challenges raise new research questions to communities that are either computer science oriented or service science oriented. Performance analysis and service management are required to be knitted together for the success of the end game.

Focused Peer Review: The End Game of Peer Review

The aim of this report is to describe the authors' experience with expanding the routine peer-review process to include misdiagnoses from all sources and the use of focused peer review (FPR) in faculty accountability and management. A department-wide routine peer review was conducted. Each radiologist was assigned 12 cases per month. In addition, clinically reported errors, missed diagnoses discovered outside the routine peer-review process, were identified. Cases were scored from 1 to 5. The department quality office evaluated cases with scores of 3 and 4 from both sources for further processing with FPR, a multistep continuation of the peer-review process using a tracking document. Once initiated, FPR was processed by seeking comments from the division director and the interpreting radiologist. In some cases, FPR was discontinued before completion. Completed FPR documents were submitted to the department chair for administrative action, ranging from no action to termination. All FPR cases are presented at monthly departmental morbidity and mortality conferences. Routine peer review was done on 1,646 cases from a total of about 300,000 studies by 31 radiologists. Thirty-five cases from the two sources with scores of 3 and 4 were analyzed, 21 from the routine peer review and 14 clinically reported errors. The quality officer initiated 25 FPRs, rejecting 10 because errors were not considered significant. Further scrutiny lead to dropping 7 of the 12 routine and 2 of the 13 cases with clinically reported error. Sixteen FPRs were completed, 5 (31%) from routine peer review and 11 (69%) from clinically reported errors. For these 16 completed FPRs, management decisions were made by the department chair. Processing of routine peer-review data together with cases of clinically reported error strengthens the peer-review process. Focused peer review can effectively contribute to the surveillance and management of faculty performance for improved patient care.

Is the US–Afghan Strategic Partnership in Doldrums?

As the search for the Afghan ‘end game’ has intensified in the United States, a Strategic Partnership Deal (SPD) entailing a limited but long-term presence of US forces in Afghanistan is seen as a crucial cornerstone to prevent the return of Afghanistan to the pre-9/11 days. A series of incidents such as the burning of the copy of the Holy Quran and the massacre of civilians at the hands of an American sergeant has yet again thrown the US ‘exit strategy’ into disarray. In the ensuing negotiations over the contentious conditionalities, the recent incidents have worked into tilting the balance in favour of President Hamid Karzai, a shift that could have telling effects on just not on the future US-Afghan relationship but also for the overall prospects of peace and stability in the war-torn country.

Poliovirus Neutralization Test with Poliovirus Pseudovirus To Measure Neutralizing Antibody in Humans

We complement Arita et al. ([1][1]) for their development of a safe, simple, and rapid test, employing poliovirus pseudovirus (generating luciferase signals) instead of the wild poliovirus, to measure the poliovirus neutralizing antibody titer in human serum. Apart from the end game of the global

A structuralist perspective on economic growth in China and India: anticipating the end game

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine a much‐overlooked aspect of the rise of China: when will it end? Obviously, the Chinese economy will not grow at an annual rate of 10 percent forever. At some point Chinese growth will stabilize. When is of vast importance for the political, economic, and ecological future of the world.Design/methodology/approachData from the World Development Indicators database are used to benchmark the recent economic growth of China (and India) to the long‐term trajectory of Brazil. A structuralist approach derived from world‐systems analysis predicts that Chinese growth will stabilize once China reaches an equilibrium income level characteristic of the semiperiphery of the world‐economy.FindingsBased on recent trends, the structuralist perspective suggests that China's extraordinary rate of economic growth will fall back to global norms after 2020. China is unlikely to reach US or EU levels of total national income before mid‐century.Research limitations/implicationsThe research presented here is highly speculative. The data are of very poor quality and the assumptions are quite heroic. That said, the China 2020 prediction is relatively robust to variations in data and assumptions.Social implicationsThe rise of China is unlikely to have much impact on the structure of the modern world economy or the continuation of US hegemony for the foreseeable future, and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions may be less than anticipated.Originality/valueThis study will hopefully open a debate about planning for the end game of rapid Chinese economic growth.

Youth Opinions of Tobacco Control in New Zealand: Support for Specific Measures and the Relationship With Smoking Behaviors Among 14-15-Year-Olds

The purpose of this study was to assess the attitudes of young people toward tobacco control and explore the association between these attitudes and both smoking intentions and behavior. The study used data from a national survey of 14- and 15-year-old students in New Zealand (NZ) investigating tobacco use and attitudes. Attitudes to tobacco control were assessed using student responses to 7 statements relating to specific tobacco control measures; outdoor smoking bans, increased and hypothecated tax, display bans, plain packaging, and reduced access. Analysis was conducted on a final sample of 24,495 students aged 14-15 years. Chi-square testing was used to determine group differences in smoking status and attitudes toward tobacco control measures, while logistic regression was used to test associations between youth attitudes and both smoking susceptibility and current smoking. Our results demonstrate youth support for tobacco control interventions in NZ. Commercial access measures received the most support, while plain packaging and display bans were the least supported measures among young people. Young people's attitudes toward tobacco control measures were found to be associated with smoking behavior; those who were opposed to measures were more likely to be susceptible to smoking or be current smokers. Young people in NZ have opinions when it comes to tobacco control, and it is important to investigate these when developing tobacco control policies that are aimed to have an effect on this demographic. The results provide evidence to support the proposed "end game" strategies currently being considered in NZ.

Automated Finance: The Assumptions and Behavioral Aspects of Algorithmic Trading

Automated trading now dominates the financial markets. Yet no philosophy of academic research into the topic exists. As the growth in automated trading suggests their greater returns and predictability, this paper examines stability and statistical control of trading process outputs as method of justifying predictions of future performance. New assumptions presented can form a foundation for positive research under this revolutionary paradigm, one almost completely ignored in the financial literature. The traditional financial literature rests on the assumption of normality of inputs, while trading systems aspire to the more rigorous engineering standard of justification. The end game is that now behavioral aspects, not of traders but of trading system research and development projects, drive market returns.

TSV Market Drivers, Demand & Product Readiness

The market has narrowed its approach and solidified its direction for the majority of 2.5 and 3D TSV product technologies. Forecasts have now become real for these technologies and the end game realized as evidenced by production launch of the Xilinx Virtex-7. This talk will discuss market trends, anticipated product launch dates as well as general capacity needs as the market begins to rollout these new products.

Insights from next generation sequencing of the cancer genome

This detailed review provides a history and update of the complex field of cancer genetics. Using examples of progress such as the development of imatinib for chronic myeloid leukemia (which stemmed from the recognition of the Philadelphia chromosome in the 1960s), Michael Stratton, Director of the Sanger Institute in Cambridge is confident that we are now entering the end game of cancer genome sequencing. This has led to other drug therapies, based on knowledge of the molecular changes in some cancers, lung and breast cancers for example.

The polio-eradication programme and issues of the end game

Poliovirus causes paralytic poliomyelitis, an ancient disease of humans that became a major public-health issue in the 20th century. The primary site of infection is the gut, where virus replication is entirely harmless; the two very effective vaccines developed in the 1950s (oral polio vaccine, or OPV, and inactivated polio vaccine, or IPV) induce humoral immunity, which prevents viraemic spread and disease. The success of vaccination in middle-income and developing countries encouraged the World Health Organization to commit itself to an eradication programme, which has made great advances. The features of the infection, including its largely silent nature and the ability of the live vaccine (OPV) to evolve and change in vaccine recipients and their contacts, make eradication particularly challenging. Understanding the pathogenesis and virology of the infection is of major significance as the programme reaches its conclusion.

European Consensus and the Evolutive Interpretation of the European Convention on Human Rights

The European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) should be an instrument of development and improvement rather than an “end game” treaty which froze the state of affairs that existed 60 years ago. At the same time, evolutive interpretation should not be tantamount to arbitrary interpretation. This paper seeks to explain how the European Court of Human Rights (“ECtHR”) strikes a balance between development and stability.

Beware the Idle Title

Beware the Idle Title

International Financial Reporting Standards: To Be or Not to Be?

“When evaluating approaches to incorporating IFRS into the U.S. financial reporting regime—or reporting regime in any country—it is important that investors consider the end game.”

Case Challenges: What Would You Do?

Is a tragically bad result simply unavoidable or were there choices along the way that might have lead to success? At what point does a difficult case require a maximally aggressive approach and, by contrast, when should the surgeon abandon hope of conventional success and recommend arthrodesis or amputation? Three cases highlight the end game scenario in knee arthroplasty surgery and the difficulty in knowing when a successful reimplantation is unlikely, when ambitious surgery puts the patient's life at risk, and when the remaining options are only: permanent resection arthroplasty, arthrodesis, or amputation.

Hostage to Fortune? ‘Downpayments’ and the Future of the Doha Round

Having recognised that the completion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations during 2011 is unfeasible, governments and the WTO Director-General are exploring whether a ‘downpayment’ on the Round could be negotiated before the December 2011 WTO Ministerial Conference. The initial indications are not promising. Worse, as argued here, a downpayment coupled with a retroactive revocation clause are unlikely on their own to change the politics of trade policy in the major trading nations. This makes the signing of the final deal no easier unless something alters the calculus of senior government leaders and establishes a credible end game for the negotiation.

Development of a Poliovirus Neutralization Test with Poliovirus Pseudovirus for Measurement of Neutralizing Antibody Titer in Human Serum

In the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, laboratory diagnosis plays a critical role by isolating and identifying poliovirus (PV) from the stool samples from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases. In recent years, reestablishment of PV circulation in countries where PV was previously eliminated has occurred because of decreased herd immunity, possibly due to poor vaccination coverage. To monitor the vulnerability of countries to PV circulation, surveillance of neutralizing-antibody titers against PV in susceptible populations is essential in the end game of the polio eradication program. In this study, we have developed a PV neutralization test with type 1, 2, and 3 PV pseudoviruses to determine the neutralizing-antibody titer against PV in human serum samples. With this test, the neutralizing-antibody titer against PV could be determined within 2 days by automated interpretation of luciferase signals without using infectious PV strains. We validated the pseudovirus PV neutralization test with 131 human serum samples collected from a wide range of age groups (ages 1 to >60 years) by comparison with a conventional neutralization test. We found good correlation in the neutralizing-antibody titers determined by these tests. These results suggest that a pseudovirus PV neutralization test would serve as a safe and simple procedure for the measurement of the neutralizing-antibody titer against PV.