Employment Effects Of Changes Research Articles

What is the effect of changing eligibility criteria for disability benefits on employment? A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from OECD countries.

Restrictions in the eligibility requirements for disability benefits have been introduced in many countries, on the assumption that this will increase work incentives for people with chronic illness and disabilities. Evidence to support this assumption is unclear, but there is a danger that removal of social protection without increased employment would increase the risk of poverty among disabled people. This paper presents a systematic review of the evidence on the employment effects of changes to eligibility criteria across OECD countries. Systematic review of all empirical studies from OECD countries from 1990 to June 2018 investigating the effect of changes in eligibility requirements and income replacement level of disability benefits on the employment of disabled people. Studies were narratively synthesised, and meta-analysis was performed using meta-regression on all separate results. The systematic review protocol was registered with the Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (Registration code: PROSPERO 2018 CRD42018103930). Seventeen studies met inclusion criteria from seven countries. Eight investigated an expansion of eligibility criteria and nine a restriction. There were 36 separate results included from the 17 studies. Fourteen examined an expansion of eligibility; six found significantly reduced employment, eight no significant effect and one increased employment. Twenty-two results examined a restriction in eligibility for benefits; three found significantly increased employment, 18 no significant effect and one reduced employment. Meta-regression of all studies produced a relative risk of employment of 1.06 (95% CI 0.999 to 1.014; I2 77%). There was no firm evidence that changes in eligibility affected employment of disabled people. Restricting eligibility therefore has the potential to lead to a growing number of people out of employment with health problems who are not eligible for adequate social protection, increasing their risk of poverty. Policymakers and researchers need to address the lack of robust evidence for assessing the employment impact of these types of welfare reforms as well as the potential wider poverty impacts.

The Impacts of Lower Natural Gas Prices on Jobs in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

The recovery of the U.S. manufacturing sector following the 2008-2009 economic recession coincided with a sharp drop in natural gas prices. To determine whether a causal connection in fact exists, we use confidential plant-level data for 1972-2012 to estimate the employment effects of changes in natural gas and other energy prices. Previous analyses have used aggregated data and failed to control for multiple drivers of employment dynamics, such as other input costs. We show that controlling for these factors substantially diminishes the effects of natural gas and electricity prices on manufacturing employment. Accounting for the direct effects of natural gas prices as well as the indirect effects via electricity prices, we estimate that the decline in natural gas prices between 2007 and 2012 raised overall manufacturing employment by 0.6 percent, and for gas-intensive industries, by 1.8 percent.

Changes in Global Trade Patterns and Women's Employment in Manufacturing: An Analysis Over the Period of Asianization and Deindustrialization

The purpose of this study is to explore the employment effects of changes in manufacturing output resulting from shifting trade patterns over the period 1995-2006. For 30 countries (21 OECD and 9 non-OECD countries) we estimate the changes in embodied labor content due to trade using factor-content analysis, breaking up the sources of these changes between trade with the North, the South and China. We also decompose changes in employment into its component changes within and across sectors. Our results present a net negative impact of trade on total employment in 30 countries over the period of analysis (despite employment gains in 17 countries). Except for the Philippines and the Republic of Korea, trade with China has a negative impact on total employment in all countries, with a stronger negative effect on women’s employment. Employment losses in the South due to a surge in imports from China are coupled with declining exports to the North, as many countries in the North shift their imports to emerging economies in Asia. Decomposition results indicate that the decline in the share of women’s employment is mainly due to shifts between sectors rather than changes within sectors. Changes in women’s employment are still highly dependent on movements in “traditional” manufacturing sectors, including food, textiles, and wearing apparel.

Capital investment and employment in the information sector

Estimation of the employment effects of changes in capital investment is a standard tool in public policy debates. Typically, such predictions are based on employment multipliers derived from Input–Output analysis. In this paper, we measure the employment effects of changes in capital investment in the U.S. information sector by econometrically estimating an “employment multiplier” from historical data. The estimated multiplier is 10 information sector jobs for each million dollars in expenditure, and perhaps 24 new jobs per million dollars invested across the entire economy. Employment multipliers derived from the Input–Output methodology average about 16 jobs per million, but the multiplier includes jobs outside the information sector. Including employment spillovers, our estimates suggest the multipliers from Input–Output models are plausible. We also note that information sector jobs have substantially higher median earnings than the private sector average, so the economic significance of changes in information sector employment are greater than might first appear. Our findings may be useful in debates over changes in industry regulation that could affect investment.

Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment: A Cross-National Analysis

The authors estimate the employment effects of changes in national minimum wages using a pooled cross-section time-series data set comprising 17 OECD countries for the period 1975–2000. The average effects they find are consistent with the view that minimum wages cause employment losses among youths. However, the evidence also shows considerable variation across countries. In particular, disemployment effects of minimum wages appear to be smaller in countries that have subminimum wage provisions for youths. Regarding other labor market policies and institutions, the authors find that more restrictive labor standards and higher union coverage strengthen the disemployment effects of minimum wages, while employment protection laws and active labor market policies designed to bring unemployed individuals into the work force help to offset these effects. Overall, the disemployment effects of minimum wages are strongest in the countries with the least regulated labor markets.

Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment:
 A Cross-National Analysis

We estimate the employment effects of changes in national minimum wages using a pooled cross-section time-series data set comprising 17 OECD countries for the period 1975-2000, focusing on the impactof cross-country differences in minimum wage systems and in otherlabor market institutions and policies that may either offset or amplify the effects of minimum wages. The average minimum wage effects we estimate using this sample are consistent with the view that minimum wages cause employment losses among youths. However, the evidence also suggests that the employment effects of minimum wages vary considerably across countries. In particular, disemployment effects of minimum wages appear to be smaller in countries that have subminimum wage provisions for youths. Regarding other labor market policies and institutions, we find that more restrictive labor standards and higher union coverage strengthen the disemployment effects of minimum wages, while employment protection laws and active labor market policies designed to bring unemployed individuals into the work force help to offset these effects. Overall, the disemployment effects of minimum wages are strongest in the countries with the least regulated labor markets.

Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment: A Cross-National Analysis

We estimate the employment effects of changes in national minimum wages using a pooled cross-section time-series data set comprising 17 OECD countries for the period 1975-2000, focusing on the impact of cross-country differences in minimum wage systems and in other labor market institutions and policies that may either offset or amplify the effects of minimum wages. The average minimum wage effects we estimate using this sample are consistent with the view that minimum wages cause employment losses among youths. However, the evidence also suggests that the employment effects of minimum wages vary considerably across countries. In particular, disemployment effects of minimum wages appear to be smaller in countries that have subminimum wage provisions for youths. Regarding other labor market policies and institutions, we find that more restrictive labor standards and higher union coverage strengthen the disemployment effects of minimum wages, while employment protection laws and active labor market policies designed to bring unemployed individuals into the work force help to offset these effects. Overall, the disemployment effects of minimum wages are strongest in the countries with the least regulated labor markets.

Accounting for the employment effects of changes in trade

Simple “accounting” methods have been used to estimate the effects of changes in trade on sectoral employment. Using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model with Canadian data for 1972 and 1980, this article examines an accounting method first employed in a Brookings study by Charles Frank. The results suggest that despite the criticism it has received, this method provides a reasonable way of assessing the change in employment attributable to changes in imports.

Employment effects of changes in transportation infrastructure: methodological aspects of the gravity model

Employment effects of changes in transportation infrastructure: methodological aspects of the gravity model

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE: METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE GRAVITY MODEL

ABSTRACT Assessing the employment effects of changes in transport infrastructure, such as the construction of the Channel Tunnel or high‐speed rail connections, is not an easy task. The gravity model is sometimes used to analyse changes in the potentials of the regions concerned. One step further would he the translation of changes in potentials into changes in employment per region. This paper will he devoted to analysing some properties and limitations of such a translation process. Special attention is paid to an operational model developed by Evers et al. (1987) for this purpose. It is shown that this model is “almost” consistent with the theory of locational behaviour of firms.

The Employment Effects of Changes in the Structure of UK Trade

This article uses a 22‐industry breakdown of the UK manufacturing sector to examine the effects on employment of various changes in the structure, but not the overall level, of exports, imports, and trade balances within an input‐output framework. The analyses reported relate to greater specialisation in trade, faster structural adjustment and import substitution. The results show both the industrial pattern and overall net effect of employment changes and the distinction is made between the direct employment consequences of changes in the trade balances of the industries concerned and induced employment changes via derived demands for intermediate inputs.

An Investigation of the Local Employment Multiplier

IN the examination of economic relations one frequently encounters circumstances in which a general effect may be observed to flow from some action; but frequently the means have not been developed to the point where the major variables may be satisfactorily understood or the effects adequately measured. In the investigation of cause and effect relations in small geographical areas which are interdependent parts of a larger area this appears to be the case. Here one senses, and can observe to some extent, the disturbances accompanying or following some activity, such as a shift in the schedule of local exports (e.g., due to a newly located plant), but techniques have not generally been developed to the point which would bring some exactness and accuracy to the measurement of such changes. It is this problem with which this paper is concerned. An examination will be made of some statistical evidence of the local employment multiplier in Lancaster County, Nebraska. Attention will be focused upon the relationship of changes in employment (i.e., employment sustained by an inflow of external receipts) to changes in total employment in this area. Some attention has been given by investigators to factors affecting regional income and employment and economic growth. The most fruitful approach seems to lie in the application of aggregate income and multiplier techniques to the area under investigation. However, data on local income, expenditures, and money-flows are meager and exceedingly difficult to measure. Additionally, the complex interrelationships of income, investment, exports, and imports make examination of causal relationships among these variables extremely precarious. The first difficulty seems to have led some investigators to use the more accessible employment data. The latter obstacle, of course, is not removed by this means. The original Kahn multiplier was an employment multiplier; and Keynes's income multiplier would tend to be identical with the employment multiplier under certain conditions.' Colin Clark's studies of the relationship of foreign trade and national income led to an analysis and estimate of the foreign trade multiplier.2 Local employment multiplier analysis narrows the scope to an examination of the total local employment effects of changes in employment in nonlocalized (export) industries. Put most simply, the hypothesis states that an increase in nonlocalized employment will increase total local employment by an amount greater than the initial increase in employment (thus a multiplier coefficient greater than i.oo).3 The area examined for veidence of a local employment multiplier was theLincoln, Nebraska metropolitan area. The limits of the

Primary Effects on Employment of Shifts in Demand from Domestic to Foreign Products

T HIS paper presents some results of a Brookings Institution study of the effects on domestic employment of unilateral reductions of United States import barriers. The study was undertaken to provide quantitative information which would be useful in the formation of economic policy. It was necessary, at a number of points, to make arbitrary assumptions and, about some points, assumptions contrary to those commonly made. These were made only where no empirical basis for better ones was available. Because of these assumptions, as well as those implicit in the general technique used, the results cannot be taken as precise. I believe, nevertheless, that they come much closer to the mark than any made hitherto. Where the evidence in support of alternative assumptions was inconclusive and the bias involved in the alternatives could be identified, I deliberately chose the assumption that involved the greater adverse effect upon employment. Thus any error in the estimates is in the direction of overstating adverse If a reduction of import barriers affects output and employment in the liberalizing country at all, it does so by shifting domestic demand from domestic products toward competing foreign products. It is not necessary to state in detail the long-run effects of such a shift, for here we are concerned only with short-run These are primarily: i. A decrease in the outputs of the domestic commodity whose protection is reduced and of the commodities and services that enter immediately or remotely into its production. These two decreases in output, called respectively direct and indirect, make up the effect. crease of the U.S. propensity to import, called the export effect. 3. The further effects on domestic goods and services of changes in consumption, investment, and government expenditure resulting either from domestic income changes caused by output changes or from price changes, called the domestically effects. 1 4. The further effects on exports resulting from changes in imports by income changes caused by (3), called induced export effects. The full study will present estimates of primary effects and first export This paper presents only the estimates of the primary These estimates do not include any offsetting employment effects of changes in exports. The estimates in this paper are not estimates of the employment effects of any specific program of import liberalization. Such estimates would require two broad steps: First, estimating the resulting shift of expenditures from domestic to foreign goods and second, estimating the employment effects of that shift. Such estimates involve two difficulties. One is that there is no satisfactory empirical basis for taking the first step. That shift depends upon the price elasticities of supply and demand for each commodity concerned, both at home and abroad. I believe that Howard Piquet, who did estimate import increases, would agree that the best one can do is to make an informed guess.2 Second, such an estimate of employment effects would be valid only for one out of an infinite number of possible liberalization programs. I believe that these two considerations make it not worth while to attempt the first step in this