Empirical Patterns Research Articles

Ex Ante Construction of Flow Pattern Maps for Pulsating Heat Pipes

A novel methodology is proposed for the development of empirical flow pattern maps for pulsating heat pipes (PHPs), which relies on the concept of virtual superficial velocity of the liquid and vapour phases. The virtual superficial velocity of each phase is defined using solely the design and operational parameters of the pulsating heat pipe, allowing the resulting flow pattern map to serve as a predictive instrument. This contrasts with existing flow pattern maps that necessitate direct measurements of temperatures and/or velocities within one or more channels of the pulsating heat pipe. Specifically, the virtual superficial velocities are derived from the relative significance of the driving forces and the resistances encountered by each phase during flow. The proposed methodology is validated using flow visualisation datasets obtained from two separate experimental campaigns conducted on flat-plate polypropylene pulsating heat pipe prototypes featuring transparent walls and meandering channels with three turns, five turns, seven turns, and eleven turns, respectively. The PHP prototypes were tested for gravity levels ranging between 0 g and 1 g and heat inputs ranging from 5 W to 35 W. The proposed approach enables the identification of empirical boundaries for flow pattern transitions as well as the establishment of an empirical criterion for start-up.

Maternal Dietary Patterns During Pregnancy and Child Autism-Related Traits in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes Consortium

We examined relationships between prenatal dietary patterns and child autism-related outcomes, including parent-reported clinician diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS-2) scores, in up to 6084 participants (with analytic samples ranging from 1671 to 4128 participants) from 14 cohorts in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) consortium. Associations between quartiles of the Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2015), the Alternative Healthy Eating Index modified for Pregnancy (AHEI-P), and the Empirical Dietary Inflammatory Pattern (EDIP), calculated based on reported prenatal diet, and outcomes were examined using crude and multivariable regression (quantile for SRS scores and logistic for diagnosis). In adjusted models, the higher quartile of prenatal HEI score was associated with lower SRS scores (Q4 vs. Q1 β for median quantile = −3.41 95% CI = −5.15, −1.26). A similar association was observed for the AHEI-P score when adjusting for total calories (Q4 vs. Q1 β = −2.52 95% −4.59, −0.45). There were no significant associations of prenatal diet with ASD diagnosis. Findings from this large U.S.-based study do not suggest strong associations between prenatal dietary patterns and ASD-related outcomes, although subtle associations with broader traits suggest the need to further consider how prenatal diet may relate to ASD-related phenotypes.

Relationship between Diet-Related Inflammation and Hospitalization Risk and Disease Severity in Patients with COVID-19

Background: Increased serum concentrations of inflammatory biomarkers in patients indicate a strong association between COVID-19 and inflammation. However, the association between diet-related inflammation and COVID-19 has been less investigated. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the inflammatory scores of the diet are associated with the severity of COVID-19 disease and the probability of hospitalization of patients. Methods: The authors conducted a cross-sectional study involving 141 patients with COVID-19. The empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) and dietary inflammation scores (DIS) were calculated based on a 147-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. The association between serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers and diet-related inflammation was also investigated. Results: 74 inpatients and 87 outpatients participated in this study. Higher DIS scores were significantly associated with an increased risk of COVID-related hospitalization (Tertile3 vs. tertile1: OR = 3·62; 95 % CI 1·43 to 9·14, P=0·008 after fully adjustment). This association with EDIP was also observed, but it was not significant. Conclusion: The data from this provide evidence that a pro-inflammatory diet was associated with higher risk of hospitalization due to high severity of COVID-19.

Investigating the response of urban surface thermal environment to urban morphology changes in Nanjing

The urbanization process has significantly impacted urban morphology, which in turn has led to changes in the urban surface thermal environment (USTE). A summarization of the empirical patterns of past urban morphology changes and an evaluation of the USTE effects produced by different patterns will contribute to the advancement of scientific knowledge regarding the response of USTE to urban morphology changes and facilitate the development of sustainable urban planning and design practices. This study investigated the response of USTE to urban morphology from the overall and local based on the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) framework during 2005–2020 in Nanjing. The results validated the rationality of the LCZ framework for describing urban morphology changes and their USTE responses. It was found that the overall USTE was continuing to deteriorate, with an increase in high temperature and sub-high temperature areas. LCZ 4, LCZ 5, and LCZ 8 were the major contributors to overall urban heat, and their growth in the amount and changes in USTE characteristics mainly caused the overall USTE deterioration. In localized areas, it was found that urban regeneration had the most potential to optimize USTE. The conversion processes of LCZ 5 to LCZ 4, LCZ 8 to LCZ 4, and LCZ 8 to LCZ 5 were considered more advantageous in improving daytime USTE, which should be advocated. The results can provide important insights into the perception of urban morphology and USTE, and support the urban regeneration policies for climate-resilient cities from the environmental performance perspective.

Empirical dietary inflammatory pattern could increase the odds of breast cancer: a case-control study

BackgroundIt has been shown that chronic inflammation is a significant factor in cancer development and progression. The current study aimed to investigate whether a higher score on the empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP), which indicates a more pro-inflammatory diet, is related to higher odds of breast cancer in Iranian women.MethodsIn the present case-control study, subjects in the case (n = 133) and control (n = 265) groups were chosen from the hospitals in Tehran, Iran. The cases consisted of women with newly diagnosed breast cancer, while the controls were selected from other parts of the same hospital and had no history of cancer or hormone therapy. Individuals whose reported energy intake deviated by three standard deviations above or below the mean energy intake of the population were excluded from the study. A reliable and valid semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to determine the participants’ dietary intake. Additionally, the association between breast cancer and EDIP was evaluated by logistic regression analysis in both crude and adjusted models.ResultsThe median scores of EDIP in the case and control groups were 0.65 and 0.61, respectively. The findings also indicated that, in the adjusted model, the odds of developing breast cancer significantly increased in the last tertile of EDIP compared to the first tertile (odds ratio (OR) = 1.859; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.059–3.265; P = 0.031). Additionally, after adjusting for potential confounders, higher odds of breast cancer were observed in the last tertile of EDIP compared to the first tertile in postmenopausal women (OR = 2.516; 95% CI: 1.081–5.856; P = 0.033).ConclusionsThe current study indicated that individuals with a higher pro-inflammatory diet score were more likely to develop breast cancer.

Spatiotemporally weighted regression (STWR) for assessing Lyme disease and landscape fragmentation dynamics in Connecticut towns

Understanding the landscape determinants that escalate Lyme disease (LD) risk through various times and regions is vital for appraising disease susceptibility and shaping precise intervention and prevention strategies. This research introduces a novel data-driven framework to identify potential indicators from an extensive array of potential variables. We then deployed an advanced spatiotemporal weighted regression (STWR) model to investigate how landscape fragmentation metrics correlate with the spatiotemporal variability of LD incidence rate in Connecticut towns. We proposed a data-driven filtering framework to select five variables from a large data pool. The analysis unveils that LD incidence rates exhibit heightened sensitivity to proportional or exponential shifts in landscape fragmentation; logarithmic and squared transformations of landscape metrics shed light on lesser effects and venue for potential parabolic relationships. Observations also disclose significant spatial trends, showing elevated LD incidence rates in locales with vast, uninterrupted deciduous forests, alongside contributions from wetland ecosystem-related variables to the rise in disease occurrence. Compared with Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), the STWR model proved more potent and reliable with higher R2 and lower estimated standard errors (SE). The STWR model is highly flexible in terms of spatiotemporal variations in data. The STWR results further reversely indicate the changes made by the Center for Disease and Prevention (CDC) in the case classification of LD in 2008. The integration of data-driven and model-driven approaches in this study delivers a robust framework that combines empirical pattern detection with theoretical insight, enhancing the robustness and predictive power of ecological studies.

The Impact of Different Types of Trees on Annual Thermal Comfort in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Areas

Trees positively improve the annual thermal comfort of the built environment in tropical areas, where climate change is slight throughout the year. However, for areas with high changes in climate all year, the current studies have only explored the summer cooling performance of trees without the impact of different types of trees on annual thermal comfort, especially in cold seasons. Therefore, to quantify the impacts and scientifically guide the optimization of green space layout in hot summer and cold winter areas, this study selected Changsha City as the study area and analyzed how the annual thermal comfort is affected by evergreen trees and deciduous trees, which are two common types of trees in hot summer and cold winter areas. The analytical results indicated that the difference in the effect of deciduous and evergreen trees on outdoor thermal comfort was insignificant in summer, where the difference in the monthly mean PET for the three summer months was slight, being 0.28 °C, 0.14 °C, and 0.29 °C, respectively. However, evergreen trees greatly exacerbated winter cold compared to deciduous trees, with a monthly mean PET decrease by nearly 1.0 °C and an hourly PET reduced by up to 3.57 °C. The difference is mainly attributed to the absorption and reflection of solar radiation by the tree canopy, as well as the cooling and humidifying effect of the tree leaf. In hot summer and cold winter areas, outdoor thermal comfort is still in the “comfortable” and “slightly warm” acceptable stage despite the warming effect of deciduous trees in the spring and autumn seasons. Planting evergreen trees is an inevitable thermal mitigation choice for tropical areas. However, for the areas with high annual climate change, such as hot summer and cold winter areas in China, a change in empirical tree planting patterns and selecting deciduous trees where appropriate will improve year-round outdoor thermal comfort.

Reducing the replication time for structural estimations: A successful replication of “An Anatomy of International Trade” using GPU computing

AbstractEaton, Kortum, and Kramarz (2011) (EKK) discovered empirical patterns from French manufacturing firms that a baseline firm heterogeneity model could not explain. The authors proposed and estimated a model that closely matches the patterns observed in French data. This paper successfully replicates their findings using author‐provided data, re‐implementing their algorithms in Python and leveraging graphics processing unit computing to significantly boost computational speed. Applying the model to Chinese manufacturing data, despite differences in context, showed that the model explains most observed patterns well.

The association between empirical dietary inflammatory pattern and risk of cancer and cancer-specific mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Current evidence indicates a correlation between the inflammatory potential of diet and the risk of cancer and cancer-specific mortality. This study aimed to assess the association between empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP), which has recently been designed based on the inflammatory potential of the diet, and the risk of cancer and cancer-specific mortality. A systematic literature search was conducted across the PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases from January 2016 to March 2024. A random effects model was used to calculate the pooled effect size (ES) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the Cochran Q test and the I 2 statistic. From the initial 229 records, 24 prospective cohort studies with 2,683,350 participants and 37,091 cancer incidence cases, as well as 20,819 cancer-specific mortality, were included in our study. Pooled results indicated a significant association between higher adherence to the EDIP and an increased risk of total cancer (ES: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15; I 2 = 41.1), colorectal cancer (ES: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.11-1.27; I 2 = 41.1), and liver cancer (ES: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.14-1.94; I 2 = 36.9). However, no significant association between increased adherence to the EDIP and an increased risk of ovarian or endometrial cancer was found. Furthermore, greater adherence to the EDIP was significantly associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality (ES: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.05-1.33; I 2 = 45.4). Our results showed that a diet with higher inflammatory properties is associated with an increased risk of cancer and cancer-specific mortality. PROSPERO registration no. CRD42024496912.

Liquidity Preference, Interest Rate Spread, and the Transformation of the US Financial System

This article examines empirical patterns of interest rate spreads between yields on long-term corporate bonds and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in the United States over the period from 1960 through 2023. Since the early 1980s, discernible patterns of interest spreads have emerged, revealing marked deviations in corporate bond yields from the FFR. We focus on financial market forces particularly arising from financial intermediaries in analyzing these patterns. To this end, the article develops a theoretical framework based on the concept of liquidity preference in Keynes’s 1937 papers and the works of Hyman Minsky and Victoria Chick. We also conduct cointegration analyses for corporate bond yields, the FFR, and financial intermediaries’ leverage ratios. Overall, our empirical results indicate that the relationship between the FFR and corporate bond yields—particularly with respect to their long-run relationship and interest rate markups—has markedly changed since the 1980s and is significantly affected by financial intermediaries’ asset/capital leverage ratios. As a policy implication, regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing the Federal Reserve Bank’s capacity to steer long-term rates and contain intermediaries’ balance sheet leverage, particularly those centered on risky asset trading to increase gains from price differentials, are required JEL Classification: B26, E11, E43, E52

Tradeoffs and synergies between social equity and environmental benefits in conservation

Conservation programs worldwide pursue social equity alongside environmental benefits and economic efficiency. When the spatial patterning of human diversity differs from the patterning of biological diversity, conservation planners face complex tradeoffs between social and biological objectives. Here, we quantify how these tradeoffs depend on the correlation between the spatial distributions of social and biological diversity. We used empirical patterns in the commonness and rarity of species to generate simulated landscapes with pre-defined correlations between biological diversity and human social diversity. Our analysis shows how tradeoffs between social equity and environmental benefits are unavoidable when human and biological diversity are negatively correlated. However, when human and biological diversity are strongly positively correlated, then biological and social priorities are congruent. In these settings, well-designed conservation programs may engender positive feedbacks between social equity and ecosystem services, enhancing both. Our analysis focused on distributional equity, but similar dynamics are likely to occur with procedural, recognitional and contextual equity. Given growing evidence that socially equitable conservation programs are more likely to be successful, our findings underscore the importance of carefully assessing the potential for conflicts and synergies between the social and biological goals of conservation programs.

Proinflammatory Diet Increases the Risk of Irritable Bowel Syndrome: A Prospective Study of 129,408 UK Biobank Participants and Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

Patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) often have chronic low-grade inflammation in the intestinal mucosa. Some dietary components are known to be associated with inflammation. However, there is currently limited research on the relationship between dietary inflammatory potential and the risk of IBS. A total of 129,408 participants in the UK Biobank were included in this study. Energy-Adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII) based on 26 nutrients and the Empirical Dietary Inflammatory Pattern (EDIP) based on 17 food groups were constructed, and on the basis of the tertiles, the continuous score was categorized into proinflammatory, neutral, and antiinflammatory categories. Associations between IBS and E-DII and EDIP were investigated by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Potential confounders including sociodemographic, lifestyle, body mass index (BMI), psychological state, type 2 diabetes, and thyroiditis were adjusted. In addition, subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were also performed. Finally, a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was employed to explore the independent causality of nutrients and dietary-derived serum antioxidants with IBS. In the cohort study, over a median follow-up period of 13.26years, 2421(1.87%) participants developed IBS. In the E-DII categories, after adjusting for the confounders, individuals in the proinflammatory diet category had a higher risk of IBS compared with the antiinflammatory category (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.28, p = 0.015, p trend = 0.017) and neutral category (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26, p = 0.030, p trend = 0.017). In the EDIP categories, after adjusting for the confounders, individuals in the proinflammatory diet category had a higher risk of IBS compared with antiinflammatory category (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.33, p = 0.002, p trend = 0.002) but no significant association compared with neutral category (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.99-1.23, p = 0.067, p trend = 0.002). In the MR analysis, genetically determined intake levels of 16 nutrients and 6 dietary sources of circulating antioxidants did not have a causal effect on IBS. Our findings indicate that proinflammatory dietary components are independent risk factors for IBS. However, there is no causal relationship between individual nutrient intake or serum antioxidants from dietary sources and IBS.

Anti-inflammatory diet mitigate cardiovascular risks due to particulate matter exposure in women during pregnancy: A perspective cohort study from China

BackgroundParticulate matter (PM) exposure during pregnancy may increase cardiovascular risk (CVR). However, the specific time windows of exposure contributing to this association and the potential biological mechanisms underlying it remain unclear. ObjectiveTo determine the sensitive time window for CVR related to PM exposure. We investigated whether levels of inflammatory biomarkers mediate the relationship between PM exposure and CVR, and examined the potential impact of an anti-inflammatory diet on this association. MethodsFrom 2015 to 2021, 9294 pregnant women from three Hefei hospitals were included. We used a 1 × 1 km satellite dataset to assess PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 exposure. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) were measured as inflammatory biomarkers. The empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) score, based on a validated food frequency questionnaire. The CVR score was calculated using five clinical metrics based on American Heart Association criteria. ResultsWe found a significant association between PM exposure and increased CVR score, especially during the 2nd to 8th weeks of the first trimester. For every increase of 10-μg/m3 of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, there was an associated increase in CVR of 0.51 (95%CI: 0.21, 082), 0.25 (95% CI: 0.11 to 0.39), and 0.29 (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.37), respectively. Mediation analysis revealed that the proportion of the association between PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 exposure and CVR mediated by inflammatory biomarkers was 24.3%, 22.4%, and 20.1%, respectively. Stratified analyses showed no positive correlation between PM exposure and CVR in the anti-inflammatory diet (low EDIP) group. The β coefficients were 0.52 for PM1 (95% CI: -0.06 to 1.11), 0.31 for PM2.5 (95% CI: -0.04 to 0.79), and 0.25 for PM10 (95% CI: -0.03 to 0.54). ConclusionsPM exposure, particularly during weeks 2–8 of pregnancy, correlates with CVR, partly mediated by levels of inflammatory biomarkers. An anti-inflammatory diet mitigates CVR associated with PM exposure.

Network Data Intrusion Detection and Data Feature Extraction of Electromechanical Facilities from Machine Learning

With the rapid development of Internet technology, network security issues have become more complex and changeable. Various intrusion methods threaten the information network environment in the Electromechanical Facility (EF) system. This paper focuses on EF to study the relevant detection methods and data feature extraction in complex network intrusions. Firstly, four common machine learning algorithms are used to calculate the data set. The advantages and disadvantages of each algorithm are analyzed after tuning and comparison. Secondly, a network intrusion detection algorithm is proposed based on Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) principal component analysis. It uses RFE to reduce the number of features and improve the elimination judgment index to align with the detection requirements of information network datasets. Finally, a fault diagnosis method is proposed based on empirical pattern decomposition and support vector machine under Renyi entropy complexity measurement. This method trains and identifies the Renyi entropy of several basic pattern components obtained by decomposing empirical patterns as feature vectors. The results show that the RFE method judged by random forest removes irrelevant features, and the evaluation index is improved to align with the network dataset’s detection requirements. It reduces the data dimension, reduces the operation time, and improves the accuracy of a few attack types. The comprehensive final detection effect is better than other algorithms. Additionally, the embedded operating system construction method based on the protection mechanism realizes the separate storage of the operating system and key data. Also, it can prevent the network system from being maliciously invaded, ensuring the stability of the instrument operation under harsh working conditions.

Dynamic Market Making with Asymmetric Information and Market Power

Abstract We study the dynamics of trading volume and bid-ask spread using a multiperiod trading model with oligopolistic market makers. Traders smooth out their trading even though they are not strategic, and thus trading persists after the arrival of information or liquidity shocks. Traders act quickly on their private information while postponing hedging trades until later periods. The market power of market makers enables them to widen bid-ask spreads when trading incentives are heightened. Consequently, both trading volume and bid-ask spread may exhibit U-shaped patterns. Our model calibration aligns with the empirical intraday patterns observed in bid-ask spreads and trading volumes. (JEL D53, D61, D82, G12, G14, G18)

The association of dietary inflammatory indices and mortality in patients with cirrhosis: a cohort based study

Dietary intake has an undeniable role in the development and progression as well as the prevention and treatment of cirrhosis. This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the association between dietary inflammatory indices and total mortality in patients with cirrhosis. A total of 166 outpatients with cirrhosis who were diagnosed within the last 6 months were followed up for 48 months in this cohort study. A 168-question valid food frequency questionnaire was used to evaluate dietary intake. Accordingly, the dietary inflammatory index (DII), empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) and dietary inflammatory score (DIS) were calculated. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated through cox proportional hazards regression models for an association of cirrhosis mortality and three dietary inflammatory indices. After full adjustment for confounders, the results showed that mortality risk increased significantly with increasing dietary inflammatory indices. Compared to the first tertile, the risk of mortality due to cirrhosis was associated with 4.8 times increase in the third tertile of DII (HR = 4.8, 95% CI = 1.1–19.8, p trend = 0.029), 3.3 times in the third tertile of EDIP (HR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.3–8, p trend = 0.004), and 2.2 times increased in the third tertile of DIS (HR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1–4.7, p trend = 0.032). The results of the present study indicated a significant association between dietary inflammatory indices and total mortality among patients with cirrhosis. Additional research is necessary to confirm our findings.

Macroscale vertical power-law distribution of bacteria in dark oceans can emerge from microscale bacteria-particle interactions

Microbes in the dark oceans are a key determinant of remineralization of sinking carbon particles. However, most marine ecosystem models overlook how microbes aggregate on particles and the microscale interactions between particle-associated microbes, making it difficult to obtain mechanistic insights on their vertical power-law decay pattern. Here, we present a spatial population model where the attachment and detachment processes of bacterial cells depend on local density of particle-associated bacteria. We show that the power-law relationship can emerge when the non-random aggregated distribution of bacteria is considered without any depth-specific environmental parameters. Furthermore, the comparison between model behavior and empirical patterns in the Pacific and Southern Ocean indicated that temperature-dependent hydrolysis rate and nutrient-dependent sinking rate of particles are key parameters to explain the regional variations of the power-law exponent. The mechanistic approach developed here provides a pathway to link micro-scale interactions between individuals to macro-scale food chain structures and carbon cycle

Association between Inflammatory Dietary Pattern and Mammographic Features

BackgroundThe empirical dietary inflammation pattern score (EDIP), which measures the ability of the diet to regulate chronic inflammation, is associated with both higher adiposity and breast cancer (BC) risk. Mammographic density (MD) is an important risk factor for BC. ObjectiveWe examined the associations between EDIP and mammographic features overall and stratified by menopausal status, and assessed the extent to which these associations are mediated by adiposity. MethodsWe included 4145 participants without BC in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. Cumulative average EDIP was assessed by food frequency questionnaires every 4–6 y. We assessed MD parameters (percent MD, dense area, and nondense area) and V (measure of grayscale variation). MD parameters were square-root transformed. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were used to analyze the associations between EDIP score and MD parameters. Baron and Kenny’s regression method was used to assess the extent to which the associations of EDIP and mammographic traits were mediated by BMI. ResultsIn multivariable-adjusted models, EDIP was significantly inversely associated with percent MD [top compared with bottom quartile, β = –0.57; 95% confidence interval (CI): –0.78, –0.36]. Additional adjustment for BMI attenuated the association (β = –0.15; 95% CI: –0.34, 0.03), with 68% (β = 0.68, 20; 95% CI: 0.54, 0.86) mediation via BMI. In addition, EDIP was positively associated with nondense area after adjusting for BMI and other covariates. No associations were observed for dense area and V measure. Results were similar when stratified by menopausal status. ConclusionsEDIP score was inversely associated with percent MD and positively associated with nondense area, and these associations were largely mediated by BMI.

Protests

Citizens have long taken to the streets to demand change, expressing political views that may otherwise be suppressed. Protests have produced change at local, national, and international scales, including spectacular moments of political and social transformation. We document five new empirical patterns describing 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020. First, autocracies and weak democracies experienced a trend break in protests during the Arab Spring. Second, protest movements also rose in importance following the Arab Spring. Third, protest movements geographically diffuse over time, spiking to their peak before falling off. Fourth, a country's year-to-year economic performance is not strongly correlated with protests; individual values are predictive of protest participation. Fifth, the United States, China, and Russia are the most overrepresented countries in academic studies. We discuss each pattern's connections to the existing literature and anticipate paths for future work.

The association of a low-inflammatory diet with the trajectory of multimorbidity: a large community-based longitudinal study

BackgroundA proinflammatory diet has been associated with a risk of individual chronic diseases, however, evidence on the association between inflammatory dietary patterns and the trajectory of chronic disease multimorbidity is sparse. ObjectivesWe aimed to investigate the associations of a low-inflammatory diet with the multimorbidity trajectory. MethodsWithin the UK Biobank, 102,424 chronic disease-free participants (mean age 54.7 ± 7.9 y, 54.8% female) were followed up to detect multimorbidity trajectory (annual change in the number of 59 chronic diseases). Baseline inflammatory diet index (IDI) and empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) were separately calculated from the weighted sum of 32 posteriori-derived (15 anti-inflammatory) and 18 prior-defined (9 anti-inflammatory) food groups, and tertiled as low-, moderate-, and high-inflammatory diet. Data were analyzed using linear mixed effects model, Cox model, and Laplace regression with adjustment for potential confounders. ResultsDuring the follow-up (median 10.23 y), 15,672 and 35,801 participants developed 1 and 2+ chronic conditions, respectively. Adherence to a low-inflammatory diet was associated with decreased multimorbidity risk (hazard ratio [HRIDI] = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.86; HREDIP = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.94) and a slower multimorbidity accumulation (βIDI = −0.033, 95% CI: −0.036, −0.029; βEDIP = −0.006, 95% CI: −0.010, −0.003) compared with a high-inflammatory diet, especially in participants aged > 60 y (βIDI = −0.051, 95% CI: −0.059, −0.042; βEDIP = −0.020, 95% CI: −0.029, −0.012; both P-interactions < 0.05). The 50th percentile difference (95% CI) of chronic disease-free survival time was prolonged by 0.81 (0.64, 0.97) and 0.49 (0.34, 0.64) y for participants with a low IDI and EDIP, respectively. Higher IDI and EDIP were associated with the development of 4 and 3 multimorbidity clusters (especially for cardiometabolic diseases), respectively. ConclusionsA low-inflammatory diet is associated with a lower risk and slower accumulation of multimorbidity (especially in participants aged > 60 y). A low-inflammatory diet may prolong chronic disease-free survival time.