Empirical Data Research Articles

Социодемографические детерминанты индивидуальной переоценки склонности к проэкологическому поведению

<p>The overestimating effect of one's tendency and contribution to pro-environmental practices, and underestimating the pro-environmental behavior of others has been noted recently in cross-country studies. The present work is devoted to a detailed post-hoc analysis of the available empirical data on this effect on the Russian sample (N = 109, M<sub>age</sub> = 28.3, SD<sub>age</sub> = 10.4, 39% men) and identification of the role of socio-demographic variables (gender, age, income, employment, size of city) as its predictors. The analysis showed that the nature of the contribution of the variables under consideration to the respondents' self-estimation and estimation of others with respect to pro-environmental behavior is non-consistent, which is in line with recent studies. On average for all models and statistically significant determinants, the standardized coefficient ???? does not exceed ∓0.25, which formally corresponds to a small effect size. However, given the empirical distribution of effect size typical of social psychology, it is more likely to be medium effects. The prediction power of linear models based on individual socio-demographic characteristics also turns out to be low, the coefficient of determination varies from 0.02 to 0.11. Therefore, it is acceptable to speak about the considered variables as predictors except in relation to resource saving and eco-mobility. The conclusion is made that along with socio-demographic determinants it is necessary to include other predictors in the design of experiments and investigate them more deeply.</p>

THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL DILEMMAS OF DEFINING THE CONCEPT OF INNOVATION

Innovations can take the form of implementing a modernised process, method or practical solutions in an enterprise, aimed at achieving specific benefits in the economic and social sphere. Innovations are related to specific changes in various functional areas of the organisation, including personnel. The cognitive purpose of the publication is to present the concept of innovation based on selected – national and foreign – literature on the subject. The goal of the research was to identify how innovations are defined in economic practice, especially in relation to the personnel area. The research problem was focused on obtaining an answer to the question regarding the perception of the concept of innovation in the personnel area. It was assumed that innovation in the personnel area is understood as the implementation of an improved process, method or solutions in the enactment of the personnel function. The empirical data was obtained using a survey technique with the use of a questionnaire. Empirical research was characterised by: subject, object, time and research space. The most important findings indicate that almost half of the respondents perceive innovation as a process, method or solution in the implementation of the personnel function. The conclusions from the research boil down to the statement that the Schumpeterian concept (promoting the understanding of innovation as the first application of a given invention in economy) turned out to be a rather distant concept for contemporary practitioners.

Mathematical simulation of duration and frequency of water consumption by various water dispensers

Water flow rates calculated by using deterministic models and methods do not describe the real variability in the water supply operation. This problem can be solved by mathematical simulation. The stochastic nature of the water consumption process implies involves random variables with certain distribution laws describing the main process components, namely intensity, duration and frequency.This paper discusses the mathematical simulation of the duration and frequency of water consumption by the most common types of water dispensers (kitchen sink and bathtub faucets (shower cubicle), toilet bowl with flush tank, washing machine and dishwasher).Purpose: The aim of this work is to evaluate and substantiate theoretical laws of the water consumption by the most common types of water dispensers as well as the frequency (probability) of their daily use.Research findings: The duration and frequency are determined for water consumed by various water dispensers using water supply systems of buildings. The empirical data are analyzed. Mathematical simulation method is proposed and justified for the water consumption process.

How do governments respond to the social-ecological traps in small-scale fisheries and aquaculture? A case study in the Tam Giang lagoon, Viet Nam.

Governments play crucial roles in addressing social-ecological traps - situations where feedbacks between social and ecological systems lead to reinforcement between resource degradation and livelihood impoverishment. While it is widely recognized that resolving these traps necesitates integrated measures, empirical studies often focus on the impact of individual measures. This paper investigates all measures employed by the local government to address traps in small-scale fisheries and aquaculture and examines how these measures contribute to solving the traps. Based on empirical data from the Tam Giang lagoon, Central Viet Nam, it finds that the goverment develops measures that align with "good practices" which focus on both ecological and social challenges. Yet, in practice, it prioritizes addressing ecological challenges over the social ones. The government primarily directs resources and efforts toward combating resource degradation. Measures that tackle the high dependency on fisheries resources and lack of alternative livelihoods are often sidelined. These practices fail to address the key drivers and reinforceing feedbacks that create the social-ecological trap. The paper highlights gaps between science, policy and practice in addressing social-ecological traps. Bridging these gaps and transforming government responses to the traps require effective communication of scientific knowledge to the government; facilitation of collaborations among researchers, policymakers, managers and practictioners; provision of financial support to the goverment and addressing the lack of political will of the government.

Failure strength of glacier ice inferred from Greenland crevasses

Abstract. Ice fractures when subject to stress that exceeds the material failure strength. Previous studies have found that a von Mises failure criterion, which places a bound on the second invariant of the deviatoric stress tensor, is consistent with empirical data. Other studies have suggested that a scaling effect exists, such that larger sample specimens have a substantially lower failure strength, implying that estimating material strength from laboratory-scale experiments may be insufficient for glacier-scale modeling. In this paper, we analyze the stress conditions in crevasse onset regions to better understand the failure criterion and strength relevant for large-scale modeling. The local deviatoric stress is inferred using surface velocities and reanalysis temperatures, and crevasse onset regions are extracted from a remotely sensed crevasse density map. We project the stress state onto the failure plane spanned by Haigh–Westergaard coordinates, showing how failure depends on mode of stress. We find that existing crevasse data are consistent with a Schmidt–Ishlinsky failure criterion that places a bound on the absolute value of the maximal principal deviatoric stress, estimated to be 158±44 kPa. Although the traditional von Mises failure criterion also provides an adequate fit to the data with a von Mises strength of 265±73 kPa, it depends only on stress magnitude and is indifferent to the specific stress state, unlike Schmidt–Ishlinsky failure which has a larger shear failure strength compared to tensile strength. Implications for large-scale ice flow and fracture modeling are discussed.

Evaluation of Centrifugal Pump Availability Trends and Analysis

Centrifugal pumps are essential elements in industrial systems, facilitating fluid transfer and pressure generation across various applications. This study explores the vital task of evaluating centrifugal pump availability trends, focusing on three United Pumps crude delivery centrifugal pumps (P-90A, P-90B, and P-90C) over a span of seven years (2009-2015). With the use of derived equations and annual run-hours data from the facility's operations and maintenance database, the study ascertained the availability of the pumps. The findings and analysis showed that pumps P-90A and P-90B had significant decline in availability over the evaluation period (2009-2015), with P-90A finally failing in 2014. P-90C on the other hand, demonstrated relatively higher availability levels even though it was trending downward. The main cause of the decline in availability is attributed to the Original Equipment Manufacturers' decision to discontinue production of the pump model and its spares, which led to the substitution of locally made components for OEM parts. The study highlights the critical role, OEM support and its genuine spare parts play in optimising pump availability, reliability, and continuous operation—all of which prolong the pump's operating lifespan. It suggests improved methods, regular inspections, preventive maintenance, re-evaluating the quality of spare parts, and investigating replacement options. The study provides recommendations for improving pumping station performance and efficiency, based on empirical data and analysis, to industry stakeholders involved in crude oil delivery operations.

Adolescent Social Anxiety, School Satisfaction, Family Emotional Support, and School Absenteeism: Findings from Young-HUNT3 and Norwegian National Education Data

Background: Adolescents grappling with social anxiety may experience poor school satisfaction, resorting to school-related avoidance behaviors, exemplified by absenteeism, as a coping mechanism. Understanding the role of family support in alleviating the adverse effects of social anxiety on school satisfaction is imperative for fostering supportive educational settings. Although there is literature regarding how school satisfaction promotes positive adolescent outcomes, empirical knowledge on the interrelation between social anxiety, school satisfaction, and family emotional support is limited. This study investigates the association between social anxiety, family emotional support, school satisfaction, and school absenteeism within the theoretical framework of the stage-environment fit theory to offer insight into how family emotional support can moderate the influence of social anxiety on school-related outcomes. Methods: Utilizing a population-based sample of 1861 upper secondary school pupils from the Trøndelag Young Health study “Young-HUNT3 study”, we employed an index of moderated mediation to examine the role of family emotional support in moderating the association between social anxiety and school-related avoidance behavior related to school satisfaction. Results: Family emotional support had moderated mediation association for school absenteeism (β = 0.128, 95% CI 0.019, 0.278) and extracurricular activity (β = −0.003, 95% CI −0.008, −0.000). Conclusions: This urges further investigation into the specific mechanisms and individual differences influencing these relationships, aiming to deepen our understanding of adolescents’ experiences and inform comprehensive strategies for promoting their well-being within school communities.

Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014–16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone

ABSTRACT Background There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. Objectives The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. Methods We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014–2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. Results Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23–0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05–0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

The duality of global online labour platforms as restrictive‐expansive sites of workplace learning and skill development

AbstractThe paper analyses global online labour platforms (OLPs) through the lens of the Expansive‐Restrictive Learning Environments framework. The framework articulates a set of structural factors that enable or constrain workplace learning and development. The paper draws on multistakeholder, mixed‐method empirical data to illustrate how OLPs are emerging as learning environments, where new and reconfigured skills, learning practices, and new forms of learning support emerge in response to the radically distributed and fragmented nature of this work. Against portrayals of OLPs as places of deskilling work devoid of learning opportunities, the paper contributes a more nuanced understanding of the duality of OLPs as simultaneously restrictive and expansive. Three dualities of OLPs emerge from the study: (i) their espoused vision restricts organisational support for workforce development, yet stimulates self‐directed learning; (ii) their enacted workplace curriculum is patchy and opaque, yet offers novel structural features supporting learning and development; (iii) workplace learning practices in OLPs are autonomous, yet not atomised. The paper illustrates how structure and individual agency interact in OLPs to create and configure learning opportunities for workers and informs practitioners about the current learning and development features and practices in OLPs.

Analyzing the Implementation of Practicum Organic Compound Separation and Purification in the Chemistry Education Study Program

Students acquire various skills in the laboratory through scientific development practices such as demonstrations and experiments. The primary objective of this study is to gather empirical data regarding the implementation of organic compound separation and purification techniques at tertiary educational institutions to examine their efficacy as a proactive step to facilitate ongoing educational endeavors. The elements discussed include the practicum topics completed, the organic chemistry instruments and equipment possessed, how the practicum is conducted, and the problems and their resolutions. This study’s respondents included course instructors, chemistry lab assistants, and students previously attending practicum content. This study used a qualitative research methodology to analyze multiple chemistry education study programs across various locations in Indonesia. Data collecting methods include open-closed surveys, observation, and documentation. The findings indicated that the separation and purification practicum topic incorporates concepts related to separation and purification, employing extraction, chromatography, distillation, sublimation, and recrystallization techniques. Some chemistry education programs needed adequate instrumentation for organic chemistry. In addition, the wet laboratory practicum for separating and purifying the studied organic compounds are yet to be completed as per the planned topics. Green chemistry and project-based learning have been largely implemented in the practicum, but the micro-scale concept, which can help reduce practicum waste, are yet to be implemented. Inadequate tools and materials for the practicum, as well as inadequate reference materials, are some of the obstacles that hinder the practicum’s efficiency. Hence, there is a want for pragmatic instruments that can effectively cater to the demands of ongoing education. This practicum set should facilitate using green chemistry and micro-scale, focusing on minimizing pollution that can harm the environment. Keywords: practicum organic, compound separation, purification, chemistry education

Analyzing the Impact of Social Network Position on Firm Performance: A Comprehensive Study

This study attempts to clarify the complex relationship that exists between social networks and corporate performance by introducing price and selling capacities as well as trust as a mediating component. A structural equation model was created using the body of existing research as a basis, and 380 small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in Indonesia participated in a survey to provide empirical data. The results show that, in the absence of social network trust, the use of social media in the management process by itself has no effect on the performance of the company. It becomes clear that trust is a major accelerator for the growth of selling and pricing skills, which in turn improves company performance. The survey highlights how important selling and pricing skills are when it comes to using social media, especially when it comes to developing trust. Although the research mostly focuses on small-to-medium-sized businesses and offers insightful information, generalizability to other contexts should be handled cautiously. In order to improve selling skills and expand corporate networks, managers should proactively use social media to improve overall company performance. In conclusion, trust is shown to be a critical mediator between social networks and corporate performance, emphasizing the need for trust in utilizing social media for better management and overall business success.

Manufacturing Industry Resource Endowment Index and Its Big Data Model

This study aims to demonstrate the application of big data models in the evaluation of manufacturing competitiveness across different countries and economic entities. It involves analyzing algorithms and data structures, designing algorithms for evaluating manufacturing competitiveness suitable for different countries and economic entities, and providing algorithmic and theoretical support for building computer assessment models for manufacturing competitiveness in economic entities. The research adopts qualitative and quantitative methods, comparing and analyzing empirical data on manufacturing resource endowment and competitiveness in various countries, combining theoretical analysis and empirical data. By conducting a literature review and empirical research, relevant information and data are collected to establish the relationship between manufacturing resource endowment index and competitiveness. Through case studies and comparative research, this study explores the main factors affecting manufacturing competitiveness in different countries and their interrelationships. It confirms that the competitiveness of manufacturing industries in different countries is influenced by factors such as resource endowment. Further analysis quantifies the relationship between national manufacturing resource endowment and competitiveness, leading to the design of computer algorithms, data structures, and processing logic. The results demonstrate the significant role of resource endowment in manufacturing competitiveness, serving as a crucial basis for formulating comprehensive national strategies. The innovations of this study include: 1. Introducing the manufacturing resource endowment index as a key variable for evaluating competitiveness, enriching the content of competitiveness big data models. 2. Designing comprehensive data structures, algorithms, and processing logic for assessing manufacturing competitiveness from multiple perspectives. 3. In-depth analysis of the relationship and analytical methods between manufacturing strategies, resource endowment, and competitiveness, providing theoretical and model references for the design of computer big data operation platforms.

Barriers and enablers for externally and internally driven implementation processes in healthcare: a qualitative cross-case study

BackgroundQuality in healthcare is a subject in need of continuous attention. Quality improvement (QI) programmes with the purpose of increasing service quality are therefore of priority for healthcare leaders and governments. This study explores the implementation process of two different QI programmes, one externally driven implementation and one internally driven, in Norwegian nursing homes and home care services. The aim for the study was to identify enablers and barriers for externally and internally driven implementation processes in nursing homes and homecare services, and furthermore to explore if identified enablers and barriers are different or similar across the different implementation processes.MethodsThis study is based on an exploratory qualitative methodology. The empirical data was collected through the ‘Improving Quality and Safety in Primary Care – Implementing a Leadership Intervention in Nursing Homes and Homecare’ (SAFE-LEAD) project. The SAFE-LEAD project is a multiple case study of two different QI programmes in primary care in Norway. A large externally driven implementation process was supplemented with a tracer project involving an internally driven implementation process to identify differences and similarities. The empirical data was inductively analysed in accordance with grounded theory.ResultsEnablers for both external and internal implementation processes were found to be technology and tools, dedication, and ownership. Other more implementation process specific enablers entailed continuous learning, simulation training, knowledge sharing, perceived relevance, dedication, ownership, technology and tools, a systematic approach and coordination. Only workload was identified as coincident barriers across both externally and internally implementation processes. Implementation process specific barriers included turnover, coping with given responsibilities, staff variety, challenges in coordination, technology and tools, standardizations not aligned with work, extensive documentation, lack of knowledge sharing.ConclusionThis study provides understanding that some enablers and barriers are present in both externally and internally driven implementation processes, while other are more implementation process specific. Dedication, engagement, technology and tools are coinciding enablers which can be drawn upon in different implementation processes, while workload acted as the main barrier in both externally and internally driven implementation processes. This means that some enablers and barriers can be expected in implementation of QI programmes in nursing homes and home care services, while others require contextual understanding of their setting and work.

Citizen Satisfaction through the Development of a Sustainable Mobile Government Service Model — A Blended Approach through M-S-QUAL and EGAM Theories

This research examines the relationship between sustainable m-Gov services and citizen satisfaction with m-Gov services. A multidimensional conceptualisation of sustainable m-Gov services is defined to examine citizen satisfaction. The research model was tested using empirical data collected from 687 m-Gov service users through PLS-SEM. The results showed that service availability, contact, responsiveness, efficiency, and privacy significantly influenced m-Gov service quality. Mobile self-efficacy, perceived trust, and perceived functional benefit are critical for m-Gov adoption. However, perceived compatibility and perceived ability-to-use did not explain the m-Gov adoption. The findings of m-Gov service quality and m-Gov adoption interactions supported their role in predicting sustainable m-Gov services, thereby increasing citizen satisfaction. The outcome of this study is vital for government strategies, public administration, policymakers, and government service delivery literature and provides citizen-centric m-Gov services. Thus, the government and citizens adopting m-Gov services can benefit from the tested model towards increasing the sustainable offering of m-Gov services.

Water quality assessment using Bi-LSTM and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques

Assessment of water quality is imperative for informed decision-making, ecological preservation, and sustainable water resource management, particularly in light of escalating anthropogenic pollution. Traditional approaches often face complexities and inaccuracies in forecasting, necessitating advancements in modelling techniques. Machine learning methods, particularly deep learning, present promising avenues for accurate water quality estimation, albeit with challenges. This study aims to enhance water quality forecasting through the integration of deep learning, specifically Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) networks, with computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The objective is to address the limitations of existing methods by leveraging the synergies between deep learning and fluid dynamics simulations, thereby improving predictive accuracy and efficiency. By proposing a novel framework that combines Bi-LSTM networks with computational fluid mechanics, this study introduces an innovative approach to water quality assessment. The integration of these techniques offers a comprehensive solution to overcome the complexities inherent in traditional methods, promising greater reliability and efficiency in predicting water quality parameters. The study employs Bi-LSTM networks alongside CFD simulations to model contaminant movement and diffusion in water bodies, particularly focusing on the Yamuna River. Utilizing empirical data on Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), the framework aims to predict key factors influencing water quality. The ANSYS software, operating within a Windows environment, facilitates the execution of the proposed methodology. Evaluation of the proposed model demonstrates superior performance compared to traditional methods, exhibiting higher predictive reliability and lower margins of error. Through a comprehensive comparison study, the Bi-LSTM and CFD-based approach surpasses existing techniques in accurately forecasting water quality parameters, thus highlighting its efficacy and potential for practical application. The integration of Bi-LSTM networks with computational fluid dynamics presents a promising avenue for enhancing water quality evaluation. The study underscores the significance of leveraging advanced computational techniques to address the challenges associated with forecasting water quality, ultimately contributing to informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management.

Theories and practices of disability from the Global South: a critical anthropological perspective

“Critical disability studies” (CDS) is an interdisciplinary field of research that examines social, political, economic, racial, gendered and historical constructions of bodily non-normativity across different geopolitical areas and scales. Despite its diverse and multiple contributions and objectives, current research in critical disability studies has been described as mainly focusing on disability issues in the Global North and as having universalizing tendencies. In this context, intersubjective perspectives and empirical data offered by ethnographic works in medical and disability anthropology and related disciplines have been either in accord or tension with the broader field of CDS. On the one hand, this review article illustrates the many ways anthropologists have adopted various research perspectives to explore bodily non-normativity outside settings in the Global North. On the other, it shows the importance of research by anthropologists working on topics related to disability, as well as their recent fruitful collaborations with CDS scholars and approaches. By exploring these epistemological and empirical entanglements, this paper concludes that deeper engagements between CDS and anthropology, as well as a more thorough focus on the ethnographic analysis of bodily non-normativity, can open new creative routes for the analysis of disability in various world contexts.

Elicitation of Rank Correlations with Probabilities of Concordance: Method and Application to Building Management

Constructing Bayesian networks (BN) for practical applications presents significant challenges, especially in domains with limited empirical data available. In such situations, field experts are often consulted to estimate the model’s parameters, for instance, rank correlations in Gaussian copula-based Bayesian networks (GCBN). Because there is no consensus on a ‘best’ approach for eliciting these correlations, this paper proposes a framework that uses probabilities of concordance for assessing dependence, and the dependence calibration score to aggregate experts’ judgments. To demonstrate the relevance of our approach, the latter is implemented to populate a GCBN intended to estimate the condition of air handling units’ components—a key challenge in building asset management. While the elicitation of concordance probabilities was well received by the questionnaire respondents, the analysis of the results reveals notable disparities in the experts’ ability to quantify uncertainty. Moreover, the application of the dependence calibration aggregation method was hindered by the absence of relevant seed variables, thus failing to evaluate the participants’ field expertise. All in all, while the authors do not recommend to use the current model in practice, this study suggests that concordance probabilities should be further explored as an alternative approach for the elicitation of dependence.

Disparities in Access to Outpatient Surgery Related to Removal of Procedures from Medicare's Inpatient Only List.

We assessed the shift from inpatient to outpatient surgical care related to changes to the Inpatient Only List in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019. The extent to which procedures shift from the inpatient to outpatient setting following removal from Medicare's Inpatient Only List is unknown. Many health systems also encouraged a shift from inpatient to outpatient surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Assessing the relative change in outpatient surgical utilization for procedures removed from the Inpatient Only List during COVID-19 would provide empirical data on whether reimbursement policy changes or inpatient capacity needs during the pandemic were more likely to shift care from the inpatient to outpatient setting. We used administrative data from the PINC AI Healthcare Database across 723 hospitals to determine the within-facility relative change in outpatient vs inpatient procedural volume in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019 using a multivariable conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression model. We also assessed whether outpatient surgical utilization varied by race and ethnicity. Using a multivariable linear probability model, we assessed the absolute change in risk-adjusted 30-day complication, readmission, and mortality rates for inpatient and outpatient surgical procedures. In 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019 respectively, there was a 5.3% (95% CI, 1.4% to 9.5%) and 41.3% (95% CI 33.1% to 50.0%) relative increase in outpatient elective procedural volume. Outpatient procedural volume increased most significantly for hip replacement which was removed from the Inpatient Only List in 2020 (increase in outpatient surgical utilization of 589.3% (95% CI, 524.9% to 660.3%)). The shift to outpatient hip replacement procedures was concentrated among White patients; in 2021, hip replacement procedural volume increased by 271.1% (95% CI, 241.2% and 303.7%) for White patients and 29.5% (95% CI, 24.4% and 34.9%) for Black patients compared to 2019 levels. There were no consistent or large changes in 30-day complication, readmission, or mortality risk in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019. There was a modest increase in elective outpatient surgeries and a pronounced increase in outpatient orthopedic surgeries which were removed from the Inpatient Only List during the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilization of outpatient surgical procedures was concentrated among White patients.

The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.

Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease.

Implications of gene tree heterogeneity on downstream phylogenetic analyses: A case study employing the Fair Proportion index.

Many questions in evolutionary biology require the specification of a phylogeny for downstream phylogenetic analyses. However, with the increasingly widespread availability of genomic data, phylogenetic studies are often confronted with conflicting signal in the form of genomic heterogeneity and incongruence between gene trees and the species tree. This raises the question of determining what data and phylogeny should be used in downstream analyses, and to what extent the choice of phylogeny (e.g., gene trees versus species trees) impacts the analyses and their outcomes. In this paper, we study this question in the realm of phylogenetic diversity indices, which provide ways to prioritize species for conservation based on their relative evolutionary isolation on a phylogeny, and are thus one example of downstream phylogenetic analyses. We use the Fair Proportion (FP) index, also known as the evolutionary distinctiveness score, and explore the variability in species rankings based on gene trees as compared to the species tree for several empirical data sets. Our results indicate that prioritization rankings among species vary greatly depending on the underlying phylogeny, suggesting that the choice of phylogeny is a major influence in assessing phylogenetic diversity in a conservation setting. While we use phylogenetic diversity conservation as an example, we suspect that other types of downstream phylogenetic analyses such as ancestral state reconstruction are similarly affected by genomic heterogeneity and incongruence. Our aim is thus to raise awareness of this issue and inspire new research on which evolutionary information (species trees, gene trees, or a combination of both) should form the basis for analyses in these settings.