Emission Spikes Research Articles

How wealthy in natural resource leads environmental sustainability in developing economies? An empirical investigation

This study investigates the impact of income generated from natural resources on environmental sustainability and analyses the moderating role of institutional quality in carbon emissions function. An extensive dataset from 61 developing nations covering the years 2000–2018 has been taken, which uses a dynamic heterogeneous panel data model. Our study follows a rigorous methodology by applying the pooled mean group estimator. An extensive examination of the impacts over the short run and long run is possible using this method. This study reveals multifaceted findings: in the short run, the effect of institutional quality and natural resources revenues on carbon emissions is insignificant, implying that such factors have a relatively minor impact. The long-term examination reveals that income derived from natural resources causes a spike in carbon emissions, which causes environmental deterioration and climate change. Strong institutional quality can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of correlation between revenues from natural resources and carbon emissions, which have been observed. The study's moderating effect of natural resources richness, which gradually reduces institutional quality's ability to reduce carbon emissions, is a crucial finding. Our study significantly advances the field of environmental economics, especially when discussing sustainable development in emerging nations with abundant natural resources. It emphasizes the delicate balance that must be struck between preserving efficient environmental governance and maximizing the richness of natural resources. Our findings underscore the crucial need for developing nations to strengthen their institutional frameworks and capacities and have substantial policy implications. These steps are essential to ensuring that the use of natural resources is in line with environmental sustainability objectives, turning resource curses into blessings for long-term development and environmental preservation. This research opens the door to sector-specific impacts and personalized policy interventions in resource-rich developing economies.

Quantifying delayed climate mitigation benefits in electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle deployment for sustainable mobility

In the fight against climate change, transitioning to green transport is imperative. Our study evaluates the Greenhouse Gas Emission Breakeven Time (GBET) for Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) in China, the largest auto market globally. Emissions vary significantly across Chinese provinces due to differences in grid carbon intensity, hydrogen production methods, and vehicle usage. EVs show more than a 50 % difference in Well-to-Wheel (WTW) emissions regionally, which is also true for HFCVs, although they exhibit less interprovincial variability, suggesting a steadier reduction trend. These findings stress the need for regional considerations in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and introduce the concept of “climate debt” to evaluate the delayed benefits of emission reductions. HFCVs, benefiting from cleaner hydrogen production advancements, can repay their climate debt about 60 % quicker than EVs, presenting a caveat: the risk of short-term emission spikes if the initial greenhouse gas surplus isn't efficiently compensated. We found that the average GBET for EV-Cars is about 3.39 years and for EV-SUVs (Sports Utility Vehicle), 4.23 years. Comparatively, HFCV-Cars and HFCV-SUVs have shorter average GBETs of roughly 1.39 and 1.43 years, respectively, indicating faster environmental paybacks. Conclusively, our study endorses regional assessment frameworks and highlights HFCVs' role in China's path to a low-carbon future. It is essential for sustainable mobility stakeholders to adapt vehicle technology adoption and related policies to local energy contexts to meet climate goals. Our research provides crucial insights into how green vehicles can achieve emission targets, advocating for a localized approach in sustainable transportation strategies.

Abnormal temperature-dependent transient electroluminescence spikes induced by the leakage of hole carriers in organic light-emitting diodes

The amplitude of the emission spike at the transient electroluminescence (TEL) falling edge is an important benchmark for evaluating the quantities of trapped charges existed in organic light-emitting diodes and often shows a normal temperature dependence which increases with the decreasing temperature. Surprisingly, an unreported abnormal temperature-dependent TEL spike was observed in this work. A series of experimental results relevant to the electroluminescence spectrum and TEL measurements demonstrate that this abnormal temperature-dependent behavior is induced by the leakage of hole carriers from the emission layer (EML) to an electron transport layer (ETL). After the voltage pulse is turned off, these holes already leaked into the ETL drift back toward the EML, subsequently engaging in radiative recombination with trapped electrons on guest molecules to generate a spike at the TEL falling edge. However, the drift process is hindered by the reduced carrier mobility of the ETL material with the decrease in temperature. As a result, the spike intensity weakens as the temperature decreases, which contradicts the conclusions reported in previous literatures. Therefore, this study not only leads to the reconsideration for the judgment criteria of the number of trapped charges but also provides valuable insight into the TEL research field of organic optoelectronic devices.

Underappreciated Emission Spikes From Power Plants During Heatwaves Observed From Space: Case Studies in India and China

AbstractThe frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heatwaves are projected to increase in the global context of climate change. However, evidence of how anthropogenic emissions respond to heatwaves and further impact air quality remains elusive. Here, we use satellite remote sensing measurements alongside chemical transport model simulations to reveal abrupt variations in primary and secondary air pollutants introduced by extreme heatwaves. We highlight evidence from China and India, where satellite sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns over thermal power plants enhance consistently responding to heatwaves. We attribute such spiked emissions to soaring electricity use and demonstrate that bottom‐up inventories underestimate the emissions from the power sector by 34.9% for the selected case. Elevated emissions facilitate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) formation over thermal power plants in an inhomogeneous manner, due to the combined effect of atmospheric oxidizing capacity, thermal decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate, planetary boundary layer rise, and air stagnation. Our results underscore the emerging challenge of pollution control attributable to the increasing climate penalty and the necessity of targeted control strategies and alternative energy sources during heatwaves.

Influence of Al3+ co-doped ions for the improvement of orange-reddish light emitting photoluminescence characteristics of Gd2Ti2O7:Eu3+ pyrochlore

Series of Al3+ doped Gd1.92Ti2-xO7:Eu0.08Al3+x (where x = 0, 0.02, 0.04, 0.06, & 0.08), powdered samples had been successfully developed using the solid-state reaction strategy. The purity of the produced samples was confirmed using X-ray diffraction analysis, while through Raman spectroscopy analysis and deconvolution, it has been observed that high intensity vibrational bands exhibited a blue shift (from 312.3 to 313.9 cm−1 and 518.2–518.6 cm−1) upon the introduction of Al3+ substitution in the Gd1.92Eu0.08Ti2O7 host lattice. Photoluminescence excitation spectra showed absorption in the ultraviolet & near-ultraviolet regions for Gd1.92Eu0.08Ti2O7, monitored at a wavelength of 588 nm. On the other hand, the Al3+ doped Gd1.92Eu0.08Ti2O7 oxides exhibited distinct absorption bands in 250–500 wavelength region, in addition to the host excitation bands. Under 322 nm excitation, the Al3+ doped Gd1.92Eu0.08Ti2O7 pyrochlore oxides displayed a dominant orange-reddish emission spike at 588 nm occurring due to 5D0→7F1 transition, along with weak emission peaks at 612 nm originating from 5D0→7F2 transition of trivalent europium ions. Similarly, under 394 nm excitation, the whole series exhibited analogous emission spikes, with the highly intense peak centered at 588 nm and weak band at 612 nm but in this case the emission intensity for all the peaks are relatively low as compared to when excited to 322 nm. The energy transfer processes and their relative possible reasons for concentration quenching above a Al3+ ion concentration of 2.0 mol% were discussed in detail. The optimized sample showed CIE chromaticity coordinates of (0.605, 0.392) under 322 nm excitation, indicating its positioning in the orange-reddish region. The CIE coordinates measured, depends on the emission profile under 322 nm excitation closely matched those of the economic phosphor Y2O2S:Eu3+ (x = 0.622 and y = 0.351). Overall, these results highlight the potential of Al3+ doped Gd1.92Eu0.08Ti2O7 pyrochlore oxides as orange-reddish emitting components for luminescent devices.

Light speed variation from GRB 221009A

It is postulated in Einstein’s relativity that the speed of light in vacuum is a constant for all observers. However, the effect of quantum gravity could bring an energy dependence of light speed, and a series of studies on high-energy photon events from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) suggest a light speed variation with E LV = 3.6 × 1017 GeV or a bound E LV ≥ 3.6 × 1017 GeV. From the newly observed gamma-ray burst GRB 221009A, we find that a 99.3 GeV photon detected by Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) is coincident with the sharp spike in the light curves detected by both Fermi-Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and HEBS under the above scenario of light speed variation, suggesting an option that this high-energy photon was emitted at the same time as a sharp spike of low-energy photon emission at the GRB source. Thus this highest energy photon event detected by Fermi-LAT during the prompt emission of GRBs might be considered as an optional signal for the linear form modification of light speed in cosmological space.

Neighborhood-Level LCA and Hotspot Analysis of Embodied Emissions of a New Urban Area in Reykjavík

The built environment sector causes significant climate change impacts, which indicates an opportunity for the sector to be of great importance in reducing its global impact. The main strategy has focused on urban density and transport as well as studying the emissions caused by buildings with life-cycle assessments (LCAs). However, a holistic approach is often missing, where life-cycle environmental impacts are assessed, and goals are considered at the planning stage. This study proposes LCA on a neighborhood scale for a holistic approach and to identify how LCA can be used to reduce impacts when designing and for decision-making at the planning stage. The focus is on the pre-use phase because that phase has been proven to cause a significant spike in carbon emissions when considering the near future and is crucial in reaching climate goals. The study case is a new neighborhood plan in Reykjavík, Iceland. The assessment focuses on the climate change impact of building a new neighborhood. The study identifies materials as a key factor. It demonstrates how the total emissions of the neighborhood are reduced when more environmentally friendly materials are replaced by traditional ones. It reduces GHG emissions by up to 40% in total.

The Application of Mobile Sensing to Detect CO and NO2 Emission Spikes in Polluted Cities

The Application of Mobile Sensing to Detect CO and NO₂ Emission Spikes in Polluted Cities

Operational carbon transition in the megalopolises’ commercial buildings

Megalopolises are important political and economic centers and offer the best opportunities for decarbonizing commercial building operations. This study estimates the decarbonization level of commercial buildings from China's five major megalopolises (Jing-Jin-Ji, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Middle Reach, and Cheng-Yu) through the generalized Divisia index method, considering the impacts of socio-economy, technology evolution, and climate. Results found the following: First, economic growth effects [service industry added value (42.2%) and gross domestic product (36.5%)] and energy consumption (23.8%) were the main drivers of the spike in operational carbon emissions of the megalopolises from 2000 to 2018. Second, except for Cheng-Yu, operational carbon emissions were decoupled from economic growth effects since 2009, with the most significant decoupling status occurring in Jing-Jin-Ji, and technical effects being the main factor leading to the decoupling. Third, the five megalopolises cumulatively decarbonized 233.1 mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), offsetting 4.4% of the operational carbon of commercial buildings, with the highest decarbonization level in Jing-Jin-Ji (5.7 MtCO2 per yr, 7.8 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter per yr, and 55.6 kg of carbon dioxide per capita per yr). Furthermore, current decarbonization strategies for megalopolises are reviewed to plan for future low-carbon developments. Overall, this study assesses the operational decarbonization change of commercial buildings in Chinese megalopolises. The findings help inform building of sector pathways toward China's carbon peaking and neutral goals and develop global low-carbon cities.

A Mathematical Study on Rising Pressures of Carbon Emissions and Acidity in Aquatic Bodies

Contamination of water bodies is one of the alarming concerns of today’s times calling for immediate attention and action. Accelerated industrialization and other human-driven activities have given way to abrupt spike in the carbon emissions. These carbon emissions are absorbed by the water bodies. As a resultant of this absorption, the carbon reacts with oxygen present in water, forming carbonic acid and causes the pH level of water to decrease, thus, causing water acidification. The acidity of water also increases due to discharge of wastes and pollutants into aquatic bodies. Also, the carbon induced global warming leads to an increase in the temperature of water which further leads to a decline in level of dissolved oxygen in aquatic bodies. Besides, these phenomena cause a rise in the growth of algal bloom, which depletes the dissolved oxygen concentration in water due to consumption of dissolved oxygen in algal decomposition process. To investigate these impacts of increasing acidity and rising carbon emissions on the aquatic populations, a non-linear mathematical model is proposed and analysed. Numerical simulations using MATLAB are performed in order to support the analytical results.

Modeling the impact of motorized vehicles' activities on emissions and economic losses in a fast-growing developing city, Dhaka, Bangladesh

IntroductionHuman exposure is the most visible effect of different pollutants, which come at a hidden cost to society due to their impacts on human health and the environment. ObjectiveThe purpose of this research is to gain a better knowledge of the environmental effects of motorized vehicles' gas emissions and the resulting economic losses in a developing country. MethodsIn this paper, the authors estimated vehicular emissions, emission costs, climate change costs (CCCs), and noise pollution costs (NPCs) for 84 road segments (18 important intersections) in Dhaka City in 2009 and 2017. The top-down method was used to determine the vehicular emissions in each intersection using average daily traffic data and previously defined emission factors. Climatic change costs were evaluated using the damage cost approach, and noise pollution costs were estimated using the bottom-up noise exposure model. ResultsAnalysis showed that the enormous and uncontrolled surge in personal vehicles resulted in significant spikes in emissions as well as economic losses. Result shows the massive increase of all types of pollutants due to the rise of vehicular populations. From 2009 to 2017, the exhaust emission costs increased by 77.89%, (from 20.71 × 106 to 36.84 × 106 Tk/day), CCCs by 63.96% (from 18.73 × 106 to 30.71 × 106 Tk/day), NPCs by 101.61% (from 11.20 × 106 to 22.58 × 106 Tk/day). The study illustrated the spatial GHG emissions, CCCs, and NPCs statistics of all the traffic nodes and signified the regulation of vehicular activities in a sustainable manner. ConclusionProper adaptation of the recommended policies and strategies can improve the scenario and potentially lessen the other negative consequences.

Manipulation of plasmonic random laser from dye-doped liquid crystals inside photonic crystal fiber by the electric field

The manipulation of plasmonic random lasers (PRLs) from dye-doped liquid crystals (DDLCs) inside the air holes of photonic crystal fiber (PCF) with silver nanoprisms has been investigated by means of applied voltage. In comparison to the sample without AgNPs, PRL exhibits multiple emission spikes and a lower lasing threshold owing to the recurrent light scattering and the localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) effect. Through the modulation of the applied voltage above 80 V, the alignment of nematic liquid crystals inside the air holes of PCF will become more disordered to produce photon trapping for improving the output intensity of PRLs and will induce strong light scattering for turning the incoherent feedback to coherent feedback. When the applied voltage exceeds a certain value, the emission spike of RL does not increase further because of the gain saturation effect. The enhancement of light scattering inside the air holes of PCF as voltage increases was demonstrated by the white light scattering spectrum from polarization optical microscopy.

Controls on carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from a low-center polygonal peatland in the Mackenzie River Delta, Northwest Territories

Growing season surface–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide and methane were quantified at Fish Island, a wetland site in the lower northeast Mackenzie River Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada. The terrain consists of low-center polygonal tundra and is subject to infrequent flooding in high water years. Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes were continuously measured using eddy covariance and the relevance of different environmental controls were identified using neural networks. Net daily carbon dioxide uptake peaked in mid-July before gradually decreasing and transitioning to net daily emissions by September. Variations in light level and temperature were the main controls over diurnal net carbon dioxide uptake, whereas thaw depth and phenology were the main seasonal controls. Methane emissions measured at Fish Island were higher than comparable studies on river delta sites in the Arctic and were influenced by the interaction of a large number of factors including thaw and water table depth, soil temperatures, and net radiation. Spikes in methane emissions were associated with strong winds and turbulence. The Fish Island tundra was a net sink for carbon during the growing season and methane emissions only slightly reduced the overall sink strength.

An assessment of the short-term impact of COVID-19 on economics and the environment: A case study of Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic has already made a significant impact on various sectors. No country was fully prepared to face this global pandemic, and Indonesia is no exception. For Indonesia, this pandemic shook not only the public health service system but also the economy. This study makes projections related to the impact of this pandemic on the Indonesian economy by utilising a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Additionally, we calculate the land needed to cover the demand for agricultural products, as well as the level to which emissions can be reduced. Our simulation shows that, along with every shock caused by COVID-19 to national supply and demand, Indonesia will be experiencing economic stagnation by 2021, with the gross domestic product (GDP) level 4–8% lower than the business as usual (BAU) level during the pandemic (2020–2021). The two sectors that will be hit hardest are the transportation and tourism sectors, making up a GDP loss ranging from 30% to 50%. During this stagnation, the agricultural sector is a potential sector for accommodating workers who have been laid off. The model also predicts that there will be a temporary land-use change that the farmers will prefer to use their land for food and horticultural commodities. As for emissions, our calculations show that the potential for emission reductions will be up to 8% by 2021, compared to the BAU level. However, the source of this emission reduction is not positive as it comes from the restriction of economic activity, and the growth in emissions from the industrial and waste sectors are still increasing rapidly, even during the pandemic. Thus, it is feared that there will be a very high spike in emissions when the pandemic ends, making the situation more challenging for Indonesia to achieve its emission mitigation targets. Furthermore, once the government introduces fiscal incentives to support the economy during the pandemic, the economic condition will be improved, although still not fully recovered. The model predicts that the government fiscal incentives may help to improve the GDP by around 1–3%, compared to when no incentive is introduced.

Influence of the cell geometry on the conversion efficiency of oxidation catalysts under real driving conditions

Worldwide pollutant regulations applied to the transportation sector are progressively tightening the emission limits and widening the operating conditions of the type approval tests. As a result, the layout and thermal management of the exhaust system is becoming highly complex looking to achieve early catalytic converter activation. On this regard, the monolith meso-geometry plays a primary role to optimise the pollutants conversion efficiency. The geometrical characteristics simultaneously affect and trade-off multiple flow phenomena as the exhaust gas is transported through the channels. These include the bulk gas and internal pore diffusion towards the active sites in addition to the heat transfer including convection, radial conductivity and thermal capacitance. In this work, the impacts of the cell size, cross-section shape, washcoat loading and substrate material on CO and HC conversion efficiency have been investigated under representative real driving conditions. From the real driving conditions experimental data, the study decouples the influence of the washcoat loading from the cell size and material applying a catalytic converter model. Detailed expressions are provided for the calculation of the specific surfaces and heat and mass transfer parameters as a function of the cell and washcoat meso-geometry in square and triangular cells. Therefore, this work enables to identify the processes which govern the catalytic abatement of pollutant emissions. In particular, the role of the gas and washcoat specific surfaces is highlighted because of its importance on the optimization of the mass transfer process by means of a proper cell geometry selection. In parallel, the differences in the change of the CO and HC abatement patterns, which are explained by the characteristic CO emission spikes in accelerations and the HC accumulation, contribute to evidence the limitations on the conversion efficiency benefit that the optimum cell geometry and washcoat loading can provide.

Contingent Effects of Liming on N2O-Emissions Driven by Autotrophic Nitrification

Liming acidic soils is often found to reduce their N2O emission due to lowered N2O/(N2O + N2) product ratio of denitrification. Some field experiments have shown the opposite effect, however, and the reason for this could be that liming stimulates nitrification-driven N2O production by enhancing nitrification rates, and by favoring ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) over ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA). AOB produce more N2O than AOA, and high nitrification rates induce transient/local hypoxia, thereby stimulating heterotrophic denitrification. To study these phenomena, we investigated nitrification and denitrification kinetics and the abundance of AOB and AOA in soils sampled from a field experiment 2–3 years after liming. The field trial compared traditional liming (carbonates) with powdered siliceous rocks. As expected, the N2O/(N2O + N2) product ratio of heterotrophic denitrification declined with increasing pH, and the potential nitrification rate and its N2O yield (YN2O: N2O-N/NO3–-N), as measured in fully oxic soil slurries, increased with pH, and both correlated strongly with the AOB/AOA gene abundance ratio. Soil microcosm experiments were monitored for nitrification, its O2-consumption and N2O emissions, as induced by ammonium fertilization. Here we observed a conspicuous dependency on water filled pore space (WFPS): at 60 and 70% WFPS, YN2O was 0.03-0.06% and 0.06–0.15%, respectively, increasing with increasing pH, as in the aerobic soil slurries. At 85% WFPS, however, YN2O was more than two orders of magnitude higher, and decreased with increasing pH. A plausible interpretation is that O2 consumption by fertilizer-induced nitrification cause hypoxia in wet soils, hence induce heterotrophic nitrification, whose YN2O decline with increasing pH. We conclude that while low emissions from nitrification in well-drained soils may be enhanced by liming, the spikes of high N2O emission induced by ammonium fertilization at high soil moisture may be reduced by liming, because the heterotrophic N2O reduction is enhanced by high pH.

Generation of spikes in ultrafine particle emissions from a gasoline direct injection vehicle during on-road emission tests

This study explores the generation of ultrafine particle emissions, measured in particle number (PN), based on a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) in the City of Toronto between October and December 2019. Two driving routes were designed to include busy arterial roads and highways. All measurements were conducted between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Altogether, emissions from 31 drives were collected, leading to approximately 200,000 s of data. A spike detection algorithm was employed to isolate PN spikes in time series data. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to identify the most optimum method for spike detection. The results indicate that the average emission rate during a PN spike is approximately 8 times the emission rate along the rest of the drive. In each test trip, about 25% of the duration was attributed to spike events, contributing 75% of total PN emissions. A Pearson correlation of 0.45 was estimated between the number of PN spikes and the number of sharp accelerations (above 8.5 km/h/s). The Pearson correlation between the occurrence of high engine torque (above 65.0 Nm) and the number of PN spikes was estimated at 0.80. The number of PN spikes was highest on arterial roads where the vehicle speed was relatively low, but with high variability, and including a high number of sharp accelerations. This pattern of UFP emissions leads to high UFP concentrations along arterial roads in the inner city core.

Temporal X-ray Reconstruction using Temporal and Spectral Measurements at LCLS

Transverse deflecting structures (TDSs) are widely used in accelerator physics to measure the longitudinal density of particle bunches. When used in combination with a dispersive section, the whole longitudinal phase space density can be imaged. At the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS), the installation of such a device downstream of the undulators enables the reconstruction of the X-ray temporal intensity profile by comparing longitudinal phase space distributions with lasing on and lasing off. However, the resolution of this TDS is limited to around 1 fs rms (root mean square), and therefore, it is not possible to resolve single self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) spikes within an X-ray photon pulse. By combining the power spectrum from a high resolution photon spectrometer and the temporal structure from the TDS, the overall resolution is enhanced, thus allowing the observation of temporal, single SASE spikes. The combined data from the spectrometer and the TDS is analysed using an iterative algorithm to obtain the actual intensity profile. In this paper, we present some improvements to the reconstruction algorithm as well as real data taken at LCLS.

Real-World Exhaust Emissions of Diesel Locomotives and Motorized Railcars during Scheduled Passenger Train Runs on Czech Railroads

The paper summarizes exhaust emissions measurements on two diesel-electric locomotives and one diesel-hydraulic railcar, each tested for several days during scheduled passenger service. While real driving emissions of buses decrease with fleet turnaround and have been assessed by many studies, there are virtually no realistic emissions data on diesel rail vehicles, many of which are decades old. The engines were fitted with low-power portable online monitoring instruments, including a portable Fourier Transform Infra Red (FTIR) spectrometer, online particle measurement, and in two cases with proportional particle sampling systems, all installed in engine compartments. Due to space constraints and overhead electric traction lines, exhaust flow was computed from engine operating data. Real-world operation was characterized by relatively fast power level transitions during accelerations and interleaved periods of high load and idle, and varied considerably among service type and routes. Spikes in PM emissions during accelerations and storage of PM in the exhaust were observed. Despite all engines approaching the end of their life, the emissions per passenger-km were very low compared to automobiles. Tests were done at very low costs with no disruption of the train service, yielded realistic data, and are also applicable to diesel-hydraulic units, which cannot be tested at standstill.

Urban environment dynamics and low carbon society: Multi-criteria decision analysis modeling for policy makers

The aim of achieving stable economic growth and development deter the pathways of being a low carbon society in developing countries. Nonetheless, it is imperative to understand and analyze the long-term goals of such societies to upgrade and redirect priorities towards the low-carbon structure. Therefore, this study is carried by applying a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach and the Bilan Carbone model to examine the different possibilities for cost/benefit analysis from direct reductions in carbon emission levels in the Lahore Metropolitan Area (LMA) of Pakistan. The LMA is a metropolitan city in the developing country and is marked with a huge spike in energy demands and carbon emissions due to increasing population. Three scenarios including one current (2010), and two future (business as usual—2050BaU and low carbon scenario—2050LCS), were developed. Our findings show no evidence of renewable energy use—such as solar, wind, and biomass—in the current energy mix of LMA. Furthermore, an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 3.5 in 2010 to 14 million tonnes (mt) in 2050 is found. Mitigation potential analysis of different sectors showed that the industrial sector of the city has the biggest mitigation capacity (13%) until the year 2050, whereas, the smallest proportion may come from the commercial sector (4%). The carbon emissions in LMA would be reduced as much as 50% as compared to the BaU scenario until 2050. Moreover, this mitigation potential study would also serve as a ripple effect in the data deficient cities of low-income countries.