Emission Reduction Commitments Research Articles

Multi-open-path laser dispersion spectroscopy combined with Bayesian state estimation for localizing and quantifying methane emissions

A global effort towards improved quantitative understanding of greenhouse gas emissions is taking pace. This includes developing source identification, quantification, and apportionment in an attempt to understand global budget and trends, but also developing monitoring systems making emission reduction commitment verifiable. In this context, we demonstrate a novel approach to continuous methane emission monitoring at the spatial scale of an industrial facility. By combining multi-directional measurements of path-integrated methane concentrations with Bayesian state estimation, we show a realistic tomographic gas plume reconstruction, its evolution in time, and the associated estimation of the source map. The method is validated using measurements from controlled methane releases over a domain of area 120×40 m2. For the first demonstration, a two dimensional geometry has been used in the gas flow model; nevertheless, sources are located within 3 to 12 meters, and mass emission rates are estimated within <30% for 80% of the cases.

Realpolitik in the Anthropocene: Resilience, Neoclassical Realism, and the Paris Agreement

Abstract It has been observed that the Paris Agreement has become an “analogy” of diplomatic success and institutional design because it allows emissions reduction commitments to be determined at the national level. While this is widely attributed to the United States’ insistence on excluding any provisions that would have required US Senate ratification, the success of Paris stems more from the way the agreement partly circumvents the divergent interests of developed and developing countries by allowing states to pursue their own mitigation strategies based on domestic distributional and ideological politics rather than interstate cooperation and/or competition. It is this accommodation of both an institutionalist logic of absolute gains and a more realist logic of relative gains that ultimately underpins the diplomatic and institutional design success of Paris. However, the resonance of realism, at least in its neoclassical form, also stems from its greater capacity to accommodate the heightened socioecological complexity, interconnectedness, and unknowability occasioned by the Anthropocene than other branches of Anthropocentric international relations theory. This potential is outlined in this Forum article by sketching the epistemological and ontological connections between neoclassical realism and the concept of resilience.

Effects of International Climate Policy on Renewable Energy Consumption: The Context of the Kyoto Protocol

Purpose: The key objective of this study is to explore the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on Renewable Energy Consumption at the national level.&#x0D; Methodology: The study employed the matching and difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation approaches. The study analysis is based on secondary resources assessed through openly access documents, journals, and libraries. Data used in the analysis were collected from publicly available data sources.&#x0D; Findings: The study finds that the Kyoto Protocol has a significant and positive impact on renewable energy consumption at the national level in the Annex I countries compared to non-Annex I countries. It indicates that there has been a specific effect of the Kyoto Protocol on renewable energy in Annex I countries since these countries were legally bound with emissions reduction commitments of the Protocol. Findings indicate that Annex I countries overlooked environmental pollution at the early stages of their economic and industrial development, but with their higher economic development, they are taking measures to prevent environmental pollution, such as increasing REC. Findings here reckon with the argument of the effectiveness of global climate governance in mitigating climate change effects.&#x0D; Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Findings support the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) proposition. Results stresses on the effectiveness of global climate governance for mitigating climate change effects. In this context, rich countries should deliver more financial and technological supports to poor countries.

Ammonia emission factors from cattle production systems in Ireland – a review

Ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production contribute to environmental pollution. To address this challenge, the European Union (EU) National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive 2016/2284 (NECD) sets NH3 reduction targets for EU member states. In order to achieve these targets, several strategies have been evaluated under Irish conditions. A compilation of emission factors (EFs) from studies which evaluated these strategies is necessary to assess their effectiveness. This paper reports NH3 EFs from cattle production under Irish conditions. The results from the review show that the mean EFs from the deposition of dung, urine and urea applied to urine patches on grasslands were 4%, 9% and 8% total nitrogen (TN), respectively. EFs from the application of urea to urine patches were reduced by 28% after the addition of the urease inhibitor N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) to urea. The mean EF of 28% TN reported for urea fertiliser was almost 7 times higher than calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN). The inclusion of urease inhibitors with urea fertilisation on grassland led to EF reduction of up to 86%. The mean EFs from cattle houses, concrete yards, slurry storage pits and slurry landspreading were approximately 13%, 35%, 60% and 59% total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN), respectively. The most effective NH3 abatement strategies for concrete yards and slurry storage were immediate cleaning of concrete floors (up to 89% reduction) after excreta deposition and the application of chemical amendments (sulphuric acid, acetic acid, alum and ferric chloride) to slurry in storage pits (up to 98% reduction), respectively. Low-emission spreading strategies and slurry acidification were effective at abating EFs after slurry application to land.

Analysis of the particulate matter long term emissions in Romania by sectors of activities

Particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere is highly relevant due to its far-reaching implications. These tiny solid or liquid particles affect human health, causing respiratory and cardiovascular issues, and even premature death. PM also plays a role in climate change, as some particles contribute to warming, while others have cooling effects, impacting Earth's energy balance. Additionally, PM influences visibility, transportation safety, and ecosystems by depositing on land and water surfaces, altering soil and water quality. Recognizing and monitoring the emissions and sources of PMs by 4 subclasses, from PM2.5 to PM10, but also as TSP (total suspended particles) and individually as BC – black carbon is vital for effective air quality management and mitigating its multifaceted impacts on our environment and well-being. This paper presents an analysis of PMs emissions divided into the 4 classes presented above, for Romania, between 1990-2021, as given by the national report made according to the National Emission reduction Commitments Directive (NECD), which aims to reduce emissions of the main air pollutants. The emission data are presented by national emission sectors, from different industries to different transport types, and also from agricultural activities, and waste management. Relevant averages and trends are quantified and analysed as a reference for real-time data at city level, such that to assess the local pollution level and data accuracy as compared to the national reports.

Are European cities achieving emission reduction commitments? A comparative analysis under the Covenant of Mayors initiative

Are European cities achieving emission reduction commitments? A comparative analysis under the Covenant of Mayors initiative

Research on the Relationship Between Provincial OFDI And Carbon Emissions Under Dual Carbon Targets

With the development of economic globalization and China's continuous high-quality development, China's global status continues to rise, driving more and more companies to "go out" to conduct foreign direct investment overseas in order to seek a larger market, in the face of the two major tasks of "economic development" and "achieving dual carbon goals", studying the impact of foreign direct investment on my country's carbon dioxide emissions has a very important reality for whether our country can achieve economic transformation and fulfill its emission reduction commitments. and guiding significance. Therefore, this article based on the panel data of energy consumption in 30 provinces and regions in China from 2004 to 2019 . At the same time, per capita GDP, technological level, industrial structure, etc. were selected as control variables, a fixed effect model was established, and an empirical analysis was conducted on the carbon emission effects of my country's foreign direct investment by region and time period. Empirical analysis results show that: The increase in the scale of OFDI will promote the increase of carbon dioxide emissions in China, but there are significant differences in the carbon emission effects of various regions. The carbon emission effect of foreign direct investment in the eastern and western regions is significantly higher than that in the central region. Over time, the expansion of foreign direct investment will reduce the increase in carbon dioxide emissions it brings. In addition, the improvement of per capita GDP and industrial structure will increase carbon dioxide emissions, while the improvement of technological level will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, reasonable policy suggestions are given based on the results of empirical analysis and the current situation of foreign direct investment and domestic carbon dioxide emissions.

Will emission reduction commitments hedge the carbon risk premium?

Under the goal of “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” in China, it is significant to explore whether emission reduction commitments contribute to carbon risk premium. Therefore, based on a sample of Chinese listed companies that publicly disclosed questionnaires in the CDP from 2009 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the relationship between emission reduction commitments and carbon risk premium and their formation mechanism. The results show that emission reduction commitments can effectively hedge the carbon risk premium, which pass several robustness tests. Specifically, the more comprehensive and ambitious the commitment is, the greater the suppression of the carbon risk premium. The mechanism test shows that disclosing emission reduction commitment information can reduce carbon risk by improving investor confidence and attracting political resources. Differences in enterprise emission levels, regional environmental regulation intensity and green financial development result in different risk-hedging effects of emission reduction commitments. Moreover, the greater the substantial pressure from stakeholders, the greater the tendency for firms to set up emission reduction commitments. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that confidence level of commitments has a significant impact on risk premium. Specifically, enterprises with SBTi validation, higher CDP ratings and higher target completion are more helpful in curbing carbon risk premium. Our findings contribute to corporate commitment to climate change and complement the carbon risk premium hypothesis.

Modelling large-scale hydrogen uptake in the Mexican refinery and power sectors

Due to the emissions reduction commitments that Mexico compromised in the Paris Agreement, several clean fuel and renewable energy technologies need to penetrate the market to accomplish the environmental goals. Therefore, there is a need to develop achievable and realistic policies for such technologies to ease the decision-making on national energy strategies. Several countries are starting to develop large-scale green hydrogen production projects to reduce the carbon footprint of the multiple sectors within the country. The conversion sectors, namely power and refinery, are fundamental sectors to decarbonise due to their energy supply role. Nowadays, the highest energy consumables of the country are hydrocarbons (more than 90%) causing a particular challenge for deep decarbonisation. The purpose of this study is to use a multi-regional energy system model of Mexico to analyse a decarbonisation scenario in line with the latest National Energy System Development Program. Results show that if the country wants to succeed in reducing 22% of its GHG emissions and 51% of its short-lived climate pollutants emissions, green hydrogen could play a role in power generation in regions with higher energy demand growth rates. These results show, regarding the power sector, that H2 could represent 13.8 GW or 5.1% of the total installed capacity by 2050, while for the refinery sector H2 could reach a capacity of 157 PJ/y, which is around 31.8% of the total share, and it is mainly driven by the increasing demands of the transport, industry, and power sectors. Nevertheless, as oil would still represent the largest energy commodity, CCS technologies would have to be deployed for new and retrofitted refinery facilities.

Study on the Efficiency Assessment of Green Economy Development and Carbon Emission Reduction Paths in the Yangtze River Delta Region under the "Double Carbon" Target

In the context of upgrading the "double carbon" target to a long-term national strategy, the development of a green economy is an inevitable trend for high-quality social development. As the Yangtze River Delta occupies an important position in China's economic and ecological development, assessing the efficiency of green economy development and optimizing carbon emission pathways in this region can not only promote the development of the region but also serve as a model to promote the high-quality economic development and ecological civilization construction of the whole country. Based on the above background, this project takes the green economy of each prefecture-level city in the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object takes the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, the assessment of green economy development efficiency and carbon emission management as the research perspective, relies on theories of sustainable development, low-carbon economy, and externality, and draws on the practice of green economy development in foreign countries, to achieve the emission reduction commitments set by the Chinese government, mitigate global The study will provide reasonable and efficient policy recommendations for achieving the Chinese government's stated commitments to reduce emissions, mitigate global climate change, and achieve high-quality economic development and the 2035 vision.

New model for predicting carbon storage dynamics and emissions related to the waste management of wood products: introduction of the HWP-RIAL model

The ability of wood products to store carbon allows for their significant contribution to the climate mitigation efforts and the emission reduction commitments set by the EU. In order to optimise the carbon storage capacity of wood products, it is important to take climate mitigation aspects into consideration as much as possible during their production, use and waste management. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of product development, recycling, and waste management technologies on carbon storage and emissions. In the frame of the ForestLab project, a new model and decision support tool was developed, which is able to predict the duration of carbon storage of wood products and the evolution of emissions from them. The developed HWP-RIAL model (Harvested Wood Product Recycling, Incineration And Landfill model) uses the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to calculate emissions, which is also used in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory report. It combines the IPCC waste model with equations describing the carbon storage and emissions of wood products, and the model is also supplemented with a self-developed recycling and waste routing module. This paper provides insight into the operation of the model by following the life cycle of 200,000 m3 particle board.

How Striking Is the Intergenerational Difference in Exposure to Compound Heatwaves Over Southeast Asia?

AbstractSoutheast Asia (SEA) is experiencing rapid warming, leading to more extreme heatwaves. Sustained compound heatwaves, with high temperatures during day and at night, pose profound threats in highly vulnerable regions, resulting in great stress on society. We estimated the changes in the compound heatwave characteristics and population exposure over SEA at the end of the 21st century based on the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Results show that the projected compound heatwaves have significant intensified over SEA linked to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Contemporary younger generations will face more potential risks than their parents' generation. A child born in the 2010s will experience 1,000 discrete heatwaves in their lifetime, a threefold increase compared with the 1980s. Climate change and population growth combine to drive increased population exposure. The climate effect accounts for 125% in the 0–24‐year‐old cohort, whereas the interaction effect accounts for 85% in the 75+ age group. The relative importance of effects evolves dynamically across age groups, gradually shifting from a predominance of climate effects to a synergy of the climate and population effects. Significant regional inequalities exist in the increased population exposure over SEA. The largest increase occurs in Indonesia, where the aggregate exposure ranges from 45 billion person‐days under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario to 81 and 108 billion person‐days, respectively, in the higher SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. The study emphasizes the need for the SEA countries to focus on heat‐stress adaptation strategies, while also working toward fulfilling emission reduction commitments.

Regional differences and driving factors of carbon emission intensity in China's electricity generation sector.

As an industry with immense decarbonization potential, the low-carbon transformation of the power sector is crucial to China's carbon emission (CE) reduction commitment. Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, this research calculates and analyzes the provincial CE intensity in electricity generation (CEIE) and its spatial distribution characteristics. Additionally, the GTWR model based on the construction explains the regional heterogeneity and dynamic development trend of each driving factor's influence on CEIE from time and space. The main results are as follows: CEIE showed a gradual downward trend in time and a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest. The contribution of driving factors to CEIE has regional differences, and the power structure contributes most to the CEIE of the power sector, which promotes regional CE. Concurrently, most provinces with similar economic development, technological level, geographic location, or resource endowment characteristics show similar spatial and temporal trends. These detections will furnish broader insights into implementing CE reduction policies for the regional power sector.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emission intensity in electricity generation and spatial spillover effects of driving factors across China's provinces

As China's largest source of carbon emissions, the power sector's transition to lower levels of carbon emission intensity is critical to achieving China's carbon emission (CE) reduction commitments. In this paper, the CE intensity of electricity generation (CEIE) in 30 provinces from 2000 to 2019 is calculated, and the temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of CEIE are discussed. Then, the spatial spillover effect of each driving factor on CEIE is calculated using the spatial Durbin model. The CEIE reveals a first increasing and then decreasing trend, and the regional differences gradually decrease. Simultaneously, the CEIE has a significant positive spatial correlation, and the overall spatial distribution pattern is high in the northeast and low in the southwest of the country. Economic development and foreign trade both inhibit CEIE, while electricity consumption, research and development, unit operation level, and power structure all promote CEIE. Each driving factor's influence on regional CEIE exerts a spatial spillover effect. Among them, the spatial positive spillover effects of industrial structure and environmental protection investment are the most obvious, while the spatial spillover effects of other driving factors are not apparent. Furthermore, these findings provide practical insights into policy adjustments and the coordinated interregional development of low-carbon electricity.

Toward a Super-COP? Timing, Temporality, and Rethinking World Climate Governance

Toward a Super-COP? Timing, Temporality, and Rethinking World Climate Governance

An Assessment of the Climate Damage Costs of European Short-Lived Climate Forcers

AbstractIn addition to effects from greenhouse gases, climate change is affected by short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). These are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide, and some are regulated air pollutants. In the governance of these pollutants, established estimates of damage costs of pollution inform benefit–cost analyses. However, climate change impact of SLCFs is omitted from these estimates. The purpose of this study is to calculate economic damage costs of air pollutants’ effect on climate change and compare these with established damage costs. Focus is on European emissions governed in the EU National Emission Reduction Commitments Directive during 2020–2050. We use well-known SLCF emission metrics and multiply with literature values on social costs of methane to calculate climate damage costs of SLCFs. The results indicate that average absolute climate damage costs are highest for black carbon ($59,500/ton in 2050) and lowest for nonmethane volatile organic compounds ($661/ton). Our indicative values are likely underestimations. Indicative climate damage costs are usually lower than established damage costs, with notable exceptions. We propose that more detailed studies are necessary, and that inclusion of climate damage costs into economic valuation of SLCFs is important for future air pollution and climate benefit–cost analyses.

Penerapan Prinsip Keberlanjutan: Strategi Negara Menurunkan Emisi Karbon?

As one of Indonesia's leading commodities, the trend of palm oil exports is always increasing. Even so, this commodity is often subject to global market discrimination which is manifested through regulations and policies of countries consuming palm oil commodities, such as the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) and the proposal for Regulation on deforestation-free products. The Indonesian government has filed a lawsuit against this regulation, but the WTO dispute resolution mechanism is still considered unable to resolve the problem, especially the reason that consumer countries think that Indonesian palm oil can reduce its post-2020 emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which needs to be fulfilled in 2030. On the other hand, the Government of Indonesia still needs to improve the governance of Indonesian palm oil in order to increase the acceptance of this commodity in the global eyes. This study aims to find a middle ground for commitments to reduce emissions from consumer countries and improve Indonesian palm oil governance through the acceptability of the palm oil market which is realized through free trade agreements. The formation of a trade agreement by including a clause on sustainability can be one solution to reconcile the acceptance of the palm oil market and global climate change commitments.

Research on the dynamic relationship between China's renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions based on ARDL model

In order to promote the adjustment of energy consumption structure and achieve the national emission reduction target, the paper takes China as the research object, collects data from 2007 to 2019, and uses ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model and Granger causality test methods to explore the equilibrium relationship of regional renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Conclusions as follows: (1) The boundary test of the ARDL model confirms that when renewable energy consumption is used as the explained variable, the boundary test results are not significant, and when carbon emissions are used as the explained variable, the boundary test results are significant, confirming the impact of China's renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions is significant; (2) The long-term elasticity coefficient of China's renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions is negative, and passed the significance test, indicating that renewable energy consumption has a significant negative effect on carbon emissions in long-term. The short-term elasticity coefficient is also negative, but did not pass the significance test, indicating that the short-term impact on renewable energy consumption is not statistically significant. (3) when the lag period is 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, Chinese renewable energy consumption constitutes the Granger reason for the carbon emission intensity; when the lag period is 3, 4 years, the carbon emission intensity constitutes the Granger reason for the change in renewable energy consumption; and when the lag period is one or two years, the carbon emission intensity does not constitute the Granger reason for the change in renewable energy consumption. Understanding the relationship between regional renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions in China is conducive to balancing regional and alleviating the conflict between regional low-carbon development and instability, helping to achieve nationwide carbon emission reduction commitments in advance, and formulating regional development policies according to local conditions.

Is electricity consumption of Chinese counties decoupled from carbon emissions? A study based on Tapio decoupling index

China has set more ambitious targets for controlling carbon emissions and poverty reduction at the end of 2020. In order to analyze China's experience in poverty reduction and CO2 emission reduction and to provide guidance for fulfilling its emission reduction commitments and consolidating poverty reduction achievements simultaneously in the future, this paper introduces the Tapio decoupling index to study the relationship between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in more than 600 Chinese counties from 2009 to 2016. The results show that more counties decoupled their electricity consumption from CO2 emissions in 2016 than in 2009. Then Logit model is proposed and the results show that poverty-stricken counties are more likely to decouple electricity consumption from CO2 emissions than non-poverty-stricken counties, which suggests that China's poverty-stricken counties are not pursuing economic development at the cost of loosening carbon emission controls. This paper also finds that as the carbon intensity of the secondary industry has declined significantly in recent years, the development of secondary industry could help decouple electricity consumption from CO2 emission, and the promotion of renewable energy can play the same role.

Delivering net zero

What comes next? The 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact rightly expressed “alarm and utmost concern” at the impacts of climate change that are already being felt around the world, following repeated instances of death and destruction brought by extreme heat, floods and wildfires.11 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2021) Glasgow Climate Pact, UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf It explicitly recognised that further impacts will be much lower at a 1.5C temperature increase than at 2C, and it stated that this means almost halving global carbon dioxide emissions this decade and reaching net zero around mid-century. More needs to be done to close the considerable gap between the ambition to limit climate change and the promised emission reductions. Pledges made by countries in Glasgow on issues such as deforestation, electric vehicles and methane need to be translated into real policy and action, accountability mechanisms need to be strengthened, and international climate finance needs to be bolstered. Nevertheless, a clear commitment to a global net-zero future has been made by global governments, mirrored throughout much of the private sector, and the principal challenge now is one of delivery on an accelerated timeframe. “This is both unimaginably daunting and eminently doable” “such investment must be fairly distributed and aligned to a broader strategy to deliver a just transition” “A critical part of the institutional infrastructure is ensuring horizontal and vertical connectivity in decision-making across local and national government” “emissions reduction commitments … remain woefully insufficient to limit a temperature rise to 1.5C” With the alarm bell still ringing from Glasgow, the single most important thing is that pledges are translated into accelerated whole-economy action so that this vision and the ambition of net zero rapidly become a global reality. Prof Emily Shuckburgh is Director of Cambridge Zero, the University of Cambridge's major climate change initiative. She is also Professor of Environmental Data Science at the Department of Computer Science and Technology and leads the UKRI Centre for Doctoral Training on the Application of AI to the study of Environmental Risks (AI4ER).