Emission Mitigation Scenarios Research Articles

Mitigating emissions in the global steel industry: Representing CCS and hydrogen technologies in integrated assessment modeling

We conduct a techno-economic assessment of two low-emissions steel production technologies and evaluate their deployment in emissions mitigation scenarios utilizing the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. Specifically, we assess direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace with carbon capture and storage (DRI-EAF with CCS) and H2-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (H2 DRI-EAF) which utilizes low carbon hydrogen to reduce CO2 emissions. Our techno-economic analysis based on the current state of technologies found that DRI-EAF with CCS increased costs ∼7% relative to the conventional steel technology. H2 DRI-EAF increased costs by ∼18% when utilizing Blue hydrogen and ∼79% when using Green hydrogen. The exact pathways for hydrogen production in different world regions, including the extent of CCS and hydrogen deployment in steelmaking are highly speculative at this point. In illustrative scenarios using EPPA, we find that, using base cost assumptions, switching from BF-BOF to DRI-EAF or scrap EAF can provide significant emissions mitigation within steelmaking. With further reductions in the cost of advanced steelmaking, we find a greater role for DRI-EAF with CCS, whereas reductions in both the cost of advanced steelmaking and hydrogen production lead to a greater role for H2 DRI-EAF. Our findings can be used to help decision-makers assess various decarbonization options and design economically efficient pathways to reduce emissions in the steel industry. Our cost evaluation can also be used to inform other energy-economic and integrated assessment models designed to provide insights about future decarbonization pathways.

Urban transport emissions under current and alternative mitigation policy scenarios for the Mumbai Metropolitan region

This paper first estimates the emission inventory for Mumbai Metropolitan Region's (MMR) urban transport under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The inventory includes five major pollutants, viz. CO2, CO, NOx, PM, and HC. We used a bottom-up approach based on a traditional four-step travel demand model for the base year (2005) and horizon years (2031 & 2050) to obtain vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) and vehicular emission factors adopted from the existing literature. The paper then proposes five emission mitigation scenarios for horizon years, including improvement of public transit infrastructure, increase in vehicle operating costs and inclusion of electric vehicles (EVs), to evaluate their impact on the urban transport of MMR. A combination of multiple policies- including the combined effect of land use, increase in vehicle operating cost and transit infrastructure- will reduce private vehicle mode share, VKT, and CO2 emission by ∼21%, ∼19%, and ∼4% compared to the BAU scenario in 2050.

Atmospheric verification of emissions reductions on paths to deep decarbonization

A central challenge for sustaining international cooperation to cut global greenhouse gas emissions is confidence that national policy efforts are leading to a meaningful impact on the climate. Here, we apply a detection protocol to determine when the measurable signal of atmospheric CO2 can be distinguished from the noise of the carbon cycle and uncertainties in emission trends. We test that protocol with a database of 226 emission mitigation scenarios—the universe of scenarios vetted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These scenarios are descriptive of ‘baseline’ trajectories of emissions trends in the absence of new policies along with trajectories that reflect substantial policy efforts to stop warming at 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, as embodied in the Paris Agreement. The most aggressive mitigation scenarios (i.e. 1.5 °C) require 11–16 years to detect a signal of demonstrable progress from the noise; 2 °C scenarios lengthen detection by at least a decade. As more climate policy analysts face the reality that goals of 1.5 °C–2 °C seem infeasible, they have developed ‘overshoot’ scenarios with emissions that rise above the agreed goal and then, later on, fall aggressively to achieve it. These pathways come at the political cost of a 1–2 decade delay in detection, even for the 1.5 °C scenarios. The Paris Agreement requires a global ‘stocktake’ that interrogates national mitigation efforts; our results suggest that this effort must grapple with the question of when the world can gain confidence that the diplomacy on climate is demonstrably making an impact.

Sea Surface Temperature Changes Over the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries in East Vietnam Sea Simulated by Multi CMIP5 Models

The East ​​Vietnam Sea plays important roles in the Pacific Northwest region. The projection of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in these regions is an important research topic in marine science. However, this is a very difficult problem due to the lack of available long-term projection data. Recently, with the development of numerical modeling technology, it has become an important way to help us understand climate change. This paper focuses on studying the SST changes in the East Vietnam Sea during the history of the 20th century and the change under 3 emission scenarios in the 21st century based on a combination of 20 global models (GCM) from Phase 5 of the the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and together with the observed data set. Compared with the observed data, most of the global GCMs models can simulate well the spatial and seasonal changes of the SST over the East Vietnam Sea regions. The spatial and annual SST trends over the the 20th century based on both observations and multimodel ensemble averages show that the warming trend of SST over most of the East Vietnam Sea with the largest warming trend occurred in the center and southern regions of the East Vietnam Sea. However, compared with the observation, CMIP5 underestimated SST trends over most regions of East Vietnam Sea. In addition, there is a consistency between the CMIP5 and the spatial and seasonal observations of the SST trend in the East Vietnam Sea areas. The future SST projections for East Vietnam Sea indicate that RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 exhibit a gradual increase in annual SST during the 21st century at a rate of 0.1 °C and 0.3 °C per 10 years respectively. The lowest emission mitigation scenario, RCP 2.6, produces the lowest rate of warming. By the end of the 21st century, the annual SST is projected to increase by 0.5-2.0 °C in 3 emission scenarios of typical representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6.

Now Comes the Hard Part

Everyone involved in the energy industry has seen projections highlighting possible paths to net-zero global carbon emissions by 2050. Illustrations of such paths have been published recently by (among others) the International Energy Agency (IEA)1 and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).2 These graphic illustrations tempt readers to believe that, if a target of net-zero by a specified date is agreed, then rational human beings should be able to implement an appropriate path. Implementation, though, is far more complicated than building the computer models that generate such paths. Emissions mitigation scenarios are not self-actualizing. ‘Computers’, Smil writes, ‘make it easy to construct many scenarios of rapid carbon elimination—but those who chart their preferred paths to a zero-carbon future owe us realistic explanations, not just sets of more or less arbitrary and highly improbable assumptions detached from technical and economic realities and ignoring the embedded nature, massive scale, and enormous complexity of our energy and material systems.’3

AN ECONOMY-WIDE FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE STRANDED ASSETS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION SECTOR UNDER CLIMATE POLICIES

Climate change mitigation efforts, which require the transition away from carbon-intensive activities, can pose financial risks for owners of fossil fuel assets and investors that the finance companies are engaged in greenhouse gas-emitting activities. For instance, fossil fuel extraction may be significantly scaled-back, and coal-power plants may be idled or even phased out prematurely, thus becoming stranded assets for the shareholders. Using a global general equilibrium model with detailed energy sector and capital stock structures, we estimate the corresponding stranded assets under various emissions mitigation scenarios. Our findings reveal that, depending on the policy scenario, the global net present value of unrealized fossil fuel output through 2050 relative to a “no policy” scenario is between 21.5 and 30.6 trillion USD, and that of stranded assets in coal power generation is between 1.3 and 2.3 trillion USD. The analytical framework presented in our study complements existing research, in which macroeconomic variables required for estimating the stranded assets are often derived from models with more simplified assumptions. Therefore, individual firms and financial institutions can combine our economy-wide analysis with details on their own investment portfolios to determine their climate-related transition risk exposure.

Assessment greenhouse gas emissions on households in Can Tho city

This study investigated household greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ninh Kieu, Cai Rang and Binh Thuy districts in Can Tho city. The calculated emissions were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Atmospheric Brown Cloud Emission Inventory Manual - ABC EIM (2013) for the 3 gases of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Data collection is through the interviewing of 565 households including direct emission sources (gas, coal, firewood burning activities) and indirect emission sources (electricity consumption and domestic solid waste burning). The results found that in the year 2019, the total GHG emissions in the three districts was 1,008,197.82 tons CO2eq/year, in which CO2accounted for the highest proportion with 988,716.68 tons/year (98.07%), with both CH4 and N2O accounting for a very low proportion with about 1.88 and 0.05% respectively. Among the districts, Ninh Kieu contributed the highest proportion to emission at 59.43%, next to Cai Rang at 21.69% and the final in Binh Thuy at 18.88%. In addition, it was revealed that indirect emission sources of 1.4 times higher than direct emission sources in which Ninh Kieu district has the highest emission and higher than Cai Rang and Binh Thuy districts at 6.4 to 7.6 times, respectively. The research outcomes will be supported to the policy makers in greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario development and serve as a basis for formulating emission reduction strategies of the city.

Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE—A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System

Greenhouse gas emissions need to be drastically reduced to mitigate the environmental impacts caused by climate change, and to lead to a transformation of the European energy system. A model landscape consisting of four final energy consumption sector models with high spatial (NUTS-3) and temporal (hourly) resolution and the multi-energy system model ISAaR is extended and applied to investigate the transformation pathway of the European energy sector in the deep emission mitigation scenario solidEU. The solidEU scenario describes not only the techno-economic but also the socio-political contexts, and it includes the EU27 + UK, Norway, and Switzerland. The scenario analysis shows that volatile renewable energy sources (vRES) dominate the energy system in 2050. In addition, the share of flexible sector coupling technologies increases to balance electricity generation from vRES. Seasonal differences are balanced by hydrogen storage with a seasonal storage profile. The deployment rates of vRES in solidEU show that a fast, profound energy transition is necessary to achieve European climate protection goals.

Environmental effects of food waste reduction using system dynamics approach

ABSTRACT The present paper aims to study the energy consumption of the food industry and to evaluate the effects of reducing energy consumption on pollution emission in the future. The proposed integrated system dynamics simulation model focuses on the feedback processes and interaction between the population, economic growth, food demand, energy consumption, and air pollution. Diminishing food waste rate and developing energy productivity are considered to create energy management and pollution emission mitigation scenarios. The results revealed that the food demand and energy consumption will grow by 1.35% and 3.31% per year, respectively. Under these circumstances, the amount of pollution emission, with annual growth of 4%, reaches 1.13 million tons in 2031. The results of improving energy productivity and reducing of food waste under population growth also confirmed that these policies can be effective in energy management and pollution. Through a 1% reduction in the food waste scenario, we can save 0.95% on energy demand and control pollution emissions by 0.83%. Also, for every 1% improvement in energy efficiency, we can expect a 5.24% reduction in energy consumption and a 4.82% decline in pollution emissions. Thus, by controlling the energy demand in Iran, an effective step can be taken to improve the quality of the environment.

An analysis of emission reduction strategy for light and heavy-duty vehicles pollutions in high spatial–temporal resolution and emission

Traffic as the main source of urban air pollution created severe problems for human health and sustainability. To propose a bottom-up method in emissions reduction, accurate emission inventories of vehicles in a medium-sized city are developed. Traffic emission factors were obtained using traffic flow data, traffic control cameras, and International Vehicle Emission (IVE) model to calculate CO, VOCs, NOx, SOx, and PM of passenger cars, taxis, and urban buses emission inventory. Annual overall emissions of CO, VOCs, NOx, SOx, and PM pollutants, respectively, are 346, 20.9, 25, 44.4, and 0.5 kt/year. VOC and CO emissions in the start-up phase are in the scale of the running phase, while NOx, SOx, and PM allocate much less than the running phase. The highest emission value of SOx and PM occurs in arterials while CO, VOC, and NOx in highways. Eight renovation scenarios have been designed to evaluate their environmental and economic efficiency. Two scenarios entitled "renovation of carbureted, Euro 1 and Euro 2 LDV" and "renovation of high mileage Euro 1 and Euro 2 standard urban buses" showed the highest decrease in pollution emission and pollution social costs. For these two important scenarios, implementation costs were calculated at 477 and 46M$, while social costs decrease are calculated to be 172.6 and 77.5M$, respectively. Renovation of vehicles could benefit both the government and society by reducing fuel consumption and pollutant emission. The emission mitigation scenarios considering mobile sources could be a guide for adopting policies in developing countries. Governmental and social cost-share and governmental and social repayment because of fuel-saving costs have also been calculated.

How does unsustainable urbanization affect driving behavior and vehicular emissions? Evidence from Iran

Poor urban development and social instability are the results of unsustainable urbanization. These urban risks could significantly influence public culture and might even lead to aggressive driving styles. A practical approach comprising of model estimation and real-world measurements is applied here to discuss the role of urban development and public culture in the driving behavior and vehicle emissions in an unsustainable urbanized city, i.e. Isfahan, Iran. Over 60,000 speed-time data were collected from the streets for several time slices to develop the ISFahan Driving Cycle (ISFDC). ISFDC is assessed against the DCs of foreign countries and other Iranian cities to discuss the contribution of the studied factors to driving behavior. ISFDC is then entered into the IVE model to estimate the exhaust emission factors (EFs) under real-urban conditions, while IVE is primarily adjusted to the real-world experiments. Also, several emission mitigation scenarios that are likely to mitigate vehicular emissions are evaluated. Results show that ISFDC is already unique around the world, but unsustainable urbanization in terms of poor urban development and aggressive actions/reactions plays a vital role in the driving behavior of Iranian drivers. Unsustainable urbanization causes the CO and NOx EFs of Isfahan vehicles to be 40 and 25.47 % higher than those in Tehran, and 60 and 57 % higher than those in Beijing, respectively. Among the studied EFs, CO EF is more affected by the level of urban development. Ammonia, Formaldehydes, and Benzene are consecutively ranked as the major toxic gases in the Isfahan vehicle exhausts.

Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.

A mitigation scenario for Latin American power-related carbon dioxide emissions

ABSTRACT The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed an ambitious carbon dioxide emission mitigation scenario with specific recommendations for Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. However, this mitigation scenario entails significant limitations. The expected electricity production for the region is quite low compared to global average figures. This situation could endanger the sustainable development of the region. In this paper, we discuss an alternative mitigation scenario that seeks the compliance of both climate objectives and future energy requirements. This new scenario is based on the widespread integration of smart grids and renewable energies. High capacity smart transmission grids could enlarge existing transnational electricity markets. Results show that Latin America could contribute with 4.1% of the global mitigation effort up to 2040 (the IEA’s 450 S scenario for the region is 3.6%) with an additional investment of 7% in large-scale renewable-based generation plants and HDVC transmission links. As a main result, future regional generation output is aligned with the requirements of national policy scenarios outlined at the climate convention.

Transition towards eco-efficiency in municipal solid waste management to reduce GHG emissions: The case of Brazil

Developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), are implementing mitigation strategies for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in specific sectors, such as municipal solid wastes (MSW), to reduce the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this research was to evaluate different GHG emission mitigation scenarios in MSW management in Brazil, countrywide and at municipal level, to determine the best transition towards eco-efficiency (TEE) relative to the current scenario. Environmental (GHG emissions, using the CO2ZW tool) and economic (operating and investment costs and climate change externalities) indicators were determined and analysed per ton of MSW treated, based on field work and national data. An analysis was made of six scenarios of transitions of MSW management and treatment via wet processes (composting and mechanical biological treatment – MBT), dry routes (recycling and incineration) and disposal in sanitary landfills (DSL). The most eco-efficient scenario for Brazil and the municipalities with the largest populations, such as São Paulo and Sorocaba, corresponded to: 70% composting and 30% DSL for wet MSW and; 70% recycling and 30% DSL for dry MSW. In the smaller municipalities such as Humaitá, Piedade and Santa Cruz do Sul, the best results in TEE were: 42% composting and 58% DSL for wet MSW and; 41% recycling and 59% DSL for dry MSW. The scenarios showing the lowest TEE performance were MBT and incineration, due to the high costs of these technologies in Brazil.

Interfuel substitution, hydroelectricity consumption and CO2 emissions mitigation in Malaysia: evidence from a transcendental logarithm (trans-log) cost function framework.

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the interfuel substitution elasticities between hydropower and the fossil fuels of coal and natural gas used in the generation of electricity for Malaysia. Due to the violation of the assumption behind the ordinary least squares (OLS) method on account of the correlated error terms in the system of equations, the econometrics techniques of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) was adopted to obtain the parameter estimates using dataset that covers the period 1988 to 2016. The main finding is that there exists substantial substitution possibility between hydropower and fossil fuels in the generation of electricity for Malaysia. CO2 emissions mitigation scenarios were also conducted to explore the possible effects of substituting fossil fuels for hydropower to generate electricity. The results show that switching from high carbon-emitting fuels to renewable energy such as hydropower will substantially reduce CO2 emission and assist the country towards achieving the carbon emissions reduction targets. Policy recommendations are offered in the body of the manuscript.

Water level changes, subsidence, and sea level rise in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta

Being one of the most vulnerable regions in the world, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta presents a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 200 million inhabitants. It is often considered as a delta mostly exposed to sea-level rise and exacerbated by land subsidence, even if the local vertical land movement rates remain uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the water-level (WL) changes over 1968 to 2012, using an unprecedented set of 101 water-level gauges across the delta. Over the last 45 y, WL in the delta increased slightly faster (∼3 mm/y), than global mean sea level (∼2 mm/y). However, from 2005 onward, we observe an acceleration in the WL rise in the west of the delta. The interannual WL fluctuations are strongly modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variability, with WL lower than average by 30 to 60 cm during co-occurrent El Niño and positive IOD events and higher-than-average WL, by 16 to 35 cm, during La Niña years. Using satellite altimetry and WL reconstructions, we estimate that the maximum expected rates of delta subsidence during 1993 to 2012 range from 1 to 7 mm/y. By 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta. This study provides a robust regional estimate of contemporary relative WL changes in the delta induced by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise, giving a basis for developing climate mitigation strategies.

Role of Energy Efficiency for Low Carbon Transformation of India

Globally there is a greater commitment among national governments towards the achievement of the global 2°C temperature stabilisation target and doubling the rate of energy intensity improvement. India’s energy demand and energy imports have risen sizably over the past two decades. In 2014, India imported 83 % of its oil, 29 % of coal and 68 % of natural gas demand. Improving energy efficiency (EE) is identified among the prominent options in India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) communicated to the Paris Agreement. EE, other than mitigating carbon emissions, also contributes to improving energy security and air quality. EE measures are hence pervasive as they anchor efficient and cleaner technologies in the supply-chain covering production, distribution and consumption. This paper analyses role of EE technologies, policies and measures in India under global carbon emissions mitigation scenarios that target temperature stabilisation ‘well-below 2°C’. The analysis is carried out using ANSWER-MARKAL, an energy system optimisation model. The analysis focuses on high impact opportunities including the energy intensive industry sectors (electricity supply, industry and transport). The results are reported for medium-term (year - 2030) and long-term (year - 2050). The analysis concludes that energy efficiency measures reduce CO2 emissions, promote cleaner production by reducing fossil-based energy and deliver benefits of energy security and improved air quality. The paper finally highlights the elements of the policy roadmap for transitions towards clean and energy efficient technology future in the medium and long-term.

A description of four science-based corporate GHG target-setting methods

PurposeAmidst a growing interest in greenhouse gas (GHG) science-based target setting by businesses, it is becoming increasingly urgent to understand how these are set in theory and in practice.Design/methodology/approachUsing a model framework for science-based methods, the authors compare four different science-based target-setting methods: sectoral decarbonization approach, linear emission reduction to target year, GHG emissions per unit of value added and corporate finance approach to climate stabilizing targets. Input and output variables, GHG scopes, allocation principles and mathematical formulations are described, followed by a discussion of the differences and similarities between methods.FindingsThe authors show GHG emission mitigation scenarios are as important in the determination of targets as the allocation principle.Practical implicationsFor this reason, businesses should apply well-bellow 2ºC scenarios with robust sectoral and regional granularity and the science community should consider the needs of these groups of stakeholders.Social implicationsPolicymakers should actively support efforts by corporations to set science-based targets and ensure that the research they commission can be translated into practical action by non-party stakeholders.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the understanding of the theory and practice of science-based targets.

Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris

Limiting climate change below a 2 °C temperature increase this century will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and the transition to a climate-friendly, low carbon society. In this paper, the economic impact of a less carbon-intensive economy on agricultural markets is estimated by means of an integrated modelling framework. First, the macroeconomic impacts of moving into a global low carbon economy are analysed by applying different carbon taxes in a general equilibrium modelling framework. Second, the potential adoption of emission mitigation technologies is quantified and used in the Aglink-Cosimo model to assess the impacts on agricultural markets of emission mitigation scenarios compatible with the 2.0 °C target prescribed in the Paris Agreement. Results for 2030 show reductions in global non-CO2 GHG emissions from agriculture (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide) by 10, 16 and 19% in 50, 100 and 150 USD/t CO2eq global carbon tax scenarios, respectively (Least Developed Countries excluded). Only between 0.6% and 1.3% of the global reduction is caused by indirect macroeconomic effects, although at the regional level they can cause up to 5.8% of the reduction in agricultural emissions. Results suggest that ambitious mitigation targets can provoke significant negative impacts on agricultural production and underline the importance of integrating GHG emission developments and impacts of related policies into agricultural market projections.

Are carbon dioxide emission reductions compatible with sustainable well-being?

Efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions remain elusive due to the strong correlation with economic development. The progress of economic development therefore needs to be assessed by considering the harmful effects of CO2 emissions as a loss of intergenerational well-being. This has been the motivation behind the development of the inclusive wealth (IW) index, which is proposed as a viable alternative to the conventional gross domestic product for tracking the progress towards the well-being of a nation. By using nonparametric machine learning methods, this study aims to explore the impact of CO2 emission reduction on well-being under the IW framework via three different energy pathways, namely, the supply, mix and efficiency pathways, involving 105 countries from 1992 to 2014. Results showed that the lowest growth in global CO2 emissions was projected by the efficiency scenario, which forecasted an increase by 2040 of 15.12% relative to the 2014 level. However, this scenario might lead to a potential loss in future well-being by up to 0.3%, compared to the two other scenarios. These findings suggest that the commitment to CO2 emission reduction needs to be evaluated cautiously by considering its impact on intergenerational well-being, particularly for developing economies. In contrast, high-income economies were encouraged to set up a more ambitious target of CO2 emission reduction since doing so would also lead to a potential increase of their intergenerational well-being. This study verifies a robust link between sustainable development and CO2 emission mitigation scenarios, which is essential for promoting future climate actions.