CO2 Emission Factors Research Articles

Reduction of CO2 emissions by recycling low-potential heat from the Benfield CO2 removal process at a natural gas hydrogen production plant

AbstractThe EU policies related to CO2 emission strictly define the stages of carbon neutrality achieving. According to these regulations, all production installations that emit carbon dioxide will be charged additional emission fees from 2026 to fully in 2035. Analysis of the increasing emission fees shows that in some industries incurring such additional costs will result in a lack of profitability of the products. Industries directly related to the food sector, such as nitrogen fertiliser production, are strategic in the economies of all countries. Nitrogen fertilisers are produced from ammonia, which is synthesised on a large scale from hydrogen and nitrogen. Hydrogen is produced by natural gas reforming with water vapour resulting in syngas (mixture of H2, CO, CO2, H2O), which CO in the next step reacts with water vapour (water gas shift reaction) producing H2 and CO2. CO2 is separated from hydrogen using the Benfield method. The analysis of the Benfield process (one process of hydrogen production) shows a possible way to reduce CO2 emission by optimising heat balance. It was shown that in the proposed technology the heat recovery reaches 89%, while the level below 30% was reported for other available technologies. The proposed solution is based on recirculation and reuse of heat, which is lost in other technologies. The analysis is for a process balance in a medium-sized hydrogen production installation. The analysis considers also the correlations with other installations thermally linked to hydrogen production. The economic balance showed the great financial benefits of this solution. In the scenario discussed, the CO2 emission factor was reduced by 20%. Graphical Abstract

Onboard test-based exhaust emission factors for marine diesel engines on anchor handling tug supply vessels

In order to accurately assess China’s port air pollution caused by AHTS (Anchor Handling Tug Supply Vessels) ships, 46 diesel engines on 27 AHTS ships were tested for onboard emissions using a large gas analyzer to statistically analyze their fuel-based and power-based emission factors. The results show that fuel-based NOx-emission factors for MEs, SEs and AEs before and after the use of the SCR system are 45.4, 38.24,33.04 g/kg and 6.35, 4.98, 5.82 g/kg, CO-emission factors are 7.95, 6.30, 7.96 g/kg and 6.90, 6.93, 8.32 g/kg, THC-emission factors are 0.49, 0.64, 0.25 g/kg and 0.42, 0.47, 0.22 g/kg, and CO2-emission factors are 3121.62, 3121.34, 3093.12 g/kg and 3088.14,3091.40, 3085.21 g/kg, respectively. Power-based NOx-emission factors for MEs, SEs and AEs before and after the use of the SCR system are 9.71, 8.61, 7.58 g/(kW·h) and 1.37, 1.23, 1.33 g/(kW·h), CO-emission factors are 1.71, 2.08, 1.84 g/(kW·h) and 1.47, 1.53, 1.93 g/(kW·h), THC-emission factors are 0.10, 0.14, 0.05 g/(kW·h) and 0.09, 0.13, 0.06 g/(kW·h), and CO2-emission factors are 671.73, 700.58, 718.46 g/(kW·h) and 664.42, 694.16, 716.92 g/(kW·h), respectively. The power-based emission factor is closely related to the diesel engine load, and the relationship between different exhaust emissions and diesel engine load shows different patterns. In addition, it was found that the NOx emissions of the ship decreased significantly to meet the IMO Tier III requirements after running SCR. The emission factors of CO, HC and CO2 have no obvious change whether SCR systems were operated or not. The AHTS marine engine emission factors obtained in this paper are highly relevant and can provide reliable data for establishing a suitable emission inventory for medium and high speed engineering support vessels.

Fuel consumption and exhaust emissions from Euro 6d vehicles fueled by innovative LPG/DME blend

The aim of this research was to investigate the exhaust emissions from vehicles when fueled by a new and fully renewable fuel if made of bio-LPG and renewable dimethyl ether (DME), in comparison with standard gasoline. For this purpose, DME was mixed with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and used to fuel three bi-fuel LPG/gasoline spark-ignition engines light-duty vehicles. The suitable fuel blend was selected based on several octane tests using CFR engines. Exhaust emissions were tested over the WLTC and over the hot-start CADC cycles, as well as on the road. All Euro 6 standards were well fully met over the WLTC with both fuels. Switching from gasoline to LPG/DME fueling, the CO and NOx emission factors increased for two vehicles, whereas THC and NMHC decreased. Regarding particulates, for two vehicles the emission factors decreased, too. Generally, when the vehicles were driven on the CADC, lower gaseous emissions were observed compared to WLTC: excluding one vehicle, when switching from gasoline to LPG/DME fueling, the overall emission profiles reflected those of the same vehicles run on the WLTC. The unregulated particulate emissions measured over both testing cycles reflect what was detected for the regulated ones. Except for PN10, which was not measured, all regulated emissions were found to meet the (most severe) Euro 7 standards proposed at first by the European Commission. RDE tests showed that all vehicle emissions obtained from on-road tests were also found to meet the RDE standards, regardless of the fueling. Concerning CO2 emissions, LPG/DME fueling guaranteed a systematic decrease for all vehicles and cycles, both on road and in the laboratory. The present investigation aims at demonstrating that the innovative LPG/DME 80 %/20 % (m/m) blend not only can be deemed as potentially suitable for GHG emissions reduction, as long as both DME and propane are obtained from renewable sources, but even compliant with EN 589 and both Euro 6 and part of preliminary Euro 7 exhaust emission proposal.

Enclosing gases by gas circulation to establish photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial granular system in pseudo-closed sequencing batch reactors for greenhouse gas emission mitigation

Photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial aerobic granular sludge (AGS) presents great potential in carbon emission mitigation and operation cost saving in wastewater treatment processes. This study used gas circulation to enclose the photosynthetic O2 and the emitted CO2 for the development of photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial AGS in a pseudo-closed sequencing batch reactors (SBR), targeting greenhouse gas emission mitigation (including CO2, N2O and CH4). Results showed that photosynthetic O2-supported AGS with abundant Cyanobacteria were achieved in this pseudo-closed SBR under strong light conditions. Although gas circulation enclosed acidic CO2, excessive Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in biomass still led to the increase of pH, followed by the occurrence of CO2 limitation and the loss of functional strains and extracellular polymeric substances, eventually collapsing granular structure. Interestingly, gas circulation can reduce GHG emissions due to prolonged contact time between gases and microorganisms. Chl-a contents showed an inversely proportional relationship with CO2 emission factors (0.04–0.61 kg-CO2/kg-COD), but over-high algae in biomass may induce more N2O emissions (0.45 % to 5.3 %) by affecting nitrification and denitrification processes. Compared to CO2 and N2O, the emission of CH4 was negligible. It was estimated that zero non-CO2 GHG emissions could be achieved when stable granules containing Chl-a content of > 5.8 mg/g-MLVSS. This study proposed that achieving low-carbon photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial AGS requires minimizing the adverse impact of existing algae on denitrification and nitrification.

Deep CO2 emissions facilitated by localized shear deformation: A case study of the Karakoram fault system, western Tibet

Strike-slip faults play a significant role in creating deeply penetrating fractures with high permeability, thus promoting rapid migration of CO2-rich fluids to the surface. However, there are rare observations regarding how strike-slip movement could affect deep CO2 emissions. Here, we focus on the Karakoram fault system (KKFS), western Tibet, to estimate diffuse soil CO2 fluxes and to unravel potential controlling factors for CO2 emissions. Average CO2 fluxes of geothermal fields range in 22–2475 g m−2 d−1, significantly higher than the across-fault profiles (6–116 g m−2 d−1). A mass balance model based on δ13C-CO2 and CO2 concentration of soil gases reveals that deep carbon constitutes 49.1–91.5 % (average = 73.9 %) and 0.2–40.5 % (average = 25.5 %) of soil-gas carbon released from geothermal fields and across-fault profiles, respectively. Deep carbon could be produced by thermal decomposition of crustal rocks considering CO2-rich fluids with radiogenic helium isotopes. Strikingly, higher CO2 fluxes preferentially occur in geothermal fields along a bending segment of the KKFS, where localized shear deformation is prominent as documented by high slip rates over geological timescales, dense splay faults, clustering of earthquake events, and elevated strain rates. We suggest that high stress acting on the KKFS bend could enhance the deformation and fracturing of fault zone rocks, leading to production of metamorphic CO2 and efficient release of CO2-rich fluids through the highly permeable fault system. Our results could shed new light on CO2 origins and fluxes of strike-slip faults that are characterized by spatially heterogeneous strain partitioning and thus localized enhanced shear deformation.

CO2 emission characteristics of China VI hybrid vehicles

As the ownership of hybrid vehicles soars, accurately predicting and assessing CO2 emissions become crucial. This study utilized the AVL portable emission measurement system (PEMS) to reveal the actual CO2 emission of three types of hybrid vehicles. Firstly, engine speed is a key factor influencing CO2 emissions of range-extended electric vehicle (REEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), while vehicle specific power (VSP) affects HEV. Secondly, in terms of fuel consumption, when the battery levels of REEV and PHEV are low, their fuel consumption tends to be higher than that of HEV. Specifically, the CO₂ emission factor (the amount of CO2 emitted by a vehicle per unit distance during operation) ratios of REEV to PHEV range from 1.19 to 1.89, while the ratios of REEV to HEV are between 1.41 and 2.57. Thirdly, in terms of NOX control, HEV performed significantly worse.

Implications of public policies performance on social inequality worldwide

This study probes the linkage between public policy (represented by GDP growth, inflation, CO2 emissions, and unemployment factors) and social inequality indicators, paying attention to economic, environmental, and social elements. The study questions the impact of these policies on overall social inequality as one measure and its separate dimensions, which are gender, income, education, and life expectancy, whereas data was gathered between 2010 and 2021 from the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for 139 countries. The linear regression revealed a significant relationship that explained 51% of the variance in overall social inequality, except for unemployment. Regarding separate dimensions of social inequality, the findings point out that GDP growth and inflation both affect life and gender inequality, whereas unemployment only affects income inequality; on the other hand, the CO2 emissions factor has an inverse effect on all dimensions of inequality (income, life expectancy, education, and gender inequalities). Considering the implications, increased CO2 emissions would reduce income inequality by boosting job creation, but they also pose environmental and health hazards, necessitating sustainable development strategies. Rising unemployment exacerbates income distribution, demonstrating the need for policies that enhance job stability and reduce inequality. Additionally, it necessitates investing in healthcare and education, eradicating gender inequality, and implementing sustainable strategies to foster economic growth while considering the consequences of inflation on life and gender justice. Thus, realizing these principles would build a sustainable and equitable society that balances economic enhancement with environmental protection and achieves equal opportunity.

Real-World Emission Characteristics of Diesel Pallet Trucks under Varying Loads: Using the Example of China

Diesel pallet trucks, a type of heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs), have historically been a vital component in logistics and transport due to their high payload capacity. However, they also present significant challenges, particularly in terms of emissions which contribute substantially to urban air pollution. Traditional HDDTs emission measurement methods, such as engine bench tests and those used in laboratory settings, often fail to capture real-world emission behaviors accurately. This study specifically examines the real-world emission characteristics of diesel pallet trucks exceeding 30 t under varying loads (unloaded, half loaded, and fully loaded) and different road conditions (urban, suburban, and high-speed). Considering that data quality is the key to the accuracy of the scheme, this research utilized a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) to capture real-time emissions data of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and total hydrocarbons (THC). Key findings demonstrate a direct correlation between vehicle load and emission factors, with the emission factors for CO2, CO, and NOX increasing by 39.5%, 105.4%, and 22.7%, respectively, from unloaded to fully loaded states under comprehensive operating conditions. Regression analyses further provide an emission factor prediction model for HDDPTs, underscoring the continuous relationship between speed, load, and emission rates. These findings provide a scientific basis for pollution control strategies for diesel trucks.

Carbon Dioxide Emission Characteristics and Operation Condition Optimization for Slow-Speed and High-Speed Ship Engines

Greenhouse gas emissions from ships are estimated to be approximately 1002 million tons per year; this is the largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emission source among nonroad transportation. Previous studies have generally estimated CO2 emissions using fuel- or power-based emission factors based on fuel consumption or engine power. In this study, CO2 emissions from vessels were measured using a portable emission measurement system. Emission characteristics were analyzed according to the vessel’s operation conditions and compared with the results of other studies. Generally, the higher the rpm value, the more CO2 is emitted, and the emissions at the maximum rpm differ depending on the type and size of the engine. In order to minimize the emissions by ships, those from high seas should be reduced rather than nearby ports. In addition, a method of establishing optimal operating conditions in consideration of economic and environmental perspectives was proposed. Fuel-based emission factors elicited in this study were constant regardless of engine rpm. The fuel-based emission factors of each engine were found to be similar at 3144.22 and 3150.58 kg-CO2/tonne-fuel. Therefore, distinguishing CO2 emission factors according to engine type is not necessary, and additional research is required to understand the emission factors of each fuel type.

CO2 emissions of tropical peat soils under controlled groundwater table depths: A laboratory-based experiment

The groundwater table (GWT) is widely recognized as a key factor influencing CO2 emissions in tropical peatlands. However, previous studies investigating this relationship have reported diverse results. This variability likely stems from the dynamic nature of field-based groundwater conditions. To address this, our study investigated the relationship between controlled GWT and CO2 emissions in a laboratory experiment using PVC columns filled with peat soil. GWT depths were adjusted to 20 cm, 30 cm, 40 cm, 50 cm, and 60 cm within a large container filled with peat pore water. CO2 emissions were measured using an Infra Red Gas Analyzer - Environmental Gas Monitoring-4 instrument, with a closed-chamber system. Our findings revealed significant differences in CO2 emissions between treatments, except for the transition from 20 cm to 30 cm GWT. Correlation analysis showed a positive correlation (R² = 0.25). Notably, CO2 emission factor values based on average yearly emission rates displayed a substantial increase with decreasing GWT, exhibiting a strong exponential relationship (R² = 0.99).

Spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of CO2 emissions under regional collaboration: Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China

Against the backdrop of global climate change and the “dual carbon” target, cities have a significant responsibility to achieve carbon reduction targets. As a crucial urban agglomeration in northern China, effectively balancing economic growth with CO2 emission reduction to achieve high-quality economic development remains a significant challenge that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should address both presently and in the future. The objective of this study is to utilize nighttime lighting data and energy consumption information to quantify the CO2 emissions of diverse cities within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region spanning from 2006 to 2020. The research aims to analyze the spatial progression patterns of CO2 emissions across these urban centers, identify key determinants and their interrelations, and delve into the underlying mechanisms pivotal for advancing carbon mitigation strategies within urban agglomerations. The results indicate that: with an exception in Beijing where CO2 emissions slightly decreased compared to 2006, CO2 emissions increased across cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by 2020. High-value CO2 emission areas are primarily concentrated in central of the study area, exhibiting negative spatial correlation characteristics. Based on its urban development positioning, it is imperative for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration to formulate and implement carbon reduction strategies on innovative development, industrial upgrading, and ecological protection among other aspects towards coordinated low-carbon development.

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions when using methane-hydrogen fuel

AIM. To determine optimal modes for methane decarbonization, as well as to assess CO2 emissions during subsequent combustion of the pyrolysis gas, including together with the natural gas in various ratios.METHODS. The processes of thermochemical conversion of methane into hydrogen and condensed carbon in a reactor with external heating of the walls were considered. The thermal energy required for gas pyrolysis is obtained by burning a mixture of air and part of the pyrolysis gas, which is free from solid carbon particles. When performing numerical studies of pyrolysis processes, a kinetic model of one-dimensional flow of the reacting mixture was used with an external supply of thermal energy through the walls of an axisymmetric channel (tubular reactor).RESULTS. The mechanism of chemical interaction during the thermal decomposition of methane was developed, taking into account the formation of condensed carbon in the temperature range from 1000 to 1200 °C. The main energy indicators and the composition of pyrolysis gas were determined at various values of the pyrolysis temperature and the degree of carbon conversion.CONCLUSION. Carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of pyrolysis gas, including together with the natural gas, were assessed. When developing pyrolysis technologies and applying them on an industrial scale, it is advisable to use part of the resulting pyrolysis gas with a high hydrogen content to provide thermal energy for the processes of thermal decomposition of the feedstock. According to the calculations, the share of this part reaches ≈ 35% of the total amount of pyrolysis gas. This approach, as opposed to burning the natural gas for this purpose, significantly reduces CO2 emissions. The combustion of the resulting pyrolysis gas, even without removing residual hydrocarbons, is characterized by currently quite acceptable CO2 emission factors of ≈ 7-25 t CO2/TJ.

Underestimation of carbon dioxide emissions from organic-rich agricultural soils

Organic-rich agricultural soils, including drained peatlands, are hotspots for biogenic CO2 emissions. Due to microbial mineralisation, the organic carbon (OC) content of these soils transitions to that of mineral soils, but it remains unclear how the residual OC content controls the rate of CO2 emission. Here we show that area-scaled CO2 emissions from topsoils with >6% OC are not controlled by OC content and OC density in a comprehensive laboratory incubation experiment. National greenhouse gas inventories assign area-scaled CO2 emission factors to soils with >12% OC, while soils with 6-12% OC are mostly disregarded or treated with lower emission factors. In this respect, our results suggest that CO2 emissions from organic soils could be underestimated by up to 40% in the Danish national inventory submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We conclude that global underestimation of area-scaled CO2 emissions from 6-12% OC soils occurs in countries with large proportions of organic soils in transition from organic to organo-mineral soils due to agricultural management. Refining CO2 emission estimates for 6-12% OC soils is critical for the accuracy of national inventories, but also for recognising the climate benefits of initiatives to rewet drained organic soils.

Toward sustainable development: Exploring the relationship between economic fitness and carbon emissions in BRICS

Global warming and energy security are currently the two most challenging issues facing the globe. Economic fitness (EF) is a country's ability to deal with complex issues like environmental degradation (ED) and energy insecurity, which are major global concerns. The significance of this study lies in the fact that it investigates the influencing factors of CO2 emissions (CO2E), as these factors contribute to SDGs. This study, which uses panel data from 1995 to 2015, aims to investigate the impact of EF on CO2E from biofuels (BFs) and fossil fuels (FFs) combustion in the BRICS countries. The FGLS and PCSE results show an N-shaped relationship between EF and BFs-CO2E, and an inverted N-shaped association between EF and FFs-CO2E. The results of this study are robust even after including control variables. In addition, urbanization, economic growth, and financial development are positively related to both BFs' & FFs' CO2E. The policy implication is that government should focus on increasing country EF to reduce CO2E. Moreover, this study provides crucial information for the policy makers and practitioners looking for the pathway to reduce CO2E and achieve sustainable development.

The role of renewable energy and total factor productivity in reducing carbon emissions: A case of top-ranked nations in the renewable energy country attractiveness index

On the one hand, economies, particularly developing ones, need to grow. On the other hand, climate change is the most pressing issue globally, and nations should take the necessary measures. Such a complex task requires new theoretical and empirical models to capture this complexity and provide new insights. Our study uses a newly developed theoretical framework that involves renewable energy consumption (REC) and total factor productivity (TFP) alongside traditional factors of CO2 emissions. It provides policymakers with border information compared to traditional models, such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), being limited to income and population. Advanced panel time series methods are also employed, addressing panel data issues while producing not only pooled but also country-specific results.20 Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) nations are considered in this study. The results show that REC, TFP, and exports reduce CO2 emissions with elasticities of 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3, respectively. Oppositely, income and imports increase emissions with elasticities of 0.8 and 0.3. Additionally, we show that RECAI countries are commonly affected by global and regional factors. Moreover, we find that shocks can create permanent changes in the levels of the factors but only temporary changes in their growth rates.The main policy implication of the findings is that authorities should implement measures boosting TFP and REC. These factors are driven mainly by technological progress, innovation, and efficiency gains. Thus, they can simultaneously reduce emissions while promoting long-run green economic growth, which addresses the complexity mentioned above to some extent.

Emissions and exposure to NOx, CO, CO2 and PM2.5 from a gas stove using reference and low-cost sensors

Gas stoves and cooking are significant sources of indoor pollution. Using a combination of regulatory and calibrated low-cost sensors (LCS) we measured NO, NO2, CO and CO2 emission rates (g hr−1) and emission factors (g J−1) from a natural-gas stove and oven. The emission rates for gaseous pollutants were significantly higher, by factors of 2.6–29, from the oven compared to the stove for every pollutant measured.To evaluate the indoor air concentrations, we used a calibrated low-cost sensor (TSI Inc, AirAssure) to examine indoor concentration of CO, CO2, NO2 and PM2.5 for one month in one U.S. home with a gas stove during normal activities, including cooking. Indoor concentrations of one or more pollutants exceeded the U.S. EPA's Air Quality Index (AQI) level of 100 (for CO, NO2, and PM2.5) or 2000 ppm (for CO2) for an average of 99 min per day. The AirAssure, with only the manufacturer's calibration, was an excellent indicator of times when indoor concentrations of CO, CO2, and NO2 exceeded these reference levels. Without in-situ calibration, the AirAssure underestimated in-home PM2.5 concentrations. After in-situ calibration, the AirAssure correctly identified 1-min periods when the AQI was >100 85% of the time (up from 46% of the time without calibration).

Characteristics and influencing factors of CO2 emission from inland waters in China

Characteristics and influencing factors of CO2 emission from inland waters in China

Characteristics and distribution of greenhouse gas emissions from motorcycles in Hanoi, Vietnam

Motorcycles contribute to the notable emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants in urban areas. These vehicles are the most widely used means of road transportation in Vietnam. This study is the first to use the EMISENS model in combination with the IVE modelling system to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from motorcycles at tier 3 in IPCC guideline. There are more than 8700 motorcycles circulating on the roads in Hanoi per hour. With the characteristics of motorcycles compiled, the average age of motorcycles is around 11 years, and each vehicle travels an average of 16.4 km per day with an average start-up frequency of 3.46. The emission factors of greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 when running (erunning) were 72.55 and 0.24 grams per km, respectively. The emission factors for CO2, CH4 and N2O during vehicle start-up (estart-up) were 6.96, 0.53 and 0.0009 grams per start-up, respectively. Inventory emission data from 2021-2023 reveal that that motorcycles in Hanoi emitted nearly 4.6 mil tons of CO2e per year. Emission distribution is concentrated in inner-city districts and some residential areas at the intersections with provincial roads, national highways, and industrial parks.

Hybrid geothermal-fossil power cycle analysis in a Polish setting with a focus on off-design performance and CO2 emissions reductions

Growing demand for electricity due to economic development contributes to increased greenhouse gas production, especially CO2. However, emissions can be limited by enhancing the efficiency of primary energy conversion, such as integrating geothermal energy into coal-fired power plants. Therefore, this paper proposes replacing conventional feed-water heaters with geothermal preheaters to create a hybridized system. This study was based on a numerical model validated at a selected Polish power unit. The model was subsequently calibrated for off-design conditions to facilitate partial load analysis. The obtained characteristics outperformed those of the non-hybrid unit, generating over 18 MW of electric power output. Such an improvement could potentially boost the unit's net efficiency by more than 2.6 %. This enhancement is significant as power units typically operate under part load for approximately 90 % of the time, hence the need to evaluate the performance characteristics of hybridized units in those states. Furthermore, the research outlines the potential decrease in the plant's CO2 emission factor, with reductions reaching up to 6.5 % under off-design conditions. Based on a gap analysis of the existing literature, this paper's comprehensive partial load evaluation serves as a new addition to research on hybridized systems.

How to effectively achieve air pollutant reduction and carbon mitigation in China's industrial sector? A study based on decomposition analysis and scenario simulation.

Reducing air pollutant and carbon emissions in the industrial sector is crucial for the ecological civilization construction in China. In this study, we first employ the generalized Divisia index method to analyze the driving factors of industrial CO2 and SO2 emissions, incorporating fixed asset investment and R&D input. The key sub-sectors that exert significant impact on emissions of the whole industrial sector are identified. And then, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are utilized to predict future trends and potential for reducing CO2 and SO2 emissions. Furthermore, the carbon peaking time of the industrial sub-sectors is investigated. The results indicate that fixed asset investment and R&D input both have played positive roles in CO2 and SO2 emissions. Emission reduction is mainly driven by investment emission intensity, output emission intensity, and R&D emission intensity. Sub-sectors S09, S10, S11, S12, and S18 present substantial potential for reducing air pollutant and carbon emissions. Although SO2 emissions from the industrial sector are projected to decrease in the future, the peak of CO2 emissions have not been reached. The carbon peak time for the whole industrial sector is predicted in 2025, with the peak of 7892.33 Mt. The five key sub-sectors are anticipated to reach the respective carbon emission peaks at different times. Therefore, to effectively implement industrial air pollutant and carbon reduction, the role of fixed asset investment and R&D input should be fully utilized, and high-energy consumption and high-emission sub-sectors should be prioritized for action.