Emergency General Surgery Outcomes Research Articles

Validation of Artificial Intelligence-Based POTTER Calculator in Emergency General Surgery Patients Undergoing Laparotomy: Prospective, Bi-Institutional Study.

The POTTER calculator, a widely used interpretable artificial intelligence (AI) risk calculator, has been validated in population-based studies and shown to predict outcomes in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients better than surgeons. We sought to prospectively validate POTTER. Patients undergoing an emergency exploratory laparotomy for non-trauma indications at two Academic Medical Centers between June 2020 and March 2022 were included. POTTER preoperative risk calculations and postoperative outcomes were systematically recorded. POTTER's performance in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality, septic shock, respiratory failure, bleeding, and pneumonia was assessed using the c-statistic methodology. A total of 361 patients were included. The median age was 63 years (IQR: 51-72), 45.4% were females, and the overall mortality and morbidity were 24.1% and 51.4%, respectively. POTTER predicted mortality accurately with a c-statistic of 0.90. POTTER also accurately predicted the occurrence of individual postoperative complications, with c-statistics ranging between 0.80 and 0.89. This is the first prospective validation of the AI-enabled POTTER calculator. The superior accuracy, user-friendliness, and interpretability of POTTER make it a useful bedside tool for preoperative patient and family counseling.

SP2.6 - Improvements in patient discharge efficiency and safety: the impact of a dedicated Clinical Pharmacist in an Emergency General Surgery team

Abstract Introduction Efficiency in management of acute surgical admissions is related to safe clinical practice combined with good patient flow, optimising use of limited capacity. Preventable morbidity and discharge delays may significantly compromise outcomes for Emergency General Surgery (EGS) teams managing increasing numbers of admissions. Aim To investigate the effectiveness of a prescribing pharmacist employed within an EGS team in a DGH, with specific focus on patient discharge times by facilitating discharge prescription efficiency, including venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis. Methods Data was collected for two separate 1-month time periods in 2021 (Period A), before the appointment of a pharmacist and in 2023 (Period B), after pharmacist appointment. Data was analysed for (i) differences in times related to ‘to take home’ (TTH) medication prescription and (ii) prescribing of post-operative extended enoxaparin prophylaxis (EEP) following discharge. Results Mean time for prescription of TTH medications during working hours in Period A was 100 minutes (n=133, range 0-433 minutes) compared with 67 minutes (n=120, range 0-416 minutes) in Period B. Pharmacist prescribing accounted for 51.6% of TTH prescriptions with a mean prescription time of 18.6 minutes (range 0-389 minutes). During Period A, 36% of patients (n=48) who had a VTE assessment mandating EEP received this on discharge compared to 100% in Period B (n=31). Conclusions This data highlights an improvement in prescribing of TTH medications since appointment of a dedicated EGS pharmacist. The consequences of such improvements include more rapid patient flow, better patient experience and heightened patient safety by prevention of post-operative VTE through EEP.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Emergency General Surgery Outcomes Among Older Adult Patients

IntroductionRacial and ethnic disparities in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients have been well described in the literature. Nonetheless, the burden of these disparities, specifically within the more vulnerable older adult population, is relatively unknown. This study aims to investigate racial and ethnic disparities in clinical outcomes among older adult patients undergoing EGS. MethodsThis retrospective analysis used data from 2013 to 2019 American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program database. EGS patients aged 65 y or older were included. Patients were categorized based on their self-reported race and ethnicity. The primary outcomes evaluated were in-hospital mortality, 30-d mortality, and overall morbidity. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between race/ethnicity and postoperative outcomes while adjusting for relevant factors including age, comorbidities, functional status, preoperative conditions, and surgical procedure. ResultsA total of 54,132 patients were included, of whom 79.8% identified as non-Hispanic White, 9.5% as non-Hispanic Black (NHB), 5.8% as Hispanic, and 4.2% as non-Hispanic Asian. After risk adjustment, compared to non-Hispanic White patients, NHB, non-Hispanic Asian, and Hispanic patients had decreased odds of 30-d mortality. For 30-d readmission and reoperation, differences among groups were comparable. However, NHB patients had significantly increased odds of overall morbidity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.26; P < 0.001) and postoperative complications including sepsis, venous thromboembolism, and unplanned intubation. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with lower odds of postoperative myocardial infarction and stroke. ConclusionsAmong older adult patients undergoing emergency general surgery, minority patients experienced higher morbidity rates, but paradoxical disparities in mortality were detected. Further research is necessary to identify the cause of these disparities and develop targeted interventions to eliminate them.

Validation of the emergency surgery score (ESS) in a UK patient population and comparison with NELA scoring: a retrospective multicentre cohort study.

Accurate risk scoring in emergency general surgery (EGS) is vital for consent and resource allocation. The emergency surgery score (ESS) has been validated as a reliable preoperative predictor of postoperative outcomes in EGS but has been studied only in the US population. Our primary aim was to perform an external validation study of the ESS in a UK population. Our secondary aim was to compare the accuracy of ESS and National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) scores. We conducted an observational cohort study of adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy over three years in two UK centres. ESS was calculated retrospectively. NELA scores and all other variables were obtained from the prospectively collected Emergency Laparotomy and Laparoscopic Scottish Audit (ELLSA) database. The primary and secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively. A total of 609 patients were included. Median age was 65 years, 52.7% were female, the overall mortality was 9.9% and 23.8% were admitted to ICU. Both ESS and NELA were equally accurate in predicting 30-day mortality (c-statistic=0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.71-0.85) for ESS and c-statistic=0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.88) for NELA, p=0.196) and predicting postoperative ICU admission (c-statistic=0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.81) for ESS and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85) for NELA, p=0.092). In the UK population, ESS and NELA both predict 30-day mortality and ICU admission with no statistically significant difference but with higher c-statistics for NELA score. Both scores have certain advantages, with ESS being validated for a wider range of outcomes.

No healthcare coverage, big problem: lack of insurance for older population associated with worse emergency general surgery outcomes

IntroductionOlder populations, being a unique subset of patients, have poor outcomes for emergency general surgery (EGS). In regions lacking specialized medical coverage for older patients, disparities in healthcare provision lead...

Improving outcomes in emergency general surgery: Construct of a collaborative quality initiative.

Emergency general surgery conditions are common, costly, and highly morbid. The proportion of excess morbidity due to variation in health systems and processes of care is poorly understood. We constructed a collaborative quality initiative for emergency general surgery to investigate the emergency general surgery care provided and guide process improvements. We collected data at 10 hospitals from July 2019 to December 2022. Five cohorts were defined: acute appendicitis, acute gallbladder disease, small bowel obstruction, emergency laparotomy, and overall aggregate. Processes and inpatient outcomes investigated included operative versus nonoperative management, mortality, morbidity (mortality and/or complication), readmissions, and length of stay. Multivariable risk adjustment accounted for variations in demographic, comorbid, anatomic, and disease traits. Of the 19,956 emergency general surgery patients, 56.8% were female and 82.8% were White, and the mean (SD) age was 53.3 (20.8) years. After accounting for patient and disease factors, the adjusted aggregate mortality rate was 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2-3.7), morbidity rate was 27.6% (95% CI, 27.0-28.3), and the readmission rate was 15.1% (95% CI, 14.6-15.6). Operative management varied between hospitals from 70.9% to 96.9% for acute appendicitis and 19.8% to 79.4% for small bowel obstruction. Significant differences in outcomes between hospitals were observed with high- and low-outlier performers identified after risk adjustment in the overall cohort for mortality, morbidity, and readmissions. The use of a Gastrografin challenge in patients with a small bowel obstruction ranged from 10.7% to 61.4% of patients. In patients who underwent initial nonoperative management of acute cholecystitis, 51.5% had a cholecystostomy tube placed. The cholecystostomy tube placement rate ranged from 23.5% to 62.1% across hospitals. A multihospital emergency general surgery collaborative reveals high morbidity with substantial variability in processes and outcomes among hospitals. A targeted collaborative quality improvement effort can identify outliers in emergency general surgery care and may provide a mechanism to optimize outcomes. Therapeutic/Care Management; Level III.

Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in Complex Abdominal Wall Reconstruction Referrals.

Background: Health disparities are pervasive in surgical care. Particularly racial and socioeconomic inequalities have been demonstrated in emergency general surgery outcomes, but less so in elective abdominal wall reconstruction (AWR). The goal of this study was to evaluate the disparities in referrals to a tertiary hernia center. Methods: A prospectively maintained hernia database was queried for patients who underwent open ventral hernia (OVHR) or minimally invasive surgical (MISR) repair from 2011 to 2022 with complete insurance and address information. Patients were divided by home address into in-state (IS) and out-of-state (OOS) referrals as well as by operative technique. Demographic data and outcomes were compared. Standard and inferential statistical analyses were performed. Results: Of 554 patients, most were IS (59.0%); 334 underwent OVHR, and 220 underwent MISR. IS patients were more likely to undergo MISR (OVHR: 45.6% vs. 81.5%, laparoscopic: 38.2% vs. 14.1%, robotic: 16.2% vs. 4.4%; p < 0.001) when compared to OOS referrals. Of OVHR patients, 44.6% were IS and 55.4% were OOS. Patients' average age and BMI, sex, ASA score, and insurance payer were similar between IS and OOS groups. IS patients were more often Black (White: 77.9% vs. 93.5%, Black: 16.8% vs. 4.3%; p < 0.001). IS patients had more smokers (12.1% vs. 3.2%; p = 0.001), fewer recurrent hernias (45.0% vs. 69.7%; p < 0.001), and smaller defects (155.7 ± 142.2 vs. 256.4 ± 202.9cm2; p < 0.001). Wound class, mesh type, and rate of fascial closure were similar, but IS patients underwent fewer panniculectomies (13.4% vs. 34.1%; p < 0.001), component separations (26.2% vs. 51.4%; p < 0.001), received smaller mesh (744.2 ± 495.6 vs. 975.7 ± 442.3cm2; p < 0.001), and had shorter length-of-stay (4.8 ± 2.0 vs. 7.0 ± 5.5days; p < 0.001). There was no difference in wound breakdown, seroma requiring intervention, hematoma, mesh infection, or recurrence; however, IS patients had decreased wound infections (2.0% vs. 8.6%; p = 0.009), overall wound complications (11.4% vs. 21.1%; p = 0.016), readmissions (2.7% vs. 13.0%; p = 0.001), and reoperations (3.4% vs. 11.4%; p = 0.007). Of MISR patients, 80.9% were IS and 19.1% were OOS. In contrast to OVHR, MISR IS and OOS patients had similar demographics, preoperative characteristics, intraoperative details, and postoperative outcomes. Conclusion: Although there were no differences in referred patients for MISR, this study demonstrates the racial disparities that exist among our IS and OOS complex, open AWR patients. Awareness of these disparities can help clinicians work towards equitable access to care and equal referrals to tertiary hernia centers.

Association of social determinants of health International Classification of Disease, Tenth Edition clinical modification codes with outcomes for emergency general surgery and trauma admissions

BackgroundPatients with Acute Care Surgery needs (ie, emergency general surgery diagnosis or trauma admission) are at particularly high risk for nonmedical patient-related factors that can be important drivers of healthcare outcomes. These social determinants of health are typically ascertained at the geographic area level (ie, county or neighborhood) rather than at the individual patient level. Recently, the International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition created codes to capture health hazards related to patient socioeconomic and psychosocial circumstances. We sought to characterize the impact of these social determinants of health–related codes on perioperative outcomes among patients with acute care surgery needs. MethodsPatients diagnosed between 2017 and 2020 with acute care surgery needs (ie, emergency general surgery diagnosis or a trauma admission) were identified in the California Department of Healthcare Access and information Patient Discharge database. Data on concomitant social determinants of health–related codes (International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition Z55-Z65), which designated health hazards related to socioeconomic and psychosocial (socioeconomic and psychosocial, respectively) circumstances, were obtained. After controlling for patient factors, including age, sex, race, payer type, and admitting hospital, the association of socioeconomic and psychosocial codes with perioperative outcomes and hospital disposition was analyzed. ResultsAmong 483,280 with an acute care surgery admission (emergency general surgery: n = 289,530, 59.9%; trauma: n = 193,705, 40.1%) mean age was 56.5 years (standard deviation: 21.5) and 271,911 (56.3%) individuals were male. Overall, 16,263 (3.4%) patients had a concomitant socioeconomic and psychosocial diagnosis code. The percentage of patients with a concurrent social determinants of health International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition diagnosis increased throughout the study period from 2.6% in 2017 to 4.4% in 2020. Patients that were male (odds ratio 1.89; 95% confidence interval 1.82, 1.96), insured by Medicaid (odds ratio 5.43; 95% confidence interval 5.15, 5.72) or self-pay (odds ratio 3.04; 95% confidence interval 2.75, 3.36) all had higher odds of having an social determinants of health International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition diagnosis. Black race did not have a significant association with an social determinants of health International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition diagnosis (odds ratio 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.94, 1.04); however, Hispanic (odds ratio 0.44; 95% confidence interval 0.43, 0.46) and Asian (odds ratio 0.40; 95% confidence interval 0.36, 0.44) race/ethnicity was associated with a lower odds of having an social determinants of health International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition diagnosis. After controlling for competing risk factors on multivariable analyses, the risk-adjusted probability of hospital postoperative death was 3.1% (95% confidence interval 2.8, 3.4) among patients with a social determinants of health diagnosis versus 5.9% (95% confidence interval 5.9, 6.0) (odds ratio 0.48; 95% confidence interval 0.44, 0.54) among patients without a social determinants of health diagnosis. Risk-adjusted complications were 26.7% (95% confidence interval 26.1, 37.3) among patients with a social determinants of health diagnosis compared with 31.9% (95% confidence interval 31.7, 32.0) (odds ratio 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.71, 0.77) among patients without a social determinants of health diagnosis. ConclusionInternational Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition social determinants of health code use was low, with only 3.4% of patients having documentation of a socioeconomic and psychosocial circumstance. The presence of an International Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision, Tenth Edition social determinants of health code was not associated with greater odds of complications or death; however, it was associated with longer length of stay and higher odds of being discharged to a skilled nursing facility.

Maintenance Matters and Compliance Conundrums—Optimization of Emergency General Surgery Outcomes in the Prehospital Phase of Care

Maintenance Matters and Compliance Conundrums—Optimization of Emergency General Surgery Outcomes in the Prehospital Phase of Care

Virtual triage from freestanding emergency departments: a propensity score-weighted analysis of short-term outcomes in emergency general surgery.

Freestanding emergency departments (FSEDs) have generated improved hospital metrics, including decreased ED wait times and increased patient selection. Patient outcomes and process safety have not been evaluated. This study investigates the safety of FSED virtual triage in the emergency general surgery (EGS) patient population. A retrospective review evaluated all adult EGS patients admitted to a community hospital between January 2016 and December 2021 who either presented at a FSED and received virtual evaluation from a surgical team (fEGS) or presented at the community hospital emergency department and received in-person evaluation from the same surgical group (cEGS). Patients' demographics, acute care utilization history, and clinical characteristics at the onset of the index visit were used to build a propensity score model and stabilized Inverse Probability of Treatment Weights (IPTW) were used to create a weighted sample. Multivariable regression models were then employed to the weighted sample to evaluate the treatment effect of virtual triage compared to in-person evaluation on short-term outcomes, including length of stay (LOS) and 30-day readmission and mortality. Variables which occurred during the index visit (such as surgery duration and type of surgery) were adjusted for in the multivariable analyses. Of 1962 patients, 631 (32.2%) were initially evaluated virtually (fEGS) and 1331 (67.8%) underwent an in-person evaluation (cEGS). Baseline characteristics demonstrated significant differences between the cohorts in gender, race, payer status, BMI, and CCI score. Baseline risks were well balanced in the IPTW-weighted sample (SD range 0.002-0.18). Multivariable analysis found no significant differences between the balanced cohorts in 30-day readmission, 30-day mortality, and LOS (p > 0.05 for all). Patients who undergo virtual triage have similar outcomes to those who undergo in-person triage for EGS diagnoses. Virtual triage at FSED for these EGS patients may be an efficient and safe means for initial evaluation.

Association of Intellectual Disability with Delayed Presentation and Worse Outcomes in Emergency General Surgery.

To examine the association between intellectual disability and both severity of disease and clinical outcomes among patients presenting with common emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions. Accurate and timely diagnosis of EGS conditions is crucial for optimal management and patient outcomes. Individuals with intellectual disabilities may be at increased risk of delayed presentation and worse outcomes for EGS; however, little is known about surgical outcomes in this population. Using the 2012-2017 Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of adult patients admitted for 9 common EGS conditions. We performed multivariable logistic and linear regression to examine the association between intellectual disability and the following outcomes: EGS disease severity at presentation, any surgery, complications, mortality, length of stay, discharge disposition, and inpatient costs. Analyses were adjusted for patient demographics and facility traits. Of 1,317,572 adult EGS admissions, 5,062 (0.38%) patients had a concurrent ICD-9/-10 code consistent with intellectual disability. EGS patients with intellectual disabilities had 31% higher odds of more severe disease at presentation compared with neurotypical patients (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.17-1.48). Intellectual disability was also associated with a higher rate of complications and mortality, longer lengths of stay, lower rate of discharge to home, and higher inpatient costs. EGS patients with intellectual disabilities are at increased risk of more severe presentation and worse outcomes. The underlying causes of delayed presentation and worse outcomes must be better characterized to address the disparities in surgical care for this often under-recognized but highly vulnerable population.

Financial Toxicity in Emergency General Surgery: Novel Propensity-Matched Outcome Comparison.

Financial toxicity describes the harmful effect of individual treatment costs and fiscal burdens that have a compounding negative impact on outcomes in surgery. While this phenomenon has been widely studied in surgical oncology, the purpose of this study was to perform a novel exploration of the impact of financial toxicity in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients throughout the US. The Nationwide Readmissions Database for January and February 2018 was queried for all EGS patients aged 18 to 65 years. One-to-one propensity matching was performed with and without risk for financial toxicity. The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcomes were venous thromboembolism (VTE), prolonged length of stay (LOS), and readmission within 30 days. There were 24,154 EGS patients propensity matched. The mortality rate was 0.2% (n = 39), and the rate of VTE was 0.5% (n = 113). With financial toxicity, there was no statistically significant difference for mortality (p = 0.08) or VTE (p = 0.30). The rate of prolonged LOS was 6.2% (n = 824), and the risk was increased with financial toxicity (risk ratio 1.24 [1.12 to 1.37]; p < 0.001). The readmission rate was 7.0% (n = 926), and the risk with financial toxicity was increased (risk ratio 1.21 [1.10 to 1.33]; p < 0.001). The mean count of comorbidities per patient per admission during readmission within 1 year with financial toxicity was 2.1 ± 1.9 versus 1.8 ± 1.7 without (p < 0.001). Despite little difference in the rate of mortality or VTE, EGS patients at risk for financial toxicity have an increased risk of readmission and longer LOS. Fewer comorbidities were identified at index admission than during readmission in patients at risk for financial toxicity. Future studies aimed at reducing this compounding effect of financial toxicity and identifying missed comorbidities have the potential to improve EGS outcomes.

Association of Preoperative Blood Transfusion on Postoperative Outcomes in Emergency General Surgery

IntroductionEmergency general surgery (EGS) patients often present with anemia, in which preoperative transfusions are performed to mitigate anemia-associated risks. However, transfusions have also been noted to cause worse postoperative outcomes. This study examined how transfusion-associated outcomes vary at different levels of anemia. Materials and methodsThe American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2019 was used to identify patients who had undergone any of 12 major EGS procedures using Current Procedural Terminology codes. Patients were divided into two cohorts based on receipt of preoperative transfusion. Cohorts were subdivided into anemia severity levels and propensity score–matched within each using patient demographic and comorbidity variables. We analyzed 30-day postoperative outcomes, including morbidity, mortality, and return to odds ratio (OR), using univariate Chi-squared tests, Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results595,407 EGS cases were identified. Receiving preoperative transfusion were 44.45% (n = 3058) of severely anemic, 10.94% (n = 9076) of moderately anemic, 1.34% (n = 1370) of mildly anemic, and 0.174% (n = 704) of no anemia patients. Transfusion resulted in an increased overall morbidity in the severe (OR 1.54), moderate (OR 1.50), mild (OR 1.71), and no anemia (OR 1.85) groups. Mortality increased in the moderate (OR 1.27), mild (OR 1.61), and no anemia (OR 1.76) subgroups. In severe anemia, transfusion status and mortality were not significantly associated. ConclusionsTransfusion is associated with higher morbidity and mortality rates in those with higher hematocrit levels, even after controlling for pre-existing comorbidities. A restrictive transfusion strategy should be considered to avoid risks for those with a hematocrit level more than 24%.

A National Evaluation of Emergency General Surgery Outcomes Among Hospitalized Cardiac Patients

IntroductionEmergency general surgery among cardiac surgery patients is increasingly common and consequential. We sought to characterize the true burden of emergency general surgery among hospitalized complex cardiac patients. MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of the 2016-2017 National Inpatient Sample. We included adult patients with a primary diagnosis of complex cardiac disease. We then compared patients who underwent emergency general surgery (GS-OR) with those who did not (non–GS-OR). The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes included length of stay and hospitalization costs. ResultsWe identified 10.2 million patients with a primary diagnosis of complex cardiac disease, of which 148,309 (1.4%) underwent GS-OR. Mortality rates were significantly higher in the GS-OR group (11.0% versus 5.0%, P < 0.001). Among all cardiac patients, GS-OR was associated with 2.2 times increased odds of death (aOR: 2.2, P < 0.001). GS-OR patients also had longer length of stays (14.1 versus 5.8 d, P < 0.001). Among all cardiac patients, GS-OR was associated with an 8.1-day longer length of stay (P < 0.001). GS-OR patients were less often routinely discharged home (31.7% versus 45.3%, P < 0.001) and incurred higher inpatient costs ($46,136 versus $16,303, P < 0.001). Among all cardiac patients, GS-OR patients incurred $30,102 higher hospitalization costs (P < 0.001). ConclusionsEmergency general surgery among cardiac surgery patients is associated with a greater than two-fold increase in mortality, longer length of stays, higher rates of nonroutine discharge, and higher hospitalization costs. Emergency general surgery complications account for 4.0% of total inpatient costs of cardiac surgery patients and merit further study.

Performance of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) for nonelective infrainguinal open revascularization procedures (NEIOR)

The Emergency Surgery Score has been previously validated as a reliable; tool to predict postoperative outcomes in emergency general surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of the Emergency Surgery Score for infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting. The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was retrospectively analyzed for patients undergoing infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting between 2015 and 2019. The performance of the Emergency Surgery Score in predicting mortality in each procedure was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. A total of 5,027 patients underwent infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting with median age 68 (±11.66 standard deviation), with 1,666 females (33.1%). The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7%. The Emergency Surgery Score correlated with 30-day mortality (area under the curve was 0.738). The Emergency Surgery Score also predicted risk of death/discharge to hospice (area under the curve 0.756), discharge to rehab (area under the curve 0.643), renal failure (area under the curve 0.741), postintervention ventilation requirement (0.684), stroke (0.717), cardiopulmonary arrest (0.657), and septic shock (0.697). A cumulative frequency table of mortality with Emergency Surgery Score was used to partition patients into quartiles of Emergency Surgery Score ≤5, Emergency Surgery Score of 6, Emergency Surgery Score of 7 or 8, and Emergency Surgery Score ≥9. A Cochran-Armitage test showed linear trend toward increased 30-day mortality among the quartiles with increasing Emergency Surgery Score (P < .001), with quartile 4 (Emergency Surgery Score ≥10) having 13 times odds of increased 30-day mortality compared to reference quartile 1 (Emergency Surgery Score ≤4). Emergency Surgery Score performance accurately predicts mortality for infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting procedures. It may be useful for preoperative risk stratification and for national benchmarking after nonelective open lower extremity procedures.

SP4.1.3 Validation of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) in the UK patient population and comparison with NELA scoring: a retrospective multi-centre cohort study

Abstract Aims Accurate risk scoring in emergency general surgery (EGS) is vital for consent, resource allocation and benchmarking quality of care. The emergency surgery score (ESS) is a reliable predictor of post-operative outcomes in EGS, but has only been studied in the US population. Our primary aim was to perform an external validation study of the ESS in a UK population. Our secondary aim was to compare the accuracy of ESS and NELA scores. Methods We conducted an observational cohort study of adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy over three years in two UK centres. ESS was calculated retrospectively. NELA score and all other variables were obtained from the prospectively held Emergency Laparotomy and Laparoscopic Scottish Audit (ELLSA) database. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome was need for post-operative ICU admission. Results 609 patients were included. Both ESS and NELA were good predictors of 30-day mortality (c-statistic=0.78 [95% CI: 0.71–0.85] for ESS and c-statistic=0.83 [95% CI: 0.77–0.88] for NELA). Similarly, both scores were good predictors of need for post-operative ICU admission (c-statistic=0.76 [95% CI: 0.71–0.81] for ESS and 0.80 [95% CI: 0.76–0.85] for NELA). There was no significant difference in performance between the two scores for predicting 30-day mortality (p=0.20) or need for ICU admission (p=0.09). Conclusion We recommend that ESS can be used in the UK population. It is non-inferior to NELA in predicting 30-day mortality and need for ICU admission, but has been validated for a wider range of outcomes and does not require scoring of intra-operative variables.

Performance of quick sequential organ failure assessment and modified age disease adjusted qadSOFA for the prediction of outcomes in emergency general surgery patients.

Sepsis is a highly prevalent condition and is associated with a reported in-hospital mortality rate up to 40% in patients with abdominal sepsis requiring emergency general surgery (EGS). The quick sequential organ failure assessment score (qSOFA) has not been studied for EGS patients. Retrospective cohort study in adult patients undergoing abdominal EGS at a university tertiary care center from 2016 to 2018. The primary outcome was mortality. The effect of clinical variables on outcomes was assessed in univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Based on these results, the qSOFA score was modified. The performance of scores was assessed using receiver operating characteristics. Five hundred seventy-eight patients undergoing abdominal EGS were included. In-hospital mortality was 4.8% (28/578). Independent predictors for mortality were mesenteric ischemia (odds ratio [OR] 15.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2-48.6; p < 0.001), gastrointestinal tract perforation (OR 4.9; 95% CI 1.7-14.0; p = 0.003), 65 years or older (OR 4.1; 95% CI 1.5-11.4; p = 0.008), and increasing qSOFA (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.8; p = 0.007). The modified qSOFA (qadSOFA) was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the qSOFA and qadSOFA for mortality was 0.715 and 0.859, respectively. Optimal cutoff value was identified as qadSOFA ≥ 3 (Youden Index 64.1%). This is the first study investigating the qSOFA as a predictor for clinical outcomes in EGS. Compared with the qSOFA, the new qadSOFA revealed an excellent predictive power for clinical outcomes. Further validation of qadSOFA is warranted. Diagnostic test/criteria; Level II.

Research priorities in emergency general surgery (EGS): a modified Delphi approach

BackgroundEmergency general surgery (EGS) patients account for more than one-third of admissions to hospitals in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. The associated mortality of these patients has been quoted as approximately eight times higher than that of elective surgical admissions. This study used a modified Delphi approach to identify research priorities in EGS. The aim was to establish a research agenda using a formal consensus-based approach in an effort to identify questions relevant to EGS that could ultimately guide research to improve outcomes for this cohort.MethodsThree rounds were conducted using an electronic questionnaire and involved health care professionals, research personnel, patients and their relatives. In the first round, stakeholders were invited to submit clinical research questions that they felt were priorities for future research. In rounds two and three, participants were asked to score individual questions in order of priority using a 5-point Likert scale. Between rounds, an expert panel analysed results before forwarding questions to subsequent rounds.ResultsNinety-two EGS research questions were proposed in Phase 1. Following the first round of prioritisation, forty-seven questions progressed to the final phase. A final list of seventeen research questions were identified from the final round of prioritisation, categorised as condition-specific questions of high interest within general EGS, emergency colorectal surgery, non-technical and health services research. A broad range of research questions were identified including questions on peri-operative strategies, EGS outcomes in older patients, as well as non-technical and technical influences on EGS outcomes.ConclusionsOur study provides a consensus delivered framework that should determine the research agenda for future EGS projects. It may also assist setting priorities for research funding and multi-centre collaborative strategies within the academic clinical interest of EGS.

Invited Commentary: To Transfer or Not? Outcomes in Emergency General Surgery.

Invited Commentary: To Transfer or Not? Outcomes in Emergency General Surgery.

Socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with greater mortality after high-risk emergency general surgery.

Socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with worse outcomes after elective surgery, but the effect on emergency general surgery (EGS) remains unclear. We examined the association of socioeconomic disadvantage and outcomes after EGS procedures and investigated whether admission to hospitals with comprehensive clinical and social resources mitigated this effect. Adults undergoing 1 of the 10 most burdensome high- and low-risk EGS procedures were identified in six 2014 State Inpatient Databases. Socioeconomic disadvantage was assessed using Area Deprivation Index (ADI) of patient residence. Multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for patient and hospital factors were used to evaluate the association between ADI quartile (high >75 percentile vs. low <25 percentile), and 30-day readmission, in-hospital mortality, and discharge disposition. Effect modification between ADI and (a) level 1 trauma center and (b) safety-net hospital status was tested. A total of 103,749 patients were analyzed: 72,711 low-risk (70.1%) and 31,038 high-risk procedures (29.9%). Patients from neighborhoods with high socioeconomic disadvantage had a higher proportion with ≥3 comorbidities (41.9% vs. 32.0%), minority race/ethnicity (66.3% vs. 42.4%), and Medicaid (28.8% vs. 14.7%) and were less likely to be treated at level 1 trauma centers (18.3% vs. 27.7%; p < 0.001 for all). Adjusting for competing factors, high socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with increased in-hospital mortality after high-risk procedures (odd ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.66; p = 0.04) and higher odds of non-home discharge (odd ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.30; p = 0.03) for low-risk procedures. Socioeconomic disadvantage was not associated with 30-day readmission for either procedure group. Level 1 trauma status and safety-net hospital did not meaningfully mitigate effect of ADI for any outcome. Socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with increased mortality after high-risk procedures and higher odds of non-home discharge after low-risk procedures. This effect was not mitigated by either level 1 trauma or safety-net hospitals. Interventions that specifically address the needs of socially vulnerable communities will be required to significantly improve EGS outcomes for this population. Prognostic and Epidemiologic, level III.