Electrons In Outer Radiation Belt Research Articles

Simulating the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt Electron Fluxes and Their Upper Limit: A Unified Physics‐Based Model Driven by the AL Index

AbstractUsing particle and wave measurements from the Van Allen Probes, a 2‐D Fokker‐Planck simulation model driven by the time‐integrated auroral index (AL) value is developed. Simulations for a large sample of 186 storm‐time events are conducted, demonstrating that the AL‐driven model can reproduce flux enhancement of the MeV electrons. More importantly, the relativistic electron flux enhancement is determined by the sustained strong substorm activity. Enhanced substorm activity results in increased chorus wave intensity and reduced background electron density, which creates the required condition for local electron acceleration by chorus waves to MeV energies. The appearance of higher energy electrons in radiation belts requires a higher level of cumulative AL activity after the storm commencement, which acts as a type of switch, turning on progressively higher energies for longer and more intense substorms, at critical thresholds.

Machine‐Learning Based Identification of the Critical Driving Factors Controlling Storm‐Time Outer Radiation Belt Electron Flux Dropouts

AbstractUnderstanding and forecasting outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts is one of the top concerns in space physics. By constructing Support Vector Machine (SVM) models to predict storm‐time dropouts for both relativistic and ultra‐relativistic electrons over L = 4.0–6.0, we investigate the nonlinear correlations between various driving factors (model inputs) and dropouts (model output) and rank their relative importance. Only time series of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are adopted as model inputs. A comparison of the performance of the SVM models that uses only one driving factor at a time enables us to identify the most informative parameter and its optimal length of time history. Its accuracy and the ability to correctly predict dropouts identifies the SYM‐H index as the governing factor at L = 4.0–4.5, while solar wind parameters dominate the dropouts at higher L‐shells (L = 6.0). Our SVM model also gives good prediction of dropouts during completely out‐of‐sample storms.

Cross‐Scale Modeling of Storm‐Time Radiation Belt Variability

AbstractDuring geomagnetic storms relativistic outer radiation belt electron flux exhibits large variations on rapid time scales of minutes to days. Many competing acceleration and loss processes contribute to the dynamic variability of the radiation belts; however, distinguishing the relative contribution of each mechanism remains a major challenge as they often occur simultaneously and over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. In this study, we develop a new comprehensive model for storm‐time radiation belt dynamics by incorporating electron wave‐particle interactions with parallel propagating whistler mode waves into our global test‐particle model of the outer belt. Electron trajectories are evolved through the electromagnetic fields generated from the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) global geospace model. Pitch angle scattering and energization of the test particles are derived from analytical expressions for quasi‐linear diffusion coefficients that depend directly on the magnetic field and density from the magnetosphere simulation. Using a study of the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm, we demonstrate that resonance with lower band chorus waves can produce rapid relativistic flux enhancements during the main phase of the storm. While electron loss from the outer radiation belt is dominated by loss through the magnetopause, wave‐particle interactions drive significant atmospheric precipitation. We also show that the storm‐time magnetic field and cold plasma density evolution produces strong, local variations of the magnitude and energy of the wave‐particle interactions and is critical to fully capturing the dynamic variability of the radiation belts caused by wave‐particle interactions.

Machine Learning Interpretability of Outer Radiation Belt Enhancement and Depletion Events

AbstractWe investigate the response of outer radiation belt electron fluxes to different solar wind and geomagnetic indices using an interpretable machine learning method. We reconstruct the electron flux variation during 19 enhancement and 7 depletion events and demonstrate the feature attribution analysis called SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) on the superposed epoch results for the first time. We find that the intensity and duration of the substorm sequence following an initial dropout determine the overall enhancement or depletion of electron fluxes, while the solar wind pressure drives the initial dropout in both types of events. Further statistical results from a data set with 71 events confirm this and show a significant correlation between the resulting flux levels and the average AL index, indicating that the observed “depletion” event can be more accurately described as a “non‐enhancement” event. Our novel SHAP‐Enhanced Superposed Epoch Analysis (SHESEA) method can offer insight in various physical systems.

Relativistic electron flux growth during storm and non-storm periods as observed by ARASE and GOES satellites

Variations of relativistic electron fluxes (E ≥ 1 MeV) and wave activity in the Earth magnetosphere are studied to determine the contribution of different acceleration mechanisms of the outer radiation belt electrons: ULF mechanism, VLF mechanism, and adiabatic acceleration. The electron fluxes were measured by Arase satellite and geostationary GOES satellites. The ULF power index is used to characterize the magnetospheric wave activity in the Pc5 range. To characterize the VLF wave activity in the magnetosphere, we use data from PWE instrument of Arase satellite. We consider some of the most powerful magnetic storms during the Arase era: May 27–29, 2017; September 7–10, 2017; and August 25–28, 2018. Also, non-storm intervals with a high solar wind speed before and after these storms for comparison are analyzed. Magnitudes of relativistic electron fluxes during these magnetic storms are found to be greater than that during non-storm intervals with high solar wind streams. During magnetic storms, the flux intensity maximum shifts to lower L-shells compared to intervals without magnetic storms. For the considered events, the substorm activity, as characterized by AE index, is found to be a necessary condition for the increase of relativistic electron fluxes, whereas a high solar wind speed alone is not sufficient for the relativistic electron growth. The enhancement of relativistic electron fluxes by 1.5–2 orders of magnitude is observed 1–3 days after the growth of the ULF index and VLF emission power. The growth of VLF and ULF wave powers coincides with the growth of substorm activity and occurs approximately at the same time. Both mechanisms operate at the first phase of electron acceleration. At the second phase of electron acceleration, the mechanism associated with the injection of electrons into the region of the magnetic field weakened by the ring current and their subsequent betatron acceleration during the magnetic field restoration can work effectively.Graphical

A Statistical Study on the Acceleration Conditions of Ultrarelativistic Electrons in the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

AbstractUsing the data from Van Allen Probes, we statistically study the acceleration conditions of ultrarelativistic electrons (Ek > 3 MeV) in the Earth's outer radiation belt. Based on the different high energy cutoffs of ultrarelativistic electrons, the acceleration events of ultrarelativistic electrons are divided into the four groups of “3.4 MeV events,” “5.2 MeV events,” “6.3 MeV events,” and “7.7 MeV events.” According to different solar wind and substorm conditions during the recovery stage, we classify solar wind into three categories: no high‐speed flows, short‐duration high‐speed flows, and long‐duration high‐speed flows. Substorms are divided into continuous substorm activity and non‐continuous substorm activity. Our statistical results show that (a) The different solar wind speeds can cause enhancements of ultrarelativistic electrons with different energies. The high solar wind speed is more important in the acceleration of ultrarelativistic electrons with higher energies (7.7 MeV) than lower energies (3.4, 5.2, and 6.3 MeV). (b) The different substorm activities during the recovery stage can cause enhancements of ultrarelativistic electrons with different energies. Continuous intense substorms in the early recovery stage can contribute to the rapid recovery and enhancements of ultrarelativistic electrons. The timing, intensity, and duration of substorms during the recovery stage are important to the acceleration of ultrarelativistic electrons. (c) Relativistic (1 MeV) electrons are the direct “source” of ultrarelativistic electrons (3.4, 5.2, and 6.3 MeV) in the outer radiation belt. These can help us further understand the electron dynamics of the Earth’s outer radiation belt.

Dependence of Electron Flux Dropouts in the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt on Energy and Driving Parameters During Geomagnetic Storms

AbstractUsing 5‐year of measurements from Van Allen Probes, we present a survey of the statistical dependence of the Earth's outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts during geomagnetic storms on electron energy and various driving parameters including interplanetary magnetic field Bz, PSW, SYM‐H, and AE. By systematically investigating the dropouts over energies of 1 keV–10 MeV at L‐shells spanning 4.0–6.5, we find that the dropouts are naturally divided into three regions. The dropouts show much higher occurrence rates at energies below ∼100 keV and above ∼1 MeV compared to much smaller occurrence rate at intermediate energies around hundreds of keV. The flux decays more dramatically at energies above ∼1 MeV compared to the energies below ∼100 keV. The flux dropouts of electrons below ∼100 keV strongly depend on magnetic local time (MLT), which demonstrate high occurrence rates on the nightside (18–06 MLT), with the highest occurrence rate associated with northward Bz, strong PSW and SYM‐H, and weak AE conditions. The strongest flux decay of these dropouts is found on the nightside, which strongly depends on PSW and SYM‐H. However, there is no clear MLT dependence of the occurrence rate of relativistic electron flux dropouts above ∼1 MeV, but the flux decay of these dropouts is more significant on the dayside, with stronger decay associated with southward IMF Bz, strong PSW, SYM‐H, and AE conditions. Our statistical results are crucial for understanding of the fundamental physical mechanisms that control the outer belt electron dynamics and developing future potential radiation belt forecasting capability.

Upper Limit on Outer Radiation Belt Electron Flux Based on Dynamical Equilibrium

AbstractIn the Earth's radiation belts, an upper limit on the electron flux is expected to be imposed by the Kennel‐Petschek mechanism, through the generation of exponentially more intense whistler‐mode waves as the trapped flux increases above this upper limit, leading to fast electron pitch‐angle diffusion and precipitation into the atmosphere. Here, we examine a different upper limit, corresponding to a dynamical equilibrium in the presence of energetic electron injections and both pitch‐angle and energy diffusion by whistler‐mode chorus waves. We first show that during sustained injections, the electron flux energy spectrum tends toward a steady‐state attractor resulting from combined chorus wave‐driven energy and pitch‐angle diffusion. We derive simple analytical expressions for this steady‐state energy spectrum in a wide parameter range, in agreement with simulations. Approximate analytical expressions for the corresponding equilibrium upper limit on the electron flux are provided as a function of the strength of energetic electron injections from the plasma sheet. The analytical steady‐state energy spectrum is also compared with maximum electron fluxes measured in the outer radiation belt during several geomagnetic storms with strong injections, showing a good agreement at 100–600 keV.

New Perspective on Phase Space Density Analysis for Outer Radiation Belt Enhancements: The Influence of MeV Electron Injections

AbstractObservation of growing phase space density (PSD) peak in the outer electron radiation belt has been considered evidence for local wave‐driven acceleration as a primary cause of radiation belt enhancement. However, recent studies showed that strong substorm‐associated MeV electron injections can also cause significant radiation belt enhancements on fast timescales (∼10s min). Such rapid enhancements pose challenges for determining true spatial PSD profiles. To address this, we conduct a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of electron flux and PSD during an enhancement event, using Van Allen Probes data. Our analysis reveals rapid and intermittent flux enhancements. During these rapid enhancements, inbound spacecraft observed false PSD peaks, due to spacecraft's relatively slow movement. However, we identify time intervals of stable fluxes between enhancements, enabling us to determine quasi‐stationary PSD profiles with no noticeable peaks. This study provides new insights into accurate PSD analysis, critical for understanding the mechanisms underlying radiation belt enhancements.

The Effects of Geomagnetic Activities on Acceleration Regions of Radiation Belt Electrons

AbstractSolar wind and magnetospheric processes play important roles in relativistic electron acceleration in the Earth's outer radiation belt. However, how geomagnetic activity affects the acceleration region of relativistic electrons is still not clear. Here we first report the local acceleration regions during the strong storm of 1 June 2013. The first local acceleration region occurs at the lower L shell (L* ∼ 4.0) during the early recovery phase, which is associated with non‐continuous substorm activities. The second local acceleration region occurs at the higher L shell (L* ∼ 5.0) during the late recovery phase, which is associated with continuous substorm activities. To provide a more comprehensive picture, we additionally analyze two storm events with different geomagnetic activities. These events suggest that (a) the strong storm makes it possible for the local acceleration regions to occur at different L shells; (b) the timing, intensity, and duration of substorms during the recovery phase are crucial to the location and dynamics of the local acceleration region. These results can help us further understand the dynamics of relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt.

Extreme Relativistic Electron Fluxes in GPS Orbit: Analysis of NS41 BDD‐IIR Data

AbstractRelativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt are a significant space weather hazard. Satellites in GPS‐type orbits pass through the heart of the outer radiation belt where they may be exposed to large fluxes of relativistic electrons. In this study we conduct an extreme value analysis of the daily average relativistic electron flux in Global Positioning System orbit as a function of energy and L using data from the US NS41 satellite from 10 December 2000 to 25 July 2020. The 1 in 10 year flux at L = 4.5, in the heart of the outer radiation belt, decreases with increasing energy ranging from 8.2 × 106 cm−2s−1sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 0.6 MeV to 33 cm−2s−1sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 8.0 MeV. The 1 in 100 year is a factor of 1.1–1.7 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year event. The 1 in 10 year flux at L = 6.5, on field lines which map to the vicinity of geostationary orbit, decrease with increasing energy ranging from 6.2 × 105 cm−2s−1sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 0.6 MeV to 0.48 cm−2s−1sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 8.0 MeV. Here, the 1 in 100 year event is a factor of 1.1–13 times larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year event, with the value of the factor increasing with increasing energy. Our analysis suggests that the fluxes of relativistic electrons with energies in the range 0.6 ≤ E ≤ 2.0 MeV in the region 4.25 ≤ L ≤ 4.75 have an upper bound. In contrast, further out and at higher energies the fluxes of relativistic electrons are largely unbounded.

On the Energy‐Dependent Deep (L < 3.5) Penetration of Radiation Belt Electrons

AbstractDeep penetration of outer radiation belt electrons to low L (<3.5) has long been recognized as an energy‐dependent phenomenon but with limited understanding. The Van Allen Probes measurements have clearly shown energy‐dependent electron penetration during geomagnetically active times, with lower energy electrons penetrating to lower L. This study aims to improve our ability to model this phenomenon by quantitatively considering radial transport due to large‐scale azimuthal electric fields (E‐fields) as an energy‐dependent convection term added to a radial diffusion Fokker‐Planck equation. We use a modified Volland‐Stern model to represent the enhanced convection field at lower L to match the observations of storm time values of E‐field. We model 10–400 MeV/G electron phase space density with an energy‐dependent radial diffusion coefficient and this convection term and show that the model reproduces the observed deep penetrations well, suggesting that time‐variant azimuthal E‐fields contribute preferentially to the deep penetration of lower‐energy electrons.

The Evolutions of the Seed and Relativistic Electrons in the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt During the Geomagnetic Storms: A Statistical Study

AbstractUsing the Van Allen Probes data, we statistically study the evolutions of the seed and relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt during the storms. Based on the different storm intensities and durations of the main phase, the storm events are divided into “moderate and short (MS) events,” “moderate and long (ML) events,” “strong and short (SS) events,” and “strong and long (SL) events.” The results from a superposed epoch analysis show that (a) For most MS and SS events, the seed electron fluxes can exceed pre‐storm levels, and enhanced fluxes mainly occur around the storm peak. (b) For the ML and SL events, the seed electron fluxes greatly exceed pre‐storm levels by more than an order of magnitude, and enhanced fluxes mainly occur during the main phase. (c) For most MS events, MeV electron fluxes are difficult to return to or exceed pre‐storm levels. While MeV electron fluxes at some L* shells for some SS events can exceed pre‐storm levels. (d) For most ML or SL events, MeV electron fluxes at L* ≥4.0 or ≥3.5 can exceed pre‐storm levels, and enhanced fluxes mainly start to occur from the main phase. These results suggest that the duration of the main phase and storm intensity play important roles in the evolutions of the seed and MeV electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt during the storms. These are important for our further understanding of the electron dynamics of the outer radiation belt.

Opening the Black Box of the Radiation Belt Machine Learning Model

AbstractMany Machine Learning (ML) systems, especially deep neural networks, are fundamentally regarded as black boxes since it is difficult to fully grasp how they function once they have been trained. Here, we tackle the issue of the interpretability of a high‐accuracy ML model created to model the flux of Earth's radiation belt electrons. The Outer RadIation belt Electron Neural net (ORIENT) model uses only solar wind conditions and geomagnetic indices as input features. Using the Deep SHAPley additive explanations (DeepSHAP) method, for the first time, we show that the “black box” ORIENT model can be successfully explained. Two significant electron flux enhancement events observed by Van Allen Probes during the storm interval of 17–18 March 2013 and non‐storm interval of 19–20 September 2013 are investigated using the DeepSHAP method. The results show that the feature importance calculated from the purely data‐driven ORIENT model identifies physically meaningful behavior consistent with current physical understanding. This work not only demonstrates that the physics of the radiation belt was captured in the training of our previous model, but that this method can also be applied generally to other similar models to better explain the results and to potentially discover new physical mechanisms.

Specifying High Altitude Electrons Using Low‐Altitude LEO Systems: Updates to the SHELLS Model

Specifying High Altitude Electrons Using Low‐Altitude LEO Systems: Updates to the SHELLS Model

The Phase Space Density Evolution of Radiation Belt Electrons under the Action of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure

Earth’s radiation belt and ring current are donut-shaped regions of energetic and relativistic particles, trapped by the geomagnetic field. The strengthened solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdyn) can alter the structure of the geomagnetic field, which can bring about the dynamic variation of radiation belt and ring current. In the study, we firstly utilize group test particle simulations to investigate the phase space density (PSD) under the varying geomagnetic field modeled by the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and T96 magnetic field models from 19 December 2015 to 20 December 2015. Combining the observation of the Van Allen Probe, we find that the PSD of outer radiation belt electrons evolves towards different states under different levels of Pdyn. In the first stage, the Pdyn (~7.94 nPa) results in the obvious rise of electron anisotropy. In the second stage, there is a significant reduction in PSD for energetic electrons at all energy levels and pitch angles under the action of intense Pdyn (~22 nPa), which suggests that the magnetopause shadowing and outward radial diffusion play important roles in the second process. The result of the study can help us further understand the dynamic evolution of the radiation belt and ring current during a period of geomagnetic disturbance.

Rapid Enhancements of Relativistic Electrons in the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt Caused by the Intense Substorms: A Statistical Study

AbstractUsing the data from Van Allen Probe A and B, we investigate rapid enhancements of relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt caused by the intense substorms (AEmax > ∼900 nT) for 29 events from January 2013 to April 2015. These intense substorms may occur during the storm main phase or recovery phase. Based on the different substorm evolution characteristics, the intense substorms are divided into non‐continuous intense substorm activities and continuous intense substorm activities. In this study, we set a criterion for rapid enhancements when the electron phase space densities for μ = 1,096, 2,290, and 3,311 MeV/G increased by more than two times in 9 hr. In the time interval of 9 hr, the local acceleration by chorus waves is the dominant process for accelerating the seed populations (hundred kiloelectron volts) up to MeV energies. Our statistical results show that enhanced chorus waves and seed electrons during the intense substorms are observed in the outer radiation belt. Continuous intense substorm activities can more rapidly (<9 hr) and efficiently accelerate relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt than non‐continuous intense substorm activities. During the intense substorms, the electric field acceleration could contribute to rapid enhancements of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Our statistical study suggests that the intense substorms during geomagnetic storms have a significant effect on the rapid variations of relativistic electron dynamics.

A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Relativistic Microburst Scale Size Induced by a Single Point‐Source Chorus Element

AbstractRelativistic microbursts are impulsive, sub‐second precipitation bursts of relativistic electrons. They are one of the main loss mechanisms of outer radiation belt electrons, and are driven by chorus waves. The scale size of relativistic microbursts is still not fully understood. In this work a global modeling of the microburst spatial distribution is conducted to study the scale size of relativistic microburst induced by chorus waves. A primary precipitation burst is induced near the source region by quasi‐parallel waves, and a secondary precipitation (SP) is induced on higher L‐shells by further‐propagating, oblique waves. The SP has a significant scale size even with a point‐source assumption because of wave spreading due to propagation effect. The secondary relativistic microburst scale size is ∼40(20) km on the counter (co)‐streaming side, consistent with previous observations. Our modeling results indicate chorus wave propagation effects are one of the primary factors controlling the relativistic microburst scale size.

Monitoring the Radiation State of the Near-Earth Space on the Arktika-M No. 1 Satellite

—The first results of monitoring the radiation state of the near-Earth space on the Arktika-M no. 1 spacecraft in a high-apogee Molniya orbit are considered. The characteristics of the devices of the heliogeophysical instrumentation complex GGAK-HE are presented. The results of the comparative analysis of experimental and model distributions of energetic particle fluxes of the Earth’s radiation belts in the orbit of the Arktika-M no. 1, as well as of some features of the dynamics of the outer electron radiation belt in 2021 and 2022 and the solar proton event of October 28, 2021, based on the experimental data from Arktika-M no. 1, Meteor-M no. 2, and Elektro-L no. 2 spacecraft are presented.