Electricity Consumption In Brazil Research Articles

A Hybrid Approach for Hierarchical Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Brazil

The Brazilian industrial sector is the largest electricity consumer in the power system. Energy planning in this sector is important mainly due to its economic, social, and environmental impact. In this context, electricity consumption analysis and projections are highly relevant for the decision-making of the industrial sectorand organizations operating in the energy system. The electricity consumption data from the Brazilian industrial sector can be organized into a hierarchical structure composed of each geographic region (South, Southeast, Midwest, Northeast, and North) and their respective states. This work proposes a hybrid approach that incorporates the projections obtained by the exponential smoothing and Box–Jenkins models to obtain the hierarchical forecasting of electricity consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector. The proposed approach was compared with the bottom-up, top-down, and optimal combination approaches, which are widely used for time series hierarchical forecasting. The performance of the models was evaluated using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) precision measures. The results indicate that the proposed hybrid approach can contribute to the projection and analysis of industrial sector electricity consumption in Brazil.

The role of foreign direct investment in solving electricity poverty in Brazil

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between Foreign Direct Investments and electricity poverty in Brazil in the period 1992–2021. With the opening up of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s policy makers expected that foreign investment would contribute to the development of the Brazilian economy. The impact of Foreign Direct Investment in the electricity sector is, nonetheless, a topic with scarce literature. Therefore, the current work to fill this gap is justified. We adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short and long-run relationship between these variables. Our main result is that Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact on electricity consumption in Brazil. Additionally, Foreign Direct Investment has a negative impact in terms of electricity access, at the time of the occurrence of the investment, which is compensated the year after. Private investments, have on the other hand, impacted electricity consumption positively. An implication is the need for compensatory public policies that can increase access to electricity for the poorest populations.

Hydrogen storage in depleted offshore gas fields in Brazil: Potential and implications for energy security

This article estimates the potential of using depleted offshore gas fields in Brazil for hydrogen storage and the effects this may have in terms of energy security. Brazil is starting to invest in producing green hydrogen associated with offshore wind energy generation. This initiative has stimulated the search for suitable locations to store hydrogen, including in depleted offshore gas reservoirs. The methodology used in this paper allows for identifying which of the 85 assessed depleted offshore gas fields are the most suitable for hydrogen storage and evaluating the storage capacity of the selected fields. In addition, a wind speed analysis is made to investigate possible locations for prospective wind energy generation projects that can accommodate green hydrogen production. As our main result, we find that the selected depleted offshore gas fields have the potential to store around 5483 TWh worth of hydrogen. This amount is equivalent to about 10 times the total annual electricity consumption in Brazil. Hence, Brazil can comfortably leverage its offshore wind potential in connection with hydrogen production to enhance the energy security of its electricity supply. Considering that to date primarily natural gas has been used as the main source of energy security in Brazil and that its share in the electricity sector has significantly increased over the last decade, the combination of hydrogen storage and renewable energy such as offshore wind power has the potential to provide a resilient and decarbonised electricity system in the country. Furthermore, hydrogen stored in offshore reservoirs in Brazil can become an important resource in the international energy market and constitute a possible key to energy security for countries to which Brazil may export hydrogen. We end our paper by providing comments on the challenges, opportunities, and prospects of offshore hydrogen storage in Brazil.

Extreme event counterfactual analysis of electricity consumption in Brazil: Historical impacts and future outlook under climate change

Climate change and other disruptive events have a significant impact on the electrical grid, affecting both power supply and consumption. With the rise in frequency and severity of extreme events, like heatwaves and droughts, the stability and operations of the system are increasingly at risk. The COVID-19 pandemic, unrelated to climate, has also brought about dramatic shifts in global energy patterns. We apply machine learning to model electricity consumption counterfactuals for Brazil, one of the largest hydropower producers, to understand the effects of these events. By training our model on 23 years of data (1999–2021), we achieved a .848 R2 and 2.6% MAPE. This enabled us to assess the impact of historical events on electricity consumption at both hourly and daily levels. Next, we use climate change scenarios to forecast electricity consumption and find that Brazil’s capacity is unlikely to meet demand from 2070 on-wards. Our research provides much needed insight into the impact of extreme events on Brazil, with implications for understanding energy system responsiveness and resiliency. The counterfactual approach proposed is also transferable to other countries and contexts, with the potential for new application areas given interactions between extreme events, climate change, and transitioning energy systems.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic viability of distributed photovoltaic systems in Brazil.

Electricity consumption in Brazil increases significantly, making feasibility studies to diversify the Brazilian electricity mix with other renewable sources become essential. However, the electricity market continues to be primarily driven by government or regulatory incentives and economic status. With the coronavirus pandemic since the beginning of 2020, the market has been undergoing significant changes that cause uncertainty in consumer investments in grid‐connected photovoltaic systems. This article presents an economic feasibility analysis of photovoltaic system installation for the Brazilian residential sector, estimating a cash and term investment and comparing the viability of the investment before the global pandemic (December 2019) with the pandemic scenario (April 2021) for each of the 27 Brazilian capitals. The baseline scenario for economic feasibility analysis calculations considered a power system of 4 kW. The results show that the effects of the pandemic in the electricity market were positive in the feasibility of investing in grid‐connected photovoltaic systems. Also, financing the system increases the chances of profitability. The current scenario is possibly the most attractive ever experienced by potential investors. However, this favorable scenario could decline in the coming years due to climatic and governmental factors.

What has driven the growth of Brazil´s residential electricity consumption during the last 19 years? An index decomposition analysis

Abstract Residential electricity consumption in Brazil has been growing during the last few decades, creating a potential opportunity to expand energy efficiency measures. However, the dimension of the sector and its closed relationship with the economic, cultural, and demographic processes causes a certain complexity in the understanding of patterns of consumption, creating additional challenges to energy policies. This study analyzed and decomposed the Brazilian residential electricity consumption between the years of 2000 and 2018, by driving factors through the LMDI-I method and IDA index, on regional level. All the data were obtained by official sources in the country. The main results obtained were: (i) the increase of household numbers was found to be one of the main drivers of consumption growth; (ii) household income showed no control over consumption in hot climate regions, except in low- income households; (iii) tariff showed to impose restrictions on consumption, also mainly in low-income households. Unprecedentedly, the results showed that the electricity consumption in Brazil varies with population age, with a trend of consumption growth up to the age 59, and a sharp reduction from the age of 60. The study presents opportunities to be contemplated in research and in energy policies.

Toward sustainable electricity consumption in Brazil: the role of economic growth, globalization and ecological footprint using a nonlinear ARDL approach

This study investigates nonlinear effects of economic growth, globalization and ecological footprint on sustainable electricity consumption in Brazil using monthly time-series data from 1971M:01 to 2014M:12 and a nonlinear ARDL model. The results show that the effects of economic growth, globalization and ecological footprint on electricity consumption are asymmetric. A positive shock to economic growth increases electricity consumption more than a negative shock of the same magnitude causes electricity consumption to decline. In the case of globalization, the effect of a negative shock is stronger. Furthermore, the long-term effects of positive and negative shocks to the ecological footprint are negative but statistically significant only in the case of a positive shock while in the short term, the increasing effect of a positive shock to the ecological footprint is stronger than the reducing effect of a negative shock of the same magnitude. These findings are validated when globalization is disaggregated to economic, political and social dimensions.

Forecasting residential electricity consumption: a bottom-up approach for Brazil by region

In this paper, we forecast residential electricity consumption in Brazil considering the variability in consumption behavior in different regions. In order to do so, we use a bottom-up approach to estimate long-term electricity consumption that considers three technology-driven scenarios: one assuming reference efficiency development, another one based on the Brazilian government’s predictions, and the third one assuming high efficiency. The results show an increase of residential electricity consumption due to the increasing appliance ownership rate, especially air conditioning, as well as the increasing number of households. In addition, it is shown that 96 TWh of electricity could be saved in the highest efficiency scenario due to significant efficiency gains between 2016 and 2050. Further, the results indicate the southeast of the country has the highest potential for consumption reduction: by 27% in the most efficient scenario. This work is the first to use a bottom-up approach to forecast the residential electricity consumption by region and by technology-driven scenarios in Brazil. With this methodology, it is possible to indicate which types of appliances should be targeted by policy makers when designing energy efficiency incentives. Hence, this model can be used as a roadmap to achieve the desired efficiency gains in Brazil.

THE IMPACT OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (SARS-COV-2), ON THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR / O IMPACTO DO NOVO CORONAVÍRUS (SARS-COV-2), NO SETOR ELÉTRICO

The world is undergoing traumatic changes in 2020 caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2. There have been profound changes in several sectors of the economy, including the electricity sector. This article aims to present an overview of the impact of the novel corona virus on the consumption of electricity in different regions of the world. Main socioeconomic factors that caused the impact on electricity consumption are analysed. In addition to consumption, the article also discusses the change in the energy matrix of some regions to generate electricity from fossil and renewable sources. Special emphasis is given to the study of electricity consumption in Brazil.

Assessing the impact of Brazilian economic growth on demand for electricity

This study analyzes the effect of increased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on demand for electricity in Brazil from 2004 through 2018 using a transfer function model. The data was derived from a time series of monthly Brazilian GDP and from a monthly series of total Brazilian energy consumption. As an increase in GDP is considered a proxy for economic growth, the study indicates that a 1% increase in Brazilian GDP results in a 0.475% increase in total electricity consumption in Brazil. In addition, electricity consumption forecasts were obtained for the 2018–2023 period using two procedures: the “standard” and “one-step-ahead” procedures. Two quantity indexes were also calculated for this period: one based on consumption forecasts obtained in this study and another based on estimates of installed capacity provided by the EPE. Growth was observed in both indexes, but the series for consumption had a very conservative growth in relation to that recorded for installed capacity. This analysis intends to provide an important contribution to existing literature by assessing the impacts of different GDP growth rates on demand for electricity.

Electricity consumption forecasting in Brazil: A spatial econometrics approach

This paper proposes an alternative method for applying the Moran's I test in exploratory analyses for spatial autocorrelation. An application of this new method found evidence that regional electricity consumption in Brazil is spatially dependent, presenting a spatial pattern of dissimilarity among regions. Such dependence suggests that the space dimension must be included in the specification of the forecast model to be used so as to ensure consistent, unbiased and efficient estimates. To achieve a higher energy security in the Brazilian Electricity Sector, it is essential to have accurate forecasts of the electricity consumption, and so a forecasting method that considers the spatiotemporal dynamics was proposed. The Spatial ARIMA model (ARIMASp) presented in this paper shows a better predictive performance - measured by a reduction of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error of forecasts - as compared to the ARIMA model. These results confirm that spatiotemporal models can improve forecasts of electricity demand in Brazil and demonstrate that considering spatial correlations is paramount to achieving the Brazilian Electricity Sector goals of security of electricity supply, affordability of tariffs and universalization of access to the Brazilian population.

Exploring the water-energy nexus in Brazil: The electricity use for water supply

The present work evaluates the electricity use for the water production and supply in Brazil. Five categories of indicators were proposed, that is, per capita, water losses, energy, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and financial/economic, which were used in the definition of municipal average values. It takes an average 0.862 ± 0.046 kWh m−3 for production and water supply in the country. The results demonstrate that the water supply systems accounted for, at least, 1.9% of total electricity consumption in Brazil in 2012, and the water loss wastes 27% of water and energy in the water supply systems from Brazil. The production and distribution of 1 m3 of water in Brazilian cities represents the emission of 0.050 ± 0.004 kgCO2e, being 0.014 ± 0.001 kgCO2e.m−3 associated with the water loss volumes. Furthermore, the average Brazilian cities' expenditure with electricity for the water supply is US$ 0.14 ± US$ 0.01, which corresponds to 16.8% ± 0.7% of operating expenditures and 12.9% ± 0.5% of total expenditure of the WSSs. The NE Region is the one that presents the greatest potential for the application of hydraulic and energy efficiency measures in water supply systems (WSSs).

Modelling and Forecasting the Residential Electricity Consumption in Brazil with Pegels Exponential Smoothing Techniques

The importance of the residential class in the consumption of electricity in the Brazilian Electric System (BES) can be recognized by its quantitative size, as it, in 2013, concentrates 27% of the total consumption and 85% among all consumers. Also, in this class are the main public policies such as subsidies for consumer units inhabited by low-income families, labelling and increased energy efficiency of appliances used in the home and others. This paper aims to model and forecast the Brazilian residential energy consumption, up to 2050, with Pegels exponential smoothing techniques. In addition to the forecasts with the best model in sample, an optimization procedure of the model's hyper parameters is carried out in order to adjust the projections provided by the Energy Research Company (ERC). The results obtained show that it is possible to predict satisfactorily the electricity consumption for the proposed horizon with minimum error in sample. And the exercise of optimization proved to be important for providing level and trend equations for the official expectations regarding the residential electricity consumption in Brazil.

PREVISÃO DO CONSUMO RESIDENCIAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA NO BRASIL: APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO ARX <br><strong>DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v2i2.50</strong>

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor a aplicação do modelo ARX para fazer previsões do consumo residencial de energia elétrica no Brasil, fundamentais para suportar decisões do setor de energia em bases técnica, econômica e ambientalmente sustentáveis. A função da demanda de energia elétrica foi modelada segundo um modelo multiplicativo com base na teoria econômica e incluiu quatro variáveis explicativas: tarifa residencial de energia elétrica, rendimento médio real das pessoas ocupadas, índice de inflação de utilidades domésticas e consumo de energia. Para estimar os coeficientes da equação do consumo de energia elétrica, foi utilizado o modelo ARX, o qual considera na projeção da variável dependente a influência de variáveis exógenas e modela os resíduos por meio de um processo auto-regressivo a fim de aumentar seu poder explicativo. Resultados indicaram um coeficiente de determinação de 95,4% e todos os coeficientes estimados foram estatisticamente significantes a um nível descritivo de 0,10. Foram realizadas projeções do consumo residencial de energia elétrica para os meses de janeiro e fevereiro de 2010 no intervalo de confiança a 95% o qual incluiu os valores verdadeiros de consumo observados. O modelo proposto mostrou ótima performance na previsão do consumo de energia residencial do país. Palavras-chave: Séries temporais. Energia elétrica. Modelo ARX

Decomposition analysis of the variations in residential electricity consumption in Brazil for the 1980–2007 period: Measuring the activity, intensity and structure effects

Introduced at the end of the 1970s to study the impacts of structural changes on electricity consumption by industry, index decomposition analysis techniques have been extended to various other areas to help in the formulation of energy policies, notably in developed countries. However, few authors have applied these techniques to study the evolution of energy consumption in developing countries. In Brazil, the few available studies have focused only on the industrial sector. In this article, we apply the decomposition technique called the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to electricity consumption of the Brazilian residential sector, to explain its evolution in terms of the activity, structure and intensity affects, over the period from 1980 to 2007. The technique is sufficiently robust and flexible to perform this analysis, by disaggregating residential consumers by consumption classes and regions of the country. Among the main results is measurement of the impact of government programs for income transfer and universal service on variations in residential consumption, typical of developing countries.

BETTER SELL BAGASSE THAN SURPLUS ELECTRICITY?

Over the past decade, electricity consumption in Brazil grew faster than generation capacity. This situation obliged an urgent return to investment in the sector, and revitalization of the restructuring in the national electricity sector. In these circumstances, the use of renewable energy sources, such the biomass, became an option for decentralized electricity generation. Sugar cane bagasse is one of the most important biomasss residues for electricity generation. The present publication analyses an investment made in the expansion of the energy cogeneration system in an industry that produces sugar and alcohol, from sugar cane, considering the seasonal bagasse price, energy generation costs and a 10 year period. With the new cogeneration system the factory became self-sufficient in energy, with a saleable surplus of 21,240 MWh, at an average power of 4,000 kW. However, an economic analysis indicated that the best option would have been to maintain the original system and sell surplus bagasse at R$ 26.00/t.

Short-term forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Brazil

This paper presents short-term forecasting methods applied to electricity consumption in Brazil. The focus is on comparing the results obtained after using two distinct approaches: dynamic non-linear models and econometric models. The first method, that we propose, is based on structural statistical models for multiple time series analysis and forecasting. It involves non-observable components of locally linear trends for each individual series and a shared multiplicative seasonal component described by dynamic harmonics. The second method, adopted by the electricity power utilities in Brazil, consists of extrapolation of the past data and is based on statistical relations of simple or multiple regression type. To illustrate the proposed methodology, a numerical application is considered with real data. The data represents the monthly industrial electricity consumption in Brazil from the three main power utilities: Eletropaulo, Cemig and Light, situated at the major energy-consuming states, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, respectively, in the Brazilian Southeast region. The chosen time period, January 1990 to September 1994, corresponds to an economically unstable period just before the beginning of the Brazilian Privatization Program. Implementation of the algorithms considered in this work was made via the statistical software S-PLUS. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Short‐term forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Brazil

Short‐term forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Brazil

Policies to improve biomass-electricity generation in Brazil

Electricity consumption in Brazil has grown twice from 1979 to 1994 and, for the future, official forecasts estimate high risks of deficit. Brazilian generation system presents highly seasonal characteristics due to its hydroelectric origin and sugar cane origin electricity could be used as complementation for the dry period, instead of conventional thermoelectric power plants, with the corresponding environmental advantages. Nowadays, most sugar/alcohol industries in the state of São Paulo are energy self-sufficient and some of them already “export” a small electricity surplus to the grid. The potential for such surplus is significant, moreover with the introduction of more efficient technologies, but prices are not yet attractive when compared to conventional market prices, besides the existing barriers related to the current legislation. On the other hand, existing studies show that more efficient technologies become competitive when externalities are included. This paper analyzes worthing methodologies, externalities-based decisions and policy mechanisms to guide governments, planners, decision-makers and managers in the correct evaluation of bioenergy use and production faced to other alternatives.

Simulation of a solar driven aqua-ammonia absorption refrigeration system Part 2: viability for milk cooling at remote Brazilian dairy farms

Refrigeration at dairy farms in Brazil would contribute substantially to improving the rate and quality of milk production. Farmers would be able to milk twice a day or more, and keep the milk refrigerated until it was transported to the delivery station. The 1980 rural electricity consumption in Brazil's major milk-producing state was only 0.93% of the national total 2. This low consumption can be attributed to the high costs associated with the electrification of the rural regions. In these areas, cooling cycles based on the absorption principle may be especially suitable. Solar energy, coupled with methane generated from cattle herd wastes, has been investigated as a source of auxiliary energy.