Electric Vehicle Sales Research Articles

North America’s Potential for an Environmentally Sustainable Nickel, Manganese, and Cobalt Battery Value Chain

The Detroit Big Three General Motors (GMs), Ford, and Stellantis predict that electric vehicle (EV) sales will comprise 40–50% of the annual vehicle sales by 2030. Among the key components of LIBs, the LiNixMnyCo1−x−yO2 cathode, which comprises nickel, manganese, and cobalt (NMC) in various stoichiometric ratios, is widely used in EV batteries. This review reveals NMC cathodes from laboratory research. Furthermore, this study examines the environmental effect of NMC cathode production for EV batteries (including coating technologies), encompassing aspects such as energy consumption, water usage, and air emissions. Although gaps persist in NMC cathode environmental assessments (NMC111, NMC532, NMC622, and NMC811), limited life cycle assessments “(LCA)” have been conducted. Most available data originate from Asia (primarily China), accounting for 85% of the production of EV LIB cathode materials. The concept of battery passports for data collection on LIB components has been proposed to facilitate material traceability as a system for ensuring a sustainable supply chain for critical minerals. The automotive industry’s shift to electrification necessitates a sustainable supply chain from mine to vehicle end-of-life. As the critical mineral supply moves from Asia to North America, environmentally friendly industrial methods must be studied to provide this supply chain direction.

The window of opportunity: a case study of the battery electric vehicle in Thailand

Purpose Thailand, although a late entrant, has emerged as a significant center for the production and export of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in Asia. With the arrival of a disruptive battery-electric vehicle (BEV), this study aims to investigate whether Thailand can exploit this window of opportunity to leapfrog. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses data sourced from Thailand’s Department of Intellectual Property to analyze electric vehicle (EV) patent applications. This paper collected qualitative data and conducted interviews with several EV manufacturers. Findings Although Japanese automakers dominate essential EV technology patents, they trail behind Chinese automakers, which benefited from the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in EV sales. The incumbents, Japanese and Western, choose to expand their production of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles. ICE technology does not constrain new entrants, such as Chinese automakers, Japanese newcomers and Thai newcomers. Compared to Japanese carmakers stuck with ICE and HEV technologies, they have been transitioning to BEVs at a faster pace. BEV has opened the door for large Thai indigenous energy corporations to enter the automotive industry by focusing on niche areas (nonfour-wheel vehicles) and supporting businesses like charging stations. In summary, Thailand has successfully attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) into the EV sector, but it has not yet succeeded in developing indigenous technologies related to EVs. The Thai automobile sector fails to leapfrog because it is too tied up with Japanese automotive production networks and has an unfavorable FTA with China. Originality/value This study sheds light on the limitations of an industrial development strategy relying on openness to trade and FDI without adequately strengthening indigenous technologies and firms, as the country adopting the strategy fails to leapfrog when the window of opportunities created by disruptive technologies arrives.

Electric Vehicle Adoption: Implications for Employment in South Africa’s Automotive Component Industry

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will require significant changes in the automotive industry, particularly concerning its labour force. This study evaluates the impact of EVs on employment within South Africa’s automotive component manufacturing sector. A system dynamics model was developed to assess the effect of EV market penetration on component manufacturing employment over time. Key drivers of employment in the conventional and the EV component industries were identified and incorporated into the model. The results indicate a negative impact of EV penetration on employment of 18.3% when considering 20.0% EV sales (EV20) in 2040. Scenario analyses highlighted the influence of individual components, battery localisation, and load shedding on labour. Tyre and wheel manufacturing was found to be the most labour impactful component in the conventional industry against electrical engines in the EV counterpart. Localising 25.0% of battery production could increase employment by 6.9% and 2.7% in the EV40 and EV20 Scenarios. Load shedding has a detrimental effect on the country’s economy, assumed to reduce employment by 30.0%. However, strategic industry and policy interventions can mitigate the adverse effects of this transition.

Empirical Research on the Impact of Technological Innovation on New Energy Vehicle Sales

In the context of global carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, researching the driving forces and influencing factors behind the growth in sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is particularly urgent and crucial. Although the academic community has extensively explored various factors affecting NEV sales, technological innovation, as the core engine driving industry progress, is yet to receive sufficient and in-depth exploration regarding its potential profound impact on sales. Therefore, this study thoroughly analyzes the mechanism by which technological innovation influences sales, supplementing the existing literature, exploring sustainable industry development, and guiding the optimization of business strategies and precise government policies. This research employs the quality of NEV technology patents as a proxy variable for technological innovation, and conducts an empirical analysis using China’s NEV sales data from 2015 to 2022. The results of the study show the following: (1) the quality of technological innovation significantly contributes to the growth of new energy vehicle sales. This conclusion still holds when the administrative protection of intellectual property rights and the government’s public innovation environment indicators are used as instrumental variables of technological innovation quality. (2) Technological innovations in different links of the new energy vehicle industry chain have a positive impact on sales, especially those in the midstream battery, motor, and downstream charging services. This shows that in the critical period of new energy vehicle development, not only is the breakthrough of key technologies crucial, but also, non-critical technologies can promote sales growth by improving user experience and product performance. (3) Compared with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the overall technological innovation of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has a more significant effect on the sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). (4) In addition, the study finds that there is no significant difference between high-quality and low-quality technological innovations on the promotion of new energy vehicle sales, which indicates that the market values the overall effect of technological innovations more than the mere level of quality. The study of the impact of technological innovation on sales in different branches of the new energy industry chain can help to clarify the direction of technological innovation, optimize resource allocation, promote the synergistic development of the industry chain, enhance market competitiveness, and provide a scientific basis for policy formulation.

Energy system models should consider evolving charging profiles

Abstract Globally, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are surpassing records every year, and their growing charging needs will ultimately reshape power infrastructure planning practices. While studies have analyzed the impact of light-duty BEVs on the electricity sector, they have overlooked the prospective evolution in charging profiles. We developed a framework for analyzing passenger vehicle electrification futures accounting for the evolution in charging infrastructure, BEVs technical features, and socio-demographics. We soft-link a BEV charging profiles generator with an energy system optimization model to analyze a light-duty vehicle (LDV) electrification scenario in the U.S. from 2020-2050. Compared to static charging profiles, common in prior work, evolving profiles lead to substantial differences in projected power plant installed capacity (up to ~300 GW more solar PV) and activity (up to ~460 TWh more solar PV generation). Hence, future studies should consider not only different charging profiles (e.g., day, night, uncontrolled) but also how these evolve over time.

Promoting Sustainability in the Automotive Industry: Economic Comparison of Dealer Sales Model and Agency Sales Model of Electric Vehicles in Slovakia

Electrification is becoming an increasingly important part of many industries. Electrification is a crucial area of interest in developing electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in the automotive industry. Research and innovation in the field of electric vehicles indicate positive trends. The rise in sales of electric vehicles represents a significant shift away from traditional fossil fuel-powered technologies to more sustainable and efficient alternatives. Electrification also brings with it new trends in sales models. The paper aims to identify recommendations for the practical adaptation of the importer of electric vehicles in the Slovak market based on the analysis of the financial and economic impacts of the sale of electric vehicles. This paper approaches two essential research topics. The first research topic focuses on the analysis of vehicle sales, specifically electric vehicles, and based on the analysis of existing sales, the paper will also outline the sales plan of the selected brand in the period 2023–2025. The second research topic focuses on changes in the business model for the sale of electric vehicles. One of the findings is that a specific indirect sales model for the automotive industry, i.e. selling vehicles through dealers, is used. In the long run, the new agency sales model standards should help correct many of the shortcomings of the current sales system. The effects on the profitability of sellers can be defined mainly by smaller financial costs caused by the cancellation of storage spaces, smaller credit indebtedness resulting from not creating warehouse stocks, and a greater focus on sales and additional services aimed at the end customer. Agency selling also allows the seller to get precious data about the customer and feedback directly to the manufacturer, which can serve as a valuable source of information for improving goods and services, which, in the long run, can lead to greater profitability for sellers. However, the Agency sales model is also coming to the fore. In this paper, the given types of business models are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are highlighted, and last but not least, the expected profits of the analysed company are calculated for both types of sales models. Keywords: agency sales model, business model, dealer sales model, economic comparison, electric vehicle

Unveiling the bidirectional link between electric vehicle sales and charging infrastructure: Evidence from 95 Cities in China

Unveiling the bidirectional link between electric vehicle sales and charging infrastructure: Evidence from 95 Cities in China

Can the Phenomenon of Automobile Electrification be transformed into the Development Direction of the Automobile Industry?

Internationale Automobil-Ausstellung Show in 2023 just came to an end. In April, 2024, German Federal Chancellor Scholz led a huge business delegation to visit China (China Digital Space, 2024) Germany, which has always been proud of the automobile industry and technology, has caused a heated discussion about the development direction of the automobile industry from professional automobile media to online self-media[2]. As an international student studying advanced business management expertise in Germany, the author is curious about this changes. In particular, the latest media reports show that Apple has given up pushing forward the car-building project for nearly 10 years. Subsequently, Källenius, Chairman and CEO of Mercedes-Benz Group, also said that Mercedes-Benz would no longer adhere to the original goal of fully turning to electric vehicle sales in major markets by 2030. Previously, Mercedes-Benz's pursuit of motorization was fanatical. In 2021, Mercedes-Benz proposed an all-electric strategy. The goal is that the sales of all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 50% by 2025. Starting from 2030, Mercedes-Benz will be basically transform into an all-electric vehicle. These developments once again aroused the author's interest in whether motorization will become the development direction of the automobile industry. Hegel, a German philosopher, once pointed out in Science of Logic that existence is a phenomenon but it is not an illusion. Illusion corresponds more to existence, and phenomenon is higher than existence with richer connotation, because phenomenon contains its own reflection and reflection of other things, and phenomenon itself also has its own internal stability contradiction. Germany is a country of rational speculation, and the appearance of any phenomenon will not affect the Germans' thinking and exploration of its essence. Similarly, from the perspective of subjective feeling and rational analysis, this paper will try to discuss the change of German automobile consumption trends from the perspective of commercial marketing, and then prove the inherent logic of some industry behind the trend. With interest in learning and thinking, the author tried to drive a fuel-powered car and an electric car by himself. One is a German Mercedes-Benz GLC 300 manufactured and sold in China. This car is very popular among middle class consumers in China. Another model that I test drive is the M9, which was launched in the fourth quarter of 2023. It was jointly developed by Huawei, a network intelligent terminals supplier in China, Energy storage battery maker called Ningde Times and Seres Veicles. According to the report of China's mainstream media, China National Radio Network, on March 19,2024, the media once again held the top five positions of luxury brands with a weekly sales volume of 86,000 vehicles, and tried out two models. Another market factor is that the sales price of these two models are in the range of 500 thousand to 600 thousand RMB.

Research on Potential Customer Mining Models for Electric Vehicles Based on Machine Learning Models and Service Growth Models

This study investigates the factors that impact the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) across different brands. Initially, multiple linear regression was performed on the data, and the variance inflation factors were all found to be less than 10. For the first category of indicators, one-way ANOVA was conducted to separate the three types of brands. For the second category of indicators, a logistic regression model was developed to complete the selection. Through multiple rounds of filtering, the following indicators were determined: For the first category, indicators affecting Brand 1 are A1, A2, A3, A4; indicators affecting Brand 2 are A1, A3; indicators affecting Brand 3 are A1, A2, A3, A5. For all brands, the second category of influencing indicators includes B4, B10, B11, B16, B17. A potential customer mining model was then established. Logistic regression models were created based on the sales influencing factors for different brands, and the model formulas for the three types of brands were calculated. The purchase intentions of 15 target customers were predicted, with an accuracy rate of up to 90%. Finally, the study explores whether increasing service efforts could change customer purchase intentions. A stepwise percentage service growth model was established, incorporating an initial service difficulty coefficient to determine how service satisfaction could be altered. Customers 2, 8, and 11 were selected for validation, and their respective service increment percentages were derived, leading to sales strategies tailored to these three customers.

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Sales with ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Method: The Case of India

Forecasting Electric Vehicle Sales with ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Method: The Case of India

Research on Sales of New Energy Vehicles Based on ARIMA Model

Firstly, this article identifies seven indicators based on electric vehicles: battery endurance, number of public charging facilities, government subsidies, gasoline prices, electricity prices, carbon emissions, and number of power battery companies. Spearman correlation analysis is conducted between indicator data and sales of new energy electric vehicles. The correlation coefficients of the first five indicators are all greater than 0.6, which is the main influencing factor. Then, the sales of new energy vehicles are predicted using a yearly forecasting method. Due to the close correlation between the sales of new energy vehicles and the five main indicators, the ARIMA time series model is first used to predict the annual quantity of the five indicators. Then, using these five indicators as inputs and sales as outputs, a BP neural network model is established to predict the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China to be 46051748 units in ten years. Finally, quantifying the score of ecological environment assessment using four evaluation indicators: sulfur dioxide, smoke emissions, ammonia nitrogen, and carbon dioxide. The entropy weight method was used to determine the weights of each indicator, and the results were 37.25%, 30.96%, 21.24%, and 10.55%, respectively. Then apply it to the TOPSIS model to obtain ecological environment scores for different years, and analyze the correlation between the degree of electrification and ecological environment scores. Finally, it can be concluded that the larger the market share of new energy vehicles, the better the ecological environment.

An experimental study on lithium-ion electric vehicles battery packs behavior under extreme conditions for prevention of thermal runaway

The need for efficient and dependable lithium-ion battery packs has significantly increased as a result of the progressively rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs). Thermal management is one of the key factors in battery performance and durability. To avoid thermal deterioration, improve safety, and maximize system effectiveness, the battery pack's temperature must be carefully managed. These battery systems' potential for thermal runaway has raised concerns about how safely they can be operated in harsh environments. Environmental considerations, governmental laws, and developments in battery technology are driving the switch from internal combustion engines to electric automobiles. Lithium-ion batteries are sensitive to temperature variations and operating them outside the optimal temperature range can lead to accelerated degradation, reduced capacity, and compromised safety. Key performance indicators used to assess battery thermal management system effectiveness include temperature uniformity, cooling effectiveness, energy usage, and effect on battery life. This paper describes an experimental investigation that looked at how lithium-ion EV battery packs behaved in harsh environments. It also suggests a unique strategy to prevent thermal runaway by using materials like Transformer Oil (TO) and Phase Change Materials (PCM). A specially built experimental setup was created to undertake this inquiry in order to imitate several extreme situations, including high ambient temperatures. A lithium-ion (NMC) battery pack (7S3P) was put through the experimental phase's predicted harsh circumstances to see how it would react thermally. In order to obtain insight into the underlying mechanisms causing thermal runaway, the data acquired were evaluated, and crucial thermal metrics like temperature distribution, heat dissipation, and thermal gradients were studied. The experiment's findings showed that under extreme circumstances, conventional cooling techniques were ineffective in preventing thermal runaway, which resulted in serious safety risks and a reduction in battery performance. The suggested strategy, which incorporates PCM and TO, was then put into practice to fix these flaws and improve battery safety. Due to their ability to self-regulate, they served as components that prevented thermal runaway by limiting the rise in temperature under high-stress situations.

From Trends to Drivers: Key Factors Propelling Electric Vehicle Sales

With the rapid advancement of human economic levels and modern civilization, the automobile manufacturing industry is increasingly confronted with challenges related to energy scarcity and environmental pollution. Low carbon emissions and energy savings have become the main focus of automotive development. Under the influence of government incentives, the sales of household electric vehicles (EVs) have increased significantly, although they still represent a small share of the overall car market. To examine the factors influencing consumer purchases of household EVs, this report integrates both qualitative and quantitative analyses, controlling for single variables. Using linear regression, an empirical analysis was conducted on 18 BYD models with varying ranges and prices. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between driving range, selling price, and EV sales. Looking ahead, the development of new energy vehicles should prioritize longer ranges, high-quality features, and cost-effective performance.

Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment

New tailpipe emissions standards aim to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States. Here, we analyze the associated critical mineral supply chain constraints and enumerate the climate consequences of these constraints. Our work yields five findings. First, the proposed standard necessitates replacing at least 10.21 million new internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs between 2027 and 2032. Second, based on economically viable and geologically available mineral reserves, manufacturing sufficient EVs is plausible and reduces up to 457.3 million tons of CO2e. Third, mineral production capacities in the United States and amongst allies support the deployment of 5.09 million vehicles between 2027 and 2032, well short of compliance target. Fourth, this shortfall produces at least 59.54 million tons of CO2e in lost lifecycle emissions benefits. Fifth, limited production of battery-grade graphite and cobalt may represent particularly profound constraints. Pathways that afford comparable emission reductions are subsequently explored.

Household characteristics and electric vehicle adoption: changes from 2017 to 2022

ABSTRACT State and federal agencies have set several ambitious goals regarding electric vehicle sales in the United States. For example, the Biden Administration has set a target that 50% of new vehicle sales be electric by 2030. California aims to have 100% of new vehicles be zero-emission by the 2035 model year. This paper uses data from the 2017 and 2022 National Household Travel Surveys to document the extent of progress achieved in pursuit of these goals. These nationally representative surveys indicate that electric vehicle ownership has increased for both homeowners and renters, across all income groups, in single- and multi-vehicle households, and for urban and rural households. The results also highlight a few areas that vehicle manufacturers and policymakers need to address to accelerate the transition to a vehicle fleet that is less dependent on fossil fuels.

Forecasting the market value of power battery industry chain: A novel RRMIDAS-SVR model

The emergence of electric vehicles has contributed to mitigating air pollution and greenhouse effects caused by traditional fuel vehicles. The power battery industry chain, which is a primary component of electric vehicles, requires more attention to monitor its development status. This study proposes a novel method for forecasting the development status of the power battery industry chain by monitoring the market value index of all listed companies in the power battery industry. It proposes a new forecasting model, RRMIDAS-SVR, which outlines reverse-restricted mixed data sampling (RRMIDAS) into support vector regression (SVR) to end the data-driven challenges of mixed-frequency data and nonlinear relationships. We estimate the RRMIDAS-SVR model using a quadratic programming problem and mixed-frequency West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures prices, electric vehicle sales, and the consumer price index as predictors of the market value of all listed companies in the power battery industry chain. The experimental findings reveal that the RRMIDAS-SVR model outperforms the other models, as evidenced by its lower mean absolute error and root-mean-square error. This study contributes to understanding the development status of the power battery industry value chain by proposing and developing a new approach, RRMIDAS-SVR, to monitor the industry's development status that considers a multi-source information set. Moreover, this study provides strategic insights for stakeholders in the power battery industry.

Optimizing public space design through odd-even policy: Reducing traffic congestion and pollution in DKI Jakarta

Background: The Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta issued Governor Regulation No. 155 of 2018 and its amendments regarding Traffic Restrictions with the Odd-Even System. This regulation aims to reduce congestion levels on 16 main roads. By decreasing congestion, the expected outcome is a reduction in air pollution levels in DKI Jakarta. However, there is concern that the implementation of Governor Regulation No. 155 of 2018 might lead to an increase in conventional car purchases, as affluent individuals may buy two cars with odd and even license plates. This choice is driven by the continued use of fossil fuel-based energy. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Governor Regulation No. 155 of 2018 in reducing traffic congestion and air pollution in DKI Jakarta. Additionally, the study seeks to understand the relationship between the implementation of the odd-even traffic restriction system and electric vehicle sales. Methods: The research was conducted by analyzing secondary data obtained from government agencies and other institutions. Furthermore, a questionnaire survey was administered to individuals active on the 16 main roads where the odd-even policy is enforced. The study also analyzed the purchase levels of electric cars, which is one method for Jakarta residents to avoid fines on odd-even roads. Result: Based on the research findings, Governor Regulation No. 155 of 2018 and its amendments have not yet effectively reduced traffic congestion and air pollution in DKI Jakarta. Conclusion: The increase in electric car purchases potentially introduces new issues, such as the unsustainable management of nickel mines required for electric vehicle battery production. Therefore, other sustainable strategies are needed to address traffic congestion and air pollution. Novelty/Originality of the study: This study shows that Governor Regulation No. 155 of 2018 has yet to reduce congestion and air pollution in DKI Jakarta effectively. In addition, the increase in the purchase of electric cars as a solution to avoid fines has raised new problems related to the environmental impact of electric vehicle battery production.

A (non) agenda setting study: News coverage of electric vehicles and their popularity in Aotearoa New Zealand

This article explores the news media framing of electric vehicles (EVs) in New Zealand and theorises the role it may have played in the uptake of EVs in the country. The results were unexpected; the positive valence of EVs, battery life, carbon emissions, the environment, range, public or personal costs, positive public opinion, positive evaluative language, and battery reusage were not emphasised at all in coverage. Despite the lacklustre media coverage of EVs in New Zealand, the sales of EVs went up. This disconnect between previous research detailing the importance of positive media framing and subsequent behaviour has implications for further research examining media effects.

A (non) agenda setting study: News coverage of electric vehicles and their popularity in Aotearoa New Zealand

This article explores the news media framing of electric vehicles (EVs) in New Zealand and theorises the role it may have played in the uptake of EVs in the country. The results were unexpected; the positive valence of EVs, battery life, carbon emissions, the environment, range, public or personal costs, positive public opinion, positive evaluative language, and battery reusage were not emphasised at all in coverage. Despite the lacklustre media coverage of EVs in New Zealand, the sales of EVs went up. This disconnect between previous research detailing the importance of positive media framing and subsequent behaviour has implications for further research examining media effects.

Strategic Forecasting for Electric Vehicle Sales: A Cutting Edge Holistic Model Leveraging Key Factors and Machine Learning Technique

Strategic Forecasting for Electric Vehicle Sales: A Cutting Edge Holistic Model Leveraging Key Factors and Machine Learning Technique