Electoral Term Research Articles

Detection and impact estimation of social bots in the Chilean Twitter network

The rise of bots that mimic human behavior represents one of the most pressing threats to healthy information environments on social media. Many bots are designed to increase the visibility of low-quality content, spread misinformation, and artificially boost the reach of brands and politicians. These bots can also disrupt civic action coordination, such as by flooding a hashtag with spam and undermining political mobilization. Social media platforms have recognized these malicious bots’ risks and implemented strict policies and protocols to block automated accounts. However, effective bot detection methods for Spanish are still in their early stages. Many studies and tools used for Spanish are based on English-language models and lack performance evaluations in Spanish. In response to this need, we have developed a method for detecting bots in Spanish called Botcheck. Botcheck was trained on a collection of Spanish-language accounts annotated in Twibot-20, a large-scale dataset featuring thousands of accounts annotated by humans in various languages. We evaluated Botcheck’s performance on a large set of labeled accounts and found that it outperforms other competitive methods, including deep learning-based methods. As a case study, we used Botcheck to analyze the 2021 Chilean Presidential elections and discovered evidence of bot account intervention during the electoral term. In addition, we conducted an external validation of the accounts detected by Botcheck in the case study and found our method to be highly effective. We have also observed differences in behavior among the bots that are following the social media accounts of official presidential candidates.

Political Stability and Performance of Financial Institutions in Pakistan

The purpose of the present study is to analyze the impact of political stability on the performance of financial Institutions in Pakistan. This is the first study in the context of Pakistan that analyzes the performance of financial institutions during the period of political stability. The study's sample period was from 2008 to 2017 because, for the first time in Pakistan, two pure political governments completed their electoral term since the country's independence in 1947. The data is collected from the balance sheet analysis provided by the State Bank of Pakistan on its official website. For the data analysis, the study used the CAMEL analysis technique. The CAMEL analysis technique was also used by the IMF in 2020 to analyze the performance of underdeveloped and developing countries of the world. The results show that the performance of locally owned financial institutions (MCB Bank, United Bank Limited, and Allied Bank) in Pakistan increased during this period. Still, foreign-owned bank's performance is not good even if they cannot fulfill the minimum requirement established by the State Bank of Pakistan. The results contribute to the efficiency theory of financial institutions. Further, the study suggests that the researchers can test the significance of the results by changing sectors to confirm, modify, accept, or reject the results.

The Danish legislators database

Elections determine the composition of legislatures, but the study of legislative representation has long been hampered by limited individual-level data on legislators. Recent innovations have vastly increased opportunities for studying legislators, but often have limited historical coverage. We introduce the Danish Legislators Database (DLD), a database of members of Denmark’s parliament, Folketinget, for every electoral term since its inception in 1849. Relative to most existing databases, the DLD is rare in covering the entire history of a parliamentary body going back more than 170 years. The DLD thus enables analyses of parliamentary representation with full temporal coverage. We describe the development and content of the DLD and present a set of analyses illustrating the potential uses of the database in the study of representation.

Alte Gesichter, neue Chancen? Wechsel im Ministerpräsidentenamt nach und zwischen Landtagswahlen (1950 bis 2022)

Can sitting Minister-Presidents rely on an incumbency advantage in German state parliament elections despite the indirect nature of their election? Changes in the office of the Minister-President after (and between) state parliament elections in Germany from 1950 to 2022 show: the importance of state parliaments and their parliamentary party groups should not be underestimated . More new Minister-Presidents were elected during an electoral term than after state parliament elections . Concerning elections to the offices during terms, four different resignation reasons could be identified: successions were successful, in particular, after resignations out of personal reasons . Moreover, it is possible to confirm an indirect incumbency bonus: parties of sitting Minister-Presidents who had served a whole term lost on average less shares of votes than parties of incumbents that had been in office for less than one term . In addition, there has been an increase of incumbent losses since 1990 . Parties of incumbent Minister-Presidents lost more share of votes between 1991 and 2022 than in the time until 1990; this trend is in particular observable again for incumbents that had been in office less than one term .

Changing Patterns in Electoral Behaviour: Electoral Volatility in Hungary and Slovakia

The aim of this paper is to update knowledge about voting patterns and electoral behaviour in Hungary and Slovakia based on data from the last elections in 2018 and 2020. Political studies of electoral behaviour across Central and Eastern Europe with new democracies established shortly after fall of authoritarian regimes have found several findings, unique for this area. One of them is a specific type of electoral volatility, typical for political systems which follow longer periods of authoritarian regime. This electoral volatility correlates with high party system instability with new parties emerging every electoral term and old political parties vanishing from political competition. While political scientists studied relationship between electoral volatility and increasing number of political parties, party switching presents considerable threat to stability of party system in CEE. Therefore, this paper studies socioeconomic, demographic, and value factors that determine a specific type of electoral behaviour. This study shows that certain voters’ characteristics increase the likelihood of voters’ behaviour and confirms their relevance in eradicating electoral volatility. The results of this article prove that while voters’ volatility is “natural” for Hungary and Slovakia, age, and education correlate with specific types of behaviour. Additionally, the main reason for abstaining from voting is minimal trust towards democratic principles.

The democratic paradox: are national elections always good for satisfaction with democracy in Europe?

Abstract This article challenges the widespread notion that national elections are unequivocally good for people’s satisfaction with democracy. Instead, it argues that elections have enduring and disparate effects on democratic satisfaction, depending on the economic situation in which they take place; that is the election economy. When held during economic upturns, national elections increase subsequent satisfaction with democracy during most of the following electoral term—regardless of election results and economic growth after the election. When held during economic downturns, elections reduce democratic satisfaction until the next election—again, regardless of such post-election developments. An analysis of 29 European democracies in the period 1973–2019 supports these propositions and suggests that the disparate effects of national elections endure during most of the electoral term. These findings are robust to an array of model specifications, including when accounting for several pre-election and post-election developments.

The effects of revealing the prosecution of political corruption on local finances

This paper analyzes the financial implications on local public budgets of disseminating information about the prosecution of political corruption at the local level. We build a database from a wave of corruption scandals in Spain to use a quasi-experimental design and find that after corruption is revealed, both local public revenues and expenditures decrease significantly (approximately by 7 and 5%, respectively) in corruption-ridden municipalities. The effect lasts for a period of time equivalent to a full electoral term and comes mostly from other economic agents’ unwillingness to fund or start new projects in municipalities where the prosecution of corruption has been revealed. These results imply that if one of the consequences of corruption is the inefficient allocation of funds to areas where corrupt politicians can extract more rents, the revelation of the corruption scandal frees up resources that can be used to fund activities with a higher social return.

Die Berufsstruktur des Deutschen Bundestages in der 20 . Wahlperiode

After the 2021 Bundestag election, the composition of parliament changed considerably . With 736 mandate holders, the Bundestag has more members than ever before, and more than 38 percent of them are newcomers . The article uses Adalbert Hess’ categorization scheme to examine how the personnel changes affect German MPs’ occupational structure . Compared to the previous electoral term, it is noticeable that, significantly more MPs are from occupational areas close to politics, especially staff members of parliamentary groups and parties . MPs who previously worked in those jobs are often younger and their share is higher among East German MPs . Although convergence tendencies between East and West German MPs are still rare, they do exist: While East German MPs are still less likely to be freelancers and more likely to be self-employed than their West German colleagues, the dif- ferences between the groups have narrowed noticeably compared to the previous electoral term .

Examining the relationship between political spending and legislative activities

AbstractLawmakers’ political spending plays an essential role in the representation of the public through legislative activities. Based on a rich dataset from South Korea, this study examines the relationship between political spending and legislative activities in the National Assembly. We focus on lawmakers’ average legislative performance during the term rather than specific roll call votes by adopting novel measurements of legislative productivity and efficiency. We find that the total number of bill proposals increases when political spending increases, suggesting an improvement in lawmakers’ legislative productivity. The timeliness of legislation is enhanced by reducing the processing period. However, little evidence exists that the passing and processing rates of legislation requiring bipartisan collaboration and political compromise are improved. The effects are heterogeneous by legislation and expenditure types, affiliated party, and electoral term. The results indicate that political spending has positive effects on lawmakers’ individual productivity but restrictive effects on legislative efficiency.

Policy Characteristics, Electoral Cycles, and the Partisan Politics of Climate Change

Abstract Domestic policies are the cornerstone of the new global climate governance architecture. However, what motivates vote-seeking politicians to pursue climate policies remains remarkably unclear, as the climate politics literature suggests that climate policies are usually not perceived as a vote winner. The present article revisits this issue and argues that a better understanding of the relationship between electoral competition and climate policy making requires taking into account differences both in party ideologies and in policy characteristics. Studying twenty-nine democracies between 1990 and 2016, the analysis finds that climate policy production overall tends to increase as the election approaches due to increases in “soft” policies, such as subsidies, research grants, and information instruments, and relatively stable production rates of “hard” policies like taxes and regulations over the electoral term. Regarding partisan politics, left governments are found to produce more hard, but not more soft, climate policies than center and right governments, especially before elections. This suggests that partisan and electoral incentives are important reference points in the fight against climate change.

Zwischen Tradition und Moderne: Die Ausschusseinsetzung des Deutschen Bundestages in der 19. Wahlperiode

The first time arrival of the AfD in the Bundestag focused public attention on the distribution of committee chairmanships . The process of determining who chairs which committees is still based on an old German parliamentary custom whereby the committee chairs are allocated in accordance to a calculation method adopted in advance by the House and based on the relative strengths of the parliamentary groups . Following that procedure the AfD group is entitled to chairing three committees . The Reichstag procedures for appointing committee chairpersons were intentionally incorporated into the Rules of Procedure of the Bundestag and specify that committees are to ‘appoint’ their chairs in accordance to the agreements reached by the Council of Elders . An election is not prescribed . This has been standard practice throughout the course of many electoral terms . In the 19th electoral term objections against the candidates nominated by the AfD group were raised and the committees called for a vote to be taken . The AfD group argued that the Bundestag Rules of Procedure make no provisions for a vote on committee chairmanships and that the agreement reached by the parliamentary groups on their distribution was binding for the committees . Quite rightly, votes were ultimately taken because a presumptive binding effect of the parliamentary group decisions is superimposed by the freedom of the MPs in the exercise of their mandate . A Member cannot be compelled to vote for anyone for whom he or she does not wish to vote . Due to the new larger size of the Bundestag, the committees have grown in size . This led to an increase in the restrictions on speaking time . Such curbs are also permissible at the committee stage as long as they do not impair the fairness of parliamentary proceedings .

How Strong Is the President in Government Formation? A New Classification and the Czech Case

The article deals with the influence of presidents in the government formation process (GFP). The authors propose an original classification of roles of presidents, reflecting real constitutional practice, with five categories based on real presidential influence on the GFP, from the weakest to the strongest: observer, notary, regulator, co-designer, and creator. This classification is applied to Czechia, where the formal constitution gives the president great opportunities to intervene in the GFP. The results of the analysis of all cases of GFP show a significant variety of roles the Czech presidents have played: from notary to creator. Two factors are particularly important. Firstly, the timing of elections proved significant. When the GFP directly followed parliamentary elections, the presidents were weaker. In contrast, if the GFP followed a government break-up during the electoral term of the Chamber of Deputies, presidents were significantly stronger. Secondly, it depends on the real power of parties, that is, their ability to act together as a cohesive parliamentary majority. In most cases, the presidents showed their resolve to play a greater role than a notary, but they often faced a firm parliamentary majority that actually did not allow them to exert greater influence on the GFP. In contrast, the political proximity between the president and parliamentary parties appears difficult to assess, because there has been the public desire of non-partisan or “above-partisan” presidents in Czechia.

Information Dissemination, Competitive Pressure, and Politician Performance between Elections: A Field Experiment in Uganda

Politicians shirk when their performance is obscure to constituents. We theorize that when politician performance information is disseminated early in the electoral term, politicians will subsequently improve their performance in anticipation of changes in citizens’ evaluative criteria and possible challenger entry in the next election. However, politicians may only respond in constituencies where opposition has previously mounted. We test these predictions in partnership with a Ugandan civil society organization in a multiyear field experiment conducted in 20 district governments between the 2011 and 2016 elections. While the organization published yearly job duty performance scorecards for all incumbents, it disseminated the scorecards to constituents for randomly selected politicians. These dissemination efforts induced politicians to improve performance across a range of measures, butonly in competitive constituencies. Service delivery was unaffected. We conclude that, conditional on electoral pressure, transparency can improve politicians’ performance between elections but not outcomes outside of their control.

Not Welcome Anymore: The Effect of Electoral Incentives on the Reception of Refugees

Do electoral incentives affect immigration policies? I study this question in the setting of Italian municipalities making decisions about the reception of refugees. The localized control of the reception policy, combined with the exogenous timing of policy decisions and staggered elections, enables me to study the effect of electoral incentives on the reception of refugees. Although municipalities receive fiscal grants for hosting refugees, I find that the probability of opening a reception centre is 24 per cent lower for municipalities in the final year of the electoral term (i.e. just before new elections), compared to municipalities in other years of the term. The results suggest that electoral incentives may induce politicians to make decisions that are potentially detrimental from an economic perspective.

Mgr. Pavel Maškarinec, Ph.D., Determinants of Women’s Descriptive Representation on the City Boards of the Czech Statutory Cities after the Local Elections of 2014

Abstract This paper focuses on question why is descriptive (or numerical) representation of women as local political leaders higher in some cities than in others? The paper focuses on the analysis of the determinants of women’s political representation on city boards of the Czech statutory cities after the last local elections of 2014. We test some hypothesis, concerning two groups of factors that can potentially affect the success of women (socioeconomic and demographic, and political contextual), thus aiming to expand theoretical and empirical research which is in the case of determinants of women’s representation at the local level underdeveloped. Overall, the analysis reveals that regression models explaining presence of women on the city boards were not generally too successful, with slightly better performance of the model using socioeconomic and demographic factors. Specifically, Moravia and municipality size proved as very strong predictors of presence of women on the city boards in negative, or positive direction, respectively (although in full model municipality size variable lost its significance), supplementing by the proportion of female councillors in same elections, which increased successfulness of women as well. In contrast, the share of women in local councils and on city boards in the previous electoral term was not proven as statistical significant, similarly as party affiliations’ of city boards.

Conversations and Campaign Dynamics in a Hybrid Media Environment: Use of Twitter by Members of the German Bundestag

This article examines how Members of the German Bundestag (MdBs) used Twitter in the context of the country’s 2013 federal elections. In particular, we explore the dynamics in the MdBs’ use of Twitter during different periods of the electoral term: How do the tweeting habits of MdBs differ by party before and during the election campaign in (a) public versus personal communication and (b) campaign versus policy messages? How are the selection of interaction partners, centralization on leading actors, and reciprocity of the MdBs’ Twitter networks affected by election campaigning? We address these questions by conducting a content analysis combined with a network analysis of interaction patterns. The comparative application of both methods explains the differences of MdBs’ networks. The comparison clearly exhibits election campaign-driven changes related to the amount of activity and the character of tweeted messages. During the campaign period, MdBs’ tweets clearly discussed specific policies less than before. Tweeting about one’s personal life occurred also less frequently in the final campaign stage. Instead, the MdBs mainly complement other forms of election campaigning through a vivid metacommunication on campaign developments. Network relations reflect these variations and were less often reciprocated in proximity to the election and showed a higher degree of group homophily. We also found a substantial representation of print and broadcast media actors in the examined @reply networks. It is likely that these interactions and conversations with journalists are part of an MdB’s individual performance of “news management.”

Institutional Determinants of Legislative Turnover in the German State Parliaments: 1947–2012

More than 60 years of turnover data were collected to draw a unique picture of membership circulation in the German state parliaments between 1947 and 2012. The empirical study draws on new institutionalist theories in search of variables that might complement electoral volatility in explaining turnover patterns in sub-central Germany. Five institutional variables are tested using hierarchical models. From the substantial set of 196 elections, several robust conclusions can be drawn. The level of legislative turnover is affected by the length of the electoral term, professionalisation and institutionalisation of a legislature, and by changes in parliamentary size. By contrast, the small range of electoral system variation does not add anything to the explanation of variation in aggregate turnover rates at the German sub-central level.

Political legislation cycle in the Czech Republic

Politicians’ efforts to stay in office may lead to the occurrence of political cycles in legislation activity. The aim of this article is to analyze the political legislation cycles in a post-socialist economy of a young democracy, namely in the Czech Republic. Our estimation of the relationship between the number of approved laws and various explanatory variables suggests that the timing of elections has an impact on legislation activity. As an electoral term matures and upcoming elections approach, an increase is observed in legislation activity through which an incumbent government seeks to maximize its chances of re-election.

Zachycení volebního cyklu v zadávání veřejných zakázek v hlavním městě Praze

The aim of this paper is to reveal whether there is a relation between public procurement and the election cycle in Prague. The examined data cover the period from 2005 to 2011. Two hypotheses have been set in order to discover whether there is such a relation. The first one postulates that public procurement is used for construction, wellvisible investment, so as to increase the probability of being re-elected. The second hypothesis marks the effort of politicians to maximise their own benefits until the end of their electoral term as the main reason for contracting public procurement. The hypotheses are proven with the number of public procurement projects, the total amount of money spent on public procurement in a particular term, the average amount of bids and the relation between the final and expected price. Regression analysis was used as the tool for verification. The result is that it is possible to find such a relation dependence of supplies and services and the election cycle in Prague.

Paradiplomacy and the City of Prague

This study deals with the phenomenon of paradiplomacy, or parallel diplomacy. Paradiplomacy refers to international activities of cities and regions and includes marketing and public diplomacy, cross-border cooperation, functional trans-border cooperation, cultural and educational cooperation, and other activities. Paradiplomacy developed in the last third of the 20th century as a result of economic globalization, state decentralization, nationalism and the strengthening of regional identity, European integration, and the internationalization of cultural, educational, environmental, transport and other topics labelled as “low politics”. Thus, we can identify both economic and political foundations of paradiplomacy. The first part of the study presents a review of literature on paradiplomacy; the second part is a case study of foreign policy instituted by the City of Prague in the electoral term 2006–2010. This case study confirmed initial hypotheses: first, that paradiplomacy is influenced by three supra-national factors: economic globalization (a), regional and global political and economic regimes (b), and transnational networks, mainly based in the EU (c); second, that paradiplomacy is influenced by institutional and constitutional relations between the centre and regions; third, that paradiplomacy is influenced by the antagonistic nature of these relations.