Electoral Sociology Research Articles

Understanding vote transfers in two-round elections without resorting to declared data. The contribution of ecological inference, consolidated with factual information from a case study of the 2014 municipal elections in Montpellier

In electoral sociology, the analysis of vote transfers has traditionally depended on individual data obtained from surveys. Because such data suffer from a significant amount of declaration and memory bias, replacing them with the electoral statistics available down to polling station level may be advantageous. Recent developments in models of ecological inference allow us to use these aggregated data to establish estimates of vote transfers while minimising the risk of ecological error. Nonetheless, the reliability of ecological inference models for estimating vote transfers has thus far received little attention in the form of empirical evaluations. The purpose of the present article is to cast light on this blind spot by analysing a model for predicting electoral volatility in a two-round election, namely the municipal election held in Montpellier in 2014. What makes this approach original is its use of observed information – the proportion of non-voters in both rounds – first to compare this data with the estimates produced by the model and then to integrate it as a modelling parameter to measure its impact on estimated vote allocation. This analysis reveals that the initial model's results are relatively reliable regarding the known parameter, although they slightly overestimate its amplitude and underestimate its variability. The model that integrates information regarding the proportion of consistent non-voters yields estimates close to those obtained using the “raw” model. In terms of interpretative capacity, the value added by integrating this additional information is, therefore, slight. However, integrating the information does make it possible to establish narrower density intervals, reducing the uncertainty associated with the interpretation of the other parameters, particularly proportions associated with candidates who received few votes in the first round.

The turnout of Russian voters in the elections in 1997-1998: (based on empirical research)

The article is devoted to one of the key problems of electoral sociology: the level and nature of voter participation in elections of various levels in Russia in 1997-1998. A large number of participants testifies to the involvement of citizens in the activities of the socio-political system, their belief in the possibility of influencing the voting results on real politics.The paper examines the results of sociological studies published in this period, which address the issues of voter turnout. Estimates of the level of citizens' participation in the electoral process, formulated by sociologists and specialists of related scientific disciplines, are also given.The article draws the following conclusions. Sociologists record the development ofatrendcharacteristicofthefirsthalfofthe 1990s.Voterturnoutfortheelections is constantly decreasing. This is most clearly manifested at the grassroots level (elections of heads of cities and municipal deputies), during local referendums. This forces legislators to abandon the "threshold", the elections were considered to have taken place with any number of citizens who showed up at the ballot boxes.On the other hand, there is a revival of electoral activity in some regions and cities, which affects the stabilization and even the growth of turnout. This phenomenon is assessed by sociologists as an increase in civic activity associated with the development of electoral culture, both political forces and ordinary citizens.

Prehistory of electoral sociology in pre-revolutionary Russia: an experience of interdisciplinary analysis

The article discusses the process of the emergence of socio-electoral research in pre-revolutionary Russia at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the authors make an attempt to link the emergence of scientific interest in understanding the phenomenon of electoral behaviour with the study of the institution of elections in related scientific disciplines – jurisprudence and political science. It is concluded that the practice of this kind of research led representatives of these sciences to formulate the problem of electoral choice, that was rather difficult to solve within the framework of traditional methodological directions. The appeal to sociological approaches of the theoretical and empirical levels made it possible to advance in the study of electoral issues and led researchers to the idea of separating its part into the area of special scientific research. The main stages of the formation of socio-electoral research are analysed: from the first attempts to study electoral behaviour in order to solve legal and political problems in the aspect of understanding the institution of elections to the emergence of the idea of creating a special sociological discipline, within which the phenomenon of electoral choice should be considered. The heuristic guesses of scientists of pre-revolutionary Russia are highlighted, that anticipated a number of research areas in the electoral sociology of the twentieth century. The methods of empirical electoral research, that were first tested in the practice of scientific and sociological work, are analysed. It is noted that neither the level of development of the institution of elections, nor the level of scientific methodology and methods of sociological research in pre-revolutionary Russia contributed to the formation of a special scientific discipline - electoral sociology, and subsequent political events in the country blocked this process for a long historical time.

“Voting with feet”: Russian electoral sociology on the problem of voter turnout (1989–1996)

The article is devoted to the problem of turnout in elections in the USSR and Russia in the period from 1989 to 1996 in the assessment of Russian sociologists and social scientists. The theory of representative democracy in its neoliberal version narrows the acts of legitimation to the voting procedure. The experience of implementing these principles in the USSR and the Russian Federation at the end of the 20th century is quite relevant for the development of contemporary political sociology. The goal is a retrospective (historical) study of the explanatory schemes offered by Russian electoral sociologists and representatives of related disciplines on the decline in voter turnout in the 1989–1996 elections. Objectives: 1) description of specific situations, 2) analysis of the positions and arguments put forward, 3) generalization of the hypotheses and concepts proposed. Traditional methods for works of this nature were used (analysis, synthesis, heuristic, descriptive). The decline in the number of voters was constant. As in the rest of the world, it primarily affected those structures that were not perceived as significant. This led to a gradual lowering of the electoral barrier, even to its abolition. The statement about “voting with one’s feet” as a result of disappointment in the socio-economic transformations of the 1990s became a common place in the sociologists’ reasoning. The active part of the electorate, affiliated with certain political forces and organizations, reacted sensitively to mass media reports of falsifications. The general decline in voter turnout was perfectly exploited by political technologists for the benefit of their clients. The first steps of the Russian electoral sociology were not able to improve the situation in the socio-political orientation of the electorate.

Between neo-liberalism and the nation: France’s political landscape in 2022

ABSTRACT France’s 2022 electoral cycle suggests that the basic contours of French politics are in flux. This is largely because the traditional left-right spectrum proved increasingly incapable of structuring France’s political supply through the 1990s and 2000s. The result has been a reconfiguration of the political spectrum along a new quadripolar axis, in which political actors and voters position themselves along two spectrums: neoliberal-anti-neoliberal and globalist-nationalist. This quadripolar system has changed the way French parties operate and the way political actors present themselves. It has also given rise to—and reinforced—emerging patterns of electoral sociology and geography, which became particularly evident after the 2022 legislative elections.

Sociological Determinants of Voting in the Local Public Space in Cameroon

Electoral sociology, the subject of this study, appears to be a privileged framework for the exercise and understanding of theories of voting, and knowledge of the sociological determinant of voting, a line of thought created to understand electoral behaviour in Cameroon. In order to understand the related logics, a qualitative study was conducted based on a review of the political science literature on explanatory models of voting. Results of this study showed that electoral behaviour at the local level is no longer fixed and is not necessarily a function of political parties. Voters are more informed, more realistic and less predictable. This situation is sustained by the political context, as voters seem to be more aware of issues at stake because they are more directly concerned than in the past and feel solely responsible for their future and their fate with the disengagement of the State in most sectors of the Cameroon economy through decentralisation.

Sociological Determinants of Voting in the Local Public Space in Cameroon

Electoral sociology, the subject of this study, appears to be a privileged framework for the exercise and understanding of theories of voting, and knowledge of the sociological determinant of voting, a line of thought created to understand electoral behaviour in Cameroon. In order to understand the related logics, a qualitative study was conducted based on a review of the political science literature on explanatory models of voting. Results of this study showed that electoral behaviour at the local level is no longer fixed and is not necessarily a function of political parties. Voters are more informed, more realistic and less predictable. This situation is sustained by the political context, as voters seem to be more aware of issues at stake because they are more directly concerned than in the past and feel solely responsible for their future and their fate with the disengagement of the State in most sectors of the Cameroon economy through decentralisation.

Campaigning in Quebec Municipal Elections: When the Party Defines Door to Door Canvassing as “The Right Way” to Campaign

Electoral campaigns are one of the key moments in political life. Yet, there is little Canadian work on this subject when it comes to municipal elections. However, the international literature on campaigning provides an opportunity for useful questions on the transformations of this aspect of local political life by bringing together political sociology and electoral sociology. That being said in this context, we present the results of an exploratory case study of campaigning in a municipal political party in a Canadian city, more specifically situated in the Province of Quebec. Municipal political parties are usually considered as electoral machines. It is therefore important to study in detail the way these organizations conduct election campaigns. More specifically, we are looking to explore how municipal political parties influence the campaign by providing electoral techniques. To achieve this, we closely examine the door to door canvassing strategy, which hints at what the party considers a “good campaigning” standard and helps us observe the behaviours of candidates and the different ways they fulfill the party’s requirements. It is therefore not a question of measuring the effectiveness of partisan electoral devices but of understanding how the party produces campaigning norms and puts them to work. The results presented here offer an original insight into the internal workings of a municipal political party—something that has never before been documented in the Canadian context. First, they help to open the black box that is municipal political parties and to better understand their internal modus operandi. Second, the results illustrate that election campaigning is still fundamentally based on one-on-one encounters.

Surgimiento, autopercepción y participación del líder de opinión en el espacio digital

Los estudios clásicos sobre sociología electoral han presentado evidencia sobre la influencia del líder de opinión en las preferencias electorales. Sin embargo, aún son escasas y muy generales las investigaciones que han observado este fenómeno en el espacio digital. Por tal motivo, el objetivo de este artículo es mostrar cómo se propicia la construcción del líder de opinión en el espacio digital, cómo se configura la autopercepción de éste, y cuáles son los mecanismos que utiliza para persuadir. El método de investigación es el estudio de caso y la técnica principal es la entrevista semiestructurada. La unidad de análisis son personas mayores de 18 años, que hayan votado y promovido el voto a favor de Jaime Rodríguez “El Bronco”, Enrique Alfaro o Pedro Kumamoto en la elección de 2015 en México. Se concluye que el espacio digital provee recursos para que la persona líder de opinión se construya y se perciba a sí misma con capacidad de influencia entre sus redes de contactos, mediante la legitimidad que éstas le otorgan para que sea capaz de articular un repertorio de acción con el fin de persuadir.

RESEARCH OF ELECTORAL PROCESSES IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF FORMATION OF ELECTORAL SOCIOLOGY

This article discusses a brief history of the first attempts to study electoral processes by the polling method in the initial stages of the development of electoral sociology as an independent science at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries in the USA. KEYWORDS: electoral sociology, electoral process, straw polls, selective method

Public space of the trustworthiness of sociological knowledge: The case of electoral research

The paper analyses specific features of sociological data circulation in a public space during an election campaign. The basic components of this kind of space with regard to sociological research are political actors (who put themselves up for the election), voters and agents. The latter refer to professional groups whose corporate interests are directly related to the impact on the election process. Sociologists can also be seen as agents of the electoral process when experts in the field of electoral sociology are becoming intermingled with manipulators without a proper professional background and publications in this field. In a public space where an electoral race is unfolding, empirical sociological research becomes the main form of obtaining sociological knowledge, and it is primarily conducted to measure approval ratings. Electoral research serves as an example of combining the theoretical and empirical components of sociological knowledge, as well as its professional and public dimensions. Provided that sociologists meet all the professional requirements, electoral research can be used as a good tool for evaluating the trustworthiness of results reflecting the people’s expression of will. Being producers of sociological knowledge, sociologists act in two different capacities during an election campaign: as analysts and as pollsters. Therefore, it is essential that the duties and areas of responsibility for professional sociologists should be separated from those of pollsters. Another thing that needs to be noted is the negative influence that political strategists exert on the trustworthiness of survey findings which are going to be released to the public. Using the case of approval ratings as an illustration, the author analyses the most common techniques aimed at misrepresenting and distorting sociological data in the public space. Particular attention is given to the markers that can detect bogus polling companies, systemic violations during the research process and data falsification.

Le vote professionnel, entre rapport au syndicalisme et rapport au métier et à l’institution : le cas des enseignant·e·s du secteur public en France

En France, l’abstention aux élections professionnelles est élevée et en hausse, y compris pour une profession fortement engagée, mobilisée et syndiquée comme les enseignants. En éclairant ce paradoxe à partir de nouvelles données d’enquête et en s’appuyant sur les outils de la sociologie électorale, cet article montre que le vote professionnel des enseignants constitue une pratique participative conditionnée d’une part par leur rapport au syndicalisme et d’autre part par leur rapport au métier et à l’institution scolaire. Si le vote professionnel s’articule fortement avec certaines pratiques syndicales, notre analyse montre que la pratique du vote professionnel est bien plus dépendante du degré d’intégration professionnelle que l’adhésion ou l’information syndicales.

On the history of researching electoral sociology

In our modern world electoral sociology, which is under constant scrutiny by the general public, as well as members of the media, in many ways shapes the image of sociology as a scientific discipline. Today sociology is often represented by media reports about the results of public opinion polls on the subject of politics and electoral affairs. Meanwhile a certain other trend is apparent: the high expectations imposed on electoral studies, as well as on their verifiability and efficiency, encourage the further development of sociological research and sociology in general. Scientific studies on electoral processes are defined by the convergence of various schools and paradigms of research, which implies an overlapping of different approaches and methods. This article presents the stages of electoral sociology’s development, from “straw polls” to contemporary theories of electoral behavior (the straw poll stage, electoral sociology in the 1930’s and 1940’s, ecological analysis in electoral sociology, the behavioral approach, the sociological theory on electoral behavior, the socio-psychological theory of electoral behavior, the theory of instrumental rationality), which in modern electoral sociology are known as “post-Gallup” theories. The author reveals the main characteristics of each stage of modern electoral sociology’s development, while highlighting its achievements and value, and giving a comprehensive analysis of modern theories of electoral behavior, with regards to issues located on the line between political sociology and sociology of law. Among these issues special consideration is given to elections as a political phenomenon, the political culture and political attitudes of the electorate, features of voting systems, political mechanisms and electoral technologies.

De las calles a las instituciones. Protesta popular y conquista del poder municipal en Madrid (1909)

En este artículo se abordan los éxitos electorales obtenidos por la izquierda madrileña en los comicios municipales de mayo y diciembre de 1909, insertos en el contexto de intensa agitación sociopolítica correspondiente a la crisis del Gobierno Largo de Antonio Maura. Escapando de los clásicos esquemas de los estudios de sociología electoral basados en la reproducción de campañas y resultados, este texto concede el protagonismo al imparable proceso de urbanización de Madrid y al desarrollo en sus barrios de nuevos mecanismos de acción colectiva y contestación social a la hora de entender la trascendencia de unas elecciones municipales que permitieron a republicanos y a socialistas el acceso a las instituciones y a la gestión del espacio público.

Editorial

20 years after the return of Hong Kong to China, we give particular emphasis to articles dealing with the relations between Hong Kong and the People’s Republic. This issue also reflects the wide range of topics (electoral sociology, the political economy of the media, industrial policy, the sociology of public involvement, mass mobilisations) as well as the different geographical areas covered by our journal (the People’s Republic, Hong Kong, and Taiwan).

Comparative Causation at Multiple Levels and Across Scientific Disciplines

In this paper, we analyse the fruitfulness of Ronald Giere’s comparative model for causation in populations. While the original model was primarily developed to capture the meaning of causal claims in the biomedical and health sciences, we want to show that the model is not only useful in these domains, but can also fruitfully be applied to other scientific domains. Specifically, we demonstrate that the model is fruitful for characterizing the meaning of causal claims found in classical genetics, epidemiology and electoral sociology. Additionally, we propose an adapted comparative model which is needed to get a grip on higher level causal claims. We show that such claims are present in population genetics, (environmental) epidemiology and electoral systems research. We conclude with some reflections on the implications of our findings for the issue of causal pluralism.

Pakistan's Electoral Sociology: Why do Voters' Vote?

The published literature reviewed indicates that the subject of current research has remained away from scholarly focus. The existing academic literature shows that studies on electoral politics largely focused on social and political determinants of voting behavior. The current study explains that sociology-historical material trajectory of the voting process. This has been continuously shaping aset of dispositions of people through the continued interplay of base structure and superstructure, which have a deep impact on voter choice formation. These dispositions formulate a neo liberal habit us and shape electoral choices of voters controlled by super structural forces who control the process of elections. The present study aimed at investigating the dynamics of voters’ choices. Why do voters vote? This is a key research question that has been explored in this paper.This research focuses on issues in which even electoral systems are operating,and these systems are manufacturing voting choices. The relationship of base structure and superstructures are the major framework that determines the behavior of voters in the larger electoral process. This is qualitative and theoretical study, and evidence have been taken from Hazara and Pothohar regions of Pakistan.

La Unión Republicana en el corazón de la monarquía. El triunfo electoral de 1903

Este trabajo analiza el triunfo republicano en las elecciones a Cortes de 1903 en Madrid mediante el análisis de los mecanismos de movilización y captación del voto utilizados por la candidatura del proyecto coalicionista de Unión Republicana. Se abordan en él claves contextuales que permiten explicar el éxito republicano, como los sucesos estudiantiles de Salamanca de abril de 1903 y el clima de conflictividad social alcanzado después en Madrid. Finalmente, se realiza un ejercicio de sociología electoral analizando el voto republicano a través de una perspectiva microhistórica. Para esta tarea se ha acudido a las actas electorales y a su cruzamiento con los datos del Padrón de Habitantes de Madrid de 1905, fuente documental básica para conocer el perfil socioprofesional de cada zona.

Associazionismo cattolico e politica. Tensioni valoriali e dissonanze cognitive

Is there a specific typical Catholic in terms of voting orientation and representation of politics? The results of the study presented below are aimed to try and find answers to this question. The study is part of a series of in-depth studies of the Electoral Sociology Observatory of the Department of Communication and Social Research, of the «Sapienza» University of Rome, and focuses on the values and political orientations of Catholics belonging to the varied world of associations and activism. The analysis was carried out through an ad hoc survey, and focus groups were conducted to highlight the concept of politics and Catholic activism in Rome at the eve of the elections in February 2013

Political practices from the sidelines: A qualitative approach to political ambivalence in contemporary working-class youth in France

As a supplement to the classic works of electoral studies, this article investigates the relationships to politics and vote of working-class youth from the Parisian banlieues on the basis of a qualitative field study conducted during the 2012 presidential campaign. In doing so it addresses the general question of why and how a population that is usually seen as disconnected from politics votes anyway. We show that disinterest in politics does not equate to dispossession. Internal divides within the working class, elliptic appropriations, personal references and everyday life all contribute to the construction of opinions that translate into electoral positions. Finally, this article constitutes a methodological contribution to electoral sociology in addition to quantitative works.