Electoral Rise Research Articles

Hindutva, Hindu Diaspora and Communal Unrest in Leicester

ABSTRACT A rightward shift in politics and the electoral rise of the Hindu nationalist party in India also influenced the thinking of the Hindu diaspora living across the world for years. This paper examines the link between Hindu nationalism in India and a growing Hinduness among the Indian diaspora population, mainly among the second-generation members of the community living in the United Kingdom. The paper analyses the communal clashes held in Leicester in 2022, which were not sudden but a result of tensions bubbling for many years among the communal groups that had been living together for years.

Is Milei a populist? People and market in the new radical right in Argentina

ABSTRACT The electoral rise of Milei, that brought him up to the presidency of Argentina in 2023, has run in parallel with discussions about his use of populist ideas. Overall, Milei is characterised by his emphasis on economic issues, with an extreme pro-market position based on the Austrian school, but he also stands out for a strong anti-establishment discourse. While observers may consider these appeals as populist, a categorisation based on just this feature could be premature given the multidimensional nature of populism. This article tests the importance of populism in the discourse of Milei displaying an empirical strategy based on the holistic grading of key political discourses. Main results indicate that Milei’s discourse is partially populist because it lacks a people-centred vision, even one anchored in market rationality. We expect these results will facilitate comparisons of the Argentinian case with other Latin-American cases in which populism and neoliberalism seem to be mutually reinforcing.

Competing on competence: the issue profiles of mainstream parties in Western Europe

Despite a more volatile electoral landscape and in many countries also the electoral rise of niche parties, major mainstream parties continue to define the major political alternatives that citizens in Western Europe face when it comes to government alternatives. However, the voluminous literature on party competition in Western Europe mostly takes niche parties as the starting point to understand the consequences of the changing electoral landscape and also to understand the issue strategies of major mainstream parties. These parties should come to the centerstage. They pursue a common competence strategy which leads them to focus particularly on macroeconomics, health care, and education where they can document government competence to large parts of the electorate. This implies an increased overall similarity in their issue profiles. These findings are based on CAP coded party manifestos from seven countries since the early 1980s.

Post-industrial alignment and class support for radical left parties in Southern Europe

ABSTRACT Focusing on Southern Europe during the sharp electoral rise of radical left parties (RLPs) (2008–2020), this article identifies a post-industrial pattern of class support for the radical left. Leveraging survey data, it shows class support for the radical left is linked to a horizontal distinction in the labour market based on work logic. RLPs attract mostly those working in face-to-face service jobs, lower-grade associate professionals voting based on cultural and economic preferences, and unskilled routine workers voting out of economic preferences. Radical left support in post-industrial Southern Europe is thus stronger among service workers and segments of the professional middle classes than among production workers.

Sexism and the Far‐Right Vote: The Individual Dynamics of Gender Backlash

AbstractThis article contends that sexism plays a fundamental role in the electoral rise of the far right, both as a predisposition and as a changing attitude. Using panel data from Spain, we show that modern sexism is indeed among the most important attitudinal predictors of voting for the far‐right party Vox. The results also show that internal individual changes in levels of modern sexism impact far‐right voting. Backlash attitudinal change, defined as increases in sexism occurring in a context of feminist momentum, contributed significantly to the recent emergence of the radical right. Our findings indicate that sexism is not a crystalized attitude but rather susceptible to showing short‐term changes with important political consequences. This highlights the importance of understudied context‐dependent individual dynamics of gender backlash in far‐right voting.

Consumption inequality and poverty in Greece: Evidence and lessons from a decade-long crisis

The paper assesses evolutions in consumption inequality and poverty in Greece from the onset of the economic crisis in 2009 until the completion of the last structural adjustment programme in 2019, being the first to analyse distributional developments under the SYRIZA-led government as contrasted to the period that led to its electoral rise. Using microsimulation analysis on several waves of Household Budget Survey data, this study finds that the left-led government elected in 2015 reversed trends of steeply escalating inequality and poverty of the 2009–2014 period. By adopting policies with clearly Rawlsian characteristics, primarily the least well-off and partly the middle class gained some lost ground. However, distributional changes were mostly marginal, when compared to the massive adverse developments of the 2009–2014 period. At the same time, the disequalising effect of indirect taxation became stronger as further tax hikes were employed to achieve fiscal consolidation targets. Our results suggest that even well-targeted redistributive policies, unless sufficiently generous, have limited capacity to actually lift people out of poverty and multilevel policies affecting the distribution of market incomes are necessary. If the NextGenerationEU recovery plan is set to achieve inclusive growth, this an important lesson for policy makers.

Protest and Electoral Breakthrough: Challenger Party-Movement Interactions in Germany

This paper studies party-movement interactions in Germany, focusing on Die Linke and the AfD, the two most recent additions to Germany’s multi-party system. The electoral rise of both challenger parties went along with mass protests, opposition to Hartz IV in the mid-2000s and anti-Islamic PEGIDA mobilisation in the mid-2010s. We shift the emphasis from how social movements turn into political parties, including significant organisational and personal overlap, to more indirect ways of how protest and electoral politics interact. Specifically, we identify a process composed of two interrelated mechanisms: an external politicisation spiral and an intra-party innovation spiral. We show how mass protest triggers both discursive shifts in the public sphere and internal strategic realignment, providing an opportunity for parties to ride the wave, secure their competitive advantages, and mobilise on the protestors’ grievances in the electoral arena. In such a way, challenger parties can take advantage of street protests even when they do not directly emerge from a movement. Methodologically, the article is based on a paired comparison, relying on survey data and an original protest event analysis that provides novel data on anti-Hartz IV and PEGIDA protest mobilisation in Germany.

Global warming and polarization. Wind turbines and the electoral success of the greens and the populist radical right

AbstractThe increased salience of environmental concerns, first and foremost global warming, is one of the key developments of contemporary Western European politics. Still, the effects of global warming issues on electoral outcomes, party competition and polarization remain poorly understood. Our article shows how the construction of wind turbines fuels conflict between its key proponents and opponents, Green and populist radical right parties. Contention over the issue contributes to the electoral success of both sides and therefore reinforces the new central divide between them. Drawing on a novel dataset, we investigate the impact of the construction of wind turbines on Alternative für Deutschland and Green party electoral success in Germany. We employ a two‐way fixed effects model, where the construction of wind turbines functions as the independent variable. We show that the construction of wind turbines boosts the electoral support of both their biggest supporters and their biggest opponents. Our results have important implications for understanding contemporary political conflict in Western Europe such as the electoral rise of the Greens and the populist radical right, the importance of issue salience and the polarization of party systems.

Abstiegserfahrungen in der Kommune und der Aufstieg Unabhängiger Wählergemeinschaften. Neue Befunde aus einem Mehrebenen-Kommunalwahlpanel

In Germany, Independent Local Lists (UWG) have become an integral part of local politics in recent decades . Despite their growing political importance, the reasons for their electoral rise have hardly been researched . Recent studies argue that Independent Local Lists pursue anti-party positions, which makes them attractive to voters who are dissatisfied with the party system . Assuming that a decline of confidence in established parties corresponds with the experience of local deprivation, this contribution uses a multi-level panel data set to investigate how socio-economic (emigration, aging, declining tax revenue) and political­cultural (turnout, fragmentation) deprivation processes affect the electoral success of Inde­pendent Local Lists . The empirical findings suggest that Independent Local Lists are more successful in municipalities where voter turnout has fallen and political fragmentation has increased .

The role of social movements in the ‘second incorporation’ of popular sectors in Bolivia and Argentina

Latin American ‘Pink Tide’ has been functionally interpreted as a ‘second wave of incorporation’ of the popular sectors in the polity domain after their ‘disincorporation’ and/or exclusion by authoritarian regimes and/or neoliberal reforms. This contribution proposes a comparative analysis of the roles played by social movements in Bolivian and Argentinean “second incorporations”, by relying on fifty in-depth interviews with partisan and movement leaders in both countries, in order to assess the different characteristics and consequences of the processes of “second incorporation” in the two countries. The paper argues that the extent to which such actors provide an encompassing representation of ‘excluded sectors’ is key to understand how different forms of political incorporation shaped different ‘social blocs’ either supporting or contrasting progressive political projects in power, and eventually created the conditions, in the medium term, for the electoral rise of right-wing opponents.

Ideological Vote and Electoral Performance of the Bolivian MAS, 2002–2014

ABSTRACTSince 2005, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) has become a predominant party in the Bolivian party system. Despite its origin as a small, indigenous, and peasant-based party, the MAS has achieved an electoral performance unprecedented in Bolivian political history. What accounts for its electoral rise? Unlike available explanations based on sociostructural, institutional, or contextual factors, this article argues that ideological location decisions served as a signaling device that allowed the MAS to differentiate itself from its competitors. In so doing, the party managed to transcend the border of ethnic and regional cleavages, appealing to a broader electorate, which contributed decisively to its electoral success. Using data from public opinion surveys and based on statistical models, this article shows that ideology was pivotal in Bolivians’ decisions to vote for the MAS, particularly during the early period of its electoral takeoff.

Populism Put to the Polarisation Test: The 2019–20 Election Cycle in Italy

ABSTRACT One year after the birth of an unprecedented government characterised by the strong populist stance of both coalition partners (M5S and the Lega) and amid a growing polarisation in party positions on a number of political issues, the European and regional elections of 2019–20 marked an important test for Italy. After presenting the results of the 2019–20 election cycle, the article investigates the most salient lines of party competition and the varying degrees of polarisation. Our analysis shows two kinds of polarisation: the first being the intra-coalitional polarisation which characterised the first Conte government; while the second, affecting the party system as a whole, is driven by the electoral rise of far-right parties.

With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election

American elections have become increasingly nationalized and highly predictable; with partisanship serving as an identity-based, dominant vote determinant for all but a small portion of Americans. Rather than a relatively fixed pool of voters rewarding or punishing the parties for their platforms or performance in office like elections of the past, the two party’s electoral fortunes rise and fall with the ebb and flow of turnout among key elements of their increasingly fixed coalitions; mobilized or demobilized by gaining or losing control of the presidency. Voters from the party out-of-power, galvanized to vote by negative partisanship, increase their turnout in subsequent elections, while turnout from the party in-power wanes due to complacency. The electoral performance of the opposition party is also improved by the predictable movement of pure Independent voters away from the party in power due the hyper-partisan and highly-charged negative political environment. The size of the “swing” of pure Independents is conditioned on economic conditions or on other “shocks” to the political system such as unpopular wars or unpopular incumbent presidents. The Negative Partisanship model predicted the Democrat's 40 seat House gain four months before Election Day in the 2018 Midterms. The 2020 forecast currently shows Democrats recapturing the White House with 278 Electoral College votes, including the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Timing, sequences and new party institutionalization in South America

While party system institutionalization is widely addressed in the literature, the conditions of institutionalization on the level of individual parties are still insufficiently explored, especially for Latin America. The region provides a broad variety of new parties, whose divergent developments cannot be explained by structural or institutional factors. Recently, a range of genetic explanations has been proposed, which attribute new party institutionalization to their conditions of emergence. These accounts, however, leave questions about later stages of party institutionalization open. We propose a more comprehensive approach, integrating different dimensions and covering the whole path of new party institutionalization. We start from the proposition that in the process of party development, tensions and contradictions arise between internal, organizational consolidation on the one hand and external relations to voters and competitors, on the other, which make it difficult to institutionalize in both dimensions at the same time. We, therefore, argue that new parties are only able to institutionalize successfully when institutionalization proceeds in a sequential way, with internal institutionalization preceding electoral rise and external institutionalization. We substantiate our supposition by matching the expected sequential pattern of institutionalization to four empirical cases, the Brazilian Workers’ Party (PT), the Uruguayan Broad Front (FA), the Argentine FREPASO and the Venezuelan Causa R. Based on these cases we will show that successful parties indeed follow this script, while new party failure can be attributed to their lack of institutionalized internal structures in the moment of electoral rise.

India after the 2014 general elections: BJP dominance and the crisis of the third party system

ABSTRACTThis article critically assesses claims that India has entered a new party system after the 2014 general elections, marked by renationalisation with the BJP as the new ‘dominant’ party.’ To assess these claims, we examine the electoral rise of the BJP in the build-up to and since the 2014 general elections until the state assembly elections in December 2018. Overall, we argue that despite the emerging dominance of the BJP, a core feature of the third party system -a system of binodal interactions- has remained largely intact albeit in a somewhat weaker form. Furthermore, by comparing the post 2014 Indian party system with key electoral features of the first three party systems, we conclude that the rise of the BJP has thrown the third-party system into crisis, but does not yet define the consolidation of a new party system.

The Rise and Fall of Citizenship and Human Rights Education in Turkey.

Purpose: This article shows the effects of competing political forces on citizenship education in Turkey during the period of commitment to European Union (EU) accession (1999-2005). Methodology: It draws on textbooks, archival documents and interviews. Whilst Turkey had a history of civic education to promote a secular national ethos and identity, the post-Cold War democratisation movement encouraged the Turkish government in 1995 to attempt to internationalise civics by adding human rights themes. Findings: This effort occurred at a time when the hegemony of the secular nationalist establishment was challenged by the electoral rise of an Islamist party. Although Citizenship and Human Rights course suited the purposes of the secular nationalist establishment, after the EU recognised Turkey as a candidate in 1999, a new political Islamist government, elected in 2002, chose first to align the course with its ideology and later decided to repeal it. By exploring the evolution of the curriculum in a crucial period in which political power was switching from the ideology of secular nationalism to that of religious (Islamist) nationalism, the present study illustrates ways in which external and internal influences may affect citizenship education. In particular, it contributes to debates over the role of international agencies in curriculum change in citizenship education.

Wind from the North, don’t go forth? Gender equality and the rise of populist nationalism in Finland

The article considers the future prospects of the struggle for gender equality in light of the growing appeal and electoral success of parties embracing populist nationalism and anti-immigration as their platform. Considering many such parties are known for viewing the promotion of gender equality as unnecessary or even harmful – except when they highlight immigration as a threat to female emancipation – it is important to explore what, if anything, the electoral success of populist-nationalist parties means for the direction of gender equality policies. The article examines this question in the Finnish context. Though the Finnish state’s commitment to gender equality is well-established, questions can be asked about the future prospects of gender equality policies in light of the electoral rise of the populist anti-immigration party Perussuomalaiset (or ‘True Finns’), especially since the party joined government in May 2015. The article scrutinises the recent record of PS in parliament and government, elucidating on the challenges that populist-nationalist parties create for gender equality in (allegedly) ‘women-friendly’ welfare states. The case study particularly focuses on gender equality in the context of balancing work and family and freedom from violence, discrimination and harassment. It raises questions that are of broader relevance to the future of gender equality in Europe, considering the Nordic states have been viewed as models for a gender egalitarian society and frontrunners in the promotion of gender equality within the EU.

SYRIZA’s Electoral Rise in Greece: Protest, Trust and the Art of Political Manipulation

Between 2010 and 2015, a period of significant political change in Greece, the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), a minor party, achieved and consolidated major party status. This article explores the role of political strategy in SYRIZA’s electoral success. It argues that, contrary to accepted wisdom, targeting a ‘niche’ constituency or protesting against the establishment will not suffice for a minor party to make an electoral breakthrough. SYRIZA’s case demonstrates that unless a minor party is ready to claim that it is willing and able to take on government responsibility, electoral advancement will not be forthcoming. The success of SYRIZA’s strategy can be attributed to favourable electoral demand factors and apt heresthetic manipulation of issue dimensions.

Van Volksunie (VU) naar Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA)

The electoral rise of the Belgian regionalist party New-Flemish Alliance (N-VA) from scratch to the country's largest party is remarkable. We explore here to what extent the party has shifted in ideological terms compared to its less successful predecessor VU. We make use of party member survey data (a dynamic indicator of a party's position). We distinguish three factors that impact on parties' positions: institutional reforms, the influx of new members and changes in the internal power distribution. The results show a clear change: on each of the five policy dimensions (centre-periphery, socio-economic, moralethical, post-materialist and migration issues), significant differences could be found.

Tsipras and the Rhetorical Speech as Policy

It is the first time after the restoration of democracy in Greece that such a U-turn has been conducted. The radical, unconventional and extreme rhetoric against harsh austeritywas sharply transformed into a tactical retreat in order to supposedly support more effectively the public interest. SYRIZA, a heterogeneous alloy of leftist tendencies, treated the popular anger and resentment towards harsher austerity measures in order to achieve electoral rise. Consequently, it was rapidly transformed from a small – protest – party into a power party. In this instance, it transformed, without moral curb, citizens’ despair into an extreme rhetoric which defended their “rights” in order to rise to power. Namely, SYRIZA treated instrumentally the expectations of the desperate as a means to rise to power in order to benefit the party but not for the whole society.