Electoral Decline Research Articles

The Long Decline of South Africa's ANC

ABSTRACT: Three decades after the African National Congress (ANC) won 62.7 percent of the vote that propelled Nelson Mandela into the presidency in 1994, the ANC's vote share plummeted to 40.2 percent of the national vote in South Africa's 2024 general election (down from 57.5 percent five years previously,= and well below the 50 percent predicted by preelection polls). Against thirty years of pessimistic academic literature predicting the opposite, the ANC accepted electoral defeat. But this left the ANC in a strategic quandary. Had it reached the upper 40 percent range, easy coalitions with small parties would have passed the 50 percent threshold. But with only 40 percent, the party reached back into the early years of democracy and formed a government of national unity—a multiparty coalition that left the ANC's most significant political opponents out in the cold. ANC (and national) president Cyril Ramaphosa has sidelined Africanist parties and created a coalition with decidedly centrist parties. The "broad church" which has bedeviled the ANC is at an end. Multiparty coalition government has arrived in South Africa, but questions remain: Can ANC electoral decline be arrested by this sharp move towards the center? And what, if any, substantive role is there for the ANC in the future if not?

Party positions and the changing gender gap(s) in voting

Why, despite increased female support, do social democratic parties (SDPs) in most Western European countries face electoral decline? To study this puzzle, we harness a well-documented regularity: diminishing support for SDPs by manual workers and their increased support for the far right. We contend that this trend is intensified in contexts where the economic positions of SDPs align with market-oriented policies or converge with those of the far right. Additionally, as men are disproportionately represented among manual workers, this shift contributes to the reversal of the gender gap in support for SDPs. Drawing on public opinion data from 18 countries spanning half a century, along with labor and party economic position data, our findings substantiate this argument.

The costs and benefits of governing in a multi-level system

ABSTRACT In recent years the ‘cost of governing’ has significantly increased for some mainstream political parties. In a context of financial uncertainty, multiple crises and growing constraints exerted by global forces, being a ‘natural’ party of government is no longer regarded as an electoral advantage. This is particularly true for parties that have moved from a position of clear dominance within ruling coalitions to a more subordinate role. In this article, focusing on the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and using an original dataset, we aim to provide a more nuanced assessment of the effects of incumbency by examining regional electoral performance since 1990. It appears that sub-national incumbency can be beneficial in regional elections, especially when a party faces significant costs of governing at the national level. However, this advantage is only applicable if the party holds a leading position in the regional executive. On the contrary, being a junior coalition partner at both national and regional levels may further exacerbate electoral decline for the party.

The shifting landscape of the Italian left: Exploring its contemporary state

ABSTRACT This article asks, ‘What’s left of the Italian left?’ arguing that an answer to the question presupposes having the answer to four more specific questions, namely, what does the term ‘left’ mean? What parties belong to this category thus defined? What accounts for the parties’ electoral decline since the end of the cold war? What, if anything, can be done to revive their fortunes? I argue that the terms ‘left’ and ‘right’ describe a spatial metaphor having to do with attitudes to equality. The electoral difficulties of the parties belonging to this category over the past thirty years can be explained by reference to three interlinked processes of long-term economic, social and political change that help account for the electoral decline of mainstream parties of the left in Western democracies in general in recent decades. In the context of globalization, a revival of the fortunes of the left in Italy appears to lie in the direction of an embrace of a social democratic ideology combined with a renewed emphasis on the principal of internationalism.

Who benefits from the social democratic march to the middle?

AbstractSocial democratic parties have experienced considerable electoral decline recently, which has often been attributed to their rightward policy movement. This paper advances this literature by examining who benefits from this moderation strategy and who is abandoning the social democrats. It does so by analyzing aggregate-level election results and individual-level Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data, on a sample of 21 advanced democracies, over 327 elections, from 1965 to 2019. I find little support for the assertion that social democrats are defecting to one party. However, in agreement with the spatial theory of party competition, results reveal that the radical left increasingly and significantly benefit from social democratic economic rightward positions, which is magnified when combined with rightward sociocultural positions. This predominantly occurs because left-leaning voters migrate to the radical left. The findings provide notable ramifications for party strategy and contribute to explanations for the rise of challenger parties, at the expense of mainstream parties.

How have secularisation and educational expansion affected support for the mainstream right in Western Europe?

While the electoral decline of Social democracy has received considerable attention in the literature, much less is known about how the structural changes experienced by advanced capitalist societies in the past decades have affected support for the mainstream right. In order to fill this gap, this article examines the relationship between secularisation, educational expansion and support for Conservative and Christian democratic parties in 18 West European democracies since the 1960s. The analysis reveals that secularisation is negatively associated with support for the mainstream right, but the effect is only significant for Christian democratic parties. Moreover, the findings support the expectation that social conservatism tends to damage the electoral prospects of mainstream right parties in highly educated societies. This suggests that, although engaging in cultural wars might sometimes seem like a winning strategy in the short term, it is unlikely to produce long-term positive electoral returns for the centre-right in post-industrial contexts.

Denmark: Political Developments and Data in 2021

AbstractCovid‐19 restrictions were lifted in 2021, leaving more room for policy initiatives from the government, which were delivered throughout the year on, for example, climate, housing, transport and decentralization. Regional/municipal elections showed that the Danish party system was still characterized by a stable core, even though some change happened. Prominent members of parliament have left the Liberals. New parties are eligible to stand for election, and a total of 12 parties are represented in Parliament, with one to two more eligible to stand for an election that was to be held June 2023 at the latest. Most interestingly, former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen broke with the Liberals, his party of 40 years, and formed a new party, the Moderates. The Danish People's Party saw more internal disagreement, electoral decline and a new party chair.

Surviving But Not Thriving: VOX and Spain in Times of COVID-19

AbstractIn this article, we triangulate qualitative data regarding the framing of the pandemic and the strategic decisions taken by Spain's new populist radical right-wing party, VOX, with a quantitative analysis of aggregate polling data and individual-level survey responses to answer three questions: how has VOX framed the politics of the pandemic? What actions has VOX taken in response to COVID-19? Have the events of the COVID-19 crisis affected VOX's electoral chances? We argue that VOX's response to the pandemic has focused on augmenting the antagonistic relationship between itself and the political establishment, especially the left-wing government. Strategically, VOX has sought to leverage the health crisis to engage in legislative manoeuvres aiming, without success, to position itself as the primary party-in-waiting for right-wing voters. We also demonstrate that VOX has proven to be resilient against the potential for electoral decline that was widely prophesied at the beginning of the pandemic.

The leadership dilemma: Examining the impact of strong leaders on parties

AbstractParty leaders are often regarded as crucial to a party's success. Successful leaders tend to be big personalities who dominate their party's organisation, policy development and electoral campaigns. But does that control come with a price? We test to see if such leaders damage their parties in the medium term. This happens because strong leaders might be ceded too much control of the party organisation, policy and electoral strategy. We specifically hypothesise that political parties will go through a period of leadership instability and electoral decline after strong leaders step down. Using a dataset with elections under party leaders in nine countries over a 25‐year period, and a qualitative case study, we find some evidence for the theory, which should prompt further research of the question.

How’s Life After the Collapse? Populism as a Representation Linkage and the Emergence of a Populist/Anti-Populist Political Divide in Italy (1994–2018)

Populism is a hot topic in academia. The causes of this phenomenon have received much attention with many studies focusing on the role of the high levels of unresponsiveness of mainstream parties in triggering a populist response. In this respect, in many cases, populist parties have become a relevant electoral force in the concomitance with an electoral decline of mainstream political options, mostly in the last decades. This article considers a situation in which the whole party system’s unresponsiveness reaches its zenith, and the party system collapses. A collapse is the result of the incapacity of most of the parties in the system to fulfill their basic function, i.e., to represent voters’ interests. When this happens, none of the types of linkages—programmatic, clientelist, or personalist—that tie parties and voters are effective. Empirical observation shows that in those cases populism can perform as a sort of representation linkage to re-connect parti(es) and voters on the basis of the moral distinction between “the people” and “the elite.” Through a discursive strategy of blame attribution, populistm can attract a large portion of the vote. At this point, its opposing ideology—anti-populism—also arouses. In other words, populism/anti-populism may result in a political cleavage that structures the party system by itself or, more frequently, with other cleavages. To elucidate this argument, the paper explores the case of Italy between 1994 and 2018. The electoral relevance of populist parties translated first into a discursive cleavage, which, in turn, changed the space of competition with the emergence of a new political axis, namely populism/anti-populism. This paper's central claim is that the dynamics of partisan competition cannot be understood by overlooking the populism/anti-populism political divide. The conclusion touches on one implication of the emergence of this political cleavage, namely change of the incentives for coalition building. In fact, when populism and anti-populism structure, at least partially, the party system changing the space of interparty competition, this in turn may affect the determinants behind parties’ coalition-building choices.

The rightward shift and electoral decline of social democratic parties under increasing inequality

Recent electoral results reveal a pronounced decline in the fortunes of Social Democratic parties. Much of the decline debate has revolved around their rightward policy shifts, which have turned Social Democrats away from their founding principle of equality in an age of increasing inequality. Thus, this article examines the interconnections of these major changes in the Western political economy. In doing so, it contributes to the identification of income inequality as a key mechanism moderating Social Democratic policy offerings and their support. It does so through aggregate-level election results and individual-level survey responses on a sample of 22 advanced democracies, over 336 elections, from 1965–2019. Results reveal that rightward economic movements of Social Democrats significantly reduce their vote share under higher levels of income inequality or when they are combined with rightward socio-cultural movements. The findings provide an important explanation for the pronounced electoral decline of Social Democratic parties.

The caste question in West Bengal politics: continuing inconsequentiality or rising relevance?

ABSTRACT The electoral decline of the organised Left in West Bengal politics has given rise to intellectual speculation about the increasing possibility of caste politics. In this context, this article investigates whether there is any merit in the claim that the electoral decline of the Left Front has paved the way for the rise of caste at the centre stage of mainstream electoral politics in West Bengal. It asks whether lower castes have started to mobilise politically in West Bengal in the same way as in many other states. The article argues against the claim of ‘a new politics of caste’ in West Bengal by showing that the electoral decline of the Left Front has not been accompanied by any rise in lower caste representation. In this context, the article also attempts to understand the reasons for the continuing non-politicisation of caste in West Bengal, revealing many factors relating to demography and political economy which don’t augur well for caste politics in West Bengal.

Realinhamentos Partidários no Estado do Rio de Janeiro (1982-2018)

O presente artigo investiga o processo de realinhamento partidário em curso no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foram observados os partidos dos governadores e senadores eleitos no Rio de Janeiro pelo voto direto entre 1982 e 2018. Além dos governadores, foram avaliadas as bancadas partidárias eleitas para a Assembleia Legislativa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, ALERJ, e para a Câmara dos Deputados durante todo o período. A pesquisa confirmou a hipótese do recente realinhamento partidário no Rio de Janeiro e identificou que, com o declínio eleitoral do brizolismo, e com a prisão das principais lideranças locais do PMDB a partir de 2016, o tradicional centro político do estado – PDT pela centro-esquerda e PMDB pela centro-direita – implodiu e novos partidos oriundos dos extremos do espectro político emergiram como PSL, PRB e PSC, pela direita, e PSOL, pela esquerda.

Financial bailouts and the decline of establishment politics

This article identifies and tests a mechanism to explain how exposure to financial bailouts accounts for the electoral decline of establishment parties. Given the limitation of economic voting theories to fully explain the electoral shifts observed in Europe from 2010 onwards, this research develops a different explanation. Citizens who were exposed to the macroeconomic conditions of financial bailouts not only observed the consequences of drastic fiscal adjustment packages but, possibly, also underwent a process of political learning. By putting economic responsibility before policy responsiveness, establishment parties showed citizens that voting for these parties did not necessarily implied policy change. This political learning led some citizens not to vote for these parties in subsequent elections. These theoretical claims are tested using individual data from the sixth round of the European Social Survey as well as data from European and parliamentary elections observed between 1991 and 2019 in eleven countries of the Eurozone.

LLOYD GEORGE AND THE ELECTORAL DECLINE OF THE BRITISH LIBERAL PARTY IN THE 1920s

ABSTRACTThis article reassesses the electoral decline of British Liberalism in the 1920s, especially the catastrophic defeat of 1924. A leading explanation for this disaster is that the Liberals were ‘fighting to lose’ by leaving nearly 250 constituencies uncontested. David Lloyd George is widely seen as deliberately seeking to destroy his party by refusing to finance candidates through his infamous ‘fund’, so he could lead what remained after electoral evisceration. His actions are widely credited with stymieing prospects of a Liberal recovery in the next election, 1929, which confirmed the party's permanent replacement by Labour. Through a wide-ranging statistical reanalysis, supported by a study of grassroots constituency campaigns, this article argues that the lack of candidates was a negligible contributor either to Liberal annihilation in 1924, or to Liberal failure to recover in 1929. The sharply deteriorating health of the party was already felt keenly at the grassroots before, not after, the seemingly freak result of 1924 was known. We thus argue that, contrary to the judgement of historians and contemporaries, the 1924 result represented the truer reflection of the party's fundamental interwar strength, with 1923 the exception. The inaction of Lloyd George in 1924 thus can be interpreted as pragmatic rather than Machiavellian.

Lost connection? The attitudinal and ideological (in)congruence of social democracy’s elites, members and voters in Flanders-Belgium

In this article we investigate the electoral decline of the Flemish social democratic party sp.a by analysing the intraparty (in)congruence in opinion structure using a unique pooled dataset that contains party elites, members and voters in Flanders-Belgium. We combine two complementary approaches on incongruence: attitudinal and ideological congruence. A hypothesis derived from post-Marxism is formulated in terms of attitudinal congruence and tested using pairwise means comparisons, while hypotheses from cleavage theory are formulated in terms of ideological incongruence and tested empirically using Latent Class Analysis. Results show that party elites predominantly adhere to a left-universalistic ideology while left-particularists have left the party en masse, confirming the realignment thesis of cleavage theory and rejecting expectations from post-Marxist theory. We conclude that Flemish social democracy’s left-universalistic elites have largely lost connection with their left-particularistic base while managing an insufficient appeal among (centre-)left-universalistic middle class voters.

Combining the best of both worlds? Party members and citizens’ initiatives in Belgium

ABSTRACT The linkage function of political parties is put under pressure the last few decades (testified by increased electoral volatility and decline in party membership). As a result, it is assumed that citizens increasingly seek for other forms of participation, especially in their own neighborhood. These so-called ‘citizen initiatives’ are not organized by the political elite and they have no (formal) affiliations with political parties. But this ‘transformation thesis’ is questioned by the ‘pluralization thesis’ that assumes that party members combine different types of participation (including engagement in citizen initiatives). In this paper, we estimate whether party members are pursuing their goals (also) with other means than party membership, or whether citizen initiatives constitute a complete distinct form of participation. In addition, we investigate which factors at the individual (e.g. resources) and party level (e.g. ideology) correlate with participation behaviour. We rely on data gathered in recent party member surveys in five Belgian political parties. We find that that distinctions between types of participation are less clear-cut than often assumed, and that a considerable number of citizens act as ‘civic omnivores’ combining different types of participation (supporting the pluralization thesis). This is especially true for members of green parties.

Paper Stones Revisited: Class Voting, Unionization and the Electoral Decline of the Mainstream Left

Relying on post-election surveys, we analyze how class and union membership condition voters’ abandonment of mainstream Left parties and the alternatives chosen by former mainstream-Left voters in the period 2001–2015. Inspired by Przeworski and Sprague’s Paper Stones (1986), our analysis shows that Left parties face a trade-off between mobilizing workers and other voters and that unionization renders workers more loyal to Left parties that mobilize non-workers. By contrast, unionization does not render non-workers more loyal to Left parties that mobilize workers. Union membership increases the likelihood that workers who abandon the mainstream Left continue to vote. It also increases the likelihood that voters abandon the mainstream Left in favor of radical Left parties rather than Center-Right parties. Finally, we show that workers are more likely to abandon mainstream Left parties in favor of radical Right parties than non-workers and that union membership does not affect their propensity to do so. We conclude that reversing the decline of working-class organization should be a long-term objective of mainstream Left parties.

Does Moderation Pay in a Consociational Democracy? The Marginalisation of the SDLP in the North of Ireland

AbstractA central question in the debate between “centripetalists” and “consociationalists” concerns whether power‐sharing arrangements provide incentives for moderation. This article helps to formulate an empirical answer through an examination of the electoral decline of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) following the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in the North of Ireland. Drawing on primary qualitative interviews with key players, this article argues that the SDLP were electoral losers under a system of ethnic out‐flanking. Sinn Féin has successfully presented itself as the “greener” and more robust representative of nationalist interests, whilst simultaneously moderating its message and operating the institutions of Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin has taken ownership of the GFA and has positioned itself as the party best able to ensure its delivery. Sinn Féin’s rights‐based agenda, and vibrant electoral machine, has resonated with the nationalist electorate who are less sure of what the contemporary SDLP stands for.

The African National Congress and its transfer of power from Zuma to Ramaphosa: the intraparty-multiparty nexus

The African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa in the period 2016–2018 repositioned itself away from electoral decline that could have taken it to a point of losing an outright electoral majority. In a historical moment it elected a new ANC president and then installed the new ANC president, Cyril Ramaphosa, as president of South Africa. These were normal, rational party political acts in many respects. In the context of the politics that preceded these acts, however, they were extraordinary steps and the transition to a post-Zuma order was achieved against odds of Zuma’s determination not to leave, his calculated strategy to install a proxy candidate instead of Ramaphosa, his capture of large enclaves of state power, and fusion of his faction with state power. Besides extensive campaigning to sway the ANC’s voting delegates at its Nasrec conference of December 2017, the ANC strategy hinged on the knowledge gained from public opinion polls showing that an ongoing top-level Zuma presence would in all likelihood deprive the ANC of an outright majority in the national elections of 2019. This intra-interparty nexus is the focus of the article. Through interview data, reviews of public polling trends, and direct observation of political events, the analysis assesses dimensions of the unfolding ANC repositioning. It compares the intra-interparty nexus in the ANC’s operations with those of liberation movement parties of southern Africa and positions the analysis in relation to the literature on party dominance and electoral authoritarianism.