Elections Of June Research Articles

A risk assessment framework for electronic voting

E-voting is one of the most basic uses of technology in e-democracy. It offers considerable scope for faster, more efficient and more accurate elections and referenda, not to mention the possibility of more frequent public consultation. However, it is also deeply controversial and has been subject to criticism on a number of fronts, not least from people in the computer industry and citizens concerned about the potential for widespread electoral error or fraud. In Ireland, these factors contributed to the government having to abandon plans to introduce electronic voting for the European and local elections in June 2004. This paper looks at the analysis of risks that was one of the factors that led to this decision and proposes a framework for future risk analysis of e-voting.

The Radical Right in the European Elections 2004

In the new EU member states, the European Parliament elections in June 2004 were anticipated with particular anxiety because of the role of anti-EU, nationalist, and extreme right-wing parties, which in some countries had scored signifi cant electoral successes in the recent past. But also in some of the old member states, the radical right was watched closely, in particular, after the French Front National's historic performance in the 2002 presidential election. Since the radical right feeds on the economic and social crisis and feelings of anxiety raised by EU integration, by globalization, and by anti-establishment feelings, many observers expected a general rise in support for these parties, especially in light of the growing complexity of the expanded EU. This article analyzes the electoral outcome for the radical right in the 2004 elections and discusses country-specifi c characteristics as well as regional patterns. It also looks at the role the radical right played, if any, in the votes on the new EU constitution in various member states. The article shows that, regarding the radical right, the European elections proved to be surprisingly unsurprising. Clearly, EU membership was not the only issue involved. Rather, larger issues of national identity, the strength of nationalist traditions, and some particular features superseded narrow foreign policy concerns and explain, more or less, the electoral success achieved by the radical right. Compared to the EU elections, the referenda on the EU constitution in several member states provided little to no opportunities for the radical right.

Kuwait's oil production plans in confusion

Kuwait is debating ambitious plans to increase its oil production by over 60% between now and 2020, to 3.7 mn bpd. The fate of the proposals, however, is far from clear. There has been widespread criticism of various aspects of the whole scheme, including what, if any, role should be played by foreign oil companies, and even whether Kuwait possesses the reserves to enable it to reach its ambitious target. Many of the criticisms were aired in the emirate's elections in June and the arguments look set to continue, delaying plans which are already, in some cases, several years old.

From Dreams to Reality: The Evolution of Anglo-Canadian Trade During the Diefenbaker Era

The articulated foreign economic policy of the Conservative government of John Diefenbaker following its election in June 1957 was to redirect trade away from the United States and toward the United Kingdom. This policy reflected Diefenbaker's almost religious attachment to the Commonwealth and to Britain, as well as his abiding suspicion of continentalism. However, from these brave beginnings, Conservative trade policy ended up pretty much where the Liberals had been before their 1957 defeat-increasingly reliant on the US market for Canada's domestic prosperity. This was a result partly of the normal development of trade between the two North American countries, but it also reflected Diefenbaker's growing realisation of the market differences between Canada and the United Kingdom, and the impossibility of enhancing the flow of Canadian exports to Britain.

Not All ‘Second-Order’ Contests are the Same: Turnout and Party Choice at the Concurrent 2004 Local and European Parliament Elections in England

The European Parliament elections in June 2004 coincided with local elections in many parts of England. In four regions of the country these elections were conducted entirely by postal ballots; in four other regions traditional methods of polling were used. Overall turnout was higher where all-postal voting was in place, but having local in addition to European elections made an independent and significant contribution to the level of electoral participation in all postal and non-postal regions alike. The pattern of party choice at the two types of contest also varied considerably. The three major political parties together took a much larger share of the overall vote at the local than at the European elections, and each independently ‘lost’ a sizeable number of its local votes to smaller parties. Aggregate level analysis suggests that voters assess the importance of electoral contests along a continuum and, in Britain in 2004 at least, treated local elections as less ‘second-order’ than pan-European ones.

Developments in the New Member States and Applicant Countries

On 1 May 2004 ten candidate countries changed their status to that of new Member States. Eight of them – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia – had been communist regimes only 15 years previously. However, although they had mastered rapid and radical transformation in order to consolidate democracy and a ‘return to Europe’, their domestic political systems still showed signs of instability that distinguished them from the ‘old’ Member States. Half of them changed Prime Minister during the course of 2004 without having a parliamentary election, and their first European Parliament elections in June demonstrated some marked discontinuities in party systems. Four candidate states remained after the first wave of eastern enlargement – Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey – and Macedonia also applied in March 2004 to join. In these countries, the pressure of the EU accession process on the domestic political scene was more explicit than it had been in the central European states, where the entire economic and political reform project of the early post-communist years had coincided with the drive to join the EU. By 2004, the external rules of the game for aspiring members with democratic weaknesses were well established, and thereby fixed the parameters within which politicians and parties could act at home.

The European Parliament Elections of June 2004: Still Second-Order?

A quarter of a century ago the first series of European Parliament elections were characterised as second-order national elections. Much has changed since, which might have had an impact upon this diagnosis. In this article the central assumptions and predictions of the second-order elections model are restated and evaluated against the outcome of the 2004 European Parliament election and a post-election survey. Surprisingly enough, the findings confirm the persisting second-order nature of EP elections for Western Europe. Matters look very different, however, in the eight new Central and East European member countries.

L’antigermanisme et la campagne française pour l’élection du Parlement européen

Anti-German sentiment in France has deep roots that extend back to the middle of the 19th century. A permanent theme of French foreign policy, it manifested itself with force during the campaign for the European elections of June 10, 1979. This explosion can be explained in terms of the fear of a part of the political forces to see themselves dragged too far into a process of European integration that would contribute to submitting France to the economic forces of a Germany very dependent on the United States. The Communists were the main standard bearers of this campaign in which the Gaullists and other politicians participated. An examinationt of the themes of their public statements shows that references to the Third Reich, to trials of former Nazis and to the role that present leaders of the FRG played under Hitler predominated. Criticism of German domestic politics was primarily concerned with the threat to freedoms in the FRG and with the rise of politicians such as Franz Josef Strauss. Comparisons of the economic, commercial and industriel statistics of the Federal Republic of Germany and France fed concerns that prompted once again speculation with respect to German reunification and the association of nuclear weapons with the FRG. In attacking social-democracy the FCP attempted to further undercut Franco-German relations and to accentuate its split with the French Socialist Party. The anti-German campaign did not, in fact, have a great impact on public opinion or government policy. Nevertheless, both the range and persistence of these themes show that xenophobia in general and anti-German sentiment in particular are not on the point of disappearing in France.

The political economy of UK party support, 1997–2004: Forecasts for the 2005 general election

Aggregate‐level models of party support patterns increasingly seek to evaluate both “economic” and “political” explanations of election outcomes. This paper explores the evolution of support for Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats between 1997 and 2004. A number of politico‐economic models are developed and tested against monthly timeseries data for the 1997–2004 period. A variety of different assumptions are then made about likely movements in the key independent variables in these models in the run‐up to the next general election. Finally, these assumptions are used to inform a series of forecasting models in order to produce forecasts of likely party support levels in the early summer of 2005, the presumed time of the next general election. The analysis suggests, on balance, that the best performing statistical model is one that takes account of Blair’s leadership ratings, voters’ personal economic expectations, the “costs of ruling” and the continuing effects of the Iraq war. The central forecast from this model, for an assumed election in June 2005, produces vote shares of 39% for Labour, 31% for the Conservatives and 22% for the Liberal Democrats. Although a wide range of forecast election outcomes can legitimately be derived from the existing data, most of the forecasts reported suggest that a Labour victory is the most likely outcome of the next UK general election.

Zhirinovskii Enters Politics: A Chronology of the Emergence of the Liberal-Democratic Party of the Soviet Union, 1990–1991

The story of how Zhirinovskii managed to rise from a minor Muscovite civil activist in early 1990 to a serious contender in Russia’s first presidential elections of June 1991 still remains to be told. This chronology constitutes a first attempt to list comprehensively most of those activities of Zhirinovskii and his various political allies during this period that were reported in press reports or memoirs. The chronology focuses on the emergence and disappearance of a dubious political alliance called “Centrist Bloc,” as well as the particulars of the registration of the Liberal-Democratic Party of the Soviet Union and the nomination of Zhirinovskii, then a political nobody, as a presidential candidate. The preparation of this publication was possible thanks to support by, among others, the Fritz Thyssen Foundation during a fellowship at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Cambridge, Mass., in 2001–2002. The below chronology has benefited from English language assistance by Michael Filek. All mistakes and –interpretations are, of course, my own

Bill Graham, Pierre Pettigrew, Jim Peterson

SHORTLY BEFORE THREE IN THE AFTERNOON of 5 October 2004, Governor-General Adrienne Clarkson and her husband, the writer John Ralston Saul, pulled up front of the house of commons a black limousine, on the way to deliver the second speech from the throne of Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin.There had been a spate of stories on the possible role of the controversial governor-general if the minority government-the first a quarter of a century-was defeated a vote of confidence the house, but few observers expected anything very dramatic. The most newsworthy item seemed to be the fact that their excellencies, whom critics accused of extravagance and pretence, had arrived a limousine, rather than the traditional horse-drawn landau.The mood was well short of electric, which was fitting. In its speech, the government, which had pulled victory from the jaws of defeat at the 11th hour the run up to the 30 June election, reiterated its bland election promises and expressed the pious hope that all parliamentarians could rise above partisanship.Canada's international role was discussed seventh, after the economy, health, caregivers for children and seniors, aboriginals, cities, and the environment. This shouldn't have been a surprise, given the modest role foreign affairs played the two pre-election debates of the party leaders. Under a section entitled role of pride and influence the the government said that in today's world, effective international engagement is needed to advance national aspirations, and then repeated its plans to release an international policy statement and invest more the military. The following day, an editorial cartoon the National Post captured the spirit of the speech by showing the child's cartoon figure Barney the Dinosaur sitting on a throne singing, alongside the prime minister, I love you, you love me.Two events, however, quickly made a mockery of this somnolent beginning for the government, which was 20 seats short of the majority that makes the passage of legislation so much easier, if not quite automatic. The first event was purely political. Despite the almost universal belief that the opposition parties had nothing to gain by forcing another election and hence would risk nothing to provoke one, Conservative leader Stephen Harper and Bloc Quebecois chief Gilles Duceppe responded to the throne speech with a dangerous game of brinkmanship. They put intense pressure on the government by forcing a vote on a Bloc amendment to the speech. A crisis was narrowly averted at the last moment through the intervention of New Brunswick's Conservative Premier Bernard Lord, who urged restraint.The second event, which exploded the government's face out of the blue the same day, meshes perfectly with this article's examination of the three cabinet ministers responsible for Canada's foreign and defence policy-Defence Minister Bill Graham, Foreign Affairs Minister Pierre Pettigrew and International Trade Minister Jim Peterson. Only four days earlier, the Department of National Defence had issued an upbeat press release about the transfer to the Canadian navy of the newly renamed Chicoutimi, the last of four aging diesel electric submarines purchased from the British navy. Graham said that the handover illustrates the progress we are making establishing a modern submarine fleet that will serve Canadians extremely well for the next 25 years. Despite the delays getting all four submarines to Canada, they represent a vital national asset. Now, it turned out, Chicoutimi had sent a distress signal from the coast of Ireland. News that began as an embarrassment would quickly turn into a tragedy.What became clear is that the government's hopes for a better-received foreign and defence policy than under former Prime Minister Jean Chretien-who was widely criticized both for the deterioration Canada-US relations and the country's modest defence capacity-were not going to be easily realized, even leaving aside potentially dangerous issues such as Canada's participation the United States' ballistic missile defence program. …

Doomed to Defeat? Electoral Support and the Conservative Party

This article recaps the main trends in public opinion and electoral support for the Conservative party since the last general election in June 2001 by examining the overall polling data relating to party popularity. The article also considers by‐elections, local elections and leadership change, as well as the most recent elections in 2004. The various challenges the party faces as it attempts to position itself as a credible alternative government to the Labour party under Tony Blair are considered.Given the clear biases of the electoral system used for the House of Commons, which are certain to benefit Labour substantially even if the Conservatives get close to them in terms of overall vote share, or indeed even overtake them, it still seems unlikely that such success will be sufficient to achieve much more than to reduce Tony Blair's House of Commons majority in 2005.

Michael Howard: The First Jewish Prime Minister?

Initially, Michael Howard seemed the saviour of the divided and disheartened Conservative party, reuniting it in the hope of victory at the next general election. Initially, also, he seemed a match for his fellow barrister, Tony Blair. Though successful at winning over Tory MPs, he was much less effective in relation to all those ex‐Tory voters who deserted the party in 1997 and 2001. This failure was confirmed after less than nine months of his leadership, when his party polled poorly at the European elections of June 2004 (where a large slice of the anti‐European vote went to UKIP) and came an ignominious third in the Parliamentary by‐elections of July 2004. These results, combined with Howard's lacklustre response to the Butler Report, sapped Howard's personal ratings and reopened civil war within the Conservative party.

Les élections régionales et européennes du 13 juin 2004 : Analyse des résultats

In Belgium the European elections and those for the regional councils were held on the same day. The elections of June 13th 2004 deserve a threefold analysis. First a comparison can be made with the results obtained five years ago for the same assemblies. lt shows that in Flanders the socialist party has progressed but that this advance was mainly due to the constitution of a cartel with one faction - Spirit - of the defunct Volksunie. The christian democrats made headway, their progress being enhanced by the contribution of N-VA, the other faction stemming from the Volksunie. The liberals declined fairly markedly as did the green party but to a lesser extent than in the elections for the federal parliament. The June 2004 elections saw above all progress for the extreme right Vlaams Blok, which has become the second biggest party of Flanders with 24 pct of the vote. In the Walloon provinces the socialists progress most thereby increasing the gap separating them from the liberals. The christian democrats advance somewhat while the green party Ecolo declines substantially. The parties of the far right gain support and reach 8.73 pct of the vote. In Brussels the socialist advance is very marked allowing this party to conquer first place to the detriment of the liberals who are in decline. The progress made by frenchspeaking christian democrats is significant.A second approach for the analysis consists in comparing the results of the regional elections with those of the European ones. The differences are slight and rnainly due to the popularity of the candidates. In Belgium there was no "eurosceptic" or "sovereignty" list. The third angle consists in comparing the 2004 results with the ones of the parliamentary elections of 2003. One then observes in Flanders a decline of the socialists, a significant fall in support for the liberals and a progression of the christian democrats. But the main development remains the progression of the Vlaams Blok which gains more than 6 pct compared to its good result of 2003. In the Walloon provinces, the socialists remain at their 2003 level but increase their positive gap with regard to the liberals who are in decline. The christian democrats advance by some 2 pct whereas Ecolo recovers a small part of its 2003 loss. The parties of the far right gain some 1.5 pct. In Brussels, the most noteworthy developrnent is the progress of the frenchspeaking socialists who take over the first place from the liberals.In genera!lthese elections are characterised by a reinforcement of the far right to the detriment of the centre parties and by a status quo of the aggregate consisting of socialists and greens, but to the benefit of the former.

Predikce využívající experimentální trhy

According to the effective market theory, the stock prize on an effective market is the best estimate of the stock's current value. This is the basic assumption for predictions using experimental markets. This article describes the first experimental market organised in the Czech Republic, the experimental political market for Czech parliamentary elections in June 2002. In the beginning we briefly describe the methodology of the predictions via electronic markets. Than we give some description of our market- number of traders, their individual results, development of the market activity in time, etc. Finally we compare the result of our election market with the traditional opinion polls. On the basis of his comparison we discuss the advantages and the limitations of the prediction using the experimental markets.

Voter abstention in the South African general election of 19991

Three and a half million South Africans abstained from voting in the general elections of June 1999. Falling turnout was partly the effect of disenfranchisement, the consequence of registration exclusion, but it also reflected voluntary political disengagement. Political parties were substantially to blame for voter disaffection, for in their electioneering they neglected those groups who were most inclined to abstain. Comparative experience suggests that declining turnout in South Africa may strengthen authoritarian politics.

The French left after the 2002 elections

The presidential and parliamentary elections of 2002 were disastrous for the French Left, brought together in coalition by Mitterrand in the 1960s and 1970s. Already at a loss following the implosion of the Socialist Party and the right-wing landslide of 1993, the position was held for a while by Lionel Jospin and his creation, the ‘plural Left’ coalition. The performance of Jospin in government, abandoning traditional views, discredited the Socialists, however, and his failure to address the electoral issue of law and order led to a spectacular defeat at the hands of Chirac and the ultra-Right Jean-Marie Le Pen, which forced the broad Left to support the Gaullist Chirac in the second round of the presidential election. Other Left candidates polled poorly, the Communist leader Robert Hue gaining a miserable 3.37 per cent, worse than two Trotskyite candidates, and losing his electoral expenses. In the parliamentary elections of June, the Left emerged as highly fragmented and in turmoil, desperately in need of a new coalition, but lacking a credible leader to forge such a united political force around an appealing platform.

Who are the Women? Where are the Women? And What Difference Can They Make? Effects of Gender Parity in French Municipal Elections

In June 2000, France passed a new law requiring ‘parity’ — an equal number of male and female candidates — for most elections. The law was applied to municipal elections in March 2001, Senate elections in September 2001, and legislative elections in June 2002. This article describes the sources of resistance to parity, and its eventual passage into law, before examining the effectiveness of the law in terms of women's place in politics. It focuses on local elections, where the parity law has had the greatest impact. Using an original sample survey of candidates, it examines the characteristics of the women and men who ran for office under parity. Despite achieving virtually identical levels of representation in local councils in France, this research points to lingering marginalization of women to lower and traditionally ‘feminine’ areas of political responsibility. And while there are some important demographic differences between the men and women who ran for local election under parity rules, the findings show that female candidates were at least as likely as male candidates to be recruited from among local elites. Nevertheless, female and male candidates appear to hold a distinctive set of perspectives on politics, suggesting that parity holds some promise for democratic renewal and policy change, at least at the local level. A key factor shaping women's distinctive political perspectives is the priority they place on family responsibilities. Women's previous exclusion from the public sphere, as well as their hesitancy to make a career out of politics, may explain their higher level of support for greater socio-cultural diversification among political actors.

Presidentialism Restored: The French Elections of April-May and June 2002

Presidentialism Restored: The French Elections of April-May and June 2002

Het uiteenvallen van de Volksunie en het ontstaan van de N-VA en Spirit : Een chronologisch en morfologisch overzicht (juni 1999 - juli 2002)

At the Belgian parliamentary elections in June 1999, the Flemish nationalist party 'Volksunie' (VU) which formed an alliance with the social-liberal ID21 progressed slightly. On July 10, 1999, the party decided to participate in the purple-green-yellow Flemish government, but at the same time they decided to stay out of the federal Belgian government. Two years later, the VU-Party Bureau decided that due to deep divisions within the party it had become impossible for the party to continue. The 15.000 party members were asked to judge about the future of the party. Because no party project managed to obtain a 50 %-majority in the party member referendum, the VU dissappeared. Two new parties - the 'Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie' (N-VA) and 'Spirit' - emerged from the ruins of the VU. The collapse of the VU can be seen as the most far-reaching change in the Flemish party political context of the last decade. This article focusses on the last two and a half years of the VU and on the first year of the N-VA and Spirit (from June 1999 until July 2002). In a first part, achronological overview is build up. This part provides an overview «from day to day» of the events that played a role in the collapse of the VU and the creation of the N-VA and Spirit. The second part of the article draws amore morphological picture of the VU, the N-VA and Spirit: data are presented about the internal organisation of these parties (info about party meetings, the composition and competences of the leading party structures, internal elections, party mandates, the party employees and numbers of party members). By offering an extensive overview of facts and figures, it is the intention of the authors to provide a solid guidelinefor further investigation.