Elections In Germany Research Articles

Explaining Deviant Voting in Subnational Elections: The Case of Local Council Elections in Germany

Elections in multi-level systems are challenging for voters because they are supposed to hold political representatives accountable in a complex system of responsibilities. Therefore, when casting their votes in elections at different levels of government, level-specific factors should be of relevance for voters when making voting decisions. We compare deviant voting behaviour in two specific types of local democracy, namely those where institutional and political factors cluster differently. While local candidate-oriented democracies are characterised by candidate-centred voting systems and local party systems with low degrees of nationalisation, local party-oriented democracies are characterised by closed list systems and local party systems that show high degrees of nationalisation. Using individual and aggregate data on local elections in Germany from 2014, we show that voters in local candidate-oriented democracies seem to be more affected by local factors when casting their votes. However, we also show that our results depend on the respective measurement strategies for deviant voting, as local vote intention in free list systems may be measured in alternative ways. The paper makes a significant contribution to the understanding of deviant and local voting behaviour in multi-level democracies with different voting systems.

The political fallout of air pollution

This paper studies the effect of air pollution on voting outcomes. We use data from 60 federal and state elections in Germany from 2000 to 2018 and exploit plausibly exogenous fluctuations in ambient air pollution within counties across election dates. Higher air pollution on election day shifts votes away from incumbent parties and toward opposition parties. An increase in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) by 10 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]-around two within-county SDs-reduces the vote share of incumbent parties by two percentage points, which is equivalent to 4% of the mean vote share. We generalize these findings by documenting similar effects with data from a weekly opinion poll and a large-scale panel survey. We provide further evidence that poor air quality leads to more negative emotions such as anger, worry, and unhappiness, which, in turn, may reduce the support for the political status quo. Overall, these results suggest that poor air quality affects decision-making in the population at large, including consequential political decisions.

Activating effects of elections: changes in young voters’ political engagement over the course of an election year

Although the effects of elections and measures of direct democracy on policy outcomes have been well researched, their indirect “educative value” has received less attention, particularly in relation to political engagement of young people. This study examined the activating effect of the national elections in Germany (2009), Czech Republic (2010), and Sweden (2014) on young voters’ political engagement. Young voters (Germany: N = 388; Czech Republic: N = 196, and Sweden: N = 246) were surveyed several months before (T1), shortly after (T2), and several months after (T3) the respective national elections. For all three countries, the results revealed significant increases in political engagement during the election period, followed by significant declines after the election. The post-election declines were smaller compared to the election increases, suggesting a persistence of elections’ activating effects. With the exception of German young adults who were less engaged or first-time voters and showed higher increases in engagement during the election period, there were few interindividual differences. The findings suggest that major political events such as national elections can have activating effects on youth’s political engagement. They support the idea of the socializing value of election participation and of late adolescence and young adulthood as a window of opportunity for reaching young voters during politicized times.

Anti-immigration party success abroad and voter polarization at home

If anti-immigration parties perform well in national elections, the media also in other countries will cover their success. This initiates a process of cross-national influence, which we argue polarizes public opinion abroad. This article examines the case of migration attitudes and how they are shaped by national election outcomes in other countries. We analyze data from the European Social Survey (ESS), and individual-level data from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) in the context of the 2017 federal election in Germany. The combined findings from these analyses support our argument: citizens' polarization in one country is influenced by foreign anti-immigration parties’ electoral success. Our research holds direct implications for the understanding of public attitudes toward migration, how public opinion is formed, political polarization, and cross-country political diffusion processes.

Better safe than sorry? Digital campaigning governance in Germany

ABSTRACT How political speech is regulated has changed, with online spaces presenting new challenges. Private platforms now play a significant role in providing spaces for political speech with their own rules and algorithms. This paper examines the current state of legal regulation for political speech, both online and offline, and identifies gaps in governance. As we navigate the ever-evolving landscape of online political speech, it is essential to consider the changing and stricter rules that are being put in place. Private actors have played a crucial role in providing space for this speech. It is worth examining the similarities and differences between offline and online political speech and advertising regulation to ensure everyone's voices are heard and respected. Analyzing applicable public and private law, we investigate how different compliance pulls from national and EU law (existing and upcoming) influence the commitments made by the parties, using the most recent federal elections in Germany as an example. Thus, we assess the German legislative framework, which is also influenced by EU legislation. These investigations reflect new European rules, including the Digital Services Act. After analyzing how parties engage with national law and (self-regulatory) commitments, the paper provides suggestions for improving online speech governance.

Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls?

AbstractPublic opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real‐world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion‐poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.

The value of a party: Local politics and the allocation of intergovernmental transfers

This paper investigates how party connections affect the ability of local politicians to obtain central government funds for their municipality. Using a novel data set for mayoral elections in Germany spanning 2322 municipalities in eight states in the years 2000 to 2008 and regression discontinuity design, I find that party alignment between a local mayor and the state government increases transfers to a municipality by 20% per year. Such favoritism has been interpreted as a sign of partisanship and blamed on central governments which use public funds for partisan purposes. I show that local political conditions, such as reelection incentives and information transmission can partly account for the alignment effect. Taken together, the results provide alternative channels for the interpretation of alignment effects.

Strategic Alignment in Times of Crisis: Voting at the Dawn of a Global Pandemic

Natural disasters are likely to increase in the near future. How does the emergence of such events influence voting behavior? While the literature has focused on the electoral repercussions after disaster has already struck, we investigate whether imminent disaster influences vote choice. We study the effect of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on electoral choice in a setting that allows for causal identification: the local elections in Germany’s southern state Bavaria in March 2020, where, at the time of the elections, only an as-if random sample of localities had recorded cases of COVID-19. We find that initial local outbreaks favored the political party governing at the state level and hurt the far right. These findings are most likely driven by a ‘strategic alignment’ mechanism, whereby voters choose the party or candidate they believe is best placed to help them through the crisis.

All You Need is Love? An analysis of the election campaign of the Green Party in 2021 on Facebook.

The 2021 federal election in Germany was very different from previous elections. For the first time, the environmental party, The Greens, ran a candidate for chancellor. In addition, the election campaign was increasingly digital due to the Corona pandemic. Citizens increasingly turned to the internet for information. In this context, Facebook was the most used social network for reading, sharing, and discussing political news. This paper examines the Green Party's use of Facebook during the election campaign to identify characteristics of their communication behaviour and user reactions. The empirical investigation is carried out by means of a qualitative content analysis according to Mayring. In the period from 01/04 to 26/09/2021 a total of 251 posts of the Green Party were analysed. The tool Fanpage Karma was used for this purpose. Based on the number of posts, relevant topics of the online election campaign were identified. We also looked at how often and with which reactions users responded to the party's posts. The results of the study show that the 2021 chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock plays a prominent role. She is mentioned in 30.68% of all posts. In addition, environmental policy, the party's core issue, takes up a comparatively large amount of space with a total of 111 posts (44.22%). Of these, 39.84% deal with climate-related issues. The results of the analysis also show that the party has a broader range of topics. Social issues are mentioned in 38.65% of the posts and the image of being a ‘single-issue party’ is being shed to some extent. It can also be seen that The Greens, who are among the winners of the 2021 election, publish a comparatively low number of posts. At the same time, they receive the second-most ‘Love’ reactions, and the most ‘Loves’ per post. The study shows Facebook's status in the online election campaign of the German environmental party in the 2021 federal election. It provides information about the scope of use and topic setting on the social platform. At the same time, the results show to what extent and with what reactions the posts have been addressed.

All (electoral) politics is local? Candidate's regional roots and vote choice

ABSTRACT Many authors argue that candidates are more popular among voters from their own region. Two potential explanations have been suggested: voters’ identification with their home region, and the representation of regional interests. The information on candidates’ residence can be transmitted to voters in different ways, the most easily accessible way being information printed on the ballot paper. However, most studies on “friends and neighbour voting” use aggregate data. Studies that rely on individual level data usually put respondents in hypothetical situations and confront them with synthetic candidates, reducing their realism. To bridge this gap and to test the effect of providing information on the candidates’ residence, we use data from a survey experiment to analyze voters’ responses to ballot paper information on the regional background of real candidates in the 2014 European election in Germany. We find that voters in an open list PR election are more likely to support regional candidates if ballot paper information on the candidates’ geographic background helps them to do so. The appeal of personal ties is a stronger explanation for vote preference than the one based on regional interests.

Are European Elections Second‐Order Elections for Everyone?

AbstractSecond‐order election (SOE) theory has been used to explain voting behaviour in European elections. Voters believe that less is at stake in some elections and some voters hence tend to cast a protest vote. However, most studies on the topic have focused on the demand side of SOEs – i.e. on the voters – and have ignored or only partially tackled the supply side – i.e. the strategic behaviour of parties – and excluded small and marginal parties (SMPs). However, SMPs may have greater incentive to seriously compete in SOEs. The 2019 European Parliament elections in Germany were particularly interesting to SMPs as there was no voting threshold, thereby increasing the chances of SMPs. To capture whether SMPs view European elections as first‐order elections and therefore expend more resources than parliamentary parties on these elections, I analysed campaign expenditures and manifestos. Results indicate that SMPs act within a rational actor framework, though not unequivocally.

There is no capitalist conspiracy and the rich are not all‐powerful

There is no capitalist conspiracy and the rich are not all‐powerful

Alte Gesichter, neue Chancen? Wechsel im Ministerpräsidentenamt nach und zwischen Landtagswahlen (1950 bis 2022)

Can sitting Minister-Presidents rely on an incumbency advantage in German state parliament elections despite the indirect nature of their election? Changes in the office of the Minister-President after (and between) state parliament elections in Germany from 1950 to 2022 show: the importance of state parliaments and their parliamentary party groups should not be underestimated . More new Minister-Presidents were elected during an electoral term than after state parliament elections . Concerning elections to the offices during terms, four different resignation reasons could be identified: successions were successful, in particular, after resignations out of personal reasons . Moreover, it is possible to confirm an indirect incumbency bonus: parties of sitting Minister-Presidents who had served a whole term lost on average less shares of votes than parties of incumbents that had been in office for less than one term . In addition, there has been an increase of incumbent losses since 1990 . Parties of incumbent Minister-Presidents lost more share of votes between 1991 and 2022 than in the time until 1990; this trend is in particular observable again for incumbents that had been in office less than one term .

Mehr Demokratie wagen! Eine politikwissenschaftliche Replik auf die juristische Einschätzung zur Absenkung der Altersgrenze für das aktive Wahlrecht zum Deutschen Bundestag

This article examines the debate surrounding the proposed lowering of the voting age from eighteen to sixteen for German Bundestag elections, from a political science perspective . The author carefully considers and counters the arguments raised by Lukas Sairinger in ZParl 2/2022, specifically with regards to concerns about the dignity of the elected institution and the political maturity of younger voters . By presenting empirical evidence from subnational elections in Germany and national elections in Austria and Scotland, the article provides a compelling case for the potential positive impact that a lower voting age could have on youth political engagement and the democratic process . However, problems arising from the current federal heterogeneity also become apparent, which is why there is a call for standardization . Finally, lowering the voting age should be accompanied by programs in the field of political education to counter socio-economic differences in political participation .

Die niedersächsische Landtagswahl vom 9. Oktober 2022: Eine Wahl im Zeichen der Energiekrise und des Konflikts um die Atomkraft

The state election in Lower Saxony on October 9, 2022, was the first election in Germany following the termination of Russian gas supplies to Western Europe . The election campaign was therefore dominated by the energy crisis and the associated conflict over the continued use of German nuclear power plants . Issues of Lower Saxony’s state politics, on the other hand, hardly played a role . The election was won by the SPD, which maintained its position as the strongest party in the Lower Saxony state parliament with slight losses . This was due not least to the high popularity of incumbent Minister President Stephan Weil, whom voters trusted to lead the state through the crisis . The CDU lost a massive number of votes and achieved its worst election result in Lower Saxony since 1955 . The Greens, on the other hand, made significant gains and achieved their best result in Lower Saxony since the party was founded . The AfD also improved significantly, while the FDP dropped out of the state parliament . After the two parties that had previously governed in a grand coalition, the SPD and CDU, had announced already before the election that they did not intend to continue their cooperation, a red-green state government was formed after the election .

May political parties refuse to govern? On integrity, compromise and responsibility

ABSTRACT After the parliamentary elections in Germany in September 2017, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), The Greens (Bündnis90/Die Grünen) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) started to negotiate about forming a coalition government. But, surprising to many, the FDP decided to let these coalition talks collapse, and many commentators in Germany found it highly problematic for a political party to refuse to take responsibility in government. Interestingly, the question whether (or: when) democratic parties may legitimately refuse to govern has so far been neglected in political theory and political philosophy. The article develops a general answer by discussing several possible reasons for thinking that it is sometimes wrong to refuse to govern and thereby engages both democratic theory and the recent literature on compromise. The resulting view is that parties have an ‘integrity prerogative’ that allows them to refuse to govern, except when there is no reasonable and stable alternative government coalition available.

Micromotives of Vote Switchers and Macrotransitions: The Case of the Immigration Issue in a Regional Earthquake Election in Germany 2018

Which issue-related motives underlie voters’ decision to switch parties at the polls? Do switchers stick to the newly chosen party, or do they oscillate in a short-term way at intermediate elections? Relying on the behavioral theory of elections, we assumed aspiration-based voting of boundedly rational voters. We elicited issue-related switch and stay motives in an open-ended survey question format to identify the individual dominant aspirational frame. We traced the respondents’ voting trajectories over three consecutive elections, including two state (2013 and 2018) elections in Bavaria (Germany) and one German federal election (2017). We focused on one of the most polarizing and salient issues in these elections, namely immigration. The case of reference is the 2018 Bavarian state election. Here, the incumbent majoritarian center-right party Christian Social Union tried to deter the entry of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany by adapting to it on the immigration issue in tone and position. The selected case allows assessment of the impact of issue-based adaptive behavior of the incumbent party at the level of the voters’ switch or stay choices. We estimated the direction and number of voter flows for two interelection sequences of different lengths between different types of polls (federal and state). Our transition estimates are based on the hybrid multinomial Dirichlet model, a new technique integrating individual-level survey data and official aggregate data. Our estimates uncover substantial behavioral differences in the immigration issue public.

Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany

This paper investigates the effects of local exposure to refugees on electoral outcomes in the 2016 state election in Germany. Based on quasi-random variation in the allocation of refugees across municipalities and unique data on refugee populations and their type of accommodation, I find that an increase in the population share of refugees increases the vote share of right-wing parties and decreases the vote share of the incumbent federal government parties. The electoral effects, however, are rather small and solely driven by refugees living in centralized accommodation, while no such effects are found for refugees living in decentralized accommodation.

Improving the Explanation of Electoral Behavior Through a Combination of Historical and Local Context – The Case of the AfD’s Results at the Federal Election in Germany in 2017

Abstract The purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which an approach that takes into account the historical and spatial context of an election can contribute to a better understanding of electoral dynamics in general. It applies this approach to the analysis of the results of the populist radical right party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) at the 2017 federal election in Germany. Making use of a newly compiled dataset at the municipality level in Germany, local context will first be included in a direct way, measured by distances from the municipalities to relevant geographical markers that can be associated with a long-term or a short-term historical legacy. These spatial points include former Nazi concentration camps (main camps as well as relevant sub-camps) in order to test for the long-term legacy, first reception facilities for refugees during the so-called “refugee crisis” (2015–16) as markers of one of the most incisive developments of the recent past in Germany. Additionally, the distance to the Eastern border is tested, as this variable has proven to be relevant in the context of earlier studies on the AfD. Second, actively modeling spatial non-stationarity using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) in an exploratory manner shows that most effects on the strength of the AfD at the municipality level (from modernization loser theory to the contact hypothesis) vary significantly and considerably in terms of strength throughout Germany.

Landtag elections in Germany as an indicator of federal party and political trends

In March and May 2022, landtag elections were held in western German states of Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, with results largely reflecting the developments at federal level: growing popularity of Union 90/Die Grünen, ongoing rivalry between SPD and CDU, FDP's fight for seats in regional parliaments and continuation of crisis processes in „Left“ and „Alternative for Germany“ parties. For the first time in election campaign of the two states, foreign policy played an important role, namely the factor of Ukraine. The author analyzes results of the elections and assesses their impact on federal party and political processes in Germany.