Electoral Victory Research Articles

“Feeling like” upholding conservative politics: The material and affective dimensions of women's support for AKP

Through progressive and regressive periods, during electoral victories or unexpected losses, Turkish women's support for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been critical. The appeal of conservative patriarchal politics for women have been largely overlooked but they support the ruling party not only by showing up at the ballot box but also by active engagement and volunteerism. This article investigates how women explain their support for a government that undermines their rights and freedoms. Looking at the emotional pathways that result in attachment to the party, I argue that women's compliance with and support for the AKP regime cannot be understood solely as typical vote buying or a bargain. Instead, following Sara Ahmed's conceptualization of emotions as the “sticky” element of women's relationship with the regime, I complement the material dimensions of support with emotions. I explore the idea that support for the regime is rooted in material and affective realms which emerges through three emotional pathways: gratitude for recognition and redistribution, altruistic and egoistic senses of pride, and denial of resentment toward the party. I conclude that hegemonic success is not only a political and cognitive achievement but also an affective one, a necessary distinction in discussions of feminisms.

“Tetranstornation” as retrogression: AMLO’s Mexico beyond alternation

AbstractIn response to the landslide electoral victory by the morena-led coalition in Mexico, I offer a two-part argument for its interpretation. Like bifocal glasses, the seventy-one-year State Party rule offers a far-sighted panorama to question the “transition towards democracy” in Mexico. Against this backdrop, a more detailed focus follows the development of the political leader who slayed the party system for the alternation of power. Together, they present an analytical description of the retrogression within a “post-neoliberal” turn.

In defence of democracy: parliamentary opposition and democratic resilience in Poland

ABSTRACT The 2023 electoral victory of Poland's liberal opposition halted democratic backsliding and exemplified democratic resilience. This study provides a novel empirical analysis of discursive strategies used by the main opposition party, Civic Platform/Civic Coalition, in parliamentary speeches on democracy from 2001 to 2020. Using a mixed-method approach with temporally sensitive word embeddings and discourse analysis, we highlight shifts in opposition discourse since 2015 – from radicalisation to a more moderate, focused response addressing key aspects of democratic breakdown – demonstrating an adaptive strategy of democratic resilience.

Cuba and Chile: Revolutionary Dialogues for Latin America

This article analyses the structural challenges of the Latin American revolution in the early 1970s, which echoed from Fidel Castro’s extensive road trip around Chile during the Salvador Allende administration in November 1971. Castro’s presence promoted massive mobilizations of Chilean workers and peasants who came in droves to listen to his speeches. By then, an interesting dialogue between the Cuban and Chilean revolutionary paths had developed on a mass-collective basis, considering the dialogical skills of both leaders, Castro and Allende, who participated together in many mass demonstrations during the 24 days that the Cuban leader spent in Chile. While Cuba experienced an insurrection and guerrilla war, Chile was promoting a “peaceful road to socialism” through electoral victories. This article investigates the relations between the two revolutionary processes through the dialogues during this visit. This article is based on press materials from those days, Castro’s and Allende’s speeches and other primary sources. It concludes that the Cuban and Chilean Revolutions were more complementary than antagonistic, contrary to the historiography that emphasizes rivalry between them.

Coattailing for Regime Continuity?: Unraveling Duterte's Legacy in Marcos Jr.'s 2022 Electoral Victory

Coattailing for Regime Continuity?: Unraveling Duterte's Legacy in Marcos Jr.'s 2022 Electoral Victory

The Rise of India's Second Republic

Abstract: At first glance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s narrow 2024 general election victory—a win only made possible thanks to the cooperation of alliance partners—suggests a return to a previous era of coalition government in India. While the ruling party may be weakened, the nature of the political order has fundamentally shifted in ways that will have a lasting impact on Indian democracy. India is witnessing the dawn of a "Second Republic," an inflection point that is equal in magnitude to the constitutional moment in 1950, when India's "First Republic" was established. Several elements of the Second Republic were visible prior to these elections, and the BJP's narrow victory has not dislodged them. The nature of electoral democracy, liberal constitutionalism, national identity, secularism, and federalism have all undergone significant transformations. Yet, true to India's nature, its new political settlement cannot be readily captured using simple binary distinctions.

Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders.

The rich literature on election trust predominantly uses domestic determinants as explanatory factors. But given the international nature of the autocratization wave, can an autocratization event across borders erode election trust? This article argues that an authoritarian's electoral success in a neighboring country can shatter democratic norms and demonstrate the viability of authoritarians. This autocratization event abroad can thus reduce citizens' principled support for democracy and its political system. Consequently, citizens across borders are less likely to see democratic elections as the "only game in town" and they have less trust in elections. To test this idea, I study the spillover effects of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, in which an authoritarian candidate won decisively. Using the AmericasBarometer in Colombia that was launched throughout this election, I find that the election trust of Colombian citizens erodes after Jair Bolsonaro's electoral success. To probe into the mechanism, I uncover that his electoral victory leads Colombian citizens to be less supportive of the domestic political system and reduces their principled support for democracy. The causal mediation analysis demonstrates that these two variables mediate the effect of the authoritarian's electoral success on election trust. These findings on autocratization spillover effects illustrate the importance of external autocratization events in the study of election trust.

Analyzing election trends incorporating memory effect through a fractional-order mathematical modeling

This study proposes a new mathematical model to analyze and predict the results of a political election. In general, we predict or analyze the results using statistical methods; however, to minimize the effort of the study, we propose a fractional-order modeling approach. This study proposes a model to analyze and predict general election result trends in India, focusing on the state of West Bengal. To incorporate memory into the model, we consider the Caputo fractional derivative. The model solution’s positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness were tested analytically. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the impact of the parameters and evaluate the model’s performance by incorporating the implications of the previous election for realistic situations. Following this, a qualitative analysis of the performance of political parties is discussed, and a prediction of the electoral victory is obtained.

WINNING PEOPLE, WINNING LEADER

In this article, written on the occasion of his great victory in the presidential elections, readers are introduced to the achievements and valuable ideas of Mr. Ilham Aliyev. First of all, some points from the interview of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan to local TV channels on January 10, 2024; later, the statements he made at the swearing-in ceremony in the Milli Majlis on February 14, 2024 are recalled. It is considered appropriate that the younger generation can benefit from these ideas.

The Netherlands: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThe Dutch political landscape is notoriously unpredictable; yet, 2023 was the most turbulent year in Dutch politics in at least two decades. The year featured two elections—provincial and national—within nine months, each dominated by two distinct issues: agriculture and migration. These elections saw two different populist parties triumph with significant margins: the FarmerCitizenMovement/BoerBurgerBeweging won the provincial elections, while the radical right‐wing populist Party for Freedom/Partij voor de Vrijheid secured a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections. Moreover, the year witnessed the collapse of the centre‐right cabinet and leadership changes in more than half of the parties represented in parliament.

The Legacy of President Lázaro Cárdenas for Health Care Reform in Today's Mexico.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's historic election victory in 2018 marked a sharp break from past decades of neoliberal socioeconomic policies. López Obrador campaigned on the promise of deep reform, with health care high on his agenda. The public health care sector had been decimated by decades of budget cuts, eroding workers' morale and patients' confidence, and crippling all aspects of the system. This article looks back to the creation of the nation's public health care system in the early twentieth century during the administration of President Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-1940). This "universal" system was designed to implement a central social justice goal of the Mexican Revolution of health care for all. The program rested on two pillars: providing care to the nation's vast, impoverished rural population and actively engaging communities in their own health care. Our objective is to critically assess the two presidents' health care initiatives within the distinct historical contexts of their administrations.

Paradox of optimism: opposition coordination against autocratic incumbents in Turkey’s 2019 and 2023 elections

ABSTRACT In the 2019 local and 2023 general elections, Turkey’s opposition parties joined forces in pursuit of a common objective: to oust autocratic incumbents and democratize the political system. While they achieved noteworthy successes in 2019, replicating these gains in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections proved elusive. This study reveals that coordinating opposition efforts becomes more challenging during general elections, particularly when a charismatic presidential candidate, capable of fostering synergy among opposition factions and voters, is absent. Additionally, when opposition parties span the ideological spectrum, crafting a unified campaign around a shared manifesto becomes more intricate. The resulting atmosphere of uncertainty is exacerbated further in the absence of decisive leadership. Most importantly, the research highlights a paradox: as optimism for electoral victory grows, parties become more inclined to form alliances but less willing to nominate a strong leader, due to concerns about power-sharing overshadowing electoral success. This paradox diminishes the chances of opposition victory.

Thailand in 2023

On the face of it, Thai politics in 2023 was groundbreaking. The event that encapsulated the year was the stunning electoral victory of a radical party, Move Forward. That party was eventually blocked from forming a government by an alliance that included Pheu Thai and the royalist-conservative elite. With Pheu Thai at the head of government, populist policies, most notably the digital wallet scheme, became the centerpiece for economic development. The marriage of convenience between the supposedly reformist Pheu Thai and the conservative forces, as well as the return of economic populism, gave the impression that not much had changed in Thailand. But compared to past years, 2023 was momentous.

India in 2023

In 2023, India experienced another year of strong economic growth; it was the fastest- growing economy in the world. However, as before, this growth was accompanied by growing unemployment and inequality between urban and rural regions. Furthermore, the year was marked yet again by significant declines in the quality of democracy as the parliament was increasingly marginalized, a new law effectively handed control of the Election Commission of India to the incumbent government, and laws and government actions curbed civil liberties and human rights. One major positive development was the passage of a law reserving seats for women in the directly elected national and state assemblies. India successfully hosted its first G20 summit but also dealt with major foreign policy issues, including increasing rivalry with China for regional influence, accusations of assassination attempts by its intelligence agencies in friendly countries, and the ongoing Israel–Palestine conflict. Finally, 2023 saw the BJP claim dominant electoral victories in four out of nine states, putting it in government in 16 of the 28 Indian states.

To fund or defund? – Proposition A in Austin, TX and the urban politics of police funding post George Floyd

After the tragic death of George Floyd, there was a national debate about “defunding” police departments. The debate was especially intense in several cities as mayors, city councils, and - via direct democracy - voters debated the future direction of how police departments operate. Amidst all of this, Proposition A was placed on the ballot in the City of Austin, TX, which intended to increase police funding as the number of murders in the city peaked to near-record highs. This research will provide a spatial and ecological analysis of the vote on Proposition A that occurred in 2021. Using demographic, political, and socio-economic data of the populations in each precinct; this research will explain who was most and least supportive of Proposition A, and examine the spatial dimension of the vote. This research will provide critical insights into the voting behavior and spatial dynamics in urban areas, specifically in Austin, where Proposition A was a rare electoral victory for the “defund” efforts.

Tungkus Asi Sebagai Variasi Lokal Politik Penaungan di Batang Ai Semasa Pilihan Raya Negeri Sarawak 2021

This study explains the role of “tungkus asi” in strengthening the ruling party’s political power during the 2021 Sarawak State Election (SSE21) in Batang Ai. “Tungkus asi” is one of the local variations of patronage politics practised by the Iban at the grassroots level. During the 2016 Sarawak State Election “tungkus asi” played a role in the electoral victory of the candidate from Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS). In the SSE21, “tungkus asi” once again propelled the candidate from GPS to victory and thus strengthening the ruling party’s position in Batang Ai. This article looks at how “tungkus asi” was practised and its influence on the electoral support of the Iban towards the candidates. This article was based on a study conducted in Batang Ai which involved observation and interviews with the voters and “tuai rumah”. The study found that “tungkus asi” continued to play a prominent role in galvanising support from the voters. “Tungkus asi” remains relevant in the modern political era as it has become part and parcel of the political process and election among the Iban at the grassroots level. “Tungkus asi” not only consolidates GPS political power, but its practice also helps researchers and observers alike to understand the politics of patronage within the Iban voters.

MODI ‘Wave’-Leadership Legitimation and Institutionalization in Indian Politics

‘Wave’ is a political phenomenon that leads to a major electoral gain or loss for a political party, an expression of pro or anti-incumbency public mood. ‘MODI-wave’ is an electoral manifestation depicting the hegemonic leadership of Narendra Modi that scripts victories in elections based on political charisma, social legitimacy and cultural nationalism. His critics question the legality of his regime in terms of democratic deficit, incompetent governance and unrepresentative of ‘will of the whole people’. However, the saffron party’s victories in national elections 2014 and 2019 is a reflection of ‘will of the majority’ that institutionalized and routinized Modi wave. ‘There is No Alternative’ to Modi’ is deeply entrenched in minds of voters as they rewarded him with successive leadership renewals and re-legitimations. Modi’s leadership will once again attempt to obtain validation in national elections 2024, but the absence of a competitive adversary strongly augments his chances of getting yet another political mandate, provided there are no ‘election surprises’ in store.

Social Media and the DIY Politics in Thailand's 2023 Election

This article argues that Thailand's 2023 parliamentary election was the first election in which social media played a decisive factor in the electoral outcomes. Prior to this election, social media was an important campaign tool, but it was unclear whether it made a difference in the electoral results. Based on our original post-election survey data (n = 1,249), social media was the most important media in governing vote choice. Social media was a crucial space for activation and conversion—motivating the undecided to become partisans and converting partisan voters to shift their allegiances. Thailand's 2023 election was also marked by a rise in the personalization of political campaigning, wherein citizens felt free to decide how and what their political participation looked like, and parties that encouraged inclusive and open engagement with politics were best poised to win in the electoral arena. Drawing on social network analysis of social media data, this article demonstrates how the Move Forward Party's (MFP) loosely structured and inclusive social media campaigns allowed both their candidates and supporters to mobilize individualized large-scale collective action, in contrast to their rivals who focused on traditional top-down style campaigning. Despite the MFP's winning social media campaigning that produced electoral victories, the party was unable to come to power due to an entrenched authoritarian political system designed to maintain the power of the country's autocratic elites. The Thai case demonstrates powerfully how autocrats might lose an election due to social media, yet still manage to hang on to power through entrenched authoritarian institutions.

Migration Policy in the Era of Trumpism and Media Spectacle: What a 2024 Trump [or other] Presidency Could Mean for Mexico-U.S. Relations

Donald Trump may be the Republican presidential nominee for the 2024 election and is facing multiple indictments for alleged crimes committed during his presidency. If convicted, this would make a Trump election victory unlikely, although he is the master of the media spectacle and populist authoritarianism – essential components of Trumpism. I focus on U.S. migration policy consequences affecting Mexico and other states in the Americas if Trump wins in 2024. With a Republican win, the migration policy could revert back to a Title 42 migrant expulsion scenario, with attempts to harden the border using more personnel, infrastructure, and surveillance technology. President Biden, if reelected, is on a course towards increased militarization of the southwest border that is a long-term bipartisan trend with globalization – accelerated by Trumpism down to the U.S. state level. Analyzing these scenarios, the border securocracy theoretical concept is employed in keeping with Trumpism migration policies.

COMMUNICATION ACCOMMODATION STRATEGIES IN JOE BIDEN’S ELECTION ACCEPTANCE & VICTORY SPEECH

This study is entitled COMMUNICATION ACCOMMODATION STRATEGIES IN JOE BIDEN’S ELECTION ACCEPTANCE & VICTORY SPEECH. The aims is to identify the types of communication accommodation strategy are used by Joe Biden in his election acceptance & victory speech and the reason behind the usage of each strategies based on theory by Giles about Communication Accommodation Theory. The data was taken Joe Biden’s Election Acceptance and Victory Speech. The data was collected by documentation method. In analyzing data, the method applied is qualitative method. The data was presented in in the form of sentence using descriptive method. The results show that there were nine divergence strategies and twelve convergence strategies being used in Joe Biden’s speech. Convergence in Joe Biden’s speech is mainly used when he seek for the approval from his audiences, such as addressing his supporters by each social groups that they’re in, and using certain expressions in delivering his message to relate to the people. Meanwhile, by using divergence, Biden created a situation where people would listen to him mentioning about the achievements, the hardwork, and the pledge that he and the other notable individuals have under their name.