Leadership Election Research Articles

Divisions within the British Parliamentary Labour Party under Keir Starmer: Results of a Cluster Analysis

This paper offers a methodologically innovative two-stage approach for studying divisions amongst parliamentary representatives. Using the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) as our case study, we construct a dataset of all Labour MPs elected in the 2019 general election, along with their nominations in the 2020 Labour Party leadership and deputy leadership elections and their membership of, or affiliation with, various party-aligned organisations. We then conduct a cluster analysis based on this dataset, which reveals the existence of a two-cluster model—comprised of the Mainstream (N = 162) and the Left (N = 33)—and a five-cluster model—in which the Left exists alongside the Tribune Soft Left, the Labour Friends of Palestine and the Middle East Soft Left, the Unaligned Centrists, and the Right. Finally, we test the robustness of our clusters via a canonical correspondence analysis of the language used by MPs on social media (Twitter/X) and their contributions to parliamentary debates (Hansard). We show that the MPs from different clusters do use different languages to one another in both fora. We also find that the main divide within the PLP is between the left of the party and the rest of the party, and that the deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has a broader base of support amongst the PLP than its current leader Keir Starmer.

Beyond general elections: How could foreign actors influence the prime ministership?

Recent reports of election interference ring alarm bells about the vulnerability of the Canadian political process. We examine a different but potentially more perilous loophole in the electoral process beyond general elections to demonstrate how foreign actors could directly influence the prime ministership through the manipulation of party membership. We suggest that foreign actors could influence the selection process of party leadership and, consequently, the prime ministership, simply by purchasing party memberships that distribute ballots in leadership elections without identity verification. After introducing China and Russia's strategies to influence Canadian politics, we offer a few recommendations to address the party membership loophole. These include identity verification at the time of membership registration and ballot mail-in, flagging membership irregularities, additional and dedicated funding to political parties to build robust cybersecurity practices, and creating additional content in languages other than English or French to mitigate the influence of state–controlled or sponsored media on immigrant and diaspora communities.

A MAGYAR FÖLDRAJZI TÁRSASÁG A RENDSZERVÁLTÁS IDEJÉN

The leadership election of the Hungarian Geographical Society in 1989 coincided by chance with a revolutionary change in the Hungarian social system. Changes affecting almost all aspects of the lives of Hungarians did not leave the Society untouched and their significance was so great that they defined almost every part of its activity. The main goal of the leadership in this situation was to adapt to the circumstances, prevent adverse effects, and find new ways of development offered by new opportunities to improve the possibilities offered by other options and to strengthen the unity of the Society in its content and appearance. Fortunately, the majority of the member- ship supported these changes and not only encouraged the presidency to act, but also helped it. The sense of liberty in the social life of Hungary has never greater than it was in this period.

Trusting Truss: Conservative MPs’ Voting Preferences in the (First) British Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2022

ABSTRACT This paper identifies the candidate preferences of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot and the membership ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2022. We code each parliamentarians’ candidate preference within a wider dataset on the parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) and test a range of hypotheses covering the following: a). personal factors relating to gender, sexuality, ethnicity and education b). political factors, relating to constituency marginality and type, as well as prior support for Johnson, and c). ideological factors, covering for example, attitudes towards Brexit, cultural debates, levelling up, economic liberalism, net zero and Covid restrictions. Our research findings demonstrate that despite common media narratives at the time of the party leadership election, variables capturing loyalty or opposition to Johnson did not structure patterns of support for candidates in either round. A parliamentarian's position on levelling up, as well as the UK's membership of, and relationship with, the European Union (based on whether they were remainers, leavers, or a member of the European Research Group) were more important in structuring support. However broader measures of ideology, as evidenced through the membership of extra-parliamentary groups, was found not to be important.

The Politicization of Religion and Polarization of Hate in the 2018 North Sumatra Regional Head Election Indonesia

The election of leadership in Islam is synonymous with choosing a leader of the faith. This condition gave rise to the practice of politicizing religion to gain popular support. The narrative of electing leaders of the same faith is a mounting issue. As a result, it creates a polarization of hatred based on differences in support, was the case in the Regional Head Election in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. Consolidation of democracy at the local level led to polarization of hatred based on religious issues among voters when elections were held. This polarization of hatred based on religious issues can cause segregation and provoke social conflict. The study was conducted through a qualitative approach, a relevant literature search, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The research findings show the amplification of religious issues in the 2018 North Sumatra Regional Head Election, primarily through the intermediary role of religious leaders and elite political ‘shops’ who are closely synonymous with Islam. The background beliefs of different actors, and the strengthening the politicization of religion is one of the advantages of one of the actors. Moreover, religious leaders can mobilize support through religious activities that may cause serious polarization. Hate polarization may occur among supporters of each candidate due to the growing issue of religion, especially the issue of "religious blasphemy", which is associated with one of the candidate pairs. The role of Islamic community organizations and the movement of actors' closeness to Muslims, strengthen the polarization. It is vital to strengthen and embrace all by using religious figures to reduce the impact of conflict on regional head elections towards a happy and diverse community where respect and tolerance abound.

"Soft power", "color revolution" and "hybrid war": public diplomacy vs political technology

"Color revolutions" are a form of "hybrid war" unleashed by the global hegemon against uncontrolled states in order to maintain its dominance in the world. Today they are becoming the main destabilizing factor both for a single nation and for the system of international relations as a whole. A comparative analysis of the "color revolutions" since the collapse of the USSR allows us to conclude that the theses spread by Western propaganda about the positive impact of the "soft power" on the "progress of democracy" are unfounded. Despite the presence of real socio-economic diffi culties and the so-called "protest potential” in the impacted countries "color revolutions" are primarily staged and controlled from abroad. As a rule, the main object of infl uence in the preparation of "color revolutions" are traditional family values, historical memory and the country's top political leadership as a guarantor of national sovereignty. The key actors of color revolutions are foreign-funded NGOs and the media which broadcast values and meanings alien to national self-consciousness into the information space and also “heat up” protest relations in the society. The point of application to seize control within the "color revolution" is the election of the country's national leadership or referendums on socially signifi cant issues. Accordingly, the most crucial task of sovereign states is to protect the electoral process from external interference, the spread of false information about elections and their discredit. An important factor in protecting the electoral rights of citizens and legitimizing state power is public observation of voting. Tools and resources of “soft power” are underestimated and poorly used by the post-Soviet states to defend national interests, protect the sovereign choice of the people and counteract attempts of external interference into domestic political processes. Promising directions for expanding infl uence on international relations are concentrated in the information, communication and political fi eld of the Internet which is still a territory of relative legal “freedom”. Among the main areas of protection "information sovereignty" are the following: expansion of Russian jurisdiction to representative offi ces of foreign IT platforms operating within the Russian Federation, development of media literacy and critical thinking of citizens, the need for constant refutation of "fakes", introduction of special programs that can recognize them and determine their distributors, prohibition of anonymity in social media, increasing legal liability for the production and distribution of "fakes".

Sour Grapes? Party Donors and Canadian Leadership Primaries

AbstractPolitical parties around the world are adopting primaries to select leaders and legislative candidates. While a large, though inconclusive, literature has emerged in the American context to explore the consequences of primaries, little attention has been devoted to other national contexts. Exploring patterns of financial donation, this study examines whether individuals who supported a losing leadership candidate are less likely to exhibit subsequent financial commitment to the party compared to those donors whose preferred candidate won the internal election. Drawing upon a novel dataset that includes tens of thousands of donors to recent leadership elections in Canada, we demonstrate that intra-party winners (i.e. those who supported the winning leadership candidate) are more likely to be financially committed to the party in the year after the election than those who supported losers. Results suggest that open and inclusive elections, while participatory in nature, may come at a cost for political parties as losers withdraw from the party in the wake of their loss.

Selecting Sunak: Conservative MPs’ Nomination Preferences in the (Second) British Conservative Party Leadership Election

Abstract This article utilises an original dataset covering all members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to analyse the basis of support for Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt in the October 2022 British Conservative Party leadership election. The significance of our findings is that they form the basis for a new understanding of how conservatism in the UK is changing post-Brexit. Our political variables include constituency majority size, red wall status, constituency support for leave, an MP’s position in the June 2022 vote of confidence in Johnson’s leadership of the Conservative Party, ministerial status and rebellion rates on key legislation. Our ideological variables include EU referendum position and membership of the European Research Group and the Conservative Environment Network, along with whether MPs are classed as socially liberal, socially conservative or pro-levelling up. We find that candidates appealed to different, often rival, sections of the Conservative Party. In line with previous studies of this nature, social liberalism still represents a key dividing line within the party, and the European dimension of intra-party conflict has remained significant in light of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

The Nexus between Population Structure, Debt Ratio, Unemployment, and Leadership Election in Aging Countries

For the past decades, aging of population has been a growing concern for many countries, imposing downward pressure on consumption, production, and population growth. Meanwhile, voters in aging countries, influenced by socioeconomic conditions like higher age dependency ratio, rising unemployment rate, constant inflow of immigration and lower fertility rate, might have specific preferences for the corresponding policy targets purposed by the leadership election candidates and might further affect the economic and immigration policies implemented by the new governments after elections. With the investigation of how the preferences of the voters for economic and immigration policies, sharped by the socioeconomic conditions, affect the implementation of the corresponding policies after leadership elections, candidates of these elections might be capable of gaining more support from voters by modifying their election platform, accordingly. In this study, three multinomial logistic models are conducted with government expenditure, taxation, and immigration policies set as dummy dependent variables, separately. And the results imply that, in aging countries, a high level of unemployment tends to induce the new governments to impose more stringent immigration policy and reduce taxation, while the possibility of a decrease of government expenditure would be higher. However, for countries with higher population growth, the new governments would be more likely to implement a tax increase.

Synchronous in Merdeka Belajar Based Education Management Quality (EMQ

Educational accreditation qualifications in schools are the substantial part of education synchronous management. Synchronous management in the education unit can be based on the situation or condition of education at a certain period. This article aims to study of policy quality as the foundation of education in Indonesian’s policy quality by using the qualitative approach throught extensive literature, interviewing experts and personal experience. The situation or condition can be seen from the formation of policies and or the election of new leadership. 1) Merdeka Belajar is integrity and the result of policy, and there may be influence from the political elite as a means of fulfilling these situations and conditions. 2) In the management of basic, middle, upper and higher education units it is known as independent learning. 3) Freedom to learn is a reflection of the government in Era 4.0, which requires students to understand freedom as the actualization of human identity as a real human being, and not only freely expressing attitudes, thoughts, feelings and actions, but also free in accepting learning from all aspects of knowledge. 4) The actualization of Merdeka Belajarshould be based on student-centred learning, students as problem solvers, critical thingking, and decision maker.
 Keywords: Merdeka Belajar; EMQ; education management quality

Not on the agenda: investigatory notes on the institutionalised marginalisation of Arabs within the Israeli Social Workers’ Union

This study reveals tensions between Jews and Arabs in the Israeli Social Workers’ Union, examining the characteristics, experiences and functioning of the Arab minority representatives over the years until the recent election of a new radical socialist-feminist leadership. Data were elicited from semi-structured in-depth interviews with Arab delegates to the union. It was found that the policies of the union’s institutions discriminate against Arab social workers in three dimensions: (1) under-representation in all its organs, including participation in paid staff in the headquarters and district offices; (2) lack of attention to Arab workers’ voice in the union’s published platforms; and (3) lack of consideration of Arab social workers’ unique needs in programmes more appropriate for Jews. The union fails in its role as the formal and exclusive representative of Arab social workers, who suffer from discriminatory government consideration, including unequal budgeting, lack of recognition and lack of participation in decision making.

Pre-Election Violence a Case Study of Somalia.

Somalia had experienced many crises as a result of power struggles and leadership elections amongst others that was one of the most challenging things that caused the Horn of Africa backwardness was due to election violence even though election violence was not a new thing because most of their African colleague’s countries such as Uganda, Ghana, Ethiopia, Nigeria and so on had experienced same phenomena. however, Somalia’s election violence was the main focus of this research that was being investigated the objective of this study was to examine the theoretical and practical aspects of the election and elaborate on the history of their election violence and their political system, and the causes of their pre-election violence and the possible way forward to prevent pre-election in post-conflict nations which was Somalia amongst others. The study used a historical approach, mainly focused on past events, and came to conclusions that predicate what would happen in the future. The study’s objectives were in line with the data from various sources used books, journals, papers, studies, policy documents, and other sources were used to acquire the data. The study used a case study approach to evaluate pre-election violence in the post-conflict nation. researchers reported that pre-election violence and competitiveness are inseparable, especially in most African countries ( Kanyinga, 2009). that study also adopted a historical approach design method that will look into past events and conclusions that preempted future events. Most of the findings of those studies included clans and subclans fighting for political power in Somalia clans fighting for political power in Somalia. Somalia’s election crisis started in 1960 after its independence. Some of the causes of pre-election violence included disagreement between parties, corruption, bribery of electoral officials, and so on. That study concluded that pre-election violence had demoralized the democratic system of Somalia. Those who had perceived malpractice of the election violence were less likely to support it, which was in contrast to those who perceived the integrity of the elections. The study recommended that the government of Somalia conducted a free and fair election within a framework of laws that guaranteed that effective exercise of voting rights and the Somalia authorities ensured that independence was credible and impartial investigations waspromptly conducted into all attacks and acts of physical intimidation amongst others. The study had been carried out to fill the lacuna in the aspect of election violence research being conducted by prolific researchers to widen the horizon of knowledge creation of humans and other creatures. As a result, analysis done by the research on corruption and bribery of electoral officials, hiring of individuals to cause harm and unrest on election day, and others included among the findings found in this research. These findings were supported by other researchers like Norris (2014), the system is linked to perceived electoral integrity. On the other hand, election fraud is found to be the main cause of pre-election violence in Somalia. The study proposes that the causes and effects of the electoral crisis in Somalia be investigated to reduce it completely. Also, the electoral violence and its challenges to democracy and governance in Somalia should be investigated.

Those who Wear the Crown Wield the Knife: the Brutality of Recent Takeover Reshuffles

AbstractRecent ‘takeover’ Prime Ministers have tended to conduct relatively brutal Cabinet reshuffles immediately after taking office. Liz Truss dismissed and moved large numbers of ministers after becoming Prime Minister in September 2022, and Rishi Sunak did the same after succeeding Truss in October 2022. This article locates the tendency towards brutalism in the broader context of British Cabinet reshuffles. It compares the scale of takeover reshuffles with other types of reshuffles and demonstrates how incoming takeover Prime Ministers in the twenty‐first century have reconstructed their Cabinets more extensively than their predecessors. The article argues that the use of all‐member ballots in party leadership elections has been a key driver of brutalism, and it further identifies several reasons why future Prime Ministers might want to resist the tendency.

What’s on a Party Member’s Mind? Voting Motives in Competitive Party Leadership Elections

ABSTRACT Procedures of party leadership selection have attracted considerable scholarly attention in recent years, but voting motives of party members in leadership elections have not been fully studied yet. This paper presents a new model of voting in party leadership elections that is inspired by previous models that were mostly tailored to more exclusive selectorates (such as the parliamentary party). We adopt an inductive research strategy that is based on an open question in member surveys that were held on the occasion of three Belgian party leadership elections. As a result, we obtain a comprehensive model with eight different vote motivations: policy positions, electability, competence, perceptions of personality traits, socio-demographic characteristics, personal relationships, party-organisational reasons and negative voting. Our findings also show that the kinds of motivations that are put forward by members are dependent upon the number of contenders.

How many captains for a ship on electoral drift? Limiting the number of leadership candidates in the Flemish Christian-democratic party (CD&V)

Many Western parties have opened up the process of leadership selection to party members under the noble premises to democratize the party. Yet, this might just be window-dressing as party leadership selection is often a coronation rather than an open contest. We argue that the preparation phase preceding the actual election phase is crucial in understanding the balance between the impact of party members and the steering of the party elite. This study compares the preparation phase of two leadership contests after losing elections in one party, the Flemish Christian-democratic party in Belgium: one with a single candidate and one with an exceptionally high number of candidates. Our analysis, based on 22 in-depth elite interviews, demonstrates that leadership elections are influenced by a cluster of different influencing actors, but in particular by what we label the “last person standing” whose candidacy is identified as the most effective mechanism to influence the nomination process. Other (slightly less effective) influencing mechanisms include encouragements, discouragements and the diffusion of an ideal profile for the future party leader.

Lost but not blown away: How do losers of party leadership contests react?

Many Western parties have opened up the process of leadership selection in order to increase the party’s attractiveness, but negative reactions of losers in such contests might undermine these efforts. It has extensively been documented that losers of elections or referendums become less supportive of the political system, but the question is whether such a winner-loser gap also occurs in the context of intra-party elections. We examine unique panel data collected before and after the leadership elections of the Flemish Christian-Democratic Party and Liberal-Democratic Party and investigate the difference in change in attitudes and behavior of party members who voted for the losing candidates and those who voted for the winner. Contrary to earlier research on candidate selection, we find that only decision acceptance differs between winners and losers, while there is no gap in support for the electoral process, party membership satisfaction, and members’ activity within the party.

ACEH GOVERNMENT POLITICAL COMMUNICATION IN THE PROCESS OF DETERMINING OFFICER (Pj) GOVERNOR, REGENT AND MAYOR 2022 (Reflecting on the history of post-Tsunami Aceh Political communication)

Reflecting on the history of Aceh's political communication in ensuring peace stability and sustainable development, 2022, as the beginning of the political year, the 2024 General Election stage is also a new milestone in the dynamics of Aceh's political communication. Considering that the legal, legal and democratic leadership elections will only be held in 2024. Maintaining the stability of the regional government in the midst of the complexity of the problems, including in preparation for the implementation of the grand celebration of democracy is both a challenge and an opportunity. One of them is filling the acting head of the region by involving the process of regional and national political communication. Moreover, the tenure of almost three years. In July 2022, Aceh has 10 regional heads whose terms of service have ended. The transition of government in addition to filling vacancies, of course, is to maintain the stability of the running of the government which ensures the sustainability of regional and national development until a definitive regional head is elected. This research is important and interesting to understand the political communication process of the Aceh government in determining the official (Pj) based on the history of Aceh's political communication. This study focuses on reflecting on the history of post-peace Aceh political communication into lessons learned in the application of political communication in the process of determining officials (Pj). This research is a literature review, observations and interviews of characters. The research data was examined qualitatively descriptively. The results of the study are that understanding the history of the dynamics of Aceh's political communication can foster effective contemporary political communication for the Aceh government and stakeholders in the process of determining the acting (Pj) Governor, including Regents and Mayors. Political communication is applied directly or indirectly. Directly, the Aceh government conducts executive and legislative political communication both at the central and regional levels, recommends candidates to the Ministry of Home Affairs, and carries out political communication efforts with the President. Meanwhile, indirectly by involving all elements, among others; Universities, Ulama, Non-Governmental Organizations and mass media. An incumbent (Pj) who is expected in general, who has integrity, credibility, capacity, capability, understands Aceh's local wisdom.

Choosing the Conservative Leader: a View from History

AbstractThe history of the choice of Conservative Party leaders shows a progression from choice by an elite via choice by MPs to choice by party members. Even so, the parliamentary party retains, by contrast with the Labour Party, a dominant role in choosing the leader. The criterion of who is best placed to unify the party remains of importance, but is supplemented by two other criteria: who is best placed to win the next general election and who is the more genuinely Conservative of the various candidates. The Liz Truss premiership of 2022, however, the year of three Prime Ministers, seemed to cast doubt on the efficacy of Conservative leadership election rules.

Will Truss's Time end in Failure? Assessing the Prospects of the latest ‘Takeover’ Prime Minister

AbstractIn September 2022, Elizabeth Truss became the third Prime Minister in a row to take office directly as a result of a party leadership election. My study of takeovers between 1916 and 2016 found they have a shorter time in office than those who are elected, because they inherit deep crisis and divided parties. They also face the dilemma of whether, and when, to call a general election.

PARTI KEADILAN RAKYAT (PKR) DALAM PILIHAN RAYA UMUM DAN PEMILIHAN PKR 2022: IMPAK DAN MASA HADAPAN DALAM GEOPOLITIK MALAYSIA

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) is a multi-racial political party in Malaysia that fights for social justice for all communities but supports the Malaysian Constitution. This party was formed in conjunction with the dismissal of Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim in the Government and UMNO to demand justice for him and the persecuted people. The party has undergone a rebranding from Parti KeADILan Nasional (PKN/KeADILan) to Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) as a result of a merger with part of the leadership of Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM). From the 1999 General Election to 2018, the party participated in elections and experienced ups and downs in its performance. The party also held internal leadership elections which saw the participation of a large number of members in the party's elections. In the end, both elections have an impact on Malaysia's geopolitics from time to time. Therefore, it is the purpose of writing this article to analyze the performance of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) in the general election and the PKR 2022 election that has an impact and the future on Malaysian geopolitics. Based on primary sources, namely the results of the general election in Malaysia and secondary sources, namely journal articles, academic books, seminar papers and research reports, the findings show that PKR’s performance in the 1999-2018 GE is volatile based on current issues and voters’ confidence in the leadership. PKR. The results of the PKR 2022 internal election show that PKR members choose leaders who are experienced, competent and strong in administration as the government as well as leaders who are idealistic, far-sighted, visionary and independent in acting in politics. As a result, Malaysia's geopolitics is still stable with anything that happens in PKR but with the image as a multi-racial party and constantly facing internal and external conflicts then this will influence voters, especially Malay voters to support the party towards the next GE. Although there are various challenges and obstacles that this multi-racial political party has to go through, the future of this party is still bright if the strategy of attracting voters is in line with the current situation.