American Elections Research Articles

Leaving a Legacy: Shifting Media Use and American Democratic Attitudes

AbstractLocal political news is losing consumers over the past decade at a faster rate than other political media, while online news consumption is growing. Previous research shows that local news can slow polarization, encourage political participation, and reduce government and business corruption, but not whether changes over time can affect political attitudes. Is this consequential shift in the media environment associated with changes in Americans’ perceptions of electoral integrity and their system of government? We use a three-wave panel survey from 2012 to 2014 to assess the relationship between changes in self-reported news diets and opinions about American elections and democracy. Switching out of local newspapers is associated with a significant decrease in faith in elections but does not appear to influence support for the broader U.S. system of government. We conclude by discussing the implications of declining local and legacy media news use for Americans’ attitudes toward U.S. elections and democracy in the aftermath of the 2020 elections.

Down Girl Revisited: Kate Manne's theory of misogyny is required reading for the US Election in 2024 By K.Manne, New York: Oxford University Press. 2017. pp. 338. $14.95 (Paperback). ISBN: 9780190933203

<i>Down Girl</i> Revisited: Kate Manne's theory of misogyny is required reading for the US Election in 2024 By K.Manne, New York: Oxford University Press. 2017. pp. 338. $14.95 (Paperback). ISBN: 9780190933203

The 2024 US election—voting for equitable health care

The 2024 US election—voting for equitable health care

The Long Shadow of the Big Lie: How Beliefs about the Legitimacy of the 2020 Election Spill Over onto Future Elections

Abstract Has the “big lie”—the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump—shaped citizens’ views of the legitimacy of other US elections? We argue that it has. Those who believe Trump’s claim, whom we call election skeptics, lack confidence in elections for two interrelated reasons. First, because they think 2020 was inaccurately and unfairly conducted, they think that other elections will suffer a similar fate, and hence think these elections are illegitimate even before any votes are cast. Second, while most voters think elections are less legitimate when their preferred candidate loses, this effect will be especially large for election skeptics, because voter fraud gives them a mechanism to explain their candidate’s loss. Using an original panel dataset spanning the 2020 and 2022 elections, we show strong support for these hypotheses. This has important implications for our elections, and their legitimacy, moving forward.

Improving the Security of United States Elections with Robust Optimization

The preservation of democracy hinges on the reality and perception that votes in elections are counted properly. In the paper “Improving the Security of United States Elections with Robust Optimization,” Crimmins, Halderman, and Sturt provide a low-cost approach to reducing the security risks of voting machines that are used to scan ballots and count votes. Their approach consists of applying robust optimization to a century-old testing procedure called logic and accuracy testing (LAT), which is performed by election officials on each voting machine before each election. The authors show that their robust optimization approach is guaranteed to detect any misconfiguration of voting machines that would cause votes to be swapped across candidates. Applying their approach to Michigan’s November 2022 election, the authors show that their approach to LAT would have only required a 1.2% increase in cost to election officials compared with current practice. Their approach, which is forthcoming in the Societal Impact section, has been successfully piloted in real-world elections by the Michigan Bureau of Elections since Summer 2023 as a cost-efficient way to enhance election security and public trust in election outcomes.

The US election is monumental for science, say Nature readers — here’s why

The US election is monumental for science, say Nature readers — here’s why

United States Precinct Boundaries and Statewide Partisan Election Results

We describe the creation and verification of databases of all precinct boundaries used in the United States 2016, 2018, and 2020 November general elections, enhanced with election results for all partisan statewide offices. United States election officials report election results in the smallest geographic reporting known as the precinct. Scholars and practitioners find these election results valuable for numerous use cases. However, these data cannot be augmented with other geographically-bound data, such as U.S. Census data, without precinct boundaries. Here we describe the collection of precinct boundary data from state and local election officials, sometimes provided in GIS formats, images, text descriptions, and – in rare cases – verbally. We describe how we verify boundaries with other election data, such as geocoded voter registration files. Our open-source data has appeared in redistricting litigation argued before the United States Supreme Court; and has been used by state and local redistricting authorities, media organizations, advocacy groups, scholars, and a vibrant community of mapping enthusiasts.

On the Prospects of Security in Europe: Reflections on the Baltic Defence Conference 2023, Vilnius

The arguments made in this article are divided in three sections. First, the analysis looks at some of the immediate security-related concerns that have come to shape the Baltic Sea region. The second section branches out from the Baltic confines and takes into account the impact that the so-called CRINK states (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) have gained on the war against Ukraine through their support for Russia. This has turned the war into a broader conflagration than most observers have admitted for an extended period. Finally, the analysis cautiously addresses some of the imponderabilities provided by the upcoming presidential election in the United States.

Election-Denying Republican Candidates Underperformed in the 2022 Midterms

We combine newly collected election data with records of public denials of the results of the 2020 election to estimate the degree to which election-denying Republican candidates over- or underperformed other Republicans in 2022 in statewide and federal elections. We find that the average vote share of election-denying Republicans in statewide races was approximately 3.2 percentage points lower than their co-partisans after accounting for state-level partisanship. However, we find no such underperformance on aggregate for U.S. House elections, perhaps due to the more-partisan nature of many House districts. Together, the results suggest that the types of candidates in American elections who take more-extreme positions tend to underperform, but that these performance gaps are relatively small in the present, polarized political environment.

Presidential elections in the United States and the transatlantic agenda

Presidential elections in the United States and the transatlantic agenda

Health and the 2024 US Election

Health and the 2024 US Election

Disability Status and Voting Behavior in United States Elections in Older Men and Women: Findings from the 2020 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement

Disability Status and Voting Behavior in United States Elections in Older Men and Women: Findings from the 2020 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement

Supporting International Medical Graduate Workforce Integration in the 2024 US Election.

Supporting International Medical Graduate Workforce Integration in the 2024 US Election.

Introduction to Forecasting the 2024 US Elections

Introduction to Forecasting the 2024 US Elections

‘Remember, remember the month of November’: Ahead of COP29

‘Remember, remember the month of November’: Ahead of COP29 Professor of International Relations at the University of Leeds, Richard Beardsworth, looks with concern to this November’s COP29 and the US elections. The issue is climate leadership. The next UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, COP29, begins in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11th, six days after the U.S. general election. The conjuncture of these two dates is of critical importance for the future of climate action and the future of climate leadership driving it. This article rehearses what is at stake ahead of COP29 and where climate leadership stands in relation to it. Whatever the final plot, November is a month to be remembered.

Does the 2024 US election matter to science? Take Nature’s poll

Does the 2024 US election matter to science? Take Nature’s poll

Do markets pay attention to political disinformation?

They do, but not in ways one might think. Using an example from the 2016 Presidential election in the United States, we show that days with heavy doses of disinformation related to the candidates do not affect broad index stock returns. However, disinformation that was strongly pro-Hillary Clinton was associated with a substantial lowering of conditional volatility of stocks, even when controlling for other macroeconomic news and news sentiment.

Migration policy as a factor influencing the USA presidential election

The article presents the transformation of US migration policy and analyzes its impact on the balance of power in the 2024 presidential election campaign. The 2024 election campaign in the US is characterized by significant differences between the major parties and their voters, as well as an emphasis on key economic and immigration issues that have divided American society. Mexico is the main labor donor to the US, and it is also a gateway for illegal migration from Latin America and Southeast Asia. Almost all the time of the existence of the United States, the immigration policy of the country shows that migration plays an important role in the development of American society. The problem of illegal migration has always existed and continues to have a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the country. The current U.S. immigration strategy combines continuity with restrictive measures, while seeking to adapt migration flows to the economic needs of the country. The article analyzes the impact of migration policy on the U.S. political landscape during the 2024 election campaign. Migration policy in the United States today is a tool for conducting political struggle and "settling scores". Illegal migrants from Latin American countries will have a particular impact on the upcoming elections, so a characteristic feature of the 2024 election campaign is a cross-party struggle for the Latin American electorate, coupled with tougher migration policies. The authors draw attention to the reasons for the transformation of the US migration system and give their forecast regarding the outcome of elections in the country under certain conditions.

Monkeys Predict US Elections.

How people vote often defies rational explanation. Physical traits sometimes sway voters more than policies do-but why? Here we show that rhesus macaques, who have no knowledge about political candidates or their policies, implicitly predict the outcomes of U.S. gubernatorial and senatorial elections based solely on visual features. Given a pair of candidate photos, monkeys spent more time looking at the loser than the winner, and this gaze bias predicted not only binary election outcomes but also the candidates' vote share. Analysis of facial features revealed candidates with more masculine faces were more likely to win an election, and vote share was a linear function of jaw prominence. Our findings endorse the idea that voters spontaneously respond to evolutionarily conserved visual cues to physical prowess and that voting behavior is shaped, in part, by ancestral adaptations shared with nonhuman primates.

Climate policy regime change and mutual fund flows: Insights from the 2020 US election

President Biden campaigned and was elected on a bold “clean energy revolution,” a pledge that drastically reshaped expectations surrounding US climate policy. We study how mutual fund investors respond to this significant shift in environmental priorities. We find that low-carbon funds attract (or retain) $15 billion more investments than high-carbon funds during the three months after the 2020 election compared with the three months before. We also find that low-carbon funds underperform high-carbon funds by between 0.47 % and 0.89 % a month during the same period. These results indicate that Biden's election heightens climate transition risk awareness, prompting investors to hedge this risk by investing more in low-carbon funds and receiving lower returns. The flow effect is more pronounced among retail investors, emphasizing their increased recognition of climate transition risk. We also uncover an interesting clientele effect: investors in low-carbon funds consider continuous carbon risk measures, whereas investors in high-carbon funds do not. Furthermore, our analysis of a US-only fund sample reveals that sensitivity to climate risk is insignificant in 2018 after Morningstar first published low-carbon metrics (unlike Ceccarelli, Ramelli, & Wagner, 2024) but becomes particularly significant following the 2020 election.