Elasticity Of Substitution In Production Research Articles

Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies

We study the role of domestic production networks in the transmission of commodity price fluctuations in small open economies. First, we present a tractable model of a small open economy's production network to explain sectoral propagation patterns. We demonstrate that the domestic production network is crucial in shaping the propagation of commodity prices. Using a panel of 31 sectors across 9 small open economies, we empirically confirm the model's predictions. Next, we construct a dynamic model of a small open economy featuring a production network to study the macroeconomic importance of the network structure in shaping both aggregate and sectoral responses to commodity price shocks. We show that: (i) the network-adjusted labor share of the commodity sector, rather than the sector's size, is key to understanding the real wage's response to commodity price fluctuations; and (ii) non-unitary elasticities of substitution in production are crucial for understanding the cross-sectional implications of these fluctuations.

Production network diversification and economic development

We provide empirical evidence and a theoretical analysis of the influence of production network diversification on countries' economic performance, reflected in their GDP per-capita levels. Using a panel sample of 55 countries, we find a strong positive association between the number of active links in the input-output network of a country and its GDP per-capita over time, even after controlling for several country characteristics. To complement and scrutinize our empirical finding, we advance economic theory on the link between network diversity and economic development by proposing a multisector model with input-output linkages, non-unitary elasticity of substitution in production, and a love of diversification in the bundle of intermediate inputs that rationalize our empirical results. In the long run, when labor and intermediates are substitute inputs, denser production structures enjoy higher productivity in the intermediate input bundle and also amplify positive shocks more strongly than less connected networks. Hence, our model predicts that economies with denser production structures display higher income.

Income shares, secular stagnation and the long‐run distribution of wealth

AbstractFour alarming stylized facts have recently emerged in the United States: (a) a decline in the labor share of income; (b) a decline in labor productivity; (c) an increase in the top 1% wealth share and (d) an increase in the capital‐income ratio. In Capital in the XXI Century, Thomas Piketty's argument is that the r > g inequality determines an increase in the capital‐income ratio; if the elasticity of substitution in production is above one, the profit share rises. We provide a contrasting explanation that draws from the Post Keynesian approach to differential saving propensities between classes and the Classical‐Marxian theory of induced technical change. In a simple model of “capitalists” and “workers,” we show that institutional changes that lower the labor share—declining unionization, increasing monopsony power in the labor market, the global ‘race to the bottom' in unit labor costs or the exhaustion of path‐breaking scientific discoveries—can reduce labor productivity growth because of the lessened incentives to innovate to save on labor costs. A falling labor share reduces workers' total savings, and wealth concentrates in the capitalists' hands. A higher profit share and wealth share both put pressure on accumulation: but the long‐run growth rate, which is anchored to labor productivity growth, has fallen. To restore balanced growth, the capital‐income ratio must rise, independent of the elasticity of substitution. These tendencies are not inevitable: taxation can be used to implement any wealth distribution targeted by policymakers, while worker‐crushing institutional arrangements can also in principle be reversed through policy. Neither change appears likely given the current institutional and global policy climate.

Flexibility and Frictions in Multisector Models

This paper documents two facts: (i) elasticities of substitution in production vary significantly across sectors, with manufacturing sectors being generally less flexible than service sectors, and (ii) during the Great Recession the rise in bond spreads varied systematically with these elasticities. Specifically, more flexible sectors paid lower spreads during the Great Recession. Moreover, among the less-flexible manufacturing sectors, sectors with relatively high flexibility and high debt saw their spreads rise less than average, while among the more-flexible service sectors the sectors with relatively high flexibility and high debt saw their spreads rise more. We interpret these results using a simple two-sector model with working capital constraints, and show that the model replicates these observations if manufacturing sectors face constraints on their purchases of intermediates while services face constraints on their purchases of labor/capital. The dynamics of intermediate prices and quantities support our results, as does a quantitative investigation of a 62-sector version of the US economy.

Income Shares, Secular Stagnation, and the Long-Run Distribution of Wealth

Four alarming stylized facts have recently emerged in the United States: (i) a decline in the labor share of income; (ii) a decline in labor productivity; (iii) an increase in the top 1% wealth share, and (iv) an increase in the capital-income ratio. In Capital in the XXI Century, Thomas Piketty’s argument is that the r > g inequality determines an increase in the capital-income ratio; if the elasticity of substitution in production is above one, the profit share rises. We provide a contrasting explanation that draws from the Post Keynesian approach to differential saving propensities between classes and the Classical-Marxian theory of induced technical change. In a simple model of ‘capitalists’ and ‘workers,’ we show that institutional changes that lower the labor share—declining unionization, increasing monopsony power in the labor market, the global ‘race to the bottom’ in unit labor costs, or the exhaustion of path-breaking scientific discoveries—can reduce labor productivity growth because of the lessened incentives to innovate to save on labor costs. A falling labor share reduces workers’ total savings, and wealth concentrates in the capitalists’ hands. A higher profit share and wealth share both put pressure on accumulation: but the long-run growth rate, which is anchored to labor productivity growth, has fallen. To restore balanced growth, the capital-income ratio must rise, independent of the elasticity of substitution. These tendencies are not inevitable: taxation can be used to implement any wealth distribution targeted by policymakers; while worker-crushing institutional arrangements can also in principle be reversed through policy. Neither change appears likely given the current institutional and global policy climate.

FISCAL POLICY AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE

This paper examines the mechanisms through which government spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral mobility costs for private capital, we show that public investment generates (i) a nonmonotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs and (ii) a crowding-in of private consumption, consistent with stylized facts. The effects of public consumption, however, are in sharp contrast to those of public investment. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the sectoral composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the sectoral intensity of private capital in production, (iv) the relative sectoral productivity of public infrastructure, (v) the elasticity of substitution in production, and (vi) intersectoral mobility costs for capital. In deriving these results, we identify conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities. Our results underscore the importance of decoupling the effects of government investment from those of government consumption in understanding the relationship between fiscal policy and the real exchange rate.

General equilibrium models with Morishima elasticities of substitution in production

Analytical general equilibrium (AGE) models are important tools that economists use to answer questions about theory and policy. When a production function has three or more inputs, the traditional modeling technique employs Allen elasticities of substitution to represent general functional forms. This paper builds an analytical general equilibrium model using the Morishima elasticity of substitution (MES). Specifically, an existing model using Allen elasticities is reformulated to employ the MES and the new, closed-form solutions are interpreted with additional insights from the reformulation. Importantly, the special case of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production follows directly when using Morishima elasticities, but not Allen elasticities. This paper also provides a general technique for switching from Allen to Morishima elasticities in any existing AGE model and demonstrates a one-to-one numerical equivalence regardless of the elasticity measure employed. Replicating prior results, plausible parameter values are applied to the reformulated model to analyze the source-side, distributional effects of a pollution tax and highlight how the Allen and Morishima elasticities differ.

International factor mobility, elasticity of substitution in production and the skilled–unskilled wage gap

The existing studies have shown that the skilled–unskilled wage gap is affected by the size of elasticity of substitution in consumption. This paper focuses on the role of elasticity of substitution in production. Within the context of this paper, elasticity of substitution in production measures the degree of substitutability between capital and labour. By making use of a two-sector (low-tech and high-tech) general equilibrium model, this paper argues that differences in the degree of substitutability between capital and labour can also affect the size of factor inflow induced skilled–unskilled wage gap. Inflow of capital increases the skilled–unskilled wage gap as long as capital and labour can be relatively easily substituted in the low-tech sector. On the other hand, under the same scenario, inflow of either type of labour decreases the skilled–unskilled wage gap.

The effect of labor supply changes on output: empirical evidence from US industries

In this paper we examine the relationship between labor supply and industry-level output in the context of the specific factors model. Jones (Trade, balance of payment and growth: essays in honor of Charles P. Kindleberger, Amsterdam, pp 3–21, 1971) shows that a rise in the amount of labor in the economy will increase the output in all industries. We empirically show which industry output is predicted to expand more when the size of labor force grows. Unlike the commonly used Rybczynski Theorem (Economica 22:336–341, 1955) of the Heckscher-Ohlin model, the specific factors model shows that a comparison both of labor intensities and labor demand elasticities plays an important role in determining which output expands relatively more when the size of labor force grows. For this purpose, we illustrate the importance of the parameters of the model in determining how changes in the labor supply affect the output change, with special reference to elasticities of substitution in production. We estimate the elasticity of substitution by using CES production function and show how these estimates describe the general equilibrium of production with one mobile factor (labor) and 25 industries of the US economy using data for 1979–2001. We show that the increase in the supply of labor raise output in all industries, but the magnitudes of the increases in some industries are more than others depending on the value of the elasticity of substitution along with factor intensities between industries. The largest output effect occurs for educational, health care and social service, where a 1 % supply of labor increase would raise output 10.5 %. However, the growth in the labor supply has a small impact on output growth in the range of 0.1–0.6 % in agriculture, petroleum, coal product and finance and insurance industries.

Local Tax Competition and Indirect Tax Exportation

This article studies capital tax competition in a model with external ownership of fixed factors. A simple condition is provided on the feasibility of an efficient Nash equilibrium, which depends only on factor income shares, the elasticity of substitution in production, and the size of the public sector. For a reasonable setting and related values, tax exporting incentives are too weak to cancel out the positive externality of tax competition, leading to the conclusion that the most likely outcome is that there will be an undersupply of public activity.

Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper examines the mechanisms through which government spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral mobility costs for private capital, we show that public investment generates a (i) non-monotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs, and (ii) a crowding-in of private consumption, consistent with stylized facts. The effects of public consumption, however, are in sharp contrast to those of public investment. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the sectoral composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the sectoral intensity of private capital in production, (iv) the relative sectoral productivity of public infrastructure, (v) the elasticity of substitution in production, and (vi) intersectoral mobility costs for capital. In deriving these results, we identify conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities. Our results underscore the importance of decoupling the effects of government investment from government consumption in understanding the relationship between fiscal policy and the real exchange rate.

The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

This paper analyzes the impact of an increase in the price of energy (oil) on the growth and welfare of a small developing economy. We consider the extent to which the impacts of energy price shocks depend upon the economy’s internal production structure and its access to the world financial market. We find that the effect on the long-run growth rate depends heavily on the former and is independent of the latter. The effect of accessibility to the world financial market on long-run welfare depends heavily on the elasticity of substitution in production. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations, thereby enabling us to characterize the short-run dynamics. Overall, the simulations can replicate much of the empirical evidence used to characterize the effects of the recent oil price increases on the economy. They also highlight the sensitivity of the effect of the energy price to the elasticity of substitution.

The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy

This paper analyzes the impact of an increase in the price of oil on a small developing economy. We consider the extent to which the impacts of oil price shocks depend upon the economy's internal production structure and its access to the world financial market, and find that the long-run impact depends much more on the former than the latter. Two critical quantities summarizing the long-run effects are (i) the relative share of oil to labor in output and (ii) the elasticity of substitution in production. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations, thereby enabling us to characterize the short-run dynamics. Overall, the simulations can replicate much of the empirical evidence used to characterize the effects of the recent oil price increases on the economy. They also highlight the sensitivity of the effect of the oil price to the elasticity of substitution.

Negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in response to increases in energy efficiency in the UK national economy. Previous work for the UK has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. The research reported in this paper involves carrying out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where relative price sensitivity is gradually introduced into the system, focusing specifically on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. The main result is that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demands for energy are very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income, competitiveness and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices. The occurrence of disinvestment effects is of particular interest. These occur where falling energy prices reduce profitability in domestic energy supply sectors, leading to a contraction in capital stock in these sectors, which may in turn lead to rebound effects that are smaller in the long run than in the short run, a result that runs contrary to the predictions of previous theoretical work in this area.

FIXED COSTS, THE BALANCED BUDGET MULTIPLIER AND WELFARE

In a two-sector model, where one of the sectors is monopolistically competitive and subject to increasing returns to scale but without love for variety, we analyse the effects of a balanced budget fiscal expansion. Such an expansion could increase the welfare of the representative individual, if elasticities of substitution in production and consumption are low. A reorganization of production takes place—increasing returns enabling a rise in real income.

Who bears the burden of a tax on carbon emissions in Japan?

We develop a simple general equilibrium model in the style of Harberger to analyze the distributional effects of the proposed “environment tax” on carbon in Japan. We derive closed-form equations that show how a change in the tax rate affects the economy-wide return to capital, wage, and output prices. The two main features of the economy that determine the sources-side incidence of the tax are the factor intensities of the polluting and nonpolluting industries and the elasticity of substitution in production between polluting inputs and labor or capital. The input that is a better substitute for pollution usually bears a lower burden of the tax than the other input, although we find conditions under which this is not true. If the polluting sector is relatively capital intensive, then capital can bear a higher burden of the tax. Calibrating this model to the Japanese economy, we find a trade-off between these two effects. Polluting industries are more capital intensive, but capital is likely to be a better substitute for pollution than is labor.

Foreign aid and economic growth: The role of flexible labor supply

This paper examines the link between foreign aid, economic growth, and welfare in a small open economy. External transfers impinge on the recipient's macroeconomic performance by affecting resource allocation decisions and relative prices. The endogeneity of the labor–leisure choice plays a crucial role in the propagation of foreign aid shocks. The efficacy of foreign aid also depends on externalities associated with the public good that it helps finance. The impact of tied and untied aid on the recipient government's intertemporal fiscal balance is examined. Finally, the transitional adjustment to a foreign aid shock is shown to be sensitive to the elasticity of substitution in production and the relative importance of the labor–leisure choice in utility.

The Allocation of Resources under Uncertainty

We study the effects of uncertainty on the allocation of resources in the standard, static, general equilibrium, two-sector, two-factor model. The elasticity of substitution in production vs that in consumption plays a key role in determining whether uncertainty attracts or repels resources. Risk aversion matters, but to a smaller extent, while factor endowments and factor intensities play a more limited role.

Financing Public Investment through Foreign Aid: Consequences for Economic Growth and Welfare*

AbstractThe paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding the mechanism through which foreign aid affects macroeconomic performance. The authors find that the long‐run impact of an aid program and the nature of the transitional dynamics it generates depend crucially on (i) the elasticity of substitution in production, (ii) whether the aid flow is tied to investment activity or not, (iii) how the recipient government chooses to react to the flow of external assistance, and (iv) whether the aid program is permanent or temporary. Structural characteristics of the recipient are important in determining the extent to which external assistance can aid growth and welfare.

Anti-trade Bias in Trade Policy and General Equilibrium

An important question that has continued to elude trade economists is why trade interventions are biased in favor of import-competing rather than exportable sectors. Indeed, as Philip Levy (1999) points out, under a set of neutrality assumptions, the dominant political-economy model, Grossman and Helpman (1994), predicts a pro-trade bias. We demonstrate that if we replace the almost partial equilibrium model with a general equilibrium model in the Grossman-Helpman political economy model, anti-trade bias may emerge even if we assume symmetric technologies, endowments and preferences across sectors provided that the elasticity of substitution in production exceeds unity. In addition, we show that ceteris paribus, in general equilibrium, increases in the imports-to-GDP ratio lower the endogenously chosen tariff and the production share of the import sector in GDP has an ambiguous effect.