Elasticity Of Money Demand Research Articles

Financial Innovations and the Interest Elasticity of Money Demand in Jordan (2009-2022)

This study aimed to determine the relationship between financial innovations and the interest elasticity of money demand, and based on a set of statistical tests, the ordinary least squares method was determined to achieve this goal.Using quarterly data on the Jordanian economy for the period (2009-2022), the study estimated the demand for money as a function of income and interest rate. The empirical results reached in this study showed that all determinants of money demand have the expected signs and were statistically significant. Regarding the relationship between financial innovations and the interest elasticity of money demand, the results indicated that financial innovations after 2016 reduced the sensitivity of money demand to interest rate. Therefore, the absolute value of the interest elasticity of money demand decreased, which means an increase in the effectiveness of monetary policy as financial innovations may improve the efficiency of the financial system, in a way that facilitates the work of monetary policy and increases its effectiveness. However, monetary policy makers must monitor these innovations and developments and limit the negative changes that may accompany them, and work to design a modern monetary policy that is in line with these developments.

The rise of internet-only banks: Analyzing the bias in cross-prefectural money demand elasticity

In 2021, new bank forms, such as Internet-only banks, amassed 2 % of Japanese deposits. Tokyo’s statistics since 2005 encompass deposits in such banks, regardless of depositor location. These Tokyo-based banks operate branchless. Elevated deposits reported in Tokyo, Japan’s highest-income prefecture, could skew the income elasticity of money demand upwards in a cross-sectional regression. This study proposes reallocating Tokyo’s bank deposits to all prefectures to quantify the bias. Additionally, it suggests aggregating fifteen prefectures into five areas to address discrepancies between the deposit and income locations owing to cross-prefectural commuting. Adjusting for new bank deposits, the income elasticity of money demand decreased from 0.899 to 0.872 in March 2021, with overestimation increasing since March 2005. These findings suggest the adequacy of regional statistics in reflecting economic behavior in the digital era, warranting reevaluation.

The demand for money at the zero interest rate bound

SummaryThis paper undertakes both a narrow and wide replication of the estimation of a money demand function conducted by Ireland (American Economic Review, 2009). Using US data from 1980 to 2013, we show that the substantial increase in the money‐income ratio during the period of near‐zero interest rates is captured well by the log–log specification but not by the semi‐log specification, contrary to the result obtained by Ireland (2009). Our estimate of the interest elasticity of money demand over the 1980–2013 period is about one‐tenth that of Lucas's paper published in 2000, which used a log–log specification. Finally, neither specification satisfactorily fits post‐2015 US data.

Stability of the Money Demand Function Revisited: Evidence from Sierra Leone

The study empirically examined the stability of the money demand function that justifies the adoption of the monetary aggregate targeting framework by the Bank of Sierra Leone using quarterly data spanning from 2002 to 2018. To account for structural breaks emanating from policy shocks and regime shifts in the data such as the civil unrest from 1991-2002, the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak from 2014-2016, the mudslide in 2017 and other global shocks, the study conducted unit root tests with structural breaks and regime shift. The long-run estimates of the ARDL model confirm the stability of the money demand functions. In particular, the results show high income elasticity of money demand when narrow money was used as the dependent variable, implying a cash based economy that requires serious consideration in the conduct of monetary policy. Given that the economy is still rudimentary with high propensity of underground economic activities, it is palpable that monetary policy will continue to be challenged especially when the central bank continues to struggle in mopping up excess liquidity in the banking system as a result of the enormous shadow activities in the country. Hence, any policy that is geared towards targeting the narrower definition rather than broader definition of money could help mitigate the challenges associated with withdrawing excess liquidity from the banking system and thus enhances the conduct of an effective monetary policy.

An Analysis of the Money Demand Function for Zambia: A Gregory Hansen Cointegration Approach

The objective of this study was to analyze the money demand function for Zambia for the period 1978 – 2018 using annual time series data. The study employed the Gregory Hansen cointegration technique. The study also employed Hendry’s General to Specific technique to estimate the error correction model by obtaining a parsimonious model. The results of the Gregory Hansen test confirmed the presence of a cointegrating relationship and selected the GH-2 model as the most plausible model with a level shift and a trend. The results also endogenously determined 1994 as the break year in the money demand function. Other interesting results obtained by the study suggest that inflation and interest rate are the robust determinants of real money demand both in the short and long run. Furthermore, unlike many other developing countries, the results show that money is a necessity in Zambia. The other interesting results suggested by the study are that the financial sector reforms of 1994 diminished the demand for real money; however, the positive time trend suggests that there has been an increase in real money holdings over time in Zambia. The low-interest elasticity of money demand also potentially compromises the effectiveness of money supply as a monetary policy tool for economic stabilization. The results of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ confirm the stability of the money demand function in Zambia.

Time-varying money demand and real balance effects

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that household's money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the household's preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend inflation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high trend inflation. A further decline in the interest-elasticity of the demand for money was observed in the 1980s due to the changing household preferences that emerged in response to financial innovation. These developments led to a reduction in the welfare cost of inflation that subsequently explains the rise in monetary neutrality observed in the data.

Money and business cycle: Evidence from India

In this paper we take a New Keynesian model with non-separable money in utility to Indian data using maximum likelihood. The identification problem in isolating the effect of money on output and inflation is solved by adjusting real balances for shifts in money demand. Estimates with an extended model with relevant features like partial indexation in prices, markup shock and time varying inflation target, show that real balances do affect output and inflation even after correcting for money demand unlike results for the United States and Eurozone. A regression estimate and multivariate structural vector autoregression give similar results. Types of money matter. Reserve money has the largest impact, pointing to the importance of the informal sector. The estimated income elasticity of narrow money is more than twice that of broad money, pointing to the dependence of firms on banks. Interest semi elasticity of money demand is close to one. Responsiveness of output to real interest rate is high. We find that interest rate setting is quite persistent. Coefficient of lagged interest rate varies from 0.71 to 0.95. We conclude that there is a significant asymmetry in the role of money in India (an emerging economy) in comparison to United States and Eurozone (advanced economies).

Welfare Cost of Inflation: Evidence from India

In this paper, we estimate the welfare cost of inflation (WCI) to understand how costly anticipated inflation is in India. The WCI is estimated both in partial and general equilibrium framework using consumer surplus and compensating variation approaches. Based on the quarterly data from 1996–97Q1 to 2014–15Q2, we found that the WCI at an inflation rate of 10% is ~ 0.53% of GDP. This implies that reducing inflation from 10 to 0% may result in an output gain of 0.53% of GDP. The study also shows that the WCI is an increasing function of rate of inflation and inflation elasticity of money demand. The inflation elasticity is estimated through double-log and semi-log specifications of money demand using Fisher and Seater (Am Econ Rev 402–415, 1993) long-horizon regression approach. It is found that the specification of money demand influences the magnitude of WCI.

THE SWINGS OF U.S. INFLATION AND THE GIBSON PARADOX

In recent business cycles, U.S. inflation has experienced a reduction of volatility and a severe weakening in the correlation to the nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). We examine these facts in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money. Our findings point at a flatter New Keynesian Phillips Curve (higher price stickiness) and a lower persistence of markup shocks as the main explanatory factors. In addition, a higher interest‐rate elasticity of money demand, an increasing role of demand‐side shocks, and a less systematic behavior of Fed's monetary policy also account for the recent patterns of U.S. inflation dynamics. (JEL E32, E47)

A TIME-VARYING APPROACH OF THE US WELFARE COST OF INFLATION

Money-demand specifications exhibit instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible time-varying (TV) cointegration methodology to estimate the money-demand function. We find evidence that the TV cointegration estimation provides a better fit of the actual data than a time-invariant estimation and that the throughout unitary income elasticity only exists for the log–log form over the entire sample period. Our estimate of the welfare cost of inflation for a 10% inflation rate lies in the range of 0.025–0.75% of gross domestic product (GDP) and averages 0.27%. In sum, our findings fall well within the ranges of existing studies of the welfare cost of inflation. We find that the welfare cost averages 7.4% higher during expansions than recessions for 10% inflation rate. Finally, the interest elasticity of money demand shows substantial variability over our sample period.

Estimation of the liquidity trap using a panel threshold model

ABSTRACTThis empirical study investigates, unlike previous studies, the presence of a liquidity trap using firm-level data. The study focuses on the case of China. A panel threshold model is employed. The empirical estimation reveals that the interest elasticity of money demand declines as the interest rate falls, a finding indicating that China has not been in a liquidity trap.

An empirical investigation of stability of money demand for GCC countries

Money demand stability attracts the attention of policy makers while deciding the right policy instrument for the monetary policy. The present study estimates the money demand function by using a time spam of 1980-2014 for the GCC countries. For this purpose, it uses the ARDL cointegration technique to find long-run relationships. The cointegration test has confirmed the long-run relationships in money demand functions for all GCC countries. In the long-run analysis, a positive income elasticity of money demand has been found in all GCC countries. Negative and significant semi-interest rate elasticity has been found in UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Positive and significant exchange rate elasticity has been found in UAE and KSA and it has found negative in Qatar and Kuwait. Positive and significant inflation rate elasticity has been found in Kuwait and Bahrain and it has found negative in UAE, Oman and KSA. Short-run analysis also reveals some significant elasticities. Further, money demand function proofs stable in KSA and Oman and it remains unstable for the rest of GCC countries.

Money Illusion and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

This paper investigates the role of money illusion on exchange rate dynamics in a small open economy. We find that whether the exchange rate overshoots in response to a monetary shock is not depend on the parameters such as the consumption elasticity of money demand and the degree of openness proposed by Lane (1997), but the phenomenon of money illusion, this is because the degree of correlation between money demand and consumption is lower with the existence of money illusion, hence the exchange rate must present the excessive adjustment in order to re-achieve the new equilibrium position of the money market, exchange rate overshooting takes place.

Meta-analýza důchodové elasticity poptávky po penězích

The income elasticity of money demand is one of the most frequently estimated parameters in economics, but the individual estimates of the elasticity vary a lot. In this paper we present a quantitative survey of the literature estimating this parameter. We collect previous empirical estimates of the elasticity from many studies and analyze why the estimated elasticities differ so much. We test whether the literature is affected by the so-called publication selection bias; that is, if estimates consistent with mainstream theories tend to be published more often. Moreover, we analyze whether the reported estimates of the elasticity differ systematically across countries, estimation methods, and time periods.

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al.(1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al. (1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.

Money demand income elasticity in advanced and developing countries: new evidence from meta-analysis

This article extends the meta-analysis presented in Knell and Stix (2005, 2006) to investigate the possible sources of variations in empirical findings about the income elasticity of money demand in advanced and developing countries. In the case of advanced countries, we find that the income elasticities of money demand are significantly higher if broader definitions of the monetary aggregates are used. In addition, financial reforms and wealth seem to have significantly reduced the estimates of the income elasticity. However, we achieved quite different findings for the developing countries. It appears that the broader definitions of monetary aggregates seem to produce income elasticity estimates that are only marginally higher than the narrower aggregates. While the wealth (financial reform) impacts on income elasticity are statistically insignificant (weakly significant), both seems to have reduced the income elasticity estimates only marginally. Moreover, some contrasting results between advanced and developing countries are also attained with respect to the proxies of cost of holding money.

Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity

This paper estimates money demand equations for the euro area, the US and the UK using a quantile regression framework and a smooth-transition regression. The quantile regression technique highlights that: (i) the income and the interest rate semi-elasticities are significantly different from the OLS estimates at the tails of the distribution of real money holdings; and (ii) the sensitivity of money demand with respect to inflation tends to be larger when real money holdings are extremely low. Finally, the smooth transition model provides two interesting findings. On the one hand, they capture reasonably well the nonlinear dynamics associated with the money demand function. On the other hand, they show that the elasticity of money demand with respect to inflation rate, interest rate, GDP and exchange rate varies not only in accordance with the regime considered, but also across the countries under consideration.

Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?

This paper investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We demonstrate three insights. First, for countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. Second, the fit markedly improves, when correcting for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using elasticities implied by theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, the sample after 1990 shows considerably less inflation variability, worsening the fit of a one-for-one relationship between money growth and inflation, and generates a fairly low elasticity of money demand.

The Recent Financial Deregulation and the Interest Elasticity of the Simple M1 Demand Function: An Empirical Note

The main objective of this note is to examine whether the interest elasticity of money demand has increased during the last few years. A simple money demand regression that includes additional intercept and slope dummy variables defined over the interval 1981.01 to 1985.03 is estimated for the whole sample period 1961.01-1985.03. The regression results show that the elasticity of money demand with respect to market interest rates has for now increased. No shifts are detected in income and time trend elasticities. The in-sample predictions of the more interest-sensitive money demand regression are broadly consistent with the actual behavior of Ml observed so far in the 1980s. The residuals also suggest that the MI demand function has been subject to transitory shocks over the same period.