Import Demand Elasticities Research Articles

Demand Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Countries along the "Belt and Road".

International agricultural markets are an important part of the global food resource chain. Tapping into the potential of agricultural trade between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" (B&R) is conducive to safeguarding China's and the world's food security, but there is less literature on the potential of bilateral trade demand. This paper ranks the B&R countries according to the scale of imports and exports, and calculates the elasticity of demand for imports, the elasticity of substitution for exports, and, finally, the potential of elasticity of demand for trade between China and the major B&R countries. The results show that China's agricultural export potential to major B&R countries is ranked as follows: Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, Poland, Turkey, Vietnam, Malaysia, Ukraine, India, and Singapore. The major B&R countries are also ranked in terms of their export potential to China: Vietnam, India, Ukraine, Russia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Poland, Singapore, and Turkey. The findings of this paper provide a decision-making basis for promoting agricultural trade between China and B&R countries.

Heteroskedastic supply and demand estimation: Analysis and testing

The Feenstra (1994) method is widely used in the international trade literature to estimate supply and demand elasticities. The method is mechanically an IV strategy, and we demonstrate that this has important implications for its application and reliability. The assumptions needed for it to yield unbiased estimates are stronger than previously understood, and in practice, estimates are subject to bias due to both weak instruments and violations of the exclusion restriction. We illustrate how these arise in context and show that standard tests identify estimates that are likely to be biased. In an application to U.S. import data, estimates of import demand and export supply elasticities are substantially lower among goods that pass standard tests relative to those that fail. We find evidence that this difference in elasticities reflects reduction of bias as well as some selection in the set of goods that tend to pass both tests.

Dynamic analysis of Caribbean food import demand

Short- and long-run price and income elasticities are generally unavailable at the regional level for major imported food groups for the Caribbean. These elasticity measures are needed to enhance policymaking. This paper therefore seeks to determine the income, own-price and cross-price elasticities of eight major imported food groups. This will show the relationships between income and price changes on the import quantities for the major food groups. This was done using an error-corrected linear approximate almost ideal demand system (EC-LA-AIDS) for the period 1961–2021, using annual data. The study found that the theoretical restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry did not hold in the static LA-AIDS model but did in the EC-LA-AIDS model. The speed of adjustment parameter in the EC-LA-AIDS model revealed that imported beverages had the slowest adjustment to long-run equilibrium while all other imported food categories had a moderate adjustment speed. The study also derived short- and long-run income and price elasticities of import demand for the eight imported food categories. In both time horizons, income elasticities revealed that all imported food categories were normal goods. In both time horizons, imported meat and seafood, and sugar and honey were the most responsive to changes in income, while spices and tea was the least responsive. Own-price elasticities revealed that all imported food categories were import price inelastic except for meat and seafood which was found to be import price elastic in both time horizons. Additionally, cross-price elasticities unveiled various substitution and complementary relationships between pairs of imported foods. The study not only contributed empirical insights into the import demand dynamics of the Caribbean, but also emphasized significant policy implications arising from the research findings.

The COVID-19 pandemics and import demand elasticities: evidence from China’s customs data

We study China’s import demand elasticities using HS 8-digit customs data on China’s provincial imports during January 2019 to March 2021. It is found that both direct bilateral exchange rate elasticity and third-country exchange rate elasticity are affected by (1) policies that these Asian economies adopted to alleviate the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) the degree of concentration of exporters exporting a certain product to a certain Chinese provincial market. It is found that economic support policies will lower the bilateral exchange rate elasticity of trade flows, or even alter the sign of the bilateral exchange rate elasticity of China’s imports. Besides, the economic support policies can alleviate the pressure of foreign competition on exporters and make the exporters more resilient to the impacts of foreign competitors’ exchange rate depreciation. In contrast, the degree of market concentration of exporters in a certain provincial market affects the exchange rate and the third-country exchange rate elasticity differently. A higher market concentration lowers the bilateral exchange rate elasticity of trade flows but magnifies the impact of foreign competitors’ currency depreciation on exporters. These results are robust to alternative modes of trade, regional heterogeneity, product heterogeneity, various measures of policy responses to the pandemic, and alternative database.

Policies to reduce India's crude oil import dependence amidst clean energy transition

This study estimates the income, price, and cross-price elasticity of crude oil import demand for India to assess whether policies adopted to reduce India's oil import dependence are on the right trajectory and recommends policies for clean energy transitions. We find that the oil import demand changes over time with its price, income and electricity price. The demand reacts differently with the increase or decrease in its determinants and as the demand for oil imports rises or falls. The outcomes reveal that the crude oil import demand has become more inelastic in price and income than in earlier studies (Dash et al., 2018; Ghosh, 2009). Also, the study finds that electricity is a potential substitute for crude oil. The inelastic price indicates that imposing a carbon tax would have a marginal impact on reducing carbon emissions from crude oil. Results advocate that the reduction in electricity prices would lead to a drop in crude oil import dependence with a cascading impact on India's carbon emissions. The study recommends a judicious mix of renewables supplemented by cleaner coal technologies to instigate India's clean energy transition by reducing carbon emissions from electricity generation and transportation.

Controlling for exporter-level factors when estimating import demand elasticities

I extend the Feenstra (1994) method to estimate import-demand elasticities to include theoretically motivated controls for exporter-level factors. These additional covariates increase the likelihood that the moment condition required for identification is satisfied in practice. F-tests support the extended model.

Estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Mexico: a cointegration analysis

PurposeThis study estimated total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. A high propensity to import constitutes a significant obstacle to economic growth in Mexico since the benefits of increased exports or any other aggregate demand expansion leak to the rest of the world.Design/methodology/approachThis paper estimated a Vector Error Correction Model of the total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. Total imports are a dependent variable, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and import and domestic prices are the independent variables.FindingsThe principal finding is that an increase of 1 peso in the Mexican GDP leads to a rise of 0.50 pesos in Mexican imports; the elasticity of import demand for prices is low. Still, the elasticity of import demand for domestic prices is 2.14 times greater than that for import prices. These results have significant economic policy implications, such as promoting the expansion of the domestic market and the national content of exports.Research limitations/implicationsIt is tempting to estimate the import demand function for the entire 1993–2019 period since such data is available. But by doing so, the authors would overestimate the propensity to import, given that from 1993 to 2019, the proportion of imports as a percentage of GDP went from 11.37 in 1993 to 29.66 in 2019. Therefore, it makes more sense to estimate the import demand function from 2000 to 2019, a period with a stable proportion of imports to GDP.Originality/valueA high level of imports in developing countries means that much of their aggregate demand is filtered abroad. Therefore, the low impact of its exports on GDP is related to the Mexican economy’s high imports. The authors calculate this relationship with new data and methods.

Income Elasticity of Imports and External Constraint in Periods of Commodity Export Boom: Evidence for the Brazilian Economy

The work proposal includes verifying: i) whether the increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports (IEDI) in Brazil (between 1997q1 and 2018q4 ) can be explained by the increase in exports; ii) whether this could have occurred as a result of the increase in commodity exports; iii) the mechanisms by which the increase in IEDI occurred, whether through final consumption goods or through intermediate goods; iv) whether this should be considered in models that explain economic growth through the performance of the balance of payments (Thirlwall's Law). Then, to test this, we propose estimates a modified version of the multi-sectoral Thirlwall Law (MSTL). The vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology and the vector error correction model (VECM) were used in the estimations. The results showed that the growth of commodity exports has a significant impact on the increase in the IEDI in the analyzed period, which limits the possibilities for the Brazilian economy to reach a balanced growth trajectory with a higher growth rate in the long term.

The Competitiveness of Japanese Strawberry in Hong Kong

This study estimated the linear approximate Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/QUAIDS) of Hong Kong's fresh strawberry import demand by origin. The estimation results showed that the import demand elasticity of Japanese strawberries regarding total strawberry import expenditures has significantly decreased, as well as a significant positive cross-price elasticity of compensated demand regarding the unit price of strawberries from Korea or the USA. Thus, a strategy for strengthening the price competitiveness of Japanese strawberries is required in this market.

New Price-based Bilateral Ad-valorem Equivalent Estimates of Non-tariff Measures

As global applied tariffs continue to decline, and the stock of non-tariff measures continues to increase, applied international trade researchers increasingly seek to evaluate the effects of non-tariff measure (NTM) policies. This, however, requires their quantification – a non-trivial estimation task that needs to be undertaken at a disaggregated level. Estimation of ad-valorem-equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs is generally conducted using one of two approaches: price-based or quantity-based. This study uses a price-based approach to estimate AVEs at the Harmonised System (HS) six-digit level. Bilateral Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) sector-specific AVEs are obtained by aggregating the derived AVE estimates, using HS-GTAP sector concordance and HS six-digit level bilateral trade flows as weights. A key advantage of the price-based estimation method used in this study is that the AVEs can be directly used in the GTAP model, without the need to adjust them based on import-demand elasticities. Derived AVEs estimated in this study are also importer/partner-specific and rely on counts of NTMs rather than simply instances of NTMs. This paper provides GTAP-consistent estimates and aggregation code to facilitate custom GTAP aggregations of AVEs, as well as replicable, open source code that can be altered based on users' assumptions or particular research needs.

Declining long‐run income elasticities and the rise of cyclicality of trade: Evidence from Greece, 1995–2018

AbstractWe estimate export and import demand elasticities of Greece between 1995 and 2018 by establishing cointegrating relationships between exports or imports, income and the real effective exchange rate. When accounting for structural breaks in the series, we observe that the long‐run income elasticities of exports and imports are elastic and decline throughout the sample period. The structural component of the Greek trade growth decreases across time. The cyclical counterpart rises and exhibits high variation. Changes in the real effective exchange rate have the opposite than predicted effects on trade in the postcrisis period for exports and throughout the sample for imports.

Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: an application to the Kazakhstan’s economy

In this paper we analyze whether the long-term economic growth of Kazakhstan is subject to macroeconomic constraints. The balance-of-payments-constrained growth (BPCG) models predict that a country’s growth rate can be approximated through the ratio of growth rates of exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports. We apply the BPCG model to Kazakhstan’s quarterly data—a typical emerging economy with a low trade to GDP ratio. To estimate the trade parameters we use Johansen’s cointegration technique. Vector error correction model is employed to analyze the short-run adjustments of income elasticities. The results demonstrate that the average growth rate estimated by the BPCG hypothesis projects around 2% long-run economic growth for Kazakhstan and current economic growth is aggregate demand constrained.

The Import Demand for Corn in Changing Macroeconomic Circumstances

ABSTRACT This article examines the import behavior of major importers of corn over the period of 1996 to 2016. The article uses an upper-stage import demand equation for corn to estimate countries’ elasticities of import demand with respect to income/GNP, the import price, exchange rate, domestic corn production, and animal inventories. The article also examines whether countries’ corn import demand is sensitive to changes in income and the exchange rate during macroeconomic downturns, specifically when both nominal GNP falls and the currency depreciates. The results show greater import demand responsiveness in periods of macroeconomic stability, as opposed to downturns.

Export structure, import demand elasticity and export stability

AbstractThis paper optimises the definition and measurement method of export stability and analyses the impact of export structure on export stability. The main results show that (1) an increase in the export share appears to reduce the export stability of goods, by changing the importer's elasticity of import demand; (2) exporters can reduce the impact of export structure on the export stability of goods by increasing the technical complexity of export products, improving the trade freedom level and signing free trade agreements (FTA) with importers; (3) export share has a negative impact on the export stability of services; and (4) the development of intra‐industry trade (IIT) in services and the digitisation of services can reduce the impact of export structure on the export stability of services. The results can provide a reference for the management of export instability against the background of export specialisation.

An econometric investigation of EU's import demand for fresh potato: a source differentiated analysis focusing on Egypt

PurposeA better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticity of import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU's demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigate demand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU's. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers were calculated and compared.FindingsThe empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, the investigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price of Egyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested.Research limitations/implicationsDue to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data on quantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for considering seasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behavior of EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin.Originality/valueThe study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze import demand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS, Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitability and performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria.

Import demand elasticities based on quantity data: Theory and evidence

AbstractCorrect estimates of import demand elasticities are essential for measuring the gains from trade and predicting the impact of trade policies. We show that estimates of import demand elasticities hinge critically on whether they are derived using trade quantities or trade values, and this difference is due to properties of the estimators. Using partial identification methods, we show theoretically that the upper bound on the set of plausible estimates is lower when using traded quantities, compared to the standard approach using trade values. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed using detailed product‐level data on US imports for the years 1993 to 2006. Our proposed method using traded quantities leads to smaller point estimates of the import demand elasticities for many goods and imply larger gains from trade compared to estimates based on trade values.

Estimation of Import Demand Elasticities, In the BPCG Model and the Import Demand Function (The Case Study of Iran)

In this study, the demand elasticities of import are estimated, with two approaches, the balance of payments constrained growth (BPCG) or Thirlwall model and the import demand function, by using data in Iran during the period 1980 to 2018 and ARDL method.
 According to BPCG model, economic growth is equal to the ratio of export growth to income elasticity of import demand, so it is related to the growth of exports and income elasticity of import demand in the long run.
 Based on this model, if national income increase and the income elasticity of import demand is high, the imports increase, the effect of export growth and consequently economic growth decreases.
 The results showed that in the long run, the income elasticity of import demand in BPCG model isequal to 0.04 and based on the import demand function is 0.34 and the relative price elasticity of import demand (the ratio of import price to domestic price) is -0.52. Therefore, imports in Iran have been more affected by price than income effects.
 Due to the smaller amount of income elasticity of import demand in both models and based on the BPCG model, the greater income elasticity of import demand, reduces the effect of export growth coefficient, it can be concluded that the magnitude of this elasticity has not been a constraint to Iran's economic growth. Given the significant impact of prices on imports, economic planners should focus on increasing the competitiveness of domestic products.

Import Demand Function in India Under the Liberalised Trade Regime

The trade liberalisation policy was initiated in India in the 1980s but executed effectively since the early 1990s. Since then India’s foreign trade embarks on a new road with a rapid expansion of export and import. Over the period, import exceed export. Identifying factors influencing such a significant elevation of import is a relevant issue of research. This study appraises import demand function in India for the liberalised trade regime particularly, for an extended period 1980–2018, and for the post-reform period, 1992–2018. The study identifies domestic income in aggregated and disaggregated level with exchange rate, trade openness and population growth as significant determinants of import demand. The income has a positive impact on import demand, where income elasticity of import demand differs significantly across the aggregate income and its components—consumption, investment and export expenditure. The exchange rate has a negative impact, implies a depreciation of Indian currency decrease import demand. The trade openness causes a rise in import demand both in the long run and in the short run. Population growth also raises import demand. The econometric diagnostics corroborate the fact that the estimated import demand functions are stable and robust. JEL Codes: F10, F14, C22

Import demand elasticities revisited

Import demand elasticities are regularly used to compute trade restrictiveness indices, to transform estimated effects of trade policies into ad-valorem equivalents, or to judge on the prohibitive level of various tariff and non-tariff policy instruments. The fast rising number of negotiations of free trade agreements and the fact that non-tariff measures are at the core of these strongly motivates for an update of the import demand elasticity estimates provided by Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga in 2008 which are based on trade data for the period 1988–2001. Following their GDP function approach, we present import demand elasticities for more than 150 countries and over 5000 products over the period 1996–2014. Countries exhibiting the highest average elasticities belong to the economically biggest countries in their respective regions, while countries with the lowest import demand elasticities are typically small island states. Import-weighted results suggest that especially countries rich in natural resources are facing an inelastic import demand, with the agri-food sector being more price-responsive than the manufacturing sector. Finally, import demand for intermediate goods seems to be more elastic than demand for products destined for final consumption.

Estimation of the income and price elasticity of pharmaceutical import demand in Iran

PurposeInvestigating the import of pharmaceutical products, as one of the essential goods of the country to improve health and medical conditions, is important in accelerating the economic growth and enhancing the welfare of the community. This paper aims to estimate the income and price elasticity of pharmaceutical import demand in Iran.Design/methodology/approachIn this research, the function of Iran's pharmaceutical import demand was estimated and calculated using the co-integration method and error correction techniques with the seasonal data of 2005–2016 to identify factors related to import, as well as relevant price, and income elasticity.FindingsThe research results showed that the price elasticity of Iran's long-term pharmaceutical import demand was 0.04; that is, the rate of pharmaceutical import demanded by Iran was not sensitive to change in relative price. Additionally, the long-term income elasticity of Iran's pharmaceutical demand was 0.69, meaning that an increase in Iran's income did not have a highly positive impact on the volume of Iran's pharmaceutical import.Originality/valueEstimating the function of the demand for pharmaceutical import may pave the way to adopt appropriate economic policies. Furthermore, estimating this function and calculating income and price elasticity is a step toward minimizing government expenditures and can be a great contribution in designing trade policies.