Influence Of El Nino Southern Oscillation Research Articles

Impact of ENSO on Cloud Distribution and Rainfall Variability in Tangerang Regency

A type of climate variation in the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is defined by an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Central and Eastern equatorial areas, which affects the amount of rainfall that falls and increases. In Indonesia, the rainy season typically persists from October to March, whereas the dry season persists from April to September. Research on the influence of ENSO on rainfall has been carried out in several areas, but has not been carried out in the Tangerang area. This study aims to ascertain how the ENSO phenomena affect rainfall fluctuations and cloud distribution in the Regency of Tangerang. The secondary data, which includes information on rainfall, cloud cover, wind direction, and speed, was acquired from BMKG Meteorology Budiarto. In addition, data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) website's Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used. Surface weather analysis and Pearson correlation analysis are the data analysis techniques used. The results presented that based on surface weather study, ENSO events had a consequence on cloud distribution in Tangerang Regency. The clouds lead when the ENSO phenomenon occurs, namely Cumulus and Nimbostratus clouds with a 4-8 octa cloud cover. Meanwhile, the correlation test results show that ENSO influences seasonal and annual rainfall variations in the district of Tangerang. The largest correlation between SOI and annual rainfall occurred in 2015 with a correlation value of r-0.84 (very strong). Meanwhile, the greatest correlation between SOI and seasonal rainfall occurred in July-September with a correlation value of r=0.67 (strong).

Unravelling the Influence of ENSO and SAM Patterns on Skate Growth: The Case of the Shorttail Yellownose Skate in Patagonia, Argentina

ABSTRACTIn recent decades, the growth, physiology and distribution of many elasmobranch species have been altered as a result of environmental changes that affect prey abundance, availability and composition. Consequently, variations in nutrient input during climate events could manifest in the growth of their hard tissues. This study focuses on assessing the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the growth of Shorttail Yellownose skate (Zearaja brevicaudata) in Patagonia, Argentina. To achieve this, vertebrae from 115 Z. brevicaudata specimens were analysed, and growth rings were dated and measured. By using cubic splines with varying flexibility, we constructed three standard chronologies. Generalized additive models (GAMs), the chronology with the best the R‐bar () and expressed population signal (EPS) were employed and values obtained from them linked to annual time series data of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and SAM, considering lags in the biological response. Surprisingly, no significant association was found with the MEI time series. However, a noteworthy positive association emerged between the chronology and the SAM time series lagged by 1 year, suggesting that SAM‐related climatic conditions could delay their transfer into the Patagonian marine ecosystem, subsequently impacting the growth of this ectothermic predator.

Compound Hot and Dry Events in Argentina and Their Connection to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

ABSTRACTThis work studies the simultaneous and sequential occurrence of hot and dry months in the summer season in Argentina, north of 40°S, based on three different databases: meteorological stations, a gridded observational dataset and a reanalysis product. The influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the occurrence of these compound events is specially analysed using a logistic regression model. Monthly maximum temperature and precipitation data are used for the period 1979–2022 in four sub‐regions of Argentina: Northwestern Argentina (NOA), Northeastern Argentina (NEA), Cuyo (central‐western Argentina) and the Pampas (central‐eastern Argentina). Simultaneous hot and dry months and hot months preceded by dry months are the most frequent compound events. The highest frequencies are found in the centre part of the study region and NEA for simultaneous compound events, and in NOA and the Pampas region for sequential ones. In general terms, all datasets show a good representation of the spatio‐temporal variability of hot and dry months. The insights of the influence of ENSO on compound events revealed that La Niña enhances the occurrences of hot and dry months throughout the study region, with the exception of NOA, where El Niño conditions promote the occurrence of these events. Based on logistic regression models, we successfully quantify the relationship between ENSO and hot and dry months and demonstrate that ENSO plays a significant role as a driver of compound hot and dry events in the central region, Cuyo, NEA and a portion of the Pampas. This research contributes to the understanding of compound events in Argentina and how they are influenced by major drivers of climate variability providing useful information for the development of a predictive system for such events.

Fingerprints of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global and regional oceanic chlorophyll-a timeseries (1997–2022)

With the advancement of present-day ocean color satellites, the spatiotemporal variations of oceanic Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton population, can be monitored at regional and global scales. Estimating long-term changes in Chl-a concentration, however, is mainly constrained by the limited availability of ocean color data and the significant influence of climate oscillations like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO on regional and global Chl-a timeseries using two ocean color datasets spanning from September 1997 to December 2022. Our analysis found that global Chl-a concentration exhibits a significant increasing trend over the study period. Most of the increasing trends are detected in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and high-latitudinal regions, including the Southern Ocean. In light-limited regions like the Southern Ocean, enhanced Chl-a concentration shows a strong positive correlation with warming sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, most oceans in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) exhibit decreasing trends, which are highly correlated with warming SST and ENSO phases. Additionally, we identify distinctive fingerprints of four extreme ENSO events: two extreme El Niño events (1997–1998 and 2015–2016) and two triple La Niña events (1998–2001 and 2020–2022) in these timeseries. Furthermore, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the dominant mode of interannual Chl-a variability is associated with an ENSO-like pattern, accounting for about 13 % of the total variability. Intriguingly, this principal mode is highly correlated with the phases of ENSO (R = -0.87) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (R = −0.90) on an interannual scale. This study provides insights into assessing the impacts of ENSO on long-term Chl-a trend estimation.

Dynamic of upwelling variability in southern Indonesia region revealed from satellite data: Role of ENSO and IOD

The Southern Indonesian (SI) region is known for its high-intensity coastal upwelling caused by monsoonal wind. Interannual phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influence upwelling activity in this region. This study analyzed the relationship between upwelling intensity (UIsst) and those variables and their impact on oceanographic features such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration. We used satellite imagery data, including SST from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and chlorophyll-a from MODIS, to analyze the aforementioned issue. To identify the impact of wind patterns on coastal upwelling, we analyzed using zonal wind stress from ERA-5 Data. Quantification of UIsst is defined as the SST gradient between the coastal and open ocean waters. Linear and partial correlation analysis between UIsst with the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) were conducted to see the influence of ENSO and IOD phenomena. Anomaly analysis was also conducted on SST, chlorophyll-a concentration, zonal windstress and UIsst to see how large the values were during the years of the ENSO and IOD events. Upwelling in the SI region typically occurs during southeast monsoon (SEM) periods, starting earlier in the East side (Nusa Tenggara Islands) and moving towards the West side (South Coast of Java). The correlation analysis (both linear and partial) indicates that the IOD has a stronger influence on UIsst in the SI region compared to ENSO, especially during June to October (SEM periods). This finding is confirmed by anomaly analysis, which reveals significant changes in SST, chlorophyll-a concentration, zonal windstress, and UIsst during ENSO and IOD events. The magnitude of the anomalies is generally stronger during IOD events than those observed under ENSO conditions.

Influence of El Niño southern oscillation on precipitation variability in Northeast Thailand

This study investigates the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monthly precipitation anomaly (PPTA) in Northeast Thailand using 30 years (1993–2022) data obtained from 27 weather stations of the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). Pearson correlation analysis elucidates the relationship between ENSO indices and PPTA. Results reveal significant correlations between ENSO indices and PPTA, providing insights into their intricate relationship. La Niña events have a stronger relationship with PPTA than El Niño events, with notable correlations observed.•Strong La Niña phases, PPTA tends to increase across Northeast Thailand when Niño 3, 3.4, and 4 are more strongly negative -0.64, -0.50, and -0.65, respectively. These correlations provide valuable insights into the hydrological influence of ENSO in Thailand.•After the ENSO event, there appears to be a 4–5 month lag period from the impact on PPTA that shows a higher correlation.•Wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analysis dissects the temporal and frequency-specific nature of the relationship between ENSO and PPTA found during the frequency of 2–7 years. These findings underscore the importance of studying regional variations in ENSO impacts for PPTA in Northeast Thailand.

Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): A Bayesian spatio-temporal study.

Seasonal fluctuations in weather are recognized as factors that affect both Aedes (Ae.) aegypti mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, such as dengue fever. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is widely regarded as one of the most impactful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, characterized by the interplay of shifting ocean temperatures, trade wind intensity, and atmospheric pressure, resulting in extensive alterations in climate conditions. In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO and local weather conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of Ae. aegypti infestation index. We collected seasonal entomological survey data of immature forms of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes (Breteau index), as well as data on temperature, rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the period 2008-2018 over the 645 municipalities of the subtropical State of São Paulo (Brazil). We grounded our analytical approach on a Bayesian framework and we used a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to study the relationship between ENSO tracked by ONI, seasonal weather fluctuations and the larval index, while adjusting for population density and wealth inequalities. Our results showed a relevant positive effect for El Niño on the Ae. aegypti larval index. In particular, we found that the number of positive containers would be expected to increase by 1.30-unit (95% Credible Intervals (CI): 1.23 to 1.37) with El Niño events (i.e., ≥ 1°C, moderate to strong) respect to neutral (and weak) events. We also found that seasonal rainfall exceeding 153.12 mm appears to have a notable impact on vector index, leading potentially to the accumulation of ample water in outdoor discarded receptacles, supporting the aquatic phase of mosquito development. Additionally, seasonal temperature above 23.30°C was found positively associated to the larval index. Although the State of São Paulo as a whole has characteristics favourable to proliferation of the vector, there were specific areas with a greater tendency for mosquito infestation, since the most vulnerable areas are predominantly situated in the central and northern regions of the state, with hot spots of abundance in the south, especially during El Niño events. Our findings also indicate that social disparities present in the municipalities contributes to Ae. aegypti proliferation. Considering the anticipated rise in both the frequency and intensity of El Niño events in the forthcoming decades as a consequence of climate change, the urgency to enhance our ability to track and diminish arbovirus outbreaks is crucial.

The influence of climate variability events on the mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the temporal variability of mesoscale eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) over a 29-year period (1993–2021) using satellite altimeters. High-resolution daily sea level anomaly data are considered to identify the mesoscale eddies in the BoB utilizing py-eddy-tracker, an automated eddy detection and tracking method. Wavelet coherence analysis was conducted to find a statistically significant relation between eddy properties and climate indices. The findings indicate that anti-cyclonic eddies are more susceptible to the consequence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than cyclonic eddies. Additionally, the joined impact of ENSO and IOD conceivably alters eddy activities across the BoB, as the second downwelling coastal Kelvin wave (dCKW) were absent. The mesoscale eddies exhibit correlations with climate indicators, suggesting that eddies get stronger during La Niña and negative IOD years and get weaker during El Niño and positive IOD years. This is because La Niña and negative IOD events intensify the second dCKW, while it weakens or becomes completely absent during El Niño and positive IOD years. Random Forest model was used to compare the influence of ENSO and IOD on the forecasting performance of the eddy properties. It was demonstrated that a unique positive IOD (+IOD) negatively affects the forecasting of eddy properties when using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST anomalies. The findings bear importance in verifying and confirming the interactions between the ocean and climate.

Temporal and Spatial Variations in Rainfall Erosivity on Hainan Island and the Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Rainfall erosivity (RE), a pivotal external force driving soil erosion, is impacted by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Studying the spatiotemporal variations in RE and their response to ENSO is essential for regional ecological security. In this study, a daily RE model was identified as a calculation model through an evaluation of model suitability. Daily precipitation data from 1971 to 2020 from 38 meteorological stations on Hainan Island, China, were utilized to calculate the RE. The multivariate ENSO index (MEI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were used as the ENSO characterization indices, and the effects of ENSO on RE were investigated via cross-wavelet analysis and binary and multivariate wavelet coherence analysis. During the whole study period, the average RE of Hainan Island was 15,671.28 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1, with a fluctuating overall upward trend. There were spatial and temporal distribution differences in RE, with temporal concentrations in summer (June–August) and a spatial pattern of decreasing from east to west. During ENSO events, the RE was greater during the El Niño period than during the La Niña period. For the ENSO characterization indices, the MEI, SOI, and ONI showed significant correlations and resonance effects with RE, but there were differences in the time of occurrence, direction of action, and intensity. In addition, the MEI and MEI–ONI affected RE individually or jointly at different time scales. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the influence of ENSO on RE and can provide important insights for the prediction of soil erosion and the development of related coping strategies.

The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau (TP; approximately 27.5–37.5° N, 75.5–105.5° E) is the highest and largest plateau on Earth with a mean elevation of over 4 km. This special geography causes strong surface solar ultraviolet radiation (UV), with potential risks to human and ecosystem health, which is mainly controlled by the local stratospheric ozone concentration. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability on Earth, is characterised by the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and sea level pressure change for the warm-phase El Niño and cold-phase La Niña events. Although some studies have suggested the existence of positive correlation between ENSO and the total column ozone (TCO) over the TP, the mechanism underlying this effect is not fully understood. Here we use the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) merged satellite dataset, the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) dataset and the TOMCAT three-dimensional (3D) offline chemical transport model forced by ERA5 meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over the period 1979–2021 to investigate the influence of ENSO on the TCO over the TP. We find that the El Niño (La Niña) events favour positive (negative) TCO anomalies over the TP from wintertime of its mature phase to springtime of its decaying phase. Through studying the ozone profile, we attribute the positive (negative) TCO anomalies mainly to the increased (decreased) ozone at the 200–70 hPa levels, i.e. in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) regions. Our results suggest that the El Niño events impact the TP TCO via the following potential processes: (1) a negative upper-level geopotential height anomaly associated with El Niño is responsible for a decrease in air column thickness; (2) the thickness decrease modulates reduced tropospheric temperature and thus favours a decrease in the tropopause height (TH); and (3) such a TH decrease tends to induce a change in the relative amounts of ozone-poor tropospheric and ozone-rich stratospheric air in the profile, which increases the partial column ozone in the UTLS and hence corresponds to the TP TCO increase. The La Niña events affect TP TCO in a manner resembling the El Niño events, except with anomalies of opposite sign. This work provides a systematic understanding of the influence of ENSO on ozone over the TP, which has implications for the interannual variability of ozone.

Influence of ENSO and Volcanic Eruptions on Himalayan Jet Latitude

AbstractThe position of the subtropical jet over the Himalayas (Himalayan jet) affects extreme precipitation and heat over Central and South Asia. We examine the influence of two major natural factors‐the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and explosive volcanic eruptions—on Himalayan jet interannual variability during the past millennium using simulations from the Community Earth System Model. We find that both El Niño events and eruptions shift the Himalayan jet equatorward by up to 3°. If an El Niño occurs following an eruption, this enhances the equatorward Himalayan jet shift, while La Niña tends to favor poleward jet migration. Subtropical cooling during El Niño or following eruptions is the primary cause of equatorward Himalayan jet shifts, while poleward shifts are associated with subtropical warming. Consistent across the CMIP6 models over the historical period, our results suggest that both ENSO and eruptions are the key drivers of interannual Himalayan jet variability.

Influence of ENSO and the urban heat island on climate variation in a growing city of the western Mexico

To understand climate change in the local context, it is necessary to analyse three factors in the territories; 1) how temperature and precipitation have varied over time, 2) if there is an association with the natural variation of the planet, for example with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and 3) if the variations could be related to human actions that directly alter the climate, such as gas emissions into the atmosphere and deforestation. Understanding how these three factors interact, what impacts they have caused on the territory and how they will behave in future scenarios, allows us to think about development planning strategies that seek to adapt human communities to future climate conditions. This study addresses climate change in the City of Tepic, analysing the interannual variation of temperature and precipitation, its association with the ENSO phenomenon and the possible relationship with the urban heat island, contrasting two time periods; 1980-1999 and 2000-2018. The results showed a generalised increase of +1 ºC between periods, decrease of precipitation up to -6% the summer months and increase up to +20% the autumn months. The influence of ENSO on temperature variation increased from 10% to 20% in the most recent period, and its influence on precipitation variation decreased from 17% to 8%, respectively. On the other hand, the heat island increased its extension by more than 60% and its intensity by about 8 degrees between the periods analysed. The differences between periods are discussed descriptively in relation to the doubling of the area of urban use, population, atmospheric emissions and the loss of 30% of the forests in the areas adjacent to the city.

The influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 models

Abstract. Ozone in the troposphere is a greenhouse gas and a pollutant; hence, additional understanding of the drivers of tropospheric ozone evolution is essential. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a main climate mode and may contribute to the variations of tropospheric ozone. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty regarding the causal influences of ENSO on tropospheric ozone under a warming environment. Here, we investigated the links between ENSO and tropospheric ozone using Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data over the period 1850–2014. Our results show that ENSO impacts on tropospheric ozone are primarily found over oceans, while the signature of ENSO over continents is largely nonsignificant. Springtime surface ozone is more sensitive to ENSO compared to other seasons. The response of ozone to ENSO may vary depending on specific air pressure levels in the troposphere. These responses are weak in the middle troposphere and are stronger in the upper and lower troposphere. There is high consistency across CMIP6 models in simulating the signature of ENSO on ozone over the lower, middle, and upper troposphere. While the response of tropical tropospheric ozone to ENSO is in agreement with previous works, our results suggest that ENSO impacts on tropospheric ozone over the northern North Pacific, American continent, and the midlatitude regions of the southern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans might be more significant than previously understood.

Northwestern Pacific Oceanic circulation shaped by ENSO

The intricate currents of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, with strong manifestations along the westside rim, connect tropical and subtropical gyres and significantly influence East Asian and global climates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and disrupts this ocean circulation system. However, the spatiotemporal dependence of the impact of ENSO events has yet to be elucidated because of the complexities of both ENSO events and circulation systems, as well as the increased availability of observational data. We thus combined altimeter and drifter observations to demonstrate the distinct tropical and subtropical influences of the circulation system on ENSO diversity. During El Niño years, the North Equatorial Current, North Equatorial Countercurrent, Mindanao Current, Indonesian Throughflow, and the subtropical Kuroshio Current and its Extension region exhibit strengthening, while the tropical Kuroshio Current weakens. The tropical impact is characterized by sea level changes in the warm pool, whereas the subtropical influence is driven by variations in the wind stress curl. The tropical and subtropical influences are amplified during the Centra Pacific El Niño years compared to the Eastern Pacific El Niño years. As the globe warms, these impacts are anticipated to intensify. Thus, strengthening observation systems and refining climate models are essential for understanding and projecting the enhancing influences of ENSO on the Northwest Pacific Oceanic circulation.

Increase in the variability of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to enhanced future ENSO modulation

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land–air interaction. Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future, but their connection still needs further investigation. To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability, this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes, and their relationship, under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models. The results show a high consistency in the simulations, with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future. The higher the emissions scenario, especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5, the greater the increase in variability. Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9% compared to historical levels during 1951–2000, while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%. Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid- and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature. This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations, combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.摘要ENSO是中低纬度地区气候系统的主要驱动因素, 对陆地碳循环有重要影响. 本研究基于10个CMIP6地球系统模式, 分析了不同情景下ENSO变率与中低纬度地区总初级生产力变率的关系. 结果显示, 未来ENSO变率和总初级生产力变率在未来多数模式均显示为增加. 在未来情境下(2051-2100年), 中低纬度地区的总初级生产力变率较历史时期(1951–2000年)增加了30.9%(SSP2-4.5), 58.2%(SSP5-8.5). 进一步分析表明, ENSO主要通过温度影响中低纬度碳通量变率. 这种现象可能归因于总初级生产力对温度的响应增强, 以及ENSO对陆地表面温度的影响.

Influence of El Niño on parameters of the middle and upper atmosphere over Eastern Siberia according to reanalysis and model data in winter

One of the most important climate-forming phenomena in the ocean—atmosphere system is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which manifest themselves with varying intensity in almost all regions of the globe. The central regions of Eurasia are farthest from the tropics of the Pacific Ocean, the regions where ENSO originates. There are different points of view regarding the nature of the ENSO effect on these regions. In the presented work, the influence of ENSO on the upper atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere and, in particular, on the upper atmosphere of Eastern Siberia is estimated using model calculations and reanalysis data. The results of the analysis show that the large-scale structures of the atmospheric response to the ENSO events in the Northern Hemisphere are similar according to modeling and reanalysis, yet the regions of Eastern Siberia are on the periphery of the main signal and there are significant differences in estimated effects from one case of El Niño and La Niña to another. In January, ENSO has the greatest impact on the middle atmosphere of the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Over Eurasia and Eastern Siberia, the atmospheric response to the ENSO events turned out to be weak or absent.

Влияние Эль-Ниньо на параметры средней и верхней атмосферы над Восточной Сибирью по данным реанализа и моделирования в зимний период

One of the most important climate-forming phenomena in the ocean—atmosphere system is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which manifest themselves with varying intensity in almost all regions of the globe. The central regions of Eurasia are farthest from the tropics of the Pacific Ocean, the regions where ENSO originates. There are different points of view regarding the nature of the ENSO effect on these regions. In the presented work, the influence of ENSO on the upper atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere and, in particular, on the upper atmosphere of Eastern Siberia is estimated using model calculations and reanalysis data. The results of the analysis show that the large-scale structures of the atmospheric response to the ENSO events in the Northern Hemisphere are similar according to modeling and reanalysis, yet the regions of Eastern Siberia are on the periphery of the main signal and there are significant differences in estimated effects from one case of El Niño and La Niña to another. In January, ENSO has the greatest impact on the middle atmosphere of the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Over Eurasia and Eastern Siberia, the atmospheric response to the ENSO events turned out to be weak or absent.

Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems

In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not well established. Here, we identify the tropical and extratropical forcings that explain ~75% of area-averaged seasonal variability in CSWA winter precipitation. Tropical forcing comes from the indirect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pathway, the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean precipitation variability. This mode is coupled with ENSO-related Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. A direct ENSO influence on CSWA does not extend beyond its Indian Ocean connection. Extratropical forcing comes from a large-scale mode of internal atmospheric variability. The spatial structure, variability of tropical forcing, and teleconnection with CSWA winter precipitation are skillfully depicted in two seasonal forecasting systems: the fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR). Extratropical forcing’s spatial structure is also produced skillfully in the two modelling systems; however, the representation of its interannual variability and teleconnection requires improvement. While SEAS5 displays skill in representing extratropical forcing influence on CSWA winter precipitation and marginal skill in reproducing interannual variability, SPEAR has negligible ability in both areas. Consequently, these models have limited predictive skills over CSWA in winter. While improvements in representing extratropical forcing may be inherently limited as it arises from internal atmospheric variability, further research is needed to establish its predictability limits fully.

Seasonal Dependence of Recovery From Surface Cooling Induced by Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractThis study investigates the response of surface air temperature (SAT) to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (STVEs), focusing on the seasonal anchoring of SAT recovery, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 climate model outputs. The decrease in SAT was more significant in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. After the STVEs, shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) decreased rapidly and reached a minimum in approximately 6 months, whereas the decrease in SAT lasted for approximately 1 year; thus, the SAT minima lagged behind those of SW. The recovery of SAT from the major minimum SAT after the STVEs occurred in the same seasons, the second boreal autumn and winter. The SAT recovery occurred during the climatologically low solar radiation season after the STVEs. During this season, the decreasing effects of the downward SW (DSRS) by volcanic aerosols could become negligible. The weakening of the decrease in SAT and DSRS had a seasonal cycle in the high‐latitude regions of both hemispheres, which could be a significant factor in the seasonal alignment of returning SATs. Furthermore, the SAT response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was examined using composite analysis based on the initial state of ENSO. The influence of ENSO on surface cooling after the STVE was at least 1/5 that of the STVEs and might exceed that of the STVEs, particularly in moderate STVEs. These results were commonly found in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models.

Causes of Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon among CMIP6 Models

Abstract This study examines the fidelity of 47 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) during the ENSO decaying summer. The response of the SEASM to ENSO shows a large model spread among the models, some of which even simulate opposite signs of SEASM anomalies compared to the observed values. The bad-performance models (BPMs) are therefore selected to be compared with both the good-performance models (GPMs) and observations to explore the possible causes of the deficiency. Results show that in the BPMs, the ENSO-related warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend too far westward in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and they do not dissipate in the El Niño decaying summer in comparison with those in the GPMs and observations, interfering with the effect of ENSO on the SEASM. The slow decay of WEP SST anomalies from the El Niño mature winter to the decaying summer in the BPMs is mainly caused by a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback due to a low sensitivity of convection to local SST anomalies, which is related to the cold bias in climatological SST over this region. On the other hand, from the mature winter to the decaying summer of El Niño, the El Niño–related anomalous eastward current does not reverse to a westward current in the BPMs, which also contributes to the slow decay of WEP SST anomalies via inducing excessively persistent warm zonal advection. Significance Statement We investigate the possible causes of the diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) among 47 CMIP6 models. We find that a plausible reason for the deficiency of some models in simulating the influence of ENSO on the monsoon is that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO are unrealistic in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) in these models. Further diagnoses indicate that the unrealistic WEP SST anomalies are related to the cold bias of the climatological SST, which could lead to a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback and excessively persistent warm zonal advection. The information provided in this study is useful for improving the skill of the climate models in representing the ENSO–SEASM relationship.