El Nino-Southern Oscillation Activity Research Articles

The Interconnection between Climate Cycles and Geohazards in Urban Areas of the Tourist Island of Mallorca, Spain

The island of Mallorca has experienced major interventions and transformations of the territory, with unprecedented urban development related to growing tourism activity. In this paper, we present a spatio-temporal analysis—by using spectral analysis techniques—of climate cycles on the island of Mallorca (Spain) and their correlation with the occurrences of landslides and flash floods. Both geohazards are closely related to wet periods, which are controlled by different, well-known natural cycles: ENSO, the NAO, sunspot, etc. Geostatistical methods are used to map the distribution of rainfall, as well as a spatial representation of the spectral confidence of the different natural cycles, to define the hazardous areas on the island. The cycles with the greatest influence on rainfall in Mallorca are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (5.6 y and 3.5 y), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (7.5 y), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Recorded events of both rockfalls and flash floods exhibit a strong correlation with the climate indices of QBO, ENSO, the NAO, and sunspot activity. This correlation is particularly pronounced with QBO, as this cycle has a higher frequency than the others, and QBO is observed as part of the other cycles in the form of increases and decreases during periods of higher ENSO, NAO, and sunspot values. However, the impact of flash floods is also significant in the southeast part of the island, despite its lower levels of rainfall. The most dangerous episodes are related to ENSO (6.4 y) and the NAO. The validation of the methodology employed is strengthened by incorporating information from the flash flood data, as it offers comprehensive coverage of the entire island, compared to the landslide database, which is confined to the Serra de Tramuntana region. The study reveals that the city of Palma and the municipality of Calvià, as well as the central and eastern urban areas of the island, are the most vulnerable regions to intense rainfall and its consequences.

SST and ENSO activity 282,000 years ago reconstructed from Porites coral in the South China Sea

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most influential climatic phenomenon on an interannual timescale. Studying the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and ENSO events during typical geological periods is helpful for understanding the trends of ENSO activities in the future, especially under the background of global warming. Here we quantitatively reconstructed a 115-year history of SST and ENSO activity around 282 ka during Marine Isotope Stage 8 (MIS8) by using the growth rate of Porites corals from Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. The results show that the average coral growth rate (6.0 ± 1.0 mm/yr (1σ)) around 282 ka was only 56.1% of the modern average value (10.7 ± 0.9 mm/yr; 1937–2014 CE), and the average SST (26.0 ± 0.3 °C (1σ)) was 0.7 ± 0.4 °C and 1.1 ± 0.4 °C lower than that in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1520–1676 CE; 26.7 ± 0.2 °C) and the present (1937–2014; 27.1 ± 0.2 °C), respectively. The reconstructed results show that there was significant ENSO activity with moderate intensity or above at 282 ka, while the frequency of ENSO activity at that time was lower than that of the LIA and the present. This seems to indicate that the frequency of moderate intensity ENSO activity increases with rising SST. Given the current rapid warming, the future trend of ENSO activities deserves close attention.

Diagnosing the Quasi-Equilibrium Response of ENSO Variability under a Range of CO2 Levels

Abstract Several recent studies have highlighted differences in simulated properties of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under transient and equilibrium responses to increasing CO2. However, the reasons behind these disparate responses and the extent to which they are robust to different scales of CO2 forcing remain unclear. In this study, we adopt a climate system model with reduced SST bias in the eastern tropical Pacific and incrementally apply abrupt increases in CO2, analyzing outputs after each simulation reaches quasi-equilibrium with the imposed forcing. The results suggest that ENSO activity under quasi-equilibrium first increases and then decreases with increasing CO2, peaking in simulations with CO2 concentrations similar to the present day. Bjerknes–Jin stability analysis indicates that changes in the ENSO growth rate result primarily from changes in the thermocline feedback and thermodynamic damping terms. While thermodynamic damping increases monotonically with increasing CO2, the positive thermocline feedback varies within the range of internal variability up to twice the preindustrial value of CO2 and then weakens sharply with further increases. The mechanisms behind these changes include weaker mean ocean upwelling and weaker dynamical coupling between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean associated with substantial near-surface freshening at higher levels of CO2. These changes steepen the thermodynamic barrier to mixing between the surface and subsurface, weakening the east–west temperature gradient in the mean state and suppressing variability in the cold tongue. Analysis of similar model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) archive indicates that changes in the Bjerknes–Jin stability index are robust but do not establish a consensus as to the mechanisms behind them. Significance Statement This study investigates how El Niño–Southern Oscillation changes with increasing CO2 forcing by using a global model with improved tropical Pacific climate. The simulations roughly correspond to scenarios in which emissions are reduced to maintain CO2 concentrations at near-constant values over a long period, with levels ranging from about 2/3 to more than 5 times the present-day concentration. Analysis of these simulations suggests that ENSO activity is strongest when CO2 concentrations are similar to the present-day and becomes substantially weaker when CO2 is more than double its present-day value. Reduced ENSO activity with further increases in CO2 is caused by weaker interactions between the atmosphere and the subsurface ocean. Both the amplitude of warm (El Niño) events and the occurrence frequency of warm and cold (La Niña) events decrease as ENSO events become first more difficult to grow and then more difficult to trigger with increasing CO2.

Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

AbstractThe climate of the Pacific Ocean varies on interannual, decadal, and longer timescales. This variability is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), both of which have profound impacts on countries within and well beyond the Pacific. To date, previous studies have only examined a small subset of the possible links between ENSO, its diversity, and the IPO. Here we focus on the statistical relationship between decadal variability in ENSO properties and the IPO, testing the null hypothesis that the IPO arises from random decadal changes in ENSO activity, including ENSO diversity. We use observed sea surface temperature (SST) records since 1920 to investigate how the timing, structure, frequency, duration, and magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events differ between IPO phases. We find that using the relative frequency of El Niño and La Niña events and either the mean event duration or SST magnitude can reproduce up to 60% of the IPO Tripole Index timeseries. While the spatial SST patterns that represent the IPO and ENSO are similar, the IPO is meridionally broader in the central to eastern Pacific, which may be caused by a lagged relationship with low-frequency SST variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, North Pacific SST anomalies of opposite sign to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies is a unique feature of the IPO that cannot be explained by decadal ENSO variability. This suggests a clear IPO and ENSO relationship, but also independence in some of the IPO’s characteristics.

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Abstract In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

Marine ecological effect of typhoon influenced by the frequency-phases of ENSO and anthropogenic activity: the East China Sea example

In coastal regions, typhoons are one of the most frequent natural disasters, and instrumental data indicate that they can greatly boost marine primary productivity. Typhoons' long-term ecological repercussions, however, are still little understood. To investigate the ecological effects of typhoons since the mid-Holocene, we focused on the sediment cores in the East China Sea, with key parameters of organic CN and Bio-Si to reveal the paleo-productivity variation. Over a millennium, the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has had a substantial impact on primary productivity in the southern East China Sea. The primary productivity in the southern East China Sea was risen by humid climate conditions in ∼3.0–2.0 ka and frequent typhoons in 1.5–0 ka. With a millennial period, ENSO frequency has been significantly influencing primary productivity in the southern East China Sea since the mid-Holocene. During 1.5–0 ka, frequent ENSO events have led to more frequent typhoons, which caused terrestrial materials input and water vertically mix in the southern East China Sea, ultimately increasing primary productivity. Particularly on a centennial time scale, ENSO phases determined how much primary productivity was increased, and this magnitude was bigger during the La Niña-like periods than it was during the El Niño-like periods since La Niña is when typhoons occur more frequently. During the Little Ice Age, the cold climate hindered the reproduction of phytoplankton, but increased human activities in Taiwan resulted in more soil erosion and the supply of terrestrial-derived nutrients into the sea, then amplified the typhoon-induced increase in primary productivity. As a result, this stage showed the highest primary productivity since the mid-Holocene. This study reveals that frequent typhoons promote marine primary productivity on centennial-millennial timescales and emphasizes that human activities amplify the ecological effect of typhoons in recent centuries.

Testing heavy rainfall change in Jeju Island, Korea and its linkage to typhoon activity over East Asia during the Holocene

Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of extreme hydrologic events, especially those driven by typhoons over Asia, and their controlling factors is essential to testing and predicting their future changes under global warming. Here, we present a series of direct heavy-rainfall records over the past ca. 10,000 years based on lake sediments from a volcanic cone (Sara Oreum) on Jeju Island, Korea, where orographic amplification of precipitation is dominant and sensitive to present typhoon activity. The reconstructed heavy rainfall index based on the high-resolution elemental ratios (e.g., Ti/Al and Sr/Si) shows clear variability at centennial timescales and is similar to records of coastal flooding events along the southern coast of Korea, typhoon-driven overwash events along the south-western coast of Japan, indicating strong typhoon influence on the heavy rainfall events in Jeju Island during the Holocene. Furthermore, this heavy rainfall-typhoon linkage has been influenced by past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Tropical Pacific, showing time-varying influences. This study suggests that on decadal to multi-centennial timescales, stronger ENSO activity is responsible for eastward shift in the location of typhoon genesis, resulting in more frequent recurving tracks of typhoon and increased landfalls in Korea and Japan, whereas SST affects the intensification rate of typhoon. The heavy rainfall index reconstructed from the volcanic cones of Jeju Island may be used as an indicator of past frequency and track changes of typhoon over highly populated East Asia.

Solar and ENSO activity affecting Late Holocene carbon accumulation rates in peatlands from Northeast Asia: Evidence from periodic signal analysis

Peatlands are well developed in large areas of Northeast Asia, where changes in Late Holocene carbon accumulation rate (CAR) have played an important role in influencing the regional carbon cycle. However, the driving mechanisms and periodic signals of these important peatlands have rarely been investigated. The Zhibian peatland is a subalpine peatland, which has a continuous CAR record covering the entire Late Holocene. This peatland is located in Northeast Asia, its carbon dynamics were directly influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon. This peatland recorded direct interactions between the CAR dynamics, solar and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. Thus, we selected this peatland as a representative peatland for Northeast Asia. We used spectrum analyses and wavelet analyses to study the periodic signals of CAR dynamics, total solar irradiance (TSI), mean annual precipitation (Pann) and ENSO activity during the Late Holocene. The correlation relationships between the above parameters were investigated to explore the driving mechanisms for CAR dynamics in Northeast Asia peatlands. Our analyses indicate that CAR dynamics show 88a, 210a and 1000a periodicity over the Late Holocene. The potential driving factors, such as the Pann, ENSO and TSI, also indicate similar periodic signals. These relationships further indicate that the Pann, ENSO and TSI played an important role in controlling the CAR variations of Northeast Asia peatlands. Wavelet analyses results suggest that the CAR, Pann and TSI negatively corresponded with the ENSO variations. From the relationship model between these parameters, we concluded that strong solar activity resulted in fewer ENSO events and more precipitation in Northeast Asia. Wet conditions contributed to higher CAR, and vice versa.

ENSO-related centennial and millennial-scale hydroclimate changes recorded from Lake Xiaolongchi in arid Central Asia over the past 8000 years

Climate changes on different timescales and their mechanisms are of great importance in arid Central Asia (ACA). However, the contribution of El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Holocene hydroclimate in ACA on centennial and millennial timescales is limited by records with good age control and high temporal resolution. Here, we present high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning data of a sediment core from Lake Xiaolongchi in central Tianshan Mountains to reconstruct hydroclimate changes in ACA over the last 8000 years. Our construction exhibits that the climate was dry from 8000 to 5500 cal year BP and wet from 5500 to 0 cal year BP, which resembles ENSO patterns on a millennial timescale. On the centennial timescale, hydroclimate fluctuations with eight wet periods, seven dry periods, and a shift period have a significant 800-year periodicity, coincident with periodic ENSO variance. The positive relationship between 800-year band-pass filtered hydroclimate and ENSO indicates that wet (dry) climate conditions correspond to increased (reduced) ENSO activity. We propose that the spatial pattern of “wet (dry) southern China and ACA, and dry (wet) northern China” during the El Niño-like (La Niña-like) condition may exist during the Holocene on millennial to centennial timescales.

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

AbstractLong‐term hydroclimate change can provide reliable reference for water resources management in Central Asia. However, only a few palaeohydrological records exist in Tajikistan. To obtain a long‐term perspective on hydrological changes in Tajikistan, we developed, for the first time, a streamflow reconstruction from September of the previous year to June of the current one in the Kafirnigan River basin, based on Juniperus semiglobosa tree‐ring width indices from the Iskanderkul area in northern Tajikistan. The streamflow reconstruction explains 40% of the actual streamflow variance during the period 1939–1993. Spatial correlation analyses with gridded precipitation data indicate that our streamflow reconstruction contains a strong regional hydroclimatic signal for southern Central Asia. The high and low intervals of our streamflow reconstruction are closely related to the interdecadal variations of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean, indicate the existence of remarkable 11‐, 5.6–5.7‐, 4.3‐, 2.6‐, 2.3‐ and 2.0‐year cycles, and suggest a relationship between southern Central Asian streamflow variations and ENSO activity.

Hydrodynamic variations and human activities have influenced sediment fluxes in the pearl river delta since the late holocene

Climate change and human activity can both exert a role in the river discharge and sediment load in river deltas when the sea level remains relatively stable. The Pearl River Delta constitutes the metropolitan region of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area, and its evolution in the past and future impacts the sustainable development of this region. In this manuscript, a core situated in the northern South China Sea, adjacent to Qiao Island of Zhuhai city in the Pearl River Delta, was selected to investigate the hydrodynamic variation influenced by tropical processes and the sediment flux imposed by human activities. Using paleosecular variations (PSVs) in geomagnetic field correlations constrained by seven radiocarbon ages, an ∼2.5 kyr chronology was provided for core sediments ∼2.8 m in length. The magnetic fabric results suggest that deposition was influenced by the two types of hydrodynamic-weak energy modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and higher energy regulated by high-frequency tropical storms. The cyclic variations in the degree of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (P) indicate two periodic changes at approximately 300 and 100 years, which were forced by ENSO activity, while the ratio of lineation with foliation (q value) implies a higher energy flow period of 1.3–1.9 kyr, arising from strong tropical storms. Moreover, the high saturation remanence (SIRM) introduces more sediment flux, which is impacted by growing human activity during the period of 1.0–1.6 kyr.

Centennial-scale variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon during the middle to late Holocene and its links with ENSO activity

Relatively little is known about the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the centennial timescale during the Holocene. We present a well-dated high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning record from a sediment core from Lake Qionghai on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, which reveals the impact of ENSO activity on ISM variability. The results indicate a gradual drying of the regional climate on the sub-orbital timescale, which is in broad agreement with ISM changes controlled by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Additionally, centennial-scale drought events occurred at around 6230–5740, 4620–4250, 3820–3540, 3210–2440, 2180–1320, and 1000–615 cal yr B.P. and are consistent with enhanced ENSO activity, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related drought events in the Holocene. Both ISM oscillations and ENSO variability show significant 350-yr, 500-yr, and 800-yr cyclicities, and there is a highly significant negative relationship between the ISM and ENSO at these cyclicities, indicating that a weak ISM was related to increased ENSO intensity, and vice versa. Our findings provide evidence for the modulation of ISM intensity by ENSO variability on the centennial timescale during the Holocene.

Abrupt Increase in ENSO Variability at 700 CE Triggered by Solar Activity

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability affecting global weather and climate. However, limited observational records hinder our understanding of the evolution of natural ENSO variability and its driving mechanisms. In this study, ENSO variations from 665 to 749 CE (Common Era) were investigated using monthly sea surface temperature (SST) records of the northern South China Sea derived from coral strontium to calcium ratios of sub‐fossil Porites obtained at the Xisha Islands. The results suggested the existence of cold conditions in this period relative to the twentieth century. No change in SST seasonality for the CE was found that is in agreement with the orbitally controlled insolation seasonality at that time. ENSO variability during 665–749 CE was enhanced by 39% than that during 1980–2014 CE and exhibited fluctuations. A persistent dampened ENSO variability with frequent El Niño events from 665 to 700 CE was followed by a rapid increase in variability to a level double that of the present. The frequency of La Niña events increased during this time. The abrupt transformation of ENSO activity at 700 CE was attributed to the increased natural radiative forcing induced by intense solar irradiance and weak volcanism. This paper demonstrates that ENSO variability can be influenced by external forcings, such as changes in solar and volcanic activity, and not only by the internal dynamics of the climate system.

Hydroclimate change and its controlling factors during the middle to late Holocene and possible 3.7-ka climatic shift over East Asia

AbstractThe history of past hydroclimatic extreme events, essential information for predicting future changes, is preserved in fluvial sediments. Here, we reconstruct changes in decadal-scale extreme flooding events over the period 7700–1700 cal yr BP from floodplain sediments in the middle reach of the Nakdong River, Korea, based on lithogenic elemental ratios (e.g., Zr/Ti and Sr/Si). For example, Nakdong extreme flooding (NEF) events frequently occurred at 7700, 7200, 6000, 5000, 3800, 3200, 2900, 2600, 2300, 2000, and 1700 cal yr BP, and were associated with higher sea-surface temperatures and strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. Notably, we found a significant change in the frequency of extreme events ca. 3700 cal yr BP over East Asia. The hydroclimate fluctuated with dominant periodicities of 950 and 540 years in 7700–3700 cal yr BP and shorter centennial to decadal cycles (320, 110–120, and 60–75 years) in 3700–1700 cal yr BP. This 3.7-ka climatic shift is consistent with a marked southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, intensified ENSO activity, increased frequency of recurving typhoons, and deep-ocean circulation changes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, demonstrating the urgent need for investigating the critical role of past deep-water circulation in hydroclimate changes.

River flooding response to ENSO-related monsoon precipitation: Evidence from late Holocene core sediments in the Jianghan Plain

In the Jianghan Plain, known as the province of thousands of lakes, monsoon precipitation-induced floods carrying large amounts of sediments can shape the depositional landscape, particularly after frequent river flooding. Therefore, the sediments document abundant information on climate change and its interaction with the fluviolacustrine system and paleoflooding. To date, late Holocene paleoflood records are limited, as continuous paleoflood archives are scarce. Here, using grain size end-members and sensitive components in combination with element records from the JH001 sediment core in the Jianghan Plain, nine continuous paleoflood regimes were identified during 3400–3000, 2750–2550, 2050–1820, 1800–1650, 1550–1500, 1350–1100, 1050–1000, 800–750, and 620–600 cal yr BP, respectively. Exploration of the climatic driving factors on flood regimes indicated a good agreement among paleoflood regimes and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related hydrological records in the Middle Yangtze Valley (MYV) and reconstructed ENSO records. This suggests that ENSO is the dominant influence on flood occurrence in the Jianghan Plain. Strong ENSO activity exerted a southward shift in the subtropical high in the western Pacific and produced a long-lasting rainbelt in the mid-lower Yangtze Valley, which induced the occurrence of floods in the Jianghan Plain. The evolution pattern of sedimentary environment demonstrated that the floods led to river overflow and overbank expansion, even causing the rivers to divert and bifurcate. The overflow channels carried and deposited silt sediments in the floodplain, which shaped the specific alluvial-lacustrine landscape of the Jianghan Plain. Our results indicate that the grain size of core sediments is sensitive to the occurrence of paleofloods, and that ENSO-related paleofloods significantly influenced the fluviolacustrine sedimentary evolution. These findings are highly useful for regional flood planning and environmental protection in the eastern Jianghan Plain in the context of global warming.

The Recent Droughts of 2019/20 in Southern Africa and Its Teleconnection with ENSO Events

This study is motivated to highlight the variability of recent drought hotspots in the region of southern Africa in terms of the seasonal and annual rainfall regimes and their possible spatial linkage with the 1950-2020 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some evidence is found on possible links between the occurrence of drought hotspots in the region in terms of seasonal and mean annual runoff and warm ENSO events. This was revealed by the existence of a strong and nearly-strong positive linear correlation between Seasonal and annual rainfall depths and the warm seasonal ENSO indices explained by the southern oscillation index represented by the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies data obtained from the National Oceanographic and Aeronautics Administration (NOAA). Considering the entire southern African region, 41% of the surface areas exhibit moderate (r > 0.25) and strong (r > 0.5) correlation coefficients in terms of the December to February quarter rainfall and ENSO indices. Above 50% confidence interval in the correlation between seasonal rainfall and ENSO during DJF quarters is found in 74% of the surface area of the region of southern Africa. The high confidence interval of the positive correlation coefficients is an indication that substantial variance of precipitation during ENSO years is accounted for by the warm ENSO events. The areas with pronounced lower rainfalls and droughts associated with ENSO activity in the region include larger and some pockets of various countries in southern Africa, including but not limited to Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Mozambique. The recent drought events of 2019/2020, and previously in 2015/16 in this region with wider regional impacts can be explained by the ENSO phenomena.

Coral perspective on temperature seasonality and interannual variability in the northern South China Sea during the Roman Warm Period

Few reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) have focused on seasonal and interannual variability, two major components of the global climate system, due to the limited temporal resolution of proxies. This study presents a combined 228-year-long, monthly resolved strontium to calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) record covering the period of 2070–1740 a BP (years before 1950 CE (Common Era)) extracted from three U-series-based sub-fossil Porites corals located on the Xisha Islands, northern South China Sea (SCS). The composite time series allowed for accurate assessment of the natural range of SST variations during snapshots of the Roman Warm Period (RWP). Reconstructed SST revealed that the RWP was characterized by cooler conditions compared with the 20th century, consistent with climatic variations in the western Pacific and East Asia. The amplitude of SST seasonality was within the modern range, except for a lower value at 1980–1928 a BP. Interannual variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity was enhanced by 39% relative to 1980–2014 CE. The results of the sliding window demonstrate that ENSO variability persistently strengthened during 2070–2010 a BP, followed by an overall fluctuating attenuation during 1980–1928 a BP. Then, the trends of rising first before descending twice during 1852–1800 a BP appeared. Furthermore, ENSO activity played a leading role in steering short-term changes in SST seasonality in the northern SCS, manifested as stronger ENSO activity with more frequent El Niño events and decreased SST seasonality. Considering that the frequency of extreme ENSO events may strengthen in the future under global warming, the climate in the northern SCS might become more variable and complex.

Evidence of ENSO signals in a stalagmite-based Asian monsoon record during the medieval warm period

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth's dominant interannual climate variability mode, but knowledge about its relationship with the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the medieval warm period (MWP) is limited, hampering predictions of ASM changes. Here, we present a high-resolution and annually layered stalagmite δ 18 O record covering most of the MWP (from 1050 to 665 yr B.P.) from Xiaoshanyan Cave, which is located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in Central China. We combined 230 Th dates and annual-layer counting to derive an age model for the δ 18 O record (an ASM proxy) and identified a peak-trough-peak structure in the ASM across the MWP, which has also been found in other Chinese proxy records. The weak monsoonal interval (900–750 yr B.P.) corresponds to the Oort minimum period, indicating that the ASM could have been impacted by centennial-scale solar activity through air-sea amplifications. On the multidecadal timescale, a remarkable anti-phased relationship was observed between our record (tuned 7 yr older for synchronization) and the historically documented dry-wet record. This suggests that calcite δ 18 O values should reflect the relative contributions of two different water vapour sources from tropical and subtropical oceans rather than the amount of precipitation on short timescales. Comparison of the data further showed that both our δ 18 O record and the dry-wet index strongly correlate with the frequency and amplitude of ~30-yr ENSO cycles, indicating that the ASM sensitively responded to ENSO activity during the MWP. We thus confirmed that ENSO modulated the hydroclimate in the monsoonal regions of China during the MWP, which is also the case in the current warm period. • A inter-annual scale East Asian summer monsoon variability was reconstructed by an annually laminated stalagmite. • A peak-trough-peak structure was observed in the Medieval Warm Period. • Solar activity and ocean–atmosphere coupling impact the weak monsoon trough. • Both our δ 18 O record and the dry-wet index strongly correlate with ~30-yr ENSO cycles. • Calcite δ 18 O reflects the relative contributions of different water vapour sources on the short timescale.

High ENSO sensitivity in tree rings from a northern population of Polylepis tarapacana in the Peruvian Andes

Polylepis tarapacana is the highest-elevation tree species worldwide growing between 4000 and 5000 m a.s.l. along the South American Altiplano. P. tarapacana is adapted to live in harsh conditions and has been widely used for drought and precipitation tree-ring based reconstructions. Here, we present a 400-year tree-ring width (TRW) chronology located in southern Peru (17ºS; 69ºW) at the northernmost limit of P. tarapacana tree species distribution. The objectives of this study are to assess tree growth sensitivity of a northern P. tarapacana population to (1) precipitation, temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability; (2) to compare its growth variability and ENSO sensitivity with southern P. tarapacana forests. Our results showed that this TRW record is highly sensitive to the prior summer season (Nov-Jan) precipitation (i.e. positive correlation) when the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) reaches its maximum intensity in this region. We also found a positive relationship with current year temperature that suggests that radial growth may be enhanced by warm, less cloudy, conditions during the year of formation. A strong positive relationship was found between el Niño 3.4 and tree growth variability during the current growing season, but negative during the previous growth period. Growth variability in our northern study site was in agreement with other populations that represent almost the full range of P. tarapacana latitudinal distribution (~ 18ºS to 23ºS). Towards the south of the P. tarapacana TRW network there was a decrease in the strength of the agreement of growth variability with our site,with the exception of higher correlation with the two southeastern sites. Similarly, the TRW chronologies recorded higher sensitivity to ENSO influences in the north and southeastern locations, which are wetter, than the drier southwestern sites . These patterns hold for the entire period, as well as for periods of high and low ENSO activity. Overall, P. tarapacana tree growth at the north of its distribution is mostly influenced by prior year moisture availability and current year temperature that are linked to large-scale climate patterns such as the SASM and ENSO, respectively.

The Combined Effects of ENSO and Solar Activity on Mid-Winter Precipitation Anomalies Over Southern China

Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 11-years solar cycle had been identified as important factors that may influence the wintertime southern China precipitation (SCP). However, the interactions between these two factors remain less noticed. In this study, the combined effects of the ENSO and the solar activity on mid-winter (January) SCP are investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Results suggest that both the ENSO and the solar activity are positively correlated with the SCP, although exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Under different combinations of the ENSO and solar phases, the SCP anomalies show superposition of these two factors to some extent. Generally, the ENSO-related SCP anomalies tend to be enhanced (disturbed) when the ENSO and the solar activity are in-phase (out-of-phase). But this solar modulation effect appears more clear and significant under cold ENSO (cENSO) phase rather than under warm ENSO (wENSO) phase. Further analysis suggests, during the wENSO phase, solar influences on the Northern Hemisphere circulation are generally weak with little significance. In contrast, during the cENSO phase, the solar effect resembles the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation but with an evident zonal asymmetric component. Its manifestation over the Asia-Pacific domain features by negative geopotential height anomaly over the West Asia and positive geopotential height anomaly over the East Asian coast, a pattern that is favorable for the SCP, thus causing a significant solar modulation on the cENSO-related precipitation anomalies. Further, the potential physical causes of solar effects on circulation are also discussed. Our results highlight the importance of considering solar cycle phase when ENSO is used to predict the East Asian winter climate.