Efficient Investment Decisions Research Articles

Portfolio Optimization Strategies: New Approaches Based on Machine Learning Forecasting

This study provides an in-depth discussion and comprehensive review of the latest applications of machine learning techniques in the field of portfolio optimization. The article begins with an overview of traditional portfolio optimization theory and its limitations, and then focuses on how machine learning predictive models, which have flourished in recent years, can provide new perspectives and tools for solving the problems of non-linearity, dynamics and uncertainty in investment decision-making. This paper provides a detailed overview of the application practices of various machine learning algorithms (e.g., deep learning, reinforcement learning, integrated learning, etc.) in the areas of asset return prediction, risk assessment, and optimal weight allocation, and analyses their advantages and challenges compared to traditional methods. The analysis of relevant research cases reveals the significant effect of machine learning predictions in increasing expected portfolio returns, reducing risk exposure, and achieving effective diversification. The study also explores possible future trends and potential research directions for machine learning in portfolio optimization, highlighting the importance of combining domain knowledge with big data-driven intelligent investment decisions. This review aims to provide financial scholars and practitioners with a new way of thinking about portfolio optimization, and to promote the combination of theoretical research and practical operation in the fields of financial engineering and investment management, so as to achieve more accurate and efficient investment decisions.

Pengaruh Mediasi Efesiensi Investasi pada Hubungan Corporate Governance dan Kinerja Keuangan BUMN di Indonesia Periode Sebelum Pandemi

Implementation of Corporate Governance (CG) is closely related to efficient investment decisions to drive financial performance, but several State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Indonesia are indicated to have inefficient investments. This study aims to examine the impact of CG on financial performance, and the role of investment efficiency as a mediation between CG and financial performance. The sample comprises 10 SOEs listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2013-2019 period since the publication of the SOE regulations regarding CG assessment indicators in 2012. The analysis method uses panel data regression analysis. The results of the study found that the CG index reduced financial performance and the level of investment efficiency. These results do not confirm the resource-based theory because a high CG score results in inefficient investment (over/under investment) and lowers financial performance. In addition, investment efficiency is not able to mediate the effect of CG on financial performance due to the different industrial sectors in the sample having different investment needs. The implication of this research is the need to expand investment space for companies as well as monitor to implement various management policies by the Ministry of SOEs

Exploring the Application of Quadratic Programming Within the Markowitz Economic Model: An Empirical Analysis of the Chinese Real Estate Market

This paper introduces an innovative approach by incorporating quadratic programming (QP) into the Markowitz portfolio optimization framework. The central objective of our study is to explore the integration of QP as a solution scheme for portfolio optimization problems with constraints, particularly in the context of the dynamic and complex Chinese real estate market.By meticulously formulating rigorous mathematical models and implementing systematic procedures, we empirically assess the effectiveness and applicability of QP within the Markowitz portfolio model. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of portfolio optimization by shedding light on how QP can aid investors in optimizing their portfolios in the intricacies of the Chinese real estate market. We provide valuable advice for investors, enabling them to make more informed and efficient investment decisions, thereby reducing risk and maximizing returns. This study serves as a valuable reference for academics, practitioners, and policymakers seeking to navigate the challenging landscape of the Chinese real estate market.

Optimal Accounting Rules, Private Benefits of Control, and Efficient Liquidation

We study optimal accounting rules that alleviate inefficiencies caused by managerial private benefits. Accounting signals generated by the accounting rules guide the continuation decision at an interim project stage. The entrepreneur enjoys private benefits from continuation, which may induce inefficient decisions. The optimal accounting rule is characterized by a threshold, with a higher threshold representing more conservative accounting. The first-best is achieved under small private benefits. As private benefits increase, the first-best eventually is not achievable and more informative bad news is required for the manager to terminate, resulting in less conservative accounting rules. Therefore, more conservative accounting rules are associated with more efficient investment decisions. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.03087 .

Star CEOs and investment efficiency: Evidence from China

This study investigates whether star chief executive officers (CEOs) make more efficient investment decisions after winning a prestigious media award. Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms, we find that CEO awards significantly reduce the probability of corporate overinvestment and mitigate the magnitude of investment inefficiency; this effect is more pronounced for CEOs with high monetary compensation and in firms with weak internal governance and loose external monitoring. Additional evidence shows that star CEOs attract more media coverage than matched CEOs after winning awards, and CEO awards improve investment efficiency by reducing information asymmetry and enhancing reputation incentives. Collectively, our findings suggest that media-granted CEO awards encourage winning CEOs to boost their investment efficiency by reducing overinvestment.

Powerful CEOs and investment efficiency

This study investigates whether chief executive officers (CEOs) with excessive power make efficient investment decisions. We employ a comprehensive measure of CEO power and find that highly powerful CEOs tend to reduce investment efficiency by increasing overinvestment. This inefficiency is more pronounced with strong information asymmetry, agency problems, and product market competition. We also find that a firm's operation complexity and the presence of effective internal and external governance can help mitigate investment inefficiency; however, when most independent directors are co-opted or powerful CEOs are recruited from outside the firm, the investment inefficiency deteriorates. Moreover, inefficiency and overinvestment tend to increase with CEO tenure, the level of CEO power, and financial constraints faced by the firm. These findings shed light on the complex dynamics between CEO power, investment decisions, and various factors influencing their effectiveness.

No place like home: Do local CEOs invest in labor more efficiently?

AbstractResearch question/issueThis study investigates whether local CEOs make more efficient investment decisions in labor.Research findings/insightsWe find that firms hiring local CEOs are associated with lower deviations of labor investment from the level justified by economic fundamentals, that is, higher labor investment efficiency. More importantly, we explore the role of information advantage, corporate governance, and CEO cultural background in shaping the relationship. We find the effect of CEO locality is more pronounced when firms have higher levels of local business integration, poorer corporate governance, and higher agency costs. Moreover, the impact of CEO locality is stronger when CEOs' hometowns have stronger unselfishness culture, patriotism culture, and Confucian culture. Our results are robust to a battery of endogeneity tests and robustness checks.Theoretical/academic implicationsOur study reveals that CEO locality, as one of the idiosyncratic top executive styles, can hinder managers from myopic behavior by investing more efficiently in labor, as a key factor of production and a major internal stakeholder, for a firm's success.Practitioner/policy implicationsGiven human capital is considered the primary source of firms' competitive advantage, our study provides useful insights and managerial implications for firms to consider the impact of the idiosyncratic top executive styles as one of the noncontractual factors on firms' employment decisions.

Do the Choices of Family Business CEOs Affect Investment Decisions?

Abstract Family firms are a common organizational form in emerging economies. Almost 80% of firms are controlled by families and 40% of them are controlled by founder CEOs in Taiwan. Thus, family founders play an important role in complex financial decisions. In addition, the average age of family CEOs is around 60 years old, so now is a big time for the succeeding generation to make the right decisions leading to a successful family business. However, prior studies have contradictory conclusions about the relationship between family firms and investment policies. The sample is based on data from Taiwan family firms for whom the data was manually collected on annul reporting over a period of 2009-2015. Unlike the expectation of the entrenchment effect, we find that both family founder and family descendant CEOs have a propensity to undertake efficient investment decisions, which supports the socioemotional wealth perspective. JEL classification numbers: G11, D61, J12. Keywords: Investment efficiency, Over-investment, Family Founder, Family Descendants.

Investment, inflation, and the role of internal information systems as a transmission channel

We examine whether the quality of firms' internal information systems influences the relation between inflation shocks and corporate investment, as posited by imperfect information models. Inconsistent with RBC models’ prediction that nominal variables (e.g., inflation) do not affect real variables (e.g., corporate investment) but consistent with the presence of information frictions, we first document a positive relation between inflation shocks and firm-level investment. Next, we show that higher internal information system quality, measured through responses to the World Management Survey, mitigates the positive relation between inflation shocks and firm-level investment. This result suggests that internal information quality serves as a channel through which aggregate-level nominal variables affect firm-level real variables. We then document that firms with higher internal information system quality make relatively more efficient investment decisions following inflation shocks. Our inferences are robust to using the 8th EU Company Law Directive as a shock to internal information system quality and to several additional tests.

Family ownership and capital structure: evidence from ASEAN countries

PurposeThis paper examines the capital structure decisions of family firms in Southeast Asian (ASEAN) countries, considering the moderating effects of various firm-level and country-level factors.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply various panel data models to analyze the data of listed firms in six ASEAN countries over the period of 2007–2017.FindingsThe authors find that family firms tend to use more debt, particularly short-term debt, than non-family firms, which is explained by family owners' concern about the risk of losing control. The authors further document that family firms would use more debt when they have lower ownership concentration, have more family members on the board of directors and are young firms. The authors also find that the impact of family ownership on capital structure is moderated by the level of investors' legal protection of a country.Originality/valueThis study, for the first time, provides comprehensive analyses of the financing decisions of family firms in ASEAN using a unique hand-collected dataset, which highlights that regional culture and market conditions can shape family firms' financing decisions. The authors also manage to mitigate the endogeneity issues that pervade most research on family firms. In addition, this research further explores the heterogeneous impacts of family control on capital structure given different levels of board involvement, firm age, ownership concentration, and most importantly, institutional differences. Such insights provide useful information for prospective investors as well as regulators to make more efficient investment and legislative decisions.

Enhancement in a firm's information environment via options trading and the efficiency of corporate investment

We examine the association between enhancement in a firm's information environment via options trading and firm investment efficiency. Investment inefficiency is partly driven by information asymmetries between firm managers and capital providers, aggravating moral hazard concerns. We test whether enhancement in a firm's information environment through higher volumes of options trading (including a natural experiment involving exogenous shocks via the Penny Pilot Program) is positively related to more efficient firm investment decisions. Our results confirm that enhanced informational efficiency via higher volumes of options trading is positively related to improvements in firm-level investment efficiency. Our findings are in line with the enhancement in the information environment stemming from options trading reducing agency and moral hazard concerns (an agency channel) and are not driven by alternative explanations such as managerial learning from informed traders or a lower cost of capital. Overall, our findings suggest that an enhanced information environment via more options trading benefits firms’ investment decisions.

Managerial litigation risk and corporate investment efficiency: Evidence from universal demand laws

AbstractWe examine the effect of managerial litigation risk on corporate investment efficiency. Exploiting the staggered adoption of universal demand (UD) laws in the United States and employing a stacked regression approach, we find that the exogenous reduction in litigation risk induced by UD laws leads to lower investment efficiency. Our results are robust to the use of alternative partitioning variables and variations in sample composition. We also find that the decrease in investment sensitivity and excessive risk‐taking are channels through which the reduced litigation rights lead to less efficient investments. Our results support the notion that weakened shareholder litigation rights lead to more severe agency conflicts and thus less efficient investment decisions.

Comparative Economic and Experimental Assessment of Air Source Heat Pump and Gas-fired boiler: A Case Study from Turkey

Since sustainability has become a major concern in the construction industry, making economically efficient investment decisions in energy conservation are needed to minimize energy consumption for space heating and cooling. Although Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) systems are used to meet buildings’ heating and cooling demands worldwide, high initial setup costs limit the widespread use of these systems. This paper presents comparative assessment of ASHP system versus conventional gas-fired boiler system for a real commercial building with a floor area of 2500 m2 in Istanbul, Turkey. The key performance variable, Coefficient of Performance (COP), of the ASHP system was experimentally evaluated. The experimental results revealed that the system’s COP ranged from 3.22 to 4.32, while the outside temperature ranged from 4.8 to 18.6 °C and the supply water temperature ranged from 32.2 to 36.2 °C. Moreover, the economic analysis results showed that despite the high initial cost, ASHP systems are cost competitive against gas-fired boiler in Turkey. ASHP system could reduce the present value of total Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) by up to 26.4% (47,865 USD) compared to the conventional gas-fired boiler system because it can dramatically reduce the energy consumption per year

Ex-auditor executives and investment efficiency: evidence from Indonesia

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between the presence of ex-auditor chief executive officers (CEOs) and ex-auditor chief financial officers (CFOs) with the company's investment efficiency decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use non-financial Indonesian listed firms, and the authors obtain 2,763 firm-year observations of ex-auditor CEOs and 2,708 firm-year observations of ex-auditor CFOs from 2010–2019.FindingsThe results show that ex-auditor CEOs tend to make efficient investment decisions, while ex-auditor CFOs do not. However, when a company has a CEO and a CFO who are both former auditors, there is a significantly stronger positive relationship with investment efficiency. These results indicate that working experience as an auditor can optimally facilitate the decision regarding investment level. Moreover, the results suggest that the CEO, as top management, has more influence in providing the company's final investment decisions, whereas the CFO plays a role in providing investment recommendations to the CEO. The results of this study are consistent with the use of alternative measurements and the robustness test of Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM).Practical implicationsThe results of this study can contribute as material for consideration by company management in selecting company organs with an auditor background to secure efficient investment.Originality/valueThis study specifically examines the experience, values, and particular characteristics of top management with an auditor background on the company's strategic decisions. This study is also based on the phenomenon that the number of ex-auditor CEOs and CFOs in Indonesia tends to increase every year.

The effects of chief executive officer gender on firm labor investment efficiency

This study examines the relationship between the gender of the chief executive officer (CEO) and a firm's labor investment efficiency. It evaluates whether firms led by a female CEO engage in more efficient labor-related investment decisions than those led by a male CEO. Using U.S. public companies as samples, we found that female CEOs make better employment-based investments by inhibiting a firm's overinvestment in labor. Furthermore, the results revealed that firms with a female CEO are more efficient at hiring employees. Additional analysis demonstrated that a female CEO's ability to reduce inefficiency in labor investments is greater for firms with more free cash flow. Thus, the results suggest that female CEOs are better at preventing suboptimal labor investment decisions, especially when hiring employees. This association is stronger when they have greater managerial power within a company.

Signaling private information via accounting system design

Firms that wish to raise capital from external investors can signal favorable private information about their long-term prospects by publicly adopting a liberal accounting system that increases the probability of an overstated financial report. All else equal, the liberal bias deteriorates investors' ability to make efficient investment decisions, which increases the firm's cost of raising capital as investors price protect. But the fact that the firm is willing to adopt such a bias signals booming long-term prospects, which ultimately allows the firm to raise capital at more favorable terms. We also study the effects of accounting standards that require firms to generate unbiased financial reports. Unbiased reporting leads to efficient investment decisions but prevents firms from signaling private information, which reduces their incentive to improve long-term prospects. We find that giving firms discretion over reporting choices is optimal in innovative industries, whereas enforcing unbiased reporting is optimal in traditional industries.

A combined methodology based on Z-fuzzy numbers for sustainability assessment of hydrogen energy storage systems

One of the most significant ways of providing supply security in energy and effective utilization of energy sources is energy storage. Hydrogen, which is a crucial energy carrier, has received more attention in recent years due to its importance for a carbon-free economy and society. There are various physical and material-based storage methods for hydrogen storage. When examined in terms of factors that may affect the storage decision, each storage alternative has positive and negative features. In this regard, determining the most suitable hydrogen energy storage alternative by considering economic, technological, environmental, and social factors is a decision-making problem which is needed to be handled carefully to benefit from this technology in the most effective way. Since this problem requires the consideration of many criteria, some of which have dependencies among themselves or conflict with each other, and experts' judgments including uncertainty along with different degrees of reliability, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach based on z-fuzzy numbers will be an appropriate tool to make an efficient investment decision. Through that, in this study, a novel combined methodology consisting of Decision-MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), cognitive mapping, and VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) methods under z-fuzzy environment has been introduced. In the study, after the proposed z-fuzzy DEMATEL method is used to identify the dependencies among energy storage technologies’ assessment criteria, z-fuzzy cognitive mapping is employed to determine the importance degrees of criteria. Finally, the most suitable hydrogen energy storage alternative is selected by utilizing the z-fuzzy VIKOR technique. As a result of applying this methodology, storage capacity and response time have been determined as the most and the least important criteria with the weights of “0.0649” and “0.0447” respectively, and the alternative “carbon nanotubes” has been determined as the most appropriate option for Turkey. Comparative and sensitivity analyses have also been carried out to validate the proposed methodology and demonstrate the flexibility and robustness of decisions. As a result, we aimed to present a beneficial road map for researchers and policymakers studying hydrogen storage.

Does financial literacy affect investor's planned behavior as a moderator?

PurposeIn an emerging economy like India, the contribution of Indians in the stock market is very low, despite having the highest percentage of savings. The research tries to look for the variables which influence the investor's intentions to invest in the Indian stock market, by considering the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Moreover, the study incorporates financial literacy (FL) in the model to examine its influence on investors’ investment intention and also examine the moderation effect of financial literacy.Design/methodology/approachData were collected using a structured questionnaire from a sample of 393 respondents by using the convenience sampling method which is followed by the snowball sampling technique. For testing the research hypotheses, SEM and PROCESS macro v3.0 for SPSS were taken into consideration.FindingsThe results explain that factors of TPB i.e. attitude (AT), subjective norms (SNs) and perceived behavioral control (PBC) are significantly associated with investment intentions (IIs). Furthermore, along with the original components of the TPB model, Financial Literacy (FL) was also incorporated in the model, which predicted the investors' intention better. The results also stated that FL has a positive impact on AT, PBC and II. Moreover, results reveal that FL moderates the association between AT, PBC and II.Research limitations/implicationsThe study describes that financial literacy can help in increasing the participation of investors in the stock market. Therefore, in this situation, the current research permits the Security Exchange Board of India (SEBI), governments and financial institutions (FIs) to plan and design seminars or courses, programs, to enhance FL among individuals and promote individuals in making well-organized and efficient investment decisions in stock markets that will in turn upsurge individual investors participation. The study contributes to the existing literature of investment behavior by incorporating FL as a moderator. Research avoids considering actual investment behavior. The study also neglects demographic and socio-psychological factors which are the major factor that affects an investment decision. Furthermore, the research has only considered the objective dimension of FL.Originality/valueThe current research tries to incorporate FL in TPB model. Moreover, tries to examine the moderation effect of FL. The research is one of its kind as the past research neglect to examine the moderation effect of FL in relationship between AT, PBC and investment intension to investment in stock market. The research helps to understand how FL encourages investors to invest in the Indian stock market.

Long-lasting heuristics principles for efficient investment decisions

PurposeBehavioral solutions to our cognitive biases have long been studied in the literature. However, there is still ample evidence of behavioral biases in decision-making, with only limited improvement in the medium/long term even when debiasing methods are applied. The purpose of this paper is to describe how financial investors could benefit from a proactive management of emotions combined with a set of learning and decision-making heuristics to make more efficient investments in the long run.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors offer a classification of the appropriate quantitative and qualitative methodologies to use in different ecological environments. Then, the authors offer a list of detailed heuristics to be implemented as behavioral principles intended to induce more long-lasting changes than the original rules offered by the adaptive toolbox literature. Finally, the authors provide guidelines on how to embed artificial intelligence and cognitive diversity within the investment decision architecture.FindingsImprovements in decision skills involve changes that rarely succeed through a single event but through a succession of steps that must be habitualized. This paper argues that implementing a more conscious set of personal and group principles is necessary for long-lasting changes and provides guidelines on how to minimize systematic errors with adaptive heuristics. To maximize their positive effects, the principles outlined in this paper should be embedded in an architecture that fosters cognitively diverse teams. Moreover, when using artificial intelligence, the authors advise to maximize the interpretability/accuracy ratio in building decision support systems.Originality/valueThe paper proposes a theoretical reflection on the field of behavioral research and decision-making in finance, where the chief goal is to offer practical advices to investors. The literature on debiasing cognitive biases is limited to the detection and correction of immediate effects. The authors go beyond the traditional three building blocks developed by the behavioral finance literature (search rules, stopping rules and decision rules) and aim at helping investors who are interested in finding long-term solutions to their cognitive biases.

Forecasting Nestle Stock Price by using Brownian Motion Model during Pandemic Covid-19

In the modern financial market, investors have to make quick and efficient investment decisions. The problem arises when the investor does not know the right tools to use in investment decision making. Different tools can be implemented in trading strategies to predict future stock prices. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to analyse the performance of the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model in forecasting Nestle stock price by assessing the performance evaluation indicators. To analyse the stocks, two software were used, namely Microsoft Excel and Python. The model is trained for 16 weeks (4 months) of data from May to August 2019 and 2020. The simulated sample is for four weeks (1 month) which is for September 2019 and 2020. The findings show that during the Pandemic Covid-19, short-term prediction using GBM is more efficient than long-term prediction as the lowest Mean Square Error (MSE) value is at one week period. In addition, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for all GBM simulations is highly accurate as it shows that MAPE values are less than 10%, indicating that the GBM method can be used to predict Nestle stock price during an economic downturn.