Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Research Articles

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET EFFICIENCY: CASE STUDY ON INDONESIA

This research examines the foreign exchange market efficiency in Indonesia using currency pairs chosen based on Indonesia’s largest international trading partner by volume, namely, China, United States and Japan. Consequently, the currency pairs used for this research are IDR/USD, IDR/JPY, IDR/CNY. The test utilizes the Augmented Dickey Fuller procedure in determining whether the datasets contain any unit roots in which case foreign exchange price movements follow a random walk movement (non-stationary), or not (stationary). The research findings show that historical data for all three currencies follow a random walk process or the market is weak-form efficient.

Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic

The main objective of this paper is to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange (FX) markets before and during the turbulent periods surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Our efficiency tests are based on the Unbiasedness Forward Rate Hypothesis (UFRH). We use a pooled sample that contains 26 developed and emerging market currencies spanning the pre-COVID period (from November 30, 2018 to November 29, 2019), as well as the COVID period (from December 2, 2019 to November 30, 2020) as the key event which represents the time of tension. Our central finding in this paper is that FX market efficiency fails to hold during the COVID period, suggesting that the pandemic is a destabilizing event for the currency markets.

The impact of economic sanctions and the Covis-19 pandemic on the efficiency of the Russian foreign exchange market

The article analyzes the effectiveness of the Russian currency market using the multi-fractal analysis of fluctuations without a trend (MF-DFA) of a time series composed of daily values of the US dollar (USD) to Russian ruble (RUB) (USD/RUB) exchange rate for the period time (01/01/2013 — 04/01/2022), during which events occurred that led to serious changes in the Russian foreign exchange market.
 Calculations showed that the time series made up of the daily values of the USD/RUB exchange rate showed the least efficiency after the introduction of the fiscal rule and the coronavirus pandemic, and the highest comparative efficiency after the introduction of the freely floating exchange rate regime.

A Comparative Analysis of Weak and Semi-Strong Form Efficiency of Nigerian and South African Foreign Exchange Market

Foreign exchange market is said to be efficient if all available information are reflected in its exchange rates. An efficient foreign exchange translates to absence of profitable and exploitable trends which means that it is impossible for market participants or private agents to outperform the market. This study investigated the weak and semi-strong form efficiency of Nigerian and South African foreign exchange market to determine the significance of past exchange rates in predicting the present rate which is the test of weak form efficiency and it examined the co-integration relationships between selected pairs of exchange rate to determine the semi-strong efficiency. The secondary data used in this study were sourced mainly from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the South African Reserve Bank Bulletin and the oanda exchange rate websites. The data used were the inter-bank spot exchange rates of Naira and Rand to Swiss Franc, Euro, Pounds, Dollar and Yen for the period of January 2010 to December 2017. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillip Peron (PP) test were employed to determine the weak form efficiency while the Variance Decomposition, Granger Causality and Co-integration tests were used to determine the semi-strong form efficiency of both countries. The results of the study revealed that the Nigerian foreign exchange market is efficient in the weak and semi-strong form at 5% level of significance while the weak form efficiency of South African foreign exchange market revealed mixed results. The market is efficient in the weak form except for the case of Rand to Dollar and Rand to Yen which showed inefficiency. The market is equally efficient in semi-strong form. The study concluded that market participants cannot make exploitable profits by trading in both markets because all past and publicly available information are already incorporated in the prices of exchange rates. It was therefore recommended that the inter-bank market in both countries should be well monitored and managed by the regulatory authorities so as to promote the effective and efficient smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market as well as achieving a stable and realistic exchange rates.

Investigating adaptive behavior in the foreign exchange market: ZAR versus USD and CNY

This study examines the adaptive behavior of South African Rand (ZAR) exchange rate against its major trading partners, the US Dollar (USD) and the Chinese Yuan (CNY) over the period 1999-2020. The study uses a rolling parametric linear variance ratio (VR) test, nonparametric linear runs test, and non-linear Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test to determine time-varying predictability and regression analyses to assess the effect of market conditions. The results show that the foreign exchange market was found to be inefficient based on the VR tests, but efficient with very few windows of inefficiency based on the runs test and BDS test. In addition, apart from the GDP, none of the market conditions studied is associated with non-parametric linear and nonlinear predictabilities. The study draws two main conclusions. Firstly, the South African foreign exchange market is adaptively efficient. Secondly, foreign exchange market efficiency is primarily driven by the level of economic growth. Practically, it will be difficult for investors to exploit the few windows of predictability in the South African foreign exchange market by focusing mainly on the market conditions studied.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments.

The Peculiarities of Foreign Exchange and Insurance Markets

Foreign exchange risk is one of the most important components of the financial market. Like any other financial risk, it can be managed or avoided. Financial risk management requires the relevant knowledge and resources and only specialized financial institutions are engaged in doing so. Thee commercial banks do not accept foreign exchange risks, their assets and liabilities are denominated in the same currency. Therefore, it is recommended for households and businesses to avoid the currency risk. People's behavior is different during the sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. There is no ideal tactic for behavior. However, we would like to share some basic tips to help you reduce your expected financial risks; At the same time, the undesirable attitude characteristic of the period of strong fluctuations in the course will become clearer and more preventive. We hope that the information presented in such circumstances will help you to make the right decision. Keywords: Foreign exchange and insurance market efficiency; Exchange rate risk insurance; Involvement of financial instruments

Efficiency of Tanzania's foreign exchange market

AbstractThis paper examines market efficiency in the foreign exchange market in Tanzania. A nonlinear Markov switching model was used to analyse the Tanzanian shilling against the US dollar spanning from 2 January 2009 to 30 April 2020. The estimation period was 2 January 2009–28 May 2019, and the post‐sample forecast period was 28 May 2019–30 April 2020. From the results of the two‐state Markov switching model, we define State 1, which is more volatile, as the inefficient state and State 2, which is less volatile, as the efficient one. In the unconditional probabilities from the Markov switching model, the exchange rate has a 94% probability in the inefficient state, which indicates that 94% of all speculators fully extract information when predicting future exchange rates, while 30% of all investors do not; suggesting that the foreign exchange market undergoes conditions of efficiency and inefficiency. In addition, findings showed that the exchange rate is expected to spend approximately 18 days in regime 1 and 8 days in regime 2. The policy implication of these findings is that foreign exchange market participants should pay attention to regimes and underlying market conditions when designing and applying their investment strategies.

A machine learning approach to forecasting carry trade returns

ABSTRACT Carry trade refers to a risky arbitrage in interest rate differentials between two currencies. Persistent excess carry trade returns pose a challenge to foreign exchange market efficiency. Using a data set of 10 currencies between 1990 and 2017, we find (i) a machine learning model, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, forecast carry trade returns better than linear and threshold models and other machine learning models; and (ii) excess carry trade returns deteriorate after the 2007–2008 global financial crisis in all model forecasts, indicating that the uncovered interest rate parity may still hold in the long run.

A Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Carry Trade Returns

Carry trade refers to a risky arbitrage in interest rate differentials between two currencies. Persistent excess carry trade returns pose a challenge to foreign exchange market efficiency. Using a data set of ten currencies between 1990 and 2017, we find: (i) a machine learning model, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, forecast carry trade returns better than linear and threshold regressions based on economic fundamentals; and (ii) excess carry trade returns deteriorate after the 2007--2008 global financial crisis in LSTM networks and other model forecasts, indicating that the uncovered interest rate parity may still hold in the long run.

Test of Weak Form Efficiency and Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market Volatility

Beside the stated concerns for this study, a lot of scholarly articles abound on the test of weak form efficiency and capital market. For that, the researchers deemed it fit to test if the Nigerian foreign exchange market follows a random walk or not. This and others led to this study, test of weak form efficiency and volatility of the Nigerian foreign exchange market with the following parametric tools; Augumented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Pairwise Granger Causality test, Regression test, Normality/Random Walk test, ARCH-GARCH Model, the Autocorrelation cum partial autocorrelation method and Variance Ratio Test. After the analysis, all the results confirmed that the Nigerian foreign exchange market does not follow a random walk, hence weak form inefficient. No wonder the exchange rate business in Nigeria is very lucrative. The dealers always make abnormal profit at every slightest opportunity. Again, the result of the EGARCH framework found that volatility exacts negative impact on Nigerian foreign exchange market and that exchange rate volatility in Nigerian foreign exchange market is persistent. Again, that there is no asymmetric effect in the Nigerian foreign exchange market. Consequent upon the findings, the researchers suggest that the regulatory authorities of the Nigerian foreign exchange market tighten up their belt to enhancing the efficiency of the market. Again, the authority must do everything to stabilize the naira to ensure efficiency in the foreign market in Nigeria. Keywords: Weak form, Foreign Exchange Market, Parametric tool, Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/11-16-14 Publication date: August 31 st 2020

Foreign exchange market efficiency and the global financial crisis: Fundamental versus technical information

This paper examines whether the 2007 - 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) played any role in changing the state of efficiency for the foreign exchange markets. For comparison purposes, I assess market efficiency based on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis (FUH) as well as the profitability of simple technical trading rules in the form of moving average, momentum, and relative strength index. A general finding from my comparative analysis (the FUH vis-à-vis technical trading rules) reveals that the GFC causes a time variation in the performance of currency markets, but both tests predict opposite conclusions on the direction of the change in the state of market performance. This evidence emphasizes the importance of qualifying the difference between fundamental and technical information when investigating the efficiency of foreign exchange markets.

A Study on the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Korea, Japan and China

Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 1327 observations each of the daily closing exchange rates of the three currencies against the US dollar for the sample period from January 1, 2015 to January 31, 2020, based on the tests for autocorrelation, unit root tests and GARCH-M(1,1) model estimation. Findings - We have found that the autocorrelation test indicates the lack of autocorrelation and unit root test confirms the existence of unit roots in all times series of the three currencies, respectively. The GARCH-M(1,1) test results, however, suggest that the exchange rates do not follow a random walk process. In conclusion, the recent spot foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China are believed to be informationally inefficient. Research implications or Originality - These findings have practical implications for both individual and institutional investors to be able to obtain excess returns on their investments in the foreign exchange markets in three countries by using appropriate risk management, portfolio strategy, technical analysis, etc. This study provides the first empirical examination on the foreign exchange market efficiency in the three biggest economies in Asia including China, which has been excluded from research due to its exchange rate regime.

Currency Market Efficiency Revisited: Evidence from Korea

Keywords: foreign exchange market efficiency; forward rate unbiased hypothesis; covered interest rate parity; central banks; central banks’ policies

Evolving Efficiency of Exchange Rate Movement: An Evidence from Indian Foreign Exchange Market

This study empirically verifies the evolving and time-varying efficiency of Indian foreign exchange market using the framework of adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). Whether market efficiency is time varying or static, and if time varying, identification of possible events causing such time-varying efficiency are the two major agenda of this study. We employ a set of recent methods which are robust and possess stronger power properties. Moreover, we follow a fixed-length rolling window approach to explore time-varying nature of market efficiency and to avoid data-snooping bias. Our overall findings suggest that market efficiency is not an all-or-nothing condition; it varies over time. We also find that episodes of efficiency coincide with emergence of major events and market microstructure issues. Particularly, changes in exchange rate regime, financial turbulence, major central bank interventions and trade volume are the prominent causes for time-varying efficiency in INR–USD exchange rate. The evidence of swing between efficiency and inefficiency can prompt currency traders to exploit arbitrage opportunities that emerge with different market conditions.