Effects Of Unexpected Changes Research Articles

The SNAP Cycle and Diabetes Management During a One-Time Change in Disbursement Schedule.

The 2018-2019 federal government partial shutdown resulted in a one-time disruption to the usual disbursement schedule of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits nationwide. We assessed the relationship between this disruption and hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia medical encounters among beneficiaries with diabetes. To estimate whether the one-time change in benefit disbursement affected the monthly cycle of hyperglycemia or hypoglycemia encounter rates, we used linked administrative Medicaid claims and SNAP disbursement data from West Virginia in a fixed-effects model with interactions between week of the month and the two months of interest-January and February 2019. We controlled for week, month, year, and county effects as well as individual characteristics, and we clustered SEs by individual. We found that the early disbursement of SNAP benefits in January 2019 resulted in a spike in hyperglycemia four times the rate in a typical month. Further, we found a decrease in both hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia in late February. Our findings suggest that the early distribution of benefits led to a temporary increase in food consumption among West Virginia Medicaid beneficiaries with diabetes. Findings from late February also imply that individuals may have a way to prepare for reduced food resources. These results shed new light on the effects of unexpected changes to the timing of safety net payments as well as an understanding of unintended consequences of government shutdowns.

The effects of unexpected changes to content delivery on student learning outcomes: A psychological contract perspective during the COVID-19 era.

Meta‐analyses suggest that student learning outcomes (SLOs) are comparable across modalities of instruction. None of these studies examined how unmet student expectations (here, unexpected changes in course delivery) might increase perceptions of student–instructor‐university psychological contract breaches (PCBs) and, ultimately, perceived SLOs within and across modalities. The COVID‐19 pandemic provided an opportunity to study these potential relationships because many residential institutions of higher education opted into, or were required to, offer distance and/or blended learning to accommodate COVID‐19 safety mandates. This study sampled undergraduate students (n = 155) from a university, which, before the pandemic, offered exclusively face‐to‐face classroom instruction. During the Fall 2020 semester, however, this university offered three modalities of instruction: (1) face‐to‐face; (2) blended learning; and (3) distance education. The results of this study suggest that perceived PCBs by instructors and universities negatively influence underling indices of student achievement in terms of motivation, engagement, and learning within and across modalities of instruction. Given this and near universal decrements in student enrollment and retention in institutions of higher education, it is important for universities and instructors to understand, explicitly and transparently negotiate, and meet student expectations to improve student progression to graduation and maintain competitiveness among similar institutions.

The effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on mutual fund investing

We study the effects of unexpected changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy on the performance and flows of mutual funds investing in domestic and international financial markets over the recent period of unconventional monetary policy. Taking an agnostic approach on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, we find that monetary policy shocks have a direct effect on fund performance and flow dynamics, and that the effect of these surprises differs by investment strategy. Results show that an unexpected tightening of the stance of policy is associated with negative performance and outflows from fixed-income funds, in particular those investing in international, government and investment grade bond markets. Results also point to a negative relationship between equity fund performance and policy tightening. Moreover, our findings indicate that Federal Reserve’s expansionary balance sheet policy (i.e. large-scale asset purchases) has a strong positive effect on the performance and flows of equity funds, especially on those investing in emerging markets.

The effects of unexpected changes in demand on the performance of emergency departments.

Crowding in emergency departments (EDs) is increasing in many health systems. Previous studies of the relationship between crowding and care quality are limited by the use of data from single hospitals, a focus on particular patient groups, a focus on a narrow set of quality measures, and use of crowding measures which induce bias from unobserved hospital and patient characteristics. Using data from 139 hospitals covering all major EDss in England, we measure crowding using quasi-exogenous variation in the volume of EDs attendances and examine its impacts on indicators of performance across the entire EDs care pathway. We exploit variations from expected volume estimated using high-dimensional fixed effects capturing hospital-specific variation in attendances by combinations of month and hour-of-the-week. Unexpected increases in attendance volume result in substantially longer waiting times, lower quantity and complexity of care, more patients choosing to leave without treatment, changes in referral and discharge decisions, but only small increases in reattendances and no increase in mortality. Causal bounds under potential omitted variable bias are narrow and exclude zero for the majority of outcomes. Results suggest that physician and patient responses may largely mitigate the impacts of demand increases on patient outcomes in the short-run.

A risk-based optimization framework for integrated supply chains using genetic algorithm and artificial neural networks

Modern supply chains are complicated networks that stretch over different geographical locations, which make them vulnerable to a variety of risks. An effective supply chain management provides a competitive advantage by reducing overhead costs and delays in product deliveries. To cope with internal and external risks, an integrated planning scheme can effectively adjust supply chain network operations and minimize negative effects of unexpected changes and failures. This paper proposes a risk-based optimization framework that handles supply chain's strategic, tactical, and operational decisions. A supply chain is considered as a network of suppliers, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, and markets. The proposed model deals with uncertainties associated with demands, facility interruptions, lead times, and failures in supply, production, and distribution channels. To study more realistic supply chain operations, delays uncertainties are also included in the model. The structural design, communication between different centers, and inventory decisions are determined based on the risk perspective of the decision maker. To solve the proposed model, a new genetic algorithm is designed which is integrated with artificial neural network that learns from previous plans and search for better ones by minimizing any mismatch between supply and demand. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is investigated by comparing its results with those obtained from traditional techniques and regular GA. The results show that including adjustable tactical plans and incorporating learning mechanism considerably reduces inventory level and increases the profit level in supply chain systems.

The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty

This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms’ earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms’ export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity.

Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain

We provide additional evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we gather and construct a wide range of proxy indicators of economic and economic policy uncertainty from Spain. We distinguish between the relative merits of different types of measures based on (i) the volatility of financial markets; (ii) economic analysts’ disagreement; and (iii) economic policy uncertainty. We show that the first and the third block of measures are the most relevant to grasp the negative effects of unexpected changes in uncertainty on aggregate economic developments, as measured by real GDP. In addition, we find that economic policy uncertainty and financial uncertainty shocks produce visible negative effects on private consumption. The negative responses on capital goods investments are initially bigger in magnitude but vanish more quickly.

The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty

We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that increases in TPU reduce investment and activity using both firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data. We interpret the empirical results through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. In the model as in the data, news and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity.

Measuring Economic and Economic Policy Uncertainty, and their Macroeconomic Effects: The Case of Spain

We provide additional evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we gather and construct a wide range of proxy indicators of economic and economic policy uncertainty from Spain. We distinguish between the relative merits of different types of measures based on: (i) the volatility of financial markets; (ii) economic analysts’ disagreement; (iii) economic policy uncertainty. We show that the first and the third block of measures are the most relevant to grasp the negative effects of unexpected changes in uncertainty on aggregate economic developments, as measured by real GDP. In addition, we find that economic policy uncertainty and financial uncertainty shocks produce visible negative effects on private consumption. The negative responses on capital goods investments are initially bigger in magnitude but vanish more quickly.

The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Mutual Fund Investing

We study the effects of unexpected changes in the stance of monetary policy on mutual fund performance and allocation decisions over the recent period of unconventional U.S. monetary policy. Taking an agnostic approach on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on mutual fund investing, we find that monetary policy shocks have a direct effect on fund performance and flow dynamics, and that the effect of these surprises differs by investment strategy. The results show that an unexpected tightening of the stance of policy is associated with negative performance and outflows from bond funds, in particular those investing in government, investment grade, and international bonds. Results also point to a negative relationship between equity fund performance and policy tightening. Moreover, Federal Reserve’s balance sheet policy (i.e. large-scale asset purchases) have a strong positive effect on equity fund returns, especially on those investing in emerging markets.

Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases more in the ZLB period than in the normal period. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62)

Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks

This paper studies empirical facts regarding the effects of unexpected changes in aggregate macroeconomic fiscal policies on consumers that differ depending on individual characteristics. We use data from the Consumption Expenditure Survey to estimate individual‐level responses and multipliers for government spending. We find that unexpected fiscal shocks have substantially different effects on consumers depending on their income and age levels: the wealthiest individuals tend to behave according to predictions of standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, whereas the poorest ones behave according to standard IS–LM (non‐Ricardian) models, most likely due to credit constraints. Furthermore, government spending policy shocks tend to decrease consumption inequality.

Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period, and 0.6 outside of it. We argue that these results are not driven by the amount of slack in the economy. A simple New Keynesian model can reproduce some features of our empirical findings if the ZLB period is caused by a deflationary trap and government spending is not too persistent.

Family Shocks and Academic Achievement

Disruptions in family life can take many forms, but all have the potential to impact student learning. With school administrative data matched to birth records, I estimate the effect of unexpected changes in the home environment, or family shocks, on achievement. Identification comes from siblings observed in the same year. I find that family shocks are at least as important as teacher assignment for student learning. Furthermore, they have a relatively larger impact on students from affluent families; time use evidence indicates that this is likely because affluent parents are more involved in their children's learning.

Different effects of unexpected changes in environmental conditions on prepulse inhibition in rats and humans

The reduction of the startle response to an auditory stimulus caused by the presentation of another stimulus of lower intensity closely preceding it, a phenomenon known as prepulse inhibition (PPI), can be modulated by changes in dopaminergic activity. Schmajuk, Larrauri, De la Casa, and Levin (2009) demonstrated that this dopaminergic modulation of PPI in rats can be influenced by manipulating the experimental context, specifically by introducing changes in the ambient lighting condition that include novel elements. In this paper we analyze the effects of introducing changes in context illumination on PPI in male rats (Experiment 1) and humans (Experiment 2). The results with rats showed a reduction of PPI when the illumination condition switched from dark to light, but not from light to dark. In the experiment with human participants the reduction of PPI occurred for both changes in illumination conditions. The animal experiment results are interpreted in terms of competing exploratory behavior that appear when the context is illuminated after the dark–light transition; while in the case of human participants a perceptual and/or attentional mechanism after both illumination transitions is proposed, which may result in a reduced processing of the prepulse and subsequent lower PPI.

Effects of unexpected changes in visual scenes on the human acoustic startle response and prepulse inhibition

Prepulse inhibition (PPI) refers to the process wherein startle responses to salient stimuli (e.g., startling sound pulses) are attenuated by the presentation of another stimulus (e.g., a brief pre-pulse) immediately before the startling stimulus. Accordingly, deficits in PPI reflect atypical sensorimotor gating that is linked to neurobehavioral systems underlying responsivity to emotionally evocative cues. Little is known about the effects of changes in visual contextual information in PPI among humans. In this study, the effects of introducing unexpected changes in the visual scenes presented on a computer monitor on the human auditory startle response and PPI were assessed in young adults. Based on our animal data showing that unexpected transitions from a dark to a light environment reduce the startle response and PPI in rats after the illumination transition, it was hypothesized that novel changes in visual scenes would produce similar effects in humans. Results show that PPI decreased when elements were added to or removed from visual scenes, and that this effect declined after repeated presentations of the modified scene, supporting the interpretation that the PPI reduction was due to novel information being processed. These findings are the first to demonstrate that novel visual stimuli can impair sensorimotor gating of auditory stimuli in humans.

Eurozone Stock Market Reactions to Unexpected ECB Monetary Policy Announcements

To examine the Eurozone stock market reactions to European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcement surprises, we study the effect of unexpected changes in the ECB's main refinancing rate on aggregate and sectorial Eurozone equity returns. We also analyse the results according to varying business conditions. We estimate unexpected changes on the basis of the market's expectations released in the financial press just before the monetary policy announcement. Using an event study methodology for the 1999-2008 period, we found that the impact of ECB monetary policy surprise is not significant for Euro-zone stock markets. However, we find a significant stock market reaction around unexpected ECB monetary policy announcements when we account for business conditions.

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on an Oil-exporting Economy

We estimate the effects of unexpected changes in oil prices on output for the case of Venezuela, an oil-exporting economy. Following Hamilton (2003), Lee et al. (1995), and Mork (1989), we estimate measures of oil shocks and determine the effect of these shocks on the Venezuelan economy. Our results suggest that oil shocks have had positive and significant effects on output growth in Venezuela during the period 1984:1—2008:3. In line with previous findings for other countries, our results suggest that the Venezuelan economy is more responsive to increases in oil prices than to unexpected decreases. Our results are robust to an alternative measure of oil price shocks derived by using Kilian’s (2009) exogenous OPEC oil production shock series.

Industrial production, volatility, and the supply chain

The issue of production volatility is important to firms interested in managing their supply chain. This paper empirically estimates the volatility of industrial production using the GARCH and EGARCH time series models. Three questions are addressed: Can volatility be predicted? Is the effect of unexpected changes in production on volatility asymmetric? And, how persistent is volatility following a production disturbance? The results indicate that production volatility is time varying and can be predicted in the majority of cases examined, and that overestimates of production lead to greater increases in volatility than do underestimates.

Job matching, unexpected obligations and retirement decisions

Our objective is to investigate the effect of unexpected changes in worker financial obligations on retirement decisions. We considered throughout this paper that a firm is unable to determine the right moment in which a particular worker should retire. We found that wage rates decrease when a worker obtains the right to retire and that retirement benefits should be more attractive than the unemployment insurance in order to have workers migrating from unemployment to retirement, while retirement benefits do not need to be higher than wages to have worker flows from employment to retirement. We also verified that the more difficult it gets to obtain the right to retire, the higher the job creation flow shall be and that worker reservation obligations have an ambiguous effect on retirement rates.